rating agencies: derated and now berated€¦ · 8 issues and insights mumbai | monday 29 july 2019...

8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS>

MUMBAI | MONDAY 29 JULY 2019

> CHINESE WHISPERS

The findings of the interim reportof a forensic audit by GrantThornton, an audit, tax and advi-

sory firm, engaged by the board of thedisgraced Infrastructure Leasing andFinancial Services Ltd (IL&FS) — detail-ing the gifts and favours that the seniorprofessionals of credit rating agencies(CRAs) have allegedly enjoyed to keep arotting company on a high pedestal —exposed the soft underbelly of India’srating industry.

Till the findings of the report trickleddown in the media, the CRAs were criti-cised for basking in the cool comfort oftheir offices, oblivious of the ground real-ities; they miserably failed in their duediligence and acted only when the writ-ing on the wall was visible to the entireworld. The alleged corrupt practicesindulged in by the rating officials add adirty dimension to this.

Both Icra Ltd and Care Ltd have askedtheir chiefs to go on leave till the investi-gations are complete. India Ratings andResearch Pvt Ltd has said the senior

director in its parent firm, FitchSingapore, is no longer an employeeeven as Crisil Ltd has distanced itselffrom the IL&FS saga, saying it has noth-ing to do with it.

Let’s take a look at the cultural rootsof the CRAs. The big three — Crisil (1987),Icra (1991) and Care (1993) — have allbeen promoted by now-defunct devel-opment financial institutions — ICICILtd, IFCI Ltd and IDBI, respectively. Thesecretariat of then ICICI chairman H TParekh followed an informal process ofaccepting gifts. Every Diwali and NewYear gift was numbered and kept in theconference room of the office till theywere distributed through a draw amongpeons, gardeners, canteen boys andsweepers. The gifts were also sent to anorphanage at Girgaum, southernMumbai. And, of course, the chairman’ssecretariat would send a “thank you”note to all senders, requesting them notto continue with the ritual in future. Iam not aware of the processes followedby IFCI and IDBI.

In the beginning, the bosses of all therating agencies represented the spon-sors and eminent professionals were ontheir boards. The rating committeeswere constituted with members of theboards and care for ethics was an obses-sion. The late R Ravimohan, former MDand CEO of Crisil, once remarked:“Credibility is the most valuable asseton our balance sheet; unfortunatelyaccounting standards do not permitrecording and valuing the same.”

Other rating agencies such as AcuitéRatings & Research Limited (formerlySME Rating Agency of India Ltd, pro-

moted by Small Industries DevelopmentBank of India and Dun & Bradstreet in2005), Brickwork Rating India Pvt Ltd(2008), and India Ratings and Research(in early 2000 Fitch bought stake fromDun & Bradstreet Corporation and raisedit gradually) by and large adopted theculture of the big three.

International tie-ups and technicalassistance — Standard & Poor’s forCrisil, Moody’s Investor Service for Icra,Department for InternationalDevelopment, UK, for Acuite Ratingsand Fitch group for India Ratings —have given further impetus to gover-nance and transparency. The boards ofagencies have adopted governancepolicies defining conflict of interest,disclosure norms and rules for accept-ing gifts, favours and gratifications withpredetermined monetary value. Allthese are documented and a part of theemployee engagement rules and ethicspolicy; the compliance officers (usuallythe company secretaries) are taskedwith their implementation.

Apart from chocolates and dry fruits,office utility articles such as calendars,pens and pen stands, pots and plants,coffee table books feature in the permis-sible list but the employees are expectedto return the gold-plated miniatureGanesha and Lakshmi idols, Montblancpens, smart phones and iPads.Incidentally, the salary and emoluments(including stock options) of rating agen-cy employees are on a par, if not better,than what the banking and financeindustry offers.

Although the Grant Thornton reportdeals with only the IL&FS case, peoplefamiliar with the industry say at least fora few CRAs, the internal norms arerelaxed and it is not difficult to find peoplefrom the rating fraternity enjoying cruisetrips in Greece, Spain and Alaska. The

not-so-senior managers enjoy free staysat cottages in beach resorts (Goa), teaplantations (Coorg), wildlife sanctuaries(Jim Corbett National Park) and hill sta-tions (Shimla), courtesy the rated entities.

Rating is a process-driven exercise;direct interactions with the entities beingrated are restricted. As the rating symbolcaptures “timely payment of interest andprincipal”, the emphasis is on free cashflows and the rated entity’s ability to ser-vice debt obligations (both interest andprincipal). Typically, the CRAs follow anunwritten rule that a minimum of twopeople meet their clients (to weed outany subjectivity in their analysis) and thefocus is on business model, competitionand professional competence apart fromparentage and succession planningamong other things, while evaluatingcompanies raising debt.

For all rating exercises (new as wellas surveillance), apart from a primaryanalyst, there is a principal analyst anda relationship head as well as a sectorspecialist involved. All issues are dis-cussed before a presentation is made to

the rating committee of directors for con-sidering a fresh rating and continua-tion/revision (upward or downward).Now, it seems such a process could besham and ratings can be influenced.

At the beginning of the century, forexpanding their market share, a fewCRAs had introduced an unsolicitedexercise in the garb of visibility ratingsor shadow ratings. They rated compa-nies based on information available inthe public domain. Such ratings werefirst informally shared with the compa-nies and only after they were accepted,the rating exercise would start with anofficial mandate. The products fizzledout after the market regulator camedown heavily on them even though ithas been a global practice. That may bea not-so-proper business practice but thecurrent problem is much deeper.

What needs to be done to cure themaladies? Should the salary and stockoptions of CEOs be ploughed back if theyare found guilty? All raters need to go forSadhguru’s inner engineering (internalcleansing process) through a forensicreview to purge the system if they wantto address the huge trust deficit betweenthe CRAs and the investor community.

Indeed, banks, NBFCs and otherlenders have their own internal ratingsystems but they also need the certifi-cates of the raters. Even the Insolvencyand Bankruptcy Code stipulates invest-ment grade rating from two agencies tomove ahead with a resolution plan forbad debt of at least ~500 crore and more.The onus is on the CRAs to come outclean or face the wrath of the marketsand live in shame.

The columnist, a consulting editor of BusinessStandard, is an author and senior adviser toJana Small Finance Bank Ltd. Twitter:@TamalBandyo

Rating agencies: Derated and now beratedThe onus is on the CRAs to come out clean or facethe wrath of the markets and live in shame

New directionIs the Trinamool Congress workingon a strategy to rope in party whole-timers, a la Communist Party of India(Marxist) and the Bharatiya JanataParty? A party meeting to be heldtoday (July 29) at Kolkata's NazrulMancha has kicked off speculationthat West Bengal's ruling partymight be working in that direction.All MLAs, district- and block-levelleaders are expected to attend themeeting. The state has 77,000booths. Word is that Trinamool willappoint four whole-time membersper booth. The target is to appoint300,000 such members, who will notonly identify and recruit newmembers but will also contribute tothe party's social media strategy.

Naidu raps ‘moving’ membersRajya SabhaChairman MVenkaiahNaidu(pictured) onFriday pulledup members,includingsomeministers, whowere movingabout in theHouse after a

vote was announced on the matter ofreferring the Right to Information(Amendment) Bill to a selectcommittee. The Oppositioncomplained about ministers “trying toinfluence MPs" during the process.“People in authority must be careful...Even individual members are notsupposed to move this side or thatside… If they want to talk to anymember, they are at liberty to talk tothem before the voting process startsand, that too, preferably outside theHouse,” Naidu said. The votingprocess on the Bill had ended in afurore after Bharatiya Janata Partymember C M Ramesh was seencollecting voter slips from TeluguDesam Party MPs. Only officials aresupposed to collect the slips, as perHouse rules.

Powerless in MPMadhya Pradesh health minister TulsiSilawat was left red-faced when theelectricity supply tripped during hisspeech at the Academy ofAdministration in Bhopal last week.Silawat was presenting his ministry'saction plan pertaining toantimicrobial resistance. As the venueplunged into darkness, officials fishedout their mobile phones to turn onsome light. Pictures of peopleswitching on their mobile flashlightswent viral in no time. This is thesecond time in a month that Silawatfaced such a situation. In June, whenhe was discussing the problem ofoutages in hospitals, the electricitysupply had tripped. Indeed, since theCongress government took charge ofthe power-surplus state in December2018, unscheduled cuts have becomethe order of the day.

> LETTERS

Unsolved mysteryThis refers to “Wrapped in mystery” byNivedita Mookerji (July 25). The speed atwhich Oyo Rooms and its founder RiteshAgarwal are moving should draw the attentionof regulators, financial institutions, investorsand above all, the appropriate wing of the gov-ernment. The validity of the WhatsApp mes-sage talking about “another financial scamwaiting to explode” may not be justified as ofnow due to lack of evidence and may bebrushed under the carpet in days to come.The mystery behind the speed of growth isreally adding one layer above another.

The name of one investor — LightspeedVenture — is also interesting. The speed ofroom acquisition, share buyback and IPOplanning is raising the eyebrows of marketwatchers and the common people. Most sur-prising is that Oyo claims to be one of thelargest hotel chains in the world with virtuallynegligible physical assets creation. I complete-ly agree with Ms Mookerji that the modusoperandi of the Oyo group and its founder hasreally left the audience perplexed. Let us notforget the rise and fall of Kingfisher Airlines,Barings Bank, Jet Airways and very recently,Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi.

