project strengthening results- oriented management
TRANSCRIPT
Long-term strategic planning: presentation of Lithuanian and foreign experience, importance of adaptation to environmental changes and scenario planning
June 2020
Project "Strengthening Results-Oriented Management Capacities”
No. 10.1.1-ESFA-V-912-01-0023
The event will be recorded
Introduction
Break
10.00 – 10.15
12.15 – 12.45
Lukas Savickas
Birutė Purvaneckaitė
Scenario planning:
• Introduction
• Workshop in groups
• Presentation of results / reflection on the task
12.45 – 14.15Jessica Carragher
Wallner / PwC
Agenda
Wrap-up and key takeaways14.15 – 14.30Agnė Ignatavičienė
Birutė Purvaneckaitė
Preparation for the renewal of State Progress
Strategy “Lithuania 2030”10.15 – 10.45
Sigita
Trainauskienė
Perceiving the future, not planning it: agile strategic
planning and what we can learn from other countries10.45 – 11.30
Jan
Sturesson
Long-term strategic planning:
a case study of Sweden11.30 – 12.15
Jessica Carragher
Wallner
PwC
Preparation for the renewal of State Progress Strategy “Lithuania 2030”
Pasirengimas Valstybės pažangos strategijos „Lietuva 2030” atnaujinimui
1Sigita Trainauskienė, policy analyst at the
Government Strategic Analysis Center Strata
10.15 – 10.45
ABOUT ME:
2000-2015 - Office of the Seimas
Director of International Department
2015 – Kaunas University of Technology, PhD
2016 – M. Mažvydas National Library
Head, Communications Department
2017 – Lithuanian Military Academy
Head, Research Centre
2018 – present - Policy analyst/ Team leader at STRATA (former MOSTA)
“Questioning existing operating models and active innovation are
essential parts of strategic thinking. According to such authorities as
the OECD, capability for renewal will be a key success factor for
nations”.
„ Pagrindinės strateginio mąstymo sudėtinės dalys yra esamų veiklos
modelių kvestionavimas ir aktyvios inovacijos. EBPO teigimu, gebėjimas
atsinaujinti bus pagrindinis tautų sėkmės faktorius “.
PROJECT ON DEVELOPING STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP INSTRUMENTS IN GOVERNMENT:
RECOMMENDATIONS.
Publications of the Finnish government 2019
LIETUVA 2050 – WHY WE NEED A [NEW] STRATEGY?
WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE CURRENT STRATEGY?
https://www.delfi.lt/multimedija/mes15/romas-svedas-
lietuva-gyvena-be-strategijos.d?id=81006537
ORGANIZATIONAL LIFE-CYCLE
1) start-up of the activity
2) growth
3) plateauting
4) decline or renewal
Plateauing – the most dangerous stage. Without new goals and plans, organisations stagnate, and usually, die.
Stabilizacija - pats pavojingiausias etapas. Neturėdamos naujų tikslų ir planų, organizacijos stagnuoja ir dažniausiai žūsta.
WHAT MAKES A GOOD
STRATEGY?
According to Jack Welsh, the head of General Electric, the mission should answer the question of how you intend to win in this business. The "win" indicator protects against the widespread mistake of formulating a mission, when the goal is to do everything, for everyone, always. Also, such goal formulation encourages organizations to refine and describe their strengths and weaknesses, choose the right people, tools, make the necessary investments. ”
„General Electric Company“ vadovo Jacko Welsho, misija turėtųatsakyti į klausimą, kaip ketinate šioje veikloje laimėti. „Laimėjimo“ indikatorius apsaugo nuo visuotinai paplitusios misijos formulavimo klaidos, kuomet siekiama daryti viską, visiems, visados. Taip pat, toks tikslo formulavimas skatina organizacijas išgryninti ir apibūdinti jų stiprybes ir silpnybes, pasirinkti tinkamus žmones, priemones, padaryti reikiamas investicijas”
WEF GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX (2019)
Lithuania
THE ESSENCE OF THE STATE:
“It comes to be for the sake of life and exists for the sake of the good life.” (POLITICS; I.2.1252b27–30). )
VALSTYBĖS ESMĖ:
„Ji sukurta vardan gyvenimo ir gyvuoja vardan gero gyvenimo“
Oxford Saïd Business School
VISIONS:
“/../is the government’s long-term overarching strategy to make [country name] a better country for all of us”.
