resources firefinch ltd

RESOURCES

Euroz Hartleys LimitedAll information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of Euroz Hartleys Limited or any member or employee thereof. Refer to full disclaimer at the end of this document.

Firefinch Ltd(FFX $0.75) Speculative Buy

Firefinch Ltd Year End 30 JuneShare Price 0.75 A$/shPrice Target 1.39 A$/shValuation 1.12 A$/sh Shares on issue 1040 m, diluted * Market Capitalisation 768 A$m Enterprise Value 686 A$m Debt 4 A$m Cash & Gold 85 A$m Largest Shareholder Van Eck 5.1%

Production F/Cast 2020A 2021F 2022FProd’n (kt) 8 54 122Cash Cost (A$/oz) 1670 1521 1930AISC (A$/oz) 1828 1637 2047

Assumptions 2020A 2021F 2022FGold Price US$/oz 1770 1803 1800AUDUSD 0.69 0.75 0.74

Key Financials 2020A 2021F 2022FRevenue (A$m) 21 105 238EBITDA (A$m) -1 34 38NPAT (A$m) 1 21 13Cashflow (A$m) -6 25 22 CFPS (Ac) 0 1 -2P/CFPS (x) na 72 -46 EPS (Ac) 0 2 1EPS growth (%) -1 15 0PER (x) 566 36 61 EV:EBITDA (x) -600.4 19.9 18.5EV:EBIT (x) 6579.4 22.7 24.3 DPS (Ac) 0.0 0.0 0.0Dividend Yield (%) 0% 0% 0% ND:Net Debt+Equity (%) -8% -76% -44%Interest Cover (x) na na na

Share Price Chart

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

$0.00$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90

Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21

VO

L '0

00

Share

Price (

$)

Disclaimer

Euroz Hartleys declares that it has acted as underwriter to and/or arranged an equity issue in and/or provided corporate advice to FFX during the last year. Euroz Hartleys has received a fee for these services.

Analyst Date Price Target

Michael Scantlebury 7th December 2021 $1.39/sh from $1.20/sh

Strong Goulamina economics in updated DFS

Event

Firefinch (Ltd) has announced its updated DFS for its Goulamina lithium project in Mali.

The high level numbers for the DFS on a 100% basis include:y US$255m in capex for stage 1 throughput of 2.3Mtpa to produce

506ktpa of 6% Li2O conc. at an AISC of US$365/t LOM ave. y Stage 2 increases throughput to 4.0Mtpa for an additional capex of

US$70m, which lifts production to 726ktpa over the LOM.

Impact

The study has confirmed our belief that the Goulamina lithium project is one of the most financially attractive undeveloped spodumene deposits globally. Even whilst utilising relatively conservative spodumene prices (LOM average US$978/t) at less than half the spot price.

Overall the study numbers were broadly in line with our previous modelling assumptions, we have adjusted to be slightly more conservative than the Company’s numbers, but still highlight significant upside.

Utilising a spot price for spodumene of US$2,200/t, produces a 90% risked NPV12 after tax valuation for FFX’s 45% share of Goulamina at +A$3b or +$3/sh. Which should give investors an idea of the leverage FFX has to spodumene price

Action

We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation and have increased our Price Target to $1.39/sh (~A$1.42b) from A$1.20/sh (~A$1.23b).

We recommend investors start positioning themselves in FFX for the Leo Lithium spin out due to occur in March-April CY22.

Key Catalysts

Upcoming key catalysts include:y Positive FID to occur post formation of Goulamina JV, expected early

CY22. y With a further US$90m invested into the JV by Ganfeng post a

positive FID.y Listing of Leo Lithium on the ASX, expected in March-April CY22.y Ongoing updates of the ramp up at the Morila gold mine.y Morila and Goulamina drill results.


Firefinch Limited(FFX $0.75) Speculative Buy

RESOURCES

Peer comparison table

Firefinch AVZ Minerals Liontown Piedmont Lithium CXO Lithium

ASX Code FFX AVZ LTR PLL CXO

Price $/sh 0.75 0.62 1.50 0.7725 0.51

Mkt Cap $m 762 1987 2857 1228 850

Cash $m 85 40 27 111 137

Enterprise Value $m 681 1947 2831 1117 714

Project Goulamina Manono Kathleen Valley Piedmont Finniss

Location Mali DRC WA North Carloina, USA NT

% Ownership 45% (Gov 10-20%) 51% (post trans) 100% 100% 100%

Status Updated DFS complete

DFS complete DFS complete Integrated DFS underway

DFS complete

Total Resource 109Mt at 1.45% Li2O 401Mt at 1.65% Li2O 156Mt at 1.4% Li2O 44Mt at 1.08% Li2O 15Mt at 1.32% Li2O

