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Public Release of Technical Studies from the Go Jindabyne Master Plan February 2020

*Please read this letter prior to reading the attached report*

Go Jindabyne Master Plan The Go Jindabyne Master Plan was announced in November 2018, to revitalise Jindabyne into Australia’s premier alpine destination at the heart of the Snowy Mountains, and grow the town into a great place to live, work and visit year-round.

Upon commencement of the project, the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment commissioned a range of technical studies to develop an evidence base that would subsequently inform drafting of the Go Jindabyne Master Plan. The technical studies commissioned for the Go Jindabyne Master Plan were conducted between March and July 2019 by specialist consultants with expertise in a variety of different fields:

1. Demographics and Housing Study (Consultant: City Plan) 2. Environment and Heritage Study (Consultant: NGH Environmental) 3. Economic Development and Tourism Study (Consultant: Hill PDA) 4. Mobility and Connectivity Study (Consultant: GTA Consultants) 5. Infrastructure and Services Study (Consultant: Aecom)

Analysis of the technical studies listed above, together with public consultation conducted in 2019, made it apparent that Jindabyne, as a town, is heavily dependent on the economic activity that occurs outside of the town itself – particularly within Kosciuszko National Park.

Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct In response, the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct was announced in November 2019, to expand the scope of the Go Jindabyne Master Plan to encompass the wider Snowy Mountains region. The Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct will continue to focus on Jindabyne’s transformation into Australia’s Alpine Capital, but will now also include the high-visitation areas within the southern region of Kosciuszko National Park as well as the key transport corridors between Jindabyne and the alpine resorts.

The objective of the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct is to increase year-round tourism by making the region an unmissable place to visit during any season. Benefits offered by a Special Activation Precinct include streamlined planning, government-led development, and a business concierge service that will make it easier for new businesses to set up in the region and for existing organisations to thrive.

The Special Activation Precinct will build upon the work already undertaken as part of the Go Jindabyne Master Plan to identify opportunities to:

• promote the development of year-round adventure and eco-tourism attractions and improve tourism amenity within the region,

• improve access within and to the region, to support increased visitation numbers, • remove capacity constraints to enable growth in winter tourism, and • grow the region into Australia’s national training base for high performance alpine

athletes and para-athletes.

Public Release of Go Jindabyne Technical Studies The Department is now publicly releasing the technical studies from the Go Jindabyne Master Plan, as part of our ongoing commitment to community engagement and transparency.

Please note that these technical studies were conducted under the original scope of the Go Jindabyne Master Plan and thus may no longer be relevant and are not directly applicable to the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct, given its expanded scope. Accordingly, the findings of these Go Jindabyne technical studies are subject to change through the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct process. For this reason, we are not seeking public comments on these technical studies. Please also note that at this stage, the findings of these technical studies have not been endorsed by the NSW Government.

You will find that some information has been redacted from these technical studies to protect culturally and commercially sensitive information and ensure privacy of landholders. Specifically, the following information has been redacted:

• Demographics and Housing Study The following information has been redacted because it contains commercially sensitive information related to specific properties in Jindabyne:

• Tables 36, 41, 43, 44, 46, 48, 68 and 69 (as well as their references in the table of contents).

• Figures 58, 80 and 81 (as well as their references in the table of contents). • Text on pages 113, 151 and 156.

• Environment and Heritage Study

The following information has been redacted to protect sensitive Aboriginal cultural heritage information, or because further analysis is required to confirm the accuracy of these findings:

• Figures 4-2, 4-7, 4-8, 4-9, 5-4, 5-5, 5-7, 5-8, 5-9, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 7-1, and 7-2 (as well as their references in the table of contents).

These Go Jindabyne technical studies will be reviewed in detail through the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct process, and their respective scopes will be expanded to reflect the larger investigation area that now includes areas of Kosciuszko National Park. The technical studies that will be prepared for the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct will be publicly released in early 2021 when the draft Snowy Mountains Master Plan is released for public comment.

Next Steps The NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment will continue to work closely with the community, stakeholders, Snowy Monaro Regional Council, and other NSW Government agencies on the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct.

Community consultation on the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct commenced in early 2020, and will continue throughout the project.

To keep informed on the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct, please visit our project website at www.planning.nsw.gov.au/snowymountainssap and subscribe to our email list to receive future updates and opportunities to have your say.

Any questions regarding these technical studies or the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct can be directed to Rukshan de Silva, Principal Planner, at [email protected].

We look forward to working with you to shape the future of the Snowy Mountains.

Yours sincerely,

Anthea Sargeant Executive Director, Key Sites and Assessments NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment

Jindabyne Housing and Demographic Study Submitted to the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment

July 2019

Jindabyne Housing and Demographic Study

Final Study

Go Jindabyne Housing & Demographic Study

Project No: 19059 July 2019

City Plan Strategy & Development P/L Suite 6.02, 120 Sussex St, Sydney NSW 2000 P +61 2 8270 3500 CITYPLAN.COM.AU M:\Projects\CP2019\19-059 Jindabyne Housing Study\5. Final\230719\240719 no red text.docx Page | i

REPORT REVISION HISTORY

Revision Date Issued Revision Description

01 - Draft 5/06/19

Prepared by Verified by

Dr Alison Taylor

Alpha Demographics

Dr Emma McIntyre

EMAP Consulting

Murray Blackburn-Smith

Director - City Plan

Anthony Kazacos

Associate - City Plan

Juliet Grant

Executive Director

02 – Final 1 17/07/19

03 – Final 2 22/07/19

04 – Final 3 24/07/19

Disclaimer This report has been prepared by City Plan Strategy & Development P/L with input from a number of other expert consultants (if

relevant). To the best of our knowledge, the information contained herein is neither false nor misleading and the contents are based

on information and facts that were correct at the time of writing. City Plan Strategy & Development P/L accepts no responsibility or

liability for any errors, omissions or resultant consequences including any loss or damage arising from reliance in information in this

publication.

Copyright © City Plan Strategy & Development P/L

ABN 58 133 501 774

All Rights Reserved. No material may be reproduced without prior permission.

Final Study



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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 12

2. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 14

2.1. Purpose .................................................................................................................................... 14

2.2. Consultation .............................................................................................................................. 14

2.3. Limitations................................................................................................................................. 14

2.4. Study area ................................................................................................................................ 15

2.5. Settlement structure ................................................................................................................. 15

2.5.1. Jindabyne .................................................................................................................... 15

2.5.2. Cooma ......................................................................................................................... 19

2.5.3. Higher order service centres ....................................................................................... 19

2.5.4. A regional game-changer - the Bombala rail line ........................................................ 20

3. Literature Review ............................................................................................................................... 22

3.1. Develop the Snowy Mountains into Australia’s Premier Year-Round Alpine Destination / Grow Tourism in the Region .............................................................................................................. 24

3.2. Promote Business Activities in Urban Centres ......................................................................... 24

3.3. Deliver Greater Housing Supply and Choice............................................................................ 25

3.4. Focus Housing Growth in Locations that Maximise Infrastructure and Services ..................... 26

3.5. Deliver more Opportunities for Affordable Housing .................................................................. 27

4. Demographic analysis ....................................................................................................................... 28

4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 28

4.1.1. Population concepts .................................................................................................... 28

4.1.2. Total population ........................................................................................................... 29

4.1.3. Timing of data items .................................................................................................... 29

4.1.4. Data and geographical boundaries .............................................................................. 29

4.1.5. Data sources and deficiencies ..................................................................................... 29

4.2. Current Population Trends ....................................................................................................... 30

4.2.1. Population and geographic summary .......................................................................... 30

4.2.2. Population changes at the regional scale .................................................................... 31

4.2.3. Population changes at the local scale ......................................................................... 33

4.2.4. Population change at the urban centre and locality level ............................................ 36

4.3. Age structure ............................................................................................................................ 42

4.3.1. Jindabyne has a younger population than Cooma ...................................................... 42

4.3.2. Jindabyne’s special age structure ............................................................................... 42

Final Study



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4.3.3. How Jindabyne’s age structure has changed .............................................................. 43

4.4. Household and family structure ................................................................................................ 45

4.4.1. Changing household structure ..................................................................................... 47

4.5. Drivers of demographic change ............................................................................................... 48

4.5.1. Overseas migration is the largest contributor to population growth ............................ 48

4.5.2. Internal migration flows are the largest ........................................................................ 50

4.5.3. Age profile of movers ................................................................................................... 50

4.6. Comparing past and future growth ........................................................................................... 53

4.6.1. Comparing projection series ........................................................................................ 53

4.6.2. Projected demographic change ................................................................................... 53

4.6.3. Scenarios of future growth ........................................................................................... 54

4.6.4. Size of future population .............................................................................................. 55

4.6.5. Amount of future population growth ............................................................................. 56

4.6.6. Age structure of the future population ......................................................................... 57

4.7. Tourist populations ................................................................................................................... 59

4.7.1. Domestic and day trip visitors ...................................................................................... 59

4.7.2. International visitors ..................................................................................................... 60

4.7.3. Seasonality .................................................................................................................. 61

4.7.4. Census snapshot of visitors ......................................................................................... 63

4.7.5. Greater Jindabyne urban area ..................................................................................... 64

4.7.6. Visitor forecasts ........................................................................................................... 67

4.8. Temporary populations ............................................................................................................. 69

4.8.1. Non-resident workers ................................................................................................... 69

4.8.2. Second home owners .................................................................................................. 70

4.8.3. Data on second homes ................................................................................................ 71

4.8.4. Privately rented accommodation ................................................................................. 72

4.9. Conceptualising and estimating total populations .................................................................... 72

4.9.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 72

4.9.2. Components of the total population ............................................................................. 72

4.9.3. Seasonal variation of the total population.................................................................... 73

4.9.4. Conceptual diagram of the total population ................................................................. 73

4.9.5. Experimental estimate of the total population ............................................................. 74

4.9.6. Experimental forecasts of the future total population .................................................. 78

4.10. Future demand for social infrastructure .................................................................................... 81

Final Study



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4.10.1. Literature on social infrastructure ................................................................................ 81

4.10.2. Benchmarks for social infrastructure ........................................................................... 81

4.11. Main Findings ........................................................................................................................... 84

5. Existing Housing stock...................................................................................................................... 87

5.1. Suburb Profile ........................................................................................................................... 87

5.1.1. Highview Estate ........................................................................................................... 87

5.1.2. Tyrolean Village ........................................................................................................... 88

5.1.3. East Jindabyne ............................................................................................................ 88

5.1.4. Jindabyne .................................................................................................................... 89

5.2. Short-term rental accommodation ............................................................................................ 90

5.2.1. Hotels and Caravan Parks ........................................................................................... 90

5.3. Affordable housing .................................................................................................................... 93

5.4. Seniors Housing ....................................................................................................................... 93

5.5. Main Findings ........................................................................................................................... 94

6. Housing statistics .............................................................................................................................. 95

6.1. Dwelling Density ....................................................................................................................... 95

6.2. Total Dwellings ......................................................................................................................... 95

6.3. Median Land Price .................................................................................................................... 98

6.4. Median Dwelling Price .............................................................................................................. 98

6.5. Median Rental Price ................................................................................................................. 99

6.6. Airbnb/HomeAway .................................................................................................................. 101

6.7. Vacancy Rates ....................................................................................................................... 104

6.8. Implication for Housing Provision ........................................................................................... 105

6.9. Main findings .......................................................................................................................... 106

7. Housing supply analysis ................................................................................................................. 107

7.1. Development Activity .............................................................................................................. 107

7.1.1. Development Applications ......................................................................................... 107

7.1.2. Planning Proposals .................................................................................................... 108

7.2. Existing Zoning ....................................................................................................................... 110

7.2.1. Residential zones ...................................................................................................... 111

7.2.2. Business zones .......................................................................................................... 112

7.2.3. Seniors housing ......................................................................................................... 113

7.3. Existing residential capacity ................................................................................................... 117

7.3.1. "Jerrara Drive" Precinct, East Jindabyne ................................................................... 118

Final Study



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7.3.3. "Kunama Drive" Precinct ........................................................................................... 120

7.3.4. "Rainbow Drive" Precinct ........................................................................................... 121

7.3.6. "Lower Gippsland Street" Precinct ............................................................................ 123

7.3.8. "Highview Estate and Upper Gippsland Street" Precinct .......................................... 125

7.3.11. “Station North” Precinct ............................................................................................. 128

7.3.13. Lakewood Estate ....................................................................................................... 130

7.3.15. “Cobbin Estate” Precinct ............................................................................................ 132

7.3.16. “Barry Way South” Precinct ....................................................................................... 133

7.3.17. High Country Estate Precinct .................................................................................... 134

7.3.18. Additional Capacity .................................................................................................... 135

7.3.19. Total Capacity – Detached Dwellings and Dual Occupancy ..................................... 135

7.3.20. Total Capacity – Multi Unit Dwellings ........................................................................ 135

7.3.21. Main Findings ............................................................................................................ 136

8. Housing Market (Demand) Analysis – Permanent Accommodation ........................................... 137

8.1. Future dwelling production ..................................................................................................... 137

8.1.1. Gap Analysis .............................................................................................................. 139

9. Housing Market (Demand) Analysis – Visitor Accommodation .................................................. 142

9.1. Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 142

9.2. Kosciuszko National Park Plan of Management .................................................................... 143

9.3. Approvals and Completions.................................................................................................... 143

10. Housing Market (Demand) Analysis – Other Accommodation .................................................... 146

10.1. Non-Resident Workers ........................................................................................................... 146

10.2. Seniors Housing ..................................................................................................................... 146

10.3. Affordable Housing ................................................................................................................. 147

11. Catalyst Site Identification .............................................................................................................. 149

11.1. Constraint Analysis - Methodology ......................................................................................... 149

11.2. Constraints Analysis - Results ................................................................................................ 149

Final Study



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11.3. Staging and Dwelling Yields ................................................................................................... 156

11.3.1. Methodology – yield calculation ................................................................................. 156

11.3.2. Staging ....................................................................................................................... 156

11.3.3. Development within surrounding towns ..................................................................... 157

12. Housing Policy ................................................................................................................................. 159

12.1. Short-term Accommodation .................................................................................................... 159

12.2. Affordable Housing ................................................................................................................. 160

12.3. Affordable Rental Housing...................................................................................................... 161

12.4. Seniors Housing ..................................................................................................................... 162

12.5. Complying Development ........................................................................................................ 162

13. Recommendations ........................................................................................................................... 164

13.1. Provide sufficient feasible dwelling capacity and a broad mix of new housing ...................... 164

13.1.1. Encourage urban renewal within infill locations ......................................................... 164

13.1.2. Consider the economic feasibility of planning controls .............................................. 164

13.1.3. Prepare planning controls that promote a mix of housing types ............................... 165

13.1.4. Encourage provision of medium and high-density development in centres .............. 166

13.1.5. Consider appropriate zones for “serviced apartments” ............................................. 166

13.2. Balance development with protection of Jindabyne’s unique scenic rural character ............. 167

13.2.1. Retain the scenic quality of the Lake Jindabyne and surrounding area .................... 167

13.2.2. Retain the rural quality of Jindabyne ......................................................................... 167

13.3. Provide social housing and improve housing diversity for older residents ............................. 168

13.3.1. Provide incentives to encourage additional seniors housing in appropriate locations ................................................................................................................................... 168

13.3.2. Ensure that new development includes adaptable and accessible dwellings ........... 168

13.3.3. Provide additional social housing .............................................................................. 168

FIGURES

Figure 1: Settlement Structure.................................................................................................................... 16

Figure 2: Current settlement hierarchy, 2019 ............................................................................................. 18

Figure 3: Study area ................................................................................................................................... 21

Figure 4: South East and Tablelands 2036 ................................................................................................ 23

Figure 5: Snowy Mountains Visitors ........................................................................................................... 24

Figure 6: Regional context map ................................................................................................................. 32

Final Study



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Figure 7: SA2 map ...................................................................................................................................... 34

Figure 8: Greater Jindabyne urban area. ................................................................................................... 39

Figure 9: Annual population change, Estimated Resident Population, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2001-02 to 2017-181..................................................................................................................................................... 41

Figure 10: Broad age structure, Usual Resident Population, Cooma urban centre, Greater Jindabyne urban area and Berridale locality, 2016. ............................................................................................................... 42

Figure 11: Five-year age sex profile, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016 .............................................. 43

Figure 12: Five-year age sex profile, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2006, 2011 and 2016 .................... 44

Figure 13: Change in broad age groups, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2011-2016 ............................... 45

Figure 14: Dwellings by household and family composition, Enumerated Population, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016 ........................................................................................................................................ 46

Figure 15: Births and deaths, interstate arrivals and departures, and overseas arrivals and departures, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016-17 and 2017-18 ............................................................................... 50

Figure 16: Age profile of movers to, and from Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 between 2011-16, age at 2016. 51

Figure 17: Net change due to internal migration between 2011-2016, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, age at 2016 . ................................................................................................................................................................... 52

Figure 18: Age profile of overseas in-movers between 2011-16, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, age at 2016. 52

Figure 19: Population projections, Snowy Monaro Regional Council, 2016-2036 ..................................... 53

Figure 20: Estimated and projected population change, five-year periods, Snowy Monaro Regional Council, 2016-2036 .................................................................................................................................................. 54

Figure 21: Scenarios of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2046 ........................................... 55

Figure 22: Projected population change under four scenarios of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2036 .................................................................................................................................................. 56

Figure 23: Projected population change in each five-year period under four scenarios of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2036 ........................................................................................................ 56

Figure 24: Population age structure, baseline scenario of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 and 2036 ..................................................................................................................................................... 58

Figure 25: Population age structure, Scenario 4 supercharged growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 and 2036 ............................................................................................................................................................ 58

Figure 26: Estimated number of domestic visitors, Snowy Mountains Tourism Region, 2014-18 ............. 59

Figure 27: Estimated number of day trippers, Snowy Mountains Tourism Region, 2014-18 ..................... 60

Figure 28: International and domestic visitor nights by accommodation type, Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2017 ..................................................................................................................................... 61

Figure 29: Room occupancy, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, April 2013-June 2016 ........................................ 63

Figure 30: Usual residents, domestic and overseas visitors, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016 .......... 65

Figure 31: Occupants of visitor only households by age, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016. .............. 66

Figure 32: Domestic & overseas visitors by dwelling type, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2006, 2011 & 2016. ........................................................................................................................................................... 67

Final Study



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Figure 33: Dwelling type and residential status in non-private dwellings, Non-resident workers in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016. .................................................................................................................................. 69

Figure 34: Conceptual diagram of total population .................................................................................... 74

Figure 35: Estimates of average daily peak populations by month, Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2016 ............................................................................................................................................................ 75

Figure 36: Estimates of average daily peak populations by month, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016........ 76

Figure 37: Estimated number of occupied second homes and average daily peak populations, Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2016 ......................................................................................................... 77

Figure 38: Estimated number of occupied second homes and average daily peak populations, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 ................................................................................................................................... 78

Figure 39: Lower bound forecasts of daily peak populations by month, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2036. 80

Figure 40: An example of selected community infrastructure benchmarks. .............................................. 83

Figure 41: Existing housing stock ............................................................................................................... 87

Figure 42: Existing housing stock at Highview Estate ................................................................................ 88

Figure 43: Existing housing stock at Tyrolean Village ................................................................................ 88

Figure 44: Existing stock in East Jindabyne ............................................................................................... 89

Figure 45: Existing stock in Jindabyne ....................................................................................................... 90

Figure 46: Dwellings, east of the centre ..................................................................................................... 90

Figure 47: Rydges Horizons Snowy Mountains ......................................................................................... 91

Figure 48: Thredbo accommodation .......................................................................................................... 92

Figure 49: Crackenback Resort .................................................................................................................. 93

Figure 50: Dwelling Density ........................................................................................................................ 95

Figure 51: Rental Yield in Jindabyne ........................................................................................................ 100

Figure 52: Rental Yield in Cooma ............................................................................................................ 100

Figure 53: Short term accommodation listings ......................................................................................... 101

Figure 54: Short-term accommodation ..................................................................................................... 103

Figure 55: Snowfall ................................................................................................................................... 104

Figure 56: Jindabyne Planning Proposals ................................................................................................ 109

Figure 57: Mitre 10 site ............................................................................................................................. 112

Figure 59: Zoning Map ............................................................................................................................ 116

Figure 60: Planning Precincts................................................................................................................... 117

Figure 61: "Jerrara Drive" Precinct ........................................................................................................... 118

Figure 63: "Kunama Drive" Precinct ......................................................................................................... 120

Figure 64: "Rainbow Drive" Precinct ........................................................................................................ 121

Final Study



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Figure 66: "Lower Gippsland Street" Precinct .......................................................................................... 123

Figure 68: "Highview Estate and Upper Gippsland Street" Precinct ....................................................... 125

Figure 71: “Station North” Precinct ........................................................................................................... 128

Figure 73: “The High Country Estate” Precinct ........................................................................................ 130

Figure 75: “Cobbin Estate” Precinct ......................................................................................................... 132

Figure 76: “Barry Way South” Precinct ..................................................................................................... 133

Figure 77: High Country Estate Precinct .................................................................................................. 134

Figure 78: Dwelling approvals .................................................................................................................. 137

Figure 79: Tourist approvals ..................................................................................................................... 145

Figure 82: Greenfield Housing Code Area ............................................................................................... 163

TABLES

Table 1: Population and geographic boundaries used in this report .......................................................... 30

Table 2: Estimated resident population and change over time, selected NSW LGAs and ACT, 2006-2018 .................................................................................................................................................................... 31

Table 3: Estimated resident population and change over time, SA2s in Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2006-2018 ......................................................................................................................................... 35

Table 4: Usual residents1, urban centres and localities2 in Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2006, 2011 and 2016 ............................................................................................................................................ 36

Table 5: Usual residents1 of small statistical areas2 representing the Go Jindabyne study area, 2016 .... 37

Table 6: Usual residents1, urban centres and localities2 in the Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2006, 2011 and 2016 ..................................................................................................................................................... 40

Table 7: Dwellings by household and family composition, Jindabyne urban centre, East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate localities, 2016 ............................................................................................................... 47

Table 8: Change in dwellings by household and family composition, Jindabyne urban centre, East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate localities, 2016 ...................................................................................... 48

Final Study



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Table 9: Components of population change, SA2s in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2016-17 and 2017-18 ............................................................................................................................................... 49

Table 10: Four Scenarios of future growth for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 ................................................... 55

Table 11: Projected average annual change under four scenarios of future growth for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 ............................................................................................................................................................. 57

Table 12: Visitors counted at Census date (August), selected areas, 2016 .............................................. 64

Table 13: Peak daily forecast visitors, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 ............................................................... 68

Table 14: Number of dwellings by type, Jindabyne selected areas, 2016 ................................................. 71

Table 15: Experimental forecasts of the future total population, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2036.... 79

Table 16: Jindabyne Hotels ........................................................................................................................ 91

Table 17: Caravan Parks ............................................................................................................................ 92

Table 18: Number of dwellings ................................................................................................................... 96

Table 19: Number of bedrooms .................................................................................................................. 96

Table 20: Household composition .............................................................................................................. 97

Table 21: Dwelling ownership .................................................................................................................... 97

Table 22: Dwelling Occupancy ................................................................................................................... 98

Table 23: Median Land Price...................................................................................................................... 98

Table 24: Jindabyne Median Price ............................................................................................................. 99

Table 25: Cooma Median Sale Price .......................................................................................................... 99

Table 26: Number of guests ..................................................................................................................... 101

Table 27:Short term rental accommodation listings ................................................................................ 101

Table 28: Occupancy rates....................................................................................................................... 102

Table 29: Jindabyne Events ..................................................................................................................... 105

Table 30: Development Activity ................................................................................................................ 107

Table 31: Planning Proposals .................................................................................................................. 110

Table 32: Study area zoning..................................................................................................................... 111

Table 33: Minimum lot size ....................................................................................................................... 111

Table 34: Permissible uses ...................................................................................................................... 115

Table 36: "Old Kosciuszko Road" Precinct .............................................................................................. 119

Table 37: "Kunama Drive" Precinct .......................................................................................................... 120

Table 38: "Rainbow Drive" Precinct ......................................................................................................... 121

Table 40: "Lower Gippsland Street" Precinct ........................................................................................... 123

Final Study



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Table 42: "Highview Estate and Upper Gippsland Street" Precinct ......................................................... 125

Table 45: “Station North” Precinct ............................................................................................................ 128

Table 47: Lakewood Estate Precinct ........................................................................................................ 130

Table 49: “Cobbin Estate” Precinct .......................................................................................................... 132

Table 50: “Barry Way South” Precinct ...................................................................................................... 133

Table 51: Additional Capacity ................................................................................................................... 135

Table 52: Summary of estimated no. of dwellings ................................................................................... 135

Table 53: Dwelling approvals ................................................................................................................... 137

Table 54: Dwelling completions ............................................................................................................... 138

Table 55: Take up rates ............................................................................................................................ 138

Table 56: Major Development Activity ...................................................................................................... 138

Table 57: Dwelling type forecast .............................................................................................................. 139

Table 58: Estimated projected dwellings .................................................................................................. 140

Table 59: Dwelling gap analysis ............................................................................................................... 141

Table 60: No. of bedroom assumptions ................................................................................................... 142

Table 61: Estimated visitor dwelling forecast ........................................................................................... 142

Table 62: Visitor accommodation approvals ........................................................................................... 144

Table 63: Visitor accommodation completions ......................................................................................... 144

Table 64: Non-resident workers forecast ................................................................................................. 146

Table 65: Over 55 forecast ....................................................................................................................... 147

Table 66: Housing Stress ......................................................................................................................... 148

Table 67: Household stress by 2036 ........................................................................................................ 148

Table 70: Short term rental accommodation provisions ........................................................................... 159

Table 71: Recommended dwelling split .................................................................................................... 165

Table 72:"Serviced apartment" permissibility ........................................................................................... 167

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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

City Plan Strategy & Development, in collaboration with Alpha Demographics and EMAP Consulting, has been engaged by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment to prepare a Housing and Demographic Study as part of the ‘Go Jindabyne’ Strategy.

The aims of the study were predominately to:

▪ Provide a clear understanding of Jindabyne’s current housing situation and trends;

▪ Review competing interests between permanent residents, casual workers and short-term visitors for housing stock;

▪ Identify catalyst sites aimed at addressing housing needs and improving housing choice within the study area.

As a popular tourist location, originally designed to service the ski resorts in the Snowy Mountains, market conditions, over time, have favoured tourist accommodation over permanent residents and casual workers. As a consequence, the Snowy Monaro Local Government Area and more specifically the Jindabyne study area, has seen various housing issues emerge which require planning intervention, to cater and resolve Jindabyne unique housing market and population profile. Key issues include:

▪ Conflict between residential, key worker and visitor accommodation.

▪ Low levels of seniors and social housing.

▪ A lack of housing diversity, in particular 3-bedroom apartments and town houses.

▪ A lack of adequate housing supply to satisfy market requirements during peak tourist periods.

▪ High construction costs and lack of financing from banks which have seen many subdivisions left vacant.

▪ Unfeasible development controls which may prohibit urban renewal.

▪ High infrastructure and utility servicing costs.

The Jindabyne study area is forecast to accommodate up to an additional 1,894 people by 2036. This population growth requires an additional 1,036 to 1,289 dwellings (approximately). The Jindabyne-Berridale region is also forecast to accommodate a 40,868-44,955 visitors by 2036, which translates to approximately 9,161 to 10,077 visitor dwellings.

The existing zoning under the Snowy River Local Environmental Plan 2013 permits an approximate 2,613 dwellings, which is sufficient to accommodate the forecast permanent population growth. Additional capacity may be required to accommodate the forecast visitor growth, however it is assumed that many of the forecast visitors will stay outside the study area, within the national park and ski resorts.

Despite there being sufficient land to accommodate further development, Jindabyne is struggling to house its population profile, particularly during peak tourism seasons, when a large number of dwellings, are used for short term rental accommodation, to house key resort workers and also tourists.

The challenge facing Jindabyne is, therefore, firstly, encouraging development in suitable locations to meet the varying needs of the unique demographic profile i.e. appropriate housing stock to accommodate the needs of permanent residents, casual workers and tourists. Secondly, to promote an all seasonal approach to tourism, to ensure the housing provided is well utilised, in particular during off peak periods. Thirdly, it is important to ensure development is economically feasible to overcome the high construction costs and current lack of available financing from banks to fund development.

This study recommends several planning objectives, which could be used to guide strategic planning in Jindabyne, to address the needs of the local housing market. These include:

▪ Provide sufficient feasible dwelling capacity and a broad mix of new housing.

Encourage urban renewal within infill locations.

Consider the economic feasibility of planning controls.

Prepare planning controls that promote a mix of housing types.

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Encourage provision of medium density development in centres.

▪ Balance development with protection of Jindabyne’s unique scenic rural character.

Retain the scenic quality of the Lake Jindabyne and surrounding area.

Retain the rural quality of Jindabyne.

Provide social housing and improve housing diversity for older residents.

▪ Provide incentives to encourage additional seniors housing in appropriate locations.

Ensure that new development includes adaptable and accessible dwellings.

Provide additional social housing.

This study has also undertaken an extensive assessment of available land which could be investigated to accommodate further development within the short to long term, depending on market demand for different housing products.

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2. INTRODUCTION

2.1. Purpose

The objective of the study is to gain a detailed understanding of current and projected demographics, housing market supply and demand, emerging trends for housing types, as well as identify sites for future growth in Jindabyne and surrounding centres of Adaminaby, Berridale and Dalgety. It will provide greater understanding of emerging housing trends, population projections, the region’s population during the peak snow season and other periods of high visitation, as well as sites which can accommodate future growth.

The study has been divided into the following chapters:

▪ Literature review

▪ Demographic analysis

▪ Existing housing stock

▪ Housing statistics

▪ Housing supply

▪ Housing market demand analysis – permanent accommodation

▪ Housing market demand analysis – visitor accommodation

▪ Housing market demand analysis - other accommodation

▪ Catalyst site identification

▪ Housing policy

▪ Recommendations

2.2. Consultation

During the preparation of this Study, significant consultation was undertaken with key industry groups and organisations, in order to gain a specific understanding of the issues and concerns facing the town, whilst confirming the data and information collected.

The project team visited Jindabyne, its suburbs and the surrounding area between 6 to 9 May 2019. During this period meetings and workshops with the following organisations were undertaken:

▪ Kosciuszko First National Real Estate;

▪ Henley Property;

▪ Raine & Horne Real Estate;

▪ Ray White Real Estate;

▪ Main Range Real Estate;

▪ Snowy Monaro Regional Council;

▪ Australia Land Company;

▪ Department Planning, Industry and Environment; and

▪ Horizons Resort Jindabyne.

Information and data collected as part of these meetings was invaluable and has been used in the preparation of this Study.

2.3. Limitations

This study has been prepared based on publicly available data and information collected as part of the surveys and site visits undertaken. Information has also been provided by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment and Snowy Monaro Regional Council.

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The information and data collected has been analysed and assessed as part of the study, however due to the different sources, the following limitations and gaps have been identified which may impact its accuracy:

▪ Population and dwelling projections released by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment are from 2016 and may be considered out-of-date.

▪ Population and dwelling projections are not reflective of the possibility of expansion into rural residential areas.

▪ The data provided and collected is based on different geographic boundaries such as the Snowy Monaro Local Government Area and the suburb of Jindabyne.

▪ Assumptions had to be made for incomplete data.

2.4. Study area

Jindabyne is located within the Snowy Monaro Local Government Area (LGA), a recently amalgamated council. Snowy Monaro LGA comprises an area of 15,162km2 and inhabits a population of 20,6651. The region occupies the higher slopes of the eastern side of the Great Dividing Range between the Australian Capital Territory to the north and the state boundary with Victoria to the south.

Jindabyne is a service town for both the Thredbo and Perisher alpine resorts, which are located to the west of the town centre, within the Kosciuszko National Park. The town is situated along the southern boundary of the Lake Jindabyne which is an operational lake, under the control of Snowy Hydro.

2.5. Settlement structure

2.5.1. Jindabyne

Jindabyne is the focus of the “Go Jindabyne” Demographic and Housing study. Using ABS statistical geography definitions, the following areas are of interest. The urban centre of Jindabyne is located on the southern edge of Lake Jindabyne, while the locality of East Jindabyne, including the Tyrolean Village, is found a short distance away on the eastern side of the lake. Several small estates (including High Country Estate and Cobbin Estate) of private dwellings are also included in the Greater Jindabyne urban area, which has been aggregated for use in this report. Lakewood Estate is located approximately eight kilometres south of the Jindabyne urban centre, sitting to the east of The Snowy River Way and west of the Snowy River.

