predicting the future of trends &...
TRANSCRIPT
Predicting The Future of Trends & BrandsNOT MAGIC BUT PRETTY CLOSE!
TRENDS “JOBS” & NEEDS
TECHNOLOGYGROWTH
CUSTOMERCOMPETITION
WHAT’S THE FUTURE?
SO WHERE DO YOU GO?
MAGICINTUITIONSCIENCE
WHO IS RIGHT?
“ By 2025, 3D printers will print clothing at very low cost and 3D printers will print human organs.
Wearable mobile devices will blanket the world. This will accelerate real-time access to education, health care, jobs, entertainment and commerce.“CBD as a wellness ingredient is expected to be one of the fastest-growing product categories over the next decade, with sales predicted to grow nearly tenfold to top $5 billion by 2027.“
FUTURISTS & CONSULTANTS
Source: HuffPost May 2015
Source: CSP February 2019
Source: HuffPost May 2015
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS is a byproduct of the big data era, and involves the use of data, statistical algorithms and machine-learning techniques to identify the likelihood of future outcomes based on historical data.
VentureRadar, 2018
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
MEAT
9.1% 10.5%20182017 37%
Plant-basedPlant-basedMILK
PLANT-BASED MEAT DYNAMICS
Source: GFI 2018
WHO LEADS?
LIKELY RESULT?
WHICH MARKETS?HOW FAST?
REASONS WHY?
HOW BIG?
WHAT’S MISSING?
adds context-based and validated behavioral “science” to the “intuition” of your most knowledgeable stakeholders and customers.
SMART PARTICIPANTS
VIRTUAL INVESTMENT
CROWD BASED AI2
BUT HOW?
PARTICIPANT CONTEXT & TASK
Will pet owners buy more in-ground pet fences in 2019 than they did in 2018?1
2Yes
No
55%
45%
3 Why?
Submit
7_ +
A MAGICAL HYBRID
System 1 System 2
J U D G M E N T E M OT I O N C O N F I D E N C E R AT I O N A L E
Who Bet? How Quickly? How Much? And Why?
% Probability Response Mix How strongly felt
SEGMENT BREAKOUT QUALITATIVE GUIDANCE
63%
time (58%, 38) time (65%, 41)save (32%, 21) oil (38%, 24)oil (18%, 12) save (33%, 21)
"everybody is always
looking for ways to
save time"
"how?"
4032 1 of 1
37%63%
58% 42%
Yes No
Verbatim
Keywords
Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about
their answers
% of PeopleResponse Mix
Results Breakout
Likelihood% Probability
PREDICTION LIKELIHOOD INDEX (PLI) % OF PEOPLE STRENGTH METER
Predictions by segment Verbatim captured during response
FUTURE METRICS
NOT PROBABLENot likely based on current judgement & knowledge
POSSIBLEMight happen but requires new knowledge or technology
PLAUSIBLECould happen based on current knowledge or technology
PROBABLELikely to happen as a continuation of current trends or inertia
Types of Futures
YOUR TURN! CBD & CATEGORY SALES
Cannabidiol (CBD) is a naturally occurring compound found in the resinous flower of cannabis, a plant with a rich history as a medicine going back thousands of years. Today the therapeutic properties of CBD are being tested and confirmed by scientists and doctors around the world as a safe, non-addictive ingredient in consumer products, with significant therapeutic benefits.
Both CBD and THC have significant therapeutic attributes. But unlike THC, CBD does not make a person feel “stoned” or intoxicated. That is because CBD and THC act in different ways on different receptors in the brain and body.
CBD & CATEGORY SALES
Instructions
Go to link: http://bit.ly/huunu_iiex19
1) Pretend you get a nice bonus if you get them right!
2) Review categories and click on “Predict” button to place bet
3) Use up to 20 Tokens or as few as 1 Token per bet, OR skip it if you aren’t confident
4) Once you bet, tell us Why
5) Click “Submit”
6) You can review and Change your bets at anytime by clicking on Predictions Menu in upper left or using back arrow on mobile.
7) Sign Out or close browser when finished
CBD & CATEGORY SALES
TREND TIMINGWhen it will reach critical mass
TRENDS & JOBSOut-year needs, demand, and penetration
CONSUMER BEHAVIORMagnitude and timing of future behavior
BRAND GROWTHProjecting emerging or mature growth trajectories
REASONS WHYTo all the above
ADDITIONAL APPLICATIONS
TRENDS IN PLANT-BASED GROWTH
QUESTIONNumber of Years from Current State to Majority?
7 Years
Today, approximately 14% of U.S. households regularly buy plant-based meat substitutes…In how many years will plant-based meat substitutes be purchased on a regular basis by the majority (more than 50%) of U.S. households?
Today, approximately 25% of U.S. households regularly buy plant-based protein-rich food items…In how many years will food items with plant-based meat proteins be purchased on a regular basis by the majority (more than 50%) of U.S. households?
