prof. em. ron lesthaeghe vruchtbaarheidstransities: 1750-2010 oorzaken & gevolgen. ron...
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Prof. em. Ron Lesthaeghe
Vruchtbaarheidstransities:1750-2010
Oorzaken & Gevolgen.
Ron Lesthaeghe
Landen proportioneel aan hun bevolkingsomvang, 2002.
Twee Vruchtbaarheidstransities
1. De initiële vruchtbaarheidsdaling en de gestage verbetering van de vruchtbaarheidscontrole & anticonceptie. 1750-1975 in Europa, nog gaande in meerdere ontwikkelingslanden. Verdwijnen van 3e en hogere rang kinderen.
2. De grote uitstel van ouderschap, partiële of gehele recuperatie op oudere leeftijd, en vruchtbaarheid structureel & langdurig onder het vervangingspeil. Toename kinderloosheid. Vaak samenlopend met ontplooiing nieuwe en niet-conventionele gezinsvormen => “Second Demographic Transition”. Ontwikkelt zich na de baby boom van de jaren 60.
THREE CONDITIONS FOR INNOVATION:R and W and A
• Ready = new behavior must be advantageous (conscious cost/benefit calculus)
• Willing = new behavior must be ethically acceptable (religious and moral legitimacy)
• Able = there must be technical means for its realization (material, legal, organizational, often at macro level)
READY => Sociale en economische ontwikkeling
WILLING => Culturele en mentale “revolutie”
ABLE => Family Planning, gezondheidsvoorzieningen,legale aanpassingen.
…EN OP MACRO NIVEAU :
• READY = ECONOMICALLY ADVANTAGEOUS• WILLING = CULTURALLY ACCEPTABLE• ABLE = MEANS AVAILABLE
S = R and W and A
The slowest moving condition can become a bottleneck.
De conditie die het traagst evolueert remt de ganse transitie af: deze wordt “the limiting condition”, de “flessenhalsconditie”
De eerste vruchtbaarheidstransitie
• Illustratie van R én W én A : het Belgische voorbeeld => W als flessenhalsconditie.
• De wereldsituatie (totale vruchtbaarheidscijfers TFR en hun evolutie)
Vote1919
1.0.8.6.4.20.0
DELTA_IG
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
0.0
Region
Brussels
Wallonia
Flanders
Total Population
Rsq = 0.7936
Waremme
Virton
VerviersTournai
Thuin
Soignies
Philippeville
Nivelles
Neufchâteau
Namur
Mons
Marche
Liège
Huy
Dinant
Charleroi
Bastogne
Ath
Arlon
Ypres
Veurne
TurnhoutTongeren
Tielt
St. Nik laas
Roeselare
OudenaardeOstend
Mechelen
Maaseik
Leuven
Kortrijk
Hasselt
Ghent
Eeklo
Diksmuide
Dendermonde
Brussels
Bruges
Antwerp
Aalst
Delta Ig = proportion of totalmarital fertility decline alreadyrealised by 1910
Vote 1919 = Proportion ofVotes for 3 secular partiesLiberal + Socialist + Communist
Long term spatial continuity in Belgium: Relationship between 2SDT features (cohabitation 1981 and non-marital fertility 1992) and early 19th Century secularization.
r = +.832 r = +.900
Median level 1970
Median level 2000
TFR= 2.1
TFR=1.5
Decline in National TFRs between 1970 and 2000, LDCs and MDCs
Totale vruchtbaarheidscijfers, ca 2006
< 2
2 tot 3
3 tot 4
4 tot 5
5 en >
1. Eerste uitstelbewegingen (Noord & West Europa) starten einde jaren 60, en leiden tot dalingen van de Totale Vruchtbaarheidscijfers (TFR) tot onder 2 kinderen. Typisch dal : 1.5 tot 1.6 kinderen.
Deze landen beëindigen de uitstel na 2000, en hebben vrij sterke recuperatie van de vruchtbaarheid na de leeftijd van 30 jaar. => herstel van de periode TFRs tot 1.7 a 2.0 kinderen.