Sanjoy Dutta Kolkata

India calls the shotsThis refers to “Why does India resist media-tion on Kashmir?” by Aakar Patel (July 26).The topic has gained attention because of acomment by US President Donald Trump dur-ing Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s vis-it to Washington. The columnist has come tothe conclusion that the message sent abroadis that India fears outside diplomatic inter-vention due to some perceived weakness. Theactual message sent out is that India is thedecision-making power in this region and wedo not need anybody to complicate the exist-ing situation.

J K Achuthan Ernakulam

Letters can be mailed, faxed or e-mailed to: The Editor, Business StandardNehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi 110 002 Fax: (011) 23720201 · E-mail: [email protected] letters must have a postal address and telephonenumber

BANKER’S TRUST TAMAL BANDYOPADHYAY

Two big themes emerged fromthis year’s Economic Survey andBudget — one explicit and the

other more implicit. The Survey explic-itly batted for re-stoking investment-ledgrowth. This is foundational. As the con-trasting experiences of Latin Americaand East Asia — as well as India’s ownexperience in the mid-2000s — haverevealed, strong growth can only be sus-tained when underpinned by privateinvestment. Bursts of consumption-driven growth are unsustainablebecause they inevitably spawn imbal-ances, either domestic (higher inflation)or external (wider current accountdeficits). An investment-led strategytherefore has to be the lynchpin for sus-tained 8 per cent growth.

Meanwhile, a key theme emergingfrom the Budget was a conscious strate-gy to rely on greater foreign savings.Hence the Budget enumerated a seriesof measures to attract more FDI, foreignportfolio investment, and issue asovereign dollar bond. The motivationis unsurprising. With household savingsdeclining in recent years (as householdshave dipped into savings to support con-sumption growth) and the public sectorusing up virtually all household finan-cial savings, concerns about private sec-tor crowding-out have progressivelyrisen. On the flip side, the global inter-

est-rate cycle has turned again in 2019with G3 central banks expected to easefurther. Why not tap cheap foreign sav-ings to fill the gap?

While this may alleviate short-termdomestic pressures, a medium-termstrategy to harness foreign savings isincompatible with an investment-ledstrategy to drive domestic growth. Whyis that? Because an investment-led strat-egy is necessarily an export-led strategy.Here’s why.

Investment & exportsIf the investment rate has to rise, thedomestic savings rate must rise in tan-dem. If not, the current account deficit(which is just the investment-savingsgap in an economy) will balloon,increasing macroeconomic uncertaintyand choking off the very investment thatis needed. However, if the savings ratehas to go up, by construction, consump-tion to GDP will have to come down.

But if consumption to GDP is comingdown why would the investment ratebe presumed to go up? Why wouldentrepreneurs accelerate investment ifconsumption growth is slowing? Onlyif exports — the other driver of demand— are growing rapidly to make up thedifference. And therein lies the key:That for any investment-led model tosustain, it must necessarily be drivenby strong exports growth. Otherwise themodel is internally inconsistent andunsustainable. Therefore no countryhas experienced close to double digit-growth without investment and exportsacting in concert.

This combination is exactly whatdrove India in the mid-2000s. Between2001 and 2006, GDP growth averagedalmost 8 per cent, and investmentgrowth averaged 16 per cent a year.Guess what drove investment? Exports— which grew 20 per cent a year in thoseyears. In contrast, private consumptiongrew at 7.2 per cent — less than GDP

growth — such that consumption-GDPfell and the savings rate went up to helpfinance investment. India becameChina-like in the mid-2000s, till theglobal financial crisis hit.

We need an encore. For stronggrowth to sustain, India will need sus-tained investment. But for investmentto be sustained (and financed at home)India will need exports to fire.

Exports & the exchange rate And herein lies the tension. If growth isto be driven by exports, it’s incompatiblewith an excessive reliance on foreignsavings (and the associated capitalinflows) that will put upward pressureon the exchange rate. Thereis a casual belief in India thatexchange rates don’t matterfor exports. However, as wehave previously shown in anempirical analysis at theIndia Policy Form, exchangerates — along with globalgrowth — are a crucial deter-minant of India’s exports.

Export growth surgedbetween 2005 and 2011,growing at 14 per cent a year.Since then, they have slumped to 4 percent average growth. Some of this is,undoubtedly, because of both slowingglobal growth and deglobalisation. But,as we have shown in our IPF paper, someof the export slowdown is alsoattributable to the 20 per cent apprecia-tion of the real effective exchange rate(REER) between 2014 and 2017. To befair, there was little policymakers couldhave done to prevent the appreciationbecause it was the upshot of a large, pos-itive terms of trade shock to the econo-my from lower crude prices along withstrong capital inflows which — as theorysuggests — should cause both actualand equilibrium real exchange rates toappreciate.

As crude prices climbed back up,

the REER depreciated almost 10 percent in 2018, but more than half of thatdepreciation has reversed in recentmonths. All told, therefore, the REERis still almost 15 per cent stronger thanit was five years ago. Some could arguethis is not worrying because it simplyreflects higher productivity growth inIndia. But that hypothesis does not gelwith the fact that India’s underlyingcurrent account balance (ex oil andgold) has consistently worsened overthe last five years — suggesting exter-nal competitiveness is increasinglyunder pressure. If the REER wasreflecting productivity gains, compet-itiveness wouldn’t be getting progres-

sive threatened.

The exchange rate &the trilemmaIt will be hard enough toboost exports in a worldof slowing growth andrising protectionismand nativism. WhatIndia doesn’t need is forthe exchange rate tocompound the chal-lenge. It’s therefore

important for policy not to inadvertentlyinduce further appreciation pressures.The real exchange rate is impacted byseveral factors: productivity differen-tials, terms of trade, government spend-ing, and capital inflows/net foreignassets. Therefore, any policy that aggres-sively attempts to attract capital inflowsrisks inducing more appreciation. In2017-18, for example, capital flowssurged to 3.5 per cent of GDP pushingup the broad REER by almost 5 per centthat year alone.

But couldn’t the RBI intervene toprevent appreciation? For starters,because the real exchange rate is drivenby fundamentals, the central bank can-not meaningfully influence it over anylength of time. Second, even when

attempting to influence the nominalexchange rate, the central bank comesup against the trilemma. With India’sneed for independent monetary policy,the more the capital account is open,the less control policymakers will haveover the exchange rate. To be sure, ster-ilised intervention does give the RBIsome degrees of freedom, but this is notwithout distortions. Over the last twomonths, for example, India hasreceived strong capital inflows after thedecisive May election result. On its part,the RBI has intervened aggressively toprevent a rupee appreciation. Much ofthis has been sterilised by paying for-wards in the foreign exchange market.But this has also contributed to pushingup the forward premium, which willdisincentivise corporates andimporters from hedging, risking finan-cial instability. Similarly, had the RBIintervened only through buying dollarsin the spot market and then soaked outthe liquidity through OMO sales, itwould have pushed up domestic bondyields, and potentially attracted more“carry inflows”. In other words, there’sno free lunch.

All told, therefore, a strategy thatrelies on foreign savings risks puttingmore upward pressure on the realexchange rate and impeding exportgrowth, at a time when exports will haveto catalyse investment.

So what should authorities do? First,don’t resist rupee depreciation, particu-larly if the Chinese yuan is also depreci-ating, because India’s greatest competi-tiveness concerns are vis-à-vis China.Second, avoid excessive reliance on for-eign savings. Instead reduce total publicsector borrowing so that more domesticsavings are available to finance domesticinvestment. Once investment gets a fil-lip, savings will rise in tandem given theirpro-cyclicality. Third, double down onfactor market reform, infrastructure andtransportation logistics to improve exter-nal competitiveness, and expand India’sglobal export share, thereby creating theimpetus for an investment revival.

All this won’t be easy, but isunavoidable if we aspire for sustained8 per cent growth.

The author is chief India economist, JP Morgan

The Budget, the Survey and the trilemma

Aheartbreaking post by RohanSeth, a computer scientistbased in San Francisco, is doing

the rounds on social media. Seth andhis partner, Jen, had a child, Lydia,about six months ago. Soon after birth,she started having seizures. They dis-covered after many tests that “a tinyrandom mutation in a critical gene isaffecting her brain function, causingsevere disabilities and suffering”.

Faced with this situation, Jen andRohan did their research and decidedto “open source their baby in the hopesof saving her, and millions like her”.They set up a non-profit and raised $1.5million to fund research. There is hopebased on a new procedure and the par-ents hope there could be treatmentwithin months.

The Seths discovered that there areonly two other persons known to haveexactly the same genetic mutation. Thenucleotide bases of DNA (deoxyribonu-cleic acid) are adenine, thymine, cyto-sine, and guanine (A, T, C, G). In Lydia’sDNA, the “A” was replaced by a “G” atposition 683 of the gene KCNQ2.

There are six billion-odd charactersin any human’s DNA and this sort of“typo”, as Seth calls a mutation, canoccur anywhere in that string. So con-ventional tests don’t pick it up. Whilenegative mutations affect millions ofpeople worldwide, any given mutationmay be so rare that no pharma compa-ny will bother to research for a poten-

tial treatment.The Seths discovered that there is a

technology called antisense oligonu-cleotides (ASOs) that can silence suchmutations. The first approved ASOdrug only became commercially avail-able in 2016. It is possible to create anASO drug that exactly targets a specificmutation. The mission of the LydianAccelerator is to create an open sourcedatabase of ASO research.

Genetic expression occurs via a pro-cess where the DNA transmits infor-mation to the ribosome via what’sknown as Messenger RNA (mRNAwhere RNA stands for ribonucleicacid). The ribosome is a sort of largemolecular factory, which is found in allliving cells. It uses the information itreceives from mRNA to create proteins.Antisense therapy targets the mRNAto prevent information from a mutatedgene from being expressed in this fash-ion by suppressing the message fromthe DNA to the ribosome.

