peering into economic conditions: a look at the nation ......a presentation at the 2020 economic...

A Presentation at the 2020 Economic Outlook

for West Michigan

Jim Robey, PhD

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

December 11, 2019

Peering Into Economic Conditions:Peering Into Economic Conditions:Peering Into Economic Conditions:Peering Into Economic Conditions:A Look at the Nation, the State, and A Look at the Nation, the State, and A Look at the Nation, the State, and A Look at the Nation, the State, and the Grand Rapids Region the Grand Rapids Region the Grand Rapids Region the Grand Rapids Region

12/11/2019

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

The Institute is an activity of the W.E. Upjohn Unemployment Trustee Corporation, which was established in 1932 to administer a fund set aside by Dr. W.E. Upjohn, founder of the Upjohn Company.

MISSION:

The W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan, independent research organization devoted to investigating the causes and effects of unemployment, to identifying feasible methods of insuring against unemployment, and to devising ways and means of alleviating the distress and hardship caused by unemployment.

2

National EconomyNational EconomyNational EconomyNational Economy

12/11/2019

We are currently in the longest expansion since WWII

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment

Survey4

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Employment Index during Economic ExpansionEmployment Index during Economic ExpansionEmployment Index during Economic ExpansionEmployment Index during Economic Expansion

1961-1969

(106 months)

1982-1990

(92 months)

2001-2007

(73 months)

1991-2001

(120 months)

2009-present

(125 months)

Month of Business Cycle Peak = 100

12/11/2019

We’re in the longest business cycle (contraction and expansion) and the longest expansion, while experiencing the longest recession since measurement began

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research 5

Length of:1945-1948

1949-1953

1954-1957

1958-1960

1961-1969

1970-1973

1975-1980

1980-1981

1982-1990

1991-2001

2002-2007 2007-?

Contraction 8 11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 8 18

Expansion 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 73 125

Business

Cycle 45 56 49 32 116 47 92 18 108 128 81 142

6

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average

December 2019December 2019December 2019December 2019

05/03

Unemployment rate

falls to lowest level in

50 years

09/24

Impeachment

inquiry

announced

10/11

Delay of

Chinese tariff

hike

10/13

Impeachment

depositions

begin

The stock market has reacted to various events this year,

and the ride is getting bumpier

January 2019January 2019January 2019January 2019

09/18

Fed

announces

second

round of

rate cuts

08/01

Fed

announces

first round

of rate cuts

09/01

Tariffs on

Chinese

goods go

into effect

08/23

China

announces

increased

tariffs on

U.S.

imports

06/01

China

increases

tariffs on

U.S. goods

01/25

Government

shutdown ends

04/05

Strong jobs

numbers

released

Unemploym

ent Rate %

Source: Yahoo Finance & Bureau of Labor Statistics

12/11/2019

GDP growth is projected to remain solid, although employment growth is slowing


Survey, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Federal

Reserve Consensus Forecast

7

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Employm

ent Change (000s)

GDP Change (% chg)

Gross Domestic Product and Employment ChangeGross Domestic Product and Employment ChangeGross Domestic Product and Employment ChangeGross Domestic Product and Employment Change

GDP Change (L) GDP Annual Avg. (L) Employment Change (R)

Forecast

12/11/2019

University of Michigan RSQE national forecast

8

2019 2019 2019 2019

(Forecast)(Forecast)(Forecast)(Forecast)

2020202020202020


2021202120212021


GDP 2.3% 1.7% 1.7%

Employment 1.6% 1.3% 1.1%

Light Vehicle Sales

(Millions)17.0 16.8 16.7

Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%

Housing Starts (Millions) 1.25 1.26 1.28

CPI/Inflation 1.7% 1.7% 2.0%

12/11/2019

High and stable consumer confidence

Source: Conference Board and University of Michigan 9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Index: 1985 = 100

Consumer ConfidenceConsumer ConfidenceConsumer ConfidenceConsumer Confidence

Index of Consumer Confidence (CB) Index of Consumer Sentiment (UofM)

Index: 1966 = 100

Index of Consumer Confidence

Index of Consumer Sentiment

12/11/2019

Moody’s predictions of a recession are relatively low and decreasing: 9% in October

Source: Moody’s Analytics 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Likelihood of Recession (%)

