Mojib Latif GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and University of Kiel

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A dynamical/statistical approach to predict multidecadal AMOC variability and related North Atlantic SST anomalies. monthly AMO index 1948 - 2012. Mojib Latif GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and University of Kiel. Thanks to M. Klwer , H. Ding, R. Greatbatch , W. Park. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global warming: Where do we stand?

A dynamical/statistical approach to predict multidecadal AMOC variability and related North Atlantic SST anomaliesMojib LatifGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and University of Kiel

Thanks to M. Klwer, H. Ding, R. Greatbatch, W. Parkmonthly AMO index 1948 - 2012SAT trend 1980-2012

There is a marked inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the warming during the last decades, especially in the AtlanticNew analysis of North Atlantic surface heat fluxes since 1880

suggests that the ocean drives SST at decadal time scalesCan we predict the AMO given the large model biases?

CMIP5 multi-model mean SST bias (39 models)model bias may prevent us from exploiting the decadal full predictability potentialThe null hypothesis for multi-decadal AMOC variability

NAO-related SAT pattern (C), +1The NAO affects Labrador Sea convection which in turn drives AMOC (Delworth and Greatbatch, 2000; Eden and Jung, 2001)

The NAO drives convection in the North Atlantic, which in turn drives the AMOC

Latif and Keenlyside 2011Dynamical/statistical approach to predict North Atlantic SST

force the Kiel Climate Model by NAO-related heat flux anomaliesuse the KCMs AMOC as predictor to statistically predict observed North Atlantic SSTobserved NA SSTHindcast of the AMOC 1900-2010

Kiel Climate Model forced by NAO-related heat flux anomalies

Klwer et al. 2013Link between the KCMs AMOC and observed North Atlantic SST

Klwer et al. 2013

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and observed North Atlantic SSTAMOC leads SST by 21 yearsKlwer et al. 2013AMOC lags SST by 10 yearsStatistical link between the models AMOC and the observed NA SST10Explained variances by the two CCA modes

AMOC lags SST by 10 yearsAMOC leads SST by 21 yearssuggests a rather high decadal predictability potential of North Atlantic SSTKlwer et al. 2013Forecast of North Atlantic SST until 2030

Klwer et al. 2013Dynamical/statistical prediction based on the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Kiel Climate Models AMOCTake home messageClimate models are useful tools to study the dynamics and predictability of climate variability and change. However, they suffer from large biases. Model improvement is a key issue during the next years.

In the meantime, hybrid approaches may prove useful.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299NACLIM www.naclim.eu

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