patrick j. kelly presented to the nces/sheeo network conference april 12, 2005 national center for...

Patrick J. Kelly

Presented to the

NCES/SHEEO Network Conference

April 12, 2005

National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsP.O. Box 9752 Boulder, Colorado 80301-9752 (303) 497-0301

As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact

of Higher Education Inequality in the States

2

Why this Report? Why Now?A Collision of Several Trends• Increasing value of a college degree

• Increasing gaps between Whites and minorities in educational

attainment

• Shifting demographics – the least-educated populations are

growing at the highest rates

• Inability of state systems of higher education to serve and

retain minorities at nearly the rates of Whites

• The emergence of a global economy – the U.S. is falling

behind other countries in educational attainment

• All at a time when many state policymakers are increasingly

concerned about the development of human capital

3

Topics Included in the Presentation

1. The Changing Demography

The Nation

Illustrative States

2. Differences in Education Attainment and Economic

Benefits Between the Race/Ethnic Populations

3. Projected Implications if Efforts to Level the

Playing Field Aren’t Successful

4

Shares of U.S. Population Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity

from 1980 to 2020

*Based on 1990 Census

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census) and

U.S. Population Projections (Based on 2000 Census)

62.5

13.2

17.4

72.1

81.9

10.211.6

5.711.4

0.6 0.7 0.81.7

4.1 6.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Per

cent

White

African-American

Hispanic/Latino

Native American/AK Native*

Asian/Pacific Islander

Actual Projected

5

Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and

Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020 (in Millions)

Note: Projections based on 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

-1.83-0.88

7.12

12.40

1.110.42

2.03

3.69

2.29

6.50

1.87

5.49

7.32

2.97

1.200.33

1.41

2.791.57

-6.59

-10

-5

0

5

10

15 White African-American Hispanic/Latino Asian/Pacific Islander

Ages 0-17 Ages 18-24 Ages 65+Ages 45-64Ages 25-44

90% of Hispanic/Latino Population

Cities with Populations over 250,000

* Counties that Comprise 90% of all Hispanics/Latinos. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Counties Where the Majority of Hispanics/Latinos Reside* and Cities with Total Populations over 250,000

90% of African-American Population

Cities with Populations over 250,000

Counties Where the Majority of African-Americans Reside* and Cities with Total Populations Over 250,000

* Counties that Comprise 90% of all African-Americans. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

8

Trends in Educational Attainment of U.S. Population Relative to the

Most Educated Countries

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Pe

rce

nt

Canada Finland Japan Korea Norway Sweden United States

Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher

9

Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree

or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000

Note: Data not available for 1980.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2000

Pe

rce

nt

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

White African-American Hispanic/LatinoNative American/

AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

10

Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1990 2000

Pe

rce

nt



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

11

Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree


Note: Data not available for 1980.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2000

Pe

rce

nt



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

12

Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-34 with a Bachelor’s Degree


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1990 2000

Pe

rce

nt



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

13

Educational Attainment of U.S. Young Workforce (Age 25-34)

Indexed to the Most Educated Country, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for

Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

0.9

0.8

1.00.9

0.4 0.4

0.5 0.5

0.3 0.30.4 0.4

0.3 0.30.3

0.4

1.6

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Bachelor's Degree or Higher All College Degrees (Associate or Higher)



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

U.S. Index = 0.86 U.S. Index = 0.77

NORWAY CANADA

14

Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education,

2002 (Percent)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics

63

69 6770

7471

14 13 14 12 119 10

1612

10 11 106 7

1 1 1 1 1 1 14 5 6 7 5 6 6

68

0

20

40

60

80

18-Year-Olds High SchoolGraduates

First-TimeFreshmen

All OtherUndergraduates

AssociateDegreesAwarded

Bachelor'sDegreesAwarded

All Credentialsand Degrees

Awarded

Pe

rce

nt

White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander

15

Percent of Degree-Seeking First-Time Full-Time Freshmen

Graduating Within 150% of Program Time by Race/Ethnicity, 2002

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey 2002

57.1

30.7

38.1

23.0

44.7

26.6

37.0

24.9

62.7

30.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Six-Year Graduation Rate of Bachelor's Students

Three-Year Graduation Rate ofAssociate Students

Per

cent


16

Mean Earnings by Degree Level Using the

Consumer Price Index (Adjusted to 2001 $)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Less than High School

High School Diploma

Some College/Associate Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Graduate/Professional Degree

17

Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of

Population Age 25-64 Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)

37,448

45,199

46,166

67,495

92,751

24,285

29,387

31,986

41,767

52,805

28,579

33,858

36,730

46,901

64,641

22,952

26,742

29,918

37,656

49,083

28,664

35,191

38,811

48,932

67,338

21,149

25,798

28,995

35,822

45,160

28,350

33,426

34,654

47,027

59,586

20,612

24,057

26,121

34,113

46,570

30,217

36,282

39,386

54,245

81,433

23,309

28,908

32,475

41,009

55,727

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

18

Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of

Population Age 25-34 Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999


30,838

35,028

36,690

49,469

60,308

20,875

24,478

27,204

35,911

42,423

24,021

28,583

31,472

39,264

48,623

19,331

22,666

25,657

32,578

39,742

25,075

30,094

32,536

39,897

45,653

18,563

22,708

25,275

32,185

36,694

23,884

28,031

28,499

38,445

47,728

17,003

19,353

22,538

28,484

35,697

26,031

31,120

33,599

46,642

60,282

20,673

26,099

27,391

37,759

46,766

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

19

Difference in Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a

College Degree—Population Age 25-64 Working 35 or More

Hours Per Week, 1999

7,432

24,681

6,903

15,790

8,434

17,156

4,961

15,341

9,056

21,054

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Annual Earnings from High School toAssociate Degree

