Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics

Road vehicle-kilometres travelled: estimation from state and territory fuel sales

Report 124

Department of Infrastructure and Transport,Canberra, Australia

Commonwealth of Australia, 2011

ISBN 978-1-921769-29-0

August 2011 / INFRASTRUCTURE 1137

This publication is available in hard copy or PDF format from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics website at www.bitre.gov.auif you require part or all of this publication in a different format, please contact BITRE.

An appropriate citation for this report is:Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), 2011, Road vehicle-kilometres travelled: estimation from state and territory fuel sales, Canberra ACT.

Indemnity statementThe Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics has taken due care in preparing the analyses contained in this report. However, noting that data used for the analyses have been provided by third parties, the Commonwealth gives no warranty to the accuracy, reliability, fitness for purpose, or otherwise of the information.

Published byBureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics

GPO Box 501, Canberra ACT 2601, AustraliaTelephone (international) +61 2 6274 7210Fax +61 2 6274 6816Email: bitre@infrastructure.gov.auInternet: http://www.bitre.gov.au

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Foreword

In Australia, the motor vehicle fleet is characterised in terms of vehicle activity levels or traffic volume, expressed as vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT). Estimates of VKT are used extensively in transport planning for allocating resources, estimating vehicle emissions, computing energy consumption and assessing traffic impact. In addition, VKT estimates can also contribute information necessary to inform infrastructure investment decisions and road safety policy. Therefore, it is critical to have an accurate estimation of VKT.

This report describes an approach for estimating quarterly VKT by vehicle and fuel type from the state and territory fuel sales data for each of the eight states and territories in Australia. Quarterly estimates cover the period March 1965 to June 2010. It also produces estimates of quarterly VKT on capital city roads. The motor vehicle types used were: passenger vehicles (i.e. cars), motorcycles, light commercial vehicles (LCVs), rigid trucks, articulated trucks and buses, while three different types of fuel were considered, i.e. petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

This project was undertaken by David Gargett and Afzal Hossain, aided by David Cosgrove.

Gary Dolman Head of Bureau Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics August 2011

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At a glance

Road transport is an essential element of the Australian transport network, and an enabler of the Australian economy and society. However, a number of externalities arise from motor vehicle usage on roads, including pollution, congestion and road traffic accidents. Traffic volume or vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) on Australian roads is a consideration in many policy decisions. Therefore, it is critical to have an accurate timely estimation of VKT.

This report develops a methodology for estimating quarterly VKT by vehicle and fuel type for each of the eight states and territories. This method is based on the state and territory fuel sales data from March 1965 to June 2010. Quarterly VKT on the capital city roads were also estimated.

Use of quarterly fuel sales to provide estimates of traffic in our states and territories and cities has the major advantage of timeliness of informationa two month lag versus 1 to 3 year lag with national survey data. Another major advantage is that it allows detailed modelling of the causes of traffic growth, aiding our understanding of this crucial transport phenomenon.

Summary of key results that emerged from the analysis:

Annual road VKT on Australian roads increased from 55 billion km in 1965 to 221 billion km in 2010 (or 3.2 per cent per annum growth).

Among the five major states, road VKT grew faster in Queensland (4.2 per cent per annum) and slower in South Australian (2.3 per cent per annum) between 1965 and 2010. Similarly, among the three smaller states and territories, annual VKT growth was much faster in the Northern Territory (5.3 per cent) and the ACT (4.8 per cent); these two territories had very small amounts of VKT during the same period.

Between 1965 and 2010, road VKT by petrol-powered vehicles was much higher in all states and territories compared to that by diesel and LPG vehicles, but grew at a slower rate (2.6 per cent per year) than diesel vehicles (7.2 per cent per year).

In 2010, cars were responsible for 73 per cent of total VKT (sum of all transport modes) and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) for nearly 18 per cent.

Between 1965 and 2010, total capital city (sum of all capital cities) VKT estimates increased from 7.08 billion km to 31.45 billion km, an average annual growth rate of 3.6 per cent.

Between 1965 and 2010, capital city VKT estimates were much higher in two major capital cities (Sydney and Melbourne) and lower in three smaller capital cities (Hobart, Darwin and Canberra).

As a proportion of total state and territory VKT, total capital city VKT increased from 51.3 per cent in March 1965 to 56.3 per cent in June 2010.

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Contents

Foreword .................................................................................................................................................. iii

At a glance .................................................................................................................................................. v

Executive summary .................................................................................................................................................. xxiii

CHAPTER 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3

1.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 3

1.2 Context of the study....................................................................................... 5

1.3 Objectives of the study.................................................................................. 6

1.4 Structure of the report ................................................................................. 6

CHAPTER 2 Methods of estimating road vehicle kilometres travelled: a brief overview ............................................................................................................................. 9

Summary............................................................................................................................. 9

2.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 9

2.2 Methods of estimating road VKT .............................................................. 9

CHAPTER 3 Annual estimation of road vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) by vehicle type and by fuel type, state and territory, 19652007 ............. 17

Summary............................................................................................................................. 17

3.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 17

3.2 Annual road VKT estimation, 19652007 ............................................ 18

CHAPTER 4 Annual estimation of fuel intensity by states and territory, 19652007 ........................................................................................................................ 33

Summary............................................................................................................................. 33

4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 33

4.2 Annual fuel intensity estimation, 19652007 ..................................... 33

CHAPTER 5 Estimates of annual road transport fuel use (19652007) and total fuel sales (19662007) by state and territory and Australia ................. 47

Summary............................................................................................................................. 47

5.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 48

5.2 Annual road transport fuel use estimates, states and territories, 19652007 ................................................................................... 49

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5.3 Fuel sales data, 19662007 .......................................................................... 63

5.4 Annual road transport fuel use fractions, petrol and diesel, 19662007 ........................................................................................................... 79

CHAPTER 6 Forecasting annual road vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), states and territories, 200810 .............................................................................. 85

Summary............................................................................................................................. 85

6.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 85

6.2 Methodology for forecasting annual road VKT, 200810 ............ 85

6.3 Forecasts of annual road VKT estimates b