Oligonucleotides are short fragments

of nucleic acid. In antisense therapy, themisbehaving gene is first identified. Thenan oligonucleotide is chemically synthe-sised to neutralise the information trans-mitted to the mRNA by that mutatedgene. This is very specific, accurate tar-geting, that can create designer drugs tar-geting just one individual.

As with DNA, mRNA genetic infor-mation is in the sequence ofnucleotides, which are arranged intocodons consisting of three base pairseach. The oligonucleotides physicallybind to mRNA and can neutraliseinstructions for creating a specific pro-tein. The treatment has been used totreat a wide range of diseases includingthalassemia, retinitis, muscular dystro-phy, cancers, HIV, AIDS.

The effects of ASOs in influencingRNA processing protein expressionwere discovered over two decades ago.The antisense effect of a syntheticoligonucleotide sequence was firstdemonstrated in the late 1970s byZamecnik and Stephenson.

However, the progress in using thesetechnologies has been slow. The USFood and Drug Administrationapproval for the commercialisation ofthe first ASO, Vitravene (forcytomegalovirus retinitis) camethrough in 2016. It was as recently as2018 that Dr Timothy Yu at Boston

Children’s Hospital created the firstdesigner antisense drug targeting anindividual. But approvals of ASOs forthe treatment of spinal muscular atro-phy and duchenne muscular dystrophyhave been received.

This technology holds the potentialto change the therapeutic landscape formany neurological and non-neurolog-ical conditions in the future. But itsexpensive and potential side effectsmust be studied. The Seths could pro-vide an impetus through their NGO.

As they say, as computer scientists,they believe in open platforms. “Byopen sourcing the processes, tools anddata from the first few N-of-1s, we canempower any institute to create one.We can then build a shared databaseof efficacy and safety data — anyoneperforming an N-of-1 (creating adesigner drug for an individual) shouldbe able to tap into this repository aslong as they contribute back with theirdata. With more data, we may be ableto use algorithms to reduce or eveneliminate lab work that constitutes thebulk of the costs today. With each treat-ment, we can reduce the time and costfor the next one.” This could be anunusual concatenation of cutting edgetechnology, and crowd sourcedresearch disrupting the traditionalmodel of drug development.

Tech that can silence mutationsIt holds the potential to change the therapeutic landscape for manyneurological and non-neurological conditions in future

TECH-ENABLEDDEVANGSHU DATTA

The Economic Survey correctly argues for investment-led growth. The Budget understandablywants to tap a cheap pool of global savings. But can these co-exist?

A medium-termstrategy to harnessforeign savings isincompatible with aninvestment-ledstrategy to drivedomestic growth. Whyis that? Because aninvestment-ledstrategy is necessarilyan export-led strategy

INSIGHTSAJJID Z CHINOY

OPINION 9> STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM

In a recent decision by the Union Cabinet, the terms of reference of theFifteenth Finance Commission were amended, so that the needs ofdefence and internal security be set aside from regular expenditure. Inthe course of extending the Commission’s term, the Cabinet added the

following to its mandate: To “address serious concerns regarding allocationof adequate, secure and non-lapsable funds for defence and internal securityof India”.

This has correctly been seen as an attempt by the Centre to occupy morefiscal space. Article 280 of the Constitution requires the Commission to be theoverall judge of how taxes are distributed, and Article 266 implies that theConsolidated Fund of India is a shared pool for all national priorities. Settingaside a fund purely for defence, which is the natural end point of the Cabinet’sdemand from the Commission, would act against this basic constitutionalprinciple. It would sequester defence spending and give the Centre more spaceto spend on its own political priorities at the expense of the states. At a timewhen there is a quiet fiscal crisis brewing, thanks to the underperformance ofthe goods and services tax, this is not a welcome development.

It is true that defence allocation, in particular, has been a source of constantworry in past years. It has effectively been shrinking as a percentage of grossdomestic product. Worse, a large part of the expenditure goes to fund thewages and pensions bills, along with other current expenditure. The capitalbudget for defence is in any case too small, and much of it is taken up withtied expenditure — purchases already agreed upon, for example. The amountleft for modernisation initiatives is too small. But short-circuiting theConstitutional provisions and shrinking the resource for states are not theanswer to this conundrum. No one item on the Central List of the Constitutionshould be given priority over the State List and the Concurrent list in thismanner. It is up to the Union government to decide how much it sets aside fordefence from the revenue available to it. If it has not been doing so enough inrecent years, it should reassess its overall expenditure, and not ask for thepool of taxes available for division be altered at the expense of states that havebeen more fiscally responsible.

The carve-out might also include spending on internal security. Theparamilitary forces in India have been an exception to recent trends, growingin size, number, and expense. This cannot continue forever, especially as left-wing extremism is less virulent than it has been at times in the past decades.The Commission would do well to recognise the extreme political danger thata carve-out at the request of the Centre for internal security and defence posesto the federal structure of the country. If such a security-specific fund iscreated, it should not affect the revenue that goes to the states. The Centreshould pay for it itself. Anything else would undermine the constitutionalframework and might lead to serious problems in the coming years.

The proposal to link the allocation of Central funds to farm sectorreforms in states, discussed at the first meeting of the chief minis-ters’ committee on transforming agriculture, has many sides andneeds careful examination before the final call is taken. While it is

true that several well-judged farm sector reforms initiated by the Centre havefailed to make much headway because of states’ apathy, the denial of fundingon this count may prove counterproductive, besides undermining the spiritof federalism. If the states’ disinterest in Centre-sponsored reforms and otherinitiatives is owing to their own better plans to achieve the same objective,squeezing funds would be unfair. But if it is attributable to administrativelethargy and inefficiency or, worse, politically motivated one-upmanship, asis sometimes the case, harsher fiscal steps may not be unjustified.

Indeed, the idea of leveraging Central finances for nudging states to has-ten reforms is not new. Even the National Institution for Transforming India(NITI) Aayog had advised the agriculture ministry in 2017 to tie up a part ofthe grant under the umbrella farm development scheme Rashtriya KrishiVikas Yojana with the implementation of farm sector reforms. However, theproposition was not pursued due to the fear of backlash from state govern-ments. But if some chief ministers are themselves veering round to this view,it may be worthwhile to try it out, even if on a selective basic. A beginningcan be made to push reforms in fields such as agricultural marketing, landleasing, contract farming, crop insurance, and agricultural credit.

Another possible, albeit hard to execute, way to circumvent the states’indifference towards the Centre’s farmer-oriented agenda could be to shiftagriculture from the State list to the Concurrent List of the Constitution’sSeventh Schedule. This would empower the Union government to play agreater and more decisive role in the development of agriculture withoutsignificantly diluting the powers of the state governments. Such a statutorytranslocation of agriculture was suggested by the M S Swaminathan-headedNational Commission on Farmers in its fifth and final report in 2006. Of late,the Dalwai committee’s report on the issues related to doubling farmers’income by 2022, presented to the government in September 2018, alsofavoured putting agricultural marketing on the Concurrent List.

However, the amendment to the Constitution for this purpose wouldrequire the support of two-third members of both houses of Parliament andan endorsement by a requisite number of state legislatures. It might be a tallorder, but it would certainly not be unprecedented as such statutory amend-ments have been carried out in the past as well. Subjects like education, forests,and wildlife protection were moved from the State List to the Concurrent Listthrough the 42nd amendment of the Constitution way back in 1976.

The substantive issue, really, is to carry forward some vital and, moreimportantly, need-based reforms in agriculture to restore profitability andmitigate farmers’ lingering financial woes. Exit avenues also need to be createdto let farmers quit farming if they intend to do so to improve their livelihoodprospects. The chief ministers’ panel can legitimately be expe c t ed to comeout with practically feasible plans to rejuvenate the country’s farm sector.

Volume XXIII Number 247

MUMBAI | MONDAY, 29 JULY 2019

US President Donald Trump has taken the USinto a trade war with China. The early evi-dence suggests some gains from this for

India. The deeper gains will arise, however, throughthe FDI decisions of the boards of global companies,which will play out over time. For India to make thebest of this situation, we need to become more of amature market economy, and play fair by the rulesof the game of globalisation.

In a China-India comparison, the Chinese economyis bigger and the Chinese policy establishment is morecapable. China has graduated to making sophisticatedgoods, such as computer equipment,which India does not make. India’sexports, so far, look more like thoseof a developing country. As a conse-quence, we may expect that the US-China trade war might not yield sig-nificant gains for India.

In order to assess the develop-ments associated with the trade war,the data to focus on is the US importof goods from both countries. Indiadoes well on services exports to theUS, but we will keep those out of theanalysis as the US-China trade waris primarily about goods. The latestdata, for the month of May 2019, shows that India’sexports to the US were $5.6 billion, China’s exports tothe US were $39.3 billion and the total import of goodsinto the US was $220.8 billion. India’s value is, of course,much smaller than that of China.

How have the exports of these two countries beenchanging as a consequence of the US-China trade war?The highest ever value of China’s share in US importswas in September 2015, at 23.87 per cent. From thathigh, there has been a decline to 17.78 per cent in thelatest data, which was May 2019. Just one year prior to

this, in May 2018, China’s share was 21.5 per cent.From the peak of September 2015 till the latest

reading of May 2019, China’s share in US importshas declined by 6.09 percentage points. This is a bigchange. Over this period, India’s share in US importswent up from 1.92 per cent to 2.54 per cent. This is again of 0.62 percentage points. We may say thatabout a tenth of the share ceded by China hasaccrued to India.

