present status of software for site specific fertilizer recommendations and future outlook for...
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Present Status of Software for Site Specific Fertilizer Recommendations
and Future Outlook for improving its Scope and Precision
Crop Production Regions in Punjab
CPR-1(Cotton-Wheat)
Multan, Lodhran, Khanewal, Vehari, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, D.G.Khan
CPR-2(Rice-Wheat)
Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujrat, Mandi Baha-ud-Din
CPR-3(Mixed Crops)
Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Okara, Kasur, Lahore, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Jhang, Chiniot, Sargodha
CPR-4 ( Thal)(Pulses-Wheat)
Layyah, Bhakkar, Khushab, Mianwali
CPR-5 (Rainfed)(Maize-Wheat/Oilseeds)
Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Rawalpindi, Islamabad
Soil Fertility status of Punjab soils
Organic Matter (%)
Available Phosphorus(%)
Available Potassium(%)
Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High
CPR-I 86 13 1 74 23 3 11 29 60
CPR-II 77 19 4 78 20 2 28 48 24
CPR-III 81 16 3 65 30 5 8 46 46
CPR-IV 91 8 1 85 13 2 65 32 3
CPR-V 85 13 2 86 12 2 19 66 15
ZONE Zn B Fe Cu COTTON 37 50 localized 5
RICE 81 31 localized localized
CENTRAL 49 Localized Localized Localized
RAINFED 66 55 15 4
CITRUS 82 Localized 71 18
MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY (%)
Summarized N balance Sheet
Nitrogen (Kg/ha)Year
85-86 95-96 00-01 05-06 08-09CPR-I
-14.8 8.6 -7.2 3.6 2.9CPR-II
-12.3 -2.0 -19.7 0.2 5.7CPR-III
-10.2 7.6 -9.6 -9.6 -19.7CPR-IV
-7.4 -8.2 -13.1 -16.2 -11.6CPR-V
-18.3 -18.9 -14.6 -25.4 -25.4Punjab
-12.4 2.4 -6.6 -3.8 -9.1
Summarized P balance Sheet
Phosphorus (Kg/ha)Year
85-86 95-96 00-01 05-06 08-09CPR-I
-12.7 -12.8 -24.9 -25.1 -26.5CPR-II
-12.1 -13.1 -23.2 -21.2 -25.1CPR-III
-12.2 -12.0 -23.3 -28.7 -33.0CPR-IV
-7.1 -8.6 -14.2 -17.2 -15.9CPR-V
-8.3 -9.3 -10.8 -17.3 -19.9Punjab
-11.4 -11.8 -19.8 -22.5 -27.0
Summarized K balance Sheet
Potassium (Kg/ha)Year
85-86 95-96 00-01 05-06 08-09CPR-I
-28.8 -35.0 -50.1 -56.4 -62.6CPR-II
-7.0 -4.0 -38.5 -41.1 -50.7CPR-III
-26.5 -30.5 -51.1 -71.3 -82.7CPR-IV
-22.7 -28.0 -32.8 -44.6 -32.4CPR-V
-35.1 -37.9 -32.8 -50.3 -55.6Punjab
-24.2 -27.9 -45.6 -56.5 -63.5
Use of N, P & K (Kg/ ha) in Punjab
Year Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium
71-72 20.1 2.2 -
79-80 43.0 12.4 0.4
89-90 70.3 19.2 2.0
99-00 93.7 26.0 0.7
04-05 116.5 38.8 1.4
05-06 124.8 36.8 1.2
06-07 107.0 41.0 1.9
07-08 120.8 26.0 1.2
08-09 124.4 27.2 1.1
09-10 148.3 36.2 1.0
10-11 132.0 32.5 1.4
CPR Wise Use of N, P & K (kg/ha) during 2010-11
CPR N P K
CPR-1 161.5 38.6 0.93
CPR-2 133.3 23.7 0.70
CPR-3 148.0 27.1 1.28
CPR-4 42.2 10.1 0.19
CPR-5 52.3 6.2 0.01
Punjab 132.0 32.5 1.42
District Wise Use of N, P & K (kg/ha) during 2010-11
District N P KMultan 280.4 65.7 1.4
M. Garh 98.7 19.9 0.8
Gujranwala 176.0 30.5 0.9
M. B. Din 128.4 24.2 1.4
Okara 195.9 30.0 2.2
Sargodha 92.4 20.1 0.8
Layyah 99.8 28.8 0.6
Bhakkar 28.6 6.1 0.1
Jhelum 91.8 18.3 0.03
Chakwal 10.6 1.7 -
Fertilizer Recommendations for Wheat over the Years
Irrigated
Rain-fed
Soil Type poor Medium FertileProgressive
Farmers <350 mm 350-500 mm >500 mm
