Real World Challenges in Communicating

Governance Reform

PREM Learning WeekApril 2007

Paul MitchellDevelopment Communication Division

The World Bank

WORLD BANK STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION KNOWLEDGE AND LEARNING PROGRAM

“…effective political risk analysis is not just a question of evaluating a country risk. Instead, risk assessment must identify the implications of social, political and economic conditions of each particular development intervention.

The key to analyzing the political risks facing a project is to identify the winners and losers and assess their relative ability to help or hinder a project, whether directly or by influencing others.”

Defining Political Risk

Greatest Weakness of the World Bank"Which one of the following do you identify as the Bank's single greatest weakness in its work in ____?"

3%

11%

13%

18%

21%

29%

1%

1%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Too small a player relative to ____'seconomy

Fails to adapt global knowledge tolocal conditions

Is arrogant in its approach

Staff too inaccessible

Too influenced by the US

Other

Not exploring alternate policyoptions

Too bureaucratic in its operationalpolicies and procedures

Imposing technocratic solutionswithout regard to political realities

Percentage of Respondents (N=2,436)

Political risk is highly contextual

• Issue• Time• Place • Who is involved• External environment

Dimensions of political risk

• Who is involved?• What influence can they exert? • Will they use it and to what degree?• What impact will it have?

Political Risk is DYNAMIC

Unlike other analysis - financial,

social, environmental -

Political Risk Analysis

can change very quickly

Political Economy

"Often economic reforms failed either because the government was not committedto them or because the government underestimated opposition to reforms and was unable to carry them through. An insufficient understanding of the political economy of reforms and the nature of the state may have lead the Bank in some casesto push reforms that stood little chance of success." ¹

¹ From OED What Have We learned? Some Preliminary Lessons from OED's Review of Country Assistance Evaluations over a ten year period. September 2004

Design Counts … but Not for Everything

• Experience in countries such as Poland and Russia (coal restructuring) and Bulgaria (pension reform) shows that however well designed a reform, its rate of progress is largely determined by the government’s ownership of it and degree of consensus it is able to mobilize in the society at large.

• Programs to generate stakeholder awareness and participation should be replicated widely

OED 2004 Report “Economies in Transition” focus on Bank work in ECA since 1989.

Political risk and communication A presidential view

“If we want to he helpful to governments it is important to understand the

political environment in which they are operating. Another area for

communication is how to improve the Bank’s ability to understand and

navigate the political circumstances of the world we live in and work with

political analysis and risk assessment.”

Paul Wolfowitz, President World Bank, May 2006 CommNet Forum

The cost of not communicating

Hydro Quebec estimated that the lack of adequate communication with indigenous peoples regarding their hydropower scheme in North Quebec,led to controversies that caused projects delays of over 20 years, costing the company an estimated US$ 278million

Presentation by John Paul Murdoch, Legal Counsel Cree Nation, Hydro-Quebec, World Bank Energy Week 2005.

Project CyclePRSP

&

CAS

Identification Preparation Appraisal Approval Evaluation

Implementation

Country Portfolio Review

Analysis

Communication Program Performance and Impact Evaluation

Strategy and Communication

Component Design

Client Survey

Project Cycle Phase

DevComm Program Phase

• Communication Based Assessment

• Socio Political Risk Assessment

• Consultation schemes

• Public Opinion Research

• Project Document Inputs

• Communication Program Implementation Plan

• Capacity building

• Technical Assistance

• Advice

• Supervision

Interventions and Products

KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS

Communication Program

Implementation

Monitoring and

Evaluation

Research

Communication Audit Assesses Communication Needs for an Initiative

• Identifies roadblocks for a project/initiative,

evaluates opponents’ strategies• Analyzes political, social, cultural environment• Segments audiences based on their positions• Assesses communication capacity of government,

media, and others involved, designs training• Identifies partners and local communication

professionals• Develops preliminary communication plan

Client Survey: Importance vs. Effectiveness

Sector Analysis

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

3.30

3.40

3.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.44 3.54 3.64 3.74 3.84 3.94 4.04 4.14 4.24 4.34 4.44

M ean Importance

Me

an

Eff

ec

tiv

en

es

s

High Priority Improvements

StrengthsExceeding Expectations

Improvements

Reduce Poverty

Economic Growth

Transparency in Governance

Private Sector

Decentralization Policies

Regulatory Framework

Public Sector

EducationHealth

Corruption

Protect Poor

Energy Sector

Natural Resources Management

Gender

Water Resource Mgmt.

