politics clashes with trust on the internet
TRANSCRIPT
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SO BLUETONGUE virus is in northern Europe,
perhaps to stay. While its arrival was
predictable, the manner of its appearance
was quite the opposite. It comes as a timely
warning of the surprises that might be in
store as global warming upsets the exquisite
balance between Earth’s creatures.
Bluetongue is a virus of ruminants that
is carried by biting flies called midges (or in
some places, no-see-ums). It is resident in the
tropics and in warm areas of North America
and Australia, where livestock have mostly
evolved resistance. Since 1998 it has crept
north into Europe as the tropical midge that
carries it has moved into new territory (see
www.newscientist.com/article/dn12756).
The disease’s path precisely tracked the
pattern of increasing night-time and winter
temperatures. Europe’s livestock have no
resistance, and as the midge moved through
Italy, Iberia, southern France and the Balkans,
bluetongue killed more than a million sheep.
Scientists warned in 2002 that northern
European midges can carry bluetongue too,
and might pick up where the southern midge
left off. Then in 2006 the virus sprang a
surprise: a South African strain, different
from the viruses then creeping northwards,
appeared in the Netherlands and spread
rapidly across northern Europe . In August
2007 the same strain surfaced again: it had
overwintered, though no one quite knows
how. One idea is that it may lurk, ingeniously,
in cows’ immune cells.
This was not a simple matter of a disease-
carrying insect moving north but complicated
nature adapting in complicated ways. Global
warming had created conditions in northern
Europe that allowed a one-off infection to
explode. Midge species that normally do not
carry bluetongue can do so when it gets
warmer. They have temperature-sensitive
genes. As the climate warms, the midges grow
faster and have thinner gut walls, which the
virus can penetrate. Warmer, wetter weather
means more flies, while the virus replicates
faster. A perfect combination for invasion.
There is more waiting in the wings. West
Nile virus is affected by warming in similar
ways to bluetongue, as are its relatives such as
St Louis encephalitis virus and other insect-
borne maladies such as chikungunya and Rift
Valley fever, which has already moved out of
Africa. African horse sickness can go wherever
bluetongue goes. Farmers just beyond
bluetongue’s reach in North America and
Australia may be no safer than Europe was.
Who knows what other plagues of people,
animals or crops will follow from global
warming? We are about to find out. ●
TAKE a look at YouTube or Facebook and you
will see politicians following the trend to
move online. The web offers new opportunities
for political parties and candidates to reach
huge audiences, and a quick way for supporters
to donate. In 2004 US presidential candidate
John Kerry raised a record $3 million online in
a single day.
Moving politics online is not without peril,
however, as old con tricks become newly
treacherous. Online scammers can easily
adapt “phishing” methods to collect the bank
details of unwary political donors and divert
would-be donations into their own coffers. And
the anonymity of the web means that smearing
candidates and spreading misinformation has
never been easier (see page 30).
Con tricks are especially damaging in
politics, where interfering with an election –
by spreading misinformation about who
can vote, say – undermines the democratic
process. They also present campaign
managers with a dilemma. Candidates
increasingly rely on the “impulse clicks” of
supporters for donations, often on unfamiliar
payment sites, and so they must maintain
trust. Consequently, they may be tempted
to keep news of phishing attacks under wraps
and write off a percentage of donations lost
this way, rather than risk a sharper drop in
support caused by jittery donors.
Using well-known websites such as PayPal
for donations could help, and technical fixes
are being sought to boost contributors’
confidence that the sites they visit are
legitimate. In the meantime, politicians and
their campaign teams will have to stay
vigilant, just like the rest of us. ●
It’s the trust economy, stupid
Out of the blueHow many more nasty surprises are in store as the world warms?
www.newscientist.com 13 October 2007 | NewScientist | 3
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