outlook for the texas economy - assets.recenter.tamu.edurefinance mortgage applications, which are...

LUIS B. TORRESRESEARCH ECONOMIST

WESLEY MILLERRESEARCH ASSOCIATE

T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

2 0 4 6

Outlook for theTexas Economy

PAIGE SILVARESEARCH ASSOCIATE

JULY 2019 DATA

1

About this Report ................................................................................................................................. 3 July 2019 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 4 Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................. 8

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index .............................................................................. 8 Major Metros Business Cycle Index ............................................................................................... 8 Consumer Confidence Index .......................................................................................................... 9

Financial Activity ................................................................................................................................ 10 30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield .......................................................................... 10 Texas Mortgage Applications ....................................................................................................... 10 Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory (End of Period) ........................................................................ 11

Housing ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................ 12 Residential Construction Coincident Indicator ............................................................................. 12

Energy ................................................................................................................................................. 13 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ................................................................................................. 13 Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count .............................................................................. 13

Employment ....................................................................................................................................... 14 Unemployment Rate .................................................................................................................... 14 Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications ................................................................ 14 Major Metros Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................. 15 Labor Force Participation Rate ..................................................................................................... 15 Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ...................................................................................... 16 Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................... 16 Employment Growth Rate ............................................................................................................ 17 Major Metros Employment Growth Rate .................................................................................... 17

Manufacturing .................................................................................................................................... 18 Manufacturing Employment ........................................................................................................ 18 Major Metros Manufacturing Employment ................................................................................. 18 Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings................................................................................... 19 Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ........................................................... 19 Manufacturing Outlook Survey .................................................................................................... 20

Construction ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Texas Construction Values ........................................................................................................... 21 Major Metros Total Construction Values ..................................................................................... 21 Construction Employment ........................................................................................................... 22 Construction Employee Hourly Earnings ...................................................................................... 22

2

Services ............................................................................................................................................... 23 Services Sector Outlook Survey .................................................................................................... 23 Texas Retail Sector ....................................................................................................................... 23 CPI Inflation Rates ........................................................................................................................ 24 CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) .................................................................................. 24

Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 25 Exports (All Commodities) ............................................................................................................ 25 Manufacturing Exports ................................................................................................................. 25 Crude Oil Exports .......................................................................................................................... 26 Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar .................................................................................... 26 Texas Exports by Country ............................................................................................................. 27

3

Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and trends. All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to [email protected].

Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Silva

Data current as of September 12, 2019

© 2019, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

4

Summary1

Texas’ economy remained robust in the longest U.S. economic expansion on record, reaching 121 consecutive months of growth. Crude oil prices remained low but saw some improvement, while gas prices may rise in the third quarter as pipeline capacity increases. Stable hiring failed to stimulate real earnings, however, unemployment hovered at historical lows. Housing sales trended upward amid healthy economic conditions and falling mortgage interest rates. Real commodity and manufacturing exports improved, but the slowing world economy and escalating trade tensions continue to threaten the Texas economy.

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business-Cycle Index revealed healthy economic activity, accelerating 5.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Strong labor market conditions upheld growth in the major metros. Both Houston and Fort Worth’s metric matched the statewide measure. The Austin and Dallas indices indicated robust economic conditions, increasing 8.5 and 6.3 percent SAAR growth, respectively. Activity in San Antonio registered 2.4 percent growth amid more moderate hiring.

The Texas Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle) inched up slightly as unemployment claims retreated and oil prices rallied. Moderation in the national economy, however, may dampen state growth in the second half of the year. The Texas Consumer Confidence Index surged 11.6 points to reach the highest level since oil prices slid in October 2018.

The extended business-cycle expansion and relatively strict lending standards kept the national foreclosure inventory below 1 percent in 2Q2019 for the third straight quarter. Texas’ foreclosure inventory hovered around levels unseen since before the oil bust in the 1980s at just 0.6 percent. These conditions corroborate the current health of the economy.

Continued concerns about global economic growth and trade uncertainty, however, pulled interest rates down for the ninth consecutive month, although economic fundamentals at the state and national level remain solid. Interest rates could fall further following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield flattened at a two-and-a-half year low of 2.1 percent, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate dropped below 3.8 percent.

1 All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

5

Texans capitalized on lower rates, pushing mortgage applications for home purchases up 18.1 percent year to date (YTD). Refinance mortgage applications, which are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, have doubled since year-end.

Texas housing sales recovered after second quarter declines, trending upward amid lower mortgage interest rates and a robust economy. The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, inched up amid ongoing payroll growth in the industry. Higher wages and an upturn in construction values, however, are crucial for the metric’s continued growth. The Residential Construction Leading Index rose to its highest level since the Great Recession as falling interest rates and a rebound in building permits favored a more positive outlook. (For additional housing commentary and statistics, see Texas Housing Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.)

The average West Texas intermediate crude oil spot price rose above $56 per barrel, more than $5 above the December trough. Better than expected U.S. economic data and concerns over oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz contributed to higher prices. Texas production exceeded five million barrels per day in June2 for the first time in series history, although the active rig count ticked down for the sixth consecutive month to 455 in July. On the natural gas front, prices remained low as mild weather at the beginning of summer led to built-up inventories, precluding July price hikes as temperatures elevated. The Henry Hub spot price fell to $2.36 per million British thermal unit (BTU), extending a three-year low. In the Permian Basin, insufficient infrastructure kept the West Texas Waha spot price below profitable levels, but production remained steady. Prices are expected to increase moderately as additional pipelines go into service in the third quarter.

Texas nonfarm employment accelerated 3.4 percent SAAR, adding 35,200 jobs on top of upward revisions to June numbers. The updates raised the Dallas Fed’s annual employment growth projection to 2.6 percent. The unemployment rate flattened at a series low of 3.4 percent. On the metropolitan level, joblessness remained low as well. Austin maintained the lowest unemployment rate at 2.6 percent, followed by San Antonio at 3 percent. Unemployment in North Texas ticked down to 3.1 percent. In Houston, the unemployment rate fell to a record low at 3.6 percent. After two straight increases, the number of initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 56,500. Labor force participation inched down to 63.7 percent at the state level, but this may be due more to the aging population than to an increasing number of discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force.

As Texas’ real private hourly earnings have failed to make significant headway over the past five years, the spread between the nationwide and state average reached the greatest differential yet. The nominal gap widened to $1.85. Wages in the major metros faltered in July as well. Austin registered nominal earnings of $28.26 per hour; however, the metro’s real wages fell 5.4 percent

2 The release of crude oil production typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2120.pdf

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year over year (YOY). This marks the capital’s seventh consecutive decline. Following eight months of improvement, payment in Dallas ($28.65) and San Antonio ($24.15) sank 2.9 and 1.0 percent YOY, respectively, after adjusting for inflation. Houston’s real earnings declined 2.5 percent YOY, the fourth decrease in the past five months while nominal earnings ticked down to $27.29 per hour. Fort Worth was the exception as hourly wages surpassed $27 for the first time in series history, rising 1.8 percent YOY after adjusting for inflation.

In an environment of stagnant wages, payrolls expanded in all the major metros. Austin and Dallas led in terms of SAAR employment growth, accelerating 4.5 percent. Austin added 3,500 positions in July, with more than half of the new jobs belonging to either the retail trade or leisure/hospitality industry. Payrolls expanded by 14,200 in Dallas, bolstered by gains in the professional/business services and financial activities sectors. San Antonio employment inched up 2 percent SAAR, creating 3,100 jobs. More than half of the positions added were education/health related. The same sector expanded in Fort Worth, which, along with wholesale trade, supported a 4,300-job increase. Houston payrolls increased by only 2,900 but maintained 3.7 percent SAAR. Mining/logging and service sectors losses weighed on professional/business services and leisure/hospitality expansions.

Although Houston’s energy sector shed jobs, Texas’ goods-producing employment created 6,700 positions as construction payrolls upheld steady growth. Real hourly construction earnings, however, declined YOY for the sixth straight month. This may be due to employers hiring more low-skilled workers as the demand for higher-paid tradesmen remain largely unfilled. Total construction values extended a downward trend following a 3Q2018 peak in activity. The nonresidential sector continued to drag as office building activity took a step back in DFW and Austin. Residential values leveled after declining at year-end and through 1Q2019. Increased apartment building in San Antonio offset much of the reduction in Houston. Single-family private construction values remained suppressed across the state.

Texas’ manufacturing employment increased by 3,500 jobs in July after a sluggish start to the year. The industry added 3,500 new jobs, the greatest monthly change since December. Forty percent of the gains, however, compensated for Austin’s four-month reduction. North Texas payrolls added 1,000 and 700 jobs in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. Industry employment in San Antonio continued to grow steadily, adding more than 500 jobs YTD.

Real hourly manufacturing earnings decreased YOY on a statewide basis for the third consecutive month. Houston wages stabilized after a five-month decline but paid less than the nationwide average. Earnings in Dallas and San Antonio trended down while Fort Worth’s hourly wages showed signs of moderating growth after seven straight increases. The Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Outlook Survey corroborated these trends as the employment index accelerated with nearly a quarter of respondents reporting increased hiring. Fewer survey participants, however, reported rising wages and benefits compared with June. On the other hand, production, capacity utilization, number of new orders, and the growth rate of new orders rose despite increasing input prices. Escalations in U.S.-China trade tensions may inhibit growth in the coming months.

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Employment growth in Texas’ service-providing sector remained strong, registering 28,500 new positions. Accommodation/food services accounted for over a fifth of the monthly increase despite comprising only 10 percent of the nonfarm workforce. The health care/social assistance sector followed, adding 6,500 new employees. Consistent with the data, the Dallas Fed’s Service Sector Outlook Survey revealed acceleration in the employment (full-time and part-time) and number of hours worked indices. Outlook uncertainty remained strong amid tariff concerns, but more than a third of businesses declared increases in revenue.

Increased energy prices and strong consumer spending lifted the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) above 1.8 percent YOY. Core inflation, however, achieved the Fed’s 2 percent benchmark for the second straight month. Inflation may rise further in the third quarter as the interest rate decrease at the end of July takes effect. Slight improvement in the transportation sector coupled with rebounding housing costs pulled the Dallas CPI up 2.3 percent YOY.

As the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar3 exhibited modest depreciation for the second consecutive month, Texas’ real commodity exports rose 1.4 percent to a record-high. Most of the change is due to increased energy-related, chemical, and computer/electronic product shipments to Mexico. National exports climbed 3.7 percent but remained below May 2018 peak levels before U.S.-China tariffs escalated. State manufacturing exports registered a third monthly increase after adjusting for inflation, rising 2.3 percent. Crude oil exports fell 6.3 percent from the previous month’s all-time high as exports to China backtracked. The YTD record, however, registered 32.2 percent growth.

The value of total Texas exports to China increased 32.3 percent YTD but remained more than 40 percent below the pre-tariff high in October 2017. At that time, exports to China comprised 7.7 percent of world exports. Presently, less than 4 percent of exports from Texas are sent to China, ranking fourth behind Mexico (33.1 percent), Canada (8.2 percent), and South Korea (5.7 percent) as crude oil exports to the latter increased.

3 The release of Texas retail sales and trade-weighted value of the dollar data typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

8

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Business Cycle IndexLeading Index (Right Axis)

-13.0

-8.0

-3.0

2.0

7.0

12.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Business Cycle Index (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2046-3.pdf

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2046.pdf

9

Note: Trend-cycle Component. Source: Conference Board

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Texas

United States

Consumer Confidence Index (Index Jan 2011 = 100)

10

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Mortgage Bond

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Refinance Purchase

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield (Percent)

Texas Mortgage Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

11

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1Q79

3Q81

1Q84

3Q86

1Q89

3Q91

1Q94

3Q96

1Q99

3Q01

1Q04

3Q06

1Q09

3Q11

1Q14

3Q16

1Q19

Texas

United States

Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory (End of Period) (Percent)

12

Note: Trend-cycle component. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-cycle component. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index

Residential Construction Coincident Indicator (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100)


13

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count. Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Crude Oil

Natural Gas(Right Axis)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis)

Number of Operating Rigs

Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count (Count)

(Number of rigs) (Millions of barrels per day)

$/Barrel Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

($) $/million BTU



14

Note: Seasonally adjusted. July 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications.

Source: Department of Labor

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)



15

Major Metros Unemployment Rate

(Percent)

Note: Seasonally adjusted. July 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio

62

63

64

65

66

67

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percent)



16

Notes: Inflation adjusted. July 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States

Texas

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)



17

Note: Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average. July 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)

Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)



18



-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio

Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Major Metros Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)



19



-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston–The Woodlands–Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)



20

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Index)


21

Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics

Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Residential Non-residential Total Value

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Texas Construction Values (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Major Metros Total Construction Values (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

22

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. July 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States Texas

Construction Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Construction Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)



23

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management

Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information, see Texas Retail Sector. Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Dallas Federal Reserve BankRetail Survey

Retail Sales(Right Axis)

Services Sector Outlook Survey (Index)

Texas Retail Sector (Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Index Year-over-Year

Percent



24

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: The Dallas CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are included in the graph above. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Dallas-Fort Worth

Core Inflation

-13

-9

-5

-1

3

7

11

15

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Food and Beverages Housing

Transportation Medical

CPI Inflation Rates (Dallas Components) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

CPI Inflation Rates (Year-over-Year Percent Change)


25

Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

Exports (All Commodities) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Manufacturing Exports (Year-over-Year Percent Change)



26

Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Crude Oil Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016 2017 2018 2019

United States

Texas

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Crude Oil Exports (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar (Index Jan 2007 = 100)



27

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Texas Exports by Country (Percent)


i

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