The combined area of Greater Jindabyne provides a range of services for the local population, as well as for residents of nearby villages such as Berridale, Adaminaby and Dalgety. Additionally, the rural surrounds of Jindabyne support a substantial population. These resident populations are regularly boosted by sizeable numbers of visitors, who may stay in Jindabyne at either commercial accommodation options, in private rented accommodation or with family or friends.

Jindabyne hosts a range of services catering for both locals and visitors. These services have been broadly divided into those mainly applicable to locals or visitors and include:

1 ABS ERP, 2017

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Figure 1: Settlement Structure (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

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Services applicable for locals

Medical centre, childcare, government central school (K-12 currently in the design phase of upgrading facilities to cater for 1,000 students and possibly adding shared community facilities), private grammar school (K-12 including boarding), Snowy Monaro Regional Council customer service centre, ATM facilities, church, police, fire station, ambulance, cinema, restaurants, nightclubs, bars and bottle shop, supermarket, newsagent, Post Office, travel agent.

Services applicable for visitors

Accommodation, restaurants, nightclubs, bars and bottle shop, ATM facilities, supermarket, Post Office, souvenir and gift shops, art galleries, ski hire and repair, ski shops.

In addition to providing infrastructure and services for local residents and visitors, Jindabyne provides services for residents of the surrounding rural area and nearby small villages. As noted later in this report, the population of the rural areas is substantial. Nearby villages that could potentially access services in Jindabyne include, the major resort areas of Perisher Valley (33 kilometres from Jindabyne) and Thredbo Village (35 kilometres), which contain sizeable populations especially during peak visitor periods.

Residents and visitors of the smaller settlements of Berridale, Bombala, Dalgety, Nimmitabel and Adaminaby would be more likely to access services at Cooma as it is a shorter distance to a larger number of service offerings. Residents of Dalgety may choose Jindabyne (36 kilometres away), however by travelling an additional 16 kilometres they can access a greater range of services in Cooma (52 kilometres away).

The spatial relationships between current settlements is shown in Figure 2 below.

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Figure 2: Current settlement hierarchy, 2019 (Source: Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Landuse Discussion Paper, available at https://yoursaysnowymonaro.com.au/snowy-monaro-region-planning-and-land-use-discussion-paper accessed 22 April, 2019)

https://yoursaysnowymonaro.com.au/snowy-monaro-region-planning-and-land-use-discussion-paper

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2.5.2. Cooma

Cooma is the closest larger town to Jindabyne. It is located some 60 kilometres or 45 minutes’ drive to the north-east of Jindabyne. While other facilities and services can be found in villages nearer to Jindabyne, higher order services are found in Cooma as it boasts a larger population.

Council provided services include residential aged care, swimming pools, parks and playgrounds, water and wastewater, roads, cemeteries and waste and recycling services.

Other services available in Cooma include:

▪ a small public hospital with renal and oncology outpatient services plus a 24-hour accident and emergency department (currently being upgraded),

▪ two government primary schools and one high school, two non-government schools (one K-10 and one K-12),

▪ TAFE campus, Country Universities Centre (for students studying remotely),

▪ NSW government service centre (licensing, business, registration and information services) and an Australian government service centre (Medicare, Centrelink, child support),

▪ head office of the Snowy Monaro Regional Council,

▪ support services such as for homelessness, employment, disability, aged care services

▪ large supermarkets, banks, shops, churches, art gallery, museum, theatre, restaurants, bars, clubs, hotels and food outlets, and

▪ motels, tourist parks, visitor centres, ski hire shops, 24-hour service stations.

2.5.3. Higher order service centres

Queanbeyan is located approximately 100 kilometres to the north of Cooma, around a one hour and 15-minute drive or a two-hour drive and 168 kilometres from Jindabyne. Queanbeyan offers a larger choice of services and facilities, including NSW government agencies and services. However, most Jindabyne residents would likely go to Canberra for health and medical care, university or school education, or shopping, entertainment and recreational facilities. Canberra is situated at roughly the same distance from Jindabyne as is Queanbeyan at a distance of approximately two-hour drive.

Other connections from Jindabyne include:

▪ Bega (location of the new South East Regional hospital, population including hinterland around 17,500) to the east (approximately 160 kilometres or a two-hour drive via the Snowy Mountains Way),

▪ Orbost (population around 6,500) to the south (approximately 270 kilometres or just over three hours’ drive via the Snowy River Way, Monaro Highway and Princes Highway),

▪ Wodonga (population approximately 41,000) to the west (and other northern Victoria or southern NSW centres like Albury – population approximately 65,000) (approximately 260 kilometres or a three-hour 40-minute drive via the Alpine Way and Murray Valley Highway).

The northern corridor leading to Canberra is considered the most important connection for the purposes of this report. This corridor has historically been important to the development of the area. It is the location of the now unused Bombala rail line, which led to the development of the four settlements of Michelago, Bredbo, Cooma and Nimmitabel. In addition, it is the location of one potential future growth option for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council. The proposal would facilitate development in the Michelago and northern corridor to Canberra providing residential choice and employment options (Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Landuse Discussion Paper, 2019).

A second potential future growth option would see the promotion of a Cooma-Jindabyne growth corridor with co-operation between the settlements of Cooma, Jindabyne, Berridale and surrounds to function as one urban area. Council has noted that much of the required infrastructure is already in place to facilitate this growth corridor (Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Landuse Discussion Paper, 2019).

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2.5.4. A regional game-changer - the Bombala rail line

The Bombala line extends from near Goulburn almost to the Victorian border, ending in Bombala. After construction over 100 years ago, it remained intact until the line south of Cooma was closed in 1986, with passenger services south of Queanbeyan ceasing in 1989. The line between Goulburn and Queanbeyan/Canberra remains open providing limited services between Sydney and Canberra. Subsequently, the Queanbeyan to Michelago leg was re-opened in 1993 for heritage tourist operations but closed again in 2007 due to storm damage.

There are five heritage style railway stations along the line at Michelago, Bredbo, Cooma, Nimmitabel and Bombala providing tourism potential. Re-opening the whole line has been proposed but would require construction of a number of bridges and railway crossings. Nonetheless, in August 2018 the NSW State Government announced a feasibility study to consider reinstating the line between Queanbeyan and Bombala. The study will also consider extending the line to Canberra airport and the Port of Eden.2

Photo 1: View to Bombala station from the goods platform, 1982. The Bombala station has since been restored and is used for community activities.

Photo 2: Cooma railway station, 1982. Restored rail motors operated between Cooma and Chakola until recently when track maintenance costs became prohibitive

Source: https://nswrail.net/photos/historic.php?page=6 accessed 22 April 2019. Photo credits: Geoff Allcock

Figure 3 outlines the study area for the purpose of this project.

2 Sources: Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Landuse Discussion Paper, 2019, https://nswrail.net/ and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombala_railway_line accessed 22 April, 2019.

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Figure 3: Study area (Source: Department of Planning, Industry and Environment)

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3. LITERATURE REVIEW

The following studies and relevant strategic documentation have been reviewed to gain a detailed understanding of the past and future anticipated strategic land use objectives for the region and, specifically, for the centre of Jindabyne:

1. South-East and Tableland Regional Plan 2036 (2017)

2. Jindabyne Action Plan 2030 (2010)

3. Jindabyne Growth Structure Plan (2007)

4. Cooma-Monaro Settlement Strategy Discussion Paper (2015)

5. Snowy Hydro 2 Feasibility Study (2017)

6. Snowy Hydro Exploratory Works Environmental Impact Statement (2018)

7. Snowy Monaro 2040 Community Strategic Plan (2018)

8. Snowy Monaro Regional Economic Development Strategy 2018-2022 (2018)

9. Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Land Use Discussion Paper (2019)

10. Snowy River Shire Council Analysis of Residential Supply and Demand (2010)

11. South East and Tablelands Sport and Action Recreation Plan 2018-2023 (2018)

The South East and Tablelands Regional Plan (2017) prepared by the NSW Government is the key strategic plan for the region, providing a series of directions and actions to guide the growth and orderly development of the region and its centres.

Figure 4 provides an illustrative overview of the plan, which highlights Jindabyne as a centre in close proximity to the Snowy Mountains and within 1-2 hours from Canberra. Cooma is the closest strategic centre, located to the north east of Jindabyne, providing employment services, educational establishments and an airport, which connects the region to NSW, Victoria and the ACT.

Given the role of the plan as the key strategic policy for the region, this literature review has been structured around the key directions and actions most relevant to this study.

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Figure 4: South East and Tablelands 2036 (Source: Department of Planning, Industry and Environment)

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3.1. Develop the Snowy Mountains into Australia’s Premier Year-Round Alpine Destination / Grow Tourism in the Region

Relevant Actions

Enhance opportunities for visitation and recreation on the Snowy River by improving access and signage.

Encourage tourism development in natural areas that support conservation outcomes.

Jindabyne acts as the gateway to the two major ski resorts (Thredbo and Perisher) as well as the smaller Charlotte Pass resort, providing a base for seasonal workers and tourists. A rapid influx of tourism occurs during winter and the school holidays, reflecting the region’s key features.

The region’s dependence on tourism is clear, with 13.6% of the LGA workforce employed in the accommodation and food service industry, and an additional 9.2% of local workers employed in the retail trade.

The Snowy Monaro 2040 Community Strategic Plan (2010) seeks to capture year-round opportunities within the tourism industry, promoting activities such as mountain biking, bushwalking, kayaking, recreational fishing and cultural and educational tourism. The priorities of the plan are to capitalise on the natural assets of the region and its location; to promote liveable towns and to further develop and promote the region’s visitor accommodation and recreational infrastructure.

Figure 5: Snowy Mountains Visitors (Source: Department of Planning, Industry and Environment)

The plan outlines one of the critical issues affecting Jindabyne – its seasonal population and the subsequent impacts on accommodation demand, local housing prices and the local housing market. Recent years have triggered a rise in demand for short-term stay accommodation, with flow-on effects for local housing prices meaning some homes have increased in cost by approximately $242,000 over 5-years3.

Several other issues affect the region. These include a lack of road infrastructure, especially for heavy vehicles and the import and export of goods and services to the region; a lack of connectivity to global markets and congestion along the Monaro highway. Environmental and social constraints such as limited accommodation options and shortages in rental accommodation4 also impact the region.

The issues above are outlined in several strategic plans, such as the Jindabyne Growth Structure Plan (2007) and the Jindabyne Action Plan 2030 (2010). The most recent strategic plan for the region (the South East and Tablelands Regional Plan (2017)) also highlights the importance of providing a range of housing options to meet the needs of permanent renters, people with disabilities, seniors and seasonal staff. This suggests a consistent trend in housing and infrastructure concerns in the region.

3.2. Promote Business Activities in Urban Centres

Relevant Actions

Use flexible planning controls to facilitate knowledge-intensive industries and the development of small work hubs.

Encourage mixed use developments that cater for commercial, retail, residential and tourism uses through local planning controls.

3 Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Land use Discussion Paper 2019 4 Snowy Monaro Regional Economic Development Strategy 2018-2022

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The current major employers in Jindabyne relate primarily to providing for visitors in the alpine resorts, with Snowy Hydro, other government agencies, and local shopping centres also providing employment opportunities.

The importance of growing a diverse range of jobs in addition to those highlighted above and the provision of essential urban services (such as health and education) is highlighted in the current literature on the region. Accommodating this direction will require appropriately zoned land for employment growth and the provision of suitable housing types for permanent workers.

3.3. Deliver Greater Housing Supply and Choice

Relevant Actions

Promote increased housing choice, including townhouses, villas and apartments in strategic centres and locations close to existing services and jobs.

The South East and Tablelands Regional Plan (2017) indicates that at least 28,500 new homes will be needed by 2036 to cater to expected population growth. A variety of housing options - from urban lifestyles in regional centres with shops, restaurants and services to rural residential, coastal and alpine lifestyles – are expected to be offered.

The Snowy River Shire Council Analysis of Residential Supply and Demand identifies that land supply will need to change and include a variety of lot sizes to meet future needs, catering for the:

▪ permanent residential population – who live and work in Jindabyne full time (who primarily require land for single detached dwellings);

▪ seasonal residential population – who are employed in the area during the peak season and who regularly stay during peak season (who primarily require both single detached dwellings and multi-unit dwellings in central locations); and,

▪ visitors/tourists – who visit during peak and off-peak season (who primarily require a variety of accommodation types). Recent trends indicate a preference of single dwelling houses to share with other families, preferably close to facilities.

There are also indications that suggest that there is an oversupply of multi-unit, centralised accommodation. It is expected that demand for land is likely to occur in the short- to medium-term.

With regards to the expected demand for land, existing planning strategies show there is enough zoned land with development potential for the market to supply housing in a range of locations; however, services and utility costs can deter development in parts of the region surrounding Jindabyne.

The research from the Snowy River Shire Council Analysis of Residential Supply and Demand, which was prepared in 2010, indicates that the Jindabyne study area has a current supply of 144 vacant lots of residential land, with an additional 260 potential lots to be released as demand dictates. These lots are predominately concentrated around Highview Estate, Jindabyne East and Tyrolean Village, which are either too far from the town centre or do not have views of the northern extent of Lake Jindabyne. Of the 144 vacant lots, it is estimated that only 95 residential and 13 rural residential properties are fit to be sold.

Land supply in Jindabyne is affected by some significant land constraints, most notably topography, land slope, available infrastructure (water and sewer) and issues surrounding effluent disposal and permafrost.

However, delivering greater housing supply and choice does not always require the release of new land. Infill development (discussed in greater detail in the next section) is an option that utilises existing infrastructure and urban areas. The Community Strategic Plan (2018) is supportive of mixed-use infill development, so long as it addresses the needs of permanent rentals, people with disabilities and seasonal staff without impinging on sense of community, place and quality of life.

Although some residents are supportive of mixed-use and infill development, the Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Land use Discussion Paper (2019) demonstrates that R5 Large Lot Residential zoned land is a popular and attractive space for people to live; however, it is often difficult to service

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and expensive to maintain. The fringe of Jindabyne predominately features RU1 Primary Production zoned land and comprises the majority of farmland and rural landscape. RU5 Village zoned land is considered more appropriate for Jindabyne, as it provides flexibility for both residential land (in a range of densities) and commercial development.

Recent developments in the Snowy 2.0 project indicate that it is unlikely to have a significant impact on housing supply and demand in Jindabyne. The majority of employees are expected to opt for a fly-in-fly-out or drive-in-drive-out lifestyle. The current housing supply can support the number of workers expected to relocate to the area.

3.4. Focus Housing Growth in Locations that Maximise Infrastructure and Services

Relevant Actions:

▪ Focus future settlement to locations that:

maximise existing infrastructure and services and minimise the need for new services;

prioritise increased densities within existing urban areas; and

prioritise new release areas that are an extension of existing strategic and local centres.

▪ Plan for and prioritise services and infrastructure investment to maximise cost efficiencies, coordinate the delivery of different infrastructure assets, and achieve equitable sharing of responsibility, including funding, procurement and ongoing maintenance.

The Jindabyne Growth Structure Plan (2007) highlights infrastructure as a key issue constraining development. Community consultation as part of the Jindabyne Action Plan (2010) highlighted that there is insufficient social, health and educational infrastructure and seniors housing in the region. Road infrastructure in the region also struggles, as the local road network is at capacity during peak season and periods.

In order to maximise existing infrastructure and prioritise infrastructure improvements, infill development is considered the preferred choice to accommodate housing growth. This is because it allows land to be developed in an orderly and efficient manner and utilises existing infrastructure, which reduces servicing costs for developers. Additionally, the existing pattern of occupancy suggests that medium density unit-style accommodation is favoured by visitors and seasonal workers5. This type of housing is best supported in existing urban areas.

The Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Land Use Discussion Paper (2019), suggests that a mix of land zoning types are popular in Jindabyne. These include:

▪ R1 General Residential zoned land. This should be provided in urban areas, close to services and infrastructure that can accommodate higher densities.

▪ R5 Large Lot Residential zoned land. This land is attractive to the permanent residential population and is better suited to the outskirts of Jindabyne. Connecting to existing or new infrastructure can be costly.

▪ RU1 Primary Production zoned land. This comprises the majority of farmland and rural landscape on the fringe of Jindabyne. Connecting to existing or new infrastructure can be costly.

▪ RU5 Village zoned land. This land provides flexibility for a variety of residential and commercial densities. It may be located within an existing serviced area or may require connection to existing/new infrastructure.

The location of these zones and the way they are serviced by existing or new infrastructure is essential to encouraging housing growth in suitable locations.

5 Snowy Monaro Regional Economic Development Strategy 2018-2022

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3.5. Deliver more Opportunities for Affordable Housing

Relevant Actions:

Deliver greater housing affordability by incorporating policies and tools into local housing strategies and local planning controls that will enable a greater variety of housing types and incentivise private investment in affordable housing.

Facilitate greater housing diversity, including studios and one- and two-bedroom dwellings, to match forecast changes in household sizes.

The shortage of rental accommodation and limited housing stock in Jindabyne is a barrier to attracting families and workers to the region. It is also putting pressure on rental prices for local residents6. The shortage of appropriately zoned land exacerbates housing supply pressures and increases prices and costs.

The housing market is further impacted by peak season and the sub-letting of houses, making it difficult for seasonal workers to find accommodation suitable to their income and needs, forcing them out of the Jindabyne area.

The South East Tablelands Regional Plan seeks to establish appropriate planning controls and incentives that will address the housing challenges facing the region, whilst also delivering additional affordable housing. Incentives currently being considered include:

▪ affordable housing contributions (from developers) to fund the provision of new housing by community housing providers;

▪ planning and development controls to facilitate affordable housing development by local community housing organisations; and,

▪ incentives to increase housing affordability such as greater density, new generation boarding houses, secondary dwellings and granny flats.

It is therefore crucial that a balanced approach to housing is adopted. Focusing growth in existing centres rather than isolated land releases is a sustainable option because it takes advantage of existing job markets, commercial and retail opportunities, and transport infrastructure. It also protects the rural and scenic qualities of the region, which is valued by both residents and visitors. A suitable mix of housing types – including affordable housing - is needed to cater for the long-term needs of locals and the short-term needs of seasonal workers and visitors.

Increasing housing supply and variety will ensure more housing is available to meet the various needs of the population, ultimately making Jindabyne a more affordable place to live.

6 Snowy Monaro Region Planning and Land use Discussion Paper 2019

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4. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

4.1. Introduction

This demographic analysis forms one chapter of the ‘Go Jindabyne Demographic and Housing Study’. It provides an assessment of past and future population growth with detail on the components of growth. Analysis of the age structure provides useful indicators of infrastructure demand and highlights the uniqueness of the population structure. Household and family composition is also considered.

Separate sections analyse the population in terms of permanent and temporary residents and different types of visitors. The need for social infrastructure like schools, health and community facilities is largely dependent on the permanent population but may need to be able to cope with seasonal peaks. In particular, the impacts on the housing market from these different populations is necessary to appreciate and plan for.

The following sections outline some important concepts and data issues relevant to this demographic analysis.

4.1.1. Population concepts

Usual resident

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses a particular concept for a ‘usual resident’. While we might think of a usual resident as someone who usually lives in a specific location, there are important details associated with this. For example, to be classed as a usual resident in Census data, the respondent must indicate that they usually lived at the address listed on the Census form. The instructions included with the Census form instruct respondents to consider ‘usually live’ as the person having lived or intending to live for a total of six months or more in 2016 at the address.

In order to provide population estimates between the Census dates, ABS use the Census usual resident population as a base, adds births, subtracts deaths and models migration flows. The concept of the ‘resident’ generally remains as someone who has lived, or is likely to live at the location for six months during the reference year. The exception is for people from overseas who must remain in Australia for 12 out of a period of 16 months in order to be included in the resident population.

This report uses both usual resident and enumerated population data.

Census counts

Various counts of the Census population are provided. First, there is the enumerated population, which is the number of people counted at a particular location. In locations such as Jindabyne, given the early August timing of the Census coinciding with peak snow season occupation, this means a substantial number of visitors are captured in the enumerated population.

Second, there is the usual resident count. This reflects the number of people who were counted at home, plus those people who were away from home but indicated their usual residence. This count differs from estimates of the resident population (ERPs). ERPs refer to the 30th of June each year while Census counts refer to the date of the Census in August each five years. Thus, the ERP has the number of births, deaths and estimates of migration ‘adjusted’ from the Census usual resident base.

This report uses both Census counts and estimates of the resident population.

Temporary populations

In addition to people who were usually resident in an area, others are temporarily found there. This might include seasonal workers, second homeowners or other visitors including domestic, overseas and day tripper visitors. The length of stay may vary for each category of this temporary population, and may also vary according to the time of year depending on weather conditions, holiday periods etc.

This report provides detail, where available on each category of the temporary population.

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4.1.2. Total population

The total population present in a location at any one time will vary. This is particularly so in a location like Jindabyne where seasonal influxes of visitors and associated workers swell the numbers. Due to data deficiencies it is not possible to calculate estimates of this total population at different points in the year. Using data on seasonal trends in room occupancy, this report makes an experimental estimate of the total population at June 2016.

This total population includes usual residents, temporary workers, domestic and overseas visitors and second homeowners. It does not include day trippers as they would not be generating demand for accommodation. However, day trippers would contribute to traffic on the roads, water and sewage loads, food and recreation services demands.

4.1.3. Timing of data items

As noted, estimates of the resident population refer to 30th June in the reference year while Census data relates to early August in the year the Census was conducted. However, other data used in this report are available at different reference periods. Wherever possible the data for 30th June 2018 has been used in order to maintain as much consistency as possible. In some cases, this was not feasible, and this is noted when appropriate.

Ideally, data would be available at a number of points throughout the year. Only some of the tourist statistics were available on this basis, providing a useful indication of seasonal variation. Some research is currently underway to investigate the validity of using social media or other indicators to provide a guide to the size of the population. To date, these approaches have not provided sufficiently robust and replicable data to be used for population estimation purposes.

4.1.4. Data and geographical boundaries

Different data items are not only available at different time points, but also for different areas. Census data for example is available for the largest number of geographical boundaries including those used in this report covering Local Government Areas, Statistical Areas 2, and Urban Centres and Localities. However, the annual estimates of the resident population are not provided for the Urban Centres and Localities geography, nor the much smaller meshblocks.

For this reason, an approximation of the Go Jindabyne Demographic and Housing study area has been used for many data items. This area, the Greater Jindabyne urban area has been compiled by aggregating the main population areas within the Go Jindabyne Demographic and Housing study area. These include the urban centre of Jindabyne, and the localities of East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate. Figure 3 illustrates the location of these individual areas. The balance of the study area is rural and more sparsely populated.

For some data items, the SA2 of Jindabyne-Berridale has had to be used. While this includes the urban centre of Berridale and is a larger area than the Go Jindabyne study area, the characteristics and indicators able to be derived from using data at this geographic level are valuable.

Finally, the Local Government Area (LGA) of Snowy Monaro Regional Council area is also used in this report. This is the parent LGA for Jindabyne and is the level of geography used for comparing regional growth. In addition, this study called for a comparison of past growth with projected growth using the published NSW Government population projections. These projections are only available at an LGA level.

4.1.5. Data sources and deficiencies

All data sources have been noted in the text or below figures or tables. Data has been obtained from reputable outlets such as ABS or the Bureau of Tourism Research. While the latest data has been used where available, there are inconsistencies in data coverage for the most recent period.

As noted above, there is no definitive source of population data that provides estimates of the total population at various points in a year. As a result, the estimate of the total population at June 2018

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provided in this report must be considered indicative. Much more work is required to develop a robust measure. However, if considered worthwhile, local areas like Jindabyne could proactively collect the necessary data to develop their own estimates. A very modest quarterly data collection of ratepayers, commercial and private accommodation providers would provide sufficient data to develop total population estimates.

4.2. Current Population Trends

4.2.1. Population and geographic summary

As mentioned in the Introduction, various population totals and geographic boundaries are used in this report. Table 1 summarises this data.

Table 1: Population and geographic boundaries used in this report

Population (date)

Dates used in report

Geographic boundary Source Explanation

20,733 (2018 preliminary)

2006, 2011, 2016, 2018

Snowy Monaro Regional Council (LGA)

ABS, Estimates of resident population (Cat no. 3218.0)

Parent area used to provide context

7,173 (2018 preliminary)

2006, 2011, 2016, 2018

Jindabyne-Berridale SA2

ABS, Estimates of resident population (Cat no. 3218.0)

Broad study area used for analysis of selected characteristics and to produced forecasts

2,604 (2016) 2006, 2011, 2016

Jindabyne urban centre plus East Jindabyne locality plus Lakewood Estate locality

ABS, Census of Population and Housing

Data for Jindabyne urban centre was combined with locality data for East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate to form the Greater Jindabyne urban area used throughout the report.

2,907 (2016) 2016 Selected SA1s ABS, Census of Population and Housing

A grouping of SA1s comprising the Go Jindabyne study area used to estimate populations.

Each population estimate or geographic boundary is used to provide useful information in this report. Ideally all analysis would be reported on the exact Go Jindabyne study area. However, this is not possible due to the statistical geography used by the ABS and the differing scale at which different data items are released. The mix of population concepts and geographic boundaries are more fully explained in the Introduction. Each table and figure presented in the report, identifies the population concept and geographic boundary on which it is based.

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4.2.2. Population changes at the regional scale

Included areas:

Jindabyne’s parent Local Government Area (LGA) of Snowy Monaro Regional Council neighbours on the northern boundary, the Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The western boundary abutting Snowy Valleys Council is largely national park with limited seasonal road access and a limited permanent population. Similarly, the eastern boundary shared with Bega Valley and Eurobadalla Councils is sparsely populated, although the Snowy Mountains Highway does provide a link through to Bega. The southern boundary is the New South Wales-Victorian border with adjoining Victorian areas comprising sparsely settled, agricultural and forestry lands with no sizeable population centres (Figure 6).

For the purposes of assessing population change in the broader region, Jindabyne and Snowy Monaro Regional Council’s links through the northern corridor to Canberra and Queanbeyan are considered the most important.

Pace of growth:

The population of the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area is dwarfed by the number of residents in Queanbeyan-Palerang and the ACT (Table 2). ACT has 20 times more people than does the Snowy Monaro Regional area, while Queanbeyan-Palerang has almost three times as many. Unsurprisingly, the two areas of ACT and Queanbeyan-Palerang recorded faster rates of growth in 2017-18 (2.2% and 1.9% respectively) than Snowy Monaro Regional Council (0.3%).

Table 2: Estimated resident population and change over time, selected NSW LGAs and ACT, 2006-2018

Average annual change (no.) Average annual change (%)

Local Government Area

2006 2011 2016 2018(p) 2006-11 2006-16 2016-18 2006-11 2011-16 2016-18

Snowy Monaro Regional Area

20,008 20,386 20,558 20,733 76 34 88 0.4 0.2 0.4

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Area

50,070 54,844 57,790 59,959 955 589 1,085 1.8 1.1 1.9

Australian Capital Territory

335,170 367,985 403,104 420,960 6,563 7,024 8,928 1.9 1.8 2.2

Source: ABS, (2019). Regional Population Growth, Australia (2017-18). Cat No 3218.0 Notes: (p) – preliminary

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Figure 6: Regional context map

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Population trends

Since 2006, the ACT consistently recorded the fastest pace of growth among these three areas. Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council grew more rapidly between 2006-2011 (average of 1.8% per annum), compared with the following five-year period 2011-2016 (1.1% per annum), however, growth then increased between 2016-2018 to surpass earlier periods (1.9% per annum).

A similar pattern of fast growth between 2006-2011, followed by a slowing of growth between 2011-2016, then a return to the more rapid growth of earlier periods during 2016-2018 is evident for Snowy Monaro Regional Council.

Over the 12 years to 2018, annual population increases in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area have remained low at less than 100 persons per annum.

4.2.3. Population changes at the local scale

Included areas

Within the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, Jindabyne falls within the Jindabyne-Berridale Statistical Area 2 (SA2). Other SA2s in the Council area include Cooma, Cooma Region, Bombala and a small part of the Queanbeyan Region SA2 (hereafter referred to as the 'Balance' area). For the purposes of reviewing population change at the local scale, the four main SA2s found in Cooma Monaro Regional Council, plus the Balance area have been included (Figure 7).

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Figure 7: SA2 map

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Pace and amount of growth

The Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 has consistently been the location of the majority of population growth in the Snowy Monaro Regional Area since 2006 (Table 3). Over this period, Bombala recorded a decline in population (down 177 people between 2006 and 2018). The SA2 of Cooma also recorded a population decline between 2006 and 2016, however, the area has remained stable in the two years since. Only the Cooma Region SA2 and the Balance area (see the note below Table 2 for a definition) also recorded population growth.

All growing SA2s experienced similar patterns of faster growth between 2006-2011, followed by a slowdown in growth between 2011-2016, then a return during the two years to 2018, to almost match earlier levels of growth. Jindabyne-Berridale, with more than twice the population of the Cooma Region, recorded both the largest and the fastest growth.

The Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 has consistently been the location of most of the population growth in the Snowy Monaro Regional Area between 2006 and 2018.

Table 3: Estimated resident population and change over time, SA2s in Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2006-2018

Average annual change (no.) Average annual change

(%)

Region 2006 2011 2016 2018 (p) 2006-11 2006-16 2016-18 (p)

2006-11 2011-16 2016-18 (p)

Bombala SA2 2,589 2,484 2,420 2,415 -21 -13 -3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1

Cooma SA2 7,022 6,935 6,870 6,872 -17 -13 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0

Cooma Region SA2

3,141 3,271 3,327 3,371 26 11 22 0.8 0.3 0.7

Jindabyne – Berridale SA2

6,585 6,905 7,071 7,173 64 33 51 1.0 0.5 0.7

Balance1 671 791 870 902 24 16 16 3.6 2.0 1.8

Snowy Monaro Regional Area2

20,008 20,386 20,558 20,733 76 34 88 0.4 0.2 0.4

Source: ABS, (2019). Regional Population Growth, Australia (2017-18). Cat No 3218.0 Notes: (p) – preliminary 1. The balance area represents that part of the Queanbeyan Region SA2 found in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area.

This SA2 is predominantly in the Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council area. The population estimates shown have been calculated by subtracting the total of the four main SA2s from the total Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. They should be considered indicative only.

2. The total for the Snowy Monaro Regional Area includes that small part of the Queanbeyan Region SA2 found within Snowy Monaro. This SA2 includes substantial areas of urban development close to Queanbeyan City, plus a number of village communities. In 2018, the four SA2s shown in the table above accounted for 96% of the population of Snowy Monaro Regional Council.

Population trends

Between 2006-2011, population growth in Jindabyne-Berridale accounted for 85% of growth in the Snowy Monaro Regional area, increasing to 96% of the total between 2011-2016, but then easing back to 58% between 2016-2018. Over the 12 years to 2018, Jindabyne-Berridale added an average of 49 people each year, while the total for the Snowy Monaro Regional area was 60 people each year.

The Balance area recorded consistent growth over the three periods and has had the fastest population increase of any area within the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. This is due to the closer

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proximity to the main employment and population centres of Queanbeyan and Canberra. Growth in this area has eased in recent years.

4.2.4. Population change at the urban centre and locality level

Included areas

Population estimates are also provided for smaller geographic areas called urban centres and localities. These locations represent areas of concentrated development with populations of 200 or more, however, this is not an official definition of a town. Some gazetted towns have populations less than 200. In contrast, urban centres and localities are identified using dwelling and population density criteria obtained from each Census. Available population data refers to the Census years of 2006, 2011 and 2016.

The three urban centres (population greater than 1,000 people) of Cooma, Jindabyne and Bombala, plus the eight localities (population between 200 and 1,000 people) found in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area along with their populations at 2006, 2011 and 2016 are shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Usual residents1, urban centres and localities2 in Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2006, 2011 and 2016

Population change (no.) Population change (%)

Urban Centres and Localities 2006 2011 2016 2006-11 20011-16 2006-11 2011-16

Adaminaby (L) 236 228 204 -8 -24 -3.4 -10.5

Berridale (L) 843 912 952 69 40 8.2 4.4

Bombala (UCL) 1,206 1,210 1,202 4 -8 0.3 -0.7

Cooma (UCL) 6,589 6,303 6,379 -286 76 -4.3 1.2

Delegate (L) 303 269 279 -34 10 -11.2 3.7

East Jindabyne (L) 415 552 606 137 54 33.0 9.8

Jindabyne (UCL) 1,902 1,727 1,770 -175 43 -9.2 2.5

Lakewood Estate (L) 176 236 228 60 -8 34.1 -3.4

Nimmitabel (L) 234 224 230 -10 6 -4.3 2.7

Perisher Village (L) 133 148 104 15 -44 11.3 -29.7

Thredbo Village (L) 476 470 390 -6 -80 -1.3 -17.0

Total UCLs 12,521 12,276 12,346 -245 70 -2.0 0.6

Balance (rural area)3 6,929 7,415 7,872 486 457 7.0 6.2

Snowy Monaro Regional Council area

19,450 19,691 20,218 241 527 1.2 2.7

Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing, Community profiles. Notes: 1. Usual residents are determined at the time of each Census, usually early August, by individuals reporting their usual address.

