renewable energy powered desalination : a …renewable energy powered desalination: a sustainable...

RENEWABLE ENERGY POWERED

DESALINATION : A SUSTAINABLE

SOLUTION TO THE IRANIAN WATER

CRISIS

Upeksha Caldera, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Mahdi Fasihi, Arman Aghahosseini and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland6th NCE Researchers Seminar, Lappeenranta, 29-30 August

Renewable Energy Powered Desalination: A Sustainable Solution to the Iranian Water CrisisUpeksha Caldera [email protected]

Agenda

MotivationMethodology and DataResultsSummary


Motivation• Increasing shortage of renewable water

resources to meet Iran’s water demand• Growth of conventional water supply

solution of dams is limited• Climate change threatens the renewable

water resource further• Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO)

desalination enables to utilise vast waterresource from Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

• 100% renewable energy powereddesalination eliminates dependence on fossil fuels and greenhouse gasemissions

• Prior research illustrate economicviability of global 100% renewable energypowered SWRO systems(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/297714512_Local_cost_of_seawater_RO_desalination_based_on_solar_PV_and_wind_energy_A_global_estimate )

Projected Water Stress for the 2030 optimistic scenarioin Iran. Southern and central regions of Iran suffer fromdeteriorating water stress, even in an optmistic scenario.Source: Luck et al., 2015; Faramarzi M. et al., 2009


Agenda



Key Objective• Municipal, industrial and agricultural water demands

are met.• Industrial demand excludes water withdrawal for

thermal power plants. A 100% renewable energypower system is assumed for Iran.

• Water storage ensures supply of water at all times.• SWRO plants are powered through hybrid renewable

energy power plants.• High Voltage DC power lines transport power to

SWRO plants located on the coast of the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf. Caspian sea is excluded.

Research question:• Can future water demand of Iran be met through

100% renewable energy powered SWRO plants at a cost level competitive with current fossil poweredSWRO plants?

Desalination system proposed to meet the future waterdemand of Iran


MethodologyKey Concept, Model and Input Data

Levelised cost of water (€/m3) • Levelised cost of water production at desalination plant + Levelised cost of water transportation

from desalination plant to demand site• Similar approach to the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)LUT energy model• Analyses LCOW for regions with water stress in Iran, based on a multi-node approach• Spatial resolution of 0.45 x 0.45 and hourly temporal resolution

Input data to model: Data are for 2030 optimistic scenario• High and extremely high water stress regions considered• Water demand

• Desalination demand estimated using logistic function of total water demand and water stress• SWRO desalination system and renewable energy power plant costs• Energy consumption of SWRO plants and water transportation

Model determines least cost system that is the optimal solution for Iran


DataSWRO Desalination Cost for 2030

Water storage at desalination site• Capex : 64.6 € / m3

• Lifetime : 30 years• Fixed Opex : 1.29 € / m3

Water transportation from desalination plant to demand site • Piping Capex : 0.053 € / (km m3 a )• Horizontal Pumping Capex : 19.23 € / (km m3 hr )• Vertical Pumping Capex : 15.40 € / (m m3 hr )• Horizontal energy consumption : 0.04 kWh/ (m3 /hr) / 100 km • Vertical energy consumption : 0.36 kWh/ (m3 /hr) / 100 m

– SWRO desalination plant• Capex : 2.23 € / (m3 a)• Lifetime : 30 years• Baseload hours : System optimum• Fixed Opex : 4% of Capex • Energy consumption based on salinity of feed water. Approx

range 2.80 kWh/m3 – 3.30 kWh/m3


DataHybrid Renewable Energy Power Plant Costs 2030

PV fixed-tilted plant • Capex : 550 €/kW• Fixed Opex : 1.5% of capex

PV single-axis tracking plants• Capex : 620 €/kW• Fixed Opex : 1.5% of capex

Battery• Capex : 150 €/kWh• Fixed Opex : 10 €/(kWh a)

Wind power plant• Capex : 1000 €/kW• Fixed Opex : 2% of capex

Power to Gas (PtG) • Water electrolysis

Capex : 380 €/kWH2Fixed Opex : 13 €/(kWH2 a)

• CO2 scrubbingCapex : 356 €/kWSNGFixed Opex : 14.24

€/(kWSNG a)• Methanation

Capex : 234 €/kWSNGFixed Opex : 13 €/(kWSNG a)

• Gas storage : 0.05 €/kWhWACC is 7%


Agenda



Results: Optimal Solution for Iran 2030 Least cost solution for Iran 2030 optimisticscenario comprise of

• PV fixed-tilted• PV single-axis tracking• wind power plant• batteries and PtG plants

– 83% of the energy generated by hybrid PV-Windpower plants provided by PV. Total PV capacityrequired 392 GW. Total PV single-axis trackingcapacity is 223 GW.

Total desalination demand of the 2030 optimistic scenario in Iran approx. 215 millionm3/day.By 2015 online SWRO capacity approx. 175,000 m3/day.

Contribution of PV to the installed capacity of PV-Windhybrid power plants


Results: Optimal Solution Levelised Cost of Electricity

– LCOE range of complete system 0.06 €/kWh – 0.10 €/kWh

– Includes generation, transmission, curtailment and storage

– Higher LCOE in the northern partsdue to lower full load hours of PV-Wind hybrid power plant. More battery and PtG plant capacities required, increasing the LCOE.