Reserve 52Mt at 1.51% Li2O 132Mt at 1.63% Li2O 68.5Mt at 1.34% Li2O NA 7.4Mt at 1.3% Li2O

Mining method Open pits Open pits Mostly U/G Open pits OP / Underground

Capex US$255m US$546m US$345 US$168m US$65m

Strip Ratio 3.3x 0.5x 6.8X + UG 10.4x 22x

Throughput 4.0Mtpa 4.5Mtpa 2.5Mtpa 1.15Mtpa 1.0Mtpa

Recoveries 80% 60% 78% 85% 72%

Spod Conc. 726Ktpa (363ktpa) 700Ktpa 511Ktpa 160Ktpa 173Ktpa

Product Spec. 6% Li2O 6% Li2O 6% Li2O 6% Li2O 5.8% Li2O

Distance to port ~1000Km ~2,500-3200Km ~800Km NA ~88Km

Mine life 21Yrs 20Yrs 23Yrs 20Yrs 8Yrs

AISC (ex credits) US$365/t US$371/t US$452/t US$310/t US$441/t

RESOURCES



Analysisy Some of the key changes and important numbers in the updated DFS

include:o Capex increasing 31% to US$255m (EH assumed US$230m), no

real surprise given industry cost inflation.− We now assume capex of US$270m in our model.

o Stage 2 expansion increases throughput from 2.3mtpa to 4mtpa is targeted 18months in, for capex of US$60m.− We assume stage 2 expansion inline with the Company.

o Increased production rates to 726ktpa of spod concentrate, largely driven by increased recovery rates (80% compared to 77%) and Stage 2 throughput. − We have maintained our recovery assumption of 72% vs

Company 80%. This is an effort to be conservative and to be in-line with industry averages until proven otherwise.

o Overall the updated DFS showed AISC increasing 17% to US$365/t, largely driven by processing costs increase.− We assume an AISC of ~US$395/t over the life of mine with the

difference due to a number of our conservative assumptions previously mentioned.

o Assumed received spodumene prices have increased 47% to US$978/t over the LOM, US$1,250 first 5 years and long term US$900/t − We continue to assume spodumene prices decreasing to

US$750/t from CY25 onwards.o First production is scheduled from early CY24.− We assume first production in 1H CY24, although with a slightly

more conservative ramp up.o Listing of Leo Lithium on the ASX, expected in March-April CY22.

Oct 2020 DFS Updated DFS Euroz Hartleys

Stage 1 Capex US$194m US$255m US$270m

Stage 1 Throughput 2.3Mtpa 2.3Mtpa 2.3Mtpa

Stage 2 Capex US$70m US$70m

Stage 2 Throughput 4.0Mtpa 4.0Mtpa

Recoveries 77% 80% 72%

Av. Spod Conc. (100% basis) 436Ktpa 726Ktpa 700Ktpa

Av. Head grade 1.51% Li2O 1.43% Li2O 1.4% Li2O

Strip Ratio 3.26x 3.3x 3.3x

Mine life 23Yrs 21Yrs 21Yrs

Av. AISC US$313/t US$365/t US$395/t

Av Spod price US$666/t US$978/t US$750/t

First production NA Early CY24 Early CY24

Post tax Cashflow (100%) PA US$106m US$318m US$255m

RESOURCES



Price Target and Valuation y On our set of assumptions:

o In our valuation some of parts, our base case 90% risked NPV12 after tax valuation for FFX’s 45% share of Goulamina is now ~A$725m or ~71cps (previously A$339 or 33cps). o In our Price Target some of parts our valuation for Goulamina

which assumes a higher spodumene price of US$900/t (vs US$750/t in our base case valuation) produces a 90% risked NPV12 after tax valuation for FFX’s 45% share of Goulamina of ~A$1.0b or ~$0.97/sh o Utilising a spot price for spodumene of US$2,200/t, produces

a 90% risked NPV12 after tax valuation for FFX’s 45% share of Goulamina of +A$3b or +$3/sh. Which should give investors an idea of the leverage FFX has to spodumene price

PRICE TARGET ASSET VALUATION A$m A$/sh

(+) Morila (risk adj 90%) 304 0.30

(-) Corporate (28) (0.03)

(+/-) Heding - -

(+) Exploration 70 0.07

(+) Goulamina Lithium (US$900/t spod) 1,000 0.97

(+) Cash 90 0.09

(-) Debt (overdraft facility) (4) (0.00)

