san francisco economic & residential update · 350k 360k 370k 380k 390k 400k 410k 420k 430k...
TRANSCRIPT
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San Francisco Economic & Residential Update
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YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES AND PRICE GROWTH*
SAN FRANCISCO CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE
Median CondoMiniuM Resale PRiCe $1,097,500 +15.5%
CondoMiniuM Resale Closings 822 -1.9%
*For three months ending in July 31, 2015 compared to same period in 2014
Source: SFARMLS
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Year
Mor
tgag
e (3
0−Ye
ar F
ixed
)
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Source: FRED
CURRENT RATE4.1%
HISTORICAL 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES
RATE IN 198118.5%
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Year
350k
360k
370k
380k
390k
400k
410k
420k
430k
440k
450k
460k
470k
480k
490k
500k
510k
520k
530k
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: EDD
YEAR-OVER-YEAR JOB GROWTH
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Tota
l Uni
ts
Number of Units Available
New Construction
Resales
Source: SFARMLS, Polaris Pacific
SAN FRANCISCO ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Year
Num
ber o
f Mon
ths
0
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: SFARMLS
MRI1.8 MONTHS
SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY
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0
100
200
300
400
YearYear
$0k
$100k
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600k
$700k
$800k
$900k
$1000k
$1100k
$1200k
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ResalesMedian Price
Source: SFARMLS
MEDIAN PRICE $1,097,500
SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES
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Quarter
1Q05 2Q06 3Q07 4Q08 1Q10 2Q11 3Q12 4Q13 1Q15 2Q16 3Q17 4Q18 1Q20
Ren
ts
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
$2,800
$3,200
$3,600
$4,000
Source: Axiometrics
FORECAST
SAN FRANCISCO RENTS
Q2 2015 CURRENT RENT$3,045
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Map of MarketNumber of Units: 3,168(Source: Polaris Pacific)
3000 1,000
188
776
81,011
6347
91,298
20
50
40
10135
3210
Map of MarketNumber of Units: 8,889(Source: Polaris Pacific)
3000 1,000
10
70
8198
6491
98,113
20
587
40
100
30
CONDOMINIUMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION APARTMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONTOTAL NUMBER: 3,168 TOTAL NUMBER: 8,889
SAN FRANCISCO FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY BY DISTRICT
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LUMINA• Developer: Tishman Speyer• 656 units• Under Construction / Currently Selling• 2016 Completion
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PARK 181• Developer: Jay Paul Company• 67 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion
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THE PACIFIC• Developer: Trumark Urban Co.• 76 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion
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ROCKWELL• Developer: Oyster Development• 260 Units• Under Construction / Currently Selling• 2016 Completion
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72 TOWNSEND• Developer: KB Home• 74 Units• Under Construction / Currently Selling• 2015 Completion
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MISSION BAY BLOCK 1• Developer: CIM Group• 350 Units• Under Construction• 2017 Completion
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1450 FRANKLIN• Developer: Village Properties• 67 Units• Under Construction• 2016 Completion
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KNOX• Developer: Trumark Urban Co.• 91 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion
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ROWAN• Developer: Trumark Urban Co.• 70 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion
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ONE FRANKLIN• Developer: JS Sullivan Development• 35 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion
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T A R G E T A U D I E N C E
G E N X M I L L E N I A L S
I N V E S T O R S P O W E R C O U P L E S
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T R E N D
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T R E N D
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T R E N D
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L U X E
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P E N T H O U S E
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M O D U L A R C A B I N E T P R O G R A M M I N G
MODULAR DESIGN PROGRAMMING
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P E N T H O U S E
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M O D U L A R C A B I N E T P R O G R A M M I N G
MODULAR DESIGN PROGRAMMING
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S K Y L O U N G E
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S K Y L O U N G E
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S K Y L O U N G E
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