Research Needs*†

We are now in the “accountability” phase of MP, where we must closely monitor the layer through the sensitive recovery period.

- Are our actions having the desired effects?

- Is the ozone layer recovering?

Vigilance is essential during adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

- Are there any unintended consequences to the ozone layer?

[*Adapted from: Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.4: Trends in Emissions of Ozone Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for UV Radiation Exposure]

†Starting from Ravi’s talk on Sunday

Scientific Findings

1980 Now 2100

OD

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(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

ODS production

ODS in the atmosphere

Ozone levels-measured and predicted

UV levels-measured and predicted

Ozo

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“There is even stronger evidence since the 2002 Assessment that the Montreal Protocol is working”

ODS are decreasing & the ozone layer is starting its recovery

Climate change and ODSs will affect the future of ozone layer

Decreases in ODS emissions already achieved by MP is the dominant factor in return to pre-1980 values

But failure to continue compliance with the MP could delay or even prevent the recovery of the ozone layer

Global ozone layer (60oS-60oN) is expected to recover to pre-1980 values around 2050

Return of ozone to pre-1980 levels

A balanced programme of

atmospheric observations,

laboratory measurements,

modelling and data analysis.

Particular plea for (continued) collection of long-term measurements for science.

Testing convection?

O3 sondes

SHADOZ + SCOUT-O3 AMMA data

PacificSamoa14ºS

Africa/Indian OceanReunion I21ºS

Continental AfricaNiamey12 º NJuly 2006

AtlanticAscension7ºS

Gaps in Our Knowledge and Future Needs1. Continued atmospheric observations

- Ozone

- ODS

- New releases (ascertain their ozone friendliness!)

- UV and its changes

Needs recognised here include

• the absolute necessity to maintain high quality GB observations

• concerns about satellite data (gaps) - hi-res ozone profiles; ODS (Cly, Bry) evolution; water vapour; ozone diagnostics.

Gaps and needs, continued

2. Understanding the processes that impact ozone layer

- chemical processes

Need for updated lab measurements, e.g. ClO dimer, ODS lifetimes

- dynamical processes

e.g., strengthening BD circulation; ODS lifetimes

- New releases

3. Global models

- Deal with stratosphere as an integral part of the Earth system

- Enable better prediction of recovery and accounting

CCMVal activity

4. Reporting and documentation

- Better accounting for ODSs and related chemicals

Important that we maximise use of all resources - infrastructure, capital and human.

Overlap between programmes?

Overlap of data bases?

Trust fund/capacity building?