Today, approximately 33% of U.S. households regularly buy milk made from plants…In how many years will plant-based milk products be purchased on a regular basis by the majority (more than 50%) of U.S. households?
6 Years
6 Years
TRENDS IN PLANT-BASED GROWTH
QUESTION3-Year Household Penetration Growth?
29%In 3-YEARs, what percentage of U.S. households will buy plant-based meat substitutes on a regular basis?
In 3-YEARs, what percentage of U.S. households will buy food items with plant-based proteins on a regular basis?
In 3-YEARs, what percentage of U.S. households will buy plant-based milk products on a regular basis?
HH PENETRATION
107%
GROWTH
38% 52%
40% 21%
Why By the time millennials are head of households more than 50% of households will buy plant based proteins. Millennials are shifting the way we think about food
6 Years
“As other forms become more popular, these products will reduce in popularity, until the markets reach equilibrium
“
REASONS WHY
Growth for 3Y HH PenetrationWhy 38%
More people are going to seek extra sources of protein in case they get tired of the same old meats. Thus, more people will try plant-based protein-rich food items.
Plant based proteins are better for you and the environment and that message is catching on
“
“
1ST PLANT-BASED FOODS PURCHASED BY MAJORITY
30%
19%
9%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
Soy-based protein
Broccoli
Mushrooms
Quinoa
Lentils
Chickpeas
Chia seeds
Pea-based protein
Algae/Spirulina
Kale
Hemp seeds
Insect-based protein
Mycoprotein
Seitan
“WHY Soy-based Protein
It's a simple and widely available protein and many people are already familiar with it.
Because it is the most studied and at the forefront of current healthy foods.
Soy based protein is widely used and excepted as a protein substitute
Soy based proteins are enjoyed by both vegetarians and meat eaters.
Meat substitutes will be perceived as most healthy choice.
More and more soy based products are hitting the market
53%
20%
14%
13%
Dinner
Snacks
Lunch
Breakfast
PLANT-BASED PROTEINS IMPACT ON MEALS
QUESTION: In the next 3-YEARs, which daily meal will experience the most change from the broad introduction of plant-based foods/proteins?
Dinner is very important and eating healthy is extremely important to the body.
Everyone loves a good dinner and wants a meal that can last them for the rest of the night.
Dinner is most Americans' primary protein source. It stands to reason that the largest effect will be seen here.
“
Most people will be looking for good options for dinner, and will be more inclined to include them
WHY Dinner
CATEGORY & BRAND DISRUPTORS
Halo Top ICE CREAM FourLoko MALT LIQUOR EOS COSMETICS
RXBAR PROTEIN BARSChef’s Cut BEEF JERKYBrightFarms ORGANIC VEG
ACQUISITION & GROWTH METRICS
Will Major Brand Buy?
Fastest Growing In Its Category?
84% 40% 79% 75% 76% 77%
80% 32% 70% 69% 61% 73%
Q U E S T I O N
MOST TO GAIN BY ACQUIRING BRANDS
Which big brand would increase its stock price the most by acquiring …?
Ben and Jerry’s
Anheuser-Busch InBev
Avon Dole Jack Links Nature Valley
6.4%
3.4%
6.8%
5.3% 5.6%5.1%
7.3%
4.0%
7.6%
5.8%6.2%
5.6%
9.1%
4.8%
9.2%
7.0%7.5%
6.7%
Halo Top FourLoko EOS BrightFarms Chef's Cut RXBar
Low Mid High
PREDICTED HH PENETRATION RATES IN 3-YEARS
Estimates created using probabilities and response ranges
60%
239%
69%
431%
178%
409%
82%
297%
90%
481%
212%
464%
127%
380%
131%
596%
275%
574%
Halo Top FourLoko EOS BrightFarms ChefsCut RXBar
Low Mid High
PREDICTED 3 YEAR GROWTH RATES [Projected Yr. 3 HH Pen % - Starting %] / Starting % )
Estimates created using probabilities and response ranges
PROOF IT WORKSPrediction Accuracy 90%
QUESTIONSTUDY DATE PLI
DID IT HAPPEN? PROOF SOURCE (IRI POS)
Will people between the ages of 18 and 55 who use acne skin care products purchase this new acne skin care?
July 16 83% YesPart of #1 Selling Acne Treatment line on market today and Allure Best Beauty Award Winner 2017.
Will the below Lip Care product become a top selling lip balm?
Nov 15 92% Yes #3 Lip Treatment in the Category
Will this soup product appeal to people who consume soup?
Jan 17 93% Yes Launched and is now the #10 selling Soup brand
Will parents with children ages 4 to 11 definitely buy this product?
Nov 15 98% YesShare increased 1.2 pts for this product in the Frozen Handheld Entrees Category
Will this package motivate pork consumers to buy this product? Will it stand out on shelf?
