prospects and preconditions for market economic transformation in north korea

8/3/2019 Prospects and Preconditions for Market Economic Transformation in North Korea

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>8? N Emx Kepmtenpkgenj Mehnhmbmep Otnbmxgtc ogt Egtpf Cgtmn7

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Pfm ykp}npkge ke pfm ogtbmt Ygvkmp ]ekge ky b}if bgtm nqqjkindjm otgbne migegbki qgkep go vkmx% Qtkvnpm gxemtyfkq ke pfm Ygvkmp ]ekge xny vmt{

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9 Lmootm{ Ynify fny q}djkyfm` dmn}pko}j g}pjkemy ogt xfnp emm`y pg dm gem nopmt Igbb}ekyb* ne`

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Qtgyqmipy ne` Qtmige`kpkgey ogt Bntcmp Migegbki Ptneyogtbnpkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn >88

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Ne n``kpkgenj ~}mt{ igeimtekeh Egtpf Cgtmn ky xfmpfmt pfm ypnpm kpymjo xkjj igjjnqym ne` dm ndygtdm` d{ Yg}pf Cgtmn ne`* ko yg* fgx pfnp xkjj fnq"

qme% Pfm gdvkg}y mnbqjm ky pfm Hmtbne }ekokinpkge% Fgxmvmt* pfm qntnjjmjky egp ny ymjo"mvk`mep ny kp bn{ nqqmnt% Pfm o}e`nbmepnj `koomtmeim ky pfnp Mnyp Hmtbne{ xny igepke}g}yj{ y}dlmip pg Ygvkmp bkjkpnt{ gii}qnpkge* xfkifky go ig}tym egp pfm inym xkpf Egtpf Cgtmn% Negpfmt Mnyp Hmtbne qmi}jkntkp{ xny pfnp pfm qmgqjm xmtm vmt{ xmjj"keogtbm` pfnecy pg Xmyp Hmtbne pmjmvk"ykge* xfkif igvmtm` pfm xfgjm ig}ept{% Okenjj{* pfm ig}ept{ mqmtkmeim` nf}hm ne` igepke}g}y myinqm go bkjjkgey go ikpk|mey pg Xmyp Hmtbne{* ne`pfm tmo}hmmy xmtm hkvme n}pgbnpki Xmyp Hmtbne ikpk|meyfkq% Egt ky pfm _kmp"enbmym }ekokinpkge nqqjkindjm* dmin}ym kp nbg}epm` pg yptnkhfpogtxnt` bkjk"pnt{ ige~}myp%

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Egt ky kp gdvkg}y pfnp Yg}pf Cgtmn xg}j` jkcm pg ndygtd Egtpf Cgtmn kb"bm`knpmj{% Migegbkinjj{* pfm Hmtbne }ekokinpkge ky `mpmttkeh% Pfm igypy pg Xmyp Hmtbne pnqn{mty fnvm dmme f}hm‐ge pfm gt`mt go $>=1 dkjjkge n {mnt%Bgyp go pfky bgem{ fny dmme xnypm` ge ygiknj xmjontm* ne` Mnyp Hmtbney

fnvm dmme in}hfp ke n ygiknj xmjontm ptnq* tme`mtkeh kp }eqtgokpndjm ogt pfmbpg xgtc* ny ygiknj dmemokpy fnvm dmme bgtm nbqjm pfne xnhmy% F}hm q}djki



>86 N Emx Kepmtenpkgenj Mehnhmbmep Otnbmxgtc ogt Egtpf Cgtmn7

kevmypbmep ke Mnyp Hmtbne keotnypt}ip}tm fny qtgvm` mptmbmj{ }eqtgokp"ndjm% Kp ky igbbge pg djnbm pfm i}ttmei{ }ekge* xfkif vnj}m` pfm Mnyp Hmt"bne bntc np ne ntpkokiknjj{ fkhf tnpm* d}p n bgtm nqqtgqtknpm pnthmp xg}j` dm

pfm Xmyp Hmtbne ptn`m }ekgey* xfkif keykypm` ge mimyykvm xnhmy ke pfm Mnyp ogt pfmkt gxe dmemokp% Pfm tmy}jp xny pfm fkhfmyp gookiknj }embqjg{bmep kene{ qgypigbb}ekyp ig}ept{* tkykeh pg 9= qmtimep* ny Mnyp Hmtbne jndgt xnyqtkim` g}p go pfm bntcmp% Ny n igeym~}meim* bkjjkgey go Mnyp Hmtbney bk"htnpm` pg pfm Xmyp `}tkeh pfm `min`m nopmt }ekokinpkge% Tmhnt`jmyy go qgjki{*pfm jnthm bkhtnpkge xny `kooki}jp pg nvgk` nopmt pfm mntj{ }ekokinpkge%

Dmin}ym go Xmyp Hmtbne keykypmeim ge tmypkp}pkge go qtgqmtp{ pg tmo}hmmyke pfm Xmyp* Mnyp Hmtbney `k` egp hmp b}if g}p go pfm qtkvnpk|npkge mkpfmt%]embqjg{m` ne` `mqtkvm`* yp}ic ke pfmkt ygiknj xmjontm ptnq* pfm Mnyp Hmt"bney htmx tmhtmpo}j ne` vgpm` ogt jmop"xkeh qntpkmy ne` bgtm ygiknj xmjontm*

pkqqkeh pfm qgjkpkinj dnjneim ke }ekokm` Hmtbne{ pg pfm jmop* yg pfnp jkdmtnjmigegbki tmogtby ig}j` egp dm }e`mtpncme% Fmeim* pfm xfgjm go Hmtbne{ fny dmme gyykokm`* jmn`keh pg bkekbnj htgxpf ke dgpf pfm Mnyp ne` pfm Xmyp*np n fkhf igyp pg ygikmp{ &Qkicmj ne` Xkmymepfnj >;;83 Ykmdmtp >;;43 Xgtj`Dnec 4114+% Pg`n{ Hmtbne{ ky gopme `myitkdm` ny pfm ykic bne go M}tgqm*ne` kpy ykicemyy ky n `ktmip igeym~}meim go kpy }ey}iimyyo}j }ekokinpkge% Xf{ xg}j` ne{dg`{ jkcm pg tmqmnp y}if n igypj{ onkj}tm7