Likelihood of Being in a Recession in the Next 6 MonthsLikelihood of Being in a Recession in the Next 6 MonthsLikelihood of Being in a Recession in the Next 6 MonthsLikelihood of Being in a Recession in the Next 6 Months

11

With tax cuts and 2018 fiscal stimulus overhang,

federal debt and deficits continue to climb

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Federal Debt held by the Public

(As a percent of GDP)

Federal Deficit ($000,000,000,000)

Federal Deficit and DebtFederal Deficit and DebtFederal Deficit and DebtFederal Deficit and Debt

Deficit Deficit (projected) Debt Debt (projected)

Source: Office of Management and Budget

12/11/2019

Inflation and interest rates have increased in the past 2 years

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York Federal

Reserve12

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Percent (%)

Interest Rates and 12Interest Rates and 12Interest Rates and 12Interest Rates and 12----Month Inflation ChangeMonth Inflation ChangeMonth Inflation ChangeMonth Inflation Change

3-month T-Bill 10-year T-Bill CPI-U 12-month change

The Next Recession: The Next Recession: The Next Recession: The Next Recession: What We’re WatchingWhat We’re WatchingWhat We’re WatchingWhat We’re Watching

12/11/2019 14

What keeps economists up at night worrying about a recession?

• Trade wars (tariffs and taxes are the same—a cost to consumers)

• Volatility of stock market

• Low interest rates

• Federal debt and deficits

• Tax cuts

• Politics

“Expansions don’t

get tired; rather,

they end due to

policy mistakes.”

MichiganMichiganMichiganMichigan

16

Michigan continues to outperform expectations

Construct.

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Retail

Transport. and util.

Info.

FinanceProf. and business

Educational srv.Health care

Leisure and hospitality

Other services

Government

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Employm

ent Change (000s)

Michigan Employment Change, Q3 2018 to Q3 2019

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

12/11/2019

Light vehicle sales have been steady

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Annual Rate of Sales (in 000,000s)

Annualized Rate of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (in millions)Annualized Rate of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (in millions)Annualized Rate of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (in millions)Annualized Rate of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (in millions)

16.9 (2013 to 2019 Average)16.8 (2000 to 2007 Average)

12/11/2019

University of Michigan RSQE statewide forecast

18

2019 2019 2019 2019


2020202020202020


2021202120212021


Employment Change 23,300 (.99%) 29,000 (.64%) 25,900 (.42%)

Manufacturing

Employment Change

(Workers)

2,100 (.33%) 2,000 (.32%) 1,600 (.25%)

Unemployment Rate 4.1% 3.9% 3.7%

Labor Force Participation

Rate61.9% 61.7% 61.7%

19

Michigan exports in 2018: USMCA matters!

IndustryIndustryIndustryIndustry TotalTotalTotalTotal ChinaChinaChinaChina CanadaCanadaCanadaCanada MexicoMexicoMexicoMexico EUEUEUEU

TOTAL $58,034,773,175 6.1% 41.8%41.8%41.8%41.8% 21.2% 12.5%

Transportation

equipment$28,174,245,233 6.5% 52.5%52.5%52.5%52.5% 15.7% 8.5%

Chemicals $5,277,878,144 7.7% 14.1% 22.1% 26.5%26.5%26.5%26.5%

Machinery $4,902,788,438 5.5% 27.9% 35.6%35.6%35.6%35.6% 15.6%

Computer and electronic $3,064,025,650 6.3% 19.1% 27.3%27.3%27.3%27.3% 14.7%

Electrical equipment $2,453,426,141 5.8% 25.0% 41.2%41.2%41.2%41.2% 11.0%

Primary metals $2,389,388,016 2.3% 47.5%47.5%47.5%47.5% 14.6% 10.7%

Fabricated metals $2,382,272,594 6.1% 28.1% 40.9%40.9%40.9%40.9% 11.8%

Source: International Trade Administration

20

Exposure on the agricultural side

IllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinois IndianaIndianaIndianaIndiana MichiganMichiganMichiganMichigan OhioOhioOhioOhio WisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsin

Soy bean farms 36,393 22,174 11,961 25,595 18,296

Soy bean sales $5,668,028 $3,024,384 $998,608 $2,333,805 $938,273

Agricultural products to China

(% change 2017-2018)