Mar 17
93% Purchase
YesSales up 77% in $ and 89% in volume in last 52 weeks; # 1 Pork Product in NE Region 84% Stand Out
Will this Italian sauce definitely be purchased by consumers who purchase high quality sauces?
Jun 16
77% Gen PopYes In-Market, winning in a niche market
90% Target…and more
PROOF IT WORKSPrediction Accuracy 90%
…and more
QUESTIONSTUDY DATE PLI
DID IT HAPPEN? PROOF SOURCE
Digital fitness devices (like the Nike Fuel Band) will become part of most people's fitness routines in 2 years.
Nov 11 70% Yeshttp://www.gfk.com/news-and-events/press-room/press-releases/pages/gfk-forecasts-51-million-wearables-sold-globally-2015.aspx
More consumers will upgrade their video game systems to PS4 than to Xbox One in the next 12 months.
Nov 13 82% Yeshttp://www.extremetech.com/gaming/187371-ps4-outselling-the-xbox-one-3-to-1-as-total-sales-gap-grows-to-9-million-vs-5-million
Fewer single serve coffee makers will be sold in 2014 compared to 2013.
Jan 14 39% Nohttp://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/stocks/news/press_release.asp?docTag=201503250900BIZWIRE_USPRX____BW5139&feedID=600&press_symbol=139881
Gluten-free options will become more widely available in 2014 than in 2013.
Jan 14 90% Yeshttp://health.usnews.com/health-news/blogs/eat-run/2014/04/18/hello-gluten-free-goodbye-organic
Google Glass will be a flop when launched. Jan 14 74% Yes http://bgr.com/2015/03/18/why-did-google-glass-fail-astro-teller/
Macy's Department Stores will see a 10% increase in sales in the next 3 months compared to this time last year.
Jan 14 32% No http://marketrealist.com/2015/03/macys-largest-department-store-sees-sluggish-top-line/
Duck Dynasty will be twice as popular in 6 months than it is today.
Mar 14 24% Nohttp://variety.com/2014/tv/ratings/aes-duck-dynasty-opens-season-6-with-more-declines-1201219469/
PROOF IT WORKSPrediction Accuracy 90%
QUESTIONSTUDY DATE PLI
DID IT HAPPEN? PROOF SOURCE
In the next year, Apple will have an iPhone with a screen larger than 5 inches.
May 14 86% Yes https://www.apple.com/iphone-6/specs/
Consumers will be very likely to purchase a smartphone with a 6” or larger screen.
Jul 14 75% Yeshttps://www.yahoo.com/tech/remember-when-cellphone-makers-were-fighting-tooth-103128266514.html
If Apple were to release an iPhone with a 6” or larger screen, it will sell fewer units than the Samsung Galaxy during the initial year.
Jul 14 41% Nohttp://appleinsider.com/articles/15/01/28/samsungs-mobile-profits-plunge-642-after-apples-iphone-6-devastates-premium-galaxy-sales
Will more people watch Reality TV shows in 2015 than did in 2014?
May 15 70% Nohttp://www.latimes.com/entertainment/tv/la-et-st-reality-television-20141228-story.html (2014) ; http://www.vulture.com/2015/09/reality-tv-boom-days-are-over.html (2015)
In 2016, will people be wearing more active and athletic pants than they are today?
May 15 87% Yeshttp://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/10/06/the-athleisure-trend-is-here-to-stay/#4d066e19db23
ABC's Good Morning America is beating NBC's Today show in total viewership by 1%. Will GMA have the most total viewers at the end of 2016?
Jan 16 70% Yeshttp://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/morning-show-ratings-week-of-december-26-2/316058
Will the Republicans maintain control of the Senate with 51 or more members after the November election?
Aug 16 60% Yes http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate
FUTURE-CASTING EXPERIENCE
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR & INNOVATION
Casual Dining Brand & Traffic
Adult Coloring
Meal Delivery Kits
Vision Care Services
Care "Down There" Hygiene
Smart Appliance and Pricing
Beauty Care and Subscription Personalization
Snacking & Natural/Healthy Ingredients
In Home Baking Needs
HH Penetration & Acquisition
Confectionary & Consumer Confidence
INDUSTRY & TECH
Extreme Weather & Green
Parent Care & Ageing
Realtor Dwelling & Living Trends
Insurance Digital Targeting
Insurance AI, Robo, & Mobile
Mobile & Social Event Ticketing
Secondary Education Models
Community-sourced Investment
Canadian Banking and Advisory Services
Business & Tech Transformation
3-D Printing & Cord Cutting
OLED TV Sales & Pricing
WHAT IS YOUR FUTURE?
Provide your top trends and questions
1
…and 3 brands for 3Y growth rates
2
KEY INDUSTRY TREND(S)
BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3
We will run an IIeX HuunuFutures wave and share results with you following the show!