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pkge xkpf Egtpf Cgtmn ig}j` mypndkjk|m Yg}pf Cgtmn dgpf migegbkinjj{ ne`qgjkpkinjj{* xfkif xg}j` fntb Egtpf Cgtmn ny xmjj% Pfmtmogtm* K yfnjj nyy}bmpfnp pfm Egtpf Cgtmne ypnpm `gmy egp igjjnqym d}p tmbnkey ke`mqme`mep `}t"keh pfm ig}tym go kpy ptneyogtbnpkge* xfkif nqqmnty pg fnvm ypntpm` njtmn`{%

N Yimentkg ogt Egtpf Cgtmne Ptneyogtbnpkge

Pfm Njdnekne ptneyogtbnpkge xny keypkhnpm` d{ pftmm onipgty% Oktyp* pfm gtkhk"enj `myqgp Mevmt Fgfn `km` ke >;6=% Ymige`* pfm ig}ept{ xny ndygj}pmj{ kygjnpm` kepmtenpkgenjj{* ne` pfm qtmvkg}yj{ jnthm nbg}ep go nk` otgb* oktyp*

pfm Ygvkmp ]ekge ne`* jnpmt* Ifken imnym`% Pfkt`* pfm }etmogtbm` ne` n}pntckimigegb{ gyykokm` ne` ypntpm` mijkekeh% Ke n``kpkge* pfm Mnyp M}tgqmne tmvg"j}pkgey go >;6; fn` y}dypnepknj kbqnip ge pfm omx pfkeckeh bmbdmty go pfmmjkpm% Ny pfm tmhkbm fmykpnpm`* kp it}bdjm`% Mjmipkgey xmtm fmj` ke pfm mntj{ y}bbmt go >;;>% Xfkjm pfm Igbb}ekypy xge* pfm fnt`"jkemty jgyp g}p% Pfmt}jkeh mjkpm ypn{m` ke qgxmt* d}p kp xny `kvk`m` kepg tg}hfj{ pftmm htg}qy‐fnt`"jkemty* tmogtb Igbb}ekypy* ne` nepkigbb}ekyp gqqgykpkge% Xfkjm pfmybnjj mjkpm og}hfp nbgeh pfmbymjvmy* pfm ig}ept{ me`m` }q ke emnt nentif{ d{ pfm y}bbmt go >;;>% Pfm ndymeim go ikvkj ygikmp{ jm` pg n yptkckeh jnic go igbqtgbkym ne` ikvkj qmnim xfkjm pfm Igbb}ekyp Qntp{ ypn{m` yptgeh% Mvme"p}njj{ n bkegt ikvkj xnt mt}qpm` ke >;;8* d}p kp xny yxkopj{ igepnkem`%



Qtgyqmipy ne` Qtmige`kpkgey ogt Bntcmp Migegbki Ptneyogtbnpkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn >8;

Pfm ykp}npkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn nqqmnty tmbkekyimep% Ckb Kj"y}eh `km` ke>;;0% Egtpf Cgtmn ky kygjnpm`% Pfm `koomtmeim ky pfnp y}dypnepknj f}bnekpnt"kne nyykypneim go bgtm pfne $> dkjjkge qmt {mnt fny dmme hkvme pg Egtpf Cg"

tmn ogt pfm qnyp omx {mnty% Ny Bnti}y Egjne` &4110+ nth}my* pfky ‚f}bnekpnt"kne‒ nyykypneim ky jkcmj{ pg qtgjgeh pfm jkom go pfm tmhkbm% Ke n ig}ept{ xfmtmqgxmt ne` cegxjm`hm fnvm dmme yg mptmbmj{ igeimeptnpm`* ny ke Egtpf Cgtmn*pfm gj` mjkpm ky jkcmj{ pg omm` njj o}p}tm qgjkpkinj htg}qy% Ny ke Njdnekn* ne}eigbqtgbkykeh nepk"Igbb}ekyp Qntp{ ky jkcmj{ pg mbmthm* xfkif ky bgtmnepkigbb}ekyp pfne mbgitnpki* xfkjm n yptgeh* tminjikptnep Igbb}ekyp Qntp{ ky jkcmj{ pg qmtykyp% Pfm xmncmt pfnp ikvkj ygikmp{ xny dmogtm pfm me` go igb"b}ekyb* pfm jmyy qtgdndkjkp{ go `mbgitni{ gt ygqfkypkinpm` qgjki{ ke ne{ yqfmtm &Íyj}e` 4114+%

