Complexity, Uncertainty & Surprises

Jan Rotmans Jan Rotmans

CopenhagenCopenhagen, 15-05-2007, 15-05-2007

Complexity

arises from increasing interaction among:arises from increasing interaction among:

(i)(i) actors of different kinds that try to steeractors of different kinds that try to steer

and influence each other at different levelsand influence each other at different levels

(ii)(ii) interwovenness of interwovenness of economiceconomic, , technologicaltechnological,,

ecological ecological and and institutional institutional processesprocesses

(iii) autonomous trends and processes at different(iii) autonomous trends and processes at different

scalesscales

Surprises

symptoms of complexitysymptoms of complexity

analysing complex patterns across domains, scalesanalysing complex patterns across domains, scales

provides insights into seeds of changeprovides insights into seeds of change

in some cases we we can anticipate surprisesin some cases we we can anticipate surprises

in that sense we can prepare for uncertain futuresin that sense we can prepare for uncertain futures

Lessons from VISIONS projectLessons from VISIONS project

Surprises

multiple definitionsmultiple definitions

‘‘unexpected’ but related to perception and expectationunexpected’ but related to perception and expectation

• unexpected discrete events unexpected discrete events - oil shocks of 1973, natural catastrophes, political coups oil shocks of 1973, natural catastrophes, political coups

• discontinuities in long-term trendsdiscontinuities in long-term trends- decoupling of economic growth and resource use decoupling of economic growth and resource use

• sudden emergence of new information/knowledgesudden emergence of new information/knowledge- stratospheric ozone hole, discovery of asbest-related stratospheric ozone hole, discovery of asbest-related

cancercancer

Surprises

systemic classification of surprisessystemic classification of surprisesSchneider (1997)Schneider (1997)

• unimaginable surprises unimaginable surprises - Jules Verne’s journey to centre of the EarthJules Verne’s journey to centre of the Earth

• imaginable surprises that are improbableimaginable surprises that are improbable- global nuclear warglobal nuclear war

• imaginable surprises that are probableimaginable surprises that are probable- massive migration due to ecological disastermassive migration due to ecological disaster

• certain surprises certain surprises - earthquakes earthquakes

trends

events

structural changes

legislationdemography

climate change

power constellations

daily newsAl Gore movie,

weather extremesletter of Tony Blair

conjunctural trendslifestyle changes

liberalizationprivatization

social relations

paradigms

complexity iceberg

spirit of times

trends

events

structural changes

increased American international dominance

rise of political islam

terrorist attacksWTC’93, US embassadies ’98,

USS-Cole 2000

Gulf War 1991Increased anti-American sentiment

invasion of Aghanistan 1979emergence of Al Qaeda

9-11 ‘unraveling’

globalization

myths of US-culture

Simplexity concept

concept that represents simplification of complexityconcept that represents simplification of complexity

but is still indicative for complexitybut is still indicative for complexity

arises from insight that complex systems can arises from insight that complex systems can

display simple behavior [display simple behavior [complexity sciencecomplexity science]]

[[cchaos theoryhaos theory: simple systems can display complex : simple systems can display complex behavior]behavior]

to handle complexity for decision-makersto handle complexity for decision-makers

Complexity syndromevariant on Schellnhuber’s syndrome conceptvariant on Schellnhuber’s syndrome concept

narrative exploration of complexity patternsnarrative exploration of complexity patterns

• butterfly syndromebutterfly syndromesimple event causes complex effectssimple event causes complex effects

global virusglobal virus

• seemingly disastrous syndromeseemingly disastrous syndromepotential disruptive event is cancelled outpotential disruptive event is cancelled out

financial crisis in South-East Asia (1997)financial crisis in South-East Asia (1997)

• multi-syndromemulti-syndromecomplex action-reaction patternscomplex action-reaction patterns

water crisis in relation to floods water crisis in relation to floods

Transition

fundamental change of structure, culture andfundamental change of structure, culture and

practices in societal (sub)systempractices in societal (sub)system

• structure:structure: institutional settinginstitutional setting• culture: culture: dominant perspectivedominant perspective• practices:practices: routines, rules, habitsroutines, rules, habits

incumbent structure, culture and practices are brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices are broken

down, which requires time to overcome resistancedown, which requires time to overcome resistance