Infrastructure

Support for Low Performing States

Urban Quality of Life

Access to Basic ServicesAccountability

The Reality of Institutional SettingsThe Reality of Institutional Settings

Ministry of Infrastructure

CONFLICTWater Quality Issues

CONFLICTWater Rights

CONFLICTRegulation of Service Providers

Provincial Government Unions

CONFLICTMinistry of Health

Water Authority

CONFLICT

MunicipalitiesEPA

CONFLICT

CONFLICTEIAs of providers

Users

Water Sector Institutions in the Province of Buenos Aires

Congress CourtsMedia

National Government

Service Providers

Regulator

Gustavo Saltiel, Urban Water Supply Practice Retreat

Main Audiences & AnalysisMain Audiences & Analysis

•Employees

•Whole Sellers/•Distributors

•Politicians•Importers of Foreign Brands

Consumers

•Wheat Growers

•Wheat Growers•Other Brewers

•Govt •Retailers•Bottle Manufacturers

Spouses•Bottle Manufacturers

•Religious Institutions

HARD-CORE ALLIES

ALLIESUNCOMMITTED AND INVOLVED

UNCOMMITTED &

UNIVOLVED

OPPONENTSUNMOVABLE OPPONENTS

•Employees

Tanzanian Brewery Case

WAGP – one pipeline many issues

• Nigeria – land and human rights issues from the Niger Delta;

• Ghana – financial viability ;• Benin – compensation issues form

previous claims;• Togo – in arrears Bank not

engaged.

OECS: Public Sector Reform• General population surveys in 4 OECS countries related to public

sector reform.• Findings show very little frustration with level of service – basic

dissatisfaction but not top of mind at all (it would be a mistake to build a campaign on the negatives of the public sector).

• Most frustration and concern related to crime.• However, findings show recognition that debt is a problem and

desire to become more competitive globally.• Great support for regional integration• Campaign to build support for public sector reform needs to focus

less on frustration related to public sector services and more on public support for greater competitiveness, recognition of the danger of debt, concern about education and crime (related to jobs and youth).

Ghana PSP in Water RestructuringResearch findings may provide political cover:

• General population cares about access to clean water

• General population strongly supports international private sector involvement and presence in Ghana

• General population thinks costs will go up but accept this because they expect quality and service to increase as well

• World Bank: focus groups showed a fairly vocal level of animosity toward World Bank (didn’t emerge as strongly in survey).

5 1

0 %

1 0 %

2 0 %

3 0 %

4 0 %

5 0 %

6 0 %

7 0 %

8 0 %

T ru s t a lo t T ru s t s o m e w h a t D o n o t t r u s t a t a ll

H o w m u c h d o y o u t r u s t e a c h o f th e s e s o u r c e s a b o u t H IV /A ID S ?In fo r m a t io n o n t h e r a d i o

M a g a z in e a n d n e w s p a p e r a rt i c le s

In fo r m a t io n fr o m N G O s

P u b li c h e a lt h i n fo rm a t i o n f r o mg o ve r n m e n t

T e le vis io n p ro g r a m s a b o u t h e a lt h

N u r s e s o r o th e r h e a l t h s p e c i a li s t s

D i s c u s s i o n s w it h fa m i ly / f r ie n d s

M y d o c t o r

( Y O U T H O N L Y ) : D i s c u s s i o n sw i th p a r e n t s

( Y O U T H O N L Y ) : H e a lt h /s e x u a li t yc u r ri c u lu m a t s c h o o l

S o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n r e l a t e d t o H I V / A I D S

Benefit of PSP

28%

53%

11%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A very bad impact A somewhat badimpact

A somewhat goodimpact

A very good impact

Perc

enta

ge o

f R

esp

ondents

“In general, to what degree do you think Private Sector Participation in water service and delivery would benefit you as a consumer? Do you think it would have a very good impact, a somewhat good impact, a somewhat bad impact, or a very bad impact…?

The majority of respondents felt that Private Sector Participation in water service and delivery would have a positive impact on them. (Note: This question was asked after the concept of PSP was explained to respondents.)

Water Quality and Safety Issues

2%4%

5%

16%

32%

41%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Availability Quality/Treatment

Delivery/Distribution

Price Maintenanceof pipes and

system

Customerservice

Perc

enta

ge o

f R

esp

ondents

“When you think about water – which one of the following is most important to you?”

In Ghana, 41% of respondents ranked Availability as the most important water issue, followed by Quality (32%), and Delivery/Distribution (16%)

Players

“I am going to read out some stakeholders in Ghana. I’d like you to tell me what kind of impact they have on Ghana… a very good impact, a somewhat good impact, a somewhat bad impact, or a very bad impact.” (Percentage of respondents giving each response.)

The national government, local media, and religious leaders were perceived as having the most positive impact on Ghana.

StakeholdersVery bad impact

Somewhat bad impact

Somewhat good impact

Very good impact

National government 2% 5% 30% 64%

Local media 1% 4% 36% 59%

Religious leaders in Ghana 1% 5% 36% 58%

International NGOs 1% 3% 39% 57%

The World Bank 4% 8% 37% 52%

International private sector 2% 7% 46% 46%

The IMF 5% 9% 40% 45%

Local NGOs 1% 5% 49% 45%

Local private sector 1% 7% 48% 44%

International media 2% 10% 46% 43%

ISODEC 1% 6% 54% 40%

Rudolf Amenga-Etego 1% 12% 59% 30%

Politicians 17% 24% 37% 22%

What Have We LearnedRisks of Not Incorporating

Communication Programs into Urban Water Projects

• Some communication programs are not addressing real needs of projects

• Failed projects put Bank’s reputational risk on the line• Projects are being delayed because of vocal

opposition (even from small minority groups)• Poor understanding of the political issues led the

Bank in some cases to push reforms that stood little chance of success

• Opposition can draw global attention