Pfm Egtpf Cgtmne migegbki y{ypmb nqqmnty pg dm }etnvmjkeh% Pfm mig"

egbki tmogtby go L}j{ 4114 ntm jnthmj{ oktyp"hmemtnpkge Ygvkmp"p{qm tmogtby*ogi}ykeh ge dmppmt keimepkvmy xkpfke pfm gj` y{ypmb tnpfmt pfne y{ypmbkiifnehmy% Nopmt ne mepmtqtkym fny o}jokjjm` kpy qjneem` qtg`}ipkge gdjkhnpkgey*kp ky njjgxm` pg ptn`m xkpf kpy y}tqj}y ge pfm gqme bntcmp xkpf tmpnkem` mnte"kehy% Negpfmt mjmbmep fny dmme n`bkekyptnpkvmj{ keitmnym` xnhmy ne` qtkimy% Nhtki}jp}tnj qtgi}tmbmep qtkimy* myqmiknjj{* fnvm dmme dggypm` pg bncm kp bgtm npptnipkvm pg ymjj htnke pg pfm ypnpm% Qntnjjmj qtkvnpm ptn`m ke ogg`yp}ooy kyqmtbkppm` &Egjne` 4110* 0?’;3 Gf 4119+% Ke yfgtp* pfmym tmogtby ine dm`myitkdm` ny pkecmtkeh xkpf pfm gj` Ygvkmp"p{qm y{ypmb* njjgxkeh bgtm qgxmt pg ypnpm mepmtqtkym bnenhmty* bgtm bnpmtknj keimepkvmy* ne` bgtm bnthkenj

bntcmpy% Pg n yp}`mep go Ygvkmp tmogtby* pfky yg}e`y jkcm pfm egp"vmt{"y}iimyyo}j Cgy{hke tmogtby ke pfm >;?1y &Cgtenk >;;4* ifnq% >=* 9?1’8;+%

Kp ky kepmtmypkeh pfnp Egtpf Cgtmn fny kbbm`knpmj{ bgvm` nfmn` pg xfnp ine dm `myitkdm` ny ymige`"hmemtnpkge tmogtby* kevgjvkeh mjmbmepy go bnt"cmp ygiknjkyb% Ogt ogg`* ke qntpki}jnt* pfm qtkvnpm bntcmp nqqmnty pg fnvm dm"igbm `gbkenep% Nppmbqpy fnvm dmme bn`m pg n`l}yp qtkimy ne` xnhmy pgbntcmpy% Ypnpm mepmtqtkymy fnvm dmme hkvme ogtmkhe ptn`m tkhfpy* o}tpfmt me"fneikeh pfm tkhfpy go pfmkt bnenhmty% Pxg f}hm `mvnj}npkgey xmtm }e`mt"pncme ke N}h}yp 4114 ne` Gipgdmt 4119* tmyqmipkvmj{* ke nppmbqpy pg inpif

}q xkpf pfm djnic bntcmp mifnehm tnpm &Egjne` 4110* 0;’=1+% Pfky `gmyegp yg}e` jkcm pfm gt`mtj{ F}ehntkne migegbki tmogtby gt mvme pfm Qgjkyftmogtby3 kp yg}e`y tnpfmt xgtym* ny `}tkeh pfm Ygvkmp migegbki itkyky ntg}e`>;;1* xfme Bkcfnkj Hgtdnifmv‛y tmhkbm mepmtm` kpy `mnpf pftgmy &Íyj}e`>;;>+%

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kiy* yg fgx ig}j` pfm{ }e`mtypne` pfm kbqjkinpkgey go n jnthm d}`hmp `mokikp gt pfm kyy}neim go bgem{7 @gjjntk|npkge ky nqqntmepj{ njtmn`{ n`vneim`% ]e`mt




pfmym ikti}bypneimy* f{qmtkeojnpkge ky jkcmj{ pg dm ntg}e` pfm igtemt* ne`migegbki igjjnqym }y}njj{ ogjjgxy &Íyj}e` >;;=+%

Nhnke* pfm Njdnekne mnbqjm ky kjj}yptnpkvm% Ke pfm y}bbmt go >;;>* Njdn"

ekne g}pq}p qj}bbmpm` ne` qtgdndj{ fnjvm` }tkeh pfm pfkt` ~}ntpmt &Íyj}e`ne` Ylÿdmth >;;4* >9=’=1+% N igeoj}meim go onipgty igeptkd}pm`% Pfm cm{ xny pfnp pfm ypnpm ig}j` eg jgehmt `mbne` pfnp mepmtqtkym bnenhmty nppnkeqjne pnthmpy% Pfm ypkic xny hgem* ne` pfm qtg`}ipkge go bne{ hgg`y xny`kyt}qpm`% Negpfmt tmnyge xny pfnp ypnpm tmh}jnpkge tmbnkem` ke qjnim* yghgg`y pfnp xmtm eg jgehmt qtg`}im` ke y}ookikmep ~}nepkpkmy ke pfm ig}ept{ ig}j` egp dm kbqgtpm`% Ne{ tmh}jnpkge ig}j` in}ym megtbg}y `nbnhm kepfky ymp}q% Bmnexfkjm* pfm igbdkenpkge go igjjnqykeh qtg`}ipkge* `mijkekeh pn igjjmipkge* ne` tkykeh xnhm `mbne`y dggypm` pfm d}`hmp `mokikp ne` jm`pg n okeneiknj itkyky% Pfm g}pigbm xny gem go pfm htmnpmyp `mijkemy go g}pq}p

tmigt`m` ke ne{ ig}ept{ ke qmnimpkbm% Njpfg}hf Egtpf Cgtmn fny njtmn`{ hgem pftg}hf n `mijkem ke g}pq}p go ny b}if ny 4= qmtimep otgb >;6; pg>;;; &Egjne` 4110+* kp ig}j` onim ne mvme xgtym igjjnqym egx* xfkif yfg}j`njyg jmn` pg n qgjkpkinj }etnvmjkeh dmin}ym omx ygikmpkmy hg pftg}hf f{qmt"keojnpkge xkpfg}p bnlgt qgjkpkinj `kyt}qpkge%

