positioning noaa for tomorrow’s challenges

Positioning Positioning NOAA for NOAA for

Tomorrow’s Tomorrow’s ChallengesChallenges



Mary M. GlackinActing Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007

22Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's ChallengesPositioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

OutlineOutline

Vision and Mission

NOAA Priorities

Opportunities and challenges


NOAA’s Vision NOAA’s Vision


NOAA’s MissionNOAA’s Mission


*In FY’03, the House did not report or pass an SJC appropriations bill. The House-Introduced bill total is used here.

*

($ in Billions)

Spend Plan

NOAA Funding TrendsNOAA Funding Trends


OutlineOutline

Vision and Mission

NOAA Priorities



Sustaining Critical Operations

Sustaining Critical Operations

NWSNESDISOARNOSNMFS

Supercomputing System

Phased Array Radar

NOAA Ship RON BROWN

Global Monitoring Division—South Pole

Argo Floats

PI WP-3D Orion and

Gulfstream Jet Satellite Operations

NOAA’s Line Offices in the US

DART II Buoy,


Enhancing Climate Monitoring and Research

•NOAA Observations and Research have been key in recent Climate assessments and reports.

50th Anniversary of the Global Carbon Dioxide Record

•NOAA has stepped up our efforts in improved Climate Services

•Key Functions Understand the Past and Current State

of the Climate Advance predictive understanding and

Skill about the future state of climate Assess evolving user needs and context Communicate Coordinate and collaborate Build on our existing capabilities

Polar Orbiting Satellite (NOAA M)


Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting

48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5%/ year since 1985

Reduction in track forecast errors by ~33% in last 15 years

Intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year

Hurricane forecast improvement plan under development

Tornado Lead-Time Warning Lead times increased from 5 to 11

minutes Accuracy increased from 49% to 75% Dual Polarization radar underway Exploring phased array radar technology

Improving Weather Warnings and Forecasts

Improving Weather Warnings and Forecasts


Supporting the U.S. Ocean Action Plan

Supporting the U.S. Ocean Action PlanOcean Science and Research ($60M)

Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Hurricane Hazards & Watershed Influences Ocean Health Initiative

Protecting and Restoring Marine & Coastal Areas ($38M)

Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument

Marine Debris Gulf of Mexico Regional Alliance * Northeast Regional Ocean Council (NROC) *West Coast Governor’s Agreement on

Ocean Health*Not funded

Ensuring Sustainable Use of Ocean Resources ($25M)

Magnuson-Stevens Act Reauthorization Implementation

National Offshore Aquaculture Act Coral Reef Ecosystems Conservation Act


OutlineOutline

Vision and Mission

NOAA Priorities



Developing a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for Societal Benefit

Improve Weather Forecasting Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters Protect and Monitor our Ocean Resource Understand Climate Change Combat Land Degradation Understand Environmental Factors on Human Health Develop Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts Protect and Monitor Water Resources Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

U.S. Leadership in Earth Observations

U.S. Leadership in Earth Observations


Balancing Priorities In the Future

Balancing Priorities In the Future

AltairUnmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)

GOES-R

NPOESS

NOAA’s Environmental Real Time Observation Network (NERON)NOAA Profiler Network (NPN)

Chesapeake Bay Interpretive Buoy

System (CBIBS)

“Smart” WeatherBalloons


Improved Environmental Modeling

Improved Environmental Modeling

NOAA’s Modeling Capabilities are Broad and Expanding

Example: Climate Models, OSSE’s

Goal: Increase model resolution and complexity:

Result: More computationally

expensive to run Adding the global carbon

cycle makes the model 2x as computationally expensive to run

Adding chemistry to address global air quality and climate change makes the model 3x as expensive to run

50 km resolutionShort-term

Target

200 km resolutionCurrent Climate

Model

4 km resolutionObservations

10x m

ore

computational pow

er


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

“…warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”

Climate Change as Emerging Political

Imperative

Climate Change as Emerging Political

Imperative


Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative (cont.)

Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative (cont.)

Assess evolving user needs and context

Assess Climate, Impacts and Adaptation

Climate Services Development and Delivery

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/


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120 hr

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48 hr

24 hr 0

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(kt)

Year

120 hr

72 hr

48 hr

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Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC Atlantic Intensity and Track

Forecasts

Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC Atlantic Intensity and Track

Forecasts

48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have

improved about 0.8% per year

48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have

improved about 0.8% per year

Track Intensity

Research to Practical Applications

Research to Practical Applications

Improving Hurricane Forecasting


Archiving & Data Stewardship

Archiving & Data Stewardship

The Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) is NOAA’s premier on-line facility for the distribution of NOAA and DOD meteorological satellite data.

Major satellite systems archive growth 2000 - 2020

GOES-R

NPOESS


Positioning NOAA for Success

Positioning NOAA for Success

•Partnering Advanced planning with partners

and stakeholders Research to applications: Taking a

proactive approach

•Rigorous management of acquisitions

• Continued focus on operational service delivery





Mary M. GlackinActing Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007

positioning noaa for tomorrow’s challenges

Documents

challengespositioning

tomorrows challengeschart12

tomorrows challengesmary

mintegrated ocean

future state of climate

recent climate assessments

ocean action planocean

forecastshurricane track