Recap of 2008 Presidential Election Results, Explaining Obama’s Win,

Other Ballot Items

Dan Nataf

Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues,

Anne Arundel Community College

Nov. 10, 2008

Presentation goals

• Review election results in historical perspective

• Why did Obama win – was it inevitable?

• Other ballot items

Popular Vote Percentages: 1964-2008

Actual Votes: 1972-2008

Electoral College1968, 1976, 1988, 1992, 2000,

2004

Electoral College 2008

Electoral College Votes 1972-2008

Explanations for Obama’s Win - Was a Democratic Win

Inevitable?

• Generic election, “retrospective voting” OR

• Candidate effect

• Policy effect

• Campaign strategy effect

• Uncontrolled events during the campaign

An Inevitable Democratic Win …

• Generic Election, Retrospective Voting−Verdict on the incumbent party −Party voting dominates−President’s job approval filters votes−Forecast models say economic conditions, job

approval and incumbency (years in office) predetermine outcome

Implications: no affirmative policy mandate other than ‘be better than Bush’• Results oriented mandate

An Inevitable Democratic Win…Common Assumption

“The political environment could not have been worse: an unpopular incumbent; an unpopular, costly war; and an economic calamity.” Ed Rodgers (WH Staffer to R. Reagan and G. H. W. Bush).

“McCain swam upstream against a hugely unpopular Republican president, a horribly unpopular Republican Party and an unpopular war.” Alex Castellanos (Romney consultant, McCain adviser).

An Inevitable Democratic Win…Common Assumption

Hypothesis 1: If a generic election, results will be anticipated well in advance of election day.

• Confirmed:

−6 of 9 political scientists said Obama would win…72-300 days PRIOR to the election

−Range of victory 50.1-58.4 percent−Others: 2 ‘tied’ one at 49 percent−General ‘mean’ prediction: 52-53 percent

– −Results 52-53 percent Obama.

An Inevitable Democratic Win… Generic Election

Hypothesis 2: If a generic election, voters will stick to their party identifications when voting.

Mostly Confirmed

(Data from exit polls)

Percent Party Obama McCain Other/NA

39 Democrat 89 10 1

32 Republican 9 90 1

29 Independent

52 44 4

An Inevitable Democratic Win… Generic Election – Retrospective Voting

Hypothesis 3: If a generic election, retrospective voters who disapprove of President Bush’s job performance will defect and vote for the Democratic candidate.

Mostly confirmed

(Data from exit polls)

Percent Do you approve…

Obama McCain Other/NA

27 Approve 10 89 1

71 Disapprove 67 31 2

Retrospective Voting:Bush’s job approval by party - AA

County

An Inevitable Democratic Win…Generic Election – Retrospective Voting

• Partisan allegiance and Bush job approval (CSLI poll)Percent Party Obama McCain Other/

NA

3 Democrat approve 23 77 0

18 Republican approve 7 84 7

4 Independent approve 0 61 39

37 Democrat disapprove 82 7 11

20 Republican disapprove

19 63 18

11 Independent disapprove

43 23 36

An Inevitable Democratic Win…Generic Election – Retrospective Voting

Hypothesis 4: In a generic election, the incumbent party is systemically behind the challenger party - Mostly confirmed

Not inevitable? Candidate affirmation and symbolic

effects

• Candidate affirmation/Symbol – implies “trustee” mandate

“I…almost lost it when I saw Obama standing there on the [victory speech] stage with his family…I thought of the mind-blowing imagery we will see when this young beautiful black family becomes the nation’s First Family….and this reaction I’m trying to describe isn’t really about Obama’s policies. I’ll disagree with some of his decisions…this moment has less to do with Obama than with the nation.”

(Eugene Robinson WP editorial writer)

“Obama has a wonderful temperament. He knows he has to build real relationships for anything to happen. He doesn’t have them now, but his instincts are perfect.”

(Chris Dodd, Senator D – Conn)

“McCain’s campaign created a great narrative, a great story, but it was only about John McCain…”

(Alex Castellanos)

−Candidate temperament, intellect, image, judgment, background

−Conveyed by:• Ads and convention messages• Possible positive effects of debates, long

primaries• Observed performance under pressure

Not inevitable? Candidate affirmation and symbolic

effects

− Policies advocated widely known and positively evaluated by voters (exit poll) – implies policy mandate

− Hypothesis 5: A generic election will feature most voters attracted to the challenger due more to policy differences than the personal qualities of the candidate. Confirmed

What mattered most?

Obama McCain

Issues 60 38

Personal qualities 39 59Policy Obama McCain

Economy (63%) 53 44

Iraq (10%) 59 39

Terrorism (9%) 13 86

Health care (9%) 73 26

Energy policy (7%) 50 46

Not inevitable? Candidate vs. policy affirmation

− Hypothesis 6: In a generic election, the challenger party candidate focuses on ‘change’ while the incumbent party candidate tries to distance himself from his party and its policies.