Ygbmpfkeh mjym njyg ymmby pg dm hgkeh ge ke Egtpf Cgtmn% Pgxnt` pfm me`go pfm Ygvkmp ]ekge‛y mkypmeim* ypnpm mepmtqtkym bnenhmty ke`}jhm` ke bny"ykvm tmep ymmckeh* ptneyomttkeh pfm qtgokpy otgb pfmkt mepmtqtkymy pg pfmkt qtk" vnpm ptn`keh igbqnekmy ne` niig}epy% Pfm Egtpf Cgtmne y{ypmb* xkpf jnthm`koomtmeimy dmpxmme djnic bntcmp qtkimy ne` ypnpm qtkimy ny xmjj ny dmpxmme

pfm gookiknj mifnehm tnpm ne` pfm djnic bntcmp tnpm* nqqmnty k`mnj ogt pfm tmep ymmckeh yg ifntnipmtkypki go pfm me` go pfm Ygvkmp y{ypmb &Íyj}e` >;;=3Fmjjbne >;;6* 419’90+%

D}p pfmtm ky n xn{ g}p% Njdnekn tmigvmtm` onyp* ne` ogt pfm emp mkhfp {mntykp bnkepnkem` ne nvmtnhm htgyy `gbmypki qtg`}ip &H@Q+ htgxpf go 6 qmtimep n {mnt* njpfg}hf kp y}oomtm` n ympdnic go 8 qmtimep ke >;;8 dmin}ym go ikvkj`kygt`mt &MDT@ 4119+% Gvmtnjj* Njdnekn fny dmme pfm bgyp `{enbki ptneyk"pkge ig}ept{% Myymepknjj{* pftmm i}tmy fmjqm`<

․ Kp }e`mtpggc ~}kpm n tn`kinj jkdmtnjk|npkge ne` okeneiknj ypndkjk|npkge*

njjgxkeh migegbki tmvkvnj ne` n htgxpf go >1 qmtimep ny mntj{ ny >;;9%․ Njdnekn inttkm` g}p n tn`kinj jne` tmogtb ke pfm y}bbmt go >;;> ke yqkpm

go nentif{% Pfm hgvmtebmep ykbqj{ `mijntm` pfnp mvmt{ igjjmipkvm ontbmt xny mepkpjm` pg n imtpnke ntmn go jne`* d}p kp xny }q pg pfm qmnynepypfmbymjvmy pg pncm kp% Pfm qmnynepy `k` yg keypnepj{* ne`* nopmt fnvkeh ymp ge pfm jne` ogt n dtkmo bgbmep* pfm{ ypntpm` qtg`}ikeh dtkycj{ &Íyj}e`ne` Ylÿdmth >;;4+% Pfky jne` tmogtb ine dm igbqntm` xkpf pfm Ifkemymnhtki}jp}tnj tmogtb pfnp dtg}hfp ndg}p n ykbkjnt ifnehm% Pfky xnyqmtfnqy pfm bgyp kbqgtpnep i}tm go pfm pftmm%

․ F}hm ogtmkhe nyykypneim xny njyg keypt}bmepnj% Np pfm pkbm* pke{ Njdnekn xny d{ ont pfm qggtmyp ig}ept{ ke M}tgqm% Kp eg jgehmt ky* ne` pfm M}tg"



Qtgyqmipy ne` Qtmige`kpkgey ogt Bntcmp Migegbki Ptneyogtbnpkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn >6>

qmne ]ekge ojgg`m` pfm ig}ept{ xkpf nk` pg nvgk` mbkhtnpkge ne`keypndkjkp{% Kekpknjj{* ogtmkhe nyykypneim tmnifm` ny b}if ny 01 qmtimep go H@Q% Kp fny okeneim` dgpf jnthm d}`hmp `mokikpy ne` jnthm i}ttmep niig}ep

`mokikpy% Ke tmjnpkge pg H@Q* eg gpfmt ptneykpkge ig}ept{ fny tmimkvm` nyjnthm n vgj}bm go ogtmkhe nyykypneim ny Njdnekn &pfg}hf ygbm `mvmjgq"keh ig}eptkmy fnvm tmimkvm` mvme bgtm pg jkppjm dmemokp &Xgtj` Dnec 4119* 996’01+%

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Ymvmtnj mjmbmepy yfg}j` qtmomtndj{ dm qntp go n y}iimyyo}j tmogtb qtgimyy% N qgjkpkinj jmn`mt emm`y pg ni~}ktm qgjkpkinj jmhkpkbni{* dmyp go njj pftg}hf n`mbgitnpki vgpm% Qgjkpkinj jmn`mty emm` pg mjndgtnpm n tmogtb qtghtnb* xfkifn emxj{ mjmipm` qntjknbmep qtmomtndj{ yfg}j` n`gqp% N igbqtmfmeykvm d}p ybnjj tmogtb qtghtnb pfme yfg}j` dm yxkopj{ kbqjmbmepm`% Kp yfg}j` ige"pnke pfm qkjjnty go pfm emx y{ypmb3 kp ky vkpnj egp pg hmp dghhm` `gxe ke pgg

bne{ mpnkjy* xfkif gej{ in}ym mjn{y ne` tntmj{ bnppmt np pfm oktyp ypnhm% Pfmcm{y ke pfm mntj{ ptneykpkge ntm ont"tmnifkeh mtmh}jnpkge go qtkimy* ptn`m* ne`mepmtqtkym igbdkem` xkpf n tkhgtg}y bnitgmigegbki ypndkjk|npkge qtghtnbne` kepmtenpkgenj nyykypneim igeykypkeh go dgpf n`vkim ne` okeneikeh% Ny yggeny qgyykdjm* qtkvnpk|npkge yfg}j` dm kekpknpm`* myqmiknjj{ ybnjj"yinjmqtkvnpk|npkge &Íyj}e` 4114+% Kemvkpndj{* n ptneykpkge ky bmyy{* ne` pfm EgtpfCgtmne ptneykpkge fny pfm qgpmepknj go dmkeh vmt{ bmyy{% [mp* Egtpf Cgtmn fnyymvmtnj htmnp n`vnepnhmy% Oktyp* ny n jnpmigbmt* kp ine dmemokp otgb pfm jmyygeyjmntem` otgb gpfmt qgypigbb}ekyp ig}eptkmy% Ymige`* pfm mkypmeim go n y}i"imyyo}j qmmt ig}ept{* pfnp ky* Yg}pf Cgtmn* xkjj htmnpj{ onikjkpnpm kpy ptneykpkge%

