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1Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Reimagining the Future:A Journey Through the Looking Glass
Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
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What was the most significant
development in human history?
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“It made mockery of all
that had gone before it”Ian Morris - Historian
The Steam Engine
Source: MIT Initiative on the Digital economy
First Industrial RevolutionSecond Industrial Revolution
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Mindset Shift
Are we on the verge of the next revolution?
Transition2016
Transition
Second Industrial Revolution Platform
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“The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous
industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace”
Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum
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The Next Revolution
General Purpose Technology Platform
Convergence of Paradigm Shifts
Linear to Exponential Shift
7Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services LimitedCopyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
General Purpose Technology Platform
Communications Energy Transport
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A Convergence of Paradigm shifts
Ownership to access
Five generations of workers
Rise of the Crowd
Resource Scarcity
Technological Unemployment
Climate Change
Increased Lifespans
Fall in Working Age Population
Power to the Individual
The Rise of Independent Workers
Rising Energy Demand
Generation Z
Population Growth
Global Inequality
Reverse Brain Drain
Abundance
Millennial Focus on Purpose
Aging Population
Growing Need for Elder Care
Shifting Views of Retirement
Urbanization
The Changing Notion of Work
Generational Differences
Emerging Middle Class
Decline in Fertility Rates
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart HomesArtificial Narrow Intelligence
Connected Healthcare
Automation of Everything
Maker Economy
Smart Grid
Energy Internet
Healthy Life Extension
Next Generation Education
Smart Cities
Connected Car
Circular Economy
Logistics Internet
Radical Life Extension
Artificial Super Intelligence
Sharing Economy
Decentralization of Everything
Human-Machine Convergence
Artificial General Intelligence
Human 2.0
Democracy 2.0
Money 2.0
Empowerment Economy
Transport 2.0
De-Extinction
Cyberwar
Institution 2.0
Food 2.0
Science and Technology Foundation
Innovation Accelerators
Emerging and Future Accelerators
Future Scenarios
Social
Mobile
Cloud
Big Data - Analytics
Internet
3D Printing
Renewable Energy
Internet of Things
Robotics
Blockchain
Cognitive Systems
Nanotechnology
Drones
Genomics
9Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Linear to Exponential Shift
Time
Scie
nce
an
d T
ech
no
logy
Cap
abili
ty
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The Challenge of PaceDisruptive Stress or Opportunity
Right BrainTime to Scale
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Critical Facets of the Next Revolution
Future Thinking
Structure
Value
Scenarios
Ethics
Viability
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The Future is approaching faster than people think
Changing our belief system
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Future Thinking Grows in Importance
Information-enabled
Science & Technology
Combinatorial
Speed
ScaleDigital
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Autonomous Vehicles
Smart HomesArtificial Narrow Intelligence
Automation of Everything
Maker Economy
Smart Grid
Energy Internet
Healthy Life Extension
Next Generation Education
Smart Cities
Connected Car
Circular Economy
Logistics Internet
Radical Life Extension
Artificial Super Intelligence
Sharing Economy
Decentralization of Everything
Human-Machine Convergence
Artificial General Intelligence
Human 2.0
Democracy 2.0
Money 2.0
Empowerment Economy
Transport 2.0
De-Extinction
Cyberwar
Institution 2.0
Food 2.0
Connected Healthcare
Social
Mobile
Cloud
Big Data - Analytics
Internet
3D Printing
Renewable Energy
Internet of Things
Robotics
Blockchain
Cognitive Systems
Nanotechnology
Drones
Genomics
Augmented Reality
Virtual Reality
Quantum Computing
Energy Storage
Precision Agriculture
Vertical Farming
Materials Science
Synthetic Biology
Bioelectronics
Photonics
Biophotonics
Genetic Engineering
Reusable Rockets
Visible Light Communications
Aquaponics
Artificial photosynthesis
Hyperloop
Flying Cars
Lab grown meat
Brain-Computer Interface
Solar Power Satellites
Wireless Power Transmission
Exoskeletons
Regenerative Medicine
Brain Scanning
4D Printing
Cryonics
Full Brain Simulation
Emerging and Future Accelerators
14Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services LimitedCopyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Intersections Amplify both Power and Impact
Renewable Energy
Internet of Things
Cloud
Big Data - Analytics
Sharing Economy
Mobile
Cognitive Systems
Transport 2.0Logistics Internet
Nanotechnology
Robotics
Genomics
Circular Economy
Connected HealthcareSmart Cities
Connected Car Smart Homes
Maker EconomyEnergy Internet
Healthy Life ExtensionAutonomous Vehicles
3D Printing
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4
5
3
6
7
8
2
15Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services LimitedCopyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
The Reciprocal Nature of Societal Factors
Fall in Working Age Population
Decline in Fertility Rates
Technological Unemployment
Aging Population
Automation of Everything
16Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart HomesArtificial Narrow Intelligence
Connected Healthcare
Automation of Everything
Maker Economy