„In 2025, [country name] is an inventive, caring and safe country where we all can feel important.
“A chance to join the economic big league”
“it’s not about technology”
„/../ yra vyriausybės ilgalaikė visa apimanti strategija, kaip padaryti [šalies pavadinimas] geresne šalimi mums visiems“.
„2025 m. [šalies pavadinimas] yra išradinga, rūpestinga irsaugi šalis, kurioje visi galime jaustis svarbūs.
„Galimybė įstoti į didelę ekonominę lygą“
„Tai ne apie technologijas“
INSPIRATIONS:
HORIZON SCANNING
STEEP METHOD
S- society
T-technology
E- economy
E- environment
P- politics
WHY SCENARIO PLANNING?
Scenario planning has become increasingly popular in recent years. Why?
It’s a conjunction of factors – major organizations began using it, and people havebecome disenchanted with conventional forecasting, which is treating the world asthough it was yesterday. I’m flying British Airways to Copenhagen. I assume theyknow how much fuel they need, and how tired their pilot will be after a number ofworking hours, because they have a track record based on big amounts of data. Butthere are parts of our future where yesterday’s data are no longer helpful. Say,planning for a future after Brexit. In scenario planning, we talk about TUNA –Turbulence, Unpredictable uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity. Any one of thoseconditions will make traditional forecasting unhelpful.
Pastaraisiais metais vis labiau populiarėja scenarijų planavimas. Kodėl?
Tai veiksnių junginys - didžiosios organizacijos pradėjo juo naudotis, nes žmonėspradeda nusivilti tradiciniu prognozavimu, kuris aptaria tokį pasaulį, koks buvovakar. Aš skrendu „British Airways“ į Kopenhagą. Aš manau, kad jie žino, kiek jiemsreikia degalų ir koks pavargęs bus jų pilotas po kelių darbo valandų, nes jiekaupia didelę įvairių duomenų bazę. Tačiau dalyje mūsų ateities vakarykščiaiduomenys jau nėra naudingi. Tarkime, planuojant ateitį po „Brexit“. Planuodamiscenarijų, mes kalbame apie TUNA - turbulenciją, nenuspėjamą neapibrėžtumą,naujumą ir dviprasmiškumą. Dėl bet kurios iš šių sąlygų tradicinis prognozavimastampa nenaudingas.
Dr. Rafael Ramirez, Oxford Saïd Business School
WHERE WE ARE NOW:
Methodology and concept forLITHUANIA 2050 preparation:
oDetailed structure of a planned paper
oMethodology
oPlan of preparation process
oProject proposal
Initiating group: LRVK and STRATA
Goda Aleksaitė
Dr. Vilius Bartninkas
Vaida Budzevičienė
Jurgita Lukaševičienė
Dr. Vaida Obelenė
Dr. Sigita Trainauskienė
Dr. Giedrius Viliūnas
MAIN STEPS:Exhibition
June 2021
Megatrends analysis
September 2020
Scenario planning
February 2021
Interactive workshops
December 2020
Lietuva 2050
December 2021
SO, HOW ARE WE GOING TO WIN?
TAIGI, KAIP MES RUOŠIAMĖS
LAIMĖTI?
PwC
Your questions?
PwC
Perceiving the future, not planning it: agile strategic planning and what we can learn from other countries
Ateities suvokimas, ne jos planavimas: lankstus strateginis planavimas ir tai, ko galime išmokti iš kitų šalių
2Jan Sturesson, International strategy consultant,
speaker & investor, Sweden
10.45 – 11.30
History repeats itself…
What have we learned? Now
business intelligence or still business ignorance?
