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Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships. Developing Infrastructure And Validating Carbon Sequestration Technologies. 21-24 February 2005. John Litynski Environmental Projects Division Presented at: USDA Symposium on Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Sequestration in - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships21-24 February 2005Developing Infrastructure And Validating CarbonSequestration TechnologiesJohn LitynskiEnvironmental Projects Division

    Presented at: USDA Symposium on Greenhouse Gasesand Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Forestry

  • Drivers

  • Renewables 7%98 QuadsFossil fuels provide 86% of energy20022025136 QuadsBy 2020, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 87%Coal23%Nuclear 8%Renewables 6%Oil 39%Gas24%Coal23%Nuclear 6%Oil 40%Gas24%+ 40%Source: AEO 2004Fossil Energy Americas Energy Foundation

  • Speculative GHG Stabilization Scenario to Meet Goals of the Global Climate Change Initiative

    Gt CO2 eq / yearBusiness As UsualU.S. emissions stabilization at 2001 levelGap:5.3 GtCO2 / yrNETL/ARI/Energetics 2004

  • Other Potential DriversFederal Policy Senate bills introducedMcCain Lieberman Mandatory cap and tradeHagle Voluntary reduction, tax incentivesState policy both mandatory and voluntaryOver 25 states drafted and/or passed GHG legislationNE (RGGI) States and CA most aggressive1605(b) GHG Voluntary RegistryGHG Exchange MarketsOverseas Markets (Kyoto)U.S. Voluntary Markets Chicago Climate Exchange

  • Part of the Solution

  • Large Potential Worldwide Storage Capacity200,000Storage OptionDeepOceanDeepSalineFormationsDepletedOil & GasReservoirsCoalSeamsTerrestrialCapacity (GtC)AnnualWorldEmissionsStorage Options: IEA Technical Review (TR4), March 23, 2004Carbon Capture & Sequestration Program @MITWorld Emissions: DOE/EIA, International Energy Outlook 2003, Table A106.5GigatonsPotential Capacity Range

  • Sequestration Enables StabilizationCould Account For > 60% of Gap in 2050DOE/FE/NETL Analysis 2004Efficiency and RenewablesForestation and AgricultureNon-CO2 GHGsCO2 Capture and StorageH2 w/ sequestrationGt CO2 eq / yearAgriculture Significant Role in 2012 (~30%) Smaller role in 2050 (~3%)Bridge to Technology

    Chart2

    00000

    41.96076247592.8888888889113.666666666757.86607561030

    1179.9691107461227.3333333333429533.651462333791.6666666667

    2109.7944670193183.33333333336601783.7647377953550

    Efficiency and Renewables

    Forestation and Agriculture

    Non-CO2 GHGs

    CO2 capture and storage

    Hydrogen w/ sequestration

    US

    U.S. GHG Emissions

    EMISSIONS STABILIAZATION CASE

    Figure --->>>

    Reference Case ScenarioEmissions Stabilization ScenarioRefStab2002

    19906,26662661,709

    Totp-level metrics199020012012202520501990200120122025205020017,04470441,921

    Population (millions over 16)191.6215.4239.1274.3318.6191.6215.4239.1274.3318.620128,39080842,203

    GDP (B$1996$/yr)6,4389,21512,90618,52037,0406,4389,21512,90618,52037,040202510,23677741,818parasitic load20%

    GDP per capita (thousand $/person)33.642.854.067.5116.3344354.067.5116.3205012,32670391,184

    Total GHG emissions (MMmtC/yr)1,7091,9212,2882,7923,6371,7091,9212,2052,1201,920

    Carbon Intensity (tC/MM$)265208.517715198265208.5170.811452

    GHG emissions, MMmtC/yr

    Transportation432507638785922432507638664683

    Electricity, coal438507607727814438507593499237

    Electricity, CC2047698912120476878103

    Electrciity, CT34434857443443485740emissions reduction90%

    Total from Electricity492597723873980492597709634380

    Other energy use435447483562680435447470462474year 2000 use of CO2 for domestic enhanced oil recovery operations8.2

    Total CO2 from energy1,3591,5521,8442,2212,5821,3591,5521,8171,7601,538Proposed amount of CO2 storage geologic formations in 2050 under the atmospheric stabilization scenario772.0

    Terrestrial offsets0.00.00.0(25)(62)(50)

    Hydrogen0.00.00.00.0(25)(150)

    Non-energy CO227364046602736403942

    Total CO21,3861,5881,8842,2672,6421,3861,5881,8321,7121,380

    Non-CO2 GHGs323333404525720323333373408540

    Total GHG1,7091,9212,2882,7923,3621,7091,9212,2052,1201,920

    5133.3333333333

    Assumed annual growth in GDP post 20252.2%Reduction in CO2 from other energy use post 2012 under A.S.0%12%20%2001201220252050

    Assumed annual red. in carbon intensity post 20251.7%Red. In non-energy CO2. post 20010%15%30%Emissions (MMmtC/yr)ref case1,9212,2882,7923,362

    20021,9212,2052,1201,920

    20040.00.00.00.0

    GCCI red18.1%reduction in GHG intensity 2001-2012carbon intensity (kgC/GDP)ref case20817715198

    U.S. Sources of Emissions Reduction2012 gap83.6Gap A.S. - reference in 2012, MMmtC/yr20020.00.00.00.0