Total 1,427 1.39

ASSET VALUATION A$m A$/sh

(+) Morila (risk adj 90%) 304 0.30

(-) Corporate (28) (0.03)

(+/-) Heding - -

(+) Exploration 70 0.07

(+) Goulamina (risk adj 90%) 725 0.71

(+) Cash 85 0.08

(-) Debt (overdraft facility) (4) (0.00)

Total 1,152 1.12

RESOURCES



Project Economics

Source: FFX

RESOURCES



Changes in operating costs

Source: FFX

Changes in capital costs

Source: FFX

Fundingy The required funding for the stage 1 plant (2.3Mtpa throughput) is

US$255m. This will be funded through a combination of:o US$130m in cash funding from Ganfeng into the JV o Between US$40-64m in debt funding into the JV.o Which leaves US$85-61m on a 100% basis, or US$42-31m Leo

Lithium’s share required, which we believe will sourced from a combination of further debt facilities and the entitlement issue that Leo Lithium plans to undertake on listing.

y We anticipate that upon listing in March-April CY22 Leo Lithium will be fully funded to first production in CY24, an impressive feat for a Company that had no JV partner/offtake and a market capitalisation of just ~A$100m only 12 months ago.

RESOURCES



Transport and logistics

We see the transport of spodumene concentrate to port as one of the key risks for the project, given the volume (+500ktpa of concentrate) and the estimated ~1000km distance required to travel to Abidjan port in Côte d’Ivoire (assuming Route 1). The Company noted that that for stage 1 a truck fleet of 220-250 trucks with capacity of 38t will be required.

The Company is assuming transport and port handling costs of US$99/t. Which equates to ~US$0.10/t/km. We have assumed slightly high transport costs of US$110/t in an effort to be conservative.

Transport routes from October 2020 DFS

Source: 20th October 2020 ASX release

y The Company reported IRR of 83% easily exceeds the 15% IRR hurdle required by the JV for a positive FID. This will trigger the final US$90m out of the US$130m funding into the JV by Ganfeng.

y Overall we see this study should go some way to closing the valuation gap between FFX and some of its spodumene developer peers.

y It is worth remembering that “Only Firefinch shareholders will be eligible to receive an in-specie distribution of Leo shares and to participate in an entitlement issue upon listing of Leo.”

RESOURCES



Our Share Price Sensitivity

-$0.10

$0.10

$0.30

$0.50

$0.70

$0.90

$1.10

$1.30

$1.50

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21

A$/shVol 'm FFX 12 month price history

Our Market Sensitivity Price Target $1.39/sh

Valuation $1.12/sh

Bull Scenario $1.88/sh FFX finds additional ore at a higher grade than the Morila pit allowing production to exceed our forecast long term production average of ~160ko-zpa over 10 years. The gold price tracks above our LT price assumption. Leo Lithium is taken over for A$1.5b.

Base Scenario $1.39/sh The Company is able to restart open pit mining in-line with our estimates and ramp up produc-tion to ~160kozpa (100% basis) post CY22 out to CY30. Spodumene price rise to US$900/t and are maintained at this level for the long term. Goulamina throughput is expanded to 4Mtpa in 18months after first production.

Bear Scenario $0.30/sh Gold price falls. Refurbishment and mining costs exceed our estimates and further equity dilution is required. The the Goulima lithium project devel-opment stalls.

Company SummaryFirefinch Limited (FFX) owns an 80% interest in the Morila gold mine in Mali, with the Company planning to transition the 4mtpa plant from its current tailings ore feed to treat open pit ore from satellite and ultimately the Morila pit. The Compa-ny continues to progress its Morila gold project, recently announcing its LOMP which highlight-ed ~160kozpa out to 2028 (+2 years outside of Reserves), at an AISC of ~A$1,500/oz (US$1,124/oz). We also note that Company signed a binding term sheet to sell down 50% of the Goulamina lithium asset for US$130m of JV funding to Gan-feng, leaving the project close to fully funded.

DisclaimerThe projections and information above is based on the set assumptions outlined. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of this information. However actual results may vary from forecasts and any variation may be materi-ally positive or negative. Forecasts by their very nature, are subject to uncertainty and contingen-cies, many of which are outside the control of Euroz Hartleys.