2. Zuid en Centraal* Europa: sterker uitstel en minder recuperatie =>
TFRs onder de 1.5 en vaak onder de 1.3 = “Lowest Low Fertility”
*Omvat Duitsland, Oostenrijk, Zwitserland.
3. Voorheen communistische landen kennen spectaculaire uitstel gedurende de jaren 90. Sommigen (Tsjech Rep bijv.) recupereren beter dan andere (Rusland bijv). TFRs dalen tot onder 1.3 en zelfs onder 1.0 (ex DDR) => tweede groep “Lowest Low Fertility”
2e transitie : uitstel van ouderschap, differentiële recuperatie op oudere leeftijden
But a positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation
Bulgaria
Poland
GreeceSlovakia
Luxembourg
The NetherlandsUnited Kingdom Finland
Denmark
France
Sweden
Lithuania
Latvia
Spain
ItalyHungary
Austria
EstoniaCzech Rep.
Portugal
Germany
RussiaCroatia
Ukraine
Romania
Ireland
Iceland
Slovenia
Belarus
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20TFR
SDT Index
Figure 8a: SDT Index and TFR in 2004 (r=0.71)
All stronger recuperation countries
No or weak recup & late starters
Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008.
1.50
Deficits CCFR Netherlands
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
<20 <20-24 <20-30 <20-34 <20-39 <20-44 <20-45+
Age Brackets and Baseline (1940-44)
Deficets, Thousands of Births
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
1980-1984
Deficits CCFR Portugal
-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200
<20 <20-24 <20-30 <20-34 <20-39 <20-44 <20-45+
Age Brackets and Baseline (1940-44)
Deficets, Thousands of Births
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
1980-1984
TROUGH RECUPPTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e
Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to baseRecup = part of trough recuperated by age 40Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44, predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005.
RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673, all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL.
ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation.The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.
SDT and TFRs : inconsistent or double effect ?
Social & Economic constraints (education, employment, housing …)
Self-actualisation; “open future”
Emancipation: gender equity
Affirmative policies re gender roles, child care, reduced opportunity costs of motherhood.
Postponement
Recuperation
Overall fertility
+
+
_
+SDT
Gevolgen van de vruchtbaarheidsdaling
• 1. Afremmen bevolkingsgroei
• 2. Bij structurele vruchtbaarheid onder vervangingspeil = doorhollende bevolkingskrimp (negative or “Shrink” momentum”)
• 3. Extra bevolkingsveroudering bovenop deze veroorzaakt door verlenging levensduur.
Pierre-François Verhulst : De logistische curve, 1842(Of het wiskundig model van limieten van groei)
Omvang wereldbevolking
7 miljard
2011
! Log schaal !
Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)
Negative Growth Momentum : Italy
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2016 2031 2046 2061 2076 2091 2106 2121 2136
Year
Size
2016
2031
2046
2061
never
Year TFR reaches 2.06 again i.e. Replacement level
TFR back to 2.06Children (from 1.25)
FemalePopulationSize
X
X
X
X
X = about stationary
De gevolgen van lage vruchtbaarheid: doorlopende krimp.
Percent 65+ Italian women if TFR is restored to replacement level at various dates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101 2111 2121 2131 2141
Year
Pct 65+
2.06 in 2016
2.06 in 2031
2.06 in 2046
2.06 in 2061
never
Absolute aantallen ouderen van 65+ jaar
Voor een volgende keer :
“ ARE MIGRANTS SUBSTITUTES FOR BIRTHS ?”
