regions - hazards - people

2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure

Regions – Hazards – PeopleRamon Gilsanz, SE, F.SEI


Center for International EarthScience Information Network

Information Resources

Munich Reinsurance


Population Distribution and Density

Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University)


PopulationHistoric Growth

Population Reference Bureau (in Yeats)

Sani

tatio

n


PopulationDevelopment

Population Reference Bureau (in Yeats)


PopulationUrban vs. Rural

UN Population Division

1950 2150 2350 2550 2750 2950 3150 3350 3550 3750 39500

2

4

6

8

10

12

Wor

ld P

opul

atio

n (in

Bill

ions

)

Rural Population

Urban Population

Total Population


Tectonic Platesand Fault Lines

Yeats, R. “Earthquake Time Bombs”


Geophysical Hazard

Munich RE, NATHAN 2014



Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University) & Munich RE, NATHAN 2014

Geophysical Hazard


World Mining

InfoMine Inc.



Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University), Munich RE, NATHAN 2014 & InfoMine Inc.

World Mining

Geophysical Hazard


Risk = Hazard x Consequence Cost

Vulnerability:World Risk Index

Prof. Michael Fardis said: “don’t consider the probability” (Black Swan)

Prof. I. Towhata said: “don’t believe in the cost-benefit analysis”


Risk = Exposure x Vulnerability

UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014


++xExposure

to Natural HazardsSusceptibilityLikelihood of

Suffering Harm

CopingCapacity to ReduceNegative Impacts

AdaptationCapacity for

Long-Term Change

Measures a country’s exposure, resiliency, response to an event, and preparedness

for future events


Exposure



++xExposure


Suffering Harm



Long-Term Change

• Earthquakes• Storms• Floods• Droughts• Sea level rise


Susceptibility



++xExposure


Suffering Harm



Long-Term Change

• Health and Sanitation• Quality of Construction

(Housing / Slums)• Nutrition• Poverty• Economy (GDP)


Coping



++xExposure


Suffering Harm



Long-Term Change

• Good Governance• Disaster Preparedness• Medical Services• Social & Physical Networks• Insurance


Adaptation



++xExposure


Suffering Harm



Long-Term Change

• Education• Gender Equity• Environmental Regulation• Building Codes & Strategies• Investment


Vulnerability: World Risk Index




Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University) & UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014

Vulnerability: World Risk Index


Geophysical Loss Assessment (1980-2013)

Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 2014


Other Natural Disasters (2014)

Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 2015


Global Loss Events1980 – 2014(by Hazard)

Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE

21,700 Loss events 1,740,000 Fatalities

Overall lossesUS$ 4,200bn

Insured lossesUS$ 1,100bn

Meteorological events(Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

22%40%25%13%

11%

71%10%8%

12%41%36%11%

51%25%13%10%


Global Loss Events1980 – 2014(by Income Group)

Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE

21,700 Loss events 1,740,000 Fatalities

Overall lossesUS$ 4,200bn

Insured lossesUS$ 1,100bn

High incomeGNI > US$12,745(per capita)

High/middle incomeGNI US$4,126 - 12,745(per capita)

Low/middle incomeGNI US$1,046 - 4,125(per capita)

Low incomeGNI < US$1,045(per capita)

44%17%23%16%

8%8%33%51%

61%12%16%

11%

92%5%2%

1%


World’s investment in disaster prevention

=1% world’s investment

in disaster response and recovery

GeoHazards International

Prevention and Response


FEMA Mitigation Grants

Every dollar spent on preventionsaves more in disaster losses

• Earthquakes 1.4 : 1• Wind 4.7 : 1• Flood 5.1 : 1

ASCE Natural Hazards Review

Prevention and Response


Odds of having 2500 year event in 200 years

• Probability of occurring in any given year: 1/2475 = 0.000404 (USGS)

• Probability of not occurring in any given year (1 – 0.000404 = 0.9996)

• Probability of not occurring in 200 years. 0.9996^200 = 0.922 (92.2%)

• Probability of occurring in 200 years (100% - 92.2% = 7.8%)


Source: USGS

Magnitude Change

Ground Motion Change Energy

Change(Displacement)

2 100 times 1,000 times1 10.0 times 32 times

0.5 3.2 times 5.5 times0.3 2.0 times 3 times0.1 1.3 times 1.4 times

Source: CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (via earthquake-report.com)

Japan Chile Ecuador Haiti US US New ZealandEarthquake: Tohoku Maule Pedernales Port au Prince Loma Prieta Northridge Christchurch 2011 2010 2016 2010 1989 1994 2011Magnitude: M 9.0 M 8.8 M 7.8 M 7.0 M 6.9 M 6.7 M 6.3Intensity: IX (Violent) IX (Violent) VIII (Severe) X (Extreme) IX (Violent) IX (Violent) X (Extreme) 15,894 Dead 525 Dead 663 Dead 160-200K Dead 63 Dead 57 Dead 177 DeadLife Loss: 6,152 Injured 28,775 Injured (est.) 3,757 Injured 8,700 Injured 2,164 Injured 2,562 Missing 25 Missing 9 Missing 4 MissingEconomic Loss: $122-$235 Billion $30 Billion $3 Billion $2.3 Billion $5.6-$6 Billion $13-$40 Billion $15-$20 Billion

Earthquake Losses


Haiti – Chile Earthquakes Lethality Comparison

Haitian Earthquake Chilean Earthquake

11% “strongly shaken” died 0.1% “strongly shaken” died

GeoHazards International


Goal


What can we doto reduce risk?

• Become personally aware• Advise the profession• Inform the public• Create political pressure

In the meantime…

Goal


Thank you

regions - hazards - people

Engineering