potato trends in a modern market - teagasc · © kantar worldpanel 0 50 100 150 200 250 300...

© Kantar Worldpanel© Kantar Worldpanel

Potato trends in a Modern MarketCliona Lynch - Kantar Worldpanel

© Kantar Worldpanel

Agenda

1. Close up on a Modern Consumer

2. Potatoes still central to Irish meals

3. How are Potatoes performing?

4. Where can we address challenges?


3


Sentiment at its highest since January 2006

Source: ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index


3.8%

2.0%

-0.6%

2.4%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%9

02

90

4

90

6

90

8

91

0

91

2

10

01

10

03

10

05

10

07

10

09

10

11

10

13

11

02

11

04

11

06

11

08

11

10

11

12

12

01

12

03

12

05

12

07

12

09

12

11

12

13

13

02

13

04

13

06

13

08

13

10

13

12

14

01

14

03

14

05

14

07

14

09

14

11

14

13

15

02

15

04

15

06

15

08

15

10

15

12

Inflation HH Spend change

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Ireland (ROI )Grocery inflation across 38,000 items

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ROI market growth vs. inflation

2014 2015


–+0.8 trip

–+2.2%

–+2%

–-2.3%

–NC

–-0.2 trip

–+3.6%

–+1%

–+5.5%

–+2.6%

Shoppers relaxed the purse strings this Christmas

–More Trips?

–Average spend

–Volume Bought

–Trip Spend

Price Paid

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, data to 3rd Jan 2016


-0.015 -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

% Change inPrice

HOUSEHOLD

ALCOHOL

FROZEN

AMBIENTGROCERIES

HEALTHCARE

TOILETRIES

TOTAL MARKET

TOTAL FOOD

TOTAL FRESH &CHILLED

Change on price versus lastChristmas

Chart Footnote

We paid more for Fresh Food this year…


7

Battle between treat and health categories…

KWP Total Grocery Data 4 weeks to 4th Jan 2015 – growth +5% within Top Markets

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 4 w/e 3rd Jan 2016


8

-2

1

5 6

9

0.1

46

3

12

4 4

9

6

13

LidlAldiDunnesSuperValuTesco

4 w/e Growth

12 w/e Growth

52 w/e Growth

Ab

so

lute

Va

lue

Sa

les€

m

Strong momentum across the retail sector

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data To 3rd Jan 2016


25.0

25.6

23.7

7.2

7.7

25.2

25.0

24.0

7.7

7.7

SuperValu claimed top spot at Christmas with a slightedge over Tesco

4.7

1.3

5.1

12

3.4

Retailer Value Share % Sales Change

Source: Kantar Worldpanel 8 w/e 3rd Jan 2016


Agenda






143 million* packs of potatoes sold in 2015

Potatoes are bought onceevery 2 secondsin Irish Retailers

1.65 million households purchasing annually

11


11%

23%

Occasions Spend

€19.80€46.70

11% of all shopping trips feature potatoes. These tripscontribute 23% of all sales. When potatoes are included in thebasket, these grocery trips are worth more than averagehighlighting the importance of the potato category to retailers


% of households buying (penetration)…

From a shopperperspective Potatoes

are the 8th mostimportant category in

store

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Jan 2016

100%

99%

99%

97%

98%

97%

97%

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

99%


Potatoes and Frozen Potato Products together account for 84%of main meal carbs

72%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Main Meal Carbohydrates

Cous Cous

Noodles

Sweet Potatoes

Rice

Pizza

Pasta

Frozen Potato Products

Potatoes

14

52 w/e | % Volume Share (kgs)


Agenda






03-Jan-16 vs. Previous Year

Potatoes | Total Outlets | 52 w/e | Previous Year

Potato sales are up from last year as a result of price increasesand shoppers making more trips to buy.

16


After a drop in 2014 Potato sales have recovered again in 2015but are still below 2007/8 levels

207,801197,388

175,964160,752

144,580

169,111

187,412

143,288

163,419

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

17

€ 000 Value Sales


In volume terms however, Potatoes are back to 2008 levels witha strong recovery in the last two years

192,526

186,379182,349 181,969

172,197

164,704

183,397

195,405

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Potato Volume kg 000 Sales

18


For the first time in 7 years, Potatoes saw growth in both Valueand Volume terms in 2015

