r&d in the fy 2017 budget request - research...
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Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 1
R&D in the FY 2017 Budget Request
Matt Hourihan March 23, 2016 http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 2
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National R&D IntensityGross R&D investment as a percent of GDP
South Korea
Finland
Japan
Taiwan
Germany
U.S.
France
EU-28
China
UK
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, January 2016. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 3
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Federal Spending Since FY 2010Percent change from FY10 levels, constant dollars
Base DiscretionaryCaps
DOE AppliedPrograms*
NSF
DOE Science
NIH
NASA
USDA R&D
DOD S&T
*Includes EERE, OE, Fossil, Nuclear; excludes ARPA-E (regular appropriations began in FY 2011). Based on AAAS analyses of historical OMB , agency, and appropriations data and the President's FY 2017 request. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 4
Defense Discretionary*
$529[Defense R&D]*
$79
Nondefense Discretionary*
$557
[Nondefense R&D]*$68
Social Security$967
Medicare$598
Medicaid$386
Other Mandatory$656
Net Interest$303
Composition of the Proposed FY 2017 BudgetTotal Outlays = $4.1 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
*Approximately $4 billion for R&D is classified as mandatory spending. Figures are estimates.Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2017 . Projected deficit is $503 billion. © AAAS | Feb. 2016
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 5
DOD, $73.2
HHS (NIH), $32.7
DOE, $17.4
NASA, $12.0
NSF, $6.5
USDA, $2.9
Commerce, $1.9
All Other, $6.2
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2017budget authority in billions of dollars, including new mandatory
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2016 AAAS
Total R&D = $152.9 billion
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 6
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Basic Research
Nondefense
Defense
TOTAL
DOD S&T
NASA
Environ Protection Agency
NOAA
Homeland Security
National Institutes of Health
Veterans Affairs
DOD Development
NIST
DOE Science
National Science Foundation
Agriculture
Transportation
US Geological Survey
DOE Defense
DOE Energy Programs
Current Estimates of Total R&D in FY17 Budgetpercent change from FY16, nominal dollars, including new mandatory proposals
Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. © AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 7
NEW Mandatory Funding in FY 2017
$4.2 billion for R&D, all nondefense
Select agency funding (including R&D and non-R&D spending): $2.0 billion for NIST $1.825 billion for NIH $1.6 million for DOE* $763 million for NASA* $400 million for NSF $325 million for USDA $300 million for EPA* $200 million for DOT R&D (plus additional non-R&D)* *Some or all funding via to 21st Century Transportation Plan
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 8
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Basic Research
Nondefense
Defense
TOTAL
DOD S&T
NASA
Environ Protection Agency
NOAA
Homeland Security
National Institutes of Health
Veterans Affairs
DOD Development
NIST
DOE Science
National Science Foundation
Agriculture
Transportation
US Geological Survey
DOE Defense
DOE Energy Programs
Current Estimates of Total R&D in FY17 Budgetpercent change from FY16, nominal dollars, including new mandatory proposals
Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. © AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 9
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Basic Research
Nondefense
Defense
TOTAL
DOD S&T
NASA
Environ Protection Agency
NOAA
Homeland Security
National Institutes of Health
Veterans Affairs
DOD Development
NIST
DOE Science
National Science Foundation
Agriculture
Transportation
US Geological Survey
DOE Defense
DOE Energy Programs
Current Estimates of Total R&D in FY17 Budgetpercent change from FY16, nominal dollars, excluding new mandatory proposals
Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. © AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 10
4.2%
-4.6%
-2.7%
-0.5%
2.6%
3.2%
4.0%
6.4%
11.5%
22.8%
38.6%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
TOTAL
Space
Commerce (NIST)
Justice (DHS)
Health (NIH)
Environment Agencies
Defense Activities
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Agriculture
Transportation
Applied Energy Programs
Total R&D in the FY17 Budget by Functionpercent change from FY 2016, nominal dollars, including new mandatory
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 11
1.4%
-9.5%
-2.7%
-0.5%
-2.6%
3.2%
4.0%
2.3%
-2.3%
-1.9%
19.8%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
TOTAL
Space
Commerce (NIST)
Justice (DHS)
Health (NIH)
Environment Agencies
Defense Activities
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Agriculture
Transportation
Applied Energy Programs
R&D in the FY17 Base Budget by Functionpercent change from FY 2016, nominal dollars, excluding new mandatory
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 12
DOD, $73.2
HHS (NIH), $30.9
DOE, $16.6
NASA, $11.3
NSF, $6.2
USDA, $2.6
Commerce, $1.9
All Other, $6.0
Base Budget R&D by Agency, FY 2017budget authority in billions of dollars, excluding new mandatory proposals in FY 2017
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2016 AAAS
Total base budget R&D = $148.8 billion
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 13
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Total R&D
Defense
Nondefense
ARRA Total
ARRA Defense
ARRA Nondefense
Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1976-2017in billions of constant FY 2016 dollars, excluding mandatory proposals in FY 2017
Source: AAAS analyses of historical budget and agency data and the FY 2017 request. R&D includes conduct and facilities. © AAAS | Feb. 2016
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 14