This population concept is different from the estimate of the resident population (ERP), modelled each year as at the 30th June. Thus, populations reported in this table differ from estimates of the resident population shown in Table 2.

2. Urban centres and localities are a specific geographic designation. Thus, the urban centre of Jindabyne differs from the SA2 of Jindabyne-Berridale.

3. Data for the ‘Balance (Rural Area)’ was obtained by subtracting the total for all urban centres and localities from the total for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. These figures should be regarded as indicative.

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Population trends

Smaller settlements have generally experienced population decline over the decade between 2006 and 2016. This has ranged from a decline of four persons at Nimmitabel, to a loss of 24 persons at Delegate and 32 persons at Adaminaby. In the cases of Nimmitabel and Delegate, population decline in the 2006-2011 period has been halted and more recently, between 2011-2016 both localities recorded modest population growth.

The two resort areas of Perisher Village and Thredbo Village each recorded population losses over the decade. The largest loss of resident population was in Thredbo Village, declining by 86 people over the decade to 2016. (Note, there may be some inconsistencies with the way permanent residents, temporary residents and visitors were treated over this period.)

The picture among the larger urban centres and localities is more mixed. The urban centre of Cooma, with the largest population of any urban centre or locality in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, recorded a substantial decline of more than 280 people between 2006-2011. This trend was reversed in the following five years when the urban centre of Cooma added 76 people. Nonetheless, the net result is a population decline of 210 people between 2006-2011.

The population trend for the urban centre of Bombala can be classified as stable. Very small amounts of population change made little net difference to the population of the area over the decade to 2016. In contrast, population change in the locality of Berridale has resulted in growth in each of the two five-year periods to 2016. While growth eased between 2011-2016 compared with the previous period, an increase of 40 people over the five years remains noteworthy.

Jindabyne population trends

It is not possible to compile an area based on ABS statistical geography that coincides exactly with the Go Jindabyne study area as well as providing the necessary detail on population trends and characteristics. However, an area comprising Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) has been aggregated to provide an estimate of the resident population of the study area at 2016. This area, comprising eight separate SA1s, had a usual resident population of 2,907 people at the time of the 2016 Census (Table 5), accounting for 42% of usual residents in the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2.

Table 5: Usual residents1 of small statistical areas2 representing the Go Jindabyne study area, 2016

Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing, Table Builder. Notes: 1. Usual residents are determined at the time of each Census, usually early August, by individuals reporting their usual address.


2. Statistical Area 1s are a specific geographic designation. Thus, the aggregation reported in Table 4 differs from other geographic areas reported elsewhere.

SA1 (short number) Location/geographic name

2016 usual

resident

population

1609Rural balance (south of

Lakewood Estate)300

1613 Lakewood Estate 228

1614 Jindabyne west 357

1615 Jindabyne south 362

1616 Jindabyne central 435

1617 Jindabyne east 416

1618East Jindabyne (incl.

Tyrolean Village)606

1620 Jindabyne north 203

Total area 2,907

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The majority of the population of this aggregated area was found in the Jindabyne central area, East Jindabyne and the Lakewood Estate. Two rural balance areas, one to the south of Jindabyne, and another to the north of Jindabyne contained a total of 503 people. These 500 people are not included in the following analysis as it is based on an aggregation of different statistical areas (these statistical areas have been used as population characteristics are available at this level). These areas contain most of the population in the Go Jindabyne study area. It is estimated that around 500 people in the rural areas to the south and north of Jindabyne are not included.

Three separate statistical areas have been combined to form the Greater Jindabyne urban area. Included is the urban centre of Jindabyne itself, plus the smaller but closely related localities of East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate (Figure 8). This area provides the best statistical coverage of the Go Jindabyne study area.

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Figure 8: Greater Jindabyne urban area. Notes: The Greater Jindabyne urban area comprises the urban centre of Jindabyne, and the localities of East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate. While not contiguous, this area encompasses the urban settlement and population associated with Jindabyne.

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Of these three areas, Jindabyne had the largest population but recorded a population decline of 175 people between 2006-2011. This loss was reversed, and an increase of 43 people occurred in the following five years to 2016. However, the net result for the decade was a loss of 132 people for the urban centre of Jindabyne (Table 6).

Table 6: Usual residents1, urban centres and localities2 in the Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2006, 2011 and 2016

Population change (no.) Population change (%)

Region 2006 2011 2016 2006-11 20011-16 2006-11 2011-16

East Jindabyne (L) 415 552 606 137 54 33.0 9.8

Jindabyne (UCL) 1,902 1,727 1,770 -175 43 -9.2 2.5

Lakewood Estate (L) 176 236 228 60 -8 34.1 -3.4

Total greater Jindabyne urban area

2,493 2,515 2,604 22 89 0.9 3.5

Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing, Community profiles. Notes: 1. Usual residents are determined at the time of each Census, usually early August, by individuals reporting their usual address.


2. Urban centres and localities are a specific geographic designation. Thus, the urban centre of Jindabyne differs from the SA2 of Jindabyne-Berridale.

3. UCL – urban centre 4. L – locality

Most growth in the Greater Jindabyne urban area was in East Jindabyne, while the Jindabyne urban centre lost population.

In contrast, East Jindabyne with a population only around one-third the size of the main urban centre of Jindabyne, recorded population growth of almost 200 people over the decade to 2016. Growth of 137 people between 2006-2011, eased to an increase of 54 people over the five years to 2016. The much smaller population of Lakewood Estate grew between 2006-2011 but then recorded a population loss of 8 people in the following five years.

Summary

Overall, the dominant pattern of population change for urban centres and localities in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area is one of population decline. For the total of all urban centres and localities shown in Table 6, substantial population decline over the five years to 2011 was reversed in the following five years. However, the net result for the decade was a population decline of 175 people as more recent growth was not enough to balance earlier losses.

It is important to recognise that this pattern of overall population decline masks changes at a local level. For example, the population growth recorded for the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, is the result of growth in the localities of Berridale and East Jindabyne, as well as the rural surrounds. This growth was sufficient to balance population decline evident in the main urban centre of Jindabyne.

Population change in the non-urban areas of the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area (shown as the Balance area in Table 6) is also worth highlighting. Substantial population growth occurred in both five year periods 2006-2011 and 2011-2016, with total growth of 940 people over the decade. While some of this growth occurred in the Queanbeyan Region SA2 closer to Queanbeyan and Canberra (see Table 5), most of the growth occurred in the rural areas outside of those urban centres and localities reported in Table 6 above. For example, the village of Dalgety with a population less than 200 persons is not identified separately as a locality (see Dalgety’s location on Figure 2). It is, however, included in the broader Dalgety State Suburb area, which recorded a usual resident population of 205 persons in 2016. Anecdotal information suggests some growth in the village and surrounds.

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Considerable population growth has occurred in rural and non-urban areas. This is important for determining future dwelling demand and service requirements. Patterns of annual population change for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2

Annual estimates of the population are available for the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, allowing a detailed analysis of change over time not possible when using the urban centre and locality geography as data is only available for Census years. In 2006, Jindabyne-Berridale had a population of 6,341 people. By 2018, the population had increased by 832 people to reach 7,173 people.

While population change has averaged growth of 49 persons each year between 2001 and 2018, there have been considerable fluctuations in individual years. In 2001-02 for example, an increase of 156 people was recorded, while only two years later in 2003-04, this growth reversed and there was a population loss of one person. This was the only year where the population declined and there has only been one other year (2006-07) where population growth exceeded 100 people (Figure 9).

Annual population change over the past two years (2016-17 and 2017-18) equalled the longer-term average of 49 persons per year.

Figure 9: Annual population change, Estimated Resident Population, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2001-02 to 2017-181

Source: ABS, (2019). Regional Population Growth, Australia (2017-18). Cat No 3218.0. Accessed from ABS.Stat on 15 April 2019. Notes: 1. Data is final for 2001 to 2016, revised for 2017 and preliminary for 2018.

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4.3. Age structure

For the following analysis, data at the urban centre and locality scale has been aggregated to form a Greater urban area of Jindabyne consisting of the Jindabyne urban centre, the locality of East Jindabyne and the locality of Lakewood Estate. This analysis investigates how this Greater urban area of Jindabyne may differ from the other main urban centre of Cooma and from the nearby locality of Berridale.

4.3.1. Jindabyne has a younger population than Cooma

In 2016, the urban centre of Cooma with a much larger population, had more people in every 10-year age group than did Jindabyne or Berridale. However, in the locality of Berridale, young people comprised a slightly larger share of the population than in either Cooma or Jindabyne. In Berridale, children and young people aged less than 20 years accounted for close to one-quarter of the population (25%). This compared with 23% in the Greater Jindabyne urban area and just over 21% in the urban centre of Cooma (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Broad age structure, Usual Resident Population, Cooma urban centre, Greater Jindabyne urban area and Berridale locality, 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April 2019).

In contrast, while Cooma and Berridale had similar shares of people aged between 20 and 39 years (around 22%), in Jindabyne this age group represented 33% of the population. All three areas had a broadly similar share of the population aged between 40 and 59 years with Cooma urban centre having the smallest share (27%). However, older people aged 60 years and over accounted for a much larger share of both Cooma’s population (29%) and Berridale’s population (25%), than in Jindabyne (15%).

Jindabyne had an over-representation of young working age people aged between 20 and 34 years, while in contrast, Cooma and Berridale had higher population shares of both the youngest and the oldest populations.

4.3.2. Jindabyne’s special age structure

The age structure of the Greater Jindabyne urban area is distinctive among smaller rural and regional communities. The larger share of the population found in the young working ages (20-34 years) reflects

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employment opportunities not often available in such communities. However, it appears that these employment opportunities may be somewhat tenuous as the larger population of young workers does not translate into older longer-term residents.

In 2016, the five-year age groups with the largest number of people were 20-24 years and 25-29 years (Figure 11). This was the case for both males and females. While containing relatively small numbers, the 15-19 years age group also contained more people than would normally be seen in a population of this size found in regional communities. Young people aged 17, 18 and 19 usually leave these communities in search of employment or educational opportunities.

The next largest age groups were those between 40 and 54 years representing people of slightly older working age. These were followed by an older age profile consistent with regional areas located close to environmental attractions and within reach of higher order transport, shopping, medical and entertainment options. Such areas have seen a ‘tree-change’ in-flow maintaining relative stability among the older age groups in the pre- and post-retirement phases.

Figure 11: Five-year age sex profile, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

4.3.3. How Jindabyne’s age structure has changed

In 2006, the Greater Jindabyne urban area’s population totalled 2,490 people. Over the following five years, the population grew by a modest 31 people, but during the following five years to 2016, a further 90 people brought the population to 2,613 people. However, the population of some age groups increased more than others, while the number of people in other age groups declined (Figure 12).

The population of the Greater Jindabyne urban area grew by 111 people over the decade to 2016, reaching just over 2,600 people

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Figure 12: Five-year age sex profile, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2006, 2011 and 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April 2019).

In order to summarise these changes and determine the impact on service and infrastructure demand, age groups have been aggregated into broad categories. This shows that there has been a decline of young people aged less than 15 years, as well as a decline among those aged between 35 and 49 years (Figure 13). This has implications on demand for childcare and school education and training places, as well as more general services required by young families.

In the place of these young family age groups, the number of young people aged between 20-34 years has grown (returning to a 26% share of the population after declining to 23% in 2011). The number of people in the older working ages or pre-retirement age groups (50-64 years), grew by a sizeable number (up from 16% to 19% of the population). In line with population ageing, the number of people aged 65 and over also increased, jumping from 8% of the population to 11% by 2016.

While the total population grew by over 100 people, the number of children aged less than 15 years and the number of people aged between 35-49 years declined over the decade to 2016. In their place, there were more people in the young working ages (20-34 years), and those aged 50 years and over.

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Figure 13: Change in broad age groups, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2011-2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

4.4. Household and family structure

In the Greater Jindabyne urban area at the 2016 Census, there were 2,085 dwellings surveyed. The largest category, accounting for 30% of all dwellings is termed ‘Not classifiable’ and refers to dwellings that were either non-private or unoccupied at the time of the Census. The next largest category representing 23% of dwellings was Visitor only households, followed by Lone person households (13%). Dwellings containing family households represented just 27% of all dwellings, while those containing families with children accounted for only 15% of dwellings in 2016 (Figure 14).

In 2016 over half (54%) of dwellings in the Greater Jindabyne urban area were either non-private dwellings, occupied by visitors or unoccupied at the time of the Census. Just over one-quarter of dwellings (27%) contained family households.

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Figure 14: Dwellings by household and family composition, Enumerated Population, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016 Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019. Notes: 1. The Greater Jindabyne urban area refers to the combined Jindabyne urban centre plus the two localities of East Jindabyne

and Lakewood Estate. 2. The ‘not applicable’ category refers to dwellings that were either classed as non-private dwellings, or were unoccupied at

the time of the Census.

Both East Jindabyne (48%) and the much smaller Lakewood Estate (56%), had much larger shares of their dwellings occupied by families. In contrast, in the urban centre of Jindabyne only 21% of dwellings contained families. Additionally, 5% of dwellings in Jindabyne were occupied by group households compared with only 2.5% in East Jindabyne and none in Lakewood Estate.

Despite there being a number of non-private or unoccupied dwellings in East Jindabyne accounting for 21% of all dwellings, fully one-third of dwellings in Jindabyne were in this category. In addition, more than one-quarter of all dwellings in Jindabyne (26%) were visitor-only households at the time of the 2016 Census. This compares with 11% of dwellings in East Jindabyne.

Thus, almost 60% of dwellings in the Jindabyne urban centre were either non-private dwellings,

occupied by visitors, or unoccupied in 2016 (59%, see Table 7). This concentration of specific use

dwellings is notable, reflecting the highly specialised, resort nature and influence of tourism on the

Jindabyne community. In comparison, the share of dwellings in the urban centre of Cooma that were

either non-private, occupied by visitors or unoccupied was only 14%, with over 50% of dwellings

containing family households.

The nearly 60% of dwellings in Jindabyne urban centre being either non-private, occupied by visitors or unoccupied reflects the specialised nature of the village

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Table 7: Dwellings by household and family composition, Jindabyne urban centre, East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate localities, 2016

Jindabyne (UCL)

East Jindabyne

(L)

Lakewood Estate (L)

Combined Greater

Jindabyne urban area

Jindabyne (UCL)

East Jindabyne

(L)

Lakewood Estate (L)

Combined Greater

Jindabyne urban area

Not applicable1 549 69 20 638 33.1 21.5 19.2 30.6

Visitors only household

438 34 6 478 26.4 10.6 5.8 22.9

Lone person household

217 42 14 273 13.1 13.1 13.5 13.1

Couple family with children

56 71 35 235 3.4 22.1 33.7 11.3

Couple family no children

45 59 18 234 2.7 18.4 17.3 11.2

Group household 84 8 0 92 5.1 2.5 0.0 4.4

One parent family 56 23 5 84 3.4 7.2 4.8 4.0

Other non-classifiable household

36 6 0 42 2.2 1.9 0.0 2.0

Other Family 9 0 0 9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4

Total 1,661 321 104 2,085 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019. Notes: 1. ‘Not applicable’ refers to non-private and unoccupied dwellings

4.4.1. Changing household structure

Reviewing how the household and family structures have changed over time is problematic due to changing classifications and accuracy of collection methods. Excluding non-private dwellings and unoccupied dwellings, plus those dwellings where insufficient information was provided to enable a classification, there has been a total increase of 400 dwellings in the Greater Jindabyne urban area in the 10 years to 2016 (Table 8).

The largest increase in the ten years to 2016 was and extra 144 visitor only households, followed by an additional 93 lone person households.

The largest component of this increase was from an additional 144 visitor only households representing a 43% increase between 2006 and 2016. The next largest amount of growth was in lone person households (up 93 households or 53%), followed by couple families with no children households (up 53 households or 29%). The increasing number of one and two person households (excluding any potential two-person households comprising one parent families or two unrelated individuals living together) is consistent with demographic changes seen in many regional and rural areas where population ageing is impacting. The large increase in visitor only households reflects Jindabyne’s increasingly specialised character and the growing influence of tourism.

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Table 8: Change in dwellings by household and family composition, Jindabyne urban centre, East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate localities, 2016

2006-2016

No. %

Visitor only household 144 42.7%

Lone person 93 53.1%

Couple family no children 53 29.0%

One parent family 37 80.4%

Couple family with dep children 36 17.9%

Group household 30 49.2%

Other family 9 N/A

Total1 400 39.9%

Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019. Notes: 1. The ‘Total’ reported in Table 2 excludes non-private and unoccupied dwellings and other non-classifiable households.

4.5. Drivers of demographic change

Estimates of the components of population change have recently been produced for SA2s by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Thus, the following analysis considers the drivers of change between 2016-17 and 2017-18 in Jindabyne-Berridale compared with the surrounding areas.

4.5.1. Overseas migration is the largest contributor to population growth

Net overseas migration is the most important component of growth in Jindabyne-Berridale (Table 9). In 2016-17, the net overseas migration gain of 80 people offset a net internal migration loss of 58 people. In the following year, there was a net overseas migration gain of 74 people offsetting a net internal migration loss of 60 people. While migration flows are volatile, especially on a year-to-year basis, this consistency of sizeable net gains from overseas movement reflects tourism employment and general attractiveness of the location.

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Table 9: Components of population change, SA2s in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2016-17 and 2017-18

Components of population change 2016-17

Components of population change 2017-18

Change 2016pr-2017p

Natural increase

Net internal

migration

Net overseas migration

Change 2017pr-2018p

Natural increase

Net internal migration

Net overseas migration

SA2 No. No. No. No.

No. No. No. No.

Bombala -7 -13 4 2

1 -8 7 2

Cooma -18 -10 -43 35

15 9 -26 32

Cooma Region

13 1 3 9

29 14 7 8

Jindabyne- Berridale

41 19 -58 80

56 42 -60 74

Source: ABS, (2019). Regional Population Growth, Australia (2017-18). Cat No 3218.0. Data accessed from ABS.Stat 16 April 2019 Notes: p – preliminary r – revised

Jindabyne-Berridale’s net gain due to movement to and from overseas is the largest of any of the SA2s in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. Only Cooma also recorded a notable net gain of 32 people from overseas movement in 2017-18, following on from a net gain of 35 people in the previous year.

In 2016, around 130 usual residents of the Greater Jindabyne area reported that they were living overseas in 2011. Many of these people were Australian-born (32 people). Other main countries of birth included 29 people born in China, 24 people from North America (mostly people born in Canada), 16 people born in the United Kingdom and 13 people born in New Zealand.

Overseas migration is the biggest contributor to population growth in Jindabyne-Berridale, accounting for an extra 154 people in the population between 2016-18

In contrast, net internal migration losses recorded in Jindabyne-Berridale show a similar pattern to that recorded in the SA2 of Cooma. In Cooma, a loss of 43 people in 2016-17 eased slightly to a loss of 26 people in the following year 2017-18. In Jindabyne-Berridale, the net internal migration losses were larger in both years and increased in 2017-18 compared with the previous year (a loss of 58 people in 2016-17 and a loss of 60 people in 2017-18). In both Bombala and the Cooma Region, the size of the internal migration arrivals more closely matched the size of the internal migration departures leading to a smaller net impact in both areas.

More people moved away from Jindabyne-Berridale than moved in from other parts of Australia. The population declined by 118 people due to this out-flow between 2016-18

For both Cooma and Bombala, older age structures are contributing to a high number of deaths relative to the number of births resulting in natural decreases in most periods. The Cooma Region recorded an increase in the number of births in 2017-18 compared with the previous year (up 16 births). This resulted in a larger contribution from natural increase to increased population growth.

Similarly, natural increase in Jindabyne-Berridale was up in 2017-18 compared with the previous year (42 in 2017-18 compared with 19 in 2016-17). This was the result of an increase in births (up 15 births) in 2017-18 over the previous year.

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4.5.2. Internal migration flows are the largest

Figure 15 shows the relative contribution of births, deaths, internal migration arrivals and departures, and overseas arrivals and departures to population change in Jindabyne-Berridale over the two single year periods. From this it is evident that while net overseas migration makes the largest contribution to population change, the size of the internal migration flows is much larger. In total, there was just over 1,000 people moving either to Jindabyne-Berridale from other parts of Australia (472 people) or away from Jindabyne-Berridale to other parts of Australia (532 people) in 2017-18. This number was up from around 600 people moving in 2016-17. In contrast, the total size of the overseas migration flows in 2017-18 was less than 200 people.

The scale of internal migration flows is important as it indicates the number of people who would be either requiring or vacating accommodation in the area.

Just over 1,000 people either moved to Jindabyne-Berridale or departed to other parts of Australia in 2017-18. As a result, there was a substantial turnover of properties and impact on service demand.

Figure 15: Births and deaths, interstate arrivals and departures, and overseas arrivals and departures, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016-17 and 2017-18 (Source: ABS, (2019). Regional Population Growth, Australia (2017-18). Cat No 3218.0. Data accessed from ABS.Stat 16 April 2019)

4.5.3. Age profile of movers

While data from the Census refers to the more dated five-year period between 2011 and 2016, it does provide an age profile of movers. This data is available for the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 so is consistent with the area analysed in Sections 2.7.1 and 2.7.2. It includes people who were usual residents of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 in 2016, but had lived outside the SA2 in 2011, people who were usual residents of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 in 2011 but lived elsewhere in Australia in 2016, and people who were usual residents in both 2011 and 2016.

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This data shows that the peak ages for people to both move into, or out of Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 was 20-24 years and 25-29 years (Figure 16). While there is evidence of families moving out, there were larger numbers of key family age groups moving in to Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 by 2016. There was also a larger number of older people aged between 50-64 years moving into the area, compared with those moving out. This reflects the attractiveness of Jindabyne-Berridale for the early and pre-retiree age groups who may be pursuing lifestyle opportunities.

The data also shows that more older people aged 70 years and above moved out of the area, than moved in. This is a common pattern reflecting the desire to be closer to family and higher order health facilities as people reach older ages and possibly acquire frailties and illnesses.

Figure 16: Age profile of movers to, and from Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 between 2011-16, age at 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

The peak ages for people to move in and move out of Jindabyne-Berridale was for people in their twenties.

The net result of this internal movement to and from Jindabyne-Berridale and the rest of Australia over the five-year period 2011-16 was a net gain of 200 people. Almost half of this increase was among people aged 35-39 years (26%) and 40-44 years (21%) in 2016 (Figure 17). This is a key age group for parents with a further 42% of the net comprising children aged between 5-14 years. There was a net loss of people aged 20-24 years and those aged 30-34 years, as well as people aged over 65 years.

Almost half of the net gain due to internal migration was among people aged between 35 and 44 years, with a further 42% of the gain children between 5 and 14 years.

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Figure 17: Net change due to internal migration between 2011-2016, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, age at 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

In addition to these internal migration flows, there was a number of people who moved to Jindabyne-Berridale from overseas, as well as some who returned overseas. We have no data on those who left the area for overseas, but the age profile of those who moved in is shown in Figure 18. This profile shows that the same age groups, ranging from 20 through to mid-thirties are the key age groups for overseas in-movers. No doubt, this reflects people working in hospitality and tourism-related jobs.

Figure 18: Age profile of overseas in-movers between 2011-16, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, age at 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

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Almost 70% of people moving from overseas were aged between 20 and 34 years.

4.6. Comparing past and future growth

Population projections, produced by the previous Department of Planning and Environment, are available for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. While the main series suggests that the area will reach a population of 21,550 people by 2036, the high series indicates stronger growth with the population reaching 22,400 people by 2036. The client has requested use of the high series projection for this analysis.

These projections used a 2011 base so do not reflect recent data on population growth and decline. In addition, findings from the 2016 Census were not available at the time these projections were produced. New, updated projections will become available later in 2019 or 2020

4.6.1. Comparing projection series

A comparison between the low, main and high series projections is shown in Figure 19. It is important to note that the latest population estimate for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area in 2016 (20,558 people) was below all of the low (20,650 people), medium (20,750 people) and high series projections (20,850 people) for the same year..

Figure 19: Population projections, Snowy Monaro Regional Council, 2016-2036 (Source: ABS, (2019). Regional Population Growth, Australia (2017-18). Cat No 3218.0. Data accessed from ABS.Stat 16 April 2019 and NSW Department of Planning and Environment, (2016). NSW Population Projections LGAs high and low series https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-projections accessed 16 April, 2019.).

4.6.2. Projected demographic change

Change over each of the five-year periods between 2016 and 2036, for the low, main and high series is shown in 15. While the main series suggests that the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area population will increase by 800 people over the 20 years to 2036, the high series indicates population growth almost twice this (1,550 people).

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The actual population change estimated for the last three five-year periods (2001-06, 2006-11 and 2011-16) was 568 people, 378 people and 172 people respectively. A steadily declining trend is evident with the growth recorded in 2011-16 only 30% the amount of growth that occurred in 2001-06.

Actual growth recorded over the five years to 2016 is substantially lower than any of the series anticipated for the same period or projected for the next five-year period (Figure 20). However, actual growth to date for the 2016-18 period was 175 persons. If this amount of growth continued for the remaining three years, the total growth for the period would be 438 people. The high series not unreasonably projects population growth of 450 people for the 2016-21 period, followed by slowly reducing amounts of growth.

If growth recorded between 2016-18 continues, the high series projection of an increase of 450 people between 2016-21 is feasible.

A similar pattern is apparent when considering the rate of growth. The projected growth rate in 2016-21 represents between seven (low series) and almost 13 (high series) times the actual rate of growth recorded over the five years to 2016. However, if current growth trends continue, the rate of growth over the five-year period 2016-21 (2.1%) would be most similar to the projected high series rate of growth (2.2%) for the same period.

Figure 20: Estimated and projected population change, five-year periods, Snowy Monaro Regional Council, 2016-2036 Source: ABS, (2019). Regional Population Growth, Australia (2017-18). Cat No 3218.0. Data accessed from ABS.Stat 16 April 2019 and NSW Department of Planning and Environment, (2016). NSW Population Projections LGAs high and low series. https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-projections accessed 16 April, 2019. Notes: 1. ‘Actual’ represents change in estimates of the resident population produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The figure

for 2016-21 represents only two years growth (175 people between 2016-18). 2. Low series shows zero growth between 2026-31.

4.6.3. Scenarios of future growth

In order to anticipate possible trajectories of future growth for the Jindabyne area, population projections for the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 were prepared. These projections explored four possible scenarios of future growth, described below (Table 10). The modelling was done for the larger Jindabyne-Berridale area in order to be able to utilise available data from the ABS to specify the model.

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Table 10: Four Scenarios of future growth for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2

Scenario Description

Scenario 1 baseline a continuation of current patterns of growth

Scenario 2 extra accommodation reflecting an extension of urban growth in Jindabyne, East Jindabyne and Berridale, plus some additional rural residential

Scenario 3 extended season reflecting an evening out of the current seasonal peaks in tourist visitation with additional tourists in the current off-season. This would cause a related increase in non-resident workers (consideration might also be given to potential climate change impacts on the current ski-season peak)

Scenario 4 supercharged growth reflecting the settings from both previous scenarios, plus additional employment for residents associated with expansion to the Snowy Mountains Hydro scheme, increased migration as second homeowners become permanent residents and more people pursue a tree change lifestyle

Notes: 1. There are many more scenarios that could be explored. These are just a small selection of possible futures.

4.6.4. Size of future population

Unsurprisingly, the scenario projections result in different 2036 populations for the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2. There is very little difference in the projected population for 2021 under each of the scenarios, but the amount of growth under each scenario diverges from then on. By 2036, the population of Jindabyne-Berridale SA would be 8,200 under the baseline scenario, 8,370 under the extended season scenario, 8,600 under the extra accommodation scenario and 8,965 under the supercharged scenario. This is a difference of more than 760 people by 2036 between the smallest and the largest amount of total population growth. The four different trajectories can be seen in Figure 21.

Figure 21: Scenarios of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2046

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4.6.5. Amount of future population growth

Different amounts of population growth are projected under each of the scenarios (Figure 22). The smallest amount of growth is projected under the baseline scenario (growth of just over 1,100 people between 2016-2036), while the supercharged scenario indicates the largest amount of possible growth modelled in these scenarios (almost 1,900 people over the 20 years to 2036). Despite additional growth being expected under Scenario 3 extended season, this growth is constrained by lack of available accommodation for both workers and potential permanent residents. For this reason, the amount of growth projected under Scenario 3 is less than that projected under Scenario 2, which is based around the provision of additional accommodation options.

Figure 22: Projected population change under four scenarios of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2036

This is also shown in Figure 23 and Table 11, which compares the projected population change in each five-year period for each of the four scenarios. This indicates that future population growth, under the supercharged growth scenario could be as high as 546 people over a single five-year period.

Figure 23: Projected population change in each five-year period under four scenarios of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2036

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Projected average annual change over the 20 year projection horizon ranges from 38 people each year under the baseline scenario, to 43 people each year (Scenario 3 extended season), 51 people each year (Scenario 2 extra accommodation), through to 63 people each year under the supercharged growth scenario. In comparison, recent population growth in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 has averaged 49 people each year over the period 2006-2018.

Table 11: Projected average annual change under four scenarios of future growth for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2

Average annual change (no) Total change

2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2016-36

Sc1 baseline 54 64 59 50 1,133

Sc2 extra accom 62 80 87 75 1,522

Sc3 ext season 60 65 72 63 1,299

Sc4 supercharged

69 96 109 105 1,894

4.6.6. Age structure of the future population

Each of the four scenarios assumes a continuation of current age-specific propensities in migration in-flows and out-flows. Historically, internal in-migration flows have shown a strong peak for young people aged in their twenties and early thirties, some with dependent children, plus another group in the retirement ages between 55-75 years. Internal out-migration flows also peaked for people aged in their twenties, with a large number in their late teens as well. Flows to and from overseas have been concentrated in the 20-29 years age group, with the total number of arrivals almost exactly matching the number leaving. This means there has been minimal impact on the permanent population from overseas migration and only modest changes due to internal movement.

As a result, a considerable amount of future population growth reflects the ageing of the existing population. This can be seen by comparing the age structure in 2016 with the projected age structure in 2036 (Figure 24). Under this baseline scenario, most of the population growth is in the older age groups, with several of the younger age groups declining in population. The baseline scenario sees the number of children aged less than 15 years hardly change and their share of the total population decline from 18% in 2016, to 16% in 2036. Over the same period, the number of people aged 65 years and over is projected to grow by nearly 840 people, with their share of the population jumping from 12% in 2016, to 21% by 2036.

In contrast, under Scenario 4 supercharged growth, there is growth projected in most five-year age cohorts (Figure 25). There is still a lot of growth among the older age groups, with more than half (57%) of the total projected change occurring among people aged 60 years or more. This reflects the increased accommodation options and attractiveness of the area for retirees under Scenario 4.

Results from each of the four scenarios are provided in Appendix 1.

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Figure 24: Population age structure, baseline scenario of future growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 and 2036

Figure 25: Population age structure, Scenario 4 supercharged growth, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 and 2036

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4.7. Tourist populations

In order to plan for a sustainable tourist industry and to manage impacts on the local community, monitoring the number of visitors and their patterns of visitation is essential. The following sections detail tourism statistics relevant for the Jindabyne area. Visitors are disaggregated into domestic, international and day tripper visitors.

The most recent data is provided for the Snowy Mountains Tourism Region, which consists of the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area plus the adjoining Snowy Rivers Council area encompassing Tumut and surrounds on the western side of the Australian Alps. Where available, tourism data for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area has been included.

4.7.1. Domestic and day trip visitors

In the year ending June 2018, the Snowy Mountains Tourism Region was the destination for 992,000 domestic visitors, up from 883,000 the previous year. This number of visitors converted to 3,428,000 visitor nights in 2017-18 leading to the Region ranking at number 30 for domestic visitor nights among tourism regions in Australia.

Regional expenditure from domestic visitors in 2017-18 was estimated at $745m, up from $577m in the previous year.

The number of domestic visitors has climbed quickly since 2016, increasing by 293,000 visitors or more than 40% over the five-year period since 2014 (Figure 26). Over this same period, the proportion visiting for holiday purposes increased from 70% in 2014 to 72% in 2018.

Figure 26: Estimated number of domestic visitors, Snowy Mountains Tourism Region, 2014-18 Source: National Visitor Survey Results, Tourism Research Australia, updated December 2018 Notes: 1. Numbers are in ‘000s. 2. Years are ending June.

The number of domestic visitors to the Snowy Mountains tourism region has risen by 293,000 visitors or more than 40% over the five-year period since 2014.

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Over the same five-year period, the estimated number of day-trippers reached a peak of 719,000 people in 2016 before dropping to 517,000 in 2018. This represented a decline of 202,000 people or 28% from the peak in 2016 (Figure 27).