Multi-Phase concept

Take off

Acceleration

Pre-development phase

Stabilisation

time

Indicator of societal change

Multi-Phase concept

Multi-level concept

Macro-levelautonomous trends, paradigms, slow developments

Meso-levelregime: dominant structures, cultures and practices (but also niche regimes)

Micro-level fast developments: innovative ideas, projects, techniques, niche actors

Transition Futures of Europe

Demographic transitionDemographic transition

• 1 out of 2 Europeans will be older than 50 years1 out of 2 Europeans will be older than 50 years

• 25% of Europeans will be 65+25% of Europeans will be 65+

• 1/3 of population exists of migrants1/3 of population exists of migrants

• 1/3 of income of Europeans spent on health care1/3 of income of Europeans spent on health care

• 20% of European employees in health care sector 20% of European employees in health care sector

Transition Futures of Europe

Geographic transitionGeographic transition

from countries to transnational regionsfrom countries to transnational regions

• transnational regions motors of new Europetransnational regions motors of new Europe

• quality of life is major attractor for companies to investquality of life is major attractor for companies to invest

in regions in regions

• environment, space and safety become core valuesenvironment, space and safety become core values

(incentives) for regional economic development(incentives) for regional economic development

Transition Futures of Europe

Social transitionSocial transition

from consuming to participative civic societyfrom consuming to participative civic society

• self-organizing capacity of society will significantly increaseself-organizing capacity of society will significantly increase

• many citizens will develop own initiatives many citizens will develop own initiatives

• informed citizens play an important role in new governance informed citizens play an important role in new governance structures structures

• local communities engaged in sustainable use of resourceslocal communities engaged in sustainable use of resources

Uncertainties

within MATISSE we developed storylines behind the EEA-baseline

scenario for Europe in 2030

we detected structural uncertainties that were sources of potential

disagreement among experts

for the structural uncertainties we introduced bifurcations so that

we ended with a ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ variant of the baseline

institutions, health care, migration, infrastructure

technology, trade, environmental pollution, import/export

NEGATIVE BASELINE 2030 POSITIVE BASELINE 2030‘OLD & DENSE EUROPE’ ‘MOTIVATED EUROPE’

HEALTH CARE

EDUCATION-MIGRATION

INSTITUTIONS

Weakening Government and no additonal environmental policies

Stronger Government and additionalenvironmental policies and subsidies

Flaws in educational system while more skilled people are needed: 1. Ageing population 2. Change to knowledge based economy>> Migrants suffer most

Investments in educational system leading to a paradigm shift: >> motivation to compete with white collars >> fair chances for migrants on labour market

Increasing pressure on health care sector due to ageing population

Overquestioning of health care leads toparadigm shift: from ‘parens for children’ to ‘children for parents’.

NEGATIVE BASELINE 2030 POSITIVE BASELINE 2030‘OLD & DENSE EUROPE’ ‘MOTIVATED EUROPE’

TECHNOLOGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

POLLUTIONIncreasing [air] pollution:1. Individualization >> car ownership per capita increases >> growing amount of construction waste >> increase energy demand >> expansion settlement patterns and infrastr.2. Prefer living in green areas>>commuting distance increases

Decreasing [air] pollution in spite of intensifying transport: >> stimulating public transport for commuting >> R&D for technological break throughs in cars >> attractive cities due to city planning >> carsharing & car-free cities.

Reversing the trend of moving to green areas:City centers become THE place forliving, working and caring as all facilities are available in the city centre

System innovations in sustainable modes of transport: >> hydrogen cars >> gasoline pressured engines

Slow penetration of renewables and no system innovations in sustainable modesof transport

City centers become THE place for Business Centers while green areas become THE place for living.

Insights

from ULYSSES, VISIONS, FIRMA, MATISSEfrom ULYSSES, VISIONS, FIRMA, MATISSE

• surprises are often symptoms of complexity that might besurprises are often symptoms of complexity that might be

detected in a rather early stagedetected in a rather early stage

• we cannot avoid or ignore complexity we cannot avoid or ignore complexity but also not command-andbut also not command-and

-control it. However, we can try to subtly manage-control it. However, we can try to subtly manage

• the concept of transition is useful to project future pathways thatthe concept of transition is useful to project future pathways that

are characterized by path dependenciesare characterized by path dependencies

• structural uncertainties cannot be resolved but can be relatedstructural uncertainties cannot be resolved but can be related

to multiple perspectivesto multiple perspectives