Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space Physics

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Why forecast indices?

• Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon

• Used to drive models

• Large data sets available for– Analysis– Model evaluation– Model development

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Outline

• Some applications using geomagnetic indices• Real-time forecasts• The Lund Dst model

– Model evaluation

– Short term dynamics

– Long term dynamics

– Real-time operation

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Magnetospheric Specification Model

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html

- Kp

Input:

50 keV el.

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment

- Solar wind- Dst

Inputs:

http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html

10 keV to 5 MeV electrons10 keV to 1 MeV protons

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

SWRI

http://climatology.space.swri.edu/

Input: - Dst

Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeV

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Stormshttp://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

Kp Scale

5 G1

6 G2

7 G3

8 – 9- G4

9 G5

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Input: - Kp

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Kp for GIC forecasts

Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Real-time forecastsIndex URL

AE http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/ae.htmlhttp://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/vassi/rt/main.html

Dst http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/dst.htmlhttp://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/klimas/htmls/dst.htmlhttp://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/http://www2.crl.go.jp/uk/uk223/service/http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.htmlhttp://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index/http://www.iki.rssi.ru/apetruko/forecast/forecast.html

Kp http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/index.htmlhttp://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.html

Ap http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.htmlhttp://www.sepc.ac.cn/english/

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)

Models Indices

http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind

Solar Wind Monitor

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc

Kp at RWC-Sweden

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc

Dst at RWC-Sweden

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Matlab

Java

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Overall performance of different Dst models

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst

t

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Power spectrum

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Wavelet of Dst

27 d

0.5 y1 y

1.3 y

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Wavelet of predicted Dst

27 d

0.5 y1 y

1.3 y

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Effect of data gaps

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Future

• List of updated forecast models– ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!)– Plots, Data, Models– Evaluation

• Evaluation– RMS error and correlation (overall performance)– Skill scores (comparative overall performance)– Onset times– Long term dynamics– Real time performance

Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Indices

Power grid

Spacecraft