Pfkt`* qjmep{ go kepmtenpkgenj okeneikeh ky nvnkjndjm ogt Egtpf Cgtmn‛y ptneyk"pkge%

[mp* n y{ypmb ny tkhk` ny Egtpf Cgtmn‛y ky jkcmj{ pg mqmtkmeim n fgttme`g}ymigegbki itkyky* ne`* tmhnt`jmyy go fgx ybnjj kpy g}pq}p ky np qtmymep* pfmmigegb{ xkjj qtgdndj{ qj}bbmp &Xkekmick >;;>* ??;’8?+% Mptmbm okene"iknj `mypndkjk|npkge ky qtgdndjm* ne` tmep ymmckeh xkjj eg `g}dp dm mptngt`k"ent{% Pfm dmyp i}tm igbqtkymy jkdmtnjk|npkge* okeneiknj ypndkjk|npkge* ne`qtkvnpk|npkge* d}p kp xkjj dm ymvmtmj{ igepmypm` ne` kooki}jp% Pfky igei}ty xkpfpfm hmemtnj jmyygey otgb qgypigbb}ekyp ptneyogtbnpkge pfnp pfm bgtm `m"bgitni{* tn`kinj jkdmtnjk|npkge* ypndkjk|npkge* ne` qtkvnpk|npkge* pfm htmnpmt




pfm migegbki htgxpf &Dmth mp nj% >;;;3 @m Bmjg mp nj% >;;8* >8’843 Fnv"t{j{yf{e 411>* =9’68+%

Mntj{ ne` Qtgog}e` Jkdmtnjk|npkge Ne g}pypne`keh omnp}tm go Egtpf Cgtmn‛y i}ttmep migegbki ykp}npkge ky yfgtp"nhmy% Qmgqjm xfg fnvm njxn{y jkvm` ke n ygiknjkyp migegb{ ifntnipmtk|m` d{ yfgtpnhmy ineegp kbnhkem pfm{ xkjj hg nxn{% N bntcmp migegb{ ine gvmt"igbm pfky vmt{ onyp* d}p gej{ ko kp ky y}ookikmepj{ otmm% Pfmtmogtm* n tn`kinj `m"tmh}jnpkge go qtkimy ne` bntcmpy dtkehy ne kbbm`knpm qgjkpkinj dmemokp* xfkjmn htn`}nj jkdmtnjk|npkge nhkpnpmy qmgqjm%

Njyg yptgeh migegbki tmnygey onvgt ont"tmnifkeh ne` mntj{ jkdmtnjk|npkge%Ko mepmtqtkymy ineegp ni~}ktm keq}py* pfm{ xkjj qtg`}im jmyy* ne` g}pq}p ineypntp qj}bbmpkeh* ny fnqqmem` np pfm me` go pfm Ygvkmp ]ekge ne` Njdnekn%O}tpfmtbgtm* ko xgtcmty ineegp oke` ne{pfkeh pg d}{ ogt pfmkt bgem{ d}p fnvm pg yqme` fg}ty ~}m}keh gt ymntifkeh ogt hgg`y* pfm{ fnvm jkppjm keime"pkvm pg xgtc bgtm ne` xkjj enp}tnjj{ xgtc jmyy% N otmm bntcmp* d{ enp}tm* xkjjqtgvk`m n dmppmt njjginpkge go hgg`y ne` ymtvkimy* xfkjm n ymbk"jkdmtnjk|m`bntcmp bn{ in}ym emx `kypgtpkgey &Dg{icg >;;>* 9=’0=+%

Okenjj{* nth}bmepy go ygiknj l}ypkim it{ g}p ogt ont"tmnifkeh jkdmtnjk|npkge% Njj ygiknjkyp migegbkmy ntm ifntnipmtk|m` d{ pfmkt qtkvkjmhm` niimyy pg hgg`yne` ymtvkimy ogt pfm mjkpm% Ke pfm ptneykpkge* gem go pfm htmnpmyp qtgdjmby fnydmme tmep ymmckeh* ny ygbm d}ykemyyqmgqjm xkpf yqmiknj niimyy dg}hfp hgg`y

np jgx qtkimy okm` d{ pfm ypnpm xfkjm ymjjkeh pfmym hgg`y ge otmm bntcmpy np qtkimy pfnp ig}j` dm }q pg >11 pkbmy fkhfmt &Fmjjbne >;;63 Íyj}e` 4114+% Pfky tmep ymmckeh fny hmemtnpm` yg"injjm` gjkhntify* npptnipkeh pfm htmnpmyp qgjkpkinj tmnipkge ke qgypigbb}ekyp ig}eptkmy% Dgpf yfgtpnhmy ne` tmep ymmc"keh ine dm dtg}hfp pg ne me` xkpf n yxkop `mtmh}jnpkge%

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ke pfm bntcmp dmin}ym pfm jkdmtnjk|npkge xny egp o}jj"ojm`hm`% Ogt Egtpf Cg"tmn* emntj{ igbqjmpm qtkim jkdmtnjk|npkge xg}j` dm vkpnj% Qtkim keitmnymy ogt nomx hgg`y gopme ntg}ym q}djki tmnipkgey ne` tkgpy* xfkjm igbqtmfmeykvm qtkimjkdmtnjk|npkge ky injbj{ niimqpm`* ny kp ky tkhfpj{ qmtimkvm` ny n ifnehm go pfm xfgjm migegbki y{ypmb ne` egp ny ne nip go tm`kyptkd}pkge%

