prima prototypical policy impacts on multifunctional activities in rural municipalities
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PRIMA Prototypical Policy Impacts on Multifunctional Activities in Rural Municipalities. 1/11/2008 – 31/10/2011 (36 months) 7 th PCRD, Environnement. Aim of the project. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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PRIMAPrototypical Policy Impacts on
Multifunctional Activitiesin Rural Municipalities
1/11/2008 – 31/10/2011 (36 months)
7th PCRD, Environnement
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°2
Aim of the project
I compute my next state
I compute my next state
To develop downscaling and upscaling methods of policy impacts on multifunctionality based on microsimulation and agent based models
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°3
Prima modelling approaches
Micro-simulation Simple agents, with rules of evolutions based on
probabilities of events, or simple decision rules (no complex interactions between agents)
Common approach to couple demography with other types of dynamics
Agent-based models More complex decision rules, taking into account the
interactions between agents Heterogeneity of decision rules between agents
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°4
Aim of the project
The models have to deal with the structural evolution of the populations (appearance, disappearance and change of agents) regarding local conditions and policies.
European measures to take into account are build from: Structural Funds (SFs), Cohesion Fund (CF), Preaccession funds (PAFs)
Cohesion funds sensu lato(ERDF, ESF, Cohesion)
Pre-accession Funds(ISPA)(EAFRD)
Axis 1: Competitiveness
Axis 2: Environment & Land management
Axis 3: Economic diversification& Quality of life
Objectives dealing withCompetitiveness…
Rural Development Funds
Axis
LE
ADE
R
…Environment &Land management…
…Economic diversification& Quality of life
Environment
Transport
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°5
11 members from 8 countries
1. Cemagref, France, coordinator
2. University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning , Germany
3. University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgary
4. Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept. of Economics and Resources Management, Norway
5. Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands
6. Newcastle University, Centre for Rural Economy, Royaume-Uni
7. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe, Halle/Saale, Germany
8. University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, The Netherlands
9. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands10. Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Czech Republic
11. University of Zagreb, Faculty of Agriculture, Croatia
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°6
Budget
Global budget: 2 603 430 Euros- RTD 2 416 376 Euros- management 187 054 Euros
EU contribution 1 999 335 Euros
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°7
6 case study regions
500km
Derbyshire &Nottinghamshire
UK
FR
DECZ
HR
BG
Auvergne
Istrian region
South Moravia
Altmark
North CentralPlanning Region
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°8
1. Scenario design
2. S
take
hold
ers
pers
pect
ives
and
pa
rtici
pato
ry a
ppro
ache
s3. Micro models of municipalities
4. Generalisation at the regional
level
5. Aggregated models:
downscaling at the regional level
6. Impact assessment: improvment
Workpackages and main tasks
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°9
LISC agenda
1. Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality2. Test and adapt it to the case study regions3. Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based
on the one of municipality4. Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent
level for a given process5. Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures
given by the model
Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°10
A conceptual model
The modelling work required clear objectives for the model. These objectives are defined by the scientific questions addressed by the model: What are the main tendencies at municipality level in
terms of: structure of the population structure of activities (especially their diversity) structure of land use
From a practical point of view, the interpretation of the model results has to allow to answer to:
How these tendencies induced a particular level and form of multifunctionality assessed at the municipality level ?
What is the likely impact on these tendencies of different European policies ?
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°11
Objective of micro-simulation model
model the evolution of: population (size, distribution of age), distribution of activities and housing land use distribution (main categories), offer of main services,
in one municipality (or a small set of municipalities) on a first stage
in all rural municipalities of a region for WP4 on the second stage
under scenario on: municipality policy (in particular the use of structural
funds) external context evolution
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°12
Discovering the conceptual model
Viewed by an individual
Viewed at the village level
Viewed at the regional level
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°13
LIVE
SITUATEDMEMBER
HAS AN ACTIVITY PATTERN
0
1
0
0
0
0
0CONSUMES SERVICES
The individual ages in a situated household
INSIDEMUNICIPALITY
SITUATED
OR
OUTSIDE
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°14
Conceptual model: the village, state variables
Households
Lodging L1 L2 L3 L4
Land use U1 U2U2 U4
Municipality
Other Industries
J2J1 J3
Services
S1 S2J4
Reachable outside
J6J5
Other industries Services
S3 S4J5
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°15
The municipality model
Municipality Reachable outsideaccess to jobs and services
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°16
The region model
M1
M3
M2
M4
M6 M7
M5
M8
M9
RO1RO2
RO5
RO8
RO7
RO9
RO6
RO3
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°17
The dynamics
Individual and household: mainly endogeneous
Village as a “policy” maker: partly endogeneous and exogeneous
Region: that is the outside -> exogeneous
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°18
The model dynamics: main loop
At each time step: For all municipalities and reachable outside:
• apply scenario: update jobs, services, land use, generate potential migrants
For all households (including migrants):• update household (age of individuals, location, house
and activity, household structure) For all municipalities:
• update land use, houses, jobs and services (according to internal dynamics)
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°19
State variablesState variables Examples
Individuals
…ac2ac1activit
…p2p1profile
…a2a1age
…i2i1index profile = « catégorie socio-professionnelle »activity = [status, activity nature, activity place], status: categories from labour survey including inactive, unemployed, student, retired…
Households
…R2R1house
…L2L1ind lst
…t2t1type
…h2h1indextype = single, couple, single parent, otherhouse = type of house
Land use…CLu2CLu1constr.
…SLu2SLu1surfac.
…Lu2Lu1typetype = residential, industry, agriculture, forest, infrastructure (from CORINE)constraints = limit surfaces
…nR2nR1nb
…R2R1typeHousing type = flat or house, nb of rooms.
Services…nXS2nXS1nb ro
…nS2nS1nb in
…S2S1type type = broad categories from surveysreachable outside = outside model municipalitiesaccessible services.
Jobs
…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro
…nJ2nJ1nb in
…J2J1type type = matching activitiesreachable outside = idem.
NeighbourMunicipalities ListNeighbourMunic Based on distance between municipalities
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°20
State variables and scenarios
Individuals
…ac2ac1activit
…p2p1profile
…a2a1age
…i2i1index
Households
Land use
…nR2nR1nb
…R2R1typeHouses
Services
Jobs
…CLu2CLu1constr.
…SLu2SLu1surfac.
…Lu2Lu1type
…nXS2nXS1nb ro
…nS2nS1nb in
…S2S1type
…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro
…nJ2nJ1nb in
…J2J1type
NeighbourMunicipalities ListNeighbourMunic
…Lx2Lx1ind lst
…tx2tx1type
…hx2hx1index
…acx2acx1activit
…px2px1profile
…ax2ax1age
…ix2ix1indexMigrations from outsideonly
Migrations from outside only
…CLu2CLu1C
…SLu2SLu1S
…Lu2Lu1type
…nR2nR1nb
…R2R1type
…nXS2nXS1nb ro
…nS2nS1nb in
…S2S1type
…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro
…nJ2nJ1nb in
…J2J1type
ListNeighbourMunic
State variables Scenario
…R2R1house
…L2L1ind lst
…t2t1type
…h2h1index
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°21
Regional scenario
Municipality set scenario
Applies to a set of municipalities.
Applies to all municipalities of the region
Municipality scenario
Applies to only one municipality.
Multi-level scenarios
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°22
Internal dynamics
Individuals
…ac2ac1activit
…p2p1profile
…a2a1age
…i2i1index
Households
Land use
…nR2nR1nb
…R2R1typeHouses
Services
Jobs
…CLu2CLu1constr.
…SLu2SLu1surfac.
…Lu2Lu1type
…nXS2nXS1nb ro
…nS2nS1nb in
…S2S1type
…nXJ2nXJ1nb ro
…nJ2nJ1nb in
…J2J1type
NeighbourMunicipalities ListNeighbourMunic
State variables Dynamics
…R2R1house
…L2L1ind lst
…t2t1type
…h2h1index
all events – see details after
split, merge, collapse, birth, move
Building of new houses by households
Creation – destruction of services connectedwith population density and distribution
Creation – destruction of service jobs
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°23
Rural individual endogeneous dynamics
An individual ages. During its life, it:
N°23
quits the parental household joins a partner quits a partner stops the study to enter on the
labour market has a child intentionally remains without
working looks for a job looks for a residence loses a job gets a job changes of job without
changing village changes of job place
moves for changing of residence in the same village
moves for changing of village but remains close
moves outside asks for services stops using services dies
quit the parental
householdgets a job join a
partnerstop the study to enter on the labour market
quit the parental
household
join a partner
stop the study to enter on the labour market gets a job
quit the partner
have a child
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°24
Individual dynamics: Deciding looking for a job
UNEMPLOYED
WORKER INACTIVE
Punemp→inact
Pwork→inact
1-Pinact→inactalso become Unemployed
Pinact→inactPactpat
i→actpat i
fired by municipality
Look for a job
Pactpat i→actpat j with j ≠ 0
1 -Punemp→inact
Labour survey
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°25
Household dynamics: moving and working
all members satisfied?
No
need a residence?Yes
Find a residence close to the
intersection of the job locations of the
parents
2 parents have a new work? Yes Yes
Find a residence close to the current
living place
No
Move outside the region
Selection of one of the working
parents to be the leader to follow
Leader find a job in the region?
The household does not move and
nobody changes work
No
Leader looks for a job? Yes
No
All other looking for a job members has
found a job close to the leader’s job?
Yes
No
Yes
The household member tries to
satisfy their job need locally
At least, one member looks for a job?
Household needs a residence?
Yes
No Yes
No
Nothing happens
YesLeader is alone as a worker
No
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IRES 19.04.2010 N°26
LISC agenda
1. Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality2. Test and adapt it to the case study regions3. Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based
on the one of municipality4. Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent
level for a given process5. Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures
given by the model
Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.