Time to give up traditional strategic planning? From the
known to the unknown!
Time for real time knowledge navigation? From
slow analogue to faster digital!
New downloads for perceiving the ”right” future…
The New Normal - high level uncertain and disruptive winds are blowing - building windshields or windmills??
New geopolitical landscape requires new skills sets on international - bi & multinational collaboration
Corona has now been attached to all strategic agendas for quite some time - What’s next…?
Future of trade is about capture knowledge flow and data analytics
Future of planning is about visions, interpreted week signals, relevant scenarios connected with rapid prototyping
We need a new national strategic agenda by future of industry and need for the future skills
We need a ministry and a minister of the future and a committee of the future in the parliament
A leadership that creates; meaning and energy!!
Some overarching questions - Quizzics - the art and science of questioning…
Do we - Lithuania - take the lead the new in-between spaces we identify?
New industries and clusters / cross clusters in the making - etc.
Do we up-load or download?
What is the biggest roadblock for continues Lithuania success?
FINALY - Do we create or consume a legacy?
IntelligenceForesight Imagination
New Ingredients for Agile FUTURE NAVIGATION…
How do we understand:- The POST corona world- The global economy- The cyber trade war- U.K and non EU European
nations- Emerging technologies- Future of Skills- What questions to ask…
CREATE SCENARIOS apply WISDOM to make RAPID
PROTOTYPES and link it to SMART FUNDING…
Ongoing interpretation of WEAK SIGNALS …
Energizing
Visions
A NEW Lithuania Strategic Agenda
Knowledge Navigation…
Direction
Dimensions of Business Intelligence…
Leve
l of
Innova
tive
Renew
al / S
peed
Position
Future of…
• Technology• Values• Skills• Trade & commerce• Logistics• Value chains…• Data
Speed
YESTYERDAYS’s Position
• Traditional statistics → Input
Indicators• Knowledge management• Quantity and volume of
knowledge and data• Research focus• Proactive spirit• Standardization• Ignorance• Low knowledge volatility
FUTURE Aspirations
• New relevant Impact Indicators (KII’s)• Integration of; position, direction and
speed indicators• Knowledge flow, cultivation and
landscaping• Machine learning AI, IOT, VR, OR…• Interactive spirit → knowledge
navigation • New imagination to perceive and
anticipate unknown futures• Hi knowledge volatility - increased
density, friction and frequency
TODAY’s Situation
• Performance (output) indicators →
(KPI’s)• Knowledge leadership• Quality of knowledge and analytics• Real time analysis via social media • Forsearch approach and knowing• Reactive spirit• Non standardization• Intelligence• Knowing• Increased knowledge volatility
The Approach to Strategic
Knowledge Navigation…
Perspectives of Knowledge Navigation I
➢ From planning and mapping to real time navigation
➢From ignorance to intelligence
➢From tangibles to intangibles
➢ From explicit to tacit knowledge and weak signals
➢From industries and sectors to integrated ECO systems
➢From complacency to courage’s and energizing visions
➢From personal profit to collective purpose
➢ From general education to personal skills
➢ From boundaries to in-between spaces
➢ From knowing to the unknown
➢From structures to relationships
Perspectives of Knowledge Navigation II
➢ From planning to experimenting
➢ From doing to orchestration and improvisation
➢ From technology focus to include ethics and VALUES…
➢ From best practise to best option
➢ From knowledge to wisdom
➢ From answers to questions
➢ From centralized hierarchies to decentralised and distributed knowledge networks
➢ From compliance to value creation
➢ From financial capital to multiple capitals (IC…)
➢ From full scale to rapid prototyping
➢ From knowledge cities to to wise places
➢ From KPIs ti KIIs
Global Knowledge Index 2019
LITHUANIA
www.knowledge4all.org
Ranks
Top 5 countries
Switzerland
Finland
United States
Singapore
Luxembourg
www.knowledge4all.org
Global Knowledge Index 2019 – Lithuania
www.knowledge4all.org
Lithuania
Performance
www.knowledge4all.org
Global Knowledge Index 2019 – Lithuania
www.knowledge4all.org
www.knowledge4all.org
Global Knowledge Index 2019 – Lithuania
www.knowledge4all.org
Adult literacy rate ranking 4/136 countries.
