robocars & robotaxis, steve raney robocars & robotaxis · 1 robocars & robotaxis, steve...
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Robocars & Robotaxis, Steve RaneyUtopia or Dystopia?
• Minority: central override
• Total Recall: interior, Siri– Johnny Cab
• WALL-E atrophy.
Robocars & Robotaxis
GM EN-V, 1:00-3:40, youtube
– Connected Car / V2V
Google Robotaxi, 15-61s, youtube
– Empty movement, smartphone.
Talk Outline
• Expectations
– Provide a feel for design and planning issues
– Many conclusions & predictions exist (wrong)
– Fertile field for research
• Agenda
– Quick: Industry status
– Quick: Regulation
– How it works & what is difficult
– Markets & impacts.
Industry status• 2014: safer, more pleasant hands/feet-free freeway driving
– Lane keeping + traffic jam assist. Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS)
– Detect driver alertness / ability to take control
• Versus robo: robot is responsible for your safety. Freeway + surface.
Who ADAS Robo: LIDAR? Robo: When?
Google Yes, 300K mi 2016-2018
BMW Yes, 20K mi 2020
Nissan ? 2020
Mercedes 2014 Concept projects
Toyota Yes
VW/Audi Demo, “by 2019” Academic: Stanford
GM Super Cruise, 2015 EN-V: V2V, academic 2020
Ford 2017-2025
Volvo 2014
Continental Yes Radars, 10K mi
Regulation vs. Invisible Hand
• CA SB 1928
How it works – LIDAR-centric, no V2V
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Taking a ride in the Google robocar
• You are in the back seat
• Safety driver in driver seat
– Can switch from robot to human/manual driving
• Big red button in-between seats
• Engineer rides shotgun with laptop
– Watches objects being perceived
– Adds notes
• Can later analyze sensor data stream for debugging.
How it works: 3 key tasks
• 1) Know precise location (“localization”)
– Pattern match pre-mapped sensor data stream
• 2) Detect hazards
– Form object trajectory hypotheses
– Identify & avoid danger
• 3) Path planning
• Racing example, 24-49s, youtube
What’s hard about human driving? � Use cases
• Robotaxi product solution? Route, I2V.
Difficult human driving
• Bikes: fast & random
• Erratic drivers
• SF hills
• Surface St. vs. freeway.
Difficult human driving Add robot driving difficulties• Maneuvers that depend on eye contact
– Traffic cops?
– Traffic cop solution? Manual, control room, read gestures
• Reading human intentions (or lack thereof)
– How could robot communicate intentions?
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Steve Shladover’s Cautionary Insights
• UC PATH expert
• Human errors can be eliminated, but
• Cascading system dependencies introduce new vulnerabilities
• 1.16 fatalities every 100M miles driven �
– prove robocars are safer
• LIDAR system reaction slower than V2V
• Driving skills atrophy, but still needed
• TIME CHECK: 20 min.
For-Sale Robocar Markets
• Commuters
– Which commuters?
– Desired feature set? Office, motion, Siri, sleep
• “Time went fast”
• Enter work relaxed with more energy
– 5 second rule (text, distracted), 90%+
• Holiday travel
– Which travelers?
– Features? Drink, sleep, family-friendly interior.
For-Sale Robocar Impacts• Reduce (not eliminate) 32K US auto fatalities per year
– More safe � reduce car weight � increase MPG
• Given critical mass or dedicated lanes– Smoother driving � higher fuel economy
– Traffic ripples & accidents, closer following � less congestion
• Mobility: sight-impaired, seniors, kids
• Valet parking: popular � more driving
• Reduced friction/hassle during peak hour – More congestion, longer commutes OK � more driving (VMT)
• Social equity– Stratified society: superstar from Tahoe
– Driving-while-poor � less safe.
For-Sale Robocar
• Assisted (ADAS) - $3K+ add-on?
– Super Cruise + traffic jam assist
• Robocar - $10K add-on?
