regional foresight in germany · do not differ much from the regional foresight definition see for...
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REGIONAL FORES IGHT IN GERMANY
K e r s t i n C u h l s
T h e 4 t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e o n F o r e s i g h t , N I S T E P 2 0 1 1
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Mel
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hin
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Competence Centers of F raunhofer IS I
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What is regional? What is Foresight in the Regional context?
2 Cases from Germany:
FAZIT
ZIRP
Lessons Learned
Agenda
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International
National
Regional
Communal
Corporate Foresight
Cascade of Fores ight
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Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions.
Foresight arises from a convergence of trends underlying recent developments in the fields of ‘policy analysis’, ‘strategic planning’ and ‘future studies’. It brings together key agents of change and various sources of knowledge in order to develop strategic visions and anticipatory intelligence. Regional Foresight is the implementation of the five essential elements of Foresight - anticipation, participation, networking, vision and action - at a reduced territorial scale where proximity factors become determinant.
Source: FOREN/ Foresight for Regional Development Network: A Practical Guide toRegional Foresight, European Commission, 2001, Report EUR 20128 EN
What i s Reg iona l Fores ight?
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do not differ much from the regional foresight definition
See for example Georghiou, Luke et. al: The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Concepts and Practice, PRIME Series on Research and Innovation Policy, 2008
Genera l Fores ight Def in i t ions
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Fores ight ( IS I def in i t ion)
Foresight is the
structured debate
about complex futures
structured: systematic approach by applying methods of futures research, science-based, based on new theories of futures research
structured debate: interaction of relevant actors, active preparation for the future ordifferent futures, orientation towards shaping the future
complex: consideration of systemic interdependencies, holistic view
futures: open view on different paths into the future, thinking in alternatives
long- and medium-term view
no planning, but a step on the way to planning (strategic foresight)
no prediction
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different regions in Germany with Foresight approaches
Federal States, e.g. Northrine-Westphalia, Bavaria, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, NRW
with general approaches (agenda-setting)
often: Future Initiatives/ Commissions (Zukunftskommissionen), e.g. ZIRP, Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein
Learning Region Initiatives (partly foresight method application), e.g. Lernende Regionen, Netzwerke –Brandenburg (but: financed by BMBF)
Reg ions in Germany I
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different regions in Germany with Foresight approaches
Transnational regions, e.g. Rhine – Alsace; Four Motors Initiative (FoMoFo) Baden-Württemberg; Kleines Dreieck Zittau – Bogatynia: Hrádek nad Nisou; Euroregion Neiße e.V. etc.
less Foresight, more „Standortpolitik“, strengthening the economy of the region
partly foresight methods are used
Cultural regions, e.g. Baden, Schwaben, Preußen…
„Technology Regions“, e.g. Technologieregion Karlsruhe
Reg ions in Germany I I
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What is regional? What is Foresight in the Regional context?
2 Cases from Germany:
FAZIT
ZIRP
Lessons Learned
Agenda
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non-profit research project for present and future information and media technology andits applications in Baden-Wuerttemberg (State Ministry of BW)
duration of the project: 4 years, Start: 2005
aims:
identification of key drivers for new markets
potential new markets
theoretical background: Regional Systems of Innovation approach (RIS)
Consortium:
MFG Stiftung Baden-Wuerttemberg (executing organisation)
Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)
FAZ IT: a ims, members and theoret ica l background
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FAZ IT: Fores ight-Process by IS I
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Delphi approach in two rounds
with a preparation phase for the statements
Feedback of first round results in the second round: ability for experts to revise their original answers in reaction to the general opinion of the peers
specific group dynamics, anonymity
first round on paper and Internet, second only Internet
Statements/ Topics about international developments that could be relevant for BaWü
Related questions: probability of realisation, influencing and impact factors
Delphi surveys are an established tool in foresight-processes
new: topics about social aspects and technology
FAZ IT 1st De lph i survey "Man and ICT" -Methodology
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Sample: 1089 experts from science, society and industry
second round: 245 respondents
44 theses covering seven sub-fields
topics and statements were selected by literature analysis, expert interviews...
topics in the context of human beings and ICT, influences on each other
criteria: probability of realisation; impacts on society, economy; influencingfactors
time horizon until 2020
FAZ IT De lph i Survey Des ign
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work
leisure time activities
social contacts
education
health
traffic (automotive)
security
FAZ IT Subf ie lds
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Number of Part ic ipants and Response Rate
First round Second round
Addressed 1089 389
Spontaneous answers 21 % 41 %
Answers after reminder 36 % 63 %
Participants 389 245 (=22,5 % base: orginally addressed
persons)
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FAZ IT: Three Delph i Reports
available in English:www.fazit-forschung.det
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FAZ IT: Four Scenar ios
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FAZ IT Roadmap
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What is regional? What is Foresight in the Regional context?
2 Cases from Germany:
FAZIT
ZIRP
Lessons Learned
Agenda
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Awareness-raising for the „driver“ demographic change
Mobilisation of different actors in the Federal State
„low-budget“ foresight
Z IRP :"Future Radar 2030" Object ives
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
40.000 20.000 20.000 40.000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Year of Birth
Age in Years
Population 2050according to Age and Sex
Datenreihen2 Datenreihen4
Men Women
More Men/ More Women
Statistisches Landesamt Rheinland-Pfalz
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
40.000 20.000 20.000 40.000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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Year of Birth
Age in Years
Population 2020 according to Age and Sex
Datenreihen2 Datenreihen4
Men Women
More Men/ More Women
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Future Initiative on the Demographic Change in the Communities in Rhineland-Palatinate
1. Demographic change as a challenge to the local authorities
2. Demographic change as a challenge for the world of work
3. Generations cooperating together in demographic change and
4. New market chances in demographic change.
Z IRP :"Future Radar 2030"
1. Experttalks
2. Experttalks
Expertsurvey
3. Experttalks
Devt. mainthesesB1 2 L3
Public
L ÖCommunity
1 2 B 3 L Ö
Working world
1+2 B+3 L ÖGenerations
1+2+3 B+L Ö
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2004 2005 2006
I
Youth shapes the Future
Market opportunities
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Topic: Municipalities
Material selection, experts
Future Team 1 Future Team 3
1. Future Team Meeting – Work on Parts of Scenarios, Clustering
Clustering and selection of Future Picturesr
Future Team 2
2. Future Team Meeting – Workshop on Future Pictures
Z IRP: Future Radar 2030 Procedures
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Written Expert Survey
ZIRP Advisory Board: Working out Lead Topics
Decision makers and the public
3. Future Team Meeting – Formulation of Measures
Z IRP: Future Radar 2030 Procedures
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What is regional? What is Foresight in the Regional context?
2 Cases from Germany:
FAZIT
ZIRP
Lessons Learned
Agenda
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All regional foresight approaches are different.
Some are like national foresights, others like company (corporate) foresight, internally organised.
Normally, the number of participants differs from national/ international level.
Stakeholders are „closer“, know each other on the regional level – but not asclose as in communal foresight or corporate foresight
Most processes aim at agenda-setting, some for prioritisation, only a few aim at„vision-building“
Methods: in practice more workshop/ Panel approaches, often SWOT approaches
But: all foresight methods possible on the regional level
Choice of methods according to objectives
Some Lessons Learned
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Thank you!
Dr. Kerstin Cuhls
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems andInnovation Research (ISI) Breslauer Straße 48 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany www.isi.fraunhofer.de