Mean years f schooling (ISCED 1 or higher) ranking 8/136 countries.
Education challenges
• Increase government expenditure on primary education.
R&D challenges
• Increase the expenditures on research and development.
Labour challenges
• Ease labour regulations and promote ethical work environment.
Recommendations Gender challenges
• Integrate women more in political work.
Environmental challenges
• Reduce CO2 emissions.
Future of Knowledge
-From Linear to Exponential…
Jan Sturesson
International Strategy Consultant
2019
Future of Knowledge - A Foresight Report
Dubai 19-20 November 2019
Conceptual model “Future of Knowledge Navigation”What does people talk about in social media in our nation?
41
Summary of Findings• Comparing Estonia and Lithuania, Estonia is ahead of Lithuania in terms of NIC in general. However, Lithuania is better in human capitaland its renewal capital was catching up fast. There is a good chance that Lithuania can be on par with Estonia in NIC in the near future. • Norway had outstanding progress in almostevery component capital of NIC, over the past 18 years, especially as an advancedcountry. • Denmark had good and stable growth in NIC as well. • Sweden declined a little in human capitaland renewal capital (a warning• sign for long-term intangible assets loss). • Finland declined in NIC, human capital, market capital, and renewal capital. It seemsthat Finland had not yet recovered fully from the 2008 global financial crisis. Copingmeasures may need to be taken.
National Intellectual
Capital Trajectory –
Nordic countries, Estonia and
Lithuania Carol Y.Y. Lin June 1,
2020
Process
Capital
Human
CapitalMarket
Capital
Renewal
Capital
Human capital and renewal capital are long-term intangible assets. Lithuania had the best progress, followed by Norway, Denmark, and Estonia. Finland and Sweden had regression.
IC – Intellectual Capital→ Tool for Navigation
Relational Capital
▪ Customer Relationships▪ Supplier Relationships▪ Public Relationships▪ Investor Relationships▪ Relationships to Co-operation Partners
Human Capital▪ Professional Competence▪ Social Competence▪ Employee Motivation▪ Leadership Ability▪ Tacit Knowledge
Structural Capital▪ Internal Co-operation and Knowledge Transfer▪ Management Instruments▪ IT and Explicit Knowledge▪ Product Innovation▪ Process Optimization and Innovation▪ Corporate Culture
Intelligence Capital▪ Creative Social Renewal▪ Social Intelligence▪ Culture of Openness▪ Visionary Leadership▪ Cohesive Society▪ Self-Governance▪ Connectivity & Digitalisation▪ Experimentation & Learning
Individual
Organization
Society
Inspiration from Frauenhofer, Will, Edvinsson and North?
Learning from
others
Singapore
UAE
UAE
Extremely strong visions and motivation
“Different” system - quick decisions… in each emirate
Branding approach - A Global Hub of everything… World Expo, DKS,
Experience industry
Insourcing of skills and knowledge - Louvre´, Harvard
Global centers - Finance, Smart cities, knowledge, Life science
Future digital technology key focus
Trying to get more sustainable…
Swiss
Extreme decentralization - cantons -local elections
Government and NFP nation - UN, Red Cross, etc.