$163,752

(-88.7%)

$209

(-99.2%)

$109

(-46.6%)

$157,678

(-74.3%)

$18,952

(-12.6%)

Other animal products to Canada

(% change 2017-2018)

$2,713

(-48.1%)

$7,703

(-1.9%)

$8,297

(-8.1%)

$47,732

(+43.0%)

$103,047

(+40.0%)

Food manufacturing to Canada

(% change 2017-2018)

$1,254,712

(-1.2%)

$347,206

(+1.7%)

$405,388

(-3.1%)

$732,669

(+6.5%)

$938,941

(-6.0%)

Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture, International Trade Administration

Dollars in ‘000s

Regional Conditions: Regional Conditions: Regional Conditions: Regional Conditions: The Right PlaceThe Right PlaceThe Right PlaceThe Right Place

22

The Grand Rapids-

Wyoming

Metropolitan

Statistical Area

• Barry County

• Kent County

• Montcalm County

• Ottawa County

Source: Basemap

12/11/2019

The current unemployment rate is 3.0%, with 17,746 persons looking for work

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Percent of Labor Force

Unemployment Rate for Grand Rapids, MSAUnemployment Rate for Grand Rapids, MSAUnemployment Rate for Grand Rapids, MSAUnemployment Rate for Grand Rapids, MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment

Statistics23

12/11/2019

Unemployment rates are between 2.3% and 4.7% for counties in West Michigan

The MSA is at full employment

Michigan’s rate is 4.1% (October 2019)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau 24

12/11/2019

Labor force participation rates are more varied

While Montcalm struggles, the rest of the MSA is doing well

Michigan’s rate is 61.8% (October 2019)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau 25

12/11/2019 Source: Federal Housing Finance Administration 26

Housing values continue to rise.

But the pace continues to decelerate nationally

12/11/2019

Grand Rapids continues to outpace the state and nation in employment growth

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Index (2007 = 100)

Nonfarm Employment Index (2007 = 100)Nonfarm Employment Index (2007 = 100)Nonfarm Employment Index (2007 = 100)Nonfarm Employment Index (2007 = 100)

Grand Rapids, MSA Michigan United States


Statistics and Upjohn Institute27

12/11/2019

Grand Rapids recovered faster than the state or nation, although growth appears to be slowing



60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Index (2007 = 100)

Manufacturing Employment Index (2007 = 100)Manufacturing Employment Index (2007 = 100)Manufacturing Employment Index (2007 = 100)Manufacturing Employment Index (2007 = 100)


12/11/2019

Grand Rapids exceeds both the state and nation, although employment growth is leveling off



85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Index (2007 = 100)

Private Services Providing Employment Index (2007 = 100)Private Services Providing Employment Index (2007 = 100)Private Services Providing Employment Index (2007 = 100)Private Services Providing Employment Index (2007 = 100)


12/11/2019

The total labor force in Grand Rapids continues to grow

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment

Statistics30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Employed Unemployed

Total Labor Force: Grand RapidsTotal Labor Force: Grand RapidsTotal Labor Force: Grand RapidsTotal Labor Force: Grand Rapids----Wyoming Metro AreaWyoming Metro AreaWyoming Metro AreaWyoming Metro Area

Total Labor Force

(in thousands)

12/11/201912/11/2019

National PMI stood at 48.1 in November, indicating the manufacturing sector may be contracting

31

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Index

Purchasing Managers IndexPurchasing Managers IndexPurchasing Managers IndexPurchasing Managers Index

Readings below

50 indicate sector

is contracting

Source: Institute for Supply Management

12/11/2019

The recent trend is plunging downward – 36.3 in October (although the GM strike may have impacted this number)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Index

Purchasing Managers Index Purchasing Managers Index Purchasing Managers Index Purchasing Managers Index –––– Grand RapidsGrand RapidsGrand RapidsGrand Rapids

Purchasing Managers Index 12-Month Moving Average

Source: Institute for Supply Management & Upjohn Institute 32

Readings below

50 indicate sector

is contracting

12/11/2019

A stable index with positive regional employment growth

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Furniture Emp. Index (2011 = 100)

MADA Index

Furniture Index and EmploymentFurniture Index and EmploymentFurniture Index and EmploymentFurniture Index and Employment

MADA Index Employment Index

Source: Michael A. Dunlap and Associates and Bureau of

Labor Statistics33

How is the Grand Rapids How is the Grand Rapids How is the Grand Rapids How is the Grand Rapids region doing compared to peer region doing compared to peer region doing compared to peer region doing compared to peer regions?regions?regions?regions?