Figure 27: Estimated number of day trippers, Snowy Mountains Tourism Region, 2014-18 Source: National Visitor Survey Results, Tourism Research Australia, updated December 2018 Notes: 1. Numbers are in ‘000s. 2. Years are ending June.

Limited information is available for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council and relates to an earlier period (end of June 2017). This indicates that 81% of domestic visitors and 62% of day trippers were in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. If this share was maintained in 2018, there would have been 806,000 domestic visitors and 318,000 day trippers visiting the area. This equates to 2,847m visitor nights in 2017-18 with an average of 3.5 nights per stay.

Domestic overnight visitors spent an estimated $497m in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area in 2017, with an average of $756 spent per trip, or $221 per night. While the majority of visitors were holidaying, 67,000 were visiting friends and family, and 45,000 were domestic business visitors.

The largest share of visitors were friends and/or relatives travelling together (37%), followed by family groups (27%), couples (22%) and people on their own (14%). The main type of accommodation utilised by domestic visitors was ‘Other’ (including B&Bs and AirBnB properties – 41%), followed by hotels (32%), home of friend or relative (16%) and commercial camping or caravan park (11%).

4.7.2. International visitors

In the year ending June 2018, the Snowy Mountains Tourism Region was the destination for 25,000 international visitors, up from 18,000 the previous year. This number of visitors converted to 324,000 visitor nights in 2017-18 leading to the Region ranking at number 49 for international visitor nights among tourism regions in Australia.

Regional expenditure from international visitors in 2017-18 was estimated at $20m with the average regional spend for each international visitor totalling $779 or an average of $59 per night.

For the year ending June 2017, there was an estimated 15,000 international visitors to the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. This equated to 213,000 visitor nights with an average stay of 14 nights.

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The majority of international visitors were visiting for holiday purposes and were primarily unaccompanied individuals. The main accommodation type for international visitors was ‘Other’ consisting of privately-owned accommodation, B&Bs, AirBnB properties and similar, which accounted for 71% of all international tourist nights in 2017 (Figure 28).

Figure 28: International and domestic visitor nights by accommodation type, Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2017 Source: Tourism Research Australia, (2017). Snowy Monaro Regional (A), Local Government Profile. Accessed 17 April, 2019 Notes: 1. Year ending June. Profiles are only prepared for Local Government Areas with adequate International Visitor Survey and

National Visitor Survey samples to produce robust results. Further, data are averaged over four years, which minimises the impact of variability in estimates from year to year, and provides for more robust volume estimates.

A comparison of international and domestic visitors use of different accommodation types shows some distinct patterns. International visitors are more likely to use ‘Other’ types of accommodation, which accounted for seven out of every ten international visitor nights in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area in 2017. This compares with only four out of every ten domestic visitor nights, despite the ‘Other’ type of accommodation accounting for the largest share of domestic visitor nights.

Only 9% of international visitor nights were spent in Hotels or similar accommodation; less than one-third the proportion of domestic visitor nights spent in this type of accommodation (32%). In contrast, staying in ‘Camping/caravan parks’ was five times as significant for domestic visitors (11%) compared with international visitor nights (2%).

While it is difficult to pinpoint data from previous periods, the ‘Other’ category was not listed among the top three accommodation types for international and domestic visitors to Snowy Mountains tourism region in 2015. At that time, Hotels or similar accommodation accounted for the largest share of visitor nights, closely followed by staying at friends or relatives’ properties. This suggests that the rise of the private accommodation option has been relatively recent, in line with the expansion of AirBnB in other locations.

4.7.3. Seasonality

Literature on seasonality

Seasonality is considered to have two dimensions; natural and institutional, each operating at both the origin and destination. Natural or physical seasonality reflects climate, weather and seasons of the

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year and is particularly important regarding enough snowfall in low altitude locations. Institutional seasonality refers to public and school holidays, availability of leisure time and travel habits, and the hosting of events.

Research suggests that the ski industry “is distinct from alpine tourism because of its seasonal, spatial and temporal concentration” (Bicknell and McManus, 2006 quoted in Pegg, Patterson and Gariddo, 2012). Historically, a number of Australian alpine resorts have closed during the summer months. Challenges include the lack of use of infrastructure, accommodation vacancies and the necessity to reduce the workforce. Consequences may include difficulties in recruiting new staff at the beginning of each season given this seasonal cycle. Young overseas holiday makers are a very important source of this labour, as are those who follow snow employment in different seasons. In contrast, local residents may not be willing to participate in involuntary unemployment during the off-season, instead seeking more security and the opportunity for career progression.

In contrast, during the high season months there is a large increase in the number of visitors resulting in potential over use of infrastructure and heavy demand on services. This can be seen most clearly in the demand for accommodation and is expressed below in terms of occupancy rates. Both visitors and locals ‘pay the price’ for these peaks, with the term ‘social cost of the peaking problem’ being coined to describe the situation. Others argue that the off-season is vital for residents to recover from being overwhelmed during the peak.

With recent climate change research indicating that natural snow cover will become inadequate in 65% of Australian Alpine region sites by 2020 (Pegg, Patterson and Gariddo, 2012), there is an imperative for low altitude ski resorts to pay more attention to summer-based activities. This shift appears to already be underway overseas in for example, Italy and Switzerland where the focus has been on attracting more customers in shoulder and off-peak seasons. Similarly, the strategy employed in North American resorts has involved promotion of meetings and conferences plus attraction of non-skiers for summer recreation activities.

In a recent study of managers of hospitality businesses in the Jindabyne region, including Perisher and Thredbo, many indicated that they had already begun to operate year around as the summer trade had increased (Pegg, Patterson and Gariddo, 2012). Businesses have begun to offer different products and services and to target specific groups. For example, Jindabyne stages community and fishing-related events focused on the Lake.

One of the issues identified was the difficulty of meeting staffing requirements during increased operations in the summer months. Summer visitation rates remain volatile and so businesses are using casual staff to manage costs. This will also have an impact on accommodation requirements, preventing longer term leases and focussing most of the need on short-term lets. On the other hand, the opportunity for year-round employment may be more attractive to local residents, or to encourage employees to become permanent residents.

Data on seasonality

The Australian Bureau of Statistics survey of tourist accommodation has been delivered on an annual basis since July 2013. The survey is conducted in establishments providing predominantly short-term non-residential accommodation. Guests generally stay for less than two months. Some of these establishments provide long-term residential accommodation, however, this is not separately identified.

Establishments included in the survey include hotels and resorts with 15 or more rooms; motels, private hotels and guest houses with 15 or more rooms; and serviced apartments with 15 or more units. As such, smaller establishments with less than 15 rooms, or small privately owned establishments are not included. It is also probable that owners of more than 15 rooms of B&B or AirB&B establishments are not surveyed.

Despite omissions of accommodation establishments of interest, the survey of tourist accommodation provides some useful indications of seasonality through the reporting of room occupancy rates. This data is available for the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 on a quarterly basis from April 2013 to June 2016. The data clearly shows that the peak period for room occupation in Jindabyne-Berridale is from July through to September, which has average room occupancy rates of 66% over the three-year period data is available for. In contrast, the period from October through to June had an average room occupancy rate of 22% (Figure 29).

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Figure 29: Room occupancy, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, April 2013-June 2016 (Source: ABS, (various issues). Tourist accommodation, Australia. Cat. No. 8635.0 small area data)

In the last two years of the available data, September shows a lower level of occupancy than does July and August. It may be appropriate to classify both September and June as the shoulder season when occupancy rates are somewhat higher than the remainder of the year.

The only other noteworthy pattern is a small increase in occupancy evident in January. This summer peak appears to be gaining strength and extending a little into February and March given the pattern evident in 2016. More recent data is required to determine whether this represents a sustainable increase in summer visitation numbers.

4.7.4. Census snapshot of visitors

The Census provides us with a snapshot of visitors to the area. Very few characteristics are provided for this group of the population however, age, home location for domestic visitors and whether they were counted in private or non-private dwellings is available.

Number of visitors

In 2016 in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, there was a total of 14,540 visitors counted at Census time. Over 13,500 of these visitors or 93% were reported in the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2. While one-quarter of the visitors in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 were found in the Greater Jindabyne urban area used in this report, many others were located in resort and other areas (Table 12). This underscores the significance of the area for tourism purposes and the vital role of Jindabyne as the key centre servicing this activity. The distribution of visitors at Census time, may also provide an indication of the amount of visitor accommodation demand that is currently being met in the Greater Jindabyne urban area.

A substantial number of visitors were found in the resort areas of Thredbo Village, Perisher Village and Crackenback. A large number were also reported in the large geographic area covering the Kosciusko National Park and stretching from the NSW-Victorian border in the south to the park boundary in the north (but not including Thredbo and Perisher, which are reported separately). This area includes Guthega, Charlotte's Pass, selected other chalets, huts and camping grounds

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Table 12: Visitors counted at Census date (August), selected areas, 2016

From elsewhere in Australia

From overseas Total visitors

Snowy Monaro LGA 13,777 763 14,540


12,855 675 13,530

Greater Jindabyne urban area

3,221 296 3,517

Thredbo 3,493 85 3,578

Kosciusko adjoining area

1,802 58 1,860

Perisher 2,022 93 2,115

Crackenback 687 41 728

Rural area east of Jindabyne

387 33 420

Berridale 186 18 204

Rural area south of Jindabyne

126 7 133

Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing, Table Builder Data accessed 29 Mayl 2019 Notes: 1. Total of areas will not add as not all areas in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area (LGA) have been included. Note also

that total for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 includes all areas listed plus others. 2. Names are unofficial and represent rough geographic locations only.

4.7.5. Greater Jindabyne urban area

In 2016, there was a total of 2,604 usual residents counted in the Greater Jindabyne urban area (consisting of Jindabyne urban centre, East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate localities). In addition to this number, there were 3,503 visitors counted in the area. Adding these two populations together provides us with a total population estimate for the population of the Greater Jindabyne urban area in early August 2016 of 6,107 people.

Of the 3,500 visitor population, the 3,208 domestic visitors accounted for the largest share (92%), outnumbering the number of usual residents (2,600 people). Domestic visitors represented 53% of the total count of people in the Greater Jindabyne urban centre at the time of the 2016 Census. Almost three-quarters (71%) of these domestic visitors were from New South Wales, with a further 16% from Queensland. Only relatively small numbers came from Victoria or the ACT.

The domestic visitor population in August has comprised the largest share of the total population counted in the Greater Jindabyne urban centre over the last three Censuses. Despite the number of domestic visitors being slightly lower in 2011 than five years earlier, the number in 2016 jumped by 497 people or an increase of 18% on the 2011 level. In contrast, the number of usual residents has steadily increased, but growth has been modest. Between 2011 and 2016, the number of usual residents grew by 89 people or 3.5%. In comparison, while the number of overseas visitors is small, with growth between 2011-16 of 96 people, the rate of growth is rapid (up 48%) (Figure 30).

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Figure 30: Usual residents, domestic and overseas visitors, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016 Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019. Notes: 1. The difference between the number of usual residents plus domestic and overseas visitors and the published enumerated

population is due to a number of usual residents who have been imputed as living in the area. In 2016, this number was 197.

Age of visitors

The age of visitors is only available for the 1,545 visitors counted in visitor only households in private dwellings. This is because people counted in non-private dwellings are enumerated on personal forms that do not collect this information.

The age profile of these visitors is overwhelmingly young with one-third aged in their twenties. The largest age group was the 288 people aged between 20-24 years. This dominance of young people in their twenties was evident for both domestic and overseas visitors. Only 21% of people counted in visitor households were aged 50 years or more (Figure 31).

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Figure 31: Occupants of visitor only households by age, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

Type of dwelling occupied by visitors

In 2016, there were 3,517 visitors counted in the Greater Jindabyne urban area, with 88% counted in Jindabyne urban centre. Of the total number of visitors, 55% or 1,933 people were counted in occupied private dwellings, while the remaining 1,584 visitors were counted in non-private dwellings (45%).

This pattern has changed little over the decade to 2016. While the total number of visitors has grown slightly as noted above, the split between private and non-private dwellings has remained roughly the same with around 55% in private dwellings (Figure 32).

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Figure 32: Domestic & overseas visitors by dwelling type, Greater Jindabyne urban area, 2006, 2011 & 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

4.7.6. Visitor forecasts

Experimental forecasts of the future number of visitors have been prepared to assist with strategic planning for the Jindabyne region. As Jindabyne provides services, including accommodation, for a visitor population beyond those undertaking activities in Jindabyne itself, the visitor forecasts have been prepared for the larger Jindabyne-Berridale SA2.

Four different scenarios have been prepared to test different approaches. The scenarios that yielded the lowest and the highest forecast number of visitors have been reported here. This provides two sets of forecasts that might be thought of as providing a lower and an upper bound. Users are recommended to use the range provided by these upper and lower bounds.

Initially, forecasts were produced for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. The first scenario was produced by maintaining the 2017 share of NSW visitor nights and applying this share to the 2017 Tourism Research Australia forecast visitor nights for NSW. The second scenario, reflecting an expansion of accommodation options and an extension of the tourism season, simply added 10% to each annual estimate of visitor nights.

Subsequently, the share of visitor nights in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 was derived. As the number of visitor nights in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 is not available, a monthly share of Snowy Monaro Regional Council area's occupied tourist accommodation was derived from the ABS Survey of Tourist Accommodation. These shares were applied to the forecast visitor nights for Snowy Monaro Regional Council to obtain a forecast for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2.

While this method yields a total forecast number of visitors for each year, a more useful forecast requires monthly estimates. These were obtained by applying the seasonality pattern used for the total population calculations (see Sections 4.9.3 and 4.9.5 below). The total number of visitors forecast for each month can then be converted to a daily average, however, it is unlikely that the number of visitors would be spread evenly over the month. Visitors are known to be present in the largest numbers on weekends, and during events and holiday periods. To reflect this 'clumping', monthly visitor number were divided by eight to determine a peak daily visitor number for each month (based on four two-day weekends). This was compared with the number of visitors in Jindabyne-Berridale at the 2016 Census and found to be comparable given the likely substantial under-estimate of visitors at Census time.

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Full data for each of the scenarios are provided in Appendix 2. Table 13 shows the lower and upper bounds, with the maximum peak daily visitor number (obtained in July/August) reported.

Table 13: Peak daily forecast visitors, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2

Lower bound Upper bound

2016 Census 13,530

2016-17 20,751 22,826

2017-18 21,936 24,129

2018-19 22,987 25,286

2019-20 24,032 26,436

2020-21 25,034 27,537

2021-22 26,018 28,620

2022-23 27,034 29,738

2023-24 28,068 30,875

2024-25 29,144 32,058

2025-26 30,258 33,284

2026-27 31,419 34,561

2027-28 32,630 35,893

2028-29 33,477 36,825

2029-30 34,533 37,986

2030-31 35,589 39,148

2031-32 36,645 40,309

2032-33 37,701 41,471

2033-34 38,756 42,632

2034-35 39,812 43,793

2035-36 40,868 44,955

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4.8. Temporary populations

In addition to the number of visitors counted in the area at any part of the year, there are other people temporarily located in the area. These may include casual workers who only work for part of the year when visitor numbers and seasonal employment needs are high or second homeowners who may visit on a regular or extended basis.

4.8.1. Non-resident workers

Casual or temporary workers may be short-term residents staying a few days, a few weeks or a few months. Once they stay for 6 months they should, in theory, be captured in the estimates of the resident population. Other workers may work in the area but normally reside elsewhere. The Census provides data on this latter group, termed non-resident workers, for the single point in time of August 2016. This data is available for the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2.

In August 2016, there were 4,537 people counted who reported working in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2. Just over two-thirds of these workers also lived in the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, with a further 88 people usually resident in Cooma and 48 people usually resident in the Cooma Region. It can be safely assumed that the 136 people living in the two areas immediately adjoining Jindabyne-Berridale would travel home and use their own accommodation.

In contrast, the approximately 1,380 people who were working in Jindabyne-Berridale but who were usually resident elsewhere outside the immediate area, would require accommodation. In order to minimise their journey to work, most of these non-resident workers probably lived in the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 if suitable accommodation could be found. (The previous Snowy River Shire Council’s Social Plan 2013-16 reported the Thredbo and Perisher ski resorts hired approximately 970 young adults in the 2012 winter season. Further, the report mentioned that real estate agents reported housing over 1,200 young people aged less than 25 years during the same winter season.)

Census data tells us that 809 of Jindabyne-Berridale’s non-resident workers (or 59%) were counted in occupied private dwellings. Meanwhile, 571 of Jindabyne-Berridale’s non-resident workers (or 41%) were counted in non-private dwellings (Figure 33). Further, 411 workers (or 30%) reported that they were living in a non-private dwelling as members of staff of the accommodation (either as owner, proprietor or staff), with another 128 workers (or 9%) indicating they were guests. The remaining 32 people said they were in a non-private dwelling but did not report their status.

Figure 33: Dwelling type and residential status in non-private dwellings, Non-resident workers in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 (Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019).

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The sizeable number of non-resident workers in Jindabyne-Berridale (approximately 1,380 people) would be having an impact on availability of both the private and non-private dwelling stock. Additionally, at least at Census time in early August 2016, these temporary workers who did not live close by, should be considered to be part of the Jindabyne-Berridale total population.

4.8.2. Second home owners

Literature on second homes

Second homeowners can legitimately be considered to be part of the population. They may visit their second home regularly (for example, every weekend during the snow season), may take extended breaks several times a year (for example, a fortnight during the snow season and a month over the summer), may let their property to friends and family on a regular basis when it is not in use, or they may visit their second home on an irregular, short-term basis. In many of these situations, the occupants of the second home are using local infrastructure and services and thus, might be considered as part of the population.

Research has found that second homeowners may exert an influence on aspects of the community like the facilities, services, and the sociocultural nature of the community. The attitudes and perceptions of second homeowners were found to be as important in determining future community directions as permanent resident perceptions (Girard and Gartner, 1993).

Second homeowners were found to identify community facilities and services like health care and medical services, recreational areas, festivals and street and road improvements as more valuable than additional accommodation options, restaurants or shopping facilities. Night time entertainment was one of the least-preferred options (Girard and Gartner, 1993). This echoed earlier research findings that second homeowners were more concerned with the physical attractiveness of their surrounds than any other group of factors.

These views in part reflect the average age of second homeowners and the particular views they might hold. Rapid growth in second home communities can add additional strain particularly in relation to the quality and quantity of services provided to seasonal as well as permanent residents. During these periods of strong growth, pressure on community services takes place that can cause quality of life perceptions to decline.

Priddle and Kreutzwiser (1977) identified particular community services such as road development, repair and maintenance, police and fire protection, and environmental stress as most vulnerable during times of rapid development.

More recent research outlined the stages in second home tourism development in Denmark (Tress, 2002). Second-home tourism began in the late 1900s, when recreation in the country, particularly along the coast, began to be valued. These second homes were generally small cabins and were owned by richer members of the community from the 1920s and 1930s. During the 1950-1970 period there was strong growth in the number of second homes. After changes in the tourist industry in the 1960s and 1970s, the second homes began to be let as holiday homes for both domestic and foreign tourists. While more recently, the development of second homes has been largely restricted to coastal areas, from the 1980s, mainly German vacationers began to make commercial use of second homes. In the mid-1990s, the peak of commercial second-home overnight stays was reached with about 17 million overnight stays per year. Since then, commercial second-home tourism has slowly decreased. Yet today, more than 218,000 second homes exist.

There are some lessons for Jindabyne in the various phases of second home tourism experienced in Denmark. It may be that there is considerable potential for further second homes to be acquired and put into the short-term accommodation market, if commercial providers do not respond to increased demand. Current patterns of tourist accommodation in Jindabyne indicate that there is already a substantial private accommodation market. If second homes are to have higher occupancy rates, this then translates to additional population requiring services.

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4.8.3. Data on second homes

While the number of nights spent in second homes is reported for states, capital cities and regional areas (as a whole) by Tourism Research Australia, there is no data available for Jindabyne or even the Snowy Mountains. The only indicator available to use is the number and proportion of all dwellings that were unoccupied at the time of the Census.

Problems with using the total number of unoccupied dwellings as a proxy measure of second homes include; the dwelling might be unoccupied due to being newly constructed and not yet occupied, might be under renovation, or the occupants were away from home or could not be contacted at the time of the Census.

Similarly, second homeowners may have been occupying their second home at the time of the Census and indicated their status as a visitor-only household. Therefore, they would be indistinguishable from other visitors.

Nonetheless, a number of studies of second homes have used the proportion of private dwellings that were unoccupied as an indicator. If the proportion is found to be high relative to other areas, it suggests that reasons of new construction, renovation and absence of the owners have been substantially added to by real second homes that were not occupied at the time of the Census.

In Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, there were 1,088 unoccupied dwellings at the time of the 2016 Census. This equated to 23% of private dwelling stock being unoccupied (Table 14). In a ranking of all NSW SA2s with more than 50 dwellings, Jindabyne-Berridale ranked at number 26 for the share of private dwellings that were unoccupied. Bombala SA2 ranked at number 28 with 290 unoccupied dwellings representing 22% of private dwelling stock in the area. The Cooma Region, ranked at number 14 and was the local area with the highest share of unoccupied dwellings with the 550 vacant dwellings representing 28% of private dwelling stock.

The urban centre of Jindabyne, with 502 vacant dwellings representing 31% of private dwelling stock ranked at number 12 among NSW urban centres with populations between 1,000-4,999 people. This is a very large share, almost one-third of all private dwellings, and was only surpassed by well-known coastal holiday locations like Callala Bay (46%), Vincentia (43%), Tuross Head (38%) and Bermagui (35%).

Table 14: Number of dwellings by type, Jindabyne selected areas, 2016

Area Non-private dwellings

Occupied private

dwellings

Unoccupied private

dwellings

Total private dwellings

% of private dwellings

unoccupied

Jindabyne-Berridale (SA2)

397 3,625 1,088 4,713 23%

Jindabyne (UCL) 42 2,116 502 1,618 31%

East Jindabyne (L) 10 247 64 311 21%

Lakewood Estate (L) 0 86 20 106 19%

Greater Jindabyne urban area1

52 2,449 586 2,035 29%

Source: ABS, (2017). Census of Population and Housing. Table Builder accessed 15 April, 2019. Notes: 1. The Greater Jindabyne urban area is made up of the Jindabyne urban centre, plus the East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate

localities.

If we were to discount the number of unoccupied dwellings by 15% to account for new construction, renovation and absence of owners, we might determine that approximately 900 dwellings in the

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Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 were second homes. In peak season, if 50% were occupied by two people, that would mean an additional 900 people should be added to the population.

4.8.4. Privately rented accommodation

It is difficult to quantify the amount of privately rented accommodation available in the Jindabyne area. Some properties are listed across multiple websites, thus preventing a simple count of properties. Other properties are not listed electronically but are available through a local, short-term holiday booking agent.

Data on Airbnb properties has been provided via the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment as extracted from AirDNA and processed by CIE. This data indicates that in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area there was a total of 977 properties that had an Airbnb booking over the 12 months to October 2018. Data is not available at a lower geographic level or for any earlier period.

Of the 977 properties that had an Airbnb booking, more than two-thirds (69%) were booked for between 1 and 90 days, 26% were booked for between 90 and 180 days, and 5% were booked for over 180 days. The vast majority of bookings (89%) were for the entire home meaning that larger numbers of people could potentially have been accommodated.

It is important to recognise that this data does not cover all available private accommodation. The property being booked may have included tents, tee pees or boats as well as conventional residential accommodation. Therefore, any estimate of the additional population staying in this accommodation must be heavily discounted to reflect periods when the properties were not rented or not available. Additionally, the number of people accommodated is unknown.

4.9. Conceptualising and estimating total populations

4.9.1. Introduction

There are several types of areas where a focus on the usually resident population is insufficient. Such areas might include:

▪ mining communities, which see an influx of workers on a short-term basis but for extended periods;

▪ agricultural communities, which see an influx of casual workers usually on a seasonal basis; and

▪ tourist communities, which see an influx of tourists and workers for either most of the year or on a seasonal basis.

In each of these examples, the usually resident population estimates are inadequate for determining the need for infrastructure and services. The exact type of infrastructure and services will depend on the particular circumstances. For example, in mining communities the mining company is often responsible for accommodating and feeding workers and thus, infrastructure usage and demand for goods and services is minimal.

However, in an area like Jindabyne, the population will swell during peak tourist times causing potential overload of infrastructure and increased pressure on services. Of most interest here is the demand for accommodation, although estimates of the total population are likely to be useful for other purposes.

The following sections set out the concept of, and component parts of the total population. An estimate is suggested but must be considered indicative only.

4.9.2. Components of the total population

The base for the total population estimate is the usually resident population. As defined by ABS, this refers to people who are usually resident in an area for six or more months. As such, this category could include ‘temporary’ workers who live in the area for extended (more than six month) periods.

In practice, such people, especially when they are young, are unlikely to be included in estimates of the resident population. Inclusion in the estimates result from behaviours including visiting a local doctor and registering their address for payment of Medicare benefits (many young people do not visit

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doctors regularly, and many people now receive their Medicare benefits directly into a bank account) and registering their address for the purposes of electoral enrolment (young people are the least likely to be registered and if already registered, may leave their address as previously listed, often with their parents).

The other largest component of the total population comprises visitors. While estimates of the number of visitors are available from Tourism Research Australia, these are not available at the preferred level of geography. Nor is there sufficient detail to determine how many visitors there are at particular points in the year. Data available from the Census provides a single point in time count, once every five years. This data has the advantage of being available at a variety of geographical scales.

Estimates of the size of the temporary workforce are not readily available. However, the Census provides a single point in time estimate of non-resident workers.

The final component of the total population is a special category of visitors. These are people who own second homes in the area. As such, they do not generate demand for accommodation as they have the ability to use their own home when visiting. There is no directly relevant estimate of the numbers involved currently available (note: The Snowy Monaro Regional Council has been requested to provide some information. This section may be updated when that is received.)

4.9.3. Seasonal variation of the total population

Especially in a location like Jindabyne, seasonality will have a strong impact on the size of the total population. Estimates of the usually resident population are only available at a single point each year, when in reality, the population will fluctuate over time.

Occupancy rates at larger commercial establishments can give a guide to the timing of seasonal variations. Using room occupancy rates, estimates of the visitor population at key points in the year can be derived. These points might include winter peak (July and August), summer peak (January), shoulder season (June and September) and low season (February-May and October-December). Interviews were conducted with a range of accommodation providers and real estate agents to refine the seasonal pattern obtained from the Survey of Tourist Accommodation data. This was done as indications are that tourists are increasingly visiting the area outside of the key snow season period. The seasonal pattern was then further refined to reflect assumed further changes to an extended seasonal distribution of visitation.

Assumptions can be made that the size of the temporary workforce is in line with these seasonal variations.

4.9.4. Conceptual diagram of the total population

Figure 34 below seeks to conceptualise the total population by component and season. Despite not requiring accommodation from the short-term market, a second home population has been included. While this component may legitimately be included in a total population estimate used for specific purposes, it should also be remembered that many second homeowners make their home available for friends and family when they do not require it. As such, it might be assumed that there is a constant, albeit small, population in second homes. It might also be assumed that the second home population is already included in visitor/visitor night estimates. For this reason, the second population estimates have been prepared separately.

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Figure 34: Conceptual diagram of total population

4.9.5. Experimental estimate of the total population

Using available data, an estimate of the total population of the Snowy Mountain Regional Council has been prepared. This estimate is based on data available for June 2016 and includes all components shown in Figure 30 with the exception of the second home population.

The population of usual residents is obtained from the ABS Estimate of the Resident Population. This forms the base of the total population estimate and is assumed to remain constant throughout the year.

The approach to calculate monthly estimates of other components relies on measures of seasonality as indicated by room occupancy rates, obtained from the ABS Survey of Tourist Accommodation. Average monthly room occupancy rates for the period April 2013 to June 2016 were calculated. The only available data is at the SA2 level, hence the data for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 was used as the basis of the rates. This yielded a seasonal pattern, with a separate measure for each month, which was then applied to the total number of domestic and overseas visitors to arrive at a monthly estimate of the number of visitors in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area. This initial derived pattern of seasonality was subsequently adjusted based on feedback obtained from Jindabyne accommodation providers and tourism operators during fieldwork in May 2019.

The measure of non-resident workers obtained from the Census reflects people employed at a place of work in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area but usually resident outside that area. In 2016, this number was 1,688 people. Initially, it was assumed that the same seasonal pattern should be applied to non-resident workers, with this pattern used to calculate monthly estimates. However, an alternate seasonal distribution was subsequently developed to better represent the likely clumping of non-resident workers into the peak seasons. This clumping effect for non-resident workers was confirmed by the accommodation providers, tourism operators and real estate proprietors who were interviewed during fieldwork.

These estimates of the total population represent a maximum monthly figure. Visitors are not likely to stay for a whole month; in fact, the average length of stay for a domestic visitor was 3.5 nights, while for overseas visitors it was 14 nights. Thus, the monthly figures should be interpreted as a possible total figure or the peak cumulative population that may have been achieved during that month. In reality, there are peaks and troughs in the monthly visitation pattern, with the number of visitors likely peaking on weekends and in response to snowfalls, special events and holiday periods.

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In order to derive a more useful measure, each month was then divided by the number of weekend days to determine the peak daily number of visitors possible for each month. The peak days for visitors in each month are most likely to occur on weekends or holidays or to be associated with special events. Using a weekend figure provides the upper limit of the average daily visitor numbers.

These numbers were then used to calculate total population estimates as shown in Figure 35. Each monthly figure should be interpreted as the peak daily average number of people who were in the area.

Figure 35: Estimates of average daily peak populations by month, Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2016 Notes: Experimental estimates. Should be considered indicative only. See text for a description of the method used and the many limitations.

A similar approach was used to derive an experimental estimate for the total population of Jindabyne-Berridale SA2. A minor amendment to the approach was required as no estimate of visitor nights was available for this level of geography. Accordingly, the proportion of room nights occupied in Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 as a share of the total for Snowy Monaro Regional Council was calculated. This data was available on a monthly basis thus permitting a derivation of monthly proportions that were used to determine Jindabyne-Berridale’s share of visitor nights. (Data used was from ABS, Tourist Accommodation, Australia 2015-16, Catalogue Number 8635.0, NSW small area data.)

The resulting total population estimates for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 are shown in Figure 36. Using a rough approximation based on distributions at the 2016 Census, it is estimated that the 2016 total population of the Go Jindabyne Study Area (approximated by an aggregation of SA1s) was 8,564 people. This total population was comprised of approximately 2,907 usual residents, 4,622 visitors and 1,035 non-resident workers. Note that these are rough estimates and should be considered indicative only.

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Figure 36: Estimates of average daily peak populations by month, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 Notes: 1. Experimental estimates. Should be considered indicative only. See text for a description of the method used and the many

limitations.

Each home was assumed to be occupied by 2.5 people for different periods of each month, according to a pattern of seasonal variation. This pattern was informed by consultation with real estate agents who often manage second homes as private rental properties. Hence, they are in a good position to know when the properties are reserved for the owners' own use.

Second homeowners (or their family or friends) were assumed to spend five days in the area in January, two days (or one weekend) each month from February to May, four days (two weekends) in June, eleven days (one week plus a four-day weekend) in each of July and August, two days during September and three days spread over the October to December period. This yielded the estimated number of occupied second home dwellings and average daily populations shown in Figure 37. Note that the occupancy of second homes may not be related to the tourist accommodation seasonal pattern and it is possible that the length of stay is different to that assumed, especially during holiday periods.

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Figure 37: Estimated number of occupied second homes and average daily peak populations, Snowy Monaro Regional Council area, 2016 Notes: 1. Experimental estimates. Should be considered indicative only. See text for a description of the method used.

A similar approach was used to derive estimates of the second home population for Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 (Figure 38). Unoccupied dwellings were discounted by 10% and the same assumptions concerning number of days that the second homes were occupied each month were used.

Peak average daily second home populations were estimated as 150 persons during July and August. During the off-season, second home populations were estimated to be as low as three or four people.

It is important to identify the number of second homes and the population associated with them, separate to the general tourist population. Second homeowners are likely to have a different level of engagement with the community, will probably be more interested in future planning for the area and will return to the area more often than most other domestic or overseas visitors.

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Figure 38: Estimated number of occupied second homes and average daily peak populations, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016 Notes: 1. Experimental estimates. Should be considered indicative only. See text for a description of the method used.

Limitations of this approach to estimating the total population are many. Seasonal patterns may vary from year to year. This is especially so when snowfalls come early, late or not at all. Seasonal patterns are also impacted by the events calendar and increasing promotion of summer recreation activities. Hence, using the seasonal pattern of room occupancy to determine the monthly number of visitors/visitor nights is bound to be problematic.