Year N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K
1973 114: 85: 0
1985-86 136: 111: 57 114: 67: 57 84: 57: 57 57 :57:
57 84: 57: 57 114: 57: 57
1993-94 136: 114: 62 114: 84: 62 84: 57: 62 158: 114: 6257: 57:
62 84: 57: 64 114: 84: 62
2004 130: 114: 62104: 84:
62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62
2006-07 130: 114: 62104: 84:
62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 6257: 57:
62 84: 57: 62 114: 57: 62
2007-08 130: 114: 62104: 84:
62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62
2008-09 130: 114: 62104: 84:
62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62
2009-10 130: 114: 62104: 84:
62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62
2010-11 130: 114: 62104: 84:
62 79: 57: 62 57: 57:
30 114: 114: 30 114: 114: 30
2011-12 130: 114: 62104: 84:
62 79: 57: 62
References: Agriculture department, Govt. of Punjab; Agricultural Research Council
Nutrient off take vs. yield of major crops in Punjab
Wheat Maize Cotton Rice S.Cane0
10
20
30
40
50
Pe
rce
nt
in
cre
as
e
Percent increase in Yield by Balanced Fertilizer
Projected Impact of Balanced Fertilization in Punjab, on 50 % area, 2009-10
Impact Wheat Rice sugarcane Maize Cotton Total
Area (000 ha) 6914.7 1634.6 574.0 366.3 1975.00 11464.6
% of cultivated area of Punjab 41.56 9.82 3.45 2.20 11.87 68.90
Additional Yield (000 tons) 5342.2 2615.5 11290.4 626.6 1659.00
Financial Gain (Rs 000 million) 126.88 69.99 28.23 10.65 42.51 278.26
Variation in Fert. Consumption (000 tons) :N 20.33 -16.55 23.40 24.91 68.65 120.74
:P 268.86 51.20 25.97 26.33 57.02 429.38
:K 109.84 43.81 35.52 22.67 97.26 309.11
Additional Fertilizer cost (Rs 000 million) 33.93 8.54 6.39 5.26 16.46 70.59
Net Gain (Rs 000 million) 92.94 61.45 21.83 5.39 26.38 208.00
Note: Calculation covered 100% wheat area; 84% rice area; 95.5% sugarcane area; 68.5% maize and 81.1% cotton area of Punjab
Soil Test Based Fertilizer Recommendations:
To improve the yield at the same level of inputs
OR To decrease the amount of inputs at the same
level of yield
WE MUST MOVE TO:
OBJECTIVES OF PROJECTOBJECTIVES OF PROJECT
Collection and synthesis of available fertilizer trials data.
Software development for site-specific recommendations and dissemination through CDs and access to web.
Diagnostic survey for low adoption of fertilizer use technology and imbalance use of nitrogen and phosphorus.
COLLECTION AND PROCESSING OF DATA
• Collection of relevant reports, research papers, hand outs and personal communication for last 10 years.
• Extraction of fertilizer trials data (yield with soil analysis) separately for each district.
• Selection of treatments with balanced NP graded doses
• Processing of data for modeling and development of software
• Verification of predictions with original treatments• Uploading of soft ware on the web.
Prediction Models on the WebPrediction Models on the Web
Prediction models for soil analysis based fertilizer
recommendations(N&P) have been completed for all the
districts of Punjab for wheat crop and relevant districts
for rice(12 districts) and maize(7 districts) crops which
are available on Web:
http://www.fertilizeruaf.pk
Similar models for Sugarcane crop will be on the web up
to mid September.