35

Comparison areas: Economically comparable and/or

aspirational

Metropolitan Statistical Areas:

• Boise, ID

• Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

• Cleveland-Elyria, OH

• Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC Metro Area

• Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Metro Area

• Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area

• Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Metro Area

• Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area

• Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN Metro Area

• Salt Lake City, UT

• Tulsa, OK

• Wichita, KS

36

The Grand Rapids MSA posted one of the lower

unemployment rates of the group

2.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.3

3.63.73.8

4.53.3

2.9

0 1 2 3 4 5

Nashville, TNBoise, ID

Salt Lake City, UTGreenville, SC

Minneapolis, MNIndianapolis, INMilwaukee, WI

Tulsa, OKWichita, KS

Cincinnati, OHLouisville, KYCleveland, OH

Comparison averageGrand Rapids

Percent of Labor Force

Average Unemployment Rate, JanAverage Unemployment Rate, JanAverage Unemployment Rate, JanAverage Unemployment Rate, Jan----Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

37

Grand Rapids ranked in the middle in employment

growth

-0.3-0.1

0.00.60.70.70.8

1.92.42.5

3.33.9

1.41.2

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

Tulsa, OKMilwaukee, WICleveland, OH

Indianapolis, INLouisville, KY

Minneapolis, MNWichita, KS

Salt Lake City, UTGreenville, SCCincinnati, OH

Boise, IDNashville, TN


Employment Percent Change

Total Employment Change JanTotal Employment Change JanTotal Employment Change JanTotal Employment Change Jan----Oct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to Jan----Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics

38

Manufacturing employment change at the

comparison group average

-1.2-0.6

0.00.1

0.60.8

1.62.42.42.4

2.84.2

1.31.3

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Greenville, SCNashville, TNCleveland, OHMilwaukee, WI

Tulsa, OKMinneapolis, MN

Louisville, KYSalt Lake City, UTIndianapolis, INCincinnati, OHWichita, KSBoise, ID



Manufacturing Employment Change JanManufacturing Employment Change JanManufacturing Employment Change JanManufacturing Employment Change Jan----Oct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to Jan----Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019


39

Services grew slower than the average of the

comparison group

-0.3-0.1

0.50.8

0.91.01.0

1.61.9

2.42.7

3.41.3

0.7

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Minneapolis, MNTulsa, OK

Indianapolis, INLouisville, KYMilwaukee, WI

Wichita, KSCleveland, OHGreenville, SCCincinnati, OH

Salt Lake City, UTNashville, TN

Boise, IDComparison average

Grand Rapids


Services Employment Change JanServices Employment Change JanServices Employment Change JanServices Employment Change Jan----Oct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to JanOct 2018 to Jan----Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019Oct 2019


40

The indicator for entrepreneurship shows the area at

the top of the comparison group

14.515.515.816.516.5

17.517.617.718.3

19.521.5

24.017.9

23.1

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

Salt Lake City, UTIndianapolis, INLouisville, KYMilwaukee, WI

Wichita, KSCincinnati, OH

Minneapolis, MNNashville, TNCleveland, OH

Tulsa, OKBoise, ID

Greenville, SCComparison average

Grand Rapids

Percent of Industry

Percent SelfPercent SelfPercent SelfPercent Self----Employed in Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesEmployed in Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesEmployed in Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesEmployed in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey

41

The area ranks in the middle for college-educated

emerging workers within the comparison group

27.233.234.134.2

36.937.137.939.640.540.8

43.348.9

34.938.8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Tulsa, OKBoise, ID

Wichita, KSLouisville, KYCleveland, OH

Salt Lake City, UTGreenville, SCCincinnati, OHNashville, TN

Indianapolis, INMilwaukee, WI

Minneapolis, MNComparison Average

Grand Rapids, MI

Percent of Age Group

Bachelor's Degree or Higher, Age 25Bachelor's Degree or Higher, Age 25Bachelor's Degree or Higher, Age 25Bachelor's Degree or Higher, Age 25----34343434

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey

42

Housing prices are rising at the rate near the average

for the group

100

150

200

250

300

350

Index (1995 = 100)

Housing Price Index (1995=100)Housing Price Index (1995=100)Housing Price Index (1995=100)Housing Price Index (1995=100)

Greenville, SC Louisville, KY Tulsa, OK Minneapolis, MN Milwaukee, WI

Cincinnati, OH Boise, ID Nashville, TN Cleveland, OH Salt Lake City, UT

Wichita, KS Indianapolis, IN Grand Rapids

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

How did we do last year?How did we do last year?How did we do last year?How did we do last year?