To what extent are these changes about the recenttrade war, and to what extent is there some deeperlong-term phenomenon going on? The graph (above)

shows China’s exports of goods tothe US divided by India’s exports ofgoods to the US. Chinese exportswere 2 to 4 times larger than Indiain the late 1980s, and this went upto 16 times bigger by 2007.

Over the last decade, the ratiohas improved from India’s point ofview. Over and above this long-termprocess, it does look like the latestfew data points have some gainsfor India in response to the US-China trade war.

How best can India play theemerging US-China trade conflict?

The first point to emphasise is that most global tradetakes place within multinational firms. When Walmartgrows deep roots in India, Walmart will export morefrom India. For India to do well in exporting, we needglobal firms to commit to India, on a greater scale,and we need Indian multinationals to flourish. Theseeffects will necessarily play out slowly. When a US-China trade war erupts, in the short run, global firmsdo not change course by much. But in the mediumterm, boards of global firms are constantly looking atthe countries in which they operate and making

changes based on their judgement about the countriesthat offer a better economic environment.

We have to get into the mind of the boards of globalfirms, which are grappling with the problem of theirover-exposure to China. What can we do to becomemore attractive to them?

Improving India’s attraction as an FDI destinationis about the familiar issues of labour law, infrastructure,and taxation. Of these, taxation has become a partic-ularly important problem. Tax policy and tax admin-istration is a major concern for global operations. ForIndia to be integrated into global supply chains, goodsshould seamlessly move into India, and then get re-exported. This requires removing all customs duties,establishing a goods and services tax (GST) -on-importsand having zero-rating of exports. It also requires well-structured operational procedures and a well behavedtax administration. The use of raids and imprisonmentdeters private persons from operating in India.

India now has the highest income tax rate for cor-porations in the world, and a source-based taxationsystem. This needs to shift to a residence-based taxa-tion system, and an income tax rate for corporations(all inclusive) of 20 per cent.

India is seen as a difficult place to operate in, onaccount of policy risk. There is a danger of suddenchange, e.g in customs duties. This requires deeperreform of the policy process. The process of makinglaws and regulations requires greater consultation,cost-benefit analysis, and introduction of rule changesfrom dates well into the future.

We should rein in our sense that China’s loss isour gain. India has a lot to lose in the decline of arules-based world of globalisation. We now earn ~4trillion per quarter from the export of services and~6 trillion per quarter from the export of goods. Tomake this more physically interpretable, we earn~0.44 trillion every calendar day through the exportof goods and services. We already have a lot at stakein a globalised world. Looking into the future, it islikely that policy reforms in India (on the issuessketched above) will yield considerable growth ofexports from India. We will have more at stake inthe future.

If Trumpism becomes the new normal, we willbe at the receiving end of it at future dates. India’sstance in international relations should emphasisethe gains from a rule based world of open borders,where there is a low risk of new barriers to globalisa-tion coming up.

The writer is a professor at National Institute of PublicFinance and Policy, New Delhi

Is China’s lossIndia’s gain?To assess developments associated with the trade war, the datato focus on is the US import of goods from both the countries

Sheila Dikshit, Delhi’s three-term chief ministerwho passed away on July 20, must be remem-bered for her politics of consensus and negoti-

ated settlement. This is even more important intoday’s age of highly polarised politics. It is also impor-tant if we consider that the objective of a governmentis to ensure delivery of development. And this is notpossible without the ability to manage the contestedrealities and seek a collaborative solution. For me,this is the real art of politics. Unfortunately, we seemto be losing this art as hate and loud noise take overthe airwaves and our world.

My encounter with Sheilaji (asshe was known) began with a fight.In the late 1990s we were in theSupreme Court, arguing that Delhi’spublic transport must switch tocleaner compressed natural gas(CNG) fuel to combat its then dead-ly air pollution. This had becomeadversarial and contentious. TheUnion government was deadagainst it; the diesel lobby was argu-ing that CNG was explosive anduntested. The Delhi government —then headed by Sheilaji — was drag-ging its feet to make the transition.Queues at petrol pumps were getting longer andlonger as gas was not being delivered; buses werebeing burnt to show how CNG would not work. Inthe Supreme Court, the then solicitor general of India,Harish Salve, was hauling up the government for itsdeliberate inaction. The top court was getting moreand more incensed and called for contempt proceed-ings to start against the Delhi chief minister.

Then all this changed. Sheilaji walked into the

court personally. She didn’t stand on ceremony; shedidn’t join the acrimony. She just ensured that orderswere to be followed. As they say, the rest is history.We worked closely with her government through thisperiod of transition to CNG. She didn’t blink whenthe going was tough. She had the ability to make herbureaucrats deliver, not as sovereigns, but by includ-ing words and ideas from the “outside”. She joinedworlds effortlessly and with grace. This is another artin politics we are losing.

In the decade of the 2000s, attention shifted topublic transport to reduce vehicleson the road, and so pollution. I dis-tinctly remember that she came toone of our meetings where we dis-cussed the second-generationreforms after the transition to CNG.She didn’t hesitate to chide us. Shedisagreed that the city could movetowards public transport at the scaleneeded. She didn’t think this wasthe way ahead. But she didn’t shutthe door on us. We persisted andshe listened.

I believe it is we who failed her.Not the other way around. Whenshe supported the now-dismantled

Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT), it was because shegave a chance to seemingly impossible ideas. It is ourcollective inability to design a system for the com-plexity of Delhi — one that would negotiate with thedifferent road users and not antagonise needlessly— which made the system fail. But she again did notgive up on ideas. She dismantled the notorious BlueLine bus service, even though many politicians ownedsuch buses. She supported the purchase of a new gen-

eration of low-floor and air-conditioned buses — allnew and all untested. She understood the need formassive investment in public transport — metro, bus,and cycle — to reinvent mobility. Again, it was hergovernance abilities, combined with persuasive pow-ers and without angst without finger-pointing, thatbrought these changes.

I am writing this not to call out the current leadersof my city or country. But to reminisce so that we can,perhaps for one moment, think of how politics ofconsensus will deliver. I know she lost the popularvote in 2013; I know that air pollution and many otherproblems of this ungovernable city with multipleauthorities grew in her tenure. But the fact is that shenever stopped trying. She never shunned responsi-bility. She mastered that elusive art of pushing forchange without fuss.

One of the last times I met her was when shecalled to ask what she could do about the growingpollution in the city. She had lost the election a fewyears earlier. But she was concerned, even agitated.She wanted to know what more governments coulddo, and what advice she could give. I told her franklythat she should not try. She would be attacked fornot doing enough in her tenure. The blame-gamemachinery would go on overdrive. But she wrote togovernments with her advice. I know, because shecalled to tell me, with some bemusement that shedid not get any responses. What could I say? Thecourtesy of a response was old-fashioned; her fashion.It would be really unfortunate if we let the SheilaDikshit way of politics go out of fashion.

The writer is at the Centre for Science and [email protected]: @sunitanar

Walter Bagehot (1826-77) — theBritish literary critic, banker,journalist, political sociologist,

analyst of finance, social psychologist andeditor of The National Review and TheEconomist — has never lacked for admir-ers. His devoted friend George Eliot con-curred with the verdict of another closefriend, Lord Bryce, that his “was perhapsthe most original mind of his generation.”Gladstone confided that both Liberal and

Conservative governments so prizedBagehot’s financial acumen that theylooked to him as a “supplementary chancellor of the Exchequer.” His posthu-mous idolaters have included WoodrowWilson (who defined Bagehot’s role asnothing less than “to clarify the thoughtof his generation”); Herbert Read, themodernist poet, anarchist philosopher,art critic and literary critic, who pro-nounced Bagehot’s literary criticism “thebest of its time” save for Matthew Arnold’s;Jacques Barzun, the intellectual historian,who for decades championed him as “thegreatest Victorian”; and Ben Bernanke,who, in a memoir of the most recent finan-cial crisis, cited Bagehot more often thanany living economist. Nevertheless,Bagehot is fated to be best known for notbeing better known.

This limbo probably owes something

to the uncertain pronunciation of his name(most say “Badge-it”; some insist on “Bag-ot”) and more to the wide range and seem-ing incongruity of his fields of expertise, asthe disparate assortment of his celebrantssuggests. Containing multitudes, Bagehothas been impossible to pigeonhole. Thosewho examine, say, his comparison of therole of the provinces in Tristram Shandyand the novels of Thackeray may well beunaware of Lombard Street, his tour deforce anatomisation of the psychology offinance and banking panics and of the soci-ology of the London money market. “Nobook on banking,” John Maynard Keyneswrote, “has ever attained such a position— an undying classic,” imbued with “theglamour of intense reality,” it “is a perfectexample of a certain kind of English writ-ing, and its truth of human nature.”

Those who champion his startling elu-

cidation of the social and psychologicaldimensions of the Crown and the Houseof Lords in The English Constitution tendto form a different constituency from thosewho look to his pioneering exploration ofevolutionary political sociology in Physicsand Politics (which William James pro-nounced a “golden little book”), and fromthose who see his most enduring contri-bution to be the creation of a new prosestyle — cool, ironic, epigrammatic, allusive,balanced, sometimes slangy — that re m a -ins part of the mental furniture of Oxbridge,Britain’s Civil Service and what used to becalled Britain’s “higher journalism.”

While a full appreciation of Bagehot hasbeen hobbled by his polymathic attain-ments, he has nevertheless been fortunatein his devotees — even if, for the most part,each has been able to illuminate only spe-cific aspects of his career and his genius.