Smart Grid
Energy Internet
Healthy Life Extension
Next Generation Education
Smart Cities
Connected Car
Circular Economy
Logistics Internet
Radical Life Extension
Artificial Super Intelligence
Sharing Economy
Decentralization of Everything
Human-Machine Convergence
Artificial General Intelligence
Human 2.0
Democracy 2.0
Money 2.0
Empowerment Economy
Transport 2.0
De-Extinction
Cyberwar
Institution 2.0
Food 2.0
Artificial Narrow Intelligence
Artificial Super Intelligence
Artificial General Intelligence
Source: Ray Kurzweil
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Structural change is inevitable
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Vertical to Horizontal
Centralized to Decentralized
Hierarchy to Enabled-Edge
Unbundling - Fragmentation
Asset-Heavy to Asset-Light
Consumer to Producer
Scarcity to Abundance
Management Paradigms
Organizing Principles
SocietalShifts
Operating Principles
EconomyOperating
Environment
Cultural conflict
Pressure on Structure
Transforming the Professions
19Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Vertical to Horizontal Shift
EcosystemPurpose
IndustryHyper-productivity
AgricultureAccountingAdvertisingAerospaceAircraftAirlineApparelAutomotiveBankingBroadcastingBrokerageBiotechnologyCargoChemicalComputerConsultingConsumer Products
CosmeticsDatingDefenseDepartment StoresEducationElectronicsEnergyEntertainmentFin ServicesFitnessFood & BeverageGroceryHealthcareInsuranceInternetInvestmentLegal
ManufacturingMotion PictureMusicNewspapersPharmaceuticalPrivate EquityReal EstateRetailSECServiceSoftwareSportsTechnologyTelecomTransportationVenture Capital
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Wellness
Maker
Resources
Value
Mobility
Growth
Spaces
Leisure
Community
The Human Cloud
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AI - Analytics
Automated production
Robotics
Communities of Practice
Crowdsourcing
Online Services
App-based Support
Do it Yourself Research
Personalization
Mass customization
Virtual environments
Transforming the Professions
Education Healthcare Law Tax & Audit Architecture DivinityManagement
Consulting Journalism
Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited 20
More change to institutions and professions in the next 20 years, than in the previous 300
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The Value Shift
Value
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Value is increasingly generated by
new types of assets: algorithms,
data, networks, and softwareSource: McKinsey Global Institute
Value Design
Future Value
increasingly
accrues to
consumers
1Source: Mckinsey Global Institute - playing to win: the new global competition for corporate profits
Telecom Firms
Consumers
Skype
$37 Billion1
Loss
$2 Billion
$37 Billion1
Gain
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The challenge is to rehearse the future and prepare for a range of possibilities
Source: Fast Future Research
Scenarios
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What if autonomous vehicles replace all drivers and eliminate car
ownership?
25Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
90% of auto insurance premiums could disappearTraffic accidents reduced by 90%Hospital and health insurer revenue could be reduced as car related injuries plummetGovernments lose fines as cars obey traffic lawsParking operators and municipal revenues underminedCar-related cases disappear for personal-injury lawyersBody shops would mostly disappear for lack of businessMany parts disappear from cars affecting many parts suppliersHotels and motels affected as people sleep in the comfort of self-driven vehiclesCar dealers are disintermediated by driverless cars sold as large fleetsIncreased vehicle utilization drives accelerated replacement cyclesCriminal and terrorist activity accelerates70 % of existing cars not needed in the future
Future Scenario: Automotive
Government
New Entrants
Health Insurance
Software Developers
Internet Companies
Auto-Makers
Car Dealer
Parking Lot Operators
Car Insurance
Legal
Oil & Gas
Hospital
Consumer Electronics
Repair Shop
EcosystemCrowd
Staff-on-Demand
Community
Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited 25
26Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Creating a Mobility Ecosystem
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Business models shift to car servicesLand once reserved for parking repurposedChina races ahead to avoid building infrastructureDriverless taxis extend mobilityCars sold to transportation network companiesNew services like food and design emergeCoordination across fleet eliminates battery range problemsUber becomes the central dispatch for driverless taxisA technology giant drives operating system for the car platformThe car intersects with healthcare through health monitoringAs an open platforms apps make the car more productiveMobility service providers accelerate the spread of driverless cars
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We must take control of creating
our future
Ethics
28Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services LimitedCopyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Humanity and technology are intertwining, but technology does not have ethics
Our future likely brings unintended consequences
Ethics
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1995 – 201557% gone from
Fortune 500 50% of 2025 Fortune 500 not
born yet
7,000 more $1 Billion
companies in next 10
years
$30 Trillion annual consumption in
emerging markets by 2025
45% of Fortune 500 come from emerging
markets by 2025
Competitive shifts and
aggressivenessViability
The convergence of multiple shifts
challenges viability
30Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited
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