Key Variables

Val/ Sh Gold $

$1.12 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

AU

DU

SD

15% $0.920 $0.959 $0.999 $1.039 $1.078 $1.118 $1.158 $1.197 $1.237

10% $0.926 $0.967 $1.009 $1.050 $1.091 $1.133 $1.174 $1.216 $1.257

5% $0.932 $0.976 $1.019 $1.062 $1.106 $1.149 $1.193 $1.236 $1.279

0% $0.939 $0.985 $1.030 $1.076 $1.122 $1.167 $1.213 $1.258 $1.304

-5% $0.947 $0.995 $1.043 $1.091 $1.139 $1.187 $1.235 $1.283 $1.331

-10% $0.956 $1.006 $1.057 $1.108 $1.158 $1.209 $1.260 $1.310 $1.361

-15% $0.966 $1.019 $1.073 $1.126 $1.180 $1.234 $1.287 $1.341 $1.395

EH Forecast 2020A FY'2021 FY'2022 FY'2023

Gold (US$/lb) $1,770 $1,803 $1,800 $1,750

AUDUSD $0.69 $0.75 $0.74 $0.74

$0

$600

$1200

$1800

$2400

0

50

100

150

200

250

CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24 CY25 CY26 CY27 CY28 CY29 CY30

koz)

FFX - Prod'n & AISC Euroz Hartleys Forecast

Production (Koz) AISC Cost (A$/oz)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CY24 CY25 CY26 CY27 CY28 CY29 CY30 CY31 CY32 CY33 CY34 CY35 CY36 CY37 CY38

US$/tKt of Conc.

FFX - Prod'n & AISC EH Forecast (100% basis)

Production (Ktpa) AISC Cost (US$/t of Conc.)

RESOURCES



Market Statistics Year End 30 JuneShare Price 0.75 A$/sh Issued Capital Fully Paid Ord 1,027 m Options (var. prices) 13 mTotal Dil. 1,040 m Market Capitalisation $768 mEnterprise Value $686 mCash (est. post SPP) $85 mDebt $4 m

DirectorsA.Cowden ChairM. Anderson MDB.Gordon NE DirM.Hepburn NE DirB.Borg NE DirB.Fraser NE DirE.Hughes CFO & SecShareholders Van Eck 5.1%

Asset Valuation A$m A$/sh(+) Morila (risk adj 90%) 304 0.30 (-) Corporate (28) (0.03)(+/-) Heding - - (+) Exploration 70 0.07 (+) Goulamina (risk adj 90%) 725 0.71 (+) Cash 85 0.08 (-) Debt (overdraft facility) (4) (0.00) Total 1,152 1.12

F/Cast Production (A$m) 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023FMorila (100%) Throughput Mtpa 0.9 4.1 3.7 3.8Head grade g/t 0.45 0.63 1.14 1.50Recovery % 52% 63% 90% 90%Gold Production Koz 8 54 122 165 Cash Costs (C1) A$/oz 1,670 1,521 1,930 1,383AISC A$/oz 1,828 1,637 2,047 1,629AISC US$/oz 1,263 1,228 1,514 1,206 Assumptions Spot Gold Price US$/oz 1,770 1,803 1,800 1,750 FX Rate ass’d A$/US$ 0.69 0.75 0.74 0.74

Ratio Analysis (A$m) 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F

Cashflow -6 25 22 82Cashflow Per Share -0 1 -2 4Cashflow Ratio na 72 -46 17 Earnings 1 21 13 70Earnings Per Share 0 2 1 7EPS Growth -1 15 -0 5P/e Ratio 568 36 61 11 Enterprise Value 586 675 702 637EV/EBITDA -602 20 19 6EV/EBIT 6,602 23 24 6 Net Debt/(Net Debt + Equity) -0 -1 -0 -1Interest Cover na na na naEBIT Margin 0 0 0 0Return on Equity 0 0 0 0Return on Assets 0 0 0 0 Dividend per Share 0 0 0 0Dividend Payout Ratio 0 0 0 0Dividend Yield 0 0 0 0Dividend Franking na na na na

Profit and Loss (A$m) 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F(+) Gold revenue 20 105 238 312 (+/-) Hedging Revenue - - - - (+) Interest Income 0 - - - (+) Other Revenue 0 - - - Total Revenue 21 105 238 312 (-) Operating Costs (19) (71) (200) (197)(-) Dep/Armort (0) (4) (9) (12)(-) Writeoff (expl’n) - - - - (-) O/H + News Bus Dev. (1) - - - (-) Provisions 1 - - - EBITDA (1) 34 38 115 EBIT 0 30 29 103 (-) Interest Expense - - (2) (2)NPBT 1 30 26 101 (-) Tax (0) (9) (14) (30)(-) Minority Interest - - - - Net Profit 1 21 13 70 (+/-) Net abnormal (1) - - - Net profit After Abnormal 0 21 13 70

