perspectives of the northern sea routes in the 21st century from model simulations vyacheslav khon...

Perspectives of the Northern Sea Routes in

the 21st century from model simulations

Vyacheslav Khon 1,2, Igor Mokhov 1, Mojib Latif 3,

Vladimir Semenov 1,3, Wonsun Park 3

[email protected], [email protected]

(1) A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (Moscow)(2) Institute of Geosciences, University of Kiel(3) Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR)

TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

Objectives

• To estimate navigation season length along the Northern Sea Route from satellite data and model simulations

• To assess consequences of climatic changes for the economical benefit and perspective of the Arctic transport systems in the 21st century



Changes of September Arctic sea ice extent (1979-2008)



ObservationsSatellite data (SMMR-SSM/I) Sea-ice concentration, daily data 25x25 km (1979-2007)

IPCC-AR4 Global Climate Modelsanthropogenic scenario SRES-A1BSea-ice concentration, daily data (1900-2100)

To determine the current changes in the Arctic sea ice cover we used satellite data for the sea ice concentration at high spatial (25-km grid) and temporary (daily) resolution during the last 30 years. To estimate the possible changes in the Arctic basin in the 21st century we analyzed results of simulations with the IPCC-AR4 ensemble of global climate models.



IPCC-AR4 Global Climate Models



Mean, days

240 260 280 300 320 340 360

Ch

ang

e, d

ays

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

BCM2CCSM3CGCM3-T47CGCM3-T63CNRMCSIRO3.0CSIRO3.5ECHAM5ECHO-GGFDL2.0GFDL2.1GISS-AOMGISS-ERHadCM3HadGEM1INMIPSLKCMMIROC-HRMIROC-ERMRIObservations

Long-term means and changes of the ice season length along the NSR (1980-1999): observations and model simulations



Ice season length (days) simulated by global climate models (1980-1999)



Ice season length (days) averaged over selected ‘best’ models

and by satellite data (1980-1999)Satellite data Multi-model mean



Changes of sea ice season length (days): satellite data in comparison to multi-model simulations (1998-2007 relative to 1979-1988)

Satellite data Multi-model mean



Ice season length changes by the end of the 21st century: multi-model average for 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999

Annual mean December-May June-November

Change of the ice season length (months)





Navigation season length along the NSR and NWP from satellites and climate models (A1B scenario)

Khon et al. 2009

Soft criterion

Navigation season length along the NSR from satellites and the ‘best’ climate model HadGEM1 (A1B scenario)

Years

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Satellite dataHadGEM1

Years

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Na

vig

ati

on

se

as

on

le

ng

th,

da

ys

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Satellite dataHadGEM1

50% ice concentration30% ice concentration



Rigid criterion

Economical aspects

• The increase of marine navigation season may significantly reduce expenses, shorten mean shipping time and diminish the risks.

• Increased reliability and decreased transit traffic cost may significantly raise a commercial attraction of the Arctic transportation (compared to the Suez or Panama Canals).



Ice extent (106 km2)

3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Fre

igh

t ra

te (

US

D/t

)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Freight rate for the Europe-Asia transit through the NSR (40,000 DWT container ship) as a function of the sea ice extent

in the NSR sector (30E-190E; 60N-90N)

Linear regression coefficient ≈ 3$/(t 106km2)



Years1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Monthly freight rateAnnual mean freight rateSuez Canal transit rate (Kitagawa, 2001)

Fre

igh

t ra

te (

no

rmal

ized

)

Monthly (dashed) and annual (solid) mean freight rates for the Europe-Asia transit through the NSR (normalized to SC transit

rate) from multi-model simulations with A1B scenario



• The multi-model means over selected ‘best’ models for the present climate are in a good agreement with observations.

• Simulations show prolongation of the NSR navigation season with about 4-5 months of free passage by the end of 21st century according to A1B scenario.


Conclusions


• Economical benefit from the Arctic transportation may become competitive to the traditional Europe-Asia routes through the Suez or Panama Canals by the middle of the 21st century

• According to the model estimates, the year-round transit cost from western Europe to the Far East through the NSR may be lower by 15% in comparison with transit through the Suez Canal by the end of the 21st century

• To make use of the NSR potential, however, a considerable modernization of the Arctic transport system and construction of new ice reinforced container ships is required.

Conclusions



• Khon, V.C., I.I. Mokhov, M. Latif, V.A. Semenov, and W. Park (2009) Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the 21st century, Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9683-2 (published on-line).

• Mokhov, I.I., V.C. Khon, and E. Roeckner (2007) Variations in the ice cover of the Arctic Basin in the 21st century based on model simulations: Estimates of the perspectives of the Northern Sea Route, Dokl. Earth Sci., 415, 759-763.

Publications



The presented above results are based on a “linear approach”



Stroeve et al. 2007: Climate model projections

21st century

IPCC AR4: Arcric sea ice observations

HadISST1.1 sea iceand Arctic temperature

Is the recent sea ice melt unprecedented?



HadISST1.1 + All forcing

Atmospheric GCM (ECHAM5) forced by HadISST1.1 data

Impact of the natural multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic on Arctic sea ice suggests a slowdown of the sea ice decrease in the following decades



NA THC

International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference, 8-12 June 2010

Semenov V.A.

1. Validation of the early 20th century sea ice data in the Arctic: a GCM approach

2. The role of the Arctic as an amplifier of climate variability and change



Thank you for your attention!


Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage



Arctic sea ice extent from satellite data

September 2007 September 2008


perspectives of the northern sea routes in the 21st century from model simulations vyacheslav khon...

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