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Positioning Positioning NOAA for NOAA for
Tomorrow’s Tomorrow’s ChallengesChallenges
Positioning Positioning NOAA for NOAA for
Tomorrow’s Tomorrow’s ChallengesChallenges
Mary M. GlackinActing Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007
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OutlineOutline
Vision and Mission
NOAA Priorities
Opportunities and challenges
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NOAA’s Vision NOAA’s Vision
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NOAA’s MissionNOAA’s Mission
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*In FY’03, the House did not report or pass an SJC appropriations bill. The House-Introduced bill total is used here.
*
($ in Billions)
Spend Plan
NOAA Funding TrendsNOAA Funding Trends
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OutlineOutline
Vision and Mission
NOAA Priorities
Opportunities and challenges
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Sustaining Critical Operations
Sustaining Critical Operations
NWSNESDISOARNOSNMFS
Supercomputing System
Phased Array Radar
NOAA Ship RON BROWN
Global Monitoring Division—South Pole
Argo Floats
PI WP-3D Orion and
Gulfstream Jet Satellite Operations
NOAA’s Line Offices in the US
DART II Buoy,
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Enhancing Climate Monitoring and Research
•NOAA Observations and Research have been key in recent Climate assessments and reports.
50th Anniversary of the Global Carbon Dioxide Record
•NOAA has stepped up our efforts in improved Climate Services
•Key Functions Understand the Past and Current State
of the Climate Advance predictive understanding and
Skill about the future state of climate Assess evolving user needs and context Communicate Coordinate and collaborate Build on our existing capabilities
Polar Orbiting Satellite (NOAA M)
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Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting
48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5%/ year since 1985
Reduction in track forecast errors by ~33% in last 15 years
Intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year
Hurricane forecast improvement plan under development
Tornado Lead-Time Warning Lead times increased from 5 to 11
minutes Accuracy increased from 49% to 75% Dual Polarization radar underway Exploring phased array radar technology
Improving Weather Warnings and Forecasts
Improving Weather Warnings and Forecasts
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Supporting the U.S. Ocean Action Plan
Supporting the U.S. Ocean Action PlanOcean Science and Research ($60M)
Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Hurricane Hazards & Watershed Influences Ocean Health Initiative
Protecting and Restoring Marine & Coastal Areas ($38M)
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
Marine Debris Gulf of Mexico Regional Alliance * Northeast Regional Ocean Council (NROC) *West Coast Governor’s Agreement on
Ocean Health*Not funded
Ensuring Sustainable Use of Ocean Resources ($25M)
Magnuson-Stevens Act Reauthorization Implementation
National Offshore Aquaculture Act Coral Reef Ecosystems Conservation Act
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OutlineOutline
Vision and Mission
NOAA Priorities
Opportunities and challenges
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Developing a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for Societal Benefit
Improve Weather Forecasting Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters Protect and Monitor our Ocean Resource Understand Climate Change Combat Land Degradation Understand Environmental Factors on Human Health Develop Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts Protect and Monitor Water Resources Monitor and Manage Energy Resources
U.S. Leadership in Earth Observations
U.S. Leadership in Earth Observations
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Balancing Priorities In the Future
Balancing Priorities In the Future
AltairUnmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)
GOES-R
NPOESS
NOAA’s Environmental Real Time Observation Network (NERON)NOAA Profiler Network (NPN)
Chesapeake Bay Interpretive Buoy
System (CBIBS)
“Smart” WeatherBalloons
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Improved Environmental Modeling
Improved Environmental Modeling
NOAA’s Modeling Capabilities are Broad and Expanding
Example: Climate Models, OSSE’s
Goal: Increase model resolution and complexity:
Result: More computationally
expensive to run Adding the global carbon
cycle makes the model 2x as computationally expensive to run
Adding chemistry to address global air quality and climate change makes the model 3x as expensive to run
50 km resolutionShort-term
Target
200 km resolutionCurrent Climate
Model
4 km resolutionObservations
10x m
ore
computational pow
er
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“…warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
Climate Change as Emerging Political
Imperative
Climate Change as Emerging Political
Imperative
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Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative (cont.)
Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative (cont.)
Assess evolving user needs and context
Assess Climate, Impacts and Adaptation
Climate Services Development and Delivery
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
MA
E (n
mi)
Year
120 hr
72 hr
48 hr
24 hr 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MAE
(kt)
Year
120 hr
72 hr
48 hr
24 hr
Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC Atlantic Intensity and Track
Forecasts
Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC Atlantic Intensity and Track
Forecasts
48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have
improved about 0.8% per year
48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have
improved about 0.8% per year
Track Intensity
Research to Practical Applications
Research to Practical Applications
Improving Hurricane Forecasting
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Archiving & Data Stewardship
Archiving & Data Stewardship
The Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) is NOAA’s premier on-line facility for the distribution of NOAA and DOD meteorological satellite data.
Major satellite systems archive growth 2000 - 2020
GOES-R
NPOESS
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Positioning NOAA for Success
Positioning NOAA for Success
•Partnering Advanced planning with partners
and stakeholders Research to applications: Taking a
proactive approach
•Rigorous management of acquisitions
• Continued focus on operational service delivery
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Positioning Positioning NOAA for NOAA for
Tomorrow’s Tomorrow’s ChallengesChallenges
Positioning Positioning NOAA for NOAA for
Tomorrow’s Tomorrow’s ChallengesChallenges
Mary M. GlackinActing Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007