Financial Industry
Innovation - Swiss watches …
Infrastructure focus - transport and mobility
Efficiency and KPI focused
Clear central coordination linked to national policy
Knowledge based economy
Attritive for future knowledge workers -high liveability
Singapore
Strong strategic Policy Culture - Lee Kuan Yew University - strategic policy office -SPO
State capitalism - central decision making
Whole of Government - WOG - approach
Always top 10 in public benchmarking
Human capital focus - schools system focus
Insourcing innovation (Nordics) strong on implementation - water & food
Sustainable cities (nation) approach - Urban regeneration programs
A strong green strategy - planting trees
High level security and safety for citizens
Social programs increasing
Futuristic approach and practical delivery with effiency
Luxembourg Diversification of economic sectors: Investment on
diversification of economic sectors from historical Steel
and Agriculture, to Finance Sector to Life
Sciences/Healthcare Research → followed by Space
Sector
Support to Industry through Publicly lead top-down
Cluster Initiatives structured under Luxinnovation
Investments on Digital Infrastructure/Economy (e.g.
Big Data Infrastructure, High Performance Computing,
5G, ultra-fast connection, AI etc. ) as a cross-cutting
enabler for all other sectors as well as
Attraction of big tech companies to place their
operations such as; Skype, Amazon, Google Data
Centre etc. TAX LEVEL
Investment into up/re-skilling workforce
through Skills Bridge Initiative lead by PwC:
Attracting international skilled workforce
Knowledge Vision - Steps to the Future…
Information
Facts
In a context
Understanding
Knowledge
Experiences gives wisdom
Being applied
Skills
Welfare
Good Societal Growth
A New Focus on
FUTURE SKILLS…
and it’s development
Are there serious
attempts by your
government to
transform into a
"knowledge society"?
Comprehensive and integrated education system
Continuous Training
Advanced digital infrastructure
Creative and open economy
Research, Development and Innovation
Knowledge 4 all - UNDP
Society
PwC
Long-term strategic planning: a case study of Sweden
Ilgalaikis strateginis planavimas: Švedijos atvejo analizė
3Jessica Carragher Wallner, Strategic advisor and
facilitator, Director at PwC Sweden Advisory
services, Sweden
11.30 – 12.15
PwC
SwedenHow Sweden is governed
Government office
The Government Office is a
government agency that acts as the
Government's staff and supports the
Government in governing Sweden
and realising its policies.
Regions
Sweden is also governed at regional
and local level. Regional level
consists of 21 counties. Each county
has a regional central government
authority, the county administrative
board.
Municipalities
The municipalities are governed by
local politicians elected by the
people. The highest decision-making
bodies are the municipal
councils/city councils. Municipal
councils/city councils have the
responsibility to work with strategic
foresight and present a vision for the
future on a local level.
2
3
1
Governance
PwC
● In general the work with strategic
foresight depends on the needs and
wishes of the Government and is not
regulated in the working procedures
of the Government Office
● Most work with strategic foresight is
done as a part of the mission of the
Government Agencies
● The Government also has several
consulting councils which have the
responsibility among other things to
work with long-term issues within
their field of expertise
● Municipal councils/city councils have
the responsibility to work with
strategic foresight and present a
vision for the future on a local level
Strategic foresight
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Strategic foresight in Sweden – case study
PwC
The institute has two tasks
● The first task is to conduct future
studies*, to promote a future-
oriented perspective in Swedish
research, and to use and develop
appropriate theory and methodology
● The second task (which could also
be named a mission) is to stimulate
an open and broad discussion about
possibilities and threats to the future
social development
The Swedish institute for Future Studies
*The current research program "What future?