44

Review of last year’s forecast

0.96 1.0

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Total Goods producing Service providing Government

Percent change in employm

ent

Annual Percent Change in Employment Annual Percent Change in Employment Annual Percent Change in Employment Annual Percent Change in Employment

Current estimate Forecasted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics & Upjohn

Institute

45


1.0

1.8

0.4

2.5

1.0

0.4

1.3

0.8

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00


Percent change in employm

ent



Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics & Upjohn

Institute

46


2.0

2.7

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50


Percent change in GRP

Annual Percent Change in GRPAnnual Percent Change in GRPAnnual Percent Change in GRPAnnual Percent Change in GRP


Source: Upjohn Institute & REMI

47


2.0

1.3

2.4

1.6

2.7

2.4

2.9

1.9

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50


Percent change in GRP

Annual Percent Change in GRPAnnual Percent Change in GRPAnnual Percent Change in GRPAnnual Percent Change in GRP


Source: Upjohn Institute & REMI

48

Our View of 2020 & 2021

49

REMI Grand Rapids MSA 2019–2020 employment

forecast

1.0

1.8

0.4

2.5

0.7

-0.7

1.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.9

0.2

-0.3

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Percent Change in Employm

ent


2019 2020 2021

Source: Upjohn Institute, REMI, and Bureau of Labor

Statistics

50

REMI Grand Rapids MSA 2019–2020 employment

forecast

5,433

2,623

1,6561,156

4,114

-713

4,795

34

-464-984

646

-125

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Total Change in Employm

ent

Total Change in Employment Total Change in Employment Total Change in Employment Total Change in Employment

2019 2020 2021

Source: Upjohn Institute, REMI, and Bureau of Labor

Statistics

51

Grand Rapids MSA, state, & national 2020

employment forecast

0.7

-0.7

1.1

0.1

0.5

-0.9

1.0

-0.4

0.9

-0.3

1.2

0.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


Percent Change in Employm

ent

Annual Percent Change in EmploymentAnnual Percent Change in EmploymentAnnual Percent Change in EmploymentAnnual Percent Change in Employment

Grand Rapids Michigan United States

Source: Upjohn Institute and REMI

52

REMI Grand Rapids MSA 2019–2020 GRP forecast

2.0

1.3

2.4

1.61.8

1.1

2.2

0.6

1.4

1.1

1.7

0.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Percent Change in GRP

AnnualAnnualAnnualAnnual PercentPercentPercentPercent ChangeChangeChangeChange inininin GRPGRPGRPGRP

2019 2020 2021


53

REMI Grand Rapids MSA 2019–2020 GRP forecast

0.97

0.16

0.77

0.05

0.87

0.13

0.72

0.02

0.71

0.13

0.56

0.02

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


Change in GRP (billions of dollars)

Total ChangeTotal ChangeTotal ChangeTotal Change inininin GRPGRPGRPGRP

2019 2020 2021


54

Grand Rapids MSA, state, & national 2020 GRP

forecast

1.8

1.1

2.2

0.6

1.5

0.9

2.0

0.2

1.9

1.6

2.2

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Percent Change in GRP

Annual Percent Change in GRP Annual Percent Change in GRP Annual Percent Change in GRP Annual Percent Change in GRP

Grand Rapids Michigan United States


5512/11/2019

Questions?

• Jim Robey, PhD

– Email: [email protected]

– Phone: 269-343-5541

• Contributors

– Kathleen Bolter, PhD, Regional Research Analyst

– Gerrit Anderson, Mapping and Data Visualization Specialist

– Emily Boyle, Project Coordinator / Copy Editor

– Zachary Ray, Regional Intern

55

peering into economic conditions: a look at the nation ......a presentation at the 2020 economic...

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