− Obama: “You really are George Bush – you just don’t know it”

• Emphasize ‘change’• Play up ‘consensus’ vision, pragmatic approach to policy making • Discount ‘inside the Beltway’ experience• Play it safe – middle class appeal, always applaud McCain’s service to

the country – depersonalize the race• Raise lots of money• Hope for unexpected endorsements

− McCain: “I am NOT George Bush”• Emphasize ‘maverick’ status, also ‘change agent’• Focus on policy splits from Republicans/Bush• Comparative personal biographies – personalize the race• Take chances – “suspend campaign,” pick Palin

Not inevitable? Campaign strategy effects

Critics assumed that McCain could have run a generic campaign and won or that the race was lost due to certain tactical mistakes…

“The Republicans chose tactics – the ‘celebrity ad,’ the choice of Sarah Palin, suspending the campaign – designed to win the news cycle rather than sticking to a strategy that could win the election.”

(Carter Eskew, Gore 2000 chief strategist)

Not inevitable? Campaign strategy effects

Could ONE BIG tactical difference really have changed the outcome?

“Had McCain voted against the bailout of Wall Street firms and backed the Republican alternative, there is no question in my mind he would have won. [Rather than embracing the Bush bailout backed by the Democrats] America was waiting for him to speak out against excessive government spending and against bailing out the Wall Street firms for their greed.”

(Dick Morris, Fox News contributor)

Not inevitable? Campaign strategy effects

Were the ‘controversial’ decisions likely to have been decisive?

“The McCain campaign added to all of the negative circumstances: McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign and rush back to Washington to associate himself with an unpopular…Wall Street “bailout” was inexplicable. Sarah Palin never fully recovered from her interview with Katie Couric. How could that possibly have been a good idea?”

(Ed Rogers)

Not inevitable? Campaign strategy effects

• Were uncontrolled events reinforcing or challenging the generic model? – mostly reinforcing

−Main events:•Iraq – surge works

−McCain says ‘I told you so’−Obama says ‘My approach (get out soon) is

more relevant than ever’

•Economy tanks−Obama says ‘Bush economics got us here –

do you want four more years of the same?’−McCain says ‘Suspend the campaign!’

Not inevitable? Uncontrolled events

Not inevitable? Uncontrolled events

CSLI Fall 2008 Survey

Putting it all together…

Retrospective except for…

Race Obama McCain Other

White (74%) 43% 55% 2%African-American (13%) 95% 4% 1%Latino (9%) 67% 31% 2%Asian (2%) 62% 35% 3%Other (3%) 66% 31% 3%

Age18-29 (18%) 66% 32% 2%30-44 (29%) 52% 46% 2%45-64 (37%) 50% 49% 1%65 and Older (16%) 45% 53% 2%

Retrospective except for…

Education Level  Obama McCainOther/

NANo High School (4%) 63% 35% 2%

H.S. Graduate (20%) 52% 46% 2%

Some College (31%) 51% 47% 2%

College Graduate (28%)

50% 48% 2%

Postgraduate (17%) 58% 40% 2%

Income Obama McCain Other/NA

Under $15,000 (6%)

73% 25% 2%

$15-30,000 (12%) 60% 37% 3%

$30-50,000 (19%) 55% 43% 2%

$50-75,000 (21%) 48% 49% 3%

$75-100,000 (15%) 51% 48% 1%

$100-150,000 (14%)

48% 51% 1%

$150-200,000 (6%) 48% 50% 2%

$200,000 or More (6%)

52% 46% 2%

Harris by County

0.58

0.44

0.30

Pushpins

Election Recap 2008

Harris Vote by County

Harris Vote by County1st Congressional Kratovil Harris Libertarian Obama McCain Kratovil+

Anne Arundel 46.3% 51.2% 2.5% 48.9% 51.1% -2.6%

Baltimore County 40.7% 56.9% 2.4% 56.8% 43.2% -16.1%

Caroline 51.8% 45.1% 3.1% 37.9% 62.1% 13.8%

Cecil 49.4% 47.5% 3.1% 42.4% 57.6% 7.0%

Dorchester 56.4% 40.7% 2.9% 45.5% 54.5% 10.9%

Harford 40.5% 56.7% 2.8% 40.2% 59.8% 0.4%

Kent 65.5% 32.7% 1.8% 50.0% 50.0% 15.5%

Queen Anne’s 54.0% 44.2% 1.8% 36.1% 63.9% 17.9%

Somerset 59.0% 39.2% 1.8% 48.6% 51.4% 10.4%

Talbot 55.0% 43.1% 1.9% 44.6% 55.4% 10.4%

Wicomico 56.0% 42.0% 2.0% 46.8% 53.2% 9.2%

Worcester 53.2% 44.8% 2.0% 42.1% 57.9% 11.1%

Total 49.1% 48.5% 2.4% 45.0% 55.0% 4.1%

Presence of Slots by State

Slots, usually within casinos

No slots

Limited slots

Legalize Slots 2008 – by County

slots by County

68%

59%

50%

Maryland/AA County (same)

For 59%

Against 41%

States with Early Voting/Absentee

No excuse absentee

Excused absentee

States with In-person No Excuse Early VotingMaryland Vote: For 72% Against 28% Anne Arundel County: For 63%

Against 37%

No excuse early voting

No early voting

All mail

Questions A/B – Charter Amendments,

• To amend the Charter of Anne Arundel County to clarify that any ordinance passed by the County Council and returned unsigned by the County Executive after the ten day presentation period will become law on the tenth day.

Vote: For 106,566 (48.4%) Against 113,462 (51.6%)

• To amend the Charter of Anne Arundel County to provide that the County Council shall nominate for appointment by the County Executive three of the seven members of the Ethics Commission.

Vote: For 145,150 (67%) Against 71,314 (33%)