In his new biography, Bagehot: The Life andTimes of the Greatest Victorian, JamesGrant follows this pattern, burnishing hissubject’s reputation but offering a some-what limited appraisal of Bagehot’sachievements.

Mr Grant is a biographer of BernardBaruch and John Adams, and the founderand editor of the cheeky and stylish Grant’sInterest Rate Observer. The characterisa-tion that the highbrow Labour Party politi-cian Richard Crossman (another Bagehotdevotee) bestowed on Bagehot’s writing— a “mixture of rollicking cynicism andcool an alysis” — applies to Mr Grant’s ownbrilliantly contrarian criticism in theInterest Rate Observer, The FinancialTimes and el s ewhere of market reckless-ness, bankers’ ir responsibility and (toGrant) their concomitant, the expansivemonetary policies of the Federal Reservethat have defined the booms and busts ofthe past 30-odd years.

This biography, though, takes wing onlywhen it treats Bagehot’s role as a banker

and financial journalist. That these are thevery aspects of Bagehot’s work that havebeen relatively neglected by most scholars,who have tended to concentrate on his lit-erary, political and sociological oeuvre,might be reason enough to commend MrGrant’s excellent if uneven biography.Bagehot scholarship, however, isn’t accre-tive, and the 1959 book The Spare Cha n c e -llor, by the worldly British journalist AlastairBuchan, remains the most astute, elegantand historically informed assessment ofBagehot’s entire life and work — includinghis participation in and analysis of the pow-erful and precarious world of finance.

©2019 The New York TimesNews Service

Consensus or confrontational politics?

Resurrecting the ‘Greatest Victorian’

BOOK REVIEWBENJAMIN SCHWARZ

BAGEHOTThe Life and Times of theGreatest VictorianJames Grant WW Norton & Company; $29.95; 334 pages

Finance Commission should not carve out a separate fund

Risk to federalism

ILLUSTRATION: AJAY MOHANTY

SNAKES & LADDERSAJAY SHAH

DOWN TO EARTHSUNITA NARAIN

Reforming agricultureFarming needs to be made profitable

BIG OPPORTUNITYChinese exports to the US were 2 to 4 times largerthan India in the late 1980s. This went up to 16 timesby 2007, and has improved over the last decade

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DELHI THE HINDU

MONDAY, JULY 29, 201910EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

CMYK

A ND-NDE

EDITORIAL

Arun Mohan Sukumar

New technologies have a curious history of fi��ndingtheir way into the cross

hairs of international politics. ‘5G’is no diff��erent. In many respects,the dilemma facing Prime MinisterNarendra Modi — to embrace Huawei and other Chinese purveyorsof 5Genabled telecommunications infrastructure, or to salvagethe political relationship with theUnited States — is similar to theone faced by Rajiv Gandhi in the1980s. Then, India had sought foritself a “supercomputer” from,among others, Japan. Instead, itwas dealt a bad hand by the U.S.,and made to settle eventually foran American machine that belonged to an older, slower generation of computers. The lessonsfrom that moment in history areinstructive, and Indian policymakers would do well to heed them.

The late 1980s saw the waningof Cold War tensions on account ofthe Soviet Union’s inability tostand toetotoe with the militarymight of the U.S. But U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s administration had already set its sights on asmall nation making rapid advancements in computing: Japan.Their technological rivalryspawned a trade war betweenWashington DC and Tokyo, eachtrying to outpace the other in penetrating newer markets. Itreached a crescendo in 1987 when

Reagan himself blocked the acquisition of Fairchild Semiconductorsby Fujitsu Corporation. Fairchildwas responsible for giving “SiliconValley” its name — the audaciousJapanese attempt to buy off�� anAmerican crown jewel was thestraw that broke the camel’s back.

The supercomputer sagaBut long before this rivalryreached a head, India had becomeits unfortunate casualty. Geopolitics induced by technology coincided with Rajiv Gandhi’s winning the1984 general election by a landslide. His early initiatives includedthe New Computer Policy (NCP) of1984 and the Software (Exports)Policy of 1986, which resulted in asteep drop in the price of computers, and heralded a remarkableshift in the government’s attitudetowards them. However, to keepup with rapid, generational leapsin computing, India needed the assistance of nations that had madebig strides in the sector. The U.S.made it known early that it calledthe shots.

Months after the NCP waspassed, Reagan put India in a listof destinations that needed special“review” before exports of American technology could be cleared.Rajiv Gandhi made a much publicised visit to Washington DC in thesummer of 1985 to break the impasse. It resulted in the Technology Cooperation Agreement (TCA),a genuine, diplomatic successforged by the personal chemistrythe young Prime Minister sharedwith the septuagenarian Reagan.The TCA eased regulations ontechnology exports, and it wasduring this visit that Rajiv Gandhibroached the possible purchase of

a supercomputer.Publicly, India sought a super

computer to forecast its monsoonsbetter. Negotiations with the U.S.were however long and cumbersome, and an entire year passedby without any progress. Meanwhile, Rajiv Gandhi himself hadstaked political capital in promising to bring home a supercomputer, lending urgency to the matter.India eventually approached Japan, whose NEC Corporation wasthe only company outside the U.S.that could off��er a supercomputer..The Wall Street Journal at the timemade the stunning revelation thatJapan had promised India it would“sign a supercomputer agreementwithin 30 days if the US deal fellthrough”.

Instrument of politicsThe availability of advanced technology from a competitor undermined the U.S. objective of wielding it as a blunt instrument ofpolitics. Reagan wanted to weanIndia away from its partnershipwith the Soviet Union on hightechnology, and rein in New Delhi’s progress on its nascent guidedmissile programme. Therefore,the U.S. attached riders to the sale,

placing intrusive safeguards andcertifi��cation requirements that thesupercomputer would be used byIndia only for civilian purposes.Ironically, American technologycompanies such as Honeywell andUnisys were supplying advancedelectronics to Saddam Husseinaround the same time, augmenting Iraq’s missile system. When Japan stepped into the picture, theU.S. immediately began negotiations to reach a “common understanding” with Tokyo for the saleof supercomputers.

The Japanese too believed thesafeguards were “too broad andtoo stringent” but simply did nothave the diplomatic fi��repower toresist Reagan’s overtures. With Japan making its reluctance known,India was held captive at the negotiating table by the U.S. The agreement fi��nally inked was for the saleof a Cray XMP supercomputer ageneration older to its latest variant.

The deal did little for RajivGandhi domestically. After all, theIndian disaff��ection with IBM hadbegun, leading to its eventual exitin 1978, on account of its selling ofobsolete machines to customers. IfIndia has made modest forays intosupercomputing today, it is thanksto the Centre for Development ofAdvanced Computing (CDAC),which stepped up its eff��orts tocreate an indigenous machine inthe wake of this episode.

The Cray supercomputer sale iswelldocumented, but less storiedis the American eff��ort to dissuadeJapan’s technology giants from theIndian market. By investing heavily in his political relationship withthe U.S., Rajiv Gandhi unwittinglywaded into Reagan’s technology

trade war with Tokyo. It diminished his ability to negotiate autonomously with NEC.

Fast forward to the presentThe 5G saga is no diff��erent. At therecently concluded G20 summit inOsaka, Mr. Modi suggested he wastalking to his U.S. counterpart to“collaborate and develop 5G technology for mutual benefi��t”. FewAmerican vendors have the abilitytoday to compete with a Huawei,Nokia or Ericsson — the statementwas a concession on Mr. Modi’spart, allowing the U.S. to shoot off��India’s shoulders against Chinesetechnology giants. With the Principal Scientifi��c Adviser, K. VijayRaghavan, also the head of thehighlevel panel on 5G, openlycalling for the exclusion of Chineseplayers from national trials, thegovernment has unwisely put allits cards on the table.

The U.S.China technology rivalry is eminently political, one inwhich India should not take sides.If anything, New Delhi should takecare to see history does not repeatitself. Much like the U.S.Japan understanding on supercomputers,Osaka also saw the beginning of aU.S. rapprochement with China ontechnology trade: India must ensure whatever bilateral confi��guration that emerges from such talksdoes not restrict the sale of 5Gequipment to others. There are nowinners for India to pick in thisbattle: just decisions to be madecoldly from the prism of economicselfinterest.

Arun Mohan Sukumar is a PhD candidate

at The Fletcher School, Tufts University

and currently with the Observer Research

Foundation, New Delhi.

History and the 5G dilemma As India looks to developing 5G technology, its quest in the 1980s for an American supercomputer off��ers lessons

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more letters online:

www.hindu.com/opinion/letters/

While it is important for agovernment to pursue asound economic policy,

including management of the public fi��nances, it is yet another matter to make a fetish of any one aspect of it. The latter appears togovern this government’s approach to policy when the fi��scaldefi��cit is given pride of place in itsselfassessment. Not only is thisunlikely to yield results on its own,it is not even necessarily prudent.

Thread of fi��scal disciplineSoon after the Budget for 201920was presented, one of the FinanceMinister’s predecessors remarkedthat “fi��scal prudence rewards economies”. This was perhaps issuedboth as praise for the Budget itselfand as a justifi��cation of the approach taken during his own tenure. Though a concern for thesize of the fi��scal defi��cit would havebeen inevitable since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibilityand Budget Management Bill in2003, and has therefore been onthe radar of political parties of allpersuasions at the Centre, it hasbeen raised to special signifi��cancesince 2014. It fi��gured in the mostrecent Economic Survey, and itsanticipated magnitude for 201920was the fi��nal statement in the Budget speech that had followed. TheFinance Minister had commencedthe speech saying how the government was committed to fi��scaldiscipline.

