Real World Challenges in Communicating Governance Reform PREM Learning Week April 2007 Paul Mitchell Development Communication Division The World Bank

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<ul><li> Slide 1 </li> <li> Real World Challenges in Communicating Governance Reform PREM Learning Week April 2007 Paul Mitchell Development Communication Division The World Bank WORLD BANK STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION KNOWLEDGE AND LEARNING PROGRAM </li> <li> Slide 2 </li> <li> effective political risk analysis is not just a question of evaluating a country risk. Instead, risk assessment must identify the implications of social, political and economic conditions of each particular development intervention. The key to analyzing the political risks facing a project is to identify the winners and losers and assess their relative ability to help or hinder a project, whether directly or by influencing others. Defining Political Risk </li> <li> Slide 3 </li> <li> Slide 4 </li> <li> Political risk is highly contextual Issue Time Place Who is involved External environment </li> <li> Slide 5 </li> <li> Dimensions of political risk Who is involved? What influence can they exert? Will they use it and to what degree? What impact will it have? </li> <li> Slide 6 </li> <li> Political Risk is DYNAMIC Unlike other analysis - financial, social, environmental - Political Risk Analysis can change very quickly </li> <li> Slide 7 </li> <li> Political Economy "Often economic reforms failed either because the government was not committed to them or because the government underestimated opposition to reforms and was unable to carry them through. An insufficient understanding of the political economy of reforms and the nature of the state may have lead the Bank in some cases to push reforms that stood little chance of success." From OED What Have We learned? Some Preliminary Lessons from OED's Review of Country Assistance Evaluations over a ten year period. September 2004 </li> <li> Slide 8 </li> <li> Design Counts but Not for Everything Experience in countries such as Poland and Russia (coal restructuring) and Bulgaria (pension reform) shows that however well designed a reform, its rate of progress is largely determined by the governments ownership of it and degree of consensus it is able to mobilize in the society at large. Programs to generate stakeholder awareness and participation should be replicated widely OED 2004 Report Economies in Transition focus on Bank work in ECA since 1989. </li> <li> Slide 9 </li> <li> Political risk and communication A presidential view If we want to he helpful to governments it is important to understand the political environment in which they are operating. Another area for communication is how to improve the Banks ability to understand and navigate the political circumstances of the world we live in and work with political analysis and risk assessment. Paul Wolfowitz, President World Bank, May 2006 CommNet Forum </li> <li> Slide 10 </li> <li> The cost of not communicating Hydro Quebec estimated that the lack of adequate communication with indigenous peoples regarding their hydropower scheme in North Quebec, led to controversies that caused projects delays of over 20 years, costing the company an estimated US$ 278 million Presentation by John Paul Murdoch, Legal Counsel Cree Nation, Hydro-Quebec, World Bank Energy Week 2005. </li> <li> Slide 11 </li> <li> Project Cycle PRSP &amp; CAS Identification PreparationAppraisalApprovalEvaluation Implementation Country Portfolio Review Analysis Communication Program Performance and Impact Evaluation Strategy and Communication Component Design Client Survey Project Cycle Phase DevComm Program Phase Communication Based Assessment Socio Political Risk Assessment Consultation schemes Public Opinion Research Project Document Inputs Communication Program Implementation Plan Capacity building Technical Assistance Advice Supervision Interventions and Products KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS Communication Program Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Research </li> <li> Slide 12 </li> <li> Communication Audit Assesses Communication Needs for an Initiative Identifies roadblocks for a project/initiative, evaluates opponents strategies Analyzes political, social, cultural environment Segments audiences based on their positions Assesses communication capacity of government, media, and others involved, designs training Identifies partners and local communication professionals Develops preliminary communication plan </li> <li> Slide 13 </li> <li> Client Survey: Importance vs. Effectiveness