Very little is known about the changing number of non-resident workers in the area over the course of a year. While the estimate obtained from the Census has been used for the number of workers present in August, numbers for other months have been modelled. While reference has been made to the same seasonal pattern that applies to room occupancy, discounts have been applied to minimise the number of non-resident workers during the off-season. Anecdotal information suggests that difficulties in obtaining casual staff in the off-ski season results in accommodation proprietors and managers doing additional tasks themselves.

4.9.6. Experimental forecasts of the future total population

By combining the population projections and visitor forecasts prepared for this project, a forecast of the future total population can be obtained. This forecast does not take into account the number of second home owners. However, the possible variability around the future number of usual residents and the potential fluctuations in the future number of visitors are larger than the likely number of second home owners.

These forecasts of the future total population should be treated with caution and used as indications of the potential total population. They are based on what is currently known and reflect a continuation of specific relationships; all things that will likely change in the future. Importantly, the visitor forecasts are based on Tourism Research Australia's forecast of future visitor numbers, which appears optimistic.

The first forecast of the total population combines the baseline scenario of future population with the lower bound visitor forecast. This should be considered the lowest future total population forecast based on a positive future view. Severe disruptions to the future, such as increasing climate change impacts, have not been modelled here. The second forecast of the total population is a combination of

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the supercharged scenario of future population with the higher bound visitor forecast. This should be considered the highest future total population forecast based on an expansion of tourism activity and consequent substantial growth in visitor numbers. These two forecasts are summarised in Table 15.

Table 15: Experimental forecasts of the future total population, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2016-2036

Lower Bound

Upper bound

2016 January February March April May June July August September October November December

Usual residents 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071

Visitors 10,375 7,263 8,300 6,225 5,188 10,375 20,751 20,751 16,601 4,150 4,150 6,225

Non resident workers 119 71 71 71 24 547 1,380 1,380 857 71 71 95

Total population 17,565 14,405 15,443 13,368 12,282 17,994 29,202 29,202 24,528 11,293 11,293 13,391


Usual residents 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383 7,383

Visitors 12,517 8,762 10,014 7,510 6,259 12,517 25,034 25,034 20,027 5,007 5,007 7,510

Non resident workers 144 86 86 86 29 660 1,665 1,665 1,033 86 86 115



Usual residents 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784 7,784

Visitors 15,129 10,590 12,103 9,077 7,565 15,129 30,258 30,258 24,207 6,052 6,052 9,077




Usual residents 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217 8,217

Visitors 17,794 12,456 14,236 10,677 8,897 17,794 35,589 35,589 28,471 7,118 7,118 10,677




Usual residents 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593 8,593

Visitors 20,434 14,304 16,347 12,260 10,217 20,434 40,868 40,868 32,695 8,174 8,174 12,260

Non resident workers 234 141 141 141 47 1,078 2,718 2,718 1,687 141 141 187



Usual residents 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071 7,071

Visitors 11,413 7,989 9,130 6,848 5,706 11,413 22,826 22,826 18,261 4,565 4,565 6,848

Non resident workers 131 79 79 79 26 602 1,518 1,518 942 79 79 105



Usual residents 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414 7,414

Visitors 13,769 9,638 11,015 8,261 6,884 13,769 27,537 27,537 22,030 5,507 5,507 8,261




Usual residents 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896

Visitors 16,642 11,649 13,314 9,985 8,321 16,642 33,284 33,284 26,627 6,657 6,657 9,985




Usual residents 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442 8,442

Visitors 19,574 13,702 15,659 11,744 9,787 19,574 39,148 39,148 31,318 7,830 7,830 11,744




Usual residents 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965 8,965

Visitors 22,477 15,734 17,982 13,486 11,239 22,477 44,955 44,955 35,964 8,991 8,991 13,486



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Notes: 1. Experimental forecasts only. Use with caution. Forecasts beyond 2026 are simple extrapolations and subject to increased

error. 2. All numbers should be rounded to acknowledge error and uncertainty associated with these forecasts.

The figures shown in Table 14 and Figure 39 have been calculated on a monthly basis. While usual residents are assumed to be present in the area year-round, forecasts for both visitors and non-resident workers have been modelled into monthly totals. Similar to the estimates shown in Figures 35 and 36, these figures represent a maximum monthly figure. These figures have been derived by dividing the estimated monthly total of visitors by the number of weekend days in each month. These monthly figures should be interpreted as the peak daily number of visitors possible in each month.

The forecast number of non-resident workers have been allocated to months based on a specific seasonal pattern. It is assumed that non-resident workers would be present for the entire month.

Figure 39: Lower bound forecasts of daily peak populations by month, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2, 2036.

Notes: Experimental forecasts. Should be considered indicative only. See text for a description of the method used and the many limitations

There are many limitations and errors associated with these forecasts. All numbers should be considered indicative only. Changing seasonal patterns of visitation, level of servicing of visitors and thus the demand for non-resident workers, plus varying levels of attractiveness of the Jindabyne-Berridale area will all impact on the accuracy of the forecasts.

The population component accounting for the largest amount of change between 2016 and 2036 is the forecast number of visitors. While the lower bound forecasts shown in Table 14 and Figure 39 assume that Jindabyne-Berridale will attract the same share of NSW visitor nights as it does currently, this relationship may not hold true in the future. If the share of visitors to Jindabyne-Berridale declines, there will be fewer visitors than forecast here. Additionally, the forecast number of visitor nights produced by Tourism Research Australia may prove to be overly optimistic providing another source of potential error.

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4.10. Future demand for social infrastructure

4.10.1. Literature on social infrastructure

Research has identified that ‘…residents who benefit most from economic gains and sociocultural improvements are more likely to support tourism.’ (Choi and Murray, 2009). However, where residents can see damaged caused by tourists, or experience negative impacts such as rising housing costs, road congestion or increased litter, they are less likely to be supportive. Other studies have found that despite some economic benefits, destination communities also bear an economic burden.

In addition to attitudes to the future and extent of tourism activity, in high volume tourist locations the number of visitors can significantly impact demand for local infrastructure. This can range from accommodation requirements, whether in non-private or private dwellings, through to demand for water, sewage, road access and medical facilities, as well as community well-being. The previous Snowy River Shire Council’s Social Plan 2013-16 (pages 39 and 69) reported that:

▪ “Affordable and secure housing is an issue within Jindabyne: rents are high and increase in winter

▪ Winter workers are often isolated and living away from home for the first time

▪ Winter staff are seen by some permanent residents as responsible for spikes in petty crime during the winter months

▪ Winter’s extra residents place demands on housing, health and social services, infrastructure and the Shire’s social fabric” and

▪ “There is community concern regarding issues such as vandalism and graffiti in Jindabyne and Berridale during the winter tourism season

▪ Women and older people report feeling worried about their safety during winter.”

Extensive literature exists highlighting the importance of local public, as well as tourist-specific infrastructure for ensuring sustainable tourism. The 2010 ‘Sustainable Regional Tourism Destinations; Best practice for management, development and marketing’ report identified a series of best practice principles for developing sustainable destinations. One of these related to infrastructure provision and the need for careful planning and management ‘…to ensure a balance between tourism growth and development of supporting infrastructure and facilities.’ Best practice regional tourism destinations were said to ‘…establish adequate infrastructure and facilities so the destination develops as a good place to live, to do business and to visit.’

In planning for adequate infrastructure and facilities in locations where tourist numbers swell the local population, it is imperative that appropriate numbers are used. Such numbers require an appreciation of peak populations or the total population including usual residents and visitors or other temporary populations that may be present at different points in time.

However, it needs to be recognised that each of these total population components will contribute to demand in different ways. For example, tourists are not likely to generate demand for school education infrastructure and their usage of community facilities, and medical and emergency services for example, is probably generally lower than the level of usage of usual residents.

4.10.2. Benchmarks for social infrastructure

The South East and Tablelands Regional Plan 2036 is silent on social infrastructure guidelines or benchmarks. The Snowy Monaro Regional Council is in the process of preparing a Community Strategic Plan that may provide some guidance. However, there are a number of benchmarks or guidelines for the provision of social infrastructure available. Some have been developed for specific locations (Demographic and Social Infrastructure Assessment for Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct (prepared by Elton, 2018); Moe and District Social Infrastructure Plan for Latrobe City Council (Ethos Urban, 2018)); some have been prepared for specific types of communities (Planning for Community Infrastructure in Growth Areas, prepared by Australian Social and Recreation Research, 2008), while others are presented as applicable at a regional scale (South East Queensland Regional Plan 2005-2026, Implementation Guideline No. 5, Social infrastructure planning).

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Social infrastructure generally operates in a hierarchy of provision. Thus, the infrastructure operates at different scales servicing different size catchments (of both people and space). As noted in the SEQ Regional Plan guideline (page 17):

“For example, primary schools, childcare centres and community halls generally service local catchments; secondary schools and community health centres generally service district catchments; and hospitals, universities and correctional centres service sub-regional or regional catchments.”

It should also be noted that social infrastructure provision may need to be more ‘generous’ in rural areas, areas that have poor transport connections, are isolated from larger service centres or have seasonal influxes of people that swell demand beyond that of the usually resident population.

Regardless of which benchmarks are used, they should be able to be amended to suit local conditions, evolve with changing policies, delivery models, funding arrangements and community expectations. Additionally, planning for the provision of social infrastructure should incorporate opportunities for future expansion or alteration to suit different purposes if strong future growth is anticipated or considerable demographic change, such as population ageing, is occurring.

Before planning for the addition of new facilities, it is important to undertake an audit of existing facilities. This should include developing an understanding of the capacity or constraints of existing facilities and services and whether those facilities and services have the potential to be re-purposed if required. A gap analysis can then highlight where additional requirements exist and strategies to address these requirements can be developed. It also needs to be stated that there are standards that apply to the quantity of services and facilities, and standards that apply to the quality. Discussion in the remainder of this section refers only to benchmarks for the quantity of services and facilities.

The list of recommended community services and facilities is long and includes services and/or facilities targeted at different age groups (pre-school, school and youth, aged), services and/or facilities for the whole community (neighbourhood and community centres, libraries, art and cultural activities, indoor and outdoor sports and recreation), plus services and infrastructure often provided by state or Commonwealth government departments or agencies (school education, higher and adult education, emergency and judicial services, health and community services, and social housing). State and Commonwealth providers often have their own benchmarks and priorities.

One relevant set of benchmarks is from the Latrobe City Council, Moe and District Social Infrastructure Plan prepared by Ethos Urban Pty Ltd in June 2018 (Figure 40).

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Figure 40: An example of selected community infrastructure benchmarks (Source: Ethos Urban, (2018). Moe and District Social Infrastructure Plan. Final report prepared for Latrobe Council May 2018. http://www.latrobe.vic.gov.au/files/9c3f1238-8bbc-4425-a579-a93e00ae9923/MDSIP_Draft_Report.pdf accessed 22 April, 2019).

These types of standards are a useful guide as they are expressed as a rate for the number of each respective target population. Using current population estimates by age, the standards can be used to determine current needs.

As Jindabyne is the closest service centre for the Thredbo and Perisher resorts, as well as being the location of many alternative accommodation options, it plays a critical role in providing services and infrastructure beyond just residents and visitors in the town. In addition, Jindabyne is the focus of much of the summer or shoulder season activity, especially that focused around Lake Jindabyne itself. For these reasons, a population projection specific to the Jindabyne area should be prepared before assessing future requirements for social infrastructure. Consideration should also be given to the demands generated by the different components of the population including domestic and overseas visitors, seasonal workers and visiting second homeowners.

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4.11. Main Findings

▪ Settlement structure

Residents of Jindabyne have a number of services available locally. However, many additional services are provided at Cooma, located a 45-minute drive north-east of Jindabyne. For higher order medical, educational, shopping or entertainment options, the key centre of Canberra is located a two-hour drive or 170 kilometres away.

▪ Current population trends

Over the 12 years to 2018, annual population increases in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area have remained low at less than 100 persons per annum.

The Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 has consistently been the location of most of the population growth within the Snowy Monaro Regional Area between 2006 and 2018.

Most growth in the Greater Jindabyne urban area was in East Jindabyne, while the Jindabyne urban centre lost population.

Considerable population growth has occurred in rural areas surrounding Jindabyne. This is important for determining future dwelling demand and service requirements.

▪ Age structure

Jindabyne is over-represented with young working age people aged between 20 and 35 years, while in contrast, Cooma and Berridale had higher population shares of both the youngest and the oldest populations.

The population of the Greater Jindabyne urban area (as defined in this report) grew by 111 people over the decade to 2016, reaching just over 2,600 people.

While the total population grew by over 100 people, the number of children aged less than 15 years and the number of people aged between 35-49 years declined over the decade to 2016. In their place, there were more people in the young working ages (20-34 years), and those aged 50 years and over.

▪ Household and family structure

In 2016 over half (54%) of dwellings in the Greater Jindabyne urban area were either non-private dwellings, occupied by visitors or unoccupied at the time of the Census. Only just over one-quarter of dwellings (27%) contained family households.

This large proportion of non-private, visitor or unoccupied dwellings reflects the specialised nature of Jindabyne.

The largest increase in households in the ten years to 2016 was an extra 144 visitor only households, followed by an additional 93 lone person households.

▪ Drivers of demographic change

Overseas migration was the biggest contributor to population growth in Jindabyne-Berridale, accounting for an extra 154 people in the population between 2016-18.

More people moved away from Jindabyne-Berridale than moved in from other parts of Australia. The population declined by 118 people due to this out-flow between 2016-18.

Just over 1,000 people either moved to Jindabyne-Berridale or departed to other parts of Australia in 2017-18. As a result, there was a substantial turnover of properties and impact on service demand.

People aged in their twenties were the peak age group for people to move in and move out of Jindabyne-Berridale.

However, because the number of people in their twenties moving in, almost matched those moving out, nearly half of the net gain due to internal migration was among young family age groups – almost 50% were people aged between 35 and 44 years, with a further 42% of the gain, children between 5 and 14 years.

Overseas immigrants were also mainly young with almost 70% of people aged between 20 and 34 years.

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▪ Past and future growth

Illustrating the slower growth that has occurred since the projections were prepared, the 2016 population estimate for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area was below all three projections series (low, medium and high).

However, if growth recorded between 2016-18 continues, the high series projection of an increase of 450 people between 2016-21 is feasible.

Current high series projections indicate modest growth of just over 1,800 people over the 20 years to 2036.

Projections of the future population of Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 suggest growth will range between 1,500 and 2,800 people over the 30 years to 2046. This is equivalent to an increase of between 49 and 94 people each year.

Most of the growth is projected to occur among people aged 50 years and over.

▪ Tourist populations

The number of domestic visitors to the Snowy Mountains tourism region has risen by 293,000 visitors or more than 40% over the five-year period since 2014.

In contrast, the number of day trippers to the region has declined by 28% since its peak in 2016.

These numbers translate to an estimated 806,000 domestic visitors and 318,000 day trippers to the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area in 2018.

Larger parties of friends and/or relatives and family groups accounted for almost two-thirds of domestic visitors, while smaller parties of couples and people on their own represented just over one-third of visitors.

In 2017, there were 15,000 international visitors to the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area with this number growing in 2018. The average length of stay was 14 nights suggesting some stayed only a short time, but others stayed for an extended period possibly undertaking some temporary employment.

One-third of domestic and overseas visitors were aged in their twenties while only 21% were aged 50 years or more.

Forecast visitors to Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 are expected to rise from a peak daily number of 20,750 visitors in 2016-17 to between 40,850 visitors (lower bound) and 44,950 visitors (upper bound) in 2035-36. Visitor numbers are expected to continue to grow over the following years

▪ Tourist accommodation

The main type of accommodation utilised by domestic visitors was ‘Other’ (including B&Bs and Airbnb properties – 41%), followed by hotels (32%), home of friend or relative (16%) and commercial camping or caravan park (11%).

Most international visitors were unaccompanied. The main type of accommodation used was again ‘Other’ consisting of privately-owned accommodation, B&Bs, Airbnb properties and similar, which accounted for 71% of all international tourist nights in 2017.

International visitors were only one-third as likely as domestic visitors to stay in Hotels or similar accommodation. In contrast, staying in ‘Camping/caravan parks’ was five times as significant for domestic visitors compared with international visitors.

▪ Seasonality

The peak period for room occupation in Jindabyne-Berridale is from July through to September, with average room occupancy rates of 66% compared with the period from October through to June with an average room occupancy rate of 22%.

▪ Census-derived total population

Over 3,500 visitors were counted in the Greater Jindabyne urban area at the time of the 2016 Census. This can be added to the 2,604 usual residents counted there to arrive at a total population estimate in early August 2016 of 6,107 people.

There were more visitors than usual residents in the Greater Jindabyne urban area in August 2016. Visitors have outnumbered usual residents at each of the last three Census counts.

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Most of the visitors were in occupied private dwellings (55%) with the remaining 45% counted in non-private dwellings (45%).

▪ Temporary populations

In 2016, almost 1,400 people were working in Jindabyne-Berridale but usually lived elsewhere outside the immediate area.

Almost 60% of these non-resident workers lived in occupied private dwellings with about 40% in non-private dwellings as staff or guests.

This is a sizeable number of people competing with local residents and visitors for accommodation.

Almost one-third of private dwellings in Jindabyne urban area were unoccupied at the 2016 Census. This suggests a large number of the more than 500 vacant dwellings may have been second homes.

Over 900 properties in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area had Airbnb bookings in the year to October 2018. While most of the bookings were for entire homes, over two-thirds were only booked for between 0-90 days.

▪ Estimates of the total population

Experimental estimates of total populations by month for the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area show a peak of over 44,000 people in July and almost 41,000 people in August of 2016. The lowest total population was estimated at just over 25,000 people in both May and October.

These experimental estimates illustrate how the total population varies as a result of the influx of visitors and seasonal workers. These estimates could be used to identify peak demand periods and plan for variations in demand for services and facilities required for these populations.

▪ Social infrastructure demand

To properly apply benchmarks for the provision of social infrastructure, current population projections reflecting an agreed perspective on future growth are required. Additionally, estimates of the total population should be take into account as demand is likely to increase during peak periods. However, the need for social infrastructure will vary according to population type and characteristics so these should be taken into account.

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5. EXISTING HOUSING STOCK

5.1. Suburb Profile

The town centre of Jindabyne is characterised by broad range of housing typologies dating back to the 1960's to the present (refer to Figure 41). New development is generally located along the southern boundary of the centre, with apartments located along the western boundary. The study area also comprises several suburbs, each with a unique and distinct architectural style, different built form typologies and different materials.

An illustrative overview of each of the main suburbs and estates, within the study area, has been provided below.

Figure 41: Existing housing stock

5.1.1. Highview Estate

Highview Estate is located approximately 2.5km from the centre of Jindabyne. The zoning within this area is R1 General Residential, R2 Low Density Residential and R5 Large Lot Residential, which

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permits a range of uses including “dwelling houses” and dual occupancies”. The minimum lot size ranges from 700 sqm 2 hectares, which provides an opportunity for residents to live within a rural-residential lifestyle (refer to Figure 42).

Given the topography and orientation of the estate, many of properties only have eastern views of Lake Jindabyne. No town services are available within this location; therefore, properties require self-serving, onsite sewerage and water infrastructure.

Figure 42: Existing housing stock at Highview Estate (Source: City Plan, 2019)

5.1.2. Tyrolean Village

Tyrolean Village is located approximately 7km from the centre of Jindabyne, with its main access road along Kosciuszko Road. The suburb was firstly planned to cater for tourist accommodation, however given its distance from services in the town centre and ski resorts, take up for tourist accommodation was limited and eventually turned, for most part, into a suburb for permanent residents.

The suburb is predominately zoned RU5 Village which permits a range of uses including “residential accommodation” and “tourist accommodation”. Existing housing stock within the suburb primarily includes older dwelling houses from the 1980s-1990s, with modern developments being recently completed (refer to Figure 43).

Despite the suburb being connected with town services, such as water and sewer, there are many vacant blocks of land, many of which have been sold several times, however due to considerations such as high labour costs, have yet to be developed.

Figure 43: Existing housing stock at Tyrolean Village (Source: City Plan 2019)

5.1.3. East Jindabyne

As with Tyrolean Village, East Jindabyne was firstly planned to cater for tourism accommodation, however due to its distance to the town centre and sweeping views of Lake Jindabyne, has been taken up largely by residential accommodation for permanent residents.

The suburb is located approximately 10 km from the centre and is predominately zoned a mix of both RU5 Village and R5 Large Lot Residential, which permit a range of land uses including, “residential accommodation” and “tourist accommodation”.

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Existing housing stock in this area includes both modern and older single detached dwellings from the 1970s. As with Tyrolean Village, despite infrastructure being available, a number of parcels of land have been left vacant and there are numerous lots within existing subdivision that remain undeveloped (refer to Figure 44).

As part of the site visit to East Jindabyne, it became apparent that a number of the residential properties encompassed a secondary dwelling, in the form of a small studio unit located towards the back of the property, despite being prohibited within the zoning for this area. We understand that the majority of these secondary dwellings were constructed years ago are currently being rented out to tourists or seasonal workers during the peak winter season.

Figure 44: Existing stock in East Jindabyne (Source: City Plan, 2019)

5.1.4. Jindabyne

Jindabyne is the centre of activity within study area. It comprises a mix of different zones including R1 General Residential, R2 Low Density Residential and B2 Local Centre, which permit a variety of land uses including “residential accommodation”, “tourism accommodation” and “food and drink premises.

The centre of Jindabyne is predominately characterised by two shopping centres, which provide retail offerings such as one Woolworths supermarket, restaurants and ski equipment shops. Surrounding the centre are a mix of different residential typologies including residential flat buildings (refer to Figure 45), shop top housing, multi-dwelling houses and single detached dwelling house (refer to Figure 46).

Existing housing stock, east of the centre, were originally built in the 1960s and 1970s during the construction of the Snowy Hydro and Jindabyne Dam. There has been limited urban renewal in this area, due to insufficient capacity in the infrastructure network, including water and sewer and also many of the properties were built using asbestos, which is difficult to remove and dispose of.

Given the limited redevelopment in this area and the older housing stock, many of the dwellings do not meet the expectations of permanent residents. They are therefore being used by many temporary workers and tourists during the peak periods.

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Figure 45: Existing stock in Jindabyne (Source: City Plan, 2019)

Figure 46: Dwellings, east of the centre (Source: City Plan, 2019)

5.2. Short-term rental accommodation

Short term rental accommodation within Jindabyne provides an opportunity for homeowners to rent out properties to both visitors and temporary workers. It could take the form of either a single detached house, an apartment or even a serviced apartment within a resort or hotel complex.

From the meetings conducted with industry experts, there are approximately 275 properties exclusively managed by local real estate agents, solely for the purpose of short-term accommodation. This represents approximately 30% of the number of dwellings within the study area (i.e. the study area using the ABS “urban centre” statistics). The majority of these properties are “second homes”, owned by investors residing in either Sydney or Canberra and only use the property for a limited time each year.

Historically, these properties have been leased for a minimum of 14 weeks during the peak season. However more recently, due to the significant demand, specifically during winter, the minimum lease period has been increased to 16 weeks, with the major ski resorts including Thredbo and Perisher booking a number of these premises for their seasonal workers.

This therefore places an enormous pressure on permanent residents who cannot afford to purchase a property and require a 52-week lease to reside in Jindabyne, in close proximity to their place of employment.

A detailed description of short-term rental accommodation offerings has been provided below.

5.2.1. Hotels and Caravan Parks

Table 16 provides a summary of the visitor and tourist accommodation offerings within Jindabyne, including hotels, motels and resorts. There are approximately 20 hotels registered online, using the hotel booking website, bookings.com.

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Rydges Horizons Snowy Mountains is located on Kosciusko Road, directly along the foreshore of Lake Jindabyne (refer to Figure 47). This hotel is the only 4-star accommodation within the town. It comprises 120 rooms, 81 of which are directly managed by Rydges. The remaining 39 rooms are privately owned and are either used as private holiday accommodation or are leased bon websites such as Airbnb.

Figure 47: Rydges Horizons Snowy Mountains (Source: City Plan, 2019)

Table 16: Jindabyne Hotels (Source: Booking.com, available at https://www.booking.com accessed 12 April

2019)

Hotel Name Address

1 Lake Jindabyne Hotel 48 Kosciuszko Road

2 Rydges Horizons Snowy Mountains 10 Kosciuszko Road

3 Banjo Paterson Inn 1 Kosciuszko Road

4 Kookaburra Lodge 10 Clyde Street

5 Jindy Inn 18 Clyde Street

6 Vikas Lodge 1 Kurrajong Street

7 Troldhaugen Lodge 13 Cobbadah Street

8 Hannas Hutte Lodge 51 Gippsland Street

9 Chalet Jindabyne 67 Gippsland Street

10 Aalberg Chalet 8 Kirwan Clos

11 Acacia Snowy Motel 8 Nettin Circuit

12 Alpine Resort Motel 1 Nettin Circuit

13 Panorama Hotel 16 Nettin Circuit

14 Altitude 1260 226 Westons Road

15 The Station Hotel 8228 Snowy River Way

16 Mowamba River Lodge 219 Frost Creek Lane

https://www.booking.com/

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Hotel Name Address

17 Willow Bay Lodge 66 Kunama Drive

18 Siesta Villa 56 Jerrara Drive

19 Snowview Units 1 Jerrara Drive

20 JE Resort 16 Hilltop Road

Table 17 provides a summary of the caravan parks within Jindabyne. Caravan parks generally do not permit permanent residents. They are however an important component of NSW’s tourism industry, providing a range of short-term accommodation types and other services to meet the needs of a wide cross section of visitors.

The NRMA Jindabyne Holiday Park is located opposite the Jindabyne town centre and along the foreshore of Lake Jindabyne. It provides an opportunity to cater for a different tourist profile. Many tourists who visit Jindabyne and the surrounding area drive larger family vehicles and moveable dwellings such as caravans to arrive to the destination.

Caravan Parks therefore provide an alternative accommodation option, which allows caravans to be parked for the short term, they also offer amenities and facilities such as showers and toilets.

Table 17: Caravan Parks (Source: Booking.com, available at https://www.booking.com accessed 12 April 2019)

Caravan Parks

1 Discovery Parks – Jindabyne 6532 Kosciuszko Road

2 NRMA Jindabyne Holiday Park 6 Kosciuszko Road

3 Pats Patch Caravan Park - Jindabyne Frost Creek Lane

Jindabyne is predominately a service town for the ski resorts, including Perisher Valley, Thredbo (refer to Figure 48), Charlotte Pass and Selwyn (refer to Figure 49). Each ski resort has been designed as a mini township, including a range of accommodation types such as hotels, serviced apartment buildings and dwelling houses, shops, bars and recreational/tourist facilities commensurate with their scale and market segment.

Figure 48: Thredbo accommodation (Source: Alpha Demographics, 2019)

https://www.booking.com/

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Figure 49: Crackenback Resort (Source: Alpha Demographics, 2019)

5.3. Affordable housing

Affordable rental housing is housing provided to people on very low to moderate incomes and may include a range of accommodation types and sizes, including detached dwellings, townhouses and apartments. They are also priced appropriately, to ensure the lessee can afford other essentials such as food, education and medical care.

Affordable rental housing is usually managed or owned by not-for-profit community housing providers, and/or by private organisations.

From publicly available information and from the site visits conducted, government agencies own several houses within the study area. They are primarily single detached dwellings, located within the Jindabyne centre, many of which located along Banjo Patterson Crescent.

We have also been informed that public housing is provided to both teachers and police officers who live locally within the Jindabyne area.

5.4. Seniors Housing

The number of people in the older working ages or pre-retirement age groups (50-64 years) within the study area, grew by a sizeable number (up from 16% to 19% of the population). In line with population ageing, the number of people aged 65 and over also increased, jumping from 8% of the population to 11% by 2016.

Despite the ageing population, there is limited seniors housing and affordable rental housing for seniors within Jindabyne. This was raised as a concern as part of the Jindabyne Action Plan, where the following actions were raised as a priority:

▪ Identify opportunities to provide permanent rental housing through the Australian Government’s National Rental Affordability Scheme;

▪ Liaise with landowners and developers regarding the provision of independent seniors living housing

▪ Participate in the Regional Housing Taskforce

The local council offers two aged care options, in Berridale and Cooma, for seniors within the local government area.

The closest option to the study area is the Snowy River Hostel, approximately 30 km away at 7 Jindalee Street, Berridale. The Hostel has been operating since 1993 and offers 13 permanent spaces as we all one respite bed.

The Yallambee Lodge is located 65 km from Jindabyne, at 1 Binalong Street, Cooma. The facility has 40 permanent beds and 2 respite beds.

Given the limited number of aged care options in the region, ageing in place, or the decision of older residents to continue living in their home after retirement, is estimated to be the most common housing choice in the LGA.

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Ageing in place, raises many challenges for the region’s housing market, as many of the existing dwelling have a low occupancy rates, which could be made available to families residing in the region. Additionally, it places a strain on existing infrastructure and services, which would ordinarily be provided by aged care services, including:

▪ Increased demand for a range of support and health care services.

▪ Increased demand for public transport services.

▪ Increased demand for social infrastructure such as libraries and parks.

‘Granny flat’ and “secondary dwelling” housing stock is also an option for residents deciding to age in place. This form of housing can allow older residents to maintain independence while living close to family, reducing the need to rely on public and community services.

Since 2011, only 1 seniors housing development was approved within Jindabyne. It is located along Barry Way, Jindabyne and accommodates 2 detached and 26 semi-detached dwellings and a community building. Limited information is available for this approved development, however given the dwelling typology approved, it is most likely a seniors independent housing development comprising "self-containing dwellings". This is different to a "residential aged care facility", as it unlikely includes personal care and meal services.

Any seniors housing development in Jindabyne would need to consider the unique environmental constraints of the region. Jindabyne is significantly constrained by its topography, which limits the accessibility and connectivity for seniors. Significant infrastructure upgrades, within the town would be required, such as suitable pedestrian footpaths, crossings and public transportation.

5.5. Main Findings

▪ Given the segmented growth of Jindabyne, each individual locality is characterised by a distinct architectural style - including:

Highview Estate is characterised by rural residential living with eastern views of Lake Jindabyne. Land is not serviced with town infrastructure.

Tyrolean Village comprises housing stock from the 1980s-1990s. Despite being serviced with town infrastructure, many blocks remain vacant and undeveloped.

East Jindabyne comprises hosing stock from the 1970s-1980s. It was originally planned as a tourist suburb, however due to its distance to the ski resorts and the town centre, it has become a popular location for permanent residential development.

Jindabyne (town centre) is characterised by mix use development, including shops, restaurants and apartments. To the East of the centre, is a locality characterised by older housing stock, with limited urban renewal due to the lack of capacity in town infrastructure available.

▪ In Jindabyne there are approximately 275 short-term accommodation dwellings, which are leased for a minimum of 16 weeks at a time. These are private dwellings, exclusively managed by real estate agents, some of which may also be advertised on websites such as AirBnb.

▪ There are approximately 20 hotels and 3 caravan parks, excluding resorts within the ski fields.

▪ There is limited affordable housing available in the locality, apart from housing provided to key workers such as teachers and police officers.

▪ There are only two seniors housing facilities in the vicinity, in Cooma and Berridale.

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6. HOUSING STATISTICS

6.1. Dwelling Density

The Jindabyne centre has a dwelling density of more than 50 dwellings per “mesh block” as defined by the ABS (refer to Figure 50). The dwelling density decreases outside the centre, where it reduces to a dwelling density of approximately 21-50 dwellings per "mesh block".

Figure 50: Dwelling Density (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

6.2. Total Dwellings

The majority of dwellings within Jindabyne or 43% were “separate houses”. There has been a significant increase in the quantum of “semi-detached, row or terrace houses and townhouses” been constructed, with a 69% increase from 2011 to 2016 (refer to Table 18).

There was also an increase in the number of dwellings in both East Jindabyne and Cooma. The majority of dwellings were also “separate houses”. Cooma however, has a greater diversity of housing stock, with a mix of apartments which were primarily constructed between 1950’s-1970’s and more recently constructed medium density dwellings such as townhouses.

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However, as outlined in the South East Tablelands Regional Plan, other areas within the region have much higher proportions of single detached dwellings, including the Upper Lachlan Shire, with approximately 96% single detached dwellings, Bega Valley 80% and the Australian Capital Territory 71%.

Over the 4-year period, from 2011 to 2016, there was a minor decrease in the number of dwellings (a total of 3 dwellings) in Lakewood Estate.

In the Jindabyne-Berridale (SA1) area, in comparison, there were 7,071 dwellings in 2016.