LCOE range for the complete system in Iran 2030

12 Renewable Energy Powered Desalination: A Sustainable Solution to the Iranian Water CrisisUpeksha Caldera [email protected]

Results: Optimal Solution Levelised Cost of Water

– LCOW range of complete system 0.50 €/m3 – 2.0 €/m3. Prevalent range 1.0 €/m3

– 1.80 €/m3

– Global model’s LCOW range is approx. 0.70 €/m3 – 2.00 €/m3

– Current water production costs of SWRO plants in Hormozgan approx 0.70 €/m3. In the model the relevant LCOW range is approx. 0.50 €/m3 – 1.50 €/m3

– Higher LCOW in model due to inclusionof water pumping and water storage

– Energy cost for water pumpingcontributes approx. 30% towards LCOW in Iran. Global average contribution is 16%. Higher value is attributed to theelevation profile in Iran.

LCOW range for a complete system in Iran 2030


Results: Optimal Solution Impact of Batteries and Power to Gas

Batteries and PtG allow higher full loadhours of the desalination plant.

Results in lower LCOW

The use of PtG• Provides upto 16% of the total energy

demand• Decreases excess energy by 32% to

an average of 6%• Reduced required PV capacity by 30%• Increases wind capacity by 49% • Decreases battery storage by 15%• Decreases water storage by 40%• Results in average LCOW decrease of

approx. 10% Ratio of excess energy to total energy generation ofsystem in Iran 2030


Results: Optimal Solution Overview of System Required

2030 Optimal System for Iran

SWRO total desalination demandper day

m3/day 215 mill

PV capacity installed GWp 392

PV fixed-tilted GWp 169

PV single-axis tracking GWp 223

Wind capacity installed GW 83

Battery capacity installed TWh 270

PtG capacity installed GWel 62

Average excess energy curtailed % 6

Total Capex bn€ 1177

Annualised costs bn€ 142

LCOW range €/m3 0.5 – 2.0

Prevalent LCOW range €/m3 1.0 – 1.8

LCOW of current fossil poweredSWRO plants in Hormozgan: 0.70 €/m3

LCOW range in Hormozganbased on model: 0.50 €/m3 – 1.50 €/m3

Higher costs in model due to energy demand for waterpumping

In the near future, LCOW of 100%renewable energy powered SWROplants in Iran will be costcompetitive with current fossilpowered SWRO plants in Iran


Results: Optimal SolutionDistribution of the Capital Cost

Total Capex for complete system for Iran: 1177 bn€

Largest contributors to total capex• Vertical transportation

infrastructure ~18%• SWRO desalination plants ~15%• PV single-axis tracking ~12%• Batteries ~10%

Second most expensivecontributor of the power plant


Results: Optimal SolutionDistribution of Annualised System Capex and Opex Components (in bn €)

Annualised Capex is 141 bn€Annual Opex is 40 bn€

Electricity generation comprise of hybridPV-Wind power plants, batteries and power-to-gas. Largest share of annualised costs.

Piping capex (vertical and horizontal pumpsand pipes) is the second largest share of annualised costs


Further developing the Iranian modelThe model for Iran can be refined with the following data sets:

• More accurate future water stress and water demand values for Iran. For instance, water stress should take into account the impact of climate change. Water demand should consider the complete removal of fossil fuel powered thermal power plants.

• Well-defined learning curve for SWRO desalination plants.

• Updated water transportation costs, specifically for Iran and the soil conditions.


Agenda



Summary• An alternative water source is needed to meet Iran’s future water demand amidst a

renewable water scarcity.

• The LUT energy model is used to determine the least cost renewable energy power plantmix for Iran’s 2030 desalination demand.

• By 2030 Iranian water demand can be met solely through 100% renewable energy poweredSWRO plants at costs competitive with that of current fossil powered SWRO plants.

• The optimal solution for Iran comprise of PV fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, windpower plants, batteries and power-to-gas.

• The resulting LCOW range is 0.50 €/m3 – 2.0 €/m3. This includes cost of water production,water storage and transportation from desalination plant to demand site.

• Higher elevation profile of Iran and long distances results in increased water transporationcosts.

NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openingsand the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University

of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre.

Please check next slides for an overview of all data, assumptions and references.

Thank you for your attention!


References

Luck M., Landis M., Gassert F., 2015, Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal projections of water supply and demand using CMIP5 GCMs, Washington DC, World Resources Institute, [accessed: September 9, 2015], www.wri.org/sites/default/files/aqueduct-water-stress-projections-technical-note.pdfFaramarzi M., Abbaspour C. K., Schulin R., Yang H., 2009, Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran, Hydrological Processes, 23, 486-501Caldera U., Bogdanov D., Breyer Ch., 2016, “Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: A global estimate”, Desalination, 385, 207-216Madani K., 2014, “Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?”, Journal of Environmental Studies Science, 4, 315-328Global Water Intelligence DesalData, 2016, Iran Country Profile, Oxford, United Kingdom, [accessed March 28, 2016] www.desaldata.com/countries/67’Karbassi A., Bidhendi G. N., Pejman A., Bidhendi M. E., 2010, “Environmental impacts of desalination on the ecology of Lake Urmia”, Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, 419-424.Middle East Business Intelligence, 2015, “Special Report Power and Water. Tehran’s dwindling water supplies”, Dubai, United Arab Emirates,15-28, 40-41Tasnim News Agency, 2015, Iran to supply drinking water to 16 provinces through desalination: Minister, Tehran, Iran, [accessed March 23, 2016] http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2015/11/03/906669/iran-to-supply-drinking-water-to-16-provinces-through-desalination-minister

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