performance of indian agri sector

8/6/2019 Performance of Indian Agri Sector

1/12

Performance of IndianAgriculture Sector 2010-11

FATP -14

Hardik Kapadia

Jaya Lalwani

Pavan Karumuri

Laveena Bhatia


2/12

Agenda

Introduction to Agriculture Sector

Trends of Agriculture growth from 2007-08 to 2010-11

Trends of important crops output from 2007-08 to 2010-11

Measures taken by Government to improve Agriculture Output

Expected monsoon during 2011-12 and its impact on Agriculturesector

Outlook


3/12

Introduction to Agriculture Sector

Agriculture sector remains the principal source of livelihood formore than 58% of the population.

Compared to other countries, India faces a greater challenge, sincewith only 2.3% share in worlds total land area.

Its contribution to the national GDP has declined to 14.2% due tohigh growth experienced in industries and services sectors.

As per the Advance Estimates (AE) of CSO for the year 2010-11, the

agricultural sector contributed about 14.2 per cent to the GDP, at2004-05 prices.

During 2004-05 to 2009-10, the total investment in agricultureincreased in the range of 7.5% to 7.7% per annum.


4/12

Trend of Agriculture growth from2007-08 to 2010-11

Source: Central Statistical Organization

The Share in GDP has declinedrapidly in the recent past.

Overall GDP grew by an average of8.62%, during 2004-05 to 2010-11.

However, agriculture sector GDP hasincreased only by 3.46%.

This Shows industry and servicessectors GDP has grown more thanagriculture sector.

Threat of food securtiy rises as a share of

agriculture output declines as a % of GDP

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.515

15.5

16

16.5

17

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Years

%

tototalGDP

Percent to total GDP


5/12

Source: Central Statistical Organisation

Agriculture contribution helped India's GDP

to maintain its momentum

- 2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007- 08 2008- 09 2009- 10 2010- 11

Years

%G

rowth

Total Agriculture & allied Sector

In 2008-09, decline in growth of

agricultural GDP was primarily due tothe fall in the production ofagricultural crops such as oilseeds,cotton, jute and mesta, and sugarcane.

In 2009-10, despite experiencing the

worst south-west monsoon since 1972& subsequent significant fall in khariffood grain production, the growthmarginally recovered to 0.4% primarilydue to a good rabi crop.

Expecting a relatively good monsoonin 2010-11 the growth rate agriculturesector is expected to be 5.4% (AE).


6/12

Trend of Important crops output from

2007-08 to 2010-11Major Crops\Period 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Food Grains 230.78 234.47 218.2 232.07

Oil Seeds 29.76 27.72 24.93 27.85

Sugarcane 348.19 285.03 277.75 336.7

@ Productionin mn

balesof 170 kg each 25.88 22.28 23.94 33.93

(in mntonnes)


7/12

Food Grains: Production of food grains was consistent for the intial two

years however it has declined due to drought in 2009-10. However, it

picked up again due to normal monsoon.

Oil Seeds: Decline in oilseed production was due to decrease in production of

groundnut and castor seeds.

Cotton: Decrease in the area of cultivation of cotton in 2008-09 resulted in

decline in production of cotton when compared to 2007-08.

In 2009-10 production increased, due to increase in area, production and yield.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane has sharply declined due to decrease in

area, in year 2008-09 and it further declined in year 2009-10 due to Drought.


8/12

Measures taken by Government to improveAgriculture Output

Governmentof Indiahastakenseveral measuresto enhance theagriculture productionandtoincrease the income ofthe farmers:-

1. National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture2. Macro Management of Agriculture3. National Food Security Mission4. Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY)5. Integrated Scheme of Oil seeds, pulses oil palm and Maize

(ISOPOM)

Foralliedsectors:-

1. National Horticulture Mission2. Micro Irrigation3.National bamboo mission


9/12

Severalothercrucial measurestaken by the Governmentare asfollows:

1. Agricultural Credit

2. Agricultural Insurance

3. The National Agricultural Insurance Scheme

4. The pilot Modified NAIS

5. Weather based crop Insurance scheme

6. Agricultural Marketing

7. Seeds

8. Fertilizers

9. Production of urea, DAP complexes

10. Rainfall & Reservoir levels


10/12

Expected monsoon during 11-12 and its

Impact on Agriculture SectorQuantitatively, monsoon seasonrainfall is likely to be 98% of theLPA with a model error of 5%

Good rainfall would boost foodoutput in India and also helpgovernments throughout Asia tobattle food inflation.

A failed monsoon can force India

into the international markets as abuyer, as happened in 2009.

Monsoon forecasting in India iscarried out by government-runorganisations and has significantpolitical implications.

Source: India Meterorological Department

%

f L

r

i f

ll f

r t

try

l

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Y

r

%

fL

ri

v

r

!

% "

f L #$

r

i % f

ll f"

r t&

' " (

% try

)

&

"

l


11/12

Agriculture has a significant share in GDP and with about 60% of cropland dependent on monsoon.

Based on the assumption of a normal monsoon and crude oil pricesaveraging US$ 110 a barrel over 2011-12, the baseline projection of real GDPgrowth for 2011-12 is at 8%.

The growth is projected to be in the range of 7.4 per cent and 8.5 per cent

in 2011-12 with 90 per cent probability.

IMD forecast suggests normal monsoon this year. If this early predictionturns true and the distribution of monsoon rainfall across space and time invarious agro-climatic zone remains normal, the agriculture sector shouldwitness normal growth in 2011-12.


12/12

Outlook Raising farm productivity with adequate focus on rainfed areas.

Diversification of Indian agriculture from just crop farming to livestock,fisheries and poultry and horticulture while simultaneously addressingenvironmental concerns should be the focus for the agriculture sector.

Higher levels of investments are required for not only increasing farmproductivity but also creating adequate infrastructure for transport, storageand distribution of agricultural produce.

There has been substantial increase in the Minimum Support Price of

various crops over the last few years.

For 2011-12, expecting a normal monsoon as per IMD. The GDP growthrate for agriculture sector would be at 3.3% as per Professional ForecastersSurvey.

performance of indian agri sector

Documents