Table 18: Number of dwellings (Source: ABS available at https://www.abs.gov.au/ accessed 12 April 2019)

Dwelling Structure Jindabyne East Jindabyne Lakewood Estate Cooma

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

Separate house 263 273 142 186 76 73 2,242 2,253

Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc

96 163 0 3 0 0 179 108

Flat or apartment 168 179 5 8 0 0 121 165

Other dwelling 14 7 0 0 0 0 17 28

3-bedroom dwellings are the most common dwelling type within the region. In Jindabyne, 7.4% of private dwellings had 1 bedroom, 23.5% had 2 bedrooms and 43.5% had 3 bedrooms. The average number of bedrooms per occupied private dwelling was 2.9. In Cooma, 5.0% of private dwellings had 1 bedroom, 17.1% had 2 bedrooms and 48.6% had 3 bedrooms. Lakewood Estate comprises no 1- or 2-bedroom houses (refer to Table 19).

In East Jindabyne there has been a sharp increase in the number of 4-bedroom houses, with an increase of 34% since 2011, reflecting the suburb’s population profile, of mainly permeant residents and families.

This is similar when compared to the Jindabyne-Berridale data, which outlines that 40% of dwellings within the greater region are 3-bedroom dwellings and 31% are 4 or more bedrooms.

Table 19: Number of bedrooms (Source: ABS available at https://www.abs.gov.au/ accessed 12 April 2019)

No. of bedrooms Jindabyne East Jindabyne Lakewood Estate Cooma

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

None (includes bedsitters) 3 0 0 3 0 0 8 3

1 bedroom 30 47 3 3 0 0 134 128

2 bedrooms 128 150 16 23 4 0 432 439

3 bedrooms 235 278 59 76 26 21 1,281 1,251

4 or more bedrooms 135 135 63 96 47 48 663 653

Number of bedrooms not stated 26 29 7 0 0 0 46 99

Average number of bedrooms per dwelling

3 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.1 3

Average number of people per household

2.4 2.3 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.1

https://www.abs.gov.au/


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Of households, family households are the most common dwelling type within the region. In Jindabyne, 53.5% were family households, 33.0% were single person households and 13.5% were group households. In Cooma 61.5% were family households, 35.6% were single person households and 2.9% were group households (refer to Table 20). East Jindabyne does not comprise any group households. Pursuant to the State Environmental Planning Policy (Affordable Rental Housing) 2009, a "group home" means a dwelling that is occupied by persons as a single household with or without paid supervision or care and whether or not those persons are related or payment for board and lodging is required, and that is used to provide permanent household accommodation for people with a disability or people who are socially disadvantaged.

Within the Jindabyne-Berridale region, 67% of households were family households, 28% were single person households and 5% were group households.

Table 20: Household composition (Source: ABS available at https://www.abs.gov.au/ accessed 12 April 2019)

Household composition Jindabyne East Jindabyne Lakewood Estate Cooma

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

Family households 326 342 120 156 62 62 1,618 1,590

Single (or lone) person households 165 211 26 43 12 15 880 919

Group households 63 86 0 10 3 0 65 75

In Jindabyne and Cooma, of private dwellings, 45.3% and 31.2% were rented respectively (refer to Table 21). There has been a 30% increase in the number of rented properties in Jindabyne since 2011. This is substantially higher than private houses in East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate where the majority of dwellings are owned with a mortgage. This is primarily due to permanent residents residing in Lakewood Estate and East Jindabyne, therefore purchasing a house rather than renting. Jindabyne on the other hand, is characterised by tourist accommodation and casual workers, who tend to rent accommodation in the centre of town, in close proximity to infrastructure and services.

In the Jindabyne-Berridale region 33% of dwellings were owned outright, 31.7% were owned with a mortgage and 28% were rented.

Table 21: Dwelling ownership (Source: ABS available at https://www.abs.gov.au/ accessed 12 April 2019)

Tenure Jindabyne East Jindabyne Lakewood Estate Cooma

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

Owned outright 128 142 56 66 28 28 935 923

Owned with a mortgage 175 172 61 86 40 38 769 732

Rented 224 291 26 44 9 4 774 810

Other tenure type 0 9 0 0 0 0 14 14

Tenure type not stated 28 29 5 4 0 0 74 118

In Jindabyne, 43.8% of private dwellings were unoccupied during the census. This is a substantial different compared to East Jindabyne, Lakewood Estate and Cooma, where the number of unoccupied dwellings ranged from 13.1% to 22.6% (refer to Table 22). This is a 12.8% increase when compared to the 2011 census data. Owners intentionally leaving dwellings unoccupied to use as holiday houses and the rise of Airbnb could potentially be the reasons for the significant number of unoccupied homes in this location.



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In the Jindabyne – Berridale region, 69% of dwellings were occupied private dwellings and 31% were unoccupied private dwellings.

Table 22: Dwelling Occupancy (Source: ABS available at https://www.abs.gov.au/ accessed 12 April 2019)

Tenure Jindabyne East Jindabyne Lakewood Estate Cooma

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

Occupied private dwellings 556 642 145 205 77 73 2,564 2,596

Unoccupied private dwellings 509 501 47 60 13 19 434 390

6.3. Median Land Price

Table 23 provides a summary of the median land price, for land within residential localities, for different suburbs with the study area and also Cooma for comparison. Land in East Jindabyne is valued at $284/sqm, which is the highest within the study area, most likely due the suburbs waterfront location and preference for permanent residents. Jindabyne has a land price of $260/sqm, while Cooma is valued at $110/sqm.

The preference of East Jindabyne for permanent residents may be the reason for the large quantum of vacant land currently on the market. The high construction costs coupled with the lack of finance from major banks, due to the findings of the royal commission, has impacted the local construction industry for new family homes. Investors, on the other hand, tend to purchase properties with more equity, therefore are not reliant on finance from banks for construction and acquisition.

Table 23: Median Land Price (Source: domain.com.au available at https://www.domain.com.au accessed 21 April 2019)

Jindabyne East Jindabyne

Tyrolean Village

Highview Estate

Cooma

No. of properties listed 6 14 1 1 13

Price/sqm $260 $284 $273 $329 $110

6.4. Median Dwelling Price

The Jindabyne housing market is closely linked to the Sydney and Canberra market, given many of the properties are “second homes” owned by people residing in these cities. Despite the residential market across NSW “cooling” over recent months, properties in Jindabyne have significantly increased, mainly due to the high demand and lack of supply within the region.

Record low interest rates also contribute to increased demand for residential property. Across Jindabyne the price differential between detached dwellings and multi-unit dwellings (such as apartments and townhouses) also adds to demand for higher density product which is seen as a more affordable option. In turn developers and investors have increased their investment in housing projects to meet this demand.

The median sale price in Jindabyne in 2019 was $590,000 for a house and $350,000 for an apartment (refer to Table 24). This is approximate a 70% increase since 2013.

Limited historical sales data is available for East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate, however based on recent sales, dwellings have been selling for similar prices as the suburb of Jindabyne.


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Table 24: Jindabyne Median Price (Source: Realestate.com available at https://www.realestate.com.au/buy accessed 12 April 2019)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

House $345,000 $373,000 $376,000 $385,000 $460,000 $555,000 $590,000

Apartment $205,000 $210,000 $203,000 $222,000 $229,000 $299,000 $350,000

The median sale price in Cooma in 2019 was $310,000 for a house which is $280,000 cheaper than a house in Jindabyne (refer to Table 25). This is an approximate 57% increase since 2013.

According to real estate websites such as Domain and Realestate.com, there is no sales data available as no apartments were listed for sale between 2013 and 2019. This however may be due to the identification of housing stock on the real estate websites. During our research it was noted that apartments were listed as being sold within Cooma, despite the properties being more appropriately listed as holiday cabins. Additionally, many of the apartments listed as being sold, were apartments within a Torrens title buildings, rather than a strata subdivision, and were therefore not accounted for in the historical sales data.

Table 25: Cooma Median Sale Price (Source: Realestate.com available at https://www.realestate.com.au/buy accessed 12 April 2019)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

House $197,000 $203,000 $243,000 $250,000 $240,000 $280,000 $310,000

Apartment* - - - - - - -

*No apartments sold during this period

6.5. Median Rental Price

From a review of real estate websites in April 2019, there were few to no apartments or houses listed for rent in Jindabyne or surrounding suburbs. Figure 51 however provides a historical overview of rental yields i.e. the median advertised rent as a percentage of the median price.

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy


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Figure 51: Rental Yield in Jindabyne (Source: Realestate.com available at https://www.realestate.com.au/buy accessed 12 April 2019)

Rental yields for both houses and apartments have been decreasing from approximately 2016 and 2017, despite the sale prices for properties increasing substantially over this period. The most popular apartments being rented in 2018 were 3-bedroom apartments. Very few rental houses have historical being placed on the market, with the most being in 2017 and 2018 when only 11 houses were on the market.

Figure 52 illustrates that rental yields in Cooma have been relatively stable, with a slight decrease between 2012 and 2018.

Figure 52: Rental Yield in Cooma (Source: Realestate.com available at https://www.realestate.com.au/buy accessed 12 April 2019)

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rental Yield in Jindabyne

Units House

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rental Yield in Cooma

Units House


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6.6. Airbnb/HomeAway

Over the last few years, websites such as Airbnb have increasingly become the subject of debate regarding its impact on the housing market in Australia, particularly in urban centres and popular tourist locations such as Jindabyne.

In 2018, 18,730 people used the Airbnb and HomeAway websites, to book short term rental accommodation within the Snowy River Region, which incorporates the Jindabyne study area (refer to Table 26). The most popular month for visitors was July, where 4,277 people visited the region and booked accommodation from such websites.

Table 26: Number of guests (Source: AirDNA, available at https://www.airdna.co/ accessed 12 April 2019)

Jan ‘18

Feb 18’

Mar ‘18

Apr ‘18

May ‘18

Jun ‘18

Jul ‘18

Aug ‘18

Sep ‘18

Oct ‘18

Nov ‘18

Dec ‘18

Domestic 1,095 390 795 1,213 415 1,270 4,019 2,797 2,403 758 604 1,275

International 113 57 57 154 55 232 258 254 148 108 89 171

Total 1,208 447 852 1,367 470 1,502 4,277 3,051 2,551 866 693 1,446

Visitors to the region had a choice of renting entire houses, private rooms and shared rooms in the region. September has the most properties listed in 2018, with a total of 1,316 registered on the websites, 95% of which were entire homes (refer to Table 27 and Figure 53). There are fewer listings in August, which is in the peak of the winter season, most likely due to homeowners taking properties off the market for personal/holiday use. Additionally, bookings have already been taken and secured, and therefore properties are not available for rent or lease.

Table 27:Short term rental accommodation listings (Source: AirDNA, available at https://www.airdna.co/ accessed 12 April 2019)

Jan ‘18

Feb 18’

Mar ‘18

Apr ‘18

May ‘18

Jun ‘18

Jul ‘18

Aug ‘18

Sep ‘18

Oct ‘18

Nov ‘18

Dec ‘18

Entire home 767 865 891 908 913 1,035 1,149 976 1,244 1,162 1,140 1,167

Private room 38 34 44 41 43 58 67 65 70 55 53 62

Shared room 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 2 3 2 5

Total 807 901 937 951 958 1,096 1,219 1,045 1,316 1,220 1,195 1,234

Figure 53: Short term accommodation listings (Source: AirDNA, available at https://www.airdna.co/ accessed 12 April 2019)

On average in 2018, listed properties had a 56.5% occupancy rate. September was the most popular month with an occupancy rate of 91% and February was the least popular month with only 25% of properties occupied.

https://www.airdna.co/



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Table 28: Occupancy rates (Source: AirDNA, available at https://www.airdna.co/ accessed 12 April 2019)

Jan ‘18

Feb 18’

Mar ‘18

Apr ‘18

May ‘18

Jun ‘18

Jul ‘18

Aug ‘18

Sep ‘18

Oct ‘18

Nov ‘18

Dec ‘18

Total 807 901 937 951 958 1,096 1,219 1,045 1,316 1,220 1,195 1,234

Booked 308 227 400 420 340 590 790 856 1,200 761 797 929

% 38% 25% 42% 44% 35% 53% 64% 82% 91% 62% 67% 75%

The majority of listings on Airbnb/HomeAway are entire homes or apartments. The majority of listings were concentrated in the centre of Jindabyne (refer to Figure 54). These are vibrant and central locations where jobs are located for seasonal workers and tourist and entertainment facilities such as restaurants and bars.

The average nightly price for an entire home/apartment on Airbnb in Snowy River (the region, as described by AirDNA) region was $315, compared to $130 for a private room and $35 for a shared room.


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Figure 54: Short-term accommodation (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

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6.7. Vacancy Rates

The vacancy rates for visitor accommodation and number of visitors to Jindabyne each year is heavily weather dependent. A good snow season can mean significantly higher visitor numbers, whilst a poor snow fall usually translates to low visitor numbers.

Figure 55 summarises the snowfall each year for the period between 2004 to 2016. During this period, the quantum of snowfall significantly varies depending on the year. In 2004, 225.6cm of snow fell within the region, which is significantly higher than the snowfall in 2006 which only achieved 85.1 cm of snow.

Figure 55: Snowfall (Source: Snowy Hydro)

As outlined in Section 6.6 of this report, on average in 2018, listed properties had a 56.5% occupancy rate. September was the most popular month with an occupancy rate of 91% and February was the least popular month with only 25% of properties occupied.

This is similar to the data collected for major hotels within the study area. The Rydges Horizons, during consultation undertaken, indicated that during the winter months 95% of rooms are occupied. Christmas up until January is 90% occupied and the Easter period is usually 60%. October, November and December are generally the quietest months, with an occupancy rate of approximately 35-40%.

Over recent years, Jindabyne has encouraged and promoted various other activities throughout the year. During the off-peak season, tourists visit the town for mountain biking, fishing, hiking and various other events and festivals organised by both the ski resorts and Council (refer to Table 29).

Council has also successfully secured an $11.8 million NSW grant to extend the Jindabyne shared trail. The grant will allow an additional 100km of new trails to be constructed that will link existing walking and cycling routes around Lake Jindabyne. This new infrastructure will further encourage and enhance Jindabyne’s role as a multi-seasonal destination, rather than relying on tourism during the winter peak season.

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Table 29: Jindabyne Events

Event Period

Dragon Boat Challenge 16 February 2019

Lake Light Sculpture exhibition 19 April 2019

Tap Edit Go Workshop 9 May 2019

Snowy Mountains Trade Fair 14-15 May 2019

Jindabyne Local Produce Markets 18 May 2019

Perisher Peak Music Festival 7 June 2019

Ski Opener 8 June 2019

BrewSki Festival 24-29 June 2019

Snowtunes Music Festival 30 August 2019

Oktoberfest Jindabyne 28-29 September 2019

Kids Fishing Workshop 4-5 October 2019

Capture the High Country - Photography 4-6 October 2019

Snowy Ride 2 November 2019

Regional Study Hub Symposium 14-15 November 2019

L’Etape Australia by Tour de France 29-30 November 2019

Jindabyne’s Man from Snowy River Rodeo 29 December 2019

Snowies MTB Festival 14 February 2020

TreX Cross Triathlon Series – Snowy Mountains 29 February 2020

Snowies Ultra Trail Run 1 March 2020

6.8. Implication for Housing Provision

Short-term accommodation websites such as Airbnb are reshaping housing opportunity in private markets and high-demand areas with significant tourism appeal such as Jindabyne.

Short-term accommodation provides a platform which adds greater flexibility and opportunity for individual households to increase their weekly income. Many property owners within Jindabyne and the surrounding areas convert properties (or rent out individual rooms) to short-term accommodation during the peak seasonal period only, which is evident from the Airbnb data which shows that many listed properties are available in off-peak months.

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This conclusion reinforces that short-term accommodation comes at the expense of certainty for prospective tenants such as permanent residents, for whom long-term housing may be more difficult to secure, particularly in areas where seasonal rental properties are higher than usual.

The impacts of Airbnb on rental supply in large cities such as Sydney and Melbourne tend to be offset by the significant increase in the construction of dwellings over recent year. However as outlined in the historical dwelling approval data, Jindabyne has seen a relatively minor increase in the number of dwellings being constructed, which is insufficient to offset the high demand for rental properties, in particular during key seasonal periods.

Short term rental accommodation websites also offer positive outcomes to the local economy. Houses listed on Airbnb sometimes overlap with housing stock that is not usually part of the long-term housing market. For example, some houses may be owned by people from Sydney and used as a holiday house for selected periods of the year. Alternatively, it gives property owners an opportunity to rent our single rooms within a house when it is convenient. In doing so there is an increase in supply of accommodation offered to the market which would not ordinarily be available.

6.9. Main findings

As outlined in this section, the majority of existing dwellings are located within infill locations, such as within the Jindabyne centre. This is due to a variety of reasons including:

▪ The Jindabyne centre comprises appropriately zoned land, including B2 Local Centre, R1 General Residential and R2 Low Density Residential. These zones permit a range of higher density residential land uses such as residential flat buildings and shop-top housing. Greenfield locations, outside the centre of Jindabyne, are mainly rural zones such as RU1 Primary Production, which permit a limited range of residential land uses, mainly limited to single detached dwellings and have a larger minimum lot size of up to 40 hectares.

▪ Infill locations tend to comprise existing urban infrastructure and services such as water, sewer and electricity, with surplus capacity. Generally, there is less of a need to augment, extend or build new infrastructure to service development, which results in cheaper construction costs and economically feasible development of land.

▪ Infill locations tend to be more attractive for residential development, given the location of social, education and health infrastructure, employment and retail offerings.

▪ Dwellings within the region predominately comprise three-bedroom “separate houses”. This is due to the regional context of the study area. Population characteristics show that the majority of households are occupied by families, who tend to prefer larger houses with a backyard. Additionally, many of the houses within Jindabyne, in particular between Kosciuszko Road and the Snowy River, were built in the 1960s-1970s. Larger single storey houses were the trend during this period.

▪ A substantial number of dwellings in both Jindabyne (45.3%) and Cooma (31.2%) are rented. This is substantially higher than other part of the study area, such as East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate, where the majority of dwellings are owned with a mortgage. This is most likely due to tourist and casual workers preferring to stay in convenient locations, within a central location and close to tourist services and employment, which drives up the demand for rental properties. Permanent residents also prefer to stay in more isolated and remote locations, away from the tourist activity, and in close proximity to employment and services, such as East Jindabyne and Lakewood Estate.

▪ Historical sales data shows that Jindabyne has the highest demand for dwellings and apartments within the region. The median sale price in Jindabyne in 2019 was $590,000 for a house and $350,000 for an apartment. The median sale price in Cooma in 2019 was $310,000 for a house which is $280,000 cheaper than a house in Jindabyne. The median price increased by an average of 10% per year over a 7-year period from 2013 and 2019. The biggest increase occurred in 2018 which saw house prices increase by 21% and apartment prices increase by 31%.

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7. HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS

7.1. Development Activity

7.1.1. Development Applications

Table 30 provides a summary of development activity within the study area. It is largely derived from discussions with the development industry, council and State agencies as well as development application activity.

There have been a number of large subdivision applications being approved within the study area, some comprising up to 60 dwellings. Many of the subdivisions have commenced construction. From the site visits undertaken, it was however noted that many of these subdivisions, despite being connected to town services, have yet to be developed. From consultation with the local property industry, it was noted that this may be due to high construction costs including labour and material costs. Additionally, the lack of financing from banks, due to the recent Royal Commission, has been blamed for the delay and lack of construction in Jindabyne.

In addition to subdivision applications, there have been many applications being lodged for single detached dwellings and dual occupancy developments. An application was also recently lodged for a youth hostel on McLure Circuit, with approximately 10 beds, but only 4 parking spaces. During the consultation undertaken, industry experts noted that more onsite parking was required for developments within the centre, to alleviate the demand for on street parking during peak tourist periods.

From a review of Council's Development Application (DA) tracking website, there have been no new residential or tourist accommodation DAs being lodged within Cooma, at the time of preparing this study.

Table 30: Development Activity

Site No. of dwellings

1 Twynam Street, Jindabyne 60 dwellings (approved)

2 The Ridge Estate (Kunama Drive) 25 dwellings (approved)

4 Highview Estate Jindabyne 22 dwellings (approved)

5 Barry Way Future Residential 22 dwellings (approved)

6 Kosciuszko Road - General Residential 57 dwellings (approved)

7 Kosciuszko Road - Low Density Residential 25 dwellings (approved)

8 Kosciuszko Road - Large Lot Residential 21 dwellings (approved)

9 47-53 Kunama Drive Future Residential 11 dwellings (approved)

11 3 McLure Circuit, Jindabyne (lodged)

12 7731 The Snowy River Way, Jindabyne Dual Occupancy (lodged)

13 107 Gippsland Street, Jindabyne Staged Four (4) Transportable Dwellings for Tourist Accommodation Stage 1 Dwellings 1 & 2 Stage 2 Dwellings 3 & 4 (lodged)

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Site No. of dwellings

14 117a Gippsland Street, Jindabyne 3 x 2 storey townhouses as holiday dwellings (lodged)

15 75 Townsend Street, Jindabyne Demolish existing top 2 floors Create 1 ground floor unit and a new 2 storey house above. (lodged)

16 3 McLure Circuit, Jindabyne Tourist & Visitor Accommodation / Youth Hostel (lodged)

17 2/10 Mitchell Circuit, Jindabyne Change of Use - Serviced Apartment (lodged)

18 8/13 Kirwan Close, Jindabyne Change of Use to Serviced Apartment (lodged)

19 19 Jangungal Close, Jindabyne Dual Occupancy Serviced Apartments (lodged)

20 3/41 Townsend, Jindabyne Change of Use - Serviced Apartment (lodged)

7.1.2. Planning Proposals

Table 31, Figure 56 and Error! Reference source not found. provide a summary of the Planning Proposals (PP) currently lodged with the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment for both Jindabyne and Cooma.

A Gateway Determination was recently issued for 461 Barry Way, Moonbah, which is within the study area (refer to Figure 56), to rezone the land from RU1 Primary Production to R5 Large Lot Residential and to reduce the minimum lot size from 250 ha to 3,000 m2. This PP was prepared in accordance with the recommendations of the Jindabyne Growth Structure Plan which was adopted by Council in May 2007.

The Structure Plan identified this site as being suitable to accommodate additional capacity given it was connected to town water and sewerage services. The PP was accompanied by a subdivision concept plan which illustrated that the 2.75ha block could accommodate 6 allotments of between 3,330m2 to 5,200m2.

Another significant PP within the study area is known as “Rabbits Corner”, located on the corner of Alpine Way and Kosciuszko Road, This PP was to rezone the land to permit a range of uses including tourist and visitor accommodation and a service station. The PP was refused mainly as the development was not compatible with the site’s context, its lack of infrastructure services and the likely adverse impacts on the surrounding environment and scenic quality of the locality.

There are no other PPs currently being assessed, which would impact the development capacity of Jindabyne or the surrounding area.

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Figure 56: Jindabyne Planning Proposals (Source: EMAP Consulting)

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Table 31

Table 31: Planning Proposals

Description Status

Jindabyne Proposal to rezone 1.5 hectares (ha) of land, being Part of Lot 32 DP 1118132 Barry Way Jindabyne, from RU1 (Primary Production) to R2 (Low Density Residential) and reduce the minimum lot size from 40ha to 700m2

Pre-exhibition

A PP was approved to amend the Snowy River LEP 2013 to rezone land, being Lot 101 DP817374, 461 Barry Way Moonbah, from RU1 (Primary Production) to R5 (Large Lot Residential) and reduce the Lot size from 250ha to 3000m2.

Gateway Determination (GWD) was issued based on outcomes of “Go Jindabyne” masterplan.

GWD 2018

A PP was approved to reclassify and rezone part of Lot 20 DP219584, Kosciuszko Road Jindabyne from Community to Operational land, and from the RE1 Public Recreation Zone to the R1 General Residential Zone in the Snowy River Local Environmental Plan (LEP) 2013. This permits access to developments in the adjacent Mclure Circuit, Jindabyne.

Approved 2018

It was proposed to rezone the subject land known as “Rabbits Corner” from RU1 to SP3 to support a range of land uses including tourist and visitor accommodation, recreation areas, commercial premises such as take away food and drink premises and service stations.

Refused (rezoning review) 2014

It was proposed to amend Schedule 3 of the Snowy River Rural LEP 2007 (Additional Permitted Uses) to facilitate the development of a proposed tourism and residential development at Lake Jindabyne. It was proposed to develop the site for:

▪ 90 'tourist residential dwellings.

▪ Tourist accommodation (hotel, spa resort, convention centre & serviced apartments)-Commercial activities (food, shops and cafes, specialist sporting goods, art gallery and general retail).

▪ Public buildings (transport interchange and information centre).

Refused (rezoning review) 2013

Cooma The PP was approved to reduce the minimum lot size on a 20.68-hectare Lot 101 DP 1183622 at Yallakool Road, Cooma from 4,000m2 to 1,800m2 to provide between 56 to 61 dwellings.

Approved

2016

The PP was approved to amend Clause 4.2B of the LEP to dual occupancies to be erected where the land has an existing dwelling.

Approved

2014

7.2. Existing Zoning

Figure 59 illustrates the existing zoning within the study area. The study area predominately comprises six different land use zones (refer to Table 32). B2 Local Centre is located within the core of the town centre and permits the highest height of 12 metres, with no FSR control.

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Surrounding the B2 zone and within the surrounding suburbs and estates, including Tyrolean Village and East Jindabyne, is a mix of different zones including R5 Large Lot Residential and RU5 Village. These areas have a maximum height of 9 metres and an FSR of 0.5:1, where applicable.

Along the boundary of the study area is mainly RU1 Primary Production, which generally has a minimum lot size of 40 hectares.

Table 32: Study area zoning

Zone FSR Height Min. Lot Size

B2 Local Centre N/A 9 metres and 12 metres

N/A

R1 General Residential 0.5:1 9 metres 700 sqm

R2 Low Density Residential 0.5:1 9 metres 700 sqm

R5 Large Lot Residential N/A 9 metres 3,000 sqm

RU1 Primary Production N/A 9 metres 40 hectares

RU5 Village 0.5:1 9 metres 700 sqm

Table 34 summarises the permissibility of different residential types within the current zoning of the study area. From the research undertaken, it is evident, that many of the zones, permit a broad range of residential and tourist land uses.

7.2.1. Residential zones

The residential zones, specifically the R1, R2 and R5 zones, permit mainly low-density residential development. The R1 zone however permits a broader range, including residential flat buildings, shop top housing and boarding houses, with a minimum lot size of 3,000 sqm.

The study area comprises two rural zones, namely the RU1 and RU5 zone. The RU5 zone permits all residential and also some tourism related development. Despite permitting development such as dual occupancy, the RU1 zone has a minimum allotment size of 40 hectares.

Clause 4.1A of the Snowy Monaro LEP does, however, outlines minimum lot sizes required to cater for higher density residential development (refer to Table 33). However, should a development propose the subdivision of land, it would need to comply with the minimum lot size provisions pursuant to Clause 4.1 of the LEP, which are significantly greater and could be seen as a barrier to accommodate higher density developments.

Table 33: Minimum lot size (Source: Snowy River Local Environmental Plan 2013)

Land use Minimum lot size

Dual Occupancy (attached) 700 sqm to 3,000 sqm

2 ha if land is not serviced

Dual Occupancy (detached) 850 sqm to 13,500 sqm

2 ha if land is not serviced

Multi dwelling housing 1,050 sqm

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Residential flat buildings 1,050 sqm

7.2.2. Business zones

The study area also comprises two business zones, namely the B1 and B2 zones. The B1 zone is mainly limited to commercial and retail types of development. The B2 zone, despite permitting shop top housing, does not permit residential flat buildings. There may be an opportunity to broaden the permissible land uses within the B2 zoned land, to accommodate higher density development.

This should not be seen as a barrier to accommodate future commercial development. The Jindabyne town centre includes other appropriate land to accommodate non-residential land uses if required by market demand. For example, the parcel of land currently occupied by Mitre 10, located at 3 Snowy River Avenue (refer to Figure 57), is in an ideal location for a new retail/commercial complex, given it is directly adjacent and between to the two existing established shopping centres and also in close proximity to the NPWS Centre. It is also a large land parcel and under single ownership, which is generally seen as an opportunity for urban renewal.

Figure 57: Mitre 10 site (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

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7.2.3. Seniors housing

Seniors Housing under Council’s LEP is currently permitted within the B1, R2 and RU5 zoned land. Despite its broad permissibility across the study area, there has been limited take up of aged care developments. Therefore, it is crucial to find feasible sites to accommodate the broader ageing population of the region.

It is noted that the State Environmental Planning Policy (Housing for Seniors or People with a Disability) 2004, could also broaden the permissibility of “seniors housing” within the study area. However, given the study area’s environmental constraints (e.g. bushland and bushfire) and also the topographical constraints which may limit accessibility to services, reliance on the SEPP should be limited and appropriately zoned land under the LEP should be considered.

Additional land permitting “seniors housing” should be considered along the periphery of the centre’s core, in close proximity to shops and recreational facilities. Such land is typically less constrained by topography and other environmental constraints.

Residual land not being used for the church could be subdivided for additional development. Also, the land directly adjacent to the church is zoned RE1 Public Recreation and from a review of Council’s LEP, is free of any environmental constraints which may have otherwise restricted “seniors housing” development.

Should this land be rezoned for “seniors housing”, surrounding infrastructure, including footpaths, may be required to be upgraded to improve accessibility to the services located in the centre.

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Table 34: Permissible uses

Zone Dwelling house

Secondary dwelling

Attached dwelling

Semi-detached dwellings

Dual occupancy

Multi dwelling

Residential flat building

Shop top housing

Seniors housing

Boarding house

Hotels, motels, B&B etc

Serviced apartments

B1 Neighbourhood Centre

B2 Local Centre

R1 General Residential

R2 Low Density Residential

R5 Large Lot Residential

RU1 Primary Production

RU5 Village

E2 Environmental Conservation

E3 Environmental Management

Legend

Permissible

Prohibited

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Figure 59: Zoning Map (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

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7.3. Existing residential capacity

Existing residential capacity has been assessed at a precinct scale in order to determine trends in residential zoning and existing dwelling types. The 17 precincts are illustrated in Figure 60 below.

Figure 60: Planning Precincts (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

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7.3.1. "Jerrara Drive" Precinct, East Jindabyne

Table 35: "Jerrara Drive" Precinct

Figure 61: "Jerrara Drive" Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

Total precinct area: 496,721 m2

Total number of lots: 154

Zoning: R5 Large Lot Residential and B1 Neighbourhood Centre

Minimal constraints to development

▪ There is a significant portion of vacant land, which is predominantly privately owned at the southern end of the precinct, which is 71,528m2. Under existing planning controls this lot could potentially be subdivided into an additional 23 lots.

▪ A further 120 lots have a single dwelling, and therefore have potential to increase capacity by allowing dual occupancy units.

▪ There are 28 lots with multiple dwellings. These appear to be mostly dual occupancy dwellings.

Capacity:

▪ 23 single dwellings/lots

▪ 143 dual occupancy dwellings

Existing dwellings 148 dwellings

Additional capacity 166 dwellings

Total (dwellings/dual occupancy) 314 dwellings

Multi-dwelling housing (apartments and townhouses)

Assume 0.5:1 FSR

1.58 ha of B1 zoned land

6,304 sqm GFA (80% efficiency)

63 dwellings (assuming 100 sqm/dwelling)

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7.3.3. "Kunama Drive" Precinct

Table 37: "Kunama Drive" Precinct

Figure 63: "Kunama Drive" Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

Total precinct area: 328,990m2


Zoning: RU5 Village

Minimal Constraints

▪ 51 lots have a single dwelling, with the potential to accommodate additional capacity via dual occupancy.

▪ Vacant land total 163,873m2 and is currently undergoing subdivision construction.

Capacity:







Assume 0.5:1 FSR

0 dwellings

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7.3.4. "Rainbow Drive" Precinct

Table 38: "Rainbow Drive" Precinct

Figure 64: "Rainbow Drive" Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: RU5 Village and R2 Low Density Residential

Minimal Constraints

▪ 137 lots are zoned RU5 Village. Of these lots, 1 lot of 2,700m2 is vacant. 134 lots have a single dwelling, with capacity for additional low-density development. 2 lots have dual occupancy.

▪ 29 lots are zoned R2 Low Density Residential. Of these, 23 lots are vacant (those along Echidna Place). The other 6 lots have a single dwelling, with capacity for further development such as dual occupancy.

▪ The lot in the south east corner of the precinct is zoned environmental management which permits mainly dwelling house developments.

Capacity:







Assume 0.5:1 FSR

0 dwellings

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7.3.5. "The Crack" Precinct

Table 39: "The Crack" Precinct

Figure 65: "The Crack" Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: R1 General Residential and R2 Low Density Residential

Minimal Constraints

▪ 124 lots are zoned R1. Of these, 9 lots are currently vacant, including the lot to the south west of the precinct which has also been identified as Snowy Hydro Lands.