Challenges and choices for the 21st century” runs
between 2015 and 2020
Founded in 1973 as a part of the Office
of the Prime Minister
Established as a stand alone agency since 1987
Board: 9 people
Institute: 90 people (10 administrators)
PwC
Facts
● The project consisted of three parts: The
Green transition and competitiveness, The
Future of work and Global cooperation
● The responsible minister had appointed
three groups on these themes with
representatives from the business sector,
civil society organisations and research
institutes
● The task of the analysis groups was to
identify challenges and problems,
formulate visions, develop strategies and
deliver suggestions on priority measures
in the medium and longer term
● The Secretariat for Strategic
Development, in the Government Office,
supported the work of Mission
Mission The Future
The project begun in February 2015 and
ended in April 2016 when the final report
was submitted to the Government
PwC
Facts
● From 2012 the mission was to make
situational analysis, to identify strategic areas
that should be considered in the digitalisation
policy, to investigate the need for promotion at
the national level and to follow up the work of
the regional digital agendas
● In 2016, the Digitalisation Commission had
the task to publish reports about the effects of
digitalisation on individuals and society, and
to support the Government's efforts in
promoting digitalisation issues
● A number of writers, active in academia,
research institutes and industry, were
engaged to contribute to the reports
● The Commission also used consultant firms to
provide data on digitalisation indexes and to
make an overall assessment of whether
Sweden meets its IT policy objective
The Digital Commission
From 2012 to 2015
PwC
Facts
● Due to Covid - 19 the region of
Stockholm has initiated an analyses
of how the region responded to the
Covid - 19 outbreak from a
management point of view
● Using a timeline go back to the
outbreak and look at measurements
taken to validate initiatives and
responses to Covid - 19
● Not finished and will probably be an
ongoing learning process
Covid -19 response Stockholm Region
From 2020 -> WIP
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Strategic foresight in Sweden – lessons learned
● It is critically important to ensure independence of an office conducting strategic foresight research. The
Swedish institute for Future Studies is partly funded by the government but is a stand alone institution
● It is crutial to engage Government officials, politicians, Academia, research institutes and experts in the
process of co-creation and mix them
● It is also important to test different approaches and not to be afraid to test and test again
● The positive outcome with the chain of command is that the government offices are trusted to be
experts on their area and are delivering insights to the government both by request but also as a part of
their own strategic agenda for their area of expertise
● There are several areas that are better managed in a cross functional way. This is where a special
committee is often appointed with a task to look at digitalisation, innovation or sustainability on an
overall national level
● Dare
PwC
February 2020
63
Break / pertrauka
12.15 – 12.45
PwC
Uncertainty management and scenario planning
Neapibrėžtumų valdymas ir scenarijų planavimas
4Jessica Carragher Wallner, Strategic advisor and
facilitator, Director at PwC Sweden Advisory
services, Sweden
12.45 – 13.15
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“There are known knowns; there are things we know we
know.
We also know there areknown unknowns; that is to say we know there are some
things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we
don’t know we don’t know.”
- Donald Rumsfeld, 21st US Secretary of Defense,
2002
PwC
Why work with uncertainties and scenario planning?
66
Challenge
Mission
● The rapid change in our society poses a challenge for Governments
to anticipate
○ The direction of change
○ The impact for citizens and employees
○ The Government's role in the changing society
● To identify strategies and thought processes to ensure that the
Government is relevant in the medium and long term in an
uncertain future
○ Increase understanding and consensus on future
development for places, companies and people
○ Improve the ability to managing future uncertainty
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More secure and trustworthy
We need to be more prepared to discuss
future issues that affect the territory and our
citizens, industry areas and markets.
Greater understanding of our services
We need to be aware of what we offer and manage
on a daily basis, and feel comfortable in identifying
new opportunities in new areas.
More comfortable and curious
The world is changing dramatically, driven by a
rapid pace of development. We need to be able
to move comfortably in a changing
environment, and be able to act and adapt to
the challenges we meet.
Lithuan
ia's
Go
ve
rnm
en
t
Lith
ua
nia
's
Govern
ments
se
rvic
es
Meet and exceed the expectations of
new and existing citizens
By offering new and in-depth insights and
smart services, we can help our citizens to be
prepared for future challenges and support in
relevant issues.
Future-proof the Governments offer
Identify and optimize our offer for new and existing
citizens and be forward-looking and future-
orientated in the way we work. We need to be one
step ahead and be prepared for events that can
affect our territory.
Improved profiling
Strengthen the Government's reputation and
internally and externally. Provide cutting-
edge solutions on the challenges of
employees and citizens. Improve the range
of services and expertise the Government is
being recognized for - like digital services
Why should you focus even more on strategic foresight?