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
Trends in Federal R&DAs a percent of GDP
Total
Defense
Nondefense
Source: AAAS analyses of historical budget and agency data and the FY 2017 request. GDP figures from OMB. R&D includes conduct and facilities. © AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 15
Agency Highlights: NIH
$33.1 billion program level (+$825 million, +2.6%) OR
$31.3 billion program level (-$1 billion, -3.1%)
Of the $1.825 billion in mandatory spending: $825 million for cancer
research, BRAIN Initiative, Precision Medicine
Remaining $1 billion to keep all other ICs flat
17.5% success rate in FY17
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
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200
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200
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201
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201
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201
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NIH Research Project Grants
# of RPG'sAwarded (leftscale)
RPGSuccessRate (%)(right scale)
Source: NIH agency budget justifications. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 16
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
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$45
$50
National Institutes of Health Budget, 1998-2017budget authority in billions of constant FY 2016 dollars
New Mandatory(FY17)
ARRA Funding
General Med Sci
Cancer
NIAID
Heart Lung Blood
NIDDK
Mental Health
All Other
Source: AAAS data, agency budget documents, and appropriations. Adjusted for biomedical R&D inflation rate (BRDPI). Excludes supplemental FY 2017 Zika proposal and FY 2015 Ebola funding. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 17
Agency Highlights: DOE
SC: $5.7 billion (+6.1%) OR
$5.6 billion (+4.2%) Advanced computing; BER;
BES all with moderate boosts Domestic fusion energy
research cut again (-15.5%) While ITER boosted, again
Applied programs: gains for EERE, ARPA-E, grid (20% or more for each) 21st Century Clean
Transportation Plan Fossil cut, Nuclear flat
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
DOE Office of Science BudgetsBudget Authority in millions of constant FY 2016 dollars
Adv Sci Comp Basic Energy SciBio Env Res Fusion EnergyHigh-Energy Phys Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY17 request. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 18
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
DOE Budgets Indexed to FY 2003new budget authority in constant dollars
EERE
OE
Nuclear
Fossil
ARPA-E
Science
Source: Historical DOE data and the FY 2017 request. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 19
Agency Highlights: NSF
$8.0 billion (+6.7%)
OR
$7.6 billion (+1.3%)
Base budgets for most directorates roughly flat
ENG: boosts for SBIR, ERCs
BIO, MPS: infrastructure v. research?
New research vessels
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
National Science Foundation BudgetBudget Authority in billions of constant FY 2016 dollars
New Mand. NSF ARRA All Other EHR
MREFC Other R&RA SBE CISE
BIO ENG GEO MPS
Source: NSF budget data. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 20
Agency Highlights: NASA
NASA: $19 billion (-1.3%) OR
$18.3 billion (-5.3%) Mandatory spending ($763
million) directed to Science, Aeronautics, Space Technology, Exploration
Familiar contours: Priorities include Earth
Science, Space Technology; also Heliophysics
Asteroid Retrieval Mission Cuts for Planetary Science
(Europa Mission), Exploration (SLS and Orion), Astrophysics
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
NASA Budgets, FY 2007 - FY 2017billions of constant 2016 dollars
New Mandatory ARRA
Other Exploration Systems
Space Operations Space Technology
Aeronautics Science
"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education programs. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 21
Other Notes
DOD S&T: Basic research cut by 9.0%; DARPA +3.7%
USDA: small changes at ARS; AFRI discretionary +7.1%, with an additional $325 million mandatory
NIST, NOAA Research Office, USGS all increased to varying degrees
Zika supplemental: $1.8 billion for CDC, NIH, others
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
ARS ERS NIFA [AFRI*]
USDA R&D Funding Since FY 2010Estimated funding as a percent of FY 2010 levels, constant dollars
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Request
*Also contained within NIFA.
Based on AAAS analyses of agency budget documents. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 22
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Federal Spending Since FY 2010Percent change from FY10 levels, constant dollars
Base DiscretionaryCaps
DOE AppliedPrograms*
NSF
DOE Science
NIH
NASA
USDA R&D
DOD S&T
*Includes EERE, OE, Fossil, Nuclear; excludes ARPA-E (regular appropriations began in FY 2011). Based on AAAS analyses of historical OMB , agency, and appropriations data and the President's FY 2017 request. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 23
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Request
Federal Spending Since FY 2010Percent change from FY10 levels, constant dollars, excluding new mandatory proposals in FY 2017
Base DiscretionaryCaps
DOE AppliedPrograms*
NSF
DOE Science
NIH
NASA
USDA R&D
DOD S&T
*Includes EERE, OE, Fossil, Nuclear; excludes ARPA-E (regular appropriations began in FY 2011). Based on AAAS analyses of historical OMB , agency, and appropriations data and the President's FY 2017 request. © 2016 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 24
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
Total Federal Industry Other
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 25
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Copyright © 2015 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8/26/15 26
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