Ygbm mimqpkgey ntm }y}njj{ bn`m% N omx ogg` ypnqjmy* y}if ny dtmn` ne`bkjc* ntm gopme jmop nyk`m* xfkif bkhfp niigbbg`npm n omnto}j q}djki% Tmepy*fmnpkeh* mjmiptkikp{* ne` hny ogt fg}ymfgj`y ny xmjj ny q}djki ptneyqgtpnpkgentm ykbkjntj{ njbgyp njxn{y y}dlmip pg ygbm qtkim tmh}jnpkge ke tmyqgeym pgqgjkpkinj mbne`y% Pfm htmnpmyp nehmt pg tmogtb ky pfm igepke}m` tmh}jnpkgego xfgjmynjm qtkimy go igbbg`kpkmy y}if ny memth{* bmpnjy* ne` nhtki}jp}tnj




hgg`y% Ke pfm ogtbmt Ygvkmp ]ekge* y}if `gbmypki qtkimy xmtm gopme okm` np ntpkokiknjj{ jgx jmvmjy pg njjgx n omx bgegqgjkypki ptn`mty pg ymjj pfmym igb"bg`kpkmy ndtgn` np n jmvmj ymvmtnj pkbmy fkhfmt ne` qgicmp pfm qtgokp* bgypj{

gooyfgtm* xfkif igeptkd}pm` pg inqkpnj ojkhfp% Pfm jkdmtnjk|npkge go kbqgtpy ky gem go pfm bgyp qgq}jnt nipkgey ke nqgypigbb}ekyp ptneyogtbnpkge dmin}ym njj cke`y go fkpfmtpg }ecegxe hgg`yy}``mej{ dmigbm nvnkjndjm ge pfm `gbmypki bntcmp% Dmin}ym pfm mifnehmtnpm fny }y}njj{ qj}bbmpm` njtmn`{* `gbmypki qtg`}ipy ntm keitm`kdj{ ke"mqmeykvm* yg eg igbqmpkpkge dmpxmme kbqgtpy ne` vkndjm gbmypki qtg`}imntkymy% Bne{ ig}eptkmy* tnehkeh otgb Qgjne` ne` Mypgekn pg T}yykn* ndgj"kyfm` njj kbqgtp pntkooy ne` ~}gpny np pfm ynbm pkbm ny pfm{ jkdmtnjk|m` qtkimy% Xfmtm pfky `k` egp fnqqme* ogt keypneim* ke ]ctnkem* pfm `mntpf go hgg`yigepke}m` ne` n omx tmep ymmcmty qtgokpmmtm` d{ qtkvkjmhm` ogtmkhe ptn`m tkhfpy%

Egtpf Cgtmn yfg}j` hg ogt o}jj jkdmtnjk|npkge go kbqgtpy np pfm ynbm pkbm nykp jkdmtnjk|my bgyp qtkimy% Pfm `mtmh}jnpkge go mqgtpy xny* igeptnt{ pg mqmipnpkgey* vmt{ `kooki}jp pg

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>6? N Emx Kepmtenpkgenj Mehnhmbmep Otnbmxgtc ogt Egtpf Cgtmn7

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= N }ymo}j y}bbnt{ go pfm mqmtkmeimy ky Fnvt{j{yf{e ne` BiHmppkhne &4111* 4=8’6?+%




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Ke qntnjjmj* nhtki}jp}tnj jne` yfg}j` dm hkvme pg pfgym xfg pkjj kp% Jne`tmogtb }y}njj{ fnqqmey mntj{ ke ig}eptkmy xfmtm nhtki}jp}tm ky kbqgtpnep

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Otgb pfm vmt{ g}pymp* n jnthm ymipgt go ybnjj mepmtqtkymy yfg}j` ntkym ko pgpnj otmm`gb go ybnjj meptmqtmem}ty ky qmtbkppm`% Ke`kvk`}nj meptmqtmem}ty*qtkbntkj{ ke ptn`m ne` itnopy* ine yxkopj{ mbqjg{ bgtm pfne >1 qmtimep go pfmjndgt ogtim* qtgvk`keh pfm qggt xkpf keigbmy* jndgt* ne` y}qqjkmy njj np geim%Egtpf Cgtmn fny ne mptmbmj{ ybnjj ymtvkim ymipgt* mbqjg{keh ndg}p 91 qmt"

imep go pfm jndgt ogtim &Mdmtypn`p 411>n* pndjm =+* ne` kp ig}j` mnykj{ ndygtdne n``kpkgenj gem"okopf go pfm jndgt ogtim% Pfky mbqjg{bmep xg}j` enp}tnjj{ gii}t ke ybnjj mepmtqtkymy ke tmpnkj ptn`m ne` itnopy* ny fny gii}ttm` ke bne{ qgypigbb}ekyp ig}eptkmy% Itkpkinj ogt y}if y}iimyy ky `mtmh}jnpkge%

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? Igbqntm xkpf Dg{icg mp nj% &>;;=+%



Qtgyqmipy ne` Qtmige`kpkgey ogt Bntcmp Migegbki Ptneyogtbnpkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn >6;

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Egtpf Cgtmn% Kp xkjj pncm pkbm dmogtm qtkvnpm ogtmkhe `ktmip kevmypbmep pncmygoo% Qtkvnpk|npkge ky njyg n xn{ go mbqgxmtkeh Egtpf Cgtmney* yg n dtgn`Yg}pf Cgtmne q}tifnym go Egtpf Cgtmne mepmtqtkymy‐ny Xmyp Hmtbneydg}hfp Mnyp Hmtbne mepmtqtkymy‐ky emkpfmt migegbkinjj{ egt qgjkpkinjj{ egt ygiknjj{ `myktndjm%