– Sensors are currently expensive
– Willingness to pay?.
Robotaxi “Taxi” Market• Uber, SideCar, Lyft: smartphone taxi-like
– Drivers make money on a “shift”
– Disfunctional urban taxi markets: SF, Seattle• Friendly, fast, reliable service
• Surge pricing at 1AM on Saturday from clubs/bars
– SideCar’s Sunil Paul: “can’t wait”
• Taxis (resistant)
– NYC: 3 trips/hr, 2.8 mi, 1.4 pax, 39% empty mi
• Labor cost-savings (jobs), efficient dispatch
• In-vehicle local-context content.
“ZipCar that drives to you” Market
• Converges to “robotaxi taxi” market
• Why not robo peer-to-peer?
– Commute, then your car makes you money
• Carshare services have to acquire parking spaces
• Higher fleet utilization
• Handle late returns
• Easier access to car variety.
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Urban Robo-taxi/ZipCar Impacts
• 1 carshare car takes 9-13 cars off road
– 43% GHG reduction
– VMT down 45%, transit use up
– Fewer new cars � 8 tons CO2 mfg
• Smaller annual auto revenue
– Free parking spaces for higher use
– Smallest car for the job � MPG
• Better mobility for low-income / transit-dependent folks?
– Who subsidizes? .
Suburban Robotaxi• 2 car family � 1 car + robotaxi + ZipCar + transit
pass + bike + walk + smartphone + borrow-a-car
• “Sparse” is bad – 6.7M Bay Area residents & 100 robotaxis (100K taxis!)
– “Orphaned” trips are bad
• Small, bounded area with critical mass – Redwood City: Caltrain, downtown, Dreamworks + Kaiser
– NYC-like short trips: • “live and work in Redwood City”
• Caltrain in or out-commuter
• Non-workers, students
• Capacity drops during peak hour
• A cost-of-driving rise will accelerate mobility services.
Robotaxi User Experience (UX)
• Rendezvous: busy street, parallel parking with bike lane, driveways, fire hydrants
– Human taxi drivers excel. Double park
– Robots? 3 simultaneous rendz in the rain at night?
• Life without a trunk that follows you around
– Sports / hobby gear
• “Google Now” smartphone anticipation
– Snoops your calendar. Knows your routine
– “Prod me from desk to robotaxi to train”
– Start & end address. Payment.
Robotaxi Economics(last slide)
• SF taxi rates
• City Car Share: $10/mo
– in urban envt w/ transit
• Audacious: compete w/ private cars (suburb)
– Private car: “all-in cost:” $0.55 per mile
• ?Willing to pay $0.75/mile for robotaxi?
– Pricing design? Consumers clueless re cost/mi
• “lumpy” payments.
Thank You Redwood City
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Redwood City bounded worker's bounded trips
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PRT vs. robotaxi for last mile
• PRT: self-driving, elevated transit, 4-person pods
• Robotaxi: no expensive elevated road
– But, during peak hour traffic, capacity degrades
– Could add elevated road if needed (“dual mode robotaxi”)
• Or dedicated at-grade lanes
• Last mile � increases transit & carpool commutes
• Robotaxi engineering
– PRT is an “easier” subset.
UCB robo-hero: Anthony LevandowskiMS/BS IE/OR, MBA, Google
• Self-driving motorcycle now in Smithsonian
• Pribot, 2008
References for Further Exploration
• “Obstacle Detection and Tracking for the Urban Challenge”
• “Boss and the Urban Challenge”
• “Junior: The Stanford Entry in the Urban Challenge”
• KPMG: “Self-driving cars: The next revolution”
• Robocars.com
• Udacity course #373: “Program a robocar in 7 weeks”
• Stanford ME302 “Future of the Car” class web
• Google robocar youtube, 17 min (search “vmWorld Urmson”)
• Three youtube videos in this PPT:• http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0tiHwzGsotA
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOWhu_aa9kM
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Fxp3HK6DI