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2017
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Proa
ctiv
e Sc
enar
io P
lann
ing:
M
odel
ing
Fina
ncia
l Im
plica
tions
Jona
than
Cha
pman
Dire
ctor
CHC
Adv
isory
Ser
vice
s, Ca
pita
l Lin
k
Web
inar
Oct
ober
10
, 201
7
2017
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ital L
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Your
Wor
ld…
alm
ost e
very
day
2017
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Do W
e M
anag
e St
rate
gica
lly?
How
Do
We
Stra
tegi
cally
Man
age?
2017
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Risk
on
the
Edge
…
2017
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ink
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Scen
ario
Pla
nnin
g
2017
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Why
Sce
nario
s?
2017
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Don’
t wor
ry a
bout
how
man
y w
e in
vite
.W
e’ve
go
t pl
enty
of
room
for
ever
yon
e.
2017
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Adva
ntag
es to
Sce
nario
Pla
nnin
g
Prov
ides
Pro
duct
ive
Actio
n St
eps i
n Ti
mes
of U
ncer
tain
ty
Com
plex
ity (o
r Lac
k Th
ereo
f)
Cons
erve
Res
ourc
es
Hint
s at C
onse
quen
ces
Enha
nces
Our
Tho
ught
/Dec
ision
Pro
cess
Redu
ces R
eact
iona
ry R
espo
nses
Does
Not
Have
to b
e Pr
ecise
to b
e Ri
ght
2017
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Amat
eurs
stud
y th
e pl
an;
Prof
essio
nals
stud
y th
e as
sum
ptio
ns.
2017
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ital L
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Sele
cted
Asp
ects
of S
cena
rio P
lann
ing
Assu
mpt
ions
abo
ut A
ssum
ptio
nsLim
ited
Varia
bles
Prov
ides
Leve
lof C
onfid
ence
Esta
blish
es R
ange
s to
Test
Thr
esho
lds
Does
not
For
etel
l the
Fut
ure
Typi
cally
Get
s Us t
o Ye
s, No
, May
be;
but N
ot D
efin
itive
2017
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Exam
ples
of S
cena
rio P
lann
ing
Disa
ster
Res
pons
e‘B
ack
of th
e En
velo
pe’
Fina
ncia
l For
ecas
ts/M
odel
ing
Arch
itect
ural
Blue
prin
tsPr
edict
ive
Anal
ytics
All o
f You
r HRS
A Gr
ant A
pplic
atio
ns
2017
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Exam
ples
of S
cena
rio P
lann
ing
2017
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Exam
ples
of S
cena
rio P
lann
ing
2017
Cap
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Exam
ples
of S
cena
rio P
lann
ing
2017
Cap
ital L
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A go
od p
lan
toda
y is
bette
r
than
a p
erfe
ct p
lan
tom
orro
w.
2017
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ital L
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Dr. J
ohn
Snow
…in
185
4
2017
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Exam
ples
of S
cena
rio P
lann
ing
2017
Cap
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Valu
e an
d Im
pact
of H
ealth
Cen
ters
2017
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UDSM
APPE
R –
Anal
ysis
Resu
lts
2017
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NACH
C’s F
undi
ng C
liff E
stim
ator
Perc
ent o
f Pat
ient
s Los
ing
Acce
ss to
Car
eDu
e to
a 7
0% F
eder
al G
rant
Red
uctio
n
http
s://
d3n8
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o7vh
mx.
cloud
front
.net
/nac
hc/p
ages
/297
/att
achm
ents
/orig
ina
l/148
6144
245/
2017
_Fun
ding
_Clif
f_Im
pact
_Est
imat
or.x
lsx?1
4861
4424
5
2017
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NACH
C’s F
undi
ng C
liff E
stim
ator
2017
Cap
ital L
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ww.
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ink.
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NACH
C’s M
edica
id Im
pact
Sta
tem
ent
Prov
idin
g Su
mm
ary
of M
edica
id's
Sign
ifica
nce
To
Hea
lth C
ente
rs a
nd T
heir
Patie
nts
http
s://
d3n8
a8pr
o7vh
mx.
cloud
front
.net
/nac
hc/p
ages
/297
/att
achm
ents
/orig
ina
l/148
6144
991/
2017
_Med
icaid
_Im
pact
_Sta
tem
ent_
(1).x
lsx?1
4861
4499
1
2017
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NACH
C’s M
edica
id Im
pact
Sta
tem
ent
2017
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Back
of t
he E
nvel
ope
2017
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ink
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Thin
king
of E
xpan
ding
?
An o
rgan
izatio
n w
ants
to co
nsid
er
incr
easin
g its
low
inco
me
popu
latio
n m
arke
t sha
re b
y 5%
.
How
man
y m
ore
patie
nts,
visit
s, an
d pr
ovid
ers
wou
ld th
at m
ean?
2017
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ital L
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Expa
nsio
n Co
nsid
erat
ions
Mar
ket S
hare
–Cu
rren
t and
Pro
ject
edNu
mbe
r of P
atie
nts f
rom
spec
ific p
opul
atio
n di
vide
d by
that
tota
l pop
ulat
ion
Serv
ice A
rea
FQHC
Pat
ient
s = 1
33,3
90Se
rvice
Are
a Ge
nera
l Pop
ulat
ion
= 71
4,57
5; Lo
w In
com
e Po
pula
tion
= 42
5,42
619
% m
arke
t sha
re G
ener
al P
opul
atio
n; 3
1% m
arke
t sha
re Lo
w In
com
e Po
pula
tion
Estim
atin
g En
coun
ters
/Visi
tsHi
stor
ic/Re
alist
ic vi
sits p
er p
atie
nt ti
mes
exp
ecte
d pa
tient
sFQ
HC V
isits
= 5
86,9
1658
6,91
6 / 1
33,3
90 =
4.4
visi
ts p
er p
atie
nt
Proj
ectin
g W
orkf
orce
Nee
dsHi
stor
ic/Re
alist
ic Pr
ovid
er P
rodu
ctiv
ity d
ivid
ed b
y ex
pect
ed v
isits
/pat
ient
sFQ
HC P
rovi
der F
TE =
628
FQ
HC V
isits
= 5
86,9
1658
6,91
6 / 6
28 =
934
visi
ts p
er F
TE
2017
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Expa
nsio
n Co
nsid
erat
ions
An o
rgan
izatio
n w
ants
to in
crea
se it
s low
inco
me
popu
latio
n m
arke
t sha
re b
y 5%
; how
man
y m
ore
patie
nts,
visit
s, pr
ovid
ers?
31%
x 1.
05 =
32.
55 =
33%
33%
x 42
5,42
6 =
140,
391
patie
nts
(in
crea
se o
f 7,0
00 lo
w in
com
e pa
tient
s)
7,00
0 *
4.4
visit
s per
pat
ient
= 3
0,80
0 ad
ditio
nal v
isits
30,8
00 /
934
visit
s per
Pro
vide
r FTE
= 3
3 ad
ditio
nal P
rovi
der
FTEs
2017
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Expa
nsio
n Co
nsid
erat
ions
Estim
ated
Squ
are
Foot
age/
Fund
ing
Need
ed to
Trea
t New
Pa
tient
s –HY
POTH
ETICAL
Usin
g es
timat
ed sq
uare
feet
per
pro
vide
r as b
asis…
1,10
0
33 F
TE x
1,10
0 sq
ft p
er =
36,
300
tota
l sq
ft
Usin
g es
timat
ed co
st p
er sq
uare
foot
as b
asis…
$480
36,3
00 sq
ft *
$48
0/sq
ft =
$17.
4M e
stim
ated
cost
2017
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Expa
nsio
n Co
nsid
erat
ions
Hard
Cos
ts:
70%
Equi
pmen
t: 15
%So
ft C
osts
:15
%
Tota
l Pro
ject
Cos
t 10
0%
+ La
nd/B
uild
ing
Acqu
isitio
n
Typi
cal B
reak
dow
n of
Pro
ject
Cos
ts fo
r Hea
lth C
ente
rs:
2017
Cap
ital L
ink
30w
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Serv
ice E
xpan
sion
-Im
mun
izatio
n Ra
tes a
nd C
osts
Teta
nus,
Diph
ther
ia, a
nd P
ertu
ssis
Not b
eing
vacc
inat
ed re
sults
in a
ppro
xim
atel
y 5,
320
case
s per
100
,000
ch
ildre
n
$17,
000
in h
ospi
taliz
atio
n co
sts p
er ca
se
Dtap
Vacc
ine
= $8
0/ch
ild
74,0
00 ch
ildre
n un
der 5
yea
rs o
f age
in se
rvice
are
a
Curr
ent I
mm
uniza
tion
Rate
= 7
0%30
% =
$20
mill
ion
in co
sts
Spen
d $1
.6 m
illio
n to
incr
ease
the
Imm
uniza
tion
Rate
to 8
0%
New
Imm
uniza
tion
Rate
= 7
7%23
% =
$15
mill
ion
in co
sts
Redu
ctio
n of
Hos
pita
lizat
ion
Cost
s of $
5 M
illio
n
2017
Cap
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Iden
tifyi
ng P
riorit
ies
Low Income Population
HPSA
Sco
reLO
W
HIGH
2017
Cap
ital L
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32w
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Capi
tal L
ink’s
Rev
enue
Mod
elin
g To
ol
Impa
ct o
f Med
icaid
Elig
ibili
tyGr
ant F
undi
ng fo
r Uni
nsur
edBa
sic A
ssum
ptio
ns:
PPS,
Pa
yorM
ix,
Reim
burs
emen
t, Ex
pens
es
2017
Cap
ital L
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Fina
ncia
l Sen
sitiv
ity
2017
Cap
ital L
ink
34w
ww.
capl
ink.
org
Fina
ncia
l Sen
sitiv
ity
2017
Cap
ital L
ink
35w
ww.
capl
ink.
org
Fina
ncia
l Sen
sitiv
ity
2017
Cap
ital L
ink
36w
ww.
capl
ink.
org
Fina
ncia
l Sen
sitiv
ity
2017
Cap
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ink
37w
ww.
capl
ink.
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Fina
ncia
l Sen
sitiv
ity
2017
Cap
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Fina
ncia
l Sen
sitiv
ity
2017
Cap
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ink
39w
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ink.
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Impl
emen
tatio
n
Wha
t pot
entia
l cha
nge
‘wak
es y
ou u
p at
nig
ht’?
Why
?
Wha
t ope
ratio
nal g
oal(s
) will
not
hap
pen
with
out p
lann
ing?
Why
?
Wha
t pla
nnin
g re
sour
ce(s
) is m
ost s
carc
e? H
ow to
com
pens
ate?
Mos
t pre
ssin
g iss
ue(s
) fac
ing
your
org
aniza
tion?
Con
sequ
ence
s?
Cond
uct o
ne “b
ack
of th
e en
velo
pe” s
cena
rio.
Assu
mpt
ions
?
“Str
ateg
ic Pl
anni
ng is
PRA
CTIC
E.St
rate
gic M
anag
emen
t is t
he G
AME.
”
2017
Cap
ital L
ink
40w
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ink.
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Inno
vatio
n is
driv
en b
y th
e ab
ility
to
Fail
quick
ly,
Lear
n, a
nd
Evol
ve.
2017
Cap
ital L
ink
41w
ww.
capl
ink.
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Jona
than
Cha
pman
Colo
rado
jcha
pman
@ca
plin
k.or
g
970.
833.
8513