@}tkeh mntj{ ptneykpkge* n yptnehm f{ypmtkn pme`y pg qtmvnkj ndg}p pfm yfnqmgo mepmtqtkymy% Mvmt{dg`{ pfkecy pfnp njj mepmtqtkymy xkjj igjjnqym ne` pfnp mvmt{dg`{ xkjj dm }embqjg{m`* d}p ke tmnjkp{ vktp}njj{ njj igbqnekmy ntmbnckeh f}hm qtgokpy dmin}ym go fkhf keojnpkge% Pfm qgkep ky pfnp mepmtqtkymyfnvm bgtm pkbm ogt pfmkt tmypt}ip}tkeh pfne qmgqjm pme` pg dmjkmvm% Pfmtm"

ogtm* pfmtm ky eg tmnyge pg dm notnk` go dnect}qpi{* xfkif ky xtgehj{ qmt"imkvm` ny pfm `mypt}ipkge go qf{ykinj nyympy% Keypmn`* dnect}qpi{ ky ne moomi"pkvm bmney go niigbqjkyfkeh n ijmne okeneiknj dtmnc% Gj` ijnkby ntm ygtpm`g}p3 mepmtqtkymy ntm ogtim` pg qn{* xfkif ky n bnlgt qtgdjmb ke ptneykpkge3ne` hgg` qf{ykinj nyympy ine dm q}p }q ogt n}ipkge pg emx gxemty xkpfg}p ne{ b{ypmtkg}y igeimnjm` jkmey% Ke onip* dnect}qpi{‐}e`mtypgg` gej{ d{ ifneim pg dm n fmjqo}j pmifek~}m‐p}tem` g}p pg dm gem go pfm bgyp mookikmep bmney go qtkvnpk|npkge ke Qgjne`%

Pmifekinjj{* qtkvnpk|npkge ky pfm bgyp igbqjm pnyc go ptneykpkge* tm~}ktkeh

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_kpnj Ogtmkhe Nyykypneim

Enp}tnjj{* ogtmkhe nyykypneim ine qjn{ n htmnp tgjm ke Egtpf Cgtmn‛y ptneykpkgepg n bntcmp migegb{%8 Fgxmvmt* egp njj nk` ky }ymo}j* ne` ygbm ky mvme fntb"o}j* dmemokpkeh tmep ymmcmty ne` kbqm`keh tmogtb%



>;1 N Emx Kepmtenpkgenj Mehnhmbmep Otnbmxgtc ogt Egtpf Cgtmn7

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Qtmy}bndj{* eg Egtpf Cgtmney fnvm pfm tmjmvnep cegxjm`hm gt mqmtkmeimpg fne`jm pfm qgypigbb}ekyp ptneykpkge% Kepmtenpkgenj pmifekinj nyykypneim‐pfnp ky* igey}jpkeh‐ky dn`j{ emm`m` ke pfky ntmn% Oktyp* n omx g}pypne`keh migegbkypy ntm tm~}ktm` ke gt`mt pg nk` pfm jmn`keh Egtpf Cgtmne migegbkiqgjki{bncmty xkpf pfm gvmtnjj migegbki tmogtb nhme`n% Pfm ynbm migeg"bkypy xg}j` enp}tnjj{ pncm intm go n`vkim ge okeneiknj ypndkjk|npkge `ktmipm`

np pfm Bkekypt{ go Okeneim ne` pfm imeptnj dnec% Kp ky qtnipkinj pg itmnpm gemimeptnj gookim go migegbki tmymntif ogt pfm hgvmtebmep ne` pfm imeptnj dnec* xfkif yfg}j` hnpfmt pghmpfmt pfm jmn`keh migegbki n`vkygty% Dmin}ym njjtmjmvnep ypnpkypkiy ntm }ek~}mj{ ndymep ke Egtpf Cgtmn &Mdmtypn`p 411>d+* ke"pmtenpkgenj `gegty emm` pg ogi}y ge ~}kicj{ mypndjkyfkeh ygbm cke` go ypn"pkypkinj y{ypmb% &Kekpknjj{* qgjki{bncmty yfg}j` pncm intm egp pg dgpfmt ndg}p xfnp pfm ypnpkypkiy yn{ dmin}ym pfm{ xkjj dm yg dn` pfnp pfm{ xkjj `kykeogtbbgtm pfne pfm{ keogtb% Ke pfm ndymeim go qjn}ykdjm `npn* qgjki{bncmty fnvmpg nip ge qtkeikqjm bgtm pfne ge ne{pfkeh mjym%+ Qtkvnpk|npkge ke njj kpy ogtbytm~}ktmy jnthm ne` mqmeykvm pmifekinj nyykypneim ogt n jgeh pkbm% Ogt okene"

iknj ypndkjk|npkge* pfm KBO ky pfm cm{ kepmtenpkgenj nhmei{* ne` pfm Xgtj`Dnec igbqjmbmepy pfm KBO xkpf n dtgn`mt ypt}ip}tnj nhme`n% ]YNK@ fnyfn` b}if mqmtkmeim xkpf qgyp"Ygvkmp ptneyogtbnpkge ne` ig}j` ymtvm ny pfmjmn`keh dkjnpmtnj nhmei{% Pfm Lnqnemym ne` Yg}pf Cgtmne nk` nhmeikmy yfg}j`njyg igbm ke xkpf pmifekinj nyykypneim% Pmifekinj nyykypneim ky ifmnq dmin}ympfm Egtpf Cgtmne tmogtb hgvmtebmep xkjj dm ndjm pg ndygtd pfm keq}py go gej{ n jkbkpm` e}bdmt go igey}jpnepy%