articles and papers can be downloaded from
http://www.sdt.psc.isr.umich.edu
http://www.vub.ac.be/SOCO/Lesthaeghe.htm
Prof. Marleen Temmerman
The Exceptionalism of Family Planning
Prof. Dr. Marleen TemmermanUGent
Debat « Vruchtbaarheid en overbevolking »Handelsbeurs
26 oktober 2011
7 Billion People …and Beyond
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Billions
World Population Growth: 1950 - 2050
Least developed countries
Other developing countries
Developed countriesSource: « State of the World Population 2011 », UNFPA
7 Billion People …and Beyond• Global:
– + 80 million people/year– 43% is <25 years old– 2050: 2.5 billion people will be >60 years old
• Asia: – 60% of world population
• Africa: – population will triple by 2100
7 Billion People …and Beyond
Source: Presentation Ivan Hermans 3-3-2012, UNFPA
7 Billion People …and Beyond
• Paradoxes:
– Fewer children <-> population is rising
– High fertility rates in poor countries <-> low fertility in industrialized countries
“The evidence is overwhelming, the MDGs are difficult or impossible to achieve with the current levels of population growth in the least developed countries and regions”
- All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health, March 2011-
Fertility Rates
Source: “World Population Prospects The 2008 Revision”, UN Population Division,
Fertility Rates
Source: « State of the World Population 2011 », UNFPA
Fertility Rates
• Fertility decline & grow of number of women in reproductive age
• Progress in reproductive health but 215 million women in unmet need for family planning:= women who want to space or limite number
of children but are using unreliable contraceptive methods or nothing
Unmet Need for Family Planning
Source: Sedgh G. et al., New York: Guttmacher Institute 2007
• Actual number: highest in Asia
• Proportion: largest in Sub Sahara Africa
Unmet Need for Family Planning
GLOBAL:
•Richest quintile: 15% in unmet need
• Poorest quintile:33% in unmet need
Source: USAID. BRIDGE. Population Reference Bureau (PRB). Family Planning Worldwide, 2008 Data Sheet.
• The gap on contraceptive use between rich and poor starts to close only when contraceptives become more accessible & affordable.
• Highest among jongest and oldest age groups
• Particularly at risk: sexually active unmarried women
Unmet Need for Family Planning
DIRECTLY:
• 590,000 newborn deaths could be averted annually• Infant and under five mortality rates would drop by
24% and 35%, respectively• Infants born to teen mothers have twice the risk of
dying in their first year than infants born to women in their 20s and 30s
• Lowering of maternal mortality due to unsafe abortions
• Maternal mortality could drop by 25-35%• …
Contributions of Fulfilling Unmet Need for FP
INDIRECTLY:
• More equality between men and women and raise women’s status in society
• Lower fertility accounts for 25-40% of economic growth in developing countries
• Positive impact on individual household economies• Women and girls spend more time in education, training,
employment• Enables women to be more active in economic, and political life• Provide cost savings in the health care sector • ...
Contributions of Fulfilling Unmet Need for FP
• Cost fulfilling unmet need: annual average 1.2 USD/women.
• Total costs of services: increase of 3.6 billion USD. • Savings in newborn and maternal health: 5.1 billion USD.
For every dollar spend on FP, 4 USD can be SAVED!
FP as a Cost Effective Investment
“For each additional 10 million dollars received for family planning, we can avert 114,000 unintended pregnancies, 50,000 unplanned births, 48,000 abortions, 15,000 miscarriages and more than 3,000 infant deaths"
-Thoraya Obaid (ex-Executive Director UNFPA)-
FP as an Ecological Investment
Source: Malcolm Potts, Bixbey Center for Population, Health and Sustainability, University of California, Berkley
• Increase access to contraceptive supplies and services by assuring:
– Choice– Quality– Availability– Afordability
• Avoid stock outs
• Add to National Essentional Medicines List
• Sufficient budgets
Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need
Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need (Global)
Source: UNFPA & “Resource Flows for Population Activities”
Includes all donor institutions (including developed country governments), foundations/NGOS and development banks
Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need (Belgium)
Source: « Een kritische analyse van de federale ontwikkelingshulp voor sekusele en reproductieve gezondheid », Sensoa, september 2011.
• Increase political commitment
• Realise FP policies
• Empowerment of women
• Realise equality between men and women
• Block cultural/traditional barriers
• Call for the ‘exceptionalism of FP’ based on lessons learned from the HIV/AIDS approach
Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need