PwC
What uncertainties should Lithuania focus
on?2
Is Lithuania doing the right things? What
further initiatives should be initiated?4
How do we ensure that the management
integrates scenarios as part of the ongoing
strategy work?5
Idea generation
How will the development affect Lithuania?3
Scenarios
Impact analysis
What does Lithuania need to take into
consideration given the rapid change in the
society?1 Desktop research
Iterative and continuous method to
include work scenarios as part of the
strategy work/business plan
Strategy integration
Strategic tool for evaluating and
prioritizing initiatives and generating new
ideas to face the changing society
Method to evaluate the impact
of each scenario on Lithuania
Tools to create consensus and facilitate
the work with uncertainties.
Create focus.
Overview of trends and uncertainties
that will impact Lithuania in the future
How is it related? How do we work with public sector?The process!
68
PwC
From trends to scenarios
69
Trends and uncertainties Intersection of major uncertainties Scenario cross
• Data collection, workshops, in-depth
investigations och trend analysis resulted in a
trend report including trends and uncertainties
with impact on the sector / country.
• Priorities and validations resulted in a number
of trends and uncertainties with a major
impact on the sector / country.
• Uncertainties that has been validated to have
the greatest impact on the future, are
intersected to evaluate the effect of different
combinations.
• This results in a large number of scenarios,
where each scenario have a relatively limited
impact on the future.
• A broader perspective.
• To cover areas of interest.
• To examine the implications of the speed and
extent of progress.
Analysis of the business environment
Trends and uncertainties with
significant impact
Slow Flexible
Revolution
Evolution
Data collection
Workshops
Analysis
In-depth investigation
PwC
Characteristics of WISA model
● It evaluates different very short
scenario examples to predict the
effects on possible outcomes for the
country, organisation or subject
● What-if scenario analysis is a
planning and modelling technique
used to yield insights on positive and
negative outcome based on
selectively changing inputs
What if - scenario analysesIn general, a what-if scenario is an
informal speculation about how a given
situation might be handled.
PwC
Scenarios and what if scenarios can be used in several ways within the organization
71
Scenarios
Impact analysis
2
Acceptance
3
Annual cycle
4
Management
team
1
Are we doing
the right
things?
• Validate ongoing efforts and identify how Lithuania is
preparing for future uncertainties. Identify potential gaps
that can have major impact in the future.
• Create a common understanding and a starting point in
discussions with the management team. Report
continuously, supported by data analysis and monitoring of
indicators - both as a process and clearly illustrated.
• Increase the understanding of the organization why action
is needed. Express the feeling of what a possible future
might look like and its potential consequences for the
Government.
• Monitoring trends and uncertainties.
• Integrate scenarios in existing processes, including
macro processes, strategy processes and strategic
documentation.
Strategy
Continuous
implementation
Steering
5
Long-term
plan
• Include scenarios in a long-term action plan. Both annually
and over time to ensure proactivity and reduce reactivity.
PwC
Scenario planning: workshop
Scenarijų planavimas: darbas mažose grupėse 5
13.15 – 14.15
73
What IF’s
EN:
• What if there would be a larger increase of cyber threats and cyber-
attacks on Lithuania? – Jan
• What if there would be an even larger increase in young people with
higher education to leave Lithuania? – Jessica
• What if COVID-19 would last long and deep? – Birutė
• What if the European Union collapses? – Simas
• What if the yearly average temperature would rise with 1,5 degrees? – Ieva
O kas, JEIGU LT:
• Kas būtų, jeigu reikšmingai padidėtų kibernetinių grėsmių ir atakų prieš
Lietuvą apimtis? - Jan
• Kas būtų, jeigu dar labiau išaugtų aukštąjį išsilavinimą turinčių
jaunuolių, išvykstančių iš Lietuvos, skaičius? - Jessica
• Kas būtų, jeigu COVID-19 truktų ilgai ir turėtų rimtų padarinių? - Birutė
• Kas būtų, jeigu Europos Sąjunga iširtų? - Simas
• Kas būtų, jeigu vidutinė metinė temperatūra pakiltų 1,5 laipsnio? - Ieva
PwC
Framework for the task / užduoties eiga
74
TOGETHER IN GROUP
(10-15 min.)