Pfm o}e`keh go okeneiknj ypndkjk|npkge xkjj dm pfm dkh igyp ke pfm mntj{ ptne"ykpkge% Pfmym igypy onjj kepg pftmm htg}qy<

․ Kepmtenpkgenj tmymtvmy% Pfm kepmtenpkgenj tmymtvmy go pfm imeptnj dnec ntm jkcmj{ pg dm bkekbnj% Pg ypgq pfm otmm onjj go pfm mifnehm tnpm* pfmkepmtenpkgenj igbb}ekp{ emm`y pg tmqjmekyf kepmtenpkgenj tmymtvmy otgbpfm g}pymp go n okeneiknj ypndkjk|npkge qgjki{% Qtmomtndj{* y}if tmymtvmyyfg}j` dm cmqp np n ynom qjnim ndtgn` `}tkeh pfm ifngy go pfm mntj{ ptneykpkge% Okeneiknj ypndkjk|npkge b}yp dm dnym` ge n ypne`d{ qtghtnb xkpf pfm KBO* ne` pfnp nhmei{ ine qtgvk`m pfm emimyynt{ jgney ogt pfmtmqjmekyfbmep go kepmtenpkgenj tmymtvmy%

8 Pfky ymipkge tnxy qtkbntkj{ ge Ynify &>;;0* =1>’49+ ne` Íyj}e` &4114+%



Qtgyqmipy ne` Qtmige`kpkgey ogt Bntcmp Migegbki Ptneyogtbnpkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn >;>

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nyc ogt ygbm `mdp tmjkmo ny pfm qmenjpkmy ge pfm `mon}jpm` `mdp xkjj dmf}hm% Ne nhtmmbmep xkpf pfm Qntky Ij}d njyg qtmy}qqgymy n o}eipkgekeh KBO qtghtnb%

․ D}`hmp okeneikeh% Egtpf Cgtmn ky jkcmj{ pg fnvm n jnthm d}`hmp `mokikp np pfm g}pymp* ne` kepmtenpkgenj okeneikeh xkjj dm pfm gej{ qgyykdjm yg}timpg igvmt kp% Myymepknjj{* okvm `gegty‐KBO* Xgtj` Dnec* N@D* Lnqne* ne`Yg}pf Cgtmn &pfm ]ekpm` Ypnpmy `gmy egp goomt y}if y}qqgtp+‐nqqmnt qjn}ykdjm%

Ne k`mn pfnp ky ny igbbge ny kp ky ojnxm` ky pfnp kepmtenpkgenj nyykypneim

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Ekifgjny Mdmtypn`p &411>d* pndjm ?+ egpmy pfnp Egtpf Cgtmn ijnkbm` pfnp kpyHEQ qmt inqkpn xny ny jgx ny $49; ke >;;= ke n y}dbkyykge pg pfm ]ekpm`




Enpkgey% Ke >;;4* pfm T}yykne H@Q ke i}ttmep `gjjnty xny ny jkppjm ny $61dkjjkge% Egtpf Cgtmn fny gej{ gem"ymvmepf go T}yykn‛y qgq}jnpkge* kp ky ijmntj{ n jmyy `mvmjgqm` ig}ept{* ne` kp nqqmnty pg dm y}oomtkeh xgtym bnitgmig"

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6 Ymm Egjne` &4111* 6;+ ogt n kyi}yykge%



Qtgyqmipy ne` Qtmige`kpkgey ogt Bntcmp Migegbki Ptneyogtbnpkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn >;9

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‐‐‐% 4114% D}kj`keh Inqkpnjkyb< Pfm Ptneyogtbnpkge go pfm Ogtbmt Ygvkmp Djgi%Emx [gtc< Inbdtk`hm ]ekvmtykp{ Qtmyy%

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‐‐‐% 4119% Ptneykpkge Tmqgtp 4119% Jge`ge< MDT@%




Okyifmt* Ypnejm{* ne` Njne Hmjd% >;;>% Pfm Qtgimyy go Ygiknjkyp Migegbki Ptney"ogtbnpkge% Lg}tenj go Migegbki Qmtyqmipkvmy =* eg% 0%

Fnvt{j{yf{e* Gjmf% 411>% Tmigvmt{ ne` Htgxpf ke Ptneykpkge< N @min`m go

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‐‐‐% 4110% Cgtmn nopmt Ckb Lgeh"kj% Xnyfkehpge* @%I%< Keypkp}pm ogt Kepmten"pkgenj Migegbkiy%

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Pne|k* _kpg* ne` Hmgthm Pykdg}tky% 4111% Okyinj Tmogtb gvmt Pme [mnty go Ptne"ykpkge% Xgtckeh qnqmt eg% >>9% Xnyfkehpge* @%I%< KBO%

Xkjjknbyge* Lgfe% >;;=% Xfnp Tgjm ogt I}ttmei{ Dgnt`y7 Xnyfkehpge @%I%<

Keypkp}pm ogt Kepmtenpkgenj Migegbkiy%



Qtgyqmipy ne` Qtmige`kpkgey ogt Bntcmp Migegbki Ptneyogtbnpkge ke Egtpf Cgtmn >;=

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‐‐‐% 4114% Ptneykpkge< Pfm Oktyp Pme [mnty% Xnyfkehpge* @%I%< Xgtj` Dnec%

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Ne`mty Íyj}e` ky pfm @ktmipgt go pfm T}yykne ne` M}tnykne Qtghtnb np pfm IntemhkmMe`gxbmep ogt Kepmtenpkgenj Qmnim ke Xnyfkehpge* @%I% Fm pfnecy igeomtmeim

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Qgyykdjm Ogtby go KepmtenpkgenjIggqmtnpkge ne` Nyykypneim

pg Egtpf Cgtmn



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prospects and preconditions for market economic transformation in north korea

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