Models for cotton crop will be completed before the end
of this year.
Involvement of stakeholdersInvolvement of stakeholders
August 2011: Internal review by Vice Chancellor and his team
September 2011: Meeting of stakeholders i.e. Agri. Research, Agri. Extension,
Fertilizer Companies, UAF experts October 2011: Review by Secretary Agriculture and
his team November 2011: Stakeholders workshop – Attended by
Field staff of Agri. Extension, Research and Fertilizer companies working in Multan and their heads, Farmers from Multan, UAF experts.
Training of Field officersTraining of Field officers
Training of nominees of DOs Agri. Extension for use of Fertilizer Prediction models for imparting awareness to the farming community of their district.
Training of nominees of Soil Fertility Laboratories in Punjab for using the Fertilizer Prediction Models for giving recommendations on the basis of Soil analysis.
Validation Fertilizer Trials, MultanValidation Fertilizer Trials, Multan
Stakeholders Conference in Nov, 2011
Dr. Shahid Mahmood Dir. Soil Fertility- Focal Person
Plan of trials: 0-0, 50-25, 75-40, 100-50, 125-65, 150-75, 175-85, 200-100
Allocation of trials: Soil Fertility-8, Agri. Extension-9, Engro Fertilizer-3, FFC-2, Jaffer Brother-3, Fatima Fertilizer-6
Results of some trials discussed:
Munawwar Hussain, Moza Mansoor Pur, Jalalpur Pirwala
Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)
Applied N(Kg/ha)
Applied P(Kg/ha)
Predicted N(Kg/ha)
Predicted P(Kg/ha)
17050 0
0 0
289450 25
52 27
346875 40
82 42
3939100 50
96 47
4255125 65
102 50
4552150 75
109 54
4774175 85
116 59
4674200 100
114 54
Lal Muhammad, Haveli Lang, Moza Thelan, Jalalpur Pirwala
Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)
Applied N(Kg/ha)
Applied P(Kg/ha)
Predicted N(Kg/ha)
Predicted P(Kg/ha)
16080 0
0 0
263250 25
37 17
312675 40
67 35
3458100 50
84 35
3781125 65
101 49
3929150 75
106 54
4006175 85
109 54
4046200 100
109 54
Umar Farooq Chattha, Moza Baghdar Wala, Makhdoom Rasheed
Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)
Applied N(Kg/ha)
Applied P(Kg/ha)
Predicted N(Kg/ha)
Predicted P(Kg/ha)
18710 0
0 0
294350 25
47 25
348075 40
77 40
3907100 50
91 45
4257125 65
97 49
4517150 75
103 52
4761175 85
111 57
4881200 100
116 57
Muhammad Aleem, Shah Pur Ubha, Shujabad
Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)
Applied N(Kg/ha)
Applied P(Kg/ha)
Predicted N(Kg/ha)
Predicted P(Kg/ha)
19320 0
0 0
284150 25
49 25
328575 40
77 37
3677100 50
96 47
4063125 65
102 51
4386150 75
108 54
4689175 85
116 57
4909200 100
128 64
Muhammad Ishaque, Chak 86-M, Jalalpur Pirwala
Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)
Applied N(Kg/ha)
Applied P(Kg/ha)
Predicted N(Kg/ha)
Predicted P(Kg/ha)
29560 0
49 27
312950 25
57 30
382275 40
91 44
3953100 50
101 52
3410125 65
69 37
3446150 75
69 37
3045175 85
49 27
3650200 100
79 40
Mohammad Nasir, Moza Jalalabad, Makhdoom Rasheed
Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)
Applied N(Kg/ha)
Applied P(Kg/ha)
Predicted N(Kg/ha)
Predicted P(Kg/ha)
18820 0
0 0
287550 25
52 30
314675 40
69 35
3461100 50
84 42
3825125 65
101 49
4167150 75
121 62
4479175 85
134 67
4893200 100
141 71