Annual Earnings from High School toBachelor's Degree

WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/LatinoNative American/AK NativeAsian/Pacific Islander


20

California

21

Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree

or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country—

California



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

U.S. Index = 0.77

CANADA

22

154,132

3,682,247

-3,225

1,713,553

-107,303

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

White African-American

Hispanic/Latino NativeAmerican/AK

Native

Asian/PacificIslander

Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 by

Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—California

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000

23

Projected Number Change in Adults Age 25-64 by

Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—California

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

2,119,259

876,522777,868

271,012

629,474

289,478

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.

24

Distribution of Educational Attainment for Population Age 25-64,

2000 and Projected 2020, California


16.1

18.5

27.8 27.3

22.3 21.7

7.2 7.0

17.1 16.4

9.4 9.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Pe

rce

nt

2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020


25

Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of

Education, 2002—California (Percent)


39

4345 46

49 49

7 7 8 8 75 6

40

34

2725 26

1719

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

11

15

19 1916

23

18

42

0

10

20

30

40

50


First-TimeFreshmen





Awarded

Pe

rce

nt


26

Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income

from 2000 to 2020—California


22,728

20,25221,591 21,196

28,86927,813

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

2000 2020

California U.S. Average Top State

27

South Carolina

28

Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree

or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country—

South Carolina



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4



AK NativeAsian/

Pacific Islander

U.S. Index = 0.77

CANADA

29

104,167

31,372

848

12,484

130,228

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

White African-American

Hispanic/Latino NativeAmerican/AK

Native

Asian/PacificIslander

Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 by

Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina


30

Projected Number Change in Adults Age 25-64 by

Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina


62,710

80,782

51,119

18,701

33,931

17,740

0

30,000

60,000

90,000


31

Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of

Education, 2002—South Carolina (Percent)


59 60

6671

7572

3638

30 2926

21 23

31 1 1 1 1 10 0 1 0 1 0 01 1 1 1 1 1 1

66

0

20

40

60

80


First-TimeFreshmen





Awarded

Pe

rce

nt


32

Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income

from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina


18,784 19,342

21,591 21,196

28,86927,813

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

2000 2020

South Carolina U.S. Average Top State

33

Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest

Racial/Ethnic Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64

with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2000)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census

28.8

28.6

26.4

24.7

24.2

24.2

23.7

23.7

23.4

23.1 21.9

21.6 20.5

20.3 19.7

19.4 18.6

18.6

18.5 17.9

17.5

17.4

17.1

16.9 15.6

15.5 14.8

14.6

14.2

13.7

13.5

13.4

13.2 12.5

12.3

12.2

12.0 11.4

11.2

11.0

10.9 10.2 9.2

9.1 8.5

8.4

8.3 7.9 7.0

4.7 4.0

0

10

20

30

ColoradoCaliforniaConnecticutNew M

exicoNew JerseyM

assachusettsNew YorkAlaskaTexasRhode IslandArizonaKansasNebraskaW

ashingtonUtahVirginiaM

ontanaNorth DakotaO

regonVerm

ontIdahoSouth DakotaIllinoisM

arylandSouth CarolinaNevadaW

isconsinUnited StatesDelawarePennsylvaniaG

eorgiaW

yoming

North CarolinaM

innesotaLouisianaIowaM

issouriM

ichiganO

hioAlabam

aM

ississippiHawaiiIndianaO

klahoma

FloridaTennesseeArkansasKentuckyNew Ham

pshireW

est VirginiaM

aine

34

Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest Racial/Ethnic

Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associate

Degree or Higher, 200033.3 32.3

30.1 29.0 28.3

27.9 27.1

27.1

26.7

26.7

26.4

26.1 24.9

24.7

24.4 22.8

22.6

20.7

20.5

18.8

18.3

18.2

18.1

17.9

17.8

17.8

17.4

17.1 15.9

15.8 15.1

15.0

14.8

14.7 13.7

13.4

13.3

13.1 11.6

11.6 10.7

10.5

10.4 9.4 9.0 8.6

8.5 8.1 7.7

5.1 4.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CaliforniaColoradoConnecticutAlaskaM

assachusettsNew YorkNew M

exicoRhode IslandNew JerseyNebraskaTexasArizonaW

ashingtonKansasUtahO

regonIdahoNevadaVirginiaSouth DakotaW

isconsinSouth CarolinaW

yoming

IowaM

arylandIllinoisDelawareNorth DakotaUnited StatesNorth CarolinaVerm

ontM

ontanaPennsylvaniaM

innesotaG

eorgiaLouisianaM

ichiganM

ississippiM

issouriO

hioAlabam

aFloridaIndianaHawaiiArkansasTennesseeNew Ham

pshireO

klahoma

KentuckyW

est VirginiaM

aine

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census

35

Projected Change* in Percent of Population Age 25-64

with Less than a High School Diploma, 2000-20

*Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age 25-64 by race/ethnicity.

Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections

4.8 4.6

3.6 3.3

2.5 2.4 2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1 2.0

2.0 1.9

1.9

1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3

1.3 1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2 1.1

1.1

1.1 1.0 0.9

0.9 0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8 0.7

0.7 0.6 0.5

0.5

0.5 0.4

0.4 0.3

0.3

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0

-0.5

-1.2

-5.8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

NevadaCaliforniaArizonaTexasColoradoIllinoisM

assachusettsNew YorkNew M

exicoUnited StatesRhode IslandO

regonConnecticutIdahoNew JerseyKansasW

ashingtonFloridaUtahM

innesotaDelawareNebraskaW

isconsinO

klahoma

AlaskaM

arylandG

eorgiaVirginiaArkansasLouisianaPennsylvaniaNorth CarolinaW

yoming

IowaHawaiiM

ississippiSouth DakotaIndianaM

ichiganSouth CarolinaM

ontanaAlabam

aO

hioM

issouriTennesseeNew Ham

pshireKentuckyW

est VirginiaVerm

ontM

aineNorth Dakota

36

Projected Change* in Percent of Population Age 25-64

with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000-20

*Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age 25-64 by race/ethnicity.

Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections

1.80

0.96

0.30

0.24 0.02

0.00

-0.02

-0.06

-0.14

-0.14

-0.16

-0.20

-0.27

-0.29

-0.33

-0.35

-0.39

-0.40

-0.45

-0.48

-0.51

-0.53

-0.56

-0.57

-0.64

-0.65

-0.65

-0.66

-0.74

-0.75

-0.76

-0.79

-0.79

-0.83

-0.84

-0.87

-1.00

-1.10

-1.11

-1.16

-1.29

-1.31

-1.45 -1.66

-2.19

-2.21

-2.22 -2.42 -2.57 -2.75

-0.01

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

North DakotaHawaiiM

aineNew Ham

pshireW

est VirginiaKentucky

Michigan

Vermont

Ohio

Missouri

IowaTennessee

Alabama

PennsylvaniaSouth Carolina

AlaskaM

ontanaSouth Dakota

IndianaM

ississippiNorth Carolina

ArkansasW

isconsinLouisiana

Oklahom

aW

yoming

Minnesota

New JerseyVirginia

Maryland

WashingtonNebraska

FloridaO

regonUtah

GeorgiaIdaho

United StatesKansas

DelawareIllinois

Massachusetts

New YorkRhode Island

ConnecticutTexas

ColoradoNevadaArizona

CaliforniaNew M

exico

37

Projected Change* in Personal Income Per Capita,

2000-20 (In 2000 $)

*Projected change in personal income is based on the annual personal income by age group (15 years and older) and race/ethnicity in 2000 and the population projections by age group and race/ethnicity in 2020.

Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 population projections

845

817

794 665

660

645

634

612

557

533

522

517

489

456

438

403

367

345 247

221

196

178

172

126

100 79 68 68 67 60 29 0

-21 -65 -144

-158 -265 -395

-400 -530 -662 -845 -956

-1051

-1056

-1103

-1137

-1182

-2189-2475

-5

-$3,000

-$2,000

-$1,000

$0

$1,000

UtahVerm

ontArkansasM

aineNew Ham

pshireW

est VirginiaKentuckyM

ississippiSouth CarolinaAlabam

aIdahoDelawareNorth CarolinaTennesseeSouth DakotaM

issouriM

ontanaIndianaIowaNevadaO

hioW

isconsinM

ichiganNebraskaKansasM

innesotaO

klahoma

Georgia

VirginiaFloridaW

yoming

PennsylvaniaNorth Dakota

Oregon

WashingtonLouisiana

New Mexico

ArizonaUnited States

MarylandIllinois

ColoradoRhode Island

TexasNew JerseyConnecticut

HawaiiM

assachusettsNew York

AlaskaCalifornia

38

Personal Income Per Capita Relative to State Total

Taxable Resources Per Capita

Tot

al P

erso

nal I

ncom

e P

er

Cap

ita,

2002

Tax Capacity – Total Taxable Resources Per Capita, 2002

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CACO

CT

DE

GA

HI

IL

INIAKS

KY LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VAWA

WIUS

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

WV

WY

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000

R2 = 0.932

39

What Can We Do About It?

1. Race-Based Admissions Aren’t Very Possible

2. Accountability Measures

3. Incentives for Institutions to Enroll and Retain More

Minorities

4. Others?

40

A full report and state profiles can

be accessed at:

www.higheredinfo.org

patrick j. kelly presented to the nces/sheeo network conference april 12, 2005 national center for...

Documents

census bureau

census organisation

population age

public use microdata

population projections

population relative

associate degree

educational attainment