-1.5

-5.1-7.8

-10.5

14.1

10.8

-23.5

14.0

-1.5

-5.1-2.2 -1.9 -1.4

-6.1

11.3

6.5

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Value Change Volume Change


Frequency of purchase has recovered since lows of 2011 andlast year’s dip with shoppers now buying Potatoes more than 34times a year – in line with 2008/9 levels

34.7 34.6

32.5

31.5

34 33.9

32.7

34.4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

20


140134

120113 112 110

103113 119

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Volume per household (kgs)

Since 2013 we have also seen recovery in the volumes thathouseholds buy – as they are willing to purchase more potatoes oneach trip but this remains much lower than 2007/8 levels


26 30 35

5954 55 53 50 49

1214

14

13

10 10 108 12

66

5

1022 21 28

2935

3736

35

1415 14

914

4

19 15 113

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0-2.5kg 5kg 7.5kg 10kg >10kg

The trend towards less than 2.5kg packs has reversed with 7.5kgpacks now at 35% share and growing steadily

% volume share


23

In volume terms Roosters have a clear lead and over 50% ofthe category sales. Queens & Kerr Pinks are also growing share

52

35

4 4 3 2 1

53

32

5 5 3 2 00.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

04-Jan-15 03-Jan-16

Product % of Category Volume | Actual | Total Outlets | 52 w/e


24

Roosters and Queens are winning more trips, this along withprice increases for these types is driving market growth03-Jan-16 vs. Previous Year

Total Outlets | 52 w/e | Previous Year


Agenda






Where are the retailer opportunities?

26


03-Jan-16 vs. Previous Year

Potatoes | 52 w/e | Previous Year

27

Discounters are making strong gains in the market. Tesco, Dunnesand SuperValu are all losing Potato shoppers. Dunnes andSuperValu are also losing volumes per trip

+14%

+7%

+19%

+11%

+35%

+19%


28

What are the opportunities for Potatoes?

Recruit back lost shoppers & improve volumesper trip

Under-trading vs Fruit & Veg overall – win backshoppers & increase volume per trip

Under-trading vs Total Grocery – win backshoppers & look at increasing prices

Under-trading vs Fruit & Veg – focus on shopperconversion

Under-trading vs Fruit & Veg – focus on shopperconversion


Which shoppers should we focus on?

29


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Pre-Family Young Family Middle Family 45+ Family OlderDependants

EmptyNesters

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average volume benchmark

30

Pre-Family households have increased their volumes since 2012 butare still below the market benchmark. Young Families remain flatwhile Empty Nesters are decreasing


Are other carbs stealing share from Potatoes?

31


In % terms Sweet Potatoes and Cous Cous see strong growth butif we look at actual volumes Potatoes are contributing the mostgrowth both in fresh & frozen processed

16,754

3,251 2,067 429 266 160 37

-1,036Potatoes Frozen

PotatoProducts

Pasta Rice Noodles Cous Cous SweetPotatoes

Pizza

5 year actual volume change

32

80.5

12.1 9.2 7.8 6.5 5 2.3

-8.3

SweetPotatoes

Cous Cous Potatoes Noodles FrozenPotato

Products

Rice Pasta Pizza

5 year % volume change


33

0

5000

10000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Volume sales

Sweet Potato

0

200

400

600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Volume sales

Cous Cous

While Sweet Potato growth has accelerated since 2013, CousCous has started to lose volumes in the same period


Volume switches show shoppers moving less spend directly toother carbs

34

Pack switch 52we 3rd Jan 2016

90k49k

7k

74k

14k

3k

9k


35


-862

3,051

-41

0

-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Total Switching

Shoppers Held

Shoppers Lost

Category Arrivals

Source of Potatoes Packs (000s) Change - year ending 03 Jan 2016

CategoryLevelChanges

Although Potato sees some switching losses spend with existingshoppers has increased as more packs are purchased YoY


An eye on trends

36


Health remains high on shoppers’ agenda

37


Staying in touch with your consumer

38


McCain leads the pack on NPD

39


An eye on the competition

40


Where to from here?

41


Key take aways

Vital Category

Drive Footfall

Key to high € trips

Back in Value & Volumegrowth – prices up and

shoppers returning moreoften

Sweet Potato in strong %growth but Potato growing

more in actual volume

Potatoes now also growingahead of Rice, Noodles &

Pasta

Gaining switched volumesback from Pizza

Shopper frequency nowdriving growth – next step =

grow volume on each trip

Growing younger shopperinterest – increase focus on

young families

Ensure we continue toengage older generation

potato trends in a modern market - teagasc · © kantar worldpanel 0 50 100 150 200 250 300...

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