rosswall - food security - 2012-12-17

Food security as influenced by land-use and climate changes

Thomas Rosswall Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel

UN MDG Summit September 2010

"It is clear that improvements in the lives of the poor have been unacceptably slow, and some hard-won gains are being eroded by the climate, food and economic crises"

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in the foreword to the Millennium Development Goals Report to the Summit.

Global Food Hunger Index

17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 3

Decrease 2012 vs. 1990

17 December 2012 4 Belmont Forum

Consumption and emissions


Changing consumption patterns


Agriculture and biodiversity

Ref.


Food and planetary boundaries


(Duncan Green, Oxfam, 2011)

Global change and food research

1992-2003

2001-2011

2009-2021


The big disconnect

Development and global change have been addressed, researched, and funded as unrelated issues

Major conclusion of ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg Workshop 2005


Global

Integrated Siloed

Local

Business As Usual

Development Research

Business As Usual Global Change

D4G Development

for Global Change

Adapted from Sara Farley, The World Bank, ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg meeting (2005).

The Opportunity


The big disconnect

Development and global change have been addressed, researched, and funded as unrelated issues

Major conclusion of ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg Workshop 2005

Future Earth is the response to the need for international, integrated, collaborative and solution-orientated research to respond to the challenges of global environmental change and sustainable development. Future Earth Research for Global Sustainability, December 2012


Multi-Scale Approach

Targeting

Validation

Regional diagnosis of constraints and opportunities

Exploring and supporting local interventions

Food system cross-scale

analyses

High order, strategic opportunities Across geographies Targeting and stratification Immediate investment decisions plus regional capability building

Potential for cross-scale linkages Particular technologies Particular contexts Technologies targeted to region, market, farm, livelihood Solution-focused

Earth system science

Development science

M. Stafford Smith (2010) 17 December 2012 14 Belmont Forum

CCAFS a collaborative initiative

2009

2013


CCAFS objectives

1. Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation, risk management and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.

2. Support agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.


Where CCAFS works


The CCAFS framework Adapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: 1.Adaptation to progressive climate change 2.Adaptation through managing climate risk 3.Pro-poor climate change mitigation

Improved Environmental

Health Improved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity

4. Integration for decision making Linking Knowledge with Action Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and

Planning Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis


Theme 1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change


Adaptation to progressive climate change

>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

Portal to share knowledge on agricultural adaptation and mitigation

What CCAFS output?

knowledge and scientific knowledge; connects broad partnership base

Why is it useful?

1

www.amkn.org 17 December 2012 20 Belmont Forum

http://www.amkn.org

Adaptation to progressive climate change

>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool

Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

What CCAFS output?

Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

Why is it useful?

1


Theme 2. Managing Climate

Risk 17 December 2012 22 Belmont Forum

Managing climate risk >> Spotlight on: Current local practices

Surveys of current risk management knowledge and practices

What CCAFS outputs?

To build on real assets; identify transferable technologies and institutions

Why is it useful?

2


Managing climate risk >> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data

Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO

What CCAFS outputs?

Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting food crisis, etc.

Why is it useful?

2


Theme 3. Pro-poor mitigation


Pro-poor mitigation >> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research

Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa

What CCAFS outputs?

Direct link between research and action Strong demand from carbon project managers.

Why is it useful?

3


Pro-poor mitigation

>> Spotlight on: State-of-the-art agricultural mitigation

Earthscan book of current knowledge Lessons from REDD+ for agriculture

What CCAFS outputs?

Maximizing opportunities, avoiding pitfalls in future systems for ag mitigation

Why are they useful?

3


Theme 4. Integration for decision making 17 December 2012 28 Belmont Forum

Integration for decision making

>> Spotlight on: Baseline survey

36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households

What CCAFS outputs?

Sites for participatory action research Guidance for research foci Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts

Why is it useful?

4


Integration for decision making

>> Spotlight on:

A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe

What CCAFS outputs?

To aid planning & drive agricultural impact models to inform resource allocation

Why is it useful?

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/

4




2013 CCAFS budget


Income: CGIAR Consortium $37.3 million Remaining CRP funds $ 1.7 million Bilateral funds $17.8 million Total $56.8 million Expenditure Theme 1 Adapt. progressive change 40% Theme 2 Adap. managing climate risk 16% Theme 3 Pro-poor mitigation 18% Theme 4 Integr. for decision making 26% Ca. 70% to CGIAR Centres and 30% to partners (i.e., more than $15m)

Take action across the whole food system

From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012


Rickards & Howden, 2012

Farmers strongly attached to their land

The change should be responsive and anticipatory with a high level of adaptive capacity.

Transformation in agriculture


Competition for land Globally, per capita arable land area will continue to decrease (0.415 ha in 1961 to 0.214 in 2007), while we need to increase production by at least 60%. Land-sharing vs. land-sparing Biomass for energy Land for non-food production system Conservation and biodiversity protection Urban and other infrastructure expansion on agricultural land Land for recreational and cultural purposes


Draft Belmont research topics

1. Evolution of farming systems and food security - Plausible futures for farming, livelihood and environment? Regional perspectives with case studies in selected countries. Participatory scenario work with stakeholders. - Where should food be produced to feed the global population? - What are the realistic opportunities to close yield gaps? - What changes in patterns of land-use can be anticipated with major shift in crop suitability under new climates?


Draft Belmont research topics 2. Land allocation for alternative purposes and impacts

on food production. Should include foreign acquisitions and global market impacts - How much will land-use change be driven by per capita consumption vs. population growth? - Trade-offs between food and energy production at local/regional scale. Effects on socio-economic and environmental conditions? - What are land-use implications for various dietary and energy scenarios? - Which market governance mechanisms are best able to incentivise land-users with net positive outcomes?


Draft Belmont research topics 3. Land tenure and intensification vs.

extensification - Intensification vs. extensification in balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services (C sequestration, etc.) and socio-economic conditions - Intensification without expansion onto non-

and land governance? - How can we ensure that land-owners benefit from various ecosystem services? - How will attempts to preserve biodiversity affect food production?


Draft Belmont research topics 4. Affordability of food

- How will food prices vary under different global-regional scenarios? - How will prices evolve in relation to extreme events? - How will farm and non-farm income vary under different global-regional scenarios? - How will conservation of natural land cover affect livelihoods and income-generating opportunities and hence access to food?


Belmont CRA principles Address the Belmont Challenge priorities (i.e., societally relevant global environmental change challenges). Assume that they should be aligned with Future Earth. Lever Belmont Forum members existing investments through international added value Bring together new partnerships of natural scientists, social scientists and users (i.e., co-design as an important principle of Future Earth)


New partnerships are essential

Farmers Private sector Civil society Governments

Scientists

In the past ...

Increasingly and in the future ...

Scientists

Governments Farmers

... with participatory agenda setting. 17 December 2012 40 Belmont Forum

Stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.org

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Thank you!


rosswall - food security - 2012-12-17

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