▪ 72 lots zoned R1 have a single dwelling, and therefore capacity for additional development. A further 43 lots have multiple dwellings such as apartment blocks and are unlikely to have potential additional development capacity.

▪ 58 lots are zoned R2. Only 1 of these lots is vacant. 49 lots have a single dwelling and therefore capacity for additional development.

▪ 9 lots zoned R2 have multiple dwellings in the form of apartment blocks or townhouses, and are unlikely to have further development potential.

Capacity:





Total (dwellings/dual occupancy)

390 dwellings


Assume 0.5:1 FSR

18.5 ha R1 zoned land

74,000 sqm (80% efficiency)


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7.3.6. "Lower Gippsland Street" Precinct

Table 40: "Lower Gippsland Street" Precinct

Figure 66: "Lower Gippsland Street" Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: R1 General Residential, R2 Low Density Residential, and B2 Local Centre

Minimal Constraints

▪ 129 lots are zoned R1. Of these, only 3 lots are currently vacant. 103 lots have a single dwelling and therefore have potential for additional development. 23 lots have multiple dwellings, including apartments and townhouses, and these lots are considered to have minimal to no additional capacity for development.

▪ 35 lots are zoned R2. One of these lots is the Anglican Church, which has a lot size of 5,135m2.

▪ 26 lots zoned R2 have single dwellings and therefore have additional capacity for development. 8 lots have multiple dwellings, and therefore limited capacity for further development.

▪ 8 lots are zoned B2 Local Centre and may have capacity for residential premises above existing shopfronts.

Capacity:







Assume 0.5:1 FSR

21 ha R1 and B2 zoned land



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7.3.8. "Highview Estate and Upper Gippsland Street" Precinct

Table 42: "Highview Estate and Upper Gippsland Street" Precinct

Figure 68: "Highview Estate and Upper Gippsland Street" Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: R1 General Residential, R2 Low Density Residential

Minimal Constraints

▪ 68 lots are zoned R1. Of these, 21 lots are currently vacant. 14 lots have a single dwelling and therefore have potential for additional development. 33 lots have multiple dwellings, including apartments and townhouses, and these lots are considered to have minimal to no additional capacity for development.

▪ 212 lots are zoned R2. 32 lots zoned R2 are currently vacant. Of these, the two largest lots total 63,254m2. They are adjacent to each other and in total have capacity to be subdivided into 90 lots.

▪ 121 lots zoned R2 have single dwellings and therefore have additional capacity for development. 59 lots have multiple dwellings, and therefore limited capacity for further development.

Capacity:







Assume 0.5:1 FSR

6.5 ha R1 zoned land



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7.3.11. “Station North” Precinct

Table 45: “Station North” Precinct

Figure 71: “Station North” Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: RU1 Primary Production, R5 Large Lot Residential

Minimal constraints

▪ 420,579m2 is zoned R5, and is mostly vacant land. This area could generate 140 lots under existing planning controls.

▪ 132,086m2 is currently zoned RU1.

▪ The remainder of the lot is zoned E3 Environmental Management, which only permits dwelling houses.

Capacity:

▪ 140 single dwelling/lots






Assume 0.5:1 FSR

0

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7.3.13. Lakewood Estate

Table 47: Lakewood Estate Precinct

Figure 73: “The High Country Estate” Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

Total precinct area: 266 ha


Zoning: R5 Large Lot Residential and RU1 Primary Production

Minimal constraints

▪ The precinct comprises approximately 107 dwellings/lots.

▪ The R5 Zoned land comprises 1 allotment with a minimum lot size of 400 ha. The RU1 zoned land has a minimum lot size of 40 hectares. There is therefore minimal potential in this precinct.

▪ The minimum lot size for this precinct would need to be reduced, to allow for additional capacity.

Capacity

▪ 1 dwelling

▪ 1 dual occupancy dwelling

Existing dwellings 107 dwellings/lots




Assume 0.5:1 FSR

0

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7.3.15. “Cobbin Estate” Precinct

Table 49: “Cobbin Estate” Precinct

Figure 75: “Cobbin Estate” Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: R5 Large Lot Residential

Minimal constraints

Capacity:

▪ All existing lots are single dwellings. Some lots, approximately 11, are large enough (greater than 5 ha) for subdivision to 2 lots. All lots have potential capacity for further development such as dual occupancy.

▪ 11 lots are vacant.

▪ Lots also have capacity for additional dual occupancy capacity.

Existing dwellings 52 dwellings/lots


Total (dwellings/dual occupancy) 136 dwellings/lots


Assume 0.5:1 FSR

0

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7.3.16. “Barry Way South” Precinct

Table 50: “Barry Way South” Precinct

Figure 76: “Barry Way South” Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: 33 ha RU1 Primary Production; the remainder is E2 Environmental Conservation so has been excluded from this assessment

Minimal constraints

Capacity:

▪ If rezoned to large lot residential, could generate 111 lots of 3000 sqm (within land currently zoned RU1).

▪ 2 dual occupancy dwellings.





Assume 0.5:1 FSR

0 dwellings

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7.3.17. High Country Estate Precinct

Figure 77: High Country Estate Precinct (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)



Zoning: R5 Large Lot Residential

Minimal constraints

Capacity:

▪ 1 vacant lot.

▪ Capacity of additional dual occupancy dwellings.





Assume 0.5:1 FSR

0 dwellings

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7.3.18. Additional Capacity

There are currently two Planning Proposals (PP) being assessed by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. If approved, they are capable of increasing the capacity of the study area by approximately 18 dwellings. Given the zoning and lot sizes, an additional 18 dual occupancy dwellings could be accommodated under the proposed controls.

Table 51: Additional Capacity

Dwelling house/lot Dual Occupancy

Part Lot 32 DP 1118132 Barry Way Jindabyne 12 12

461 Barry Way, Moonbah 6 6

7.3.19. Total Capacity – Detached Dwellings and Dual Occupancy

In summary, based on existing controls, the study area has an existing capacity of approximately 2,613 dwelling in the form of both single detached dwellings and dual occupancy dwellings. Any dual occupancy development is, however, subject to the land being adequately serviced with a sewerage reticulation, pursuant to Clause 4.1A of the Snowy River Local Environmental Plan 2013.

When capacity under PPs are included, there is an additional capacity of 18 dwellings/lots and 18 dual occupancy dwellings.

Table 52: Summary of estimated no. of dwellings

No. of dwellings (estimation)

Existing dwellings 1,438

Additional capacity 2,613

Total (dwellings/dual occupancy) 4,051

*the above data are estimations only, based on data publicly available.

7.3.20. Total Capacity – Multi Unit Dwellings

To calculate the number of apartments/townhouses, the following methodology was used:

▪ The area of zoned land which could accommodate apartments/townhouses was calculated.

▪ An 80% efficiency rates was applied to the land to take into account developable land.

▪ The majority of the land within the study area does not have an FSR. An FSR of 0.5:1 was therefore adopted.

▪ It was assumed that the average apartment/townhouse size is 100 sqm.

Based on the above methodology, assuming all of the existing zoned land was redeveloped, the study area could accommodate approximately 2,547 apartments/townhouses. This however is a high-level estimation and does not take into account many factors such as urban design, height, setbacks and detailed design. Council’s LEP also requires residential flat buildings to be located on a minimum lot size of 1,050 within the RU5 Zone. Some allotments may therefore require amalgamation to achieve compliance.

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7.3.21. Main Findings

▪ The study area has an approximate capacity of 2,613 dwellings.

▪ Assuming all zoned land is redeveloped, the study area could accommodate approximately 2,547 townhouses/apartments.

▪ The residential zones permit a broad range of development types. All residential zones permit dual occupancy developments. While this encourages additional dwelling capacity within the study area, it could strain the infrastructure network, as it promotes segmented rather than concentrated growth.

▪ “Precinct 3 – Kunama Drive Precinct” and “Precinct 8 – Highview Estate and Upper Gippsland St Precinct” holds a significant percentage of the available capacity i.e. a combined 45% of new dwellings/lots and 37% of new dual occupancy dwellings.

▪ “Precinct 1 – Jerrara Drive Precinct” in East Jindabyne has a large amount of vacant and subdivided land, specifically 23 lots, despite being connected to town services such as water and sewer. This was evident during the site visits undertaken and the significant amount of vacant land currently on the market for sale. Potential reasons for the low construction and take-up rates in this precinct could be due to the high construction costs and the lack of funding for acquisition and construction from the financial institutions.

▪ There is a significant quantum of capacity for dual occupancy dwellings within the study area. This is due to the majority of the land use zones permitting such a development. Over recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the amount of dual occupancies being approved and constructed. Many permanent residents, in particular, reside in Jindabyne due to its rural setting and context. We therefore anticipate that such developments will become more popular within central locations, in close proximity to the centre, rather than on the outskirts Jindabyne and other surrounding towns.

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8. HOUSING MARKET (DEMAND) ANALYSIS – PERMANENT ACCOMMODATION

8.1. Future dwelling production

Approximately 184 dwellings were approved since 2009, primarily within the centre of Jindabyne (refer to Figure 78, and within Jindabyne East and Tyrolean Village. 39% of the dwellings approved were single detached dwellings, 31% were multi-unit dwellings such as townhouses and residential flat buildings and remaining 30% were dual occupancy (refer to Table 53).

Table 53: Dwelling approvals (Source: Snowy Monaro Regional Council)

Dwelling type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Detached 12 12 12 2 9 10 8 2 1 3

Dual Occupancy 5 11 2 2 5 6 8 - 2 15

Multi-unit - - 5 4 5 10 3 6 6 18

Total 17 23 19 8 19 26 19 8 9 36

*Approvals data for 2627 postcode *Assumptions made for incomplete data, such as when no yield available for multi-unit developments

Figure 78: Dwelling approvals (Source: EMAP Consulting, 2019)

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Approximately 178 dwellings were constructed since 2009. 60% of these dwellings were detached dwellings, 21% were multi-unit housing and 19% were dual occupancy. 2017 was the peak of construction activity within Jindabyne, with a total of 40 dwellings being constructed (refer to Table 54).

Table 54: Dwelling completions (Source: Snowy Monaro Regional Council)

Dwelling type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Detached 7 6 18 11 9 13 12 14 11 5

Dual Occupancy - 4 - 4 5 4 2 7 6 2

Multi-unit - - - - - 5 - 8 23 2

Total 7 10 18 15 14 22 14 29 40 9

*Completions data for 2627 postcode *Assumptions made for incomplete data, such as when no yield available for multi-unit developments

Table 55 outlines an estimation of the likely take up rates or completions for different residential typologies within Jindabyne. Given the varying quantum of completions over the last 10 years, the take up rates have been based on the completion data for the period between 2014 and 2018.

It is estimated that detached dwellings will be the most common dwelling type, with approximately 11 detached dwellings being constructed per year.

Table 55: Take up rates

Dwelling type Dwellings/year

Detached 11

Dual Occupancy 4

Multi-unit 8

Total 23

*Based on 5-year average completion average

Table 56 summarises the major development activity (approved and under construction) within Jindabyne and the surrounding area. Large lot residential is the major contributor to development activity, with approximately 268 dwellings in the pipeline over the next 17 years.

Table 56: Major Development Activity (Source: https://profile.id.com.au, accessed on 3 April 2019)

Site No. of dwellings Anticipated completion

1 Twynam Street, Jindabyne 60 dwellings 2012-2020

2 The Ridge Estate (Kunama Drive) 25 dwellings 2012-2028

3 Moonbah-Jindabyne Remnant Greenfield

25 dwellings 2012-2034

4 Highview Estate Jindabyne 22 dwellings 2017-2023

5 Barry Way Future Residential 22 dwellings 2020-2025

https://profile.id.com.au/

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6 Kosciuszko Road - General Residential


7 Kosciuszko Road - Low Density Residential


8 Kosciuszko Road - Large Lot Residential


9 47-53 Kunama Drive Future Residential


Over the next 10 years Jindabyne is forecast to produce approximately 222 dwellings. This is based on the approvals, completion and current major development activity within the area. The highest level of production is expected in 2020, when many of the region’s major development activity is expected to peak.

Table 57: Dwelling type forecast

Dwelling type 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Detached 12 16 12 14 11 11 13 11 11 11

Dual Occupancy 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Multi-unit 8 8 8 8 8 4 4 4 4 4

Total 24 28 24 26 23 19 21 19 19 19

8.1.1. Gap Analysis

To work out the number of projected dwellings, the projected population was divided by 1.47, the average number of people per households in 2016. It should be noted that this average differs to the household size of 2.4, as stated by ABS in 2016, to account for the quantum of unoccupied dwellings which skews the projected results.

To accommodate the projected population, it is estimated that the region will require approximately 5,846 to 6,099 dwellings by 2036 (refer to Table 58), 1,036 to 1,289 dwellings over the 20-year period, or an average of 52 to 65 dwellings per year.

Additionally, it is estimated that the study area will require between 2,689 and 2,805 dwellings by 2036.

Table 58 also summarises the forecast projected increase in number of dwellings, by dwelling type, based on the recommended dwelling split, outlined in Section 13.1.3 of this study.

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Table 58: Estimated projected dwellings

Jindabyne -Berridale SA2

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

Population 7,071 7,071 7,383 7,414 7,784 7,896 8,217 8,442 8,593 8,965

Dwellings 4,810 4,810 5,022 5,044 5,295 5,371 5,590 5,743 5,846 6,099

Forecast Dwelling Split (increase per 5 years)

Detached 106 117 109 131 88 111 51 71

Dual Occupancy

42 47 82 98 118 149 128 178

Multi-unit 64 70 82 98 80 111 77 107

Total Increase/year

212 233 273 328 295 371 256 356

Study Area* 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036


Population 2,970 2,970 3,101 3,114 3,269 3,316 3,451 3,546 3,609 3,765

Dwellings 2,213 2,213 2,310 2,320 2,436 2,471 2,571 2,642 2,689 2,805

Forecast Dwelling Split (increase per 5 years)

Detached 49 54 50 60 41 51 24 33

Dual Occupancy 20 21 38 45 54 68 59 82

Multi-unit 29 32 38 45 41 51 35 49

Total Increase/year 98 107 125 151 135 171 118 164

*It is assumed that the population and dwelling comprise 42% and 46% of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region, respectively. The projected population/dwellings for the study area are rough estimates and should be considered indicative only.

Assuming the take-up rate of 23 dwellings per year continues, it is expected that there will be a gap of 29 to 42 dwellings per year, within the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region. Within the study area, there is an estimated gap of up to 7 dwelling per year.

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Table 59: Dwelling gap analysis

Number of dwellings

Average per year

Number of dwellings

Average per year

Jindabyne – Berridale SA1 Study Area**

Existing dwellings 2016 4,810 2,213

Constructed dwellings 23* 23*

Projected dwellings 5,846 to 6,099 2,689 to 2,805

Growth 1,036 to 1,289 52 to 65 476 to 592 24 to 30

Gap 29 to 42 Up to 7

* 5-year average for 2627 postcode

** It is assumed that the dwellings of the study area comprise 46% of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region. The calculations for the study area are rough estimates and should be considered indicative only.

Based on an analysis of existing planning controls, the study area of Jindabyne has a capacity for approximately 2,613 dwellings.

There is therefore sufficient capacity to accommodate the anticipated growth projected. It is therefore necessary to consider incentives and feasibility of planning controls to encourage further development within the region, to accommodate the projected demand over the next 20-years.

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9. HOUSING MARKET (DEMAND) ANALYSIS – VISITOR ACCOMMODATION

9.1. Forecast

As previously stated in this report, by 2036 the Jindabyne-Berridale region is expected to accommodate a peak visitor population of between 40,868 to 44,955 people. It should be noted that this is a high-level estimate, based on expected growth outlined by Tourism Research Australia. Growth is anticipated to be highly dependent on factors such as snow fall during the peak winter seasons.

To forecast the number of beds required, data from Destination NSW was used, to determine an average split between groups of travellers. Using data from 2018, 17% of visitors will be travelling alone, while 35% will be travelling with friends/family (refer to Table 60).

Table 60: No. of bedroom assumptions

Group Estimated split Assumed No. of bedrooms Assumed No. of people per dwelling

Travelling alone 17% 1 bedroom 1

Adult couple 25% 1 bedroom 2

Family group 23% 2 bedrooms 4

Friends/relatives 35% 3 bedrooms 4

Table 61 summarises the estimated number of dwellings and beds required by 2036, based on the above assumptions. By 2036, the region will require approximately 9,161 to 10,077 dwellings to cater for the anticipated visitors. Additionally, it is estimated that the study area will require approximately 3,115 to 3,426 dwellings. This however is a high-level estimate and does not take into account factors such as bedrooms which comprise of multiple beds and visitors sleeping on couches etc.

Table 61: Estimated visitor dwelling/beds forecast


2016 2021 2026 2031 2036


Beds 13,955 15,350 16,835 18,519 20,349 22,383 23,933 26,327 27,484 30,232

Dwellings 4,652 5,117 5,612 6,173 6,783 7,461 7,978 8,776 9,161 10,077

Study Area Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

Beds 4,745 5,219 5,742 6,296 6,919 7,610 8,137 8,951 9,345 10,279

Dwellings 1,582 1,740 1,908 2,099 2,306 2,537 2,712 2,984 3,115 3,426

*It is assumed that the visitor population of the study area comprises 34% of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region. The calculations for the study area are rough estimates and should be considered indicative only.

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9.2. Kosciuszko National Park Plan of Management

The Kosciuszko Nation Park Plan of Management has been prepared to provide a framework of objectives, principles and policies to guide the long-term management of the park. The plan outlines that the number of beds within the park must not exceed 10,433 beds. The maximum number of beds for each resort within the park include:

▪ Perisher Range Management Unit by – 4,952 beds;

▪ Thredbo Management Unit – 4,820 beds;

▪ Charlotte Pass Management Unit – 611 beds; and

▪ Selwyn Management Unit – 50 beds (essential servicing staff only including a minimum of 4 beds for the volunteer ski patrol).

We have been informed that Thredbo ski resort has approximately 420 beds available for further development whilst Perisher has approximately 800 beds available for further development. However, the allocated beds in Perisher have been approved for many years but have not been developed. Both Perisher and Thredbo resorts are higher end resort accommodation and under leasehold title (not freehold) and whilst Thredbo is a year-round resort, Perisher at present is predominantly a winter only resort. Due to the high servicing costs (e.g. management, cleaning, etc.), not all tourist beds in Thredbo are available year-round. Many of the smaller accommodation places are only available during the peak periods.

9.3. Approvals and Completions

The Snowy River Local Environmental Plan 2013 defines tourist and visitor accommodate as:

a building or place that provides temporary or short-term accommodation on a commercial basis, and includes any of the following:

(a) backpackers’ accommodation,

(b) bed and breakfast accommodation,

(c) farm stay accommodation,

(d) hotel or motel accommodation,

(e) serviced apartments,

but does not include:

(f) camping grounds, or

(g) caravan parks, or

(h) eco-tourist facilities.

Approximately 236 visitor accommodation dwellings/applications were approved since 2009. 50% were “change of use” applications, most of which were changing the use from residential to visitor accommodation. 34% were multi-unit dwellings (such as serviced apartments), 12% detached dwellings and the remaining 4% dual occupancy (refer to Table 53).

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Table 62: Visitor accommodation approvals (Source: Snowy Monaro Regional Council)

Dwelling type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Change of use to tourist use

11 5 11 7 9 11 10 19 21 14

Dwelling 2 - 1 1 1 1 - 4 18

Dual Occupancy - - - - - - - 2 - 8

Multi-unit dwellings

6 3 11 1 7 16 1 5 14 16

Total 19 8 23 9 17 28 11 26 39 56

*Approvals data for 2627 postcode *Assumptions made for incomplete data

Many of the applications being approved were located within the Jindabyne centre, predominately along the perimeter of the centre and also to the east (refer to Figure 79). As previously discussed in this study, the east of the centre comprises mostly older housing stock from the 1960s and 1970s. Given the age of the dwellings, they tend to not meet the housing expectations of permanent residents and tend to be more suitable for other uses such as casual workers and also as outlined in this data, tourist accommodation.

Approximately 46 visitor dwellings were completed since 2009. The majority of the completions were multi-unit dwellings (refer to Table 54). The completion data did not record “change of use” applications, most likely due to these applications generally not requiring construction or occupation certificates.

Table 63: Visitor accommodation completions (Source: Snowy Monaro Regional Council)

Dwelling type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Single Detached Dwelling

- - - - - - - - - 3

Dual Occupancy - - - - - - - 2 - -

Multi-unit dwellings 11 2 - 5 4 2 2 7 6 2

Total 11 2 - 5 4 2 2 9 6 5

*Completions data for 2627 postcode *Assumptions made for incomplete data

Based on the completions data, there is a steady rate of tourist accommodation being completed within Jindabyne. From information provided by Council at the time of preparing this report, there were a further 9 applications to change the use of a dwelling to tourist accommodation, 1 application for a tourist dwelling and 1 application for a hostel.

Using the 5-year historical average, without consideration of any major tourist developments or change of use applications being proposed, it is anticipated that approximately 5 developments will be released to the market every year.

As previously stated, the Jindabyne-Berridale region will require approximately 9,161 to 10,077 dwellings to accommodate the forecast growth by 2036. Additional capacity may be required to accommodate the

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forecast visitor growth, however it is assumed that many of the forecast visitors will stay outside the study area, within the national park and ski resorts.

Figure 79: Tourist approvals

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10. HOUSING MARKET (DEMAND) ANALYSIS – OTHER ACCOMMODATION

10.1. Non-Resident Workers

As outlined previously in this report, by 2036 the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region is expected to accommodate between 2,718 to 2,990 non-resident workers.

From the interviews undertaken with real estate agents and accommodation providers, it was noted that non-resident workers only stay within Jindabyne for a short amount of time and therefore do not require the same residential requirements as permanent residents i.e. it is assumed that they would be happy to share bedrooms and amenities.

For this reason, to calculate the forecast demand for dwellings, it is assumed that each bedroom could accommodate 3 non-resident workers.

Assuming a dwelling comprises an average of 3 bedrooms, it is anticipated that the Jindabyne-Berridale region will require approximately 302 to 332 dwellings. Additionally, it is estimated that the study area will require an estimated 226 to 249 dwellings.

Table 64: Non-resident workers forecast


2016 2021 2026 2031 2036


Population 1,380 1,518 1,665 1,831 2,012 2,214 2,367 2,603 2,718 2,990

Dwellings 153 169 185 203 224 246 263 289 302 332

Study Area


Population 1,035 1,139 1,249 1,374 1,509 1,660 1,775 1,953 2,038 2,242

Dwellings 115 127 139 153 168 184 197 217 226 249

* It is assumed that the number of non-resident workers in the study area comprises 75% of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region. The calculations for the study area are rough estimates and should be considered indicative only.


There are two main factors which should be considered when analysing the demand for seniors housing, including:

▪ The number of residents aged 55 years and over. This may increase the demand for independent living unit accommodation.

▪ The number of residents aged 85 years and over. This may increase the demand for residential aged care facilities.

Both "independent living units" and "residential aged care facilities" are types of "seniors housing".

Table 65 provides a breakdown of forecast population growth for the over 55 demographic population within the Jindabyne-Berridale region. By 2036, there will be an estimated 2,663 people aged over 55, which is a 56% increase when compared to 2016. The population aged over 85 is expected to increase to 223 people

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by 2036, which is a 278% increase compared to 2016. Such high levels of growth, even when based on a relatively low population, are still significant given the requirements to support this demographic profile, including the increase provision of not only aged care accommodation, but also appropriate services and infrastructure.

Table 65: Over 55 forecast


2016 2021 2026 2031 2036


55 to 85 population

1,705 1,705 2,009 2,013 2,278 2,294 2,499 2,528 2,610 2,663

85 and over population

59 59 93 94 113 113 156 158 221 223

Study Area Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

55 to 85 population

597 597 703 705 797 803 875 885 914 932

85 and over population

21 21 33 33 40 40 55 55 77 78

* It is assumed that the over 55 population of the study area comprises 35% of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region. The calculations for the study area are rough estimates and should be considered indicative only.

The local council offers two aged care options, in Berridale and Cooma, for seniors within the local government area. Since 2011, only 1 seniors housing development was approved within Jindabyne. It is located along Barry Way, Jindabyne and accommodates 2 detached and 26 semi-detached dwellings and a community building. From publicly available information and aerial data, it appears that this development has yet to be constructed.

To reiterate, the majority of residents aged over 55 in the LGA, will likely choose to remain in their own homes as they age. For residents aged over 85, they will most likely need appropriate accommodation and support services. If additional accommodation is not provided locally, or if families are unable to take care of ageing family members, people over 85 will likely need to be relocated to facilities in other major centres, such as in Sydney or Canberra, which is not an ideal scenario.

By 2036, there will be a total of between 221 to 223 residents aged over 85. Given no aged care is currently provided, an additional 221 to 223 aged care beds will be required in the region or an estimated 77 to 78 beds within the study area.

10.3. Affordable Housing

Affordability issues within Jindabyne range from households in mortgage/rental stress, seasonal workers and visitors who cannot afford appropriate accommodation. As part of the interviews conducted, it is noted that many visitors to Jindabyne spend their money on ski passes and cannot afford suitable accommodation in close proximity to the ski resorts. They end up sleeping in their cars in isolated locations or in local parks and use Council facilities such as toilets and picnic shelters.

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Affordable housing is housing that meets the needs of a range of low to moderate income households and priced, so they are able to meet their other essential basic living costs.

Households are identified as being in housing stress when income earners are paying more than 30% of their household income on accommodation. Rent stress could be identified as more significant than mortgage stress, given household owners generally also own equity in a property.

Table 66 outlines that in 2016, approximately 273 households out of approximately 4,700 dwellings within the Jindabyne - Berridale region, were in mortgage stress and 381 households were in rental stress. As a combined total this represents 14% of the households in the region.

Table 66: Housing Stress, 2016 Census (Source: ABS, available at https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/101031016?opendocument accessed 29 May 2019)

Mortgage Stress (a) Rental Stress (b) Housing Stress (c=a+b)

Jindabyne - Berridale 273 5.8% 381 8.1% 654 14%

To calculate a forecast projection for future properties with household stress, an average was taken from 2011 and 2016 census data. Using this methodology, the average number of households with mortgage stress is 6.9% and the average of households with rental stress is 7.8%. It should be noted that this is an average only and does not take into consideration other matters which may affect affordability, such as economic conditions.

The region is expected to accommodate approximately 8,593 to 8,965 people by 2036, translating to approximately 5,846 to 6,099 dwellings. Table 67 outlines that when the average %s are applied to the forecasted population, there will be a total of approximately 859 to 897 households under housing stress within the region or an estimated 361 to 377 households within the study area, and may require assistance in the form of either government payments or affordable housing to assist with living and housing expenses.

Table 67: Household stress, 2021 to 2036


2021 2026 2031 2036

Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

Mortgage stress 347 348 365 371 386 396 403 421

Rental stress 392 393 413 419 436 448 456 476

Total households 738 741 778 790 822 844 859 897

Study Area Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

Mortgage stress 146 146 153 156 162 166 169 177

Rental stress 165 165 173 176 183 188 192 200

Total households 310 311

327 332 345 354 361 377

* It is assumed that the number of households in stress in the study area comprises 42% of the Jindabyne-Berridale SA2 region. The calculations for the study area are rough estimates and should be considered indicative only.

https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/101031016?opendocument

https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/101031016?opendocument

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11. CATALYST SITE IDENTIFICATION

Catalyst sites provide opportunities for integrated developments on large sites and provide opportunities to increase dwelling capacity, to meet dwelling targets for the region, over both the short and long term. They also, in particular within infill locations, provide opportunities for urban renewal and allow for non-residential uses to be provided, such as new commercial and retail developments, supporting the local economy though the creation of new jobs.

Sites identified in this section have been selected based on a constraint analysis, using the sieve mapping technique outlined in Section 11.1 and also the proximity to the town centre. Consideration has also been given to views of Lake Jindabyne, as this is evident to also play a role in the viable and desirable development for both tourist and permanent residents.

11.1. Constraint Analysis - Methodology

The following maps were collated for the purpose of this report:

▪ EPI – Riparian Land;

▪ EPI – Wetlands;

▪ EPI – Heritage;

▪ EPI – Scenic Protection;

▪ EPI – Terrestrial Biodiversity;

▪ Endangered Ecological Communities;

▪ Presence of Threatened Species records;

▪ Bushfire Prone Land;

▪ Growth Structure Plan constraints: open space, visual protection areas, developed areas,

All of the available data was joined with the cadastre data within the project study area to determine the availability of land for possible future development.

Consideration has been given the topography of the land. However, for the purpose of this housing study, the topography of the land is seen as an incentive to development, rather than a constraint, as it has the potential to maximise views, which is desirable to development in this locality.

A scoring system was applied to determine the level of constraints per site, with a “total” score calculated by adding each of the individual constraints scores. Scores range from 0 to 6, where “0” represents land with no identified constraints, and “6” represents land with a high number of constraints.

11.2. Constraints Analysis - Results

Appendix 3 presents the detailed results of the constraints analysis. The analysis outlines that when all constraint layers are applied to land, it excludes the majority of the land within the study area. This, however, is not a realistic outcome to development, as many constraints such as flooding and significant trees, could be resolved through design techniques at Development Application stage.

Figure 80 provide a summary of the least constraints land, which is along the periphery of the study area. Providing new areas of housing in such locations is not recommended from a planning perspective. Firstly, it encourages a segmented approach to development, away from the services and infrastructure already available within the centre of Jindabyne. It places a significant burden on government agencies to provide additional infrastructure in isolated locations, which would likely be passed onto developers through development contributions, ultimately impacting the viability of development. Secondly, it encourages urban sprawl, increasing the reliance on private vehicles for residents and tourist to travel around the region. Urban sprawl also has the potential to impact the region’s rural and scenic quality, which is highly valued.

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It is therefore important to investigate other lands within the study area for future growth. Table 68 and Figure 81 provide a summary of the key site, which have been selected based on their potential to accommodate growth. These sites, while affected by multiple constraint layers, have potential to accommodate residential dwellings, due to their single land ownership, significant size and ideal locations for development. Any constraints which impact these lands, such as heritage, vegetation and scenic protection, could be dealt with at either Planning Proposal or Development Application stage, through design technique and careful development controls which could form the basis of site specific development control plans, to carefully manage the careful development within these areas.

Infill development within the core of the town centre is also encouraged to accommodate additional higher density development, such as apartments and shop top housing development. From consultation within industry experts, it was noted that there is insufficient supply of 3-bedroom apartments. Such development could be accommodated within the existing centre of Jindabyne, through a review of planning controls and developer incentives to provide a more appropriate mix of housing, in particular to accommodate the needs of permanent residents.

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11.3. Staging and Dwelling Yields

This section provides a summary of the potential yields and staging of the catalyst sites identified as part of the study.

11.3.1. Methodology – yield calculation

In order to calculate the yield of the catalyst sites the following methodology was used.

▪ An efficiency rate of 85% was applied to the site area to account for new roads and infrastructure which may be required to support the subdivision and intensification of the land.

▪ The residual site area was then divided by 700 sqm, given this is the average minimum lot size for urban development within the study area. Some land may be smaller or larger, given the site constraints and topography.

▪ For large lot rural residential development, the residual site area was divided by 3,000 sqm.

It must be noted that the methodology used does not take into consideration the detailed site constraints. Some sites are burdened by several constraints which require specialist consultant input from ecologists, engineers and architects, to confirm and calculate the developable site area.

Additionally, the yield calculation only takes into consideration the potential lot yields. Depending on the future zoning, some land may be able to cater for higher density development such as dual occupancy, townhouses and apartments, which would see an increase in yields, in certain locations.

11.3.2. Staging

As outlined in previous sections of this report, there is sufficient, appropriately zoned land available, to accommodate the forecast permanent population and dwelling growth within the study area. Despite the availability of land, there is limited take-up of vacant land, due to the high construction costs in Jindabyne, given its isolated location and lack of financing being provided from the banks.

It is therefore important to identify catalyst sites, which are desirable and financially feasible, to accommodate development.

In the short term, it is important to investigate opportunities to cater for a mix of dwelling typologies within infill locations, including seniors housing and higher density residential accommodation, in areas such as the existing town centre, where existing infrastructure and services are available to accommodate an intensification of land uses.

Land identified in the other precincts, has been identified given its extension of the existing urban areas. These precincts could accommodate large lot rural residential development, if there is demand in the medium to long term. Any infrastructure requirements, such as sewerage and water, should however also be self-funded by developers.

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11.3.3. Development within surrounding towns

From the consultation undertaken with industry experts, it was noted that Berridale, which is located 30 km to the east of Jindabyne, is becoming a popular location for permanent residents to reside, given it is separated from the high tourist activity of Jindabyne centre. Given its popularity, according to real estate agents, it is becoming increasingly difficult for residents and casual workers to find rental properties and properties to purchase to accommodate the demand.