● Present the positive
implications to the group and
decide on the 3 most
important to take further
● Present the negative
implications to the group and
decide on the 3 most
important to take further
TOGETHER IN GROUP
(10-15 min.)
● Pick out the MOST important
implication - positive OR
negative and start to discuss
what you could do to meet
that implication
● Be prepared to tell us about
your findings
BY YOURSELF (3 min.)
● Think for 2-3 minutes quietly
about the What - if scenario
● What does it tell you?
● Write down the positive and
negative implications for
Lithuania that you think of
KARTU GRUPĖJE
(10-15 min.)
● Pasirinkite SVARBIAUSIĄ
padarinį – pozityvų ar negatyvų
– ir aptarkite grupėje, kas turėtų
būti padaryta, kad šis padarinys
būtų sėkmingai suvaldytas
● Pasiruoškite papasakoti apie
savo atradimus visai grupei
KARTU GRUPĖJE
(10-15 min.)
● Kiekvienas pristatykite
pozityvius padarinius grupei ir
kartu nuspręskite, kurie 3 yra
svarbiausi
● Kiekvienas pristatykite
negatyvius padarinius grupei ir
kartu nuspręskite, kurie 3 yra
svarbiausi
INDIVIDUALIAI (3 min.)
● 2-3 minutes tyliai pagalvokite
apie „O kas, jeigu“ scenarijų
● Ką jis jums sako?
● Užsirašykite, kokią pozityvią ir
negatyvią įtaką šis scenarijus
galėtų turėti Lietuvai
1 2 3
WORK IN
GROUPS
EN:
• Please follow the invitation in your calendars to
join a separate meeting and start the discussion in
a small group
• Small teams will be guided by moderators
• Be ready to come back at 13.45
DARBAS
GRUPĖSELT:
• Jūsų kalendoriuje – kvietimas darbui mažoje
grupėje, prisijunkite ir pradėkite diskusiją
• Mažų grupių darbą koordinuos moderatoriai
• Sugrįžkite 13.45 val.
76
WELCOME
BACK
SVEIKI
SUGRĮŽĘ
13.45 – 14.15
Key takeaways:
• What are the outcomes / results of your discussion?
• How / where could scenario planning be applied in the
strategic planning process?
Ką pasiimate iš šios užduoties:
• Kokie Jūsų diskusijos rezultatai?
• Kaip / kur scenarijų planavimas galėtų būti pritaikytas
strateginio planavimo procese?
PwC
Pagrindinis principas –nuolatinė navigacija:
• Atidi įgyvendinimo stebėsena
• Periodinė peržiūra / atnaujinimas
77
Practical application of scenarios and what if scenarios
Preparation of long-term strategy
documents, e. g. Lithuania 2050
(30 years)
Preparation of long term strategic planning documents (10 years)
Preparation of medium-term planning documents (4-10 years)
Preparation of short-term planning
documents (1-3 years)
Strategic planning level
Programming level
Operational level
Ilgalaikių strategijų rengimas, pvz., Lietuva
2050(30 metų)
Ilgalaikių strateginio planavimo dokumentų
rengimas (10 metų)
Vidutinės trukmės planavimo dokumentų rengimas (4-10 metų)
Trumpos trukmės planavimo dokumentų rengimas (1-3 metai)
Strateginio planavimo lygmuo
Programavimo lygmuo
Veiklos lygmuo
Key principle – ongoing navigation:
• Close monitoring of the implementation
• Periodical review / update
PwC
Wrap-up and key takeaways
Apibendrinimas 6
14.15 – 14.30
PwC
February 2020
79
Your questions / reflections
Jūsų klausimai / pamąstymai
PwC
Thank you!