Sector Analysis </li> <li> Slide 14 </li> <li> The Reality of Institutional Settings The Reality of Institutional Settings Ministry of Infrastructure CONFLICT Water Quality Issues CONFLICT Water Rights CONFLICT Regulation of Service Providers Provincial Government Unions CONFLICT Ministry of Health Water Authority CONFLICT Municipalities EPA CONFLICT EIAs of providers Users Water Sector Institutions in the Province of Buenos Aires Congress Courts Media National Government Service Providers Regulator Gustavo Saltiel, Urban Water Supply Practice Retreat </li> <li> Slide 15 </li> <li> Main Audiences &amp; Analysis Employees Whole Sellers/ Distributors PoliticiansImporters of Foreign Brands Consumers Wheat Growers Other Brewers Govt RetailersBottle Manufacturers SpousesBottle Manufacturers Religious Institutions HARD-CORE ALLIES ALLIESUNCOMMITTED AND INVOLVED UNCOMMITT ED &amp; UNIVOLVED OPPONENTSUNMOVABLE OPPONENTS Employees Tanzanian Brewery Case </li> <li> Slide 16 </li> <li> WAGP one pipeline many issues Nigeria land and human rights issues from the Niger Delta; Ghana financial viability ; Benin compensation issues form previous claims; Togo in arrears Bank not engaged. </li> <li> Slide 17 </li> <li> OECS: Public Sector Reform General population surveys in 4 OECS countries related to public sector reform. Findings show very little frustration with level of service basic dissatisfaction but not top of mind at all (it would be a mistake to build a campaign on the negatives of the public sector). Most frustration and concern related to crime. However, findings show recognition that debt is a problem and desire to become more competitive globally. Great support for regional integration Campaign to build support for public sector reform needs to focus less on frustration related to public sector services and more on public support for greater competitiveness, recognition of the danger of debt, concern about education and crime (related to jobs and youth). </li> <li> Slide 18 </li> <li> Ghana PSP in Water Restructuring Research findings may provide political cover: General population cares about access to clean water General population strongly supports international private sector involvement and presence in Ghana General population thinks costs will go up but accept this because they expect quality and service to increase as well World Bank: focus groups showed a fairly vocal level of animosity toward World Bank (didnt emerge as strongly in survey). </li> <li> Slide 19 </li> <li> Slide 20 </li> <li> Benefit of PSP In general, to what degree do you think Private Sector Participation in water service and delivery would benefit you as a consumer? Do you think it would have a very good impact, a somewhat good impact, a somewhat bad impact, or a very bad impact? The majority of respondents felt that Private Sector Participation in water service and delivery would have a positive impact on them. (Note: This question was asked after the concept of PSP was explained to respondents.) </li> <li> Slide 21 </li> <li> Water Quality and Safety Issues When you think about water which one of the following is most important to you? In Ghana, 41% of respondents ranked Availability as the most important water issue, followed by Quality (32%), and Delivery/Distribution (16%) </li> <li> Slide 22 </li> <li> Players I am going to read out some stakeholders in Ghana. Id like you to tell me what kind of impact they have on Ghana a very good impact, a somewhat good impact, a somewhat bad impact, or a very bad impact. (Percentage of respondents giving each response.) The national government, local media, and religious leaders were perceived as having the most positive impact on Ghana. Stakeholders Very bad impact Somewhat bad impact Somewhat good impact Very good impact National government2%5%30%64% Local media1%4%36%59% Religious leaders in Ghana1%5%36%58% International NGOs1%3%39%57% The World Bank4%8%37%52% International private sector2%7%46% The IMF5%9%40%45% Local NGOs1%5%49%45% Local private sector1%7%48%44% International media2%10%46%43% ISODEC1%6%54%40% Rudolf Amenga-Etego1%12%59%30% Politicians17%24%37%22% </li> <li> Slide 23 </li> <li> What Have We Learned Risks of Not Incorporating Communication Programs into Urban Water Projects Some communication programs are not addressing real needs of projects Failed projects put Banks reputational risk on the line Projects are being delayed because of vocal opposition (even from small minority groups) Poor understanding of the political issues led the Bank in some cases to push reforms that stood little chance of success Opposition can draw global attention </li> </ul>