rotmans and de vries (1997) perpsectives on global change: the targets approach
DESCRIPTION
TARGETS Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for Sustainability RIVM, NL. Rotmans and de Vries (1997) Perpsectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach. Problems with current practice Models not treated as a valuable resource - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Rotmans and de Vries (1997)Perpsectives on Global Change:The TARGETS Approach
TARGETSTool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for SustainabilityRIVM, NL
Problems with current practice
Models not treated as a valuable resource
Models need a lot of effort to construct- assemble the science- write the code (most of which is support code)
Model structure not accessible- difficulty of getting science from the code- no guarantee that paper matches model
Model variables not linked to standard-naming schemes, ontologies etc
Hard to compare alternative models
Models tend to be locked in to a single paradigm (System Dynamics, agent-based, Bayesian network, general-equailibrium, optimisation...)
It doesn't have to be like this....
The System Biology community
SBML: a community standard for representing biological pathway models in XML.A rich collection (200+) of tools for processing SBML modelsA database of 400+ 'curated' and 400+ 'non-curated' modelsA community which discusses SBML developmentsMajor funding from EU, NSF, BBSRC...
Meeting this challenge for integrated modelling
We need a declarative modelling approach (like SBML)- so we can display models visually;- so we can have computer support for building models;- so we can automatically compare, transform, convert models;- so we can link model variables to community ontologies.
We need to be able to handle multiple modelling paradigms- Not just separately, but within a single model.- Example: System Dynamics, spatial modelling and agent-based modelling- Reference platform: Simile [Disclosure]
LINTUL - a simple butrepresentative crop model
System Dynamics modelling
Simonovic's Anemi - N
2O
Simonovic's Anemi - ocean temperature
Objects/disaggregation
Spatial modelling
“Agent-based”
FLORES - Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System
Acknowledgements: DFID;CIFOR; Jerry Vanclay
Back to the future...