In the context, “fi��scal discipline” is understood as taking the

economy towards the 3% of thegross domestic product. The basisfor this fi��gure can be queried butthat is beside the point. Actually,the point is two fold: whether thefi��scal defi��cit should be the sole index of fi��scal management andwhat a reduction in the defi��citwould achieve. To suggest that fi��scal prudence rewards economiesis to suggest both that the fi��scaldefi��cit is the right indicator of fi��scal soundness and that reducing itis bountiful.

Not always a perfect measureWhile a sound fi��scal policy is highly desirable, the magnitude of thefi��scal defi��cit is not always and everywhere — think here of the stateof the economy — a good measureof soundness. First, the fi��scal defi��cit refl��ects the overall imbalance inthe Budget. Embedded in the accounts of the government is the revenue account which is a statement of current receipts andexpenditure. A fi��scal defi��cit may ormay not contain within it a defi��citon the revenue account, termedthe “revenue defi��cit”. The possibleembeddedness of a revenue defi��citwithin a fi��scal defi��cit muddies thewaters somewhat. For movementsin the overall, or fi��scal, defi��cit byitself tell us nothing about what ishappening to the revenue defi��cit.Why should we worry, one mightask. We worry because it is the balance on the revenue defi��cit thatindicates whether the governmentis saving out of its income orspending more than it receives ascurrent revenue. A revenue defi��citimplies that the government isdissaving.

A fi��scal defi��cit coterminus witha revenue defi��cit is to be frownedupon as it implies that at leastsome part of the borrowing is to fi��nance current consumption, something a government ought pru

dently to avoid, at least for long.Therefore, unless the revenue deficit is kept explicitly in the picture,we cannot deduce the soundnessof economic management from amere reduction in the fi��scal defi��cit. In fact, in the Budget for 201920, while the fi��scal defi��cit projected is marginally lower than earlier,the revenue defi��cit is projected torise. Even though the magnitudeof the changes is minuscule, theirdirection calls into question the Finance Minister’s claim that the government is committed to fi��scaldiscipline. It is yet another instance when the fi��scal defi��cit canend up being no more than window dressing. While a pathological adherence to a revenue account balance is itself avoidable, asteady revenue defi��cit as the fi��scaldefi��cit shrinks makes a mockery offi��scal consolidation. Worse still it isopen to the interpretation that theexercise is ideological in that itaims only to shrink the size of government, fi��scal prudence bedamned.

Rewards yet to be seenA detour through history wouldhelp bring some perspective here.A revenue defi��cit of the Central government is relatively recent, having been virtually nonexistent tillthe 1980s. After that a rampant populism has taken over all politicalparties, refl��ected in revenue defi��cits accounting for over two thirds

of the fi��scal defi��cit such as the casetoday. Revenue defi��cits have become structural in India by now.This has three implications: thatthe public debt is only bound torise; we are permanently borrowing to consume, and leaving it tofuture generations to inherit thedebt. While the populism referredto is not the monopoly of any onepolitical party, it is particularlystark in the case of the present onewhich relentlessly fl��ags its virtue inlowering the fi��scal defi��cit.

We can see the hollowness ofthe claim that fi��scal consolidationor the shrinking of the fi��scal defi��citis always and everywhere prudent, for the issue is what is happening to the revenue defi��cit. Nowonto the former Finance Minister’sclaim that “it rewards” economies.This government has lowered thefi��scal defi��cit alright, though not asmuch as the United Progressive Alliance government, but the rewards are yet to be seen. Exportgrowth has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen. Even private investment has not soared, anoutcome predicted following theclaim that government borrowing“crowds out” private investment.

International borrowingOf late an entirely new dimensionhas been added to fi��scal management, but here again the appropriateness of conducting economic policy by reference to themagnitude of the fi��scal defi��cit remains the issue. In the last Budgetthe government has signalled itsintention to borrow in foreign currency from the international market. This is an innovation alright asthe Government of India has so farnever borrowed in the international markets, leaving it to public sector organisations and the privatecorporate sector to do so.

In the Budget speech of the 17th

Lok Sabha, the Finance Ministerjustifi��ed the move in terms of thevery low share of foreign debt toGDP. The proposal has receivedcriticism, some of it focussing onthe consequences of exchangerate volatility. Benefi��ts have beenfl��agged too, such as that Indian sovereign bonds will attract a lowerrisk premium because the price ofthe foreigncurrencydenominated sovereign bond will now be discoverable. This though ignores thebiggest lesson from the global fi��nancial crisis of 2007, that themarket cannot be relied upon toprice risk correctly. And, both arguments overlook the foreign exchange constraint.

Dollardenominated debt has tobe repaid in dollars. Right now ourreserves are fairly high but thiscould change. Oil prices could goback to where they were, the tradewar initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump holds little prospectfor faster export growth, and portfolio investment may fl��ow out.While these are only possibilities,they point to the need to ultimately base your borrowing plan on expected dollar earnings. The opportunity off��ered by low globalinterest rates right now is notmatched by the likelihood of robust export growth.

In the fi��nal analysis though, it isnot the risk of exchange rate depreciation or stagnant exports oreven capital fl��ight that is the issue;it is the rationale for borrowing.With revenue defi��cits the overwhelming part of the fi��scal defi��cit,we would be borrowing to fi��nanceconsumption. Dollar denominatedsovereign debt is just a matter ofshifting this borrowing overseas.That is the real issue.

Pulapre Balakrishnan is Professor of

Economics, Ashoka University and Senior

Fellow, IIM Kozhikode

Governing India through fi��scal mathA focus on fi��scal defi��cit reduction alone is not sound economic management. The revenue defi��cit must be in the picture

Pulapre Balakrishnan

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Train rescueThe heroic rescue of thepassengers on board theMahalaxmi Express whichwas caught in fl��ood watersabout 65 km from Mumbaiis much appreciated (Page1, “1,050 passengersrescued from strandedtrain near Mumbai”, July28). The Central Railwayshould now be proactiveand cancel train services infl��oodaff��ected regions in thebest interest of passengersafety. The incident shouldalso lead to better facilitieson board trains. A publicannouncement system inall trains to communicateinformation to passengersduring an emergency orcrisis must be in place.Railway staff�� should also be

equipped to handle anyemergency. Varun Dambal,

Bengaluru

■ Compliments to the entireteam and agencies involvedin the dramatic rescue. Weoften blame governmentagencies whenever there is adisaster but seldomappreciate a good job such asthis. The role of the localpeople cannot be ignored,with young men assisting theforces. May their tribe grow.Tilak Subramanian V.,

Kunjibettu, Udupi, Karnataka

Open HouseI was one of the 40 readersto participate in the fi��rstKerala Open House with theReaders’ Editor (“Revive

passion for reading amongyouth, say readers”, July 28).As many readers havepointed out, The Hindu isthe best newspaper toimprove a person’svocabulary and knowledge.From Saturday’s meeting Iunderstand that mostreaders have expresseddismay over the decliningpassion for readingespecially among themillennials. Students of mygeneration do fi��nd socialmedia to be a huge draw andhardly look at thenewspaper. The daily needsto take the initiative toencourage the reading habitright from school and mustshape its products towardsmeeting this goal. Finally,more such open house

meetings must be held acrossIndia so that the editorreader relationship grows.Georgil K. Jeemon,

Kumarapuram, Ernakulam, Kerala

■ While it is gratifying to notethat the ‘Readers’ Mail’column will be restored andimproved, the space for the‘Letters to the Editor’ sectionshould be increased, takingup from what a reader at theKochi session has suggested. R. Sivakumar,

Chennai

Life of a doctorA doctor’s life is always onedge (Open Page, “All in aday’s work for this doctor”,July 28). Ultimately he isjudged, hailed orcondemned, based on the

sincerity and dedication athis command. Kosaraju Chandramouli,

Hyderabad

■ The article was extremelypoignant, conveying theanguish of not being able tosave a patient. Doctors wagea relentless battle day in andday out to save patientsunder their care but at timesfate decides otherwise. C.V. Aravind,

Bengaluru

end result, ignoring all thesincere eff��orts anddedication invested by thedoctor when handling a case.The primary reason for thisis the assumption that adoctor is an omnipotentsaviour. This misconception needs tobe erased from our minds.Even after the besttreatment, a patient may notsurvive due to extraneousfactors. A doctor is also anormal being just doing hisjob. He can only do it with allthe wisdom, knowledge,

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to [email protected] must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.

The recommendation of an interministerial com

mittee that India should ban all private crypto

currencies, that is, Bitcoin and others like it,

hardly comes as a surprise. Indian policymakers and

administrators have time and again made clear their

distaste for them, their existence owed almost entirely

to advanced encryption technologies. In his Budget

speech in 2018, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the

government doesn’t consider them legal tender. The

Reserve Bank of India has repeatedly warned the public

of the risks associated with dealing with cryptocurren

cies. Bitcoin, the most prominent among them, has yo

yoed wildly in value, even over short periods of time. A

May 2019 article by Bloomberg, citing data from block

chain analysis fi��rm Chainalysis, said “speculation re

mains Bitcoin’s primary use case”. Its use in illegal on

line marketplaces that deal with drugs and child

pornography is welldocumented. There have been cas

es of consumers being defrauded, including in India. Gi

ven all this, it is understandable that the committee, un

der the chairmanship of Subhash Chandra Garg, the

former Economic Aff��airs Secretary, has come across as

being wary of private cryptocurrencies even while ad

vocating a central bankissued cryptocurrency.