There is therefore potential to review the zoning of the Berridale centre, to accommodate an intensification of land uses and additional dwelling capacity. The centre of Berridale is zoned RU5 Village, which permits all types of residential accommodation, with the R5 zone surrounding the core of the centre. One potential recommendation is to expand the boundary of the RU5 area and to decrease the minimum lot size, to allow for a broader variety of land uses, such as town house developments.

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Dalgety and Adaminaby are located approximately 36km and 85km from Jindabyne respectively. Given the distance and the relatively small population of each centre, we were informed by real estate agents, that they there is limited demand for properties within these towns.

Dalgety and Berridale are roughly similar distances to Jindabyne. However, Berridale benefits from being located closer to Cooma, where a number of services and employment opportunities are located. Dalgety, on the other hand, is located to the south west of Jindabyne, which does not have the same positive locational attributes.

Given the limited demand for housing in both Dalgety and Adaminaby, we do not believe that there is any opportunity to cater for increased development in these towns within the long term.

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12. HOUSING POLICY

12.1. Short-term Accommodation

As outlined in this study, short-term accommodation is removing properties from the market, which would alternatively be used for long term leases for permanent residents, consequently contributing to affordability concerns in the region.

It is also generating uncertainty for tenants and owners to secure long-term housing, specifically in areas where peak prices are higher than average. Therefore, increasing the supply for one group of housing will reduce the options for other groups.

The NSW government, as detailed below, has proposed a number of mechanisms to try and combat and manage the short-term accommodation market.

There have been attempts to reform planning legislation to regularise the provision of short-term accommodation. In 2016, a NSW Parliamentary committee recommended amendments to planning legislation to consider appropriate definitions for accommodation types, including “short-term rental accommodation” in environmental planning instruments, such as Local Environmental Plans. It also considered appropriate amendments to the exempt provisions of the State Environmental Planning Policy (Exempt and Complying Development Codes) 2008 (Codes SEPP), subject to appropriate thresholds and notification requirements.

In 2018, the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment outlined that a new definition of “short term rental accommodation” would be introduced. The table below sets provisions currently being considered, for dwellings for the purpose of "short-term accommodation", to be rented out per year:

Table 70: Short term rental accommodation provisions (Source: Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, 2019)

Host present Host not present

Exempt

(not on bushfire prone land)

365 days/year ▪ Greater Sydney – up to 180 days/year

▪ Outside Greater Sydney (e.g. Jindabyne) – 180 to 365 days/year, depending on Council requirements.

Complying

(on bushfire prone land)

Not applicable ▪ Greater Sydney – up to 180 days/year

▪ Outside Greater Sydney (e.g. Jindabyne) - 180 to 365 days/year, depending on Council requirements.

The NSW Government has also proposed a code of conduct for short-term rental accommodation, called the Fair Trading Amendment (Short-term Rental Accommodation) Act 2018 (NSW). The Act applies to all relevant parties, including hosts, guests and website (including Airbnb) and sets out the following:

▪ rights and obligations;

▪ a register short term accommodation premises;

▪ a complaints register administered by NSW Fair Trading; and

▪ explanation of fines and orders for parties that have breached the code.

In terms of implications on the Jindabyne short term housing market, at a minimum, dwellings will be able to be leased for 180 days per year or around 6 months, which is more than the peak winter season for the town. Such provisions will therefore unlikely impact the demand or supply of housing.

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Private regulation

Some strata boards in NSW have introduced by-laws to limit the use of apartments for short term rental accommodation. However recent case law has made such by-laws void.

In NSW the Fair Trading Amendment (Short-term Rental Accommodation) Act 2018 (NSW), allows owners corporations to make, by special resolution, by-laws allowing dwellings to be short-term let only where the premises remains the owner’s principal place of residence. This legislation is enacted but has yet to commence.

Previous Provisions

Prior to the Gazettal of the Snowy River Local Environmental Plan 2013 (LEP 2013), the Snowy River Local Environmental Plan 2007 (LEP 2007) was the relevant Environmental Planning Instrument applicable to the study area.

Under the previous EPI (LEP 2007) specific provisions required that any dwelling being used for short-term accommodation have obtained development consent, if being used for periods up to 3 months. Any dwelling being used for greater than 3 months required a contractual lease to be prepared.

This was based on similar provisions used by both Sutherland and Byron Shire Councils. However, when LEP 2007 was converted to the Standard Instrument LEP, there were no suitable definitions within the standardised dictionary, and it was therefore removed when LEP 2013 was gazetted.

Ministerial Direction

On 11 February 2019, a new ministerial direction was introduced due to the high concentration of short-term rental accommodation in some areas of Byron Shire Council. This direction allows Council to prepare a Planning Proposal, restricting the amount of time dwellings could be used for short-term accommodation. The direction, however, states that “non-hosted short-term rental accommodation periods must not be reduced to be less than 90 days”.

Despite Jindabyne transforming into an all year-round tourist destination, its peak season is still during the three winter months, which equates to approximately 90 days. Applying a similar ministerial direction to the study area, will therefore unlikely impact the demand or supply of housing.

Should a ministerial direction with a shorter threshold, of less than 90 days be applied, it will likely have an impact on the availability of tourist accommodation, impacting the affordability for tourists and placing pressure of the study area to provide more hotel and visitor accommodation.

12.2. Affordable Housing

Approximately 28% of dwellings within the Jindabyne-Berridale region are rented, while this significantly increases to 45% for the Jindabyne urban centre. Increasing demand for rental accommodation is a challenge as it places considerable pressure on the rental market, driving up the rental prices in the local market. Approximately 273 households in the region (out of 4,700 dwellings) are in mortgage stress and 381 households are in rental stress. By 2036, it is anticipated that this will increase to 383 households with mortgage stress and a further 433 households in rental stress, which represents approximately 14.6% of the projected population of the Jindabyne-Berridale region.

The extent to which Council can influence housing affordability is, to a degree limited, as the housing market, including prices and rents are determined, by factors such as incomes, interest rates and taxation policies, etc. Council can, however, provide a supportive planning environment that provides opportunities for more affordable housing by:

▪ Ensuring planning controls are feasible for development and support the supply of smaller dwellings. For example, support and permit a range of dwelling types, such as granny flats and apartments.

▪ Ensuring planning controls are appropriately suited for different locations where households can reduce their cost-of-living expenses. For example, near services within centres.

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▪ Exploring opportunities for land to be subject to State Environmental Planning Policy 70 – Affordable Rental Housing, and

▪ Removing barriers to the provision of smaller, for example minimum lot dimensions and sizes or open space requirements).

The Environmental Planning and Assessment Act enables councils to levy contributions for affordable housing. For this to occur, a local government area must be included within the State Environmental Planning Policy 70 – Affordable Rental Housing (SEPP 70). This requires a council to amend its LEP to reference an affordable rental housing contribution scheme and to levy affordable housing contributions.

In February 2019, SEPP 70 was expanded to include all councils across NSW, including the Snowy Monaro Regional Council.

Introducing an affordable housing contribution to the study area, has the potential for Council to acquire funds from development, and to allocate towards affordable housing projects. Similar levies have been introduced to other Council’s within NSW, such as City of Sydney which just has a levy associated with development within key precincts such as Green Square and Ultimo-Pyrmont.

Given the limited development activity occurring within the study area, it would take some time for Council to acquire sufficient funding, to overcome barriers such as the high price of land and the high construction costs associated with development in this area. Alternatively, a levy could be applied to the greater local government area, rather than just Jindabyne, to provide affordable housing for the greater regional area.

One of the major challenges associated with introducing a new levy is the potential to discourage development and impact the financial viability of development proceeding. For developers to overcome such a challenge, they would ultimately pass the cost onto homeowners, which would as a result, drive up the price of new dwellings, consequently further impacting housing affordability.

Given the relatively recent introduction of the SEPP to wider NSW, it is unknown whether its implementation has been successful outside of Sydney, in more rural and regional locations. Byron Bay Shire has an affordable housing provision in its LEP, which encourages providing affordable housing within the R2, R3, B2 and B4 zones. This provision does not however include any bonus incentives.

From preliminary research into the Byron Bay housing market, properties are significantly more expensive when compared to Jindabyne, which as a result, impacts the feasibility of development, as new product can be sold for a much higher price, to cover construction costs.

To avoid further impacting feasibility, if a levy were to be introduced in Jindabyne, it is recommended that it is accompanied with bonus provisions under the LEP, such as a bonus FSR or height control. Given the majority of the study area does not have an FSR control, a bonus height provision would likely be more suitable.

Alternatively, a more sensible approach would be to discount s7.11 developer contributions and s64 water and sewer contributions which could be offered to any development which incorporates affordable housing.

Such a provisions would incentivise affordable housing being provided, whilst not impacting the financial feasibility of development.

12.3. Affordable Rental Housing

The State Environmental Planning Policy (Affordable Rental Housing) 2009 (ARHSEPP) was introduced on 31 July 2009. The policy’s intent is to facilitate the increased supply and diversity of affordable rental and social housing in NSW.

The ARHSEPP encourages a diverse mix of different residential dwellings, including “boarding houses”, “group homes”, “social housing” and “secondary dwellings”, which is a common typology within the study area, in particular in East Jindabyne.

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Pursuant to the ARHSEPP, “secondary dwellings” are permitted within all residential zones, subject to complying with certain provisions such as 450sqm minimum lot size requirement. Such dwellings cannot result in a floor area of more than 60 sqm, which is a similar size to a studio/one-bedroom apartment.


State Environmental Planning Policy (Housing for Seniors or People with a Disability) 2004 aims to encourage the provision of housing (including residential care facilities) that will increase the supply and diversity of residences that meet the needs of seniors or people with a disability, and make efficient use of existing infrastructure and services.

The SEPP broadens the permissibility of seniors housing to any urban land where residential accommodation is permissible. It also outlines a series of provisions and development standards which must be considered when granting consent to a seniors housing development, including access provisions to services and also ensuring that development is not located on environmentally constrained land.

Any seniors housing development in Jindabyne would need to consider the unique environmental constraints of the region. Jindabyne is significantly constrained by its topography, which would make it difficult for development to comply with some of the SEPP’s access provisions, such as the slope of the land in relation to accessing services and infrastructure. Significant infrastructure upgrades, within the town would be required, such as suitable pedestrian footpaths, crossings and public transportation, to meet the SEPP’s requirements.

12.5. Complying Development

The State Policy for exempt and complying development is contained within the State Environmental Planning Policy (Exempt and Complying Development Codes) 2008 (Codes SEPP).

Low Rise Medium Density Code

The Codes SEPP provides a complying development pathway for specific low scale medium density housing forms: dual occupancies (side-by-side and up-down configurations); terraces; and manor houses. Each of the new housing types are permissible as Complying Development where the broader land use is allowed in the zone. For the study area, a broader range of development types are permissible, such as manor houses and terraces within R1 zoned land.

Where a minimum lot size is not already specified by a Council, the Code sets minimum lot size requirements of 400 sqm for dual occupancies and 600 sqm for terrace and manor houses, which is less than the minimum lot size outlined in Council’s LEP. The Code also has a range of other controls related to minimum lot width, height, setback requirements, landscaped area and dwelling sizes.

Following the release of the Code in July 2018, a temporary deferral was granted to 49 councils until 31 October 2019, include the Snowy Monaro Regional Council. Should the new provisions proceed, it will permit additional medium density development on smaller lot sizes within the study area. Such provisions have the potential to overcome feasibility concerns, as it reduces the need for developers to acquire additional land to comply with the minimum allotment sizes under the LEP.

Greenfield Code

The Greenfield Code applies to land within the Greenfield Housing Code area, specifically land to the west of the Jindabyne town centre (refer to Figure 82). Development for the purpose of a new dwelling house or attached development is permitted as complying development in this area subject to the lot having a minimum lot area of at least 200 sqm.

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Figure 82: Greenfield Housing Code Area (Source: NSW Legislation)

Inland Code

The Inland Code applies to inland Councils including the Snowy Monaro Regional Council. It permits development such as dwelling houses and attached development in rural zones as complying development, subject to the development complying with a range of provisions including a minimum lot size. Development must comply with either the applicable LEP minimum lot size or if no size is applicable a minimum size of 4,000 sqm is applied.

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13. RECOMMENDATIONS

A series of objectives have been developed, to address the housing needs which have been identified as part of the research and consultation phase of this study. These objectives should be actioned with future land use strategic planning, to address the concerns of the local community, whilst accommodating the needs of Jindabyne’s unique environment, population and demographic profile.

13.1. Provide sufficient feasible dwelling capacity and a broad mix of new housing

13.1.1. Encourage urban renewal within infill locations

The urban renewal of infill locations is commonly being undertaken in most cities and towns, as a measure to limit urban sprawl. Most of this development is within inner and middle ring locations. This is due to land and infrastructure for new growth areas, within outer ring locations, being more expensive to develop.

Urban renewal of infill locations is commonly undertaken as:

▪ Redevelopment of existing buildings which have approached the end of their lifecycle.

▪ Development of vacant sites.

▪ Development of underutilised sites, with surplus remaining development potential available.

Jindabyne has many opportunities within the town centre which could not only accommodate urban renewal but also accommodate additional dwelling capacity in the form of residential apartments. Such dwelling typologies would be suitable for a range of population profiles including permanent residents, tourist and casual workers.

The study area comprises two business zones, namely the B1 and B2 zones. Consideration should be given to expanding the permitted uses within these zones, in particular the B2 zone, to permit residential flat buildings and encourage new retail and commercial development on key sites such as the Mitre 10 site.

13.1.2. Consider the economic feasibility of planning controls

The challenge of urban renewal is however the feasibility of redevelopment. The Jindabyne centre comprises existing strata apartment and commercial office buildings. Redevelopment of these properties require a certain uplift in floorspace for the redevelopment to be feasible and to cross-subsidise the high labour and materials costs for such a rural location.

One potential solution to trigger the feasible redevelopment of the centre is to reconsider the development standards such as height and FSR. The centre currently includes a height of up to 12 metres and a FSR of 0.5:1 on some parcels of land, mainly the residential zones. The upper height limit of 12 metres (assuming ground floor retail) permits a building of roughly 3 storeys, which is generally considered not feasible, given the construction costs and BCA requirements associated with redevelopment. Increasing the height and FSR in these locations, would provide a sufficient floorspace uplift and an incentive to the owners of existing buildings to redevelop infill sites.

In some locations, having a FSR may be prohibitive to redevelopment. The use of FSR controls is mainly to measure the value and intensity of development. However, if a block of land or a property in an infill location has a height and suitable setback and landscape controls, a FSR is generally not required for any other purpose. The removal of FSR may therefore be seen as an incentive to promote development and urban renewal.

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Tourist, residents and workers in Jindabyne are currently heavily reliant on the usage of private vehicle to travel to and from destinations. Infill development also has the potential to improve connectivity and accessibility within the town centre. As part of the consultation phase of the study, it was noted that the centre lacked sufficient on-street parking, in particular during the peak tourist seasons. Infill development should also be encouraged to provide parking onsite, rather than relying on on-street parking. This however may impact development feasibility, especially if parking is required in a basement level.

Additionally, the Snowy Monaro LEP applies a minimum allotment size to certain developments (e.g. residential flat buildings within the R1 and RU5 zones are only permissible on allotments greater than 1,050 sqm). Such as a control may also be seen as a barrier to development, as it would require sites to be amalgamated to achieve the minimum allotment size, which may impact development feasibility. The objective of these provisions is to achieve planned densities within certain residential zones. This could alternatively be achieved through the provision of suitable building envelope controls in Council's DCP, such as setbacks, building coverage and landscaped areas, which would limit density, preserve the character of certain areas, whilst providing flexibility to certain development types.

13.1.3. Prepare planning controls that promote a mix of housing types

The existing zoning within the study area permits a wide range of development types, including dwellings houses, dual occupancy, townhouses, residential flat buildings and shop top housing. Correlating development standards, however, also needs to be implemented to encourage a mix of housing typologies. From the consultation undertaken during the preparation of this study, it was noted that Jindabyne is missing 3-bedroom townhouses and apartments, suitable for permanent residents. Based on the historical approval and completion data, which informed the take up rates for development within Jindabyne, by 2021 it is anticipated that the study area will accommodate 50% detached dwellings, 30% multi-unit dwellings and 20% dual occupancy development. To accommodate demand, in particular during peak season months, additional dwellings would be required in central locations to accommodate the varied requirements of Jindabyne’s population. By 2036, it is recommended that the housing priority for the study area is focussed on providing higher density dwellings such as dual occupancy, townhouses and apartments, in central locations (refer to Table 71). The study area has sufficient zoned land to accommodate an increase in dual occupancy development. Additional apartments should be located within the Jindabyne town centre. The majority of the centre has been developed, therefore incentives and triggers would be required to encourage further development and urban renewal of existing land holdings, in the form of increasing density and/or height controls. Additionally, as outlined previously in this report, some of the commercial zoned land could be considered for residential development.

Table 71: Recommended dwelling split

Dwelling type 2021 2026 2031 2036

Detached 50% 40% 30% 20%

Dual Occupancy 20% 30% 40% 50%

Multi-unit 30% 30% 30% 30%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

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13.1.4. Encourage provision of medium and high-density development in centres

Increasing dwelling supply and a diverse mix of housing options is pivotal in improving affordability as more stock is available to the market and different people are more likely to be able to rent or purchase housing which suits their varying circumstances.

Although this may encourage more investors to purchase properties, it will also offer opportunities for local residents to enter into the housing markets, rather than relying on rental properties for accommodation.

Furthermore, provision of higher density development in central locations will discourage urban sprawl and protect the scenic quality and rural character of Jindabyne while accommodating population growth.

Incentives that encourage higher density housing and commercial development within the Jindabyne centre, combining retail, tourist and residential development should be considered. Potential incentives could include:

▪ Reduced or discounted s7.11 contributions under the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 and s64 contributions under the Local Government Act 1993.

▪ Allow for bonus height and Floor Space Ratio provisions in the Local Environmental Plan.

▪ Allow for bonus provisions if 3-bedroom units are included within new developments.

Additionally, medium density housing such as townhouses should be encouraged within other regional centres surrounding Jindabyne, including Berridale. The centre of Berridale is zoned RU5 Village, which permits all types of residential accommodation, with the R5 zone surrounding the core of the centre. One potential recommendation is to expand the boundary of the RU5 area and to decrease the minimum lot size, to allow for a broader variety of land uses, such as town house developments.

Alternatively, Council’s LEP could be amended to permit the Torrens Title subdivision of dual occupancy dwellings, which would be worth more to the market. This has been recently introduced to Council’s within the Sydney Metropolitan area, including Randwick City Council. If a similar provision were to be introduced for the study area, it would allow dual occupancy development (existing and new developments) to be subject to a Torrens Title subdivision, which could be sold for more on the property market, which may as a result, make additional development within the study area to be economically feasible. It would also be easier for developers/landowners to obtain finance, as Torrens Title is viewed as being more attractive and secure to financial institutions.

13.1.5. Consider appropriate zones for “serviced apartments”

Pursuant to Council’s LEP, “serviced apartments” are permissible within the R1, R2 and RU5 zones.

In the local government areas of Sutherland Shire, Byron Shire and Bega Valley, “serviced apartments” are mainly permissible in business zones, including the B2 and B4 zones (refer to Table 72). This is because they are more suited to the activity of business and mixed-use precincts, and to avoid potential land use conflict and amenity impacts associated with residential localities. Additionally, they are restricted in the zones where residential development is undesirable, to avoid being converted into residential apartments.

It is therefore recommended that the permissibility under Council’s LEP is reviewed, to restrict ‘serviced apartments” within business zones, within the Jindabyne town centre.

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Table 72:"Serviced apartment" permissibility

RU5 R3 B1 B2 B3 B4

Sutherland Shire

Byron Shire

Bega Valley

Legend

Permissible

Prohibited

13.2. Balance development with protection of Jindabyne’s unique scenic rural character

13.2.1. Retain the scenic quality of the Lake Jindabyne and surrounding area

A large area of Jindabyne, including the lake and the surrounding mountains, have been identified as scenic protection land pursuant to Council’s LEP. The objective of this provision is to protect:

(a) the visual qualities and scenery,

(b) the sense of isolation that can be enjoyed in many areas on and adjacent to the lakes,

(c) the recreational functions of the lakes, including its attraction as a fishing destination,

(d) the water storage functions of the lakes.

It is therefore essential that any future development will not have an unacceptable visual impact on the scenic quality, valued by tourists and residents of the area, when viewed from the lake at its full supply level or from a public place. The lake, at its full supply, is recognised as an important element of the local scenic quality of the surrounding environment, as described in the Snowy River Local Environmental Plan 2013. The lake is enjoyed and used more when its operating at full supply level. This usually occurs after the snow melts, between October and December, leading into the summer months when activity on the lake is at its highest level. In late summer levels begin to fall, as does the activity on the lake as the water cools. There are less users during the winter months when the lake is at lower levels.

There are likely to be areas of Jindabyne in particular, the western side of the lake, which are facing increasing pressure to be redeveloped for residential land uses. These areas, in particular, would require the retention of strict development controls to protect from over-development.

13.2.2. Retain the rural quality of Jindabyne

The Snowy Monaro Local Government Area and Jindabyne specifically prides itself on its rural lifestyle and character, which attracts a range of people, including families, retirees and tourists. The rural characteristics have a wide range of environmental, social and economic values.

Limited growth of rural-residential development could be considered where there are no adverse impacts on the amenity of the local area and where the development provides incentives to maintain and enhance the environmental, social and economic values of the rural area of Jindabyne. This could include the

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creation of protected biodiversity corridors, buffers to support investment in rural industries, and protection of scenic landscapes.

13.3. Provide social housing and improve housing diversity for older residents

13.3.1. Provide incentives to encourage additional seniors housing in appropriate locations

The number of people aged 65 and over increased from 8% of the population to 11% by 2016. Given the increasing need for seniors housing in the area, there is limited supply of aged care accommodation, forcing people to relocate to major centres such as Sydney further away from family and friends, rather than ageing in place.

There is therefore an urgent need to encourage seniors housing in appropriate locations. This could include appropriate accommodation within the town in close proximity to services and infrastructure. Accessibility, such as improved footpaths and pedestrian crossings would however be required to support the needs of the older population. Alternatively, seniors housing could be provided in more rural locations, that are not environmentally constrained, subject to a bus being provided, transporting residents to the town.

Granny flat accommodation (or a "secondary dwelling") could also be seen as an alternative solution, to support a higher degree of ageing in place in ways that are supported by intergenerational care. In some cases, this may reduce the case load for community service by supporting enhanced home care from family and friends and reduce the overall demand for new housing as occupancy levels are optimised. Granny flat accommodation is similar to dual occupancy dwellings, however it has a maximum floor area, creating studio type apartments (i.e. =< 60 sqm in area).

Under Council’s LEP, secondary dwellings are currently allowed in most zones where dwelling houses are permissible, and such development should be promoted by Council where possible.

13.3.2. Ensure that new development includes adaptable and accessible dwellings

Council should ensure that a minimum percentage of dwellings in new residential developments are adaptable and accessible. This is to ensure that there are dwellings in the region that have been designed to be flexible and easily modified to cater for residents with existing disabilities and future needs.

13.3.3. Provide additional social housing

During the consultation undertaken as part of this study, it was noted that the there is an undersupply of social housing in Jindabyne and the surrounding area. Currently social housing is limited to few dwellings mainly for key workers such as police officers and teachers.

As outlined in Table 66 of this study, approximately 273 households (out of 4,700 dwellings) were in mortgage stress and 381 households were in rental stress. By 2036, it is anticipated that this will increase to 421 households with mortgage stress and a further 476 households in rental stress, which represents approximately 18% of the projected population of the Jindabyne-Berridale region. Given the limited information publicly available and the confidentiality of the data, it is not possible to provide a specific number of existing dwellings available for social housing and/or key workers. However, from the interviews undertaken, we were informed that there is only limited social housing available, with few dwellings owned by Land and Housing Corporation and few houses for key workers such as police officers and teachers.

Additional social housing is however needed to support the disadvantaged, residents who earn below the median household income and are in housing stress. Additional social housing is also required to support key workers such as teachers and police officers, to enable them to reside in close proximity to their place of work, otherwise this may be seen as a barrier to attracting skilled workers to the region, which are required to support the growing population.

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APPENDIX 1

Results of the four scenario population projections, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2


Scenario projections

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Sc1 baseline 7,071 7,341 7,662 7,957 8,204 8,402 8,555

Sc2 extra accommodation 7,071 7,383 7,784 8,217 8,593 8,886 9,159

Sc3 extended season 7,071 7,373 7,696 8,055 8,370 8,617 8,835

Sc4 supercharged 7,071 7,414 7,896 8,442 8,965 9,435 9,891

Note: Alpha Demographics and Planning Information, and City Plan Strategy and Development P/L do not take any liability for any actions undertaken, decisions made or not made on the basis of these scenario projections.

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APPENDIX 2

Results of the two visitor forecast scenarios, Jindabyne-Berridale SA2

Lower bound forecast (based on maintaining share of NSW visitor nights)

Peak average daily number of visitors per month

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016-17 10,375 7,263 8,300 6,225 5,188 10,375 20,751 20,751 16,601 4,150 4,150 6,225

2017-18 10,968 7,677 8,774 6,581 5,484 10,968 21,936 21,936 17,548 4,387 4,387 6,581

2018-19 11,493 8,045 9,195 6,896 5,747 11,493 22,987 22,987 18,390 4,597 4,597 6,896

2019-20 12,016 8,411 9,613 7,210 6,008 12,016 24,032 24,032 19,226 4,806 4,806 7,210

2020-21 12,517 8,762 10,014 7,510 6,259 12,517 25,034 25,034 20,027 5,007 5,007 7,510

2021-22 13,009 9,106 10,407 7,806 6,505 13,009 26,018 26,018 20,815 5,204 5,204 7,806

2022-23 13,517 9,462 10,814 8,110 6,759 13,517 27,034 27,034 21,627 5,407 5,407 8,110

2023-24 14,034 9,824 11,227 8,420 7,017 14,034 28,068 28,068 22,454 5,614 5,614 8,420

2024-25 14,572 10,200 11,658 8,743 7,286 14,572 29,144 29,144 23,315 5,829 5,829 8,743

2025-26 15,129 10,590 12,103 9,077 7,565 15,129 30,258 30,258 24,207 6,052 6,052 9,077

2026-27 15,709 10,997 12,567 9,426 7,855 15,709 31,419 31,419 25,135 6,284 6,284 9,426

2027-28 16,315 11,420 13,052 9,789 8,157 16,315 32,630 32,630 26,104 6,526 6,526 9,789

2028-29 16,739 11,717 13,391 10,043 8,369 16,739 33,477 33,477 26,782 6,695 6,695 10,043

2029-30 17,266 12,087 13,813 10,360 8,633 17,266 34,533 34,533 27,626 6,907 6,907 10,360

2030-31 17,794 12,456 14,236 10,677 8,897 17,794 35,589 35,589 28,471 7,118 7,118 10,677

2031-32 18,322 12,826 14,658 10,993 9,161 18,322 36,645 36,645 29,316 7,329 7,329 10,993

2032-33 18,850 13,195 15,080 11,310 9,425 18,850 37,701 37,701 30,160 7,540 7,540 11,310

2034-35 19,906 13,934 15,925 11,944 9,953 19,906 39,812 39,812 31,850 7,962 7,962 11,944

2035-36 20,434 14,304 16,347 12,260 10,217 20,434 40,868 40,868 32,695 8,174 8,174 12,260


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Upper bound forecast (based on a simple 10% increase per year of constant share of NSW visitor nights)

Peak average daily number of visitors per month

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016-17 11,413 7,989 9,130 6,848 5,706 11,413 22,826 22,826 18,261 4,565 4,565 6,848

2017-18 12,065 8,445 9,652 7,239 6,032 12,065 24,129 24,129 19,303 4,826 4,826 7,239

2018-19 12,643 8,850 10,114 7,586 6,321 12,643 25,286 25,286 20,228 5,057 5,057 7,586

2019-20 13,218 9,252 10,574 7,931 6,609 13,218 26,436 26,436 21,149 5,287 5,287 7,931

2020-21 13,769 9,638 11,015 8,261 6,884 13,769 27,537 27,537 22,030 5,507 5,507 8,261

2021-22 14,310 10,017 11,448 8,586 7,155 14,310 28,620 28,620 22,896 5,724 5,724 8,586

2022-23 14,869 10,408 11,895 8,921 7,434 14,869 29,738 29,738 23,790 5,948 5,948 8,921

2023-24 15,437 10,806 12,350 9,262 7,719 15,437 30,875 30,875 24,700 6,175 6,175 9,262

2024-25 16,029 11,220 12,823 9,617 8,015 16,029 32,058 32,058 25,647 6,412 6,412 9,617

2025-26 16,642 11,649 13,314 9,985 8,321 16,642 33,284 33,284 26,627 6,657 6,657 9,985

2026-27 17,280 12,096 13,824 10,368 8,640 17,280 34,561 34,561 27,648 6,912 6,912 10,368

2027-28 17,946 12,563 14,357 10,768 8,973 17,946 35,893 35,893 28,714 7,179 7,179 10,768

2028-29 18,412 12,889 14,730 11,047 9,206 18,412 36,825 36,825 29,460 7,365 7,365 11,047

2029-30 18,993 13,295 15,194 11,396 9,497 18,993 37,986 37,986 30,389 7,597 7,597 11,396

2030-31 19,574 13,702 15,659 11,744 9,787 19,574 39,148 39,148 31,318 7,830 7,830 11,744

2031-32 20,155 14,108 16,124 12,093 10,077 20,155 40,309 40,309 32,247 8,062 8,062 12,093

2032-33 20,735 14,515 16,588 12,441 10,368 20,735 41,471 41,471 33,176 8,294 8,294 12,441

2033-34 21,316 14,921 17,053 12,790 10,658 21,316 42,632 42,632 34,106 8,526 8,526 12,790

2034-35 21,897 15,328 17,517 13,138 10,948 21,897 43,793 43,793 35,035 8,759 8,759 13,138


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APPENDIX 3

Results of the constraints mapping

4

1

3

9876

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29 30 31

20

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22 23 24 25 26

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141312

19181716

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"Go Jindabyne" Local Housing StrategyMap Grid: Constraints Mapping °

0 1 2 km

Study AreaMap Grid

19REP003 Jindabyne LHS Constraints MapbookCoordinate System: GDA 1994

Date: 30/04/2019

1 2

4 5

"Go Jindabyne" Local Housing StrategyConstraints Mapping Map 1 of 31 °

0 250 500 m

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Map Grid

Snowy Hydro Lands EOI

EPI - Riparian Lands

EPI - Wetlands

EPI - Scenic Protection

EPI - Terrestrial Biodiversity


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21

5


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Map Grid



EPI - Wetlands



NSW RFS Bushfire Prone LandVegetation Category 2


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76 8

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Endangered Ecological Communities


GSP- Visual Protection Area EPI - Urban Release Area


EPI - Wetlands





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109


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EPI - Wetlands





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Area C


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GSP- Potential Development


EPI - Wetlands





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7 86

3

1211 13

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Area A Area A


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Map Grid



GSP- Visual Protection Area


EPI - Urban Release Area


EPI - Wetlands





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8 97

13

3

12 14

Area C

Area AArea A

Area B

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GSP- Existing Use



EPI - Wetlands




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Area I


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7

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86

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Area D,E

Area D,E

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Area D,E

Area D,E


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GSP- Heritage Item

GSP- Natural Areas Buffer







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DRAFT

1312 14

8

18

97

17 19

Area B

Area C

Area D,E

Area G

Area F

Area D,E

Area G open space

Area B

Area D,EArea D,E

Area H open space


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Map Grid


GSP- Heritage Item

GSP- Open Space




GSP- Existing Use






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9

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Area I VPAArea I

Area GArea H open space

Area I open space

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Area G open space


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Map Grid



GSP- Open Space



GSP- Existing Use



EPI - Wetlands




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1514

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Area I open space

Area I

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EPI - Wetlands





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Vegetation Category 2


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Area D,E

Area D,E


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1817 19

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2423

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Area G

Area G

Area F

Area G open spaceArea D,E

Area D,E

Area G Cobbin Creek

Area F

Area H open space

Area H Lakewood


0 250 500 m

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Map Grid


GSP- Open Space



GSP - Developed

GSP- Existing Use





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DRAFT

1918 20

14

2524

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26

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Area GArea H open space

Area F

Area I open space

Area G Cobbin Creek

Area F

Area G open space


0 250 500 m

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Map Grid

GSP- Open Space


GSP - Developed

GSP- Existing Use



EPI - Wetlands




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Area I VPA

Area H open space

Area I open space

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Area H open space


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GSP- Open Space


GSP - Developed


EPI - Wetlands





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2120

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GSP- Open Space



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DRAFT

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