    200420817111452

    2004201220252050Table 6. CO2 captured from coal and natural gas fired power plants in 2050 under the atmospheric stabilization scenarioNatural gas$2,151$4,54914.47142156Rest of World7.5Rest of World9.5964.765

    Terrestrial off-sets0256250Coal$2,726$7,58225.76532586Coal$3,825$5,68725.76560616

    Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction031117180Total$2,726$532$586

    Increased use of renewable power021839United States1United States0.4043.7358.5108.5

    Improved efficiency of power plants096393Total$5,976$702$772

    Reduced electricity cons. per GDP004451

    Reduced travel per GDP0.001740

    Improved efficiency of vehicles0.00104198

    GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial0-0741542004201220252050

    Sequestration applied to CO2 vents0123370Efficiency and Renewables0.042.01180.02109.8

    Sequestration from power plants03113417Forestation and Agriculture0.092.9227.3183.3

    Hydrogen w/ sequestration0.0025150Non-CO2 GHGs0.0113.7429.0660.0

    19%22%34%CO2 capture and storage0.057.9533.71783.8

    Total0.0846711,442Hydrogen w/ sequestration0.00.091.7550.0

    Total0.0306.42461.65286.9

    846711,442

    30%9%3%

    (0)0.00.0

    2012

    Terrestrial off-sets25

    Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction31

    Increased use of renewable power2

    Improved efficiency of power plants9

    Reduced electricity cons. per GDP0

    Reduced travel per GDP0

    Improved efficiency of vehicles0

    GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial-0

    Sequestration applied to CO2 vents12

    Sequestration from power plants3

    Hydrogen w/ sequestration0

    2050

    Terrestrial off-sets50

    Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction180

    Increased use of renewable power39

    Improved efficiency of power plants93

    Reduced electricity cons. per GDP51

    Reduced travel per GDP40

    Improved efficiency of vehicles198

    GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial154

    Sequestration applied to CO2 vents70

    Sequestration from power plants417

    Hydrogen w/ sequestration150

    Atmospheric StabilizationReference Scenario

    20010.16660795270.1666079527

    20120.16204789810.16622890132.7%

    20250.11788098040.158039620529.2%

    20500.0526739210.132258778668.4%

    2012

    Reduced demand0

    Increased Renewables2.25

    Improved eff coal8.33

    Improved eff NG0.86

    Coal seq2.78

    NG seq0.68

    Total14.90

    2025

    Reduced demand44

    Increased Renewables18

    Improved eff coal59

    Improved eff NG4

    Coal seq105

    NG seq8

    Total239

    2050

    Reduced demand51

    Increased Renewables39

    Improved eff coal81

    Improved eff NG12

    Coal seq406

    NG seq11

    Total599

    Marginal cost of coal and natural gas fired power plantsmarginal cost of power generation at carbon emissions cost, cents/kWh

    Fuel cost from AEO 2004, table A1Fuel cost $/mmbtuheat rate (btu/kWh)050100220

    2001coal17.79$/ton0.8710,3720.902.253.596.83

    NG4.14$/Mcf4.067,5823.084.075.057.41

    2025coal16.57$/ton0.817,9910.651.682.725.21

    NG4.4$/Mcf4.327,6963.324.325.327.72

    Coal heat content, million Btu per short ton20.511AEO 2003, table H1

    natural gas heat content, Btu/scf1,019AEO 2003, table H1

    Forecast for Natural Gas Weelhead price in 2020, $/scfForecast for Generation from Nuclear Power in 2020, BkWhCarbon Intensity of electricity supply in 2020, kgC/kWhCarbon emissions from electricity supply in 2020, MMmtC/yrElectricity generation in the U.S. in 2020 BkWhTotal U.S. Carbon emissions forecast for 2020, MMmtC/yr

    AEO 20044.288160.155815.252682,055

    AEO 20033.698070.150796.953092,083

    AEO 20023.267020.146790.254302,088

    AEO 20013.135740.146771.552942,041

    AEO 20002.814270.159757.847571,979

    AEO 19992.683590.155745.548171,975

    12%11.8%4%44%

    US

    00

    00

    00

    00

    0

    Ref

    Stab

    Year

    U.S. GHG emissions, million metric tons of carbon

    U.S. Emissions of GHGs under the Reference and Atmospheric Stabilization Scenarios

    Elec supply

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    pdipietro:Data from U.S. census bureau

    Red fields are user inputsBrown fields are data from AEO 04Plum fields are data from other sourcesBlue fields are cacluations

    pdipietro:the average growth rate forecast between 2012 and 2025 in the EIA assessment of S.139 equals 2.0%

    pdipietro:the average annual rate of decrease between 2012 and 2025 in the EIA assessment of S.139 equals 1.4%

    Reductions directly reliant on the Sequestration R&D Program

    Reductions indirectly reliant on the Sequestration R&D Program

    Reductions unrelated to carbon sequestration

    Sequestration from power plants

    Sequestration applied to CO2 vents

    Hydrogen w/ sequestration

    Improved efficiency of power plants

    Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction

    Terrestrial off-sets

    Increased use of renewable power

    Improved efficiency of vehicles

    GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial

    Reduced electricity cons. per GDP

    Reduced travel per GDP

    GHG Emissions Reduction Below Reference Case (MMmtC/yr)

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