Governments and economic regulators across the

world are wary of private cryptocurrencies. As they

need neither a central issuing authority nor a central

validating agency for transactions, these currencies can

exist and thrive outside the realm of authority and reg

ulation. They are even deemed a threat to the offi��cial

currency and monetary system. The question then is

whether banning cryptocurrencies is the most eff��ective

way to respond. The interministerial committee be

lieves it is, going so far as to draft a law that mandates a

fi��ne and imprisonment of up to 10 years for the off��ences

of mining, generating, holding, selling, dealing in,

transferring, disposing of, or issuing cryptocurrencies.

But six of the seven jurisdictions that its report cites

have not banned cryptocurrencies outright. Many of

them, including Canada, Thailand, Russia and Japan,

seem to be moving on the path of regulation, so that

transactions are within the purview of antimoney laun

dering and prevention of terror laws. China, which In

dia has taken a cue from, has gone for an outright ban.

Even there, the report says, “owing to the network

based nature of cryptocurrencies, after banning dom

estic crypto exchanges, many traders turned to over

seas platforms to continue participating in crypto tran

sactions.” Trading in China is now low but not

nonexistent. But why would an outright ban be a supe

rior choice to regulation, especially in a fi��eld driven by

fastpaced technological innovations? The report, un

fortunately, doesn’t clarify that point.

Ban or regulate? There are issues with cryptocurrencies,

but a ban might not be the best answer

The triple talaq bill was passed in the Lok Sabha on

July 25, silencing Opposition voices that the Mus

lim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage)

Bill, 2019 should not be pushed through in a hurry, and

without scrutiny. But the dissent on the nittygritty of

the bill was overshadowed by the sexist remarks made

by Samajawadi Party MP Azam Khan, directed against

Bharatiya Janata Party member Rama Devi who was in

the Chair. Referring to an intervention by Minority Af

fairs Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Mr. Khan quoted a

couplet, “… tu idhar-udhar ki na baat kar (do not di

gress).” When Ms. Devi asked Mr. Khan to address the

Chair, he made an “objectionable” statement, marking

a new parliamentary low. The irony that this was said

while the House was discussing an issue concerning

women was not lost on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitha

raman, who quipped: “Don’t politicise an issue that af

fects women.” Women and Child Development Minister

Smriti Irani pointed out that Mr. Khan’s comment was a

“blot on all legislators including men”. Mr. Khan, a vet

eran from the Uttar Pradesh Assembly but a fi��rsttime

MP who is no stranger to controversy, was banned from

campaigning for 72 hours in the recent Lok Sabha polls

after his misogynist remarks against BJP candidate Jaya

Prada. While Mr. Khan has been asked to apologise to

the House, some women members have renewed the

pitch for the passage of the women’s reservation bill.

The 17th Lok Sabha has the highest number of wo

men MPs, 78, comprising 14.39% of the House. This is

higher than 2014 and a long way from the fi��rst election

in 195152, when they made up only 5% of the House.

The global average stands at 24.6%, and neighbours

Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal have quotas for wo

men in Parliament. In India, the women’s reservation

bill or the Constitution (108th) Amendment Bill to set

aside onethird of seats in Parliament and State Assem

blies for women was passed in the Rajya Sabha in March

2010. However, the Bill couldn’t overcome odds and the

opposition in the Lok Sabha and went into cold storage.

Critics have cited several reasons behind the bill being

thwarted, not least that the quota for women would be

appropriated by powerful standins. But this could hold

true for men as well. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which

has an overwhelming majority in the Lok Sabha (303 of

543 seats) and has rushed through more than a dozen

bills in this session, must take the lead. Slogans such as

‘Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao’ will sound like mere lipser

vice if political parties don’t speak out against gender

prejudice. Women must have greater political represen

tation in decisionmaking bodies as a fi��rst step towards

changing chauvinistic mindsets, and Parliament needs

to show the way.

Sexism in Parliament India needs more women in legislatures

to combat the likes of Azam Khan

corrections & clarifications:

In a Business page ( July 28, 2019) report on ICICI Bank's performance, there was an erroneous reference to consolidated return on assets both in the text and in the graphic. It should havebeen consolidated return on equity.

The Readers’ Editor’s office can be contacted by Telephone: +91-44-28418297/28576300;

E-mail:[email protected]

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THE HINDU DELHI

MONDAY, JULY 29, 2019 11EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

CMYK

A ND-NDE

OPED

A portion of the correspondence that haslately passed between Mr. Gandhi and theHon’ble Sir George Barnes, Commerce andIndustries Member of the Government of India, in regard to the Asiatic Trading Amendment Act, passed by the South Africa Legislature, has been issued to the Press [inBombay] by Mr. Gandhi. It consists of twoletters, one written by Sir George Barnes toMr. Gandhi on the 18th instant reviewing theposition in South Africa at length, regrettingthat protests from the Government of Indiahad been unavailing and assuring that theGovernment would consider most anxiouslyfurther action to be taken when the full textof the new statute is received, and the otherbeing Mr. Gandhi’s reply to Sir GeorgeBarnes. The following is the text of Sir George Barne’s letter to Mr. Gandhi: Dear Mr.Gandhi, I sent you only a very short note afew days ago in answer to your letter because I wanted to defer a fuller answer until Iwas able to deal with the subject at length. Itold you, in my fi��rst note, that I felt certainthat you needed no assurance from me thatthe events in South Africa which have led upto the passing of the new statute have causedthe Viceroy and myself the deepest anxiety.

A HUNDRED YEARS AGO JULY 29, 1919.

Letter to Mr. Gandhi.

The Simla Agreement may be somewhat overrated. It could even bedead though we keep referring to itas a guiding light and take shelter behind it. Signed on July 2, 1972, byPrime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistan President Zulfi��kar Ali Bhutto,the Agreement has been observedmainly in its breach. It commits thetwo countries to “put an end to theconfl��ict and confrontation that havehitherto marred their relations andwork for the promotion of a friendlyand harmonious relationship and theestablishment of durable peace inthe subcontinent”. Pending “the fi��nal settlement of any of the problemsbetween the two countries”, it stipulates that “neither side shall unilaterally alter the situation and both shallprevent the organization, assistanceor encouragement of any acts detrimental to the maintenance of peaceful and harmonious relations”. Thisis followed by a list of admirable, ifineff��ectual, exhortations. If thesehad been implemented eff��ectively byNew Delhi and Islamabad, Hafi��zSaeed and Masood Azhar could wellhave been tourists in India ratherthan terrorists. Given the variousbreaches, the Simla Agreementcould do with a makeover.

It took more than 10 years afterSimla to group the subjects that Indiaand Pakistan would sporadically talkabout, and even then the two countries have been going around in circles. It is reasonable to assume thatnowadays Pakistan talks more aboutIndia and Kashmir to the U.S. than toIndia. Terrorism was one of the subjects that the two nations emphasised they would bilaterally discuss,but the 2011 Mumbai blasts shatteredthat premise. Since then India hasbeen talking about Pakistani terrorism not so much with Pakistan aswith any country willing to listen.This is probably why U.S PresidentDonald Trump revealed at the OvalOffi��ce on July 22 that he and PakistanPrime Minister Imran Khan would be“talking about India”. “I think maybeif we can help intercede and do wha

tever we have to do,” he said. “But Ithink it’s something that can bebrought back together.”

Clinton’s role during Kargil President Trump may have beenoverstating it, but when the SimlaAgreement was violated in Kargil, itwas an American President whohelped push the Pakistani troopsback into Pakistan. As the Kargil Warbegan to get bigger, a worried President Bill Clinton, who called the region “the most dangerous place inthe world”, reached out to both Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifand Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, urging Mr. Sharif to pull backfrom the Line of Control (LoC) andVajpayee not to widen the war front.

On July 2, 1999, the 27th anniversary of the Simla Agreement, whenthe Indian Army launched a threepronged attack in Kargil, Mr. Sharifcalled up Mr. Clinton. He wanted theAmericans to intervene. To make ithappen, he was even ready to fl��y toWashington with his family in casehe became a Prime Minister in exile.Two American diplomats in the Clinton administration, Bruce Riedel andStrobe Talbott, detail the developments in fascinating detail. Theywrite that the Americans told Mr.Sharif not to come unless he was willing to agree to an unconditional withdrawal. Mr. Sharif told the Americansthat he was coming anyway. Presi

dent Clinton, who had been briefi��ngVajpayee every little step of the way,called him. Vajpayee was by then asceptic of peace. He had made ahighrisk bus trip to Lahore and thePakistanis had rewarded him by violating the Simla Agreement in Kargilto seek to alter the LoC. Vajpayee didnot tell Mr. Clinton that this was a bilateral aff��air and he should stay outof it. Instead, he warned the President that Mr. Sharif would take himon a merry ride, and he was afraidthat Mr. Clinton would get coopted.Mr. Riedel, who was present at all themeetings, writes in “American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit atBlair House”: “Sharif handed thePresident a document which he saidwas a nonpaper provided to himearly in the crisis by Vajpayee inwhich the two would agree to restorethe sanctity of the LoC (a formula forPakistani withdrawal) and resumethe Lahore process. Sharif said atfi��rst India had agreed to this nonpaper but then changed its mind”.