Cash Flow (A$m) 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023FNet Profit 1 21 13 70 (+) WC adj. (6) - - - (+) Dep/Amort 0 4 9 12 (+) Provisions & W/O (1) - - - (+) Tax Expense 0 9 14 30 (-) Deferred Revenue - - - - (-) Tax Paid (0) (9) (14) (30)Operating Cashflow (6) 25 22 82 (-) Capex + Dev. - (36) (40) (18)(-) Exploration (3) (8) (8) (8)(-) Asset Purchased (46) - - - (+) Asset Sale 0 - - - (+/-) Other - - - - Investing Cashflow (49) (44) (48) (26) (+) Equity Issues (rts,plc,opts) 69 96 - - (+) Loan Drawdown/receivable - - 30 - (+) Loans from(to) other entities - - - - (-) Loan Repayment - - - (20)(-) Dividends - - - - Financing Cashflow 69 96 30 (20) Net Cashflows 14 77 4 37 (+/-) FX Adj. (1) - - - EoP Cash Balance 17 94 98 135

Balance Sheet (A$m) 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023FAssets Cash 17 94 98 135 Current Receivables 14 14 14 14 Other Current Assets 37 37 37 37 Non-Current Assets 71 102 133 139 Total Assets 139 248 283 325 Balance Sheet Borrowing(s) 10 - 30 10 Current Accounts payable 10 10 10 10 Other Liabilites 21 21 21 21 Total Liabilties 40 30 60 50 Net Assets 99 218 223 275

Reserves and Resources Reserves Resources ore grade metal ore grade metal mt g/t Koz mt g/t KozMorila 19.8 1.47 932 38.6 1.50 1,860Tailings 1.7 0.50 51Satellites 3.8 1.13 137 2.6 1.38 113Other 4.0 2.59 329 Total contained Gold 23.8 1.40 1,069 50.5 1.50 2,433EV/oz 625 275

Disclaimer


Copyright & Distribution

The material contained in this communication (and all attachments) is prepared for the exclusive use of clients of Euroz Hartleys Limited (ACN 104 195 057) only.

Euroz Hartleys Limited is the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL 230052) and is a participant of the Australian Securities Exchange Group.

The information contained herein is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient no confidentiality is lost by your receipt of it. Please delete and destroy all copies, and contact Euroz Hartleys Limited on (+618) 9488 1400. You should not use, copy, disclose or distribute this information without the express written authority of Euroz Hartleys Limited.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

Euroz Hartleys Limited, and their associates declare that they deal in securities as part of their securities business and consequently may have an interest in the securities recommended herein (if any). This may include providing equity capital market services to the issuing company, hold a position in the securities, trading as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions not consistent with the recommendation (if any) in this report.

Euroz Hartleys Limited declares that they may have separately or jointly acted as an underwriter, arranger, co-arranger or adviser in equity capital raisings, and will have received a fee for its services, from or any company mentioned within this report during the last 12 months.

You should not act on any recommendation issued by Euroz Hartleys Limited without first consulting your investment adviser in order to ascertain whether the recommendation (if any) is appropriate, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Nothing in this report shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell a security, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction.

Euroz Hartleys Limited believes that the information and advice contained herein is correct at the time of compilation, however we make no representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete, reliable or up to date, nor do we accept any obligation to correct or update the opinions in it. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of Euroz Hartleys Limited accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this material.

We cannot guarantee that the integrity of this communication has been maintained, is free from errors, virus interception or interference.

The author of this publication, Euroz Hartleys Limited, it’s directors and their associates from time to time may hold shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those securities. Euroz Hartleys Limited, and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of transactions arising from any advice mentioned in publications to clients.

Analyst Certification

We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and we are not in possession of, nor does this Research contain any inside information.

No part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in this research, nor has any attempt been made to influence this Research.

Contact DetailsEuroz Hartleys Limited +61 8 9488 1400

Research AnalystsJon Bishop - Head of Research +61 8 9488 1481Mike Millikan - Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 2805 Kyle De Souza - Resources Analyst +61 8 9488 1427Michael Scantlebury - Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 2837 Steven Clark - Resources Analyst +61 8 9488 1430Trent Barnett - Senior Analyst +61 8 9268 3052 Gavin Allen - Senior Analyst +61 8 9488 1413Harry Stevenson - Industrials Analyst +61 8 9488 1429 Seth Lizee - Research Analyst +61 8 9488 1414

resources firefinch ltd

Documents