US Population Doubled while the Texas Population Tripled 1950-2010

Decade US % Growth Texas % Growth

1950’s 151.3 18.5 7.7 24.2

1960’s 179.3 13.3 9.5 16.9

1970’s 203.2 11.5 11.1 27.1

1980’s 226.5 9.8 14.2 19.4

1990’s 248.7 13.2 16.9 22.8

2000’s 281.4 9.7 20.8 20.6

2010’s 308.7 25.1

Population growth of the City and El Paso County- 1950-

2010Decade City of El

Paso% Growth El Paso

County% Growth

1950’s 130,485 112 194,968 61.6

1960’s 276,687 22.7 314,070 14.4

1970’s 339,615 25.2 359,291 33.6

1980’s 425,269 21.2 479,899 23.3

1990’s 515,342 9.4 591,610 14.9

2000’s 563,662 15.2 679,622 17.8

2010’s 649,651 800,674

Texas City Populations- 2010

City Population

Rank in the US

Houston 2.09 million

4

San Antonio

1.32 million

7

Dallas 1.19 million

8

El Paso 649,651 19

20 years ago, El Paso was the 4th most populous city in Texas- it’s now 6th

• The two cities that surpassed us-• Austin- 790,390• Fort Worth- 741,206• We grew quickly, 15% during the

2000 decade, but not nearly at the rate as that part of the State from I-35 eastward.

Metropolitan area populations- 2010

Metro Area Population Rank