Mr. Sharif wanted a withdrawal inreturn for a timespecifi��c resolutionof the Kashmir issue. President Clinton exploded saying he wouldn’t beblackmailed. The meeting broke totake stock of the matter. During thebreak, President Clinton called aworried Vajpayee to brief him again.“What do you want me to say,” Vajpayee asked when informed of whathad gone on. President Clinton res

ponded that he was holding fi��rm.When they met again, Mr. Clintontold Mr. Sharif that if Pakistan didn’twithdraw, he would issue a statement naming Pakistan as a sponsorof terrorism as it had already readiednuclear missiles. Mr. Sharif said hefeared for his life, but he reluctantlyagreed to pull back troops. PresidentClinton called Vajpayee to give himthe news. “That guy’s from Missouribigtime,” he said later. “He wants tosee those boys get off�� that mountainbefore he’s going to believe any ofthis” (Engaging India, Strobe Talbott). The U.S. helped boot out thePakistanis from Kargil for India.

Trump’s hintWas what President Clinton did mediation? Or was it intervention? Ormeddling? Or was this all a shiningexample of bilateralism envisaged inthe Simla Agreement? PresidentTrump gave India a preview on February 28, before Wing CommanderAbhinandan Varthaman was freed byPakistan, of what was coming whenhe said: “We have some reasonablydecent news. I think hopefully that’sgoing to be coming to an end. It’sbeen going on for a long time, decades and decades. There’s a lot ofdislike, unfortunately. So we’ve beenin the middle trying to help themboth out, see if we can get some organization and some peace, and Ithink probably that’s going to be happening.” Was that mediation or theSimla Agreement at work? Nobodypointed out to President Trump thatonly the Ministry of External Aff��airsor the Pakistani Foreign Offi��ce or theDirector General of the InterServices Public Relations were allowed tomake such announcements.

We have to recognise that theworld has changed since the SimlaAgreement was signed. After the 1971war, India returned land taken in battle on the western border, to createlasting peace. The LoC is now morefi��rmly established than ever before.There is no talk any more of UnitedNations resolutions. Most of the subjects in the ‘composite dialogue format’ like Siachen, Sir Creek and Wullar Barrage have been discussedthreadbare. Some of them have beenready for political signatures foryears. If the way forward is bilateral,then surely it is time to prove it?

[email protected]

Given the various breaches, the Simla Agreement could do with a makeover

Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistan President Zulfi��kar Ali Bhutto signingthe Simla Agreement in July 1972. * THE HINDU ARCHIVES

It’s time for India and Pakistan to walk the talk

V. Sudarshan

The Neiman Reports recently explored theidea of ‘dialogue journalism’ ina piece titled, “Can dialoguejournalism engage audiences,foster civil discourse, and increase trust in the media?” Inthat report, Chuck Todd, themoderator of NBC’s Meet thePress, observed: “As a journalist, you can’t just sit in the observation tower anymore andreport that one side is sayingthis and the other side is sayingthat. Listening to community voices and encouraging them to listen to each other is nota new tactic in journalism, it’s just more of anecessity than before.” In polarised times,dialogue helps people listen to each otherrather than emphasise their own points inecho chambers. In my experience, The Hin-du’s Open House has become a forum for engagement. It is a form of dialogue journalism.

Discussion in the Open HouseWe invited 40 readers for the last OpenHouse, which was held in Kochi on July 27,for a free and frank exchange of ideas withthe senior editorial team led by the Editor. Arepresentative from the management was also present to address noneditorial queries.We provided adequate time to the readers toraise their concerns. It was heartening tonote that there were young college students,literary translators, teachers and retired bureaucrats in the audience. The reason forlimiting the number to 40 was to ensure thatevery participant got an opportunity to express his or her opinion.

Louise Diamond of The Institute for MultiTrack Diplomacy once said: “Dialoguemeans we sit and talk with each other, especially those with whom we may think wehave the greatest diff��erences. However, talking together all too often means debating,discussing with a view to convincing the other, arguing for our point of view, examiningpros and cons. In dialogue, the intention isnot to advocate but to inquire; not to arguebut to explore; not to convince but to discover.”

Instead of being trapped in the binary ofdigital media and legacy media, readers understood the value of the process of newsgathering and news processing. Two youngreaders, Anna Kattampally and Chithra S.Nair, both graduate students from St. Teresa’s College, said younger readers now waitfor proper journalistic writing to know thetruth as social media forwards carry toomuch misinformation. They told us that

there is a dramatic increase inthe sharing of sensational, unverifi��ed content which is eroding trust in various institutions.They said that the fact thatsuch messages come fromknown circles give them someform of credence. It is in thiscontext that they have decidedto become readers of The Hin-du, a newspaper which makescentral to its news coverage the

act of verifi��cation.

A diffi��cult balanceMany readers spoke of a balance of hyperlocal, local, state, national and internationalnews. Diverse opinions indicated that anyfi��xed formula would make someone unhappy, as the interests of each reader are diff��erent from another’s. One idea that the Editorapproved of was the creation of an editioncentric letters section to deal with local andcivic issues. This can be a form of citizenjournalism. He has promised to make the local letters section an interactive one: readerswill raise issues and the newspaper will seekresponses to these issues from the authorities concerned. One reader said that the offi��cial responses could become formulaic andwanted the newspaper to examine both thecomplaints and the responses, so that thereis a system of accountability. This new section should be available within a fortnight.

In the era of digitisation, a question thatwas asked was, shouldn’t news be free?When there are multiple sources of information, why should a publication have a paywall? Some argued that the paywall proposalwas an attempt to turn news into a commodity that people are willing to pay for.

The answer is simple: news costs money,and credible news costs more money. It isour own democratic investment to pay a fairprice for highquality journalism. For nearlya century, the revenue model was driven byadvertising, which is now getting fragmented across platforms.

[email protected]

Dialogue dividendsThe Hindu’s Open House ensures a free and frankexchange of ideas between readers and senior editors

A.S. PANNEERSELVAN

FROM THE READERS’ EDITOR

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DATA POINT

It is unfortunate that the Surrogacy(Regulation) Bill, 2019, approved bythe Cabinet, bans and criminalisescommercial surrogacy and only allows altruistic surrogacy. The Billstipulates that a surrogate motherhas to be a ‘close relative’ of the intending couple.

Imposing moralityThe legislation shows that the government is eager to impose a certainmorality on others as the Bill excludes gay couples, single men andwomen, and unmarried couples whowant a child. In doing so, the government overlooks the needs of manysame sex couples and single parents.

In its earlier form, the SurrogacyBill was cleared by the Lok Sabha onDecember 19, 2018. It was passed after a short debate of just two hoursamong only nine members of Parliament. It could not be introduced inthe Rajya Sabha, however. At thattime, the Health Minister, J.P. Nadda,said various political parties supported the Bill which was drafted “keeping the Indian ethos in mind”. Hesaid the “intention is to save the family” and if the family is not able tobear children, to help them bear children through facilities off��ered bymodern science. A family, accordingto the Minister, consists of “a registered husband and wife.” The 228thLaw Commission India Report onCommercial Surrogacy too stronglyrecommended prohibiting commercial surrogacy. However, it said that“prohibition on vague moral groundswithout a proper assessment of social ends and purposes which surrogacy can serve would be irrational.”

How did the the Health Ministryconclude that that all forms of commercial surrogacy are suspicious? If itrelied on or conducted studies oncommercial surrogacy, it would behelpful if it shared these with the public, especially since this Bill, if it becomes law, could aff��ect the chancesof many couples in India who aredesperate for children and whose only ray of hope is often commercialsurrogacy. Is there an inventory ofclinics off��ering commercial surrogacy services? If yes, did the health inspectors carry out inspections?

Should there be a charter of regulations that these clinics must follow?Many questions remain unanswered.

The legislation allows surrogacyonly through a close relative. However, the Bill doesn’t defi��ne ‘close relative’. Moreover, the surrogate, theBill says, should be married, aged 25to 35, and should have at least onechild. This further brings down thenumber of eligible surrogate mothers.

Votaries of the ban have arguedthat commercial surrogacy is usedfor traffi��cking, and foreigners abandon children born through surrogates. Such violations should be addressed with an iron fi��st. However,has there been a comparison between the number of cases of misuseand those cases where families havebenefi��ted from surrogacy? Otherpractices are misused too, but theyare all not banned.

Tightening regulationsThe focus should be on the wellbeing of the surrogate. The intendingcouple should ensure fi��nancial enumeration, a sound insurance coverand regular health checkups for thesurrogate. The relevant parts of theprocess should be legally documented. To impose a ban where better regulation may have suffi��ced will onlytake the entire process underground.Tightening regulations would respectthe interests of infertile couples whomight have a chance to have a childthrough surrogacy. That would alsorespect the woman’s choice abouthow she wants to bear a child.

[email protected]

Respecting reproductive choiceRegulation of commercial surrogacy rather than ablanket ban may be the way forward

Vijaita Singh

The suppression of three newspapers here[Kathmandu] last week, along with the arrest of student demonstrators and a prominent member of the National Assembly, focussed attention on the troubled politicalconditions in Nepal. The developments indicate that the Panchayat or Assembly systemof limited representative Government inaugurated by King Mahendra nine years ago isrunning into serious new diffi��culties. One ofthe chief elements in the situation is a Communist movement looking mainly towardPeking that stands to profi��t if turbulence andrepression continue. The latest fl��areup ofstudent restiveness results from recent student union elections. For years, Communistnominees have been winning the annualvote but this year nonCommunists cameout ahead. Demonstrations by rival factionscentred on international issues, with theCommunists attacking their opponentsthrough antiIndian slogans, denouncing thesmall Indian military liaison group in Nepal,Indian border watchers on the Tibet frontierand India’s position over Susta, where location of boundary posts is in dispute.

FIFTY YEARS AGO JULY 29, 1969

Signs of ferment in Nepal

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rating agencies: derated and now berated€¦ · 8 issues and insights mumbai | monday 29 july 2019...

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