overview of macedonia’s · 2017-04-24 · • april 8th, 1993, macedonia became the 181st member...
TRANSCRIPT
Overview of Macedonia’s
Economy
U.S. Embassy Skopje
Important events
• September 8th, 1991, a referendum on sovereignty and
independence
• November 17th, 1991, Constitution was adopted
• April 26th, 1992, monetary independence and introduction of
new national currency - Denar
• April 8th, 1993, Macedonia became the 181st member of the
UN
• April 1993, Macedonia became a member of the World Bank
and the IMF
• April 4th, 2003, Macedonia became a member of the WTO
• November 2005, Macedonia became candidate country for
membership in the EU
Demography
• Total area: 25,713 square km
• Total population: 2.0 million
• Growth rate: 0.4%
• Rural: 40.2%
• Urban: 59.8%
Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia
Ethnic composition
Source: Census 2002, State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia
64.18%
2.36%
25.17%
2.66%1.78%
3.85%
Macedonians
Albanians
Turks
Roma
Serbs
Others
Gross Domestic Product (in %)
2005 4.7% 2006 5.1% 2007 6.5% 2008 5.5% 2009 -0.4% 2010 3.4% 2011 2.3% 2012 -0.5% 2013 2.9% 2014 3.6% 2015 3.8% 2016 2.4%
2017 3.0% (projection)
Kosovo crisis
Ethnic conflict
Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia
World economic crisis
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
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2017
*
GDP per capita (in US$)
2005 3,080 2006 3,380 2007 4,100 2008 4,864 2009 4,599 2010 4,581 2011 5,096 2012 4,726 2013 5,233 2014 5,486 2015 4,850 2016 5,256
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Macedonia
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
20
00
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Main components
of GDP in 2016 Trade (wholesale and retail)
Mining, quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply
Construction
Public administration and defense, compulsory social security, education, health and social work
Real estate activities
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Professional, scientific, technical activities, administrative services
Arts, entertainment and recreation, other services
13.2
10.3
12.9
7.7
16.7
4.2
6.2
Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia
11.4
3.9
2.8
7.7%
13.2%
12.9%
16.7% 6.2%
4.2%
10.3%
3.9% 11.4%
2.8%
Inflation (average rate = period / last year’s period)
* projected
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
I.201
6 II III
IV V VI
VII
VII
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IX X XI
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I.201
7 II III
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17*
Industrial output (average rate = period / last year’s period)
Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
I.201
6 II III
IV V VI
VII
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7 II
Industrial output by branches (% change)
Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia
StructureI - II '17
I - II '16
I - II '17
I - II '16
Total 100.00 98.1 -1.9
Manufacturing 82.94 95.9 -4.1
Production of basic metals 2.59 74.8 -25.2
Food production 11.48 94.9 -5.1
Production of wearing apparel 9.60 77.9 -22.1
Production of other non-metallic minerals 6.29 109.0 9.0
Tobacco industry 2.67 77.7 -22.3
Beverages production 4.45 85.5 -14.5
Production of coke and refined petroleum products 1.28 116.2 16.2
Production of electrical equipment 4.88 98.6 -1.4
Production of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 0.70 170.2 70.2
Production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations 2.79 99.1 -0.9
Production of chemicals and chemical products 2.95 129.3 29.3
Production of rubber products and plastics 5.40 100.7 0.7
Production of leather and other leather products 1.16 71.9 -28.1
Textile industry 3.02 82.8 -17.2
Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply 7.92 119.5 19.5
Mining and quarrying 9.14 94.0 -6.0
Foreign trade
(in million US$)
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
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Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Exports Imports
Foreign trade (% change = period / last year’s period)
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
I.201
6 II III
IV V VI
VII
VII
I
IX X XI
20
16
I.201
7 II
Exports Imports
Trade balance
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
-31
-28
-25
-22
-19
-16
-13
-10
-7
-4
-1
2
-3,250
-3,000
-2,750
-2,500
-2,250
-2,000
-1,750
-1,500
-1,250
-1,000
-750
-500
-250
020
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
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Ja
n-1
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Feb
-17
in million US$ (left scale)
Trade balance as % of GDP (right scale)
Top trading partners
(at the end of February 2017, in percent of total)
• Exports
1. Germany = 50.0%
2. Bulgaria = 5.5%
3. Serbia = 3.8%
4. Belgium = 3.7%
5. Greece = 3.5%
6. Italy = 3.2%
7. Romania = 3.2%
• Imports
1. Germany = 11.6%
2. UK = 10.6%
3. Greece = 7.7%
4. China = 6.6%
5. Serbia = 6.3%
6. Italy = 5.1%
7. Turkey = 4.3%
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
Trade with the USA (on cumulative basis, in million US$)
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
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20
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20
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I.201
7
II.2
017
Exports Imports
Current account balance
projected
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
-1300
-1200
-1100
-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
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98
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99
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20
01
20
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Cummulative (in million US$) as % of GDP
Foreign Direct Investment (in million US$)
2006 424.2
2007 699.1
2008 587.0
2009 197.1
2010 211.6
2011 473.5
2012 139.7
2013 334.7
2014 272.5
2015 245.9
2016 395.5
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
050
100150200250300350400450500550600650700
20
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20
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20
02
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Foreign exchange reserves
(in million US$) Dec.2004 985.7
Dec.2005 1,331.1
Dec.2006 1,871.0
Dec.2007 2,219.2
Dec.2008 2,106.2
Dec.2009 2,289.8
Dec.2010 2,276.9
Dec.2011 2,666.6
Dec.2012 2,891.4
Dec.2013 2,746.9
Dec.2014 2,962.8
Dec.2015 2,471.2
Dec.2016 2,731.8
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
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99
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Ja
n.1
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Feb
.17
External Debt
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
25%28%31%34%37%40%43%46%49%52%55%58%61%64%67%70%73%
800
1,800
2,800
3,800
4,800
5,800
6,800
7,800
8,800
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in million US$ as % of GDP
Budget revenues and expenditures (in million Denar)
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Macedonia
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
XII
.2015
I.201
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IV V VI
VII
VII
I
IX X XI
XII
.2016
I.201
7 II
Budget revenues Budget expenditures
Budget balance (as % of GDP)
--- projected
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Macedonia
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
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200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
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201
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201
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201
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201
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Jan
.-1
7
Feb
.-17
201
7
Fiscal performance (February 2017, in million denars)
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Macedonia
January - February Index January - February 2017
2016 2017 2017/2016 % share % of plan
Total Budget revenues 25,844 25,864 100.1 100.0 13.8
1. Primary revenues 17,357 17,498 100.8 67.7 13.8
A. Tax revenues 14,883 14,982 100.7 57.9 13.8
- personal income tax 2,035 2,153 105.8 8.3 14.1
- profits tax 1,177 1,276 108.4 4.9 11.0
- VAT 7,742 7,889 101.9 30.5 15.2
- excises 2,869 2,657 92.6 10.3 11.8
- import duties 714 758 106.2 2.9 15.0
B. Non-tax revenues 2,474 2,516 101.7 9.7 14.4
2. Capital revenues 531 89 16.8 0.3 3.4
3. Foreign donations 481 407 84.6 1.6 6.5
Total Budget expenditures 30,301 29,568 97.6 100.0 14.3
1. Current expenditures 28,551 26,696 93.5 90.3 14.9
- wages, salaries and allowances 4,238 4,389 103.6 14.8 16.4
- goods and services 2,520 2,120 84.1 7.2 10.8
- transfers 20,813 19,066 91.6 64.5 15.3
- interest 980 1,121 114.4 3.8 13.6
2. Capital expenditures 1,750 2,872 164.1 9.7 10.7
Financing 4,457 3,674 82.4 19.7
1. Borrowing from abroad 612 499 81.5 2.8
2. Domestic borrowing 3,607 2,468 68.4 13.8
3. Deposits 1,164 1,567 134.6 94.2
4. Repayment of principal (outflow) 926 860 92.9 4.6
Public Debt
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Macedonia
20222426283032343638404244464850
1,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,0003,2503,5003,7504,0004,2504,5004,7505,000
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in million US$ as % of GDP (right scale)
Nominal Weighted Interest Rates
Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Dec
.-1
1
Dec
.-1
2
Dec
.-1
3
Dec
.-1
4
Dec
.-1
5
Dec
.-1
6
Jan
.-1
7
Feb
.-17
lending deposit
Nominal Net Wages (in US$)
Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia
450
452
454
456
458
460
462
464
I.201
5 II III
IV V VI
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VII
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IX X XI
XII
.2015
I.201
6 II III
IV V VI
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I
IX X XI
XII
.2016
I.201
7
Nominal net wage
Unemployment (in percent)
* Source: Labor Force Survey (State Statistical Office)
- 30.4% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2011
- “gray economy” is estimated between 20% and 40% of GDP
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
210,000
215,000
220,000
225,000
230,000I.
201
5 II III
IV V VI
VII
VII
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IX X XI
XII
.20
15
I.201
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IV V VI
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IX X XI
XII
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I.201
7 II
Challenges
• Restore political stability
• Increase transparency and ensure rule of law
• Combat corruption, improve governance, strengthen judiciary
• Pursue fiscal consolidation
• Strengthen linkages between FDI and domestic firms
• Increase private sector’s role in the economy
• Improve skills of labor force; reduce brain drain
• Implement reforms needed for EU and NATO accession