president obama’s worldview: implications for russia

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On November 26, Ambassador McFaul gave a presentation, President Obamas Worldview: Implications for Russia, to students at Moscow International University.


  • 1. Michael McFaul U.S. Ambassador to the Russian FederationSpaso House 12/16/2013 Twitter: @McFaul

2. President Obamas Worldview: Implications for Russia 3. Philosophy Win-Win, Not Zero Sum Mutual Respect Most Issues Are Transnational Values Security Economic Development 4. The pursuit of power is no longer a zero-sum game -progress must be shared. -President Obama, Moscow, July 2009 5. Respect To begin with, let me be clear: America wants a strong, peaceful, and prosperous Russia. This belief is rooted in our respect for the Russian people, and a shared history between our nations that goes beyond competition. Despite our past rivalry, our people were allies in the greatest struggle of the last century. - President Obama, Moscow, July 7, 2009 6. Mutual Respect: Commemorating Our Shared Past February 2013 7. Policy Priorities 1. Ending Wars 2. Fighting Al Qaeda and other terrorists 3. Asia-Pacific Rebalance 4. Prague Agenda on Nuclear Weapons 5. Expanding Markets Trans-Pacific Partnership Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Means for strengthening US economy 6. Supporting Universal Values 8. Universal Values So we stand up for universal values because its the right thing to do. But we also know from experience that those who defend these values for their people have been our closest friends and allies, while those who have denied those rights -- whether terrorist groups or tyrannical governments -- have chosen to be our adversaries. -President Obama, UN General Assembly, September 23, 2010 9. Motivations for Promoting Universal Values America supports these values because they are moral, but also because they work The arc of history shows that governments which serve their own people survive and thrive Governments that promote the rule of law, subject their actions to oversight, and allow for independent institutions are more dependable trading partners Democracies have been America's most enduring allies. -President Obama, Moscow, July 7, 2009 10. Means for Achieving Outcomes Engagement with Friends (strengthening alliances) with Partners with Foes Strengthening International Institutions United Nations Security Council Human Rights Council Regional organizations Restoring Americas Image Abroad Use of Force Only as Last Resort 11. Engagement We will defend our people and uphold our values through strength of arms and rule of law. We will show the courage to try and resolve our differences with other nations peacefully not because we are nave about the dangers we face, but because engagement can more durably lift suspicion and fear. - President Obama, Second Inaugural Address, January 2013 12. Practice of Engagement with Russia Between: Leaders Governments Bilateral Presidential Commission Businesses Societies Government engagement of society Peer-to-peer connections 13. Engaging Leaders, 2013 Then-NSA Tom Donilon in Moscow, April Secretary of State Kerry in Moscow, May Secretary of Security Council Patrushev, in DC, May Obama-Putin meeting in Northern Ireland, June Lavrov and Shoigu in DC, August NSA Susan Rice and Ambassador Ushakov, September Obama visit to Russia, September Kerry-Lavrov, multiple meetings and calls 14. Government to Government Engagement: Bilateral Presidential Commission 15. Engaging Business Obama and Medvedev Meeting with Russian and American CEOs 16. Engaging Civil Society 17. Engaging Youth 18. Engaging Political Society 19. Engaging Religious Leaders 20. Fostering Peer-to-Peer Contacts Between: Universities (USRF) Scientists NGO leaders Students Sports Musicians 21. Fields of Unnoticed Cooperation Arctic Space Health and Science Environment and Energy Smart Grid Partnership Program Bering Strait Region 22. RESULTS (The U.S. Perspective) 23. 1. Ending Wars Iraq Russia supported American military withdrawal Russia involved in economic development in IraqAfghanistan Northern Distribution Network Counternarcotics cooperation Fuel supplies Mi-17 helicopters and small arms 24. Afghan Transit and Northern Distribution Network (NDN) Strategic Flexibility for U.S. and ISAF Partners 3,500 total U.S. flights as of August, 2013 660,000 U.S. personnel and troops transited Russia Expanded ground and rail transit through Russia, including reverse transit 53% of sustainment cargo goes through the NDN 75% of supplies transiting NDN go through Russia Over 50,000 containers shipped across Russia 25. 2. Fighting Terrorism Common Enemies, Common Goals Cooperation Afghanistan Boston Shared Commitment to Secure Sochi Olympics Some Analytic Disagreements Arab Spring Afghanistan 26. Preparing for Future CooperationRussian and American Troops Training Together 27. 3. Asia-Pacific Rebalance United States is rebalancing and sees potential for win-win outcomes with Russia in Asia Russia and U.S. are both Pacific powers and have common interests Cooperative efforts APEC in Vladivostok Russian membership in the East Asian Summit 28. 4. Prague Agenda New Start Treaty Close Cooperation on Iran UNSC Resolution 1929 P5+1 Shared interests in North Korea UNSC Resolution 1874 (June 12, 2009) UNSC Resolutions 2087 and 2094 (January and March 2013) Syria eliminating chemical weapons together 29. 5. Expanding Economic Ties Russian Membership in WTO Granting Russia PNTR, Repeal of Jackson-Vanik New Visa Regime: Visas for Russians up 20% since 2012 and 51% since 2010. Over 250,000! 123 Agreement (Civilian Nuclear Cooperation) BPC, including new Innovation and Rule of Law Working Groups G-20 30. U.S.-Russia Bilateral Trade U.S. Exports to Russia hit a record $10.7 billion in 2012. Russia continues to enjoy bilateral trade surplus. 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0Exports (U.S.) 25.0Imports (U.S.) 20.0Bilateral trade15.0 10.0 5.00.0 2006200720082009201020112012 31. Value of Russian Investments in U.S. Russia is the 30th largest source of FDI in the U.S.* As of 2012, Russian companies hold $7.3 billion in FDI stock in the U.S.* Russian affiliates employ more than 13,200 Americans in the U.S. (per 2010 statistics)*Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 32. Value of U.S. Investments in Russia U.S. is the 3rd largest source of FDI in Russia* As of 2012, U.S. companies hold $14 billion in FDI stock in Russia* U.S. affiliates employ more than 112,000 Russians in Russia***Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis **Conservative estimate based on employment statistics the 13 largest U.S. investors in Russia. 33. Top U.S. Investors in Russia Company NameInvestmentIndustryExxonMobil$10 billionOil & GasBoeing$7 billionAircraftChevron$4 billionOil & GasConoco Phillips$4 billionOil & GasPepsi$4 billionConsumerCoca-Cola$3 billionConsumerFord$2 billionAutoGeneral Motors$2 billionAutoJohn Deere$500 millionManufacturingIntel$500 million*Technology 34. Major Russian Investors in the US Company NameInvestmentIndustrySeverstal North America$3.5 billionSteelEvraz$2.46 billionSteelTMK Pipe$1.2 billion+Steel PipeDigital Sky Technologies$1.08 billionICT (Facebook, Twitter, etc)Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK)$1 billionSteelRusNano$760 millionMedicalMechel$436 millionCoal 35. Innovation Bloombergs Global Innovation Index 2013: U.S. 1st; Russia 14thWhy cooperate: Facilitate connections create opportunity share ideas on increasing the competitiveness of both innovative economiesHow: Private partnerships: -U.S.-Russia Innovation Working Group: Developing connections between innovative regions Improving the legal framework for innovation Sharing best practices on commercialization-Spaso Innovation Series: U.S. innovation thought leaders to Russia-Skolkovo- MIT 36. 6. Supporting Universal Values: Challenges Arab Spring Internal Developments in Russia Ouster of USAID Information campaign against U.S., inflaming antiAmericanism Problematic laws (NGO registration laws, treason law, LGBT legislation) Renunciation of adoption agreement Ban on U.S. Parents Adopting Russian Children 37. Where Are We Now? Fundamentals of the US approach to Russia are the same now as before. We honestly assess differences with Russia, e.g. antiAmericanism, human rights, bilateral disputes over Magnitsky, Snowden, etc. However, as we are demonstrating on the issue of Syrias chemical weapons or Irans nuclear program, our leaders are able to work together even on these most contentious issues. 38. Near Term Agenda Resolving the Syria crisis Nonproliferation (Iran and North Korea) Reducing Nuclear Stockpiles Missile Defense Cooperation Increasing Trade and Investment Increasing Society-to-Society Ties 39. Syria Shared Objectives End the bloodshed and ease the humanitarian crisis Eliminate Syrian chemical weapons Foster political transition Avoid state collapse Address threat of extremism Different Perspectives, but New Momentum Presidents at G20, Kerry-Lavrov in Geneva in September The structure of Geneva II Dialogue, and Asads departure are unresolved issues, but UNSCR 2118 Unanimous Agreement to Eliminate Syrian CW, is a product of U.S.-Russia diplomacy and collaboration with OPCW and key international partners. 40. Iran Diplomacy opened up a new path toward a world that is more secure -a future in which we can verify that Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and that it cannot build a nuclear weapon. President Obama November 23, 2013 41. Key points of the agreement: Iran has committed to: Halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technical connections required to enrich above 5%. To neutralize its stockpile of near-20% uranium. Not install additional centrifuges of any type and to limit production of centrifuges to those needed to replace damaged machines. To provide daily access by IAEA inspectors at Natanz and Fordow. 42. Key points of the Agreement continued In return for these steps, the P5+1 have committed to: Not impos