DEFICIENCIES IN THE DATA
1. Uneven distribution of trials leading to less no of observations in certain districts:
i. Wheat:
ii. Rice
iii. Maize
iv. Sugarcane
Number of trials for wheat
District No of trials
Districts No of Trials
Districts No of Trials
Faisalabad 171 Muzaffargarh 44 Layyah 23
Bahawalnagar 143 Narowal 42 D.G.Khan 23
Multan 132 T.T.Singh 39 kasur 20
Bahawalpur 117 Hafizabad 34 Okara 19
Sheikhupura 115 Khanewal 32 Lahore 16
Rawalpindi 94 Chakwal 26 Pakpattan 9
Gujrat 90 Jhelum 25 Rajanpur 7
Number of trials for Rice
District No of Trials District No of Trials
Sheikhupura 95 Sialkot 33
Faisalabad 91 Sargodha 28
Gujranwala 64 Hafizabad 27
Kasur 49 Jhang 26
Narowal 47 Lahore 20
Gujrat 45 M.B.din 10
Number of Trials for MaizeDistrict No of Trials District No of Trials
Faisalabad 71 Okara 26
T.T.Singh 63 Pak Pattan 8
Rawalpindi 51 Sargodha 9
Sahiwal 45 Kasur 6
Attock 36 Jhang 2
Number of Trials for Sugarcane
District No of Trials District No of Trials
Faisalabad 23 M.B.Din 4
Sheikhupura 12 Jhang 2
Sargodha 11 Pak Pattan 2
T.T.Singh 6 R.Y.Khan 2
Sahiwal 4 Kasur 1
2. Few points for the Prediction curve:Wheat Rice
Basmati CoarseMaize
Hybrid Non HybridSugarcane Cotton
Non-BT BT
0: 0: 0150: 120: 90160: 57: 62160: 114: 90225: 120:60240: 114:60
Arid Region
60: 40: 24100: 0 : 60100: 50: 60100:100: 60150:100: 60
0: 0: 090: 90: 60
120: 90: 80135: 90: 60160: 114: 90180: 90: 60
0: 0: 0150: 0: 75150: 50: 75150: 100: 0150: 100: 75150: 150: 75225: 100: 75
0: 0: 0120: 90: 62150: 0: 75150: 75: 75150: 150: 75
175: 150: 100180: 150: 120270: 150: 120
0: 0: 0150: 0: 75150: 75: 75150: 150: 75175: 150:100225: 150: 75
0: 0: 0125: 125: 125250: 0: 125250: 125: 125250: 150: 125250: 250: 125375: 125: 125
0: 0: 0120: 0: 60 120: 40: 60 120: 80: 60120:120:60160: 40: 62160: 80: 60 180: 80: 60240: 80: 60
0: 0: 0125:100:100250: 0: 0250: 50:100
250:100:100 250:150:100375:100:100400:100:125
What we have What we need ( Few points for Yield vs N/P) ( More points for Yield vs N/P)
3. Fertilizer trials- Yield but no soil analysis
4. Salt affected soils- Area affected 2.68 mha in Punjab and within irrigated areas, the figure is 1.7 mha but no data available regarding salinity effect on fertilizer use efficiency
5. Rainfed Agriculture- 2.9 mha but no data available for quantifying the relation of moisture content in the soil with fertilizer use efficiency
These Deficiencies lead to:
Low precision of prediction models(Around 80%)
Low reliability for prediction in rainfed areas( 60 to 70 %)
No prediction for salt affected soils
Recommendations
1. Divert the resources to improve the fertilizer use efficiency:
– Conduct soil analysis based demand oriented trials
– Conduct soil moisture based fertilizer trials in rainfed areas
– Conduct fertilizer trials in salt affected areas
2. Improve the efficiency of soil testing laboratories
FUTURE PLANS FUTURE PLANS
• Fertilizer prediction models for Fruits plants, vegetables and minor crops
• Addition of K and micronutrients• Establishment of Farmers Facilitation Centre at
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad• Site specific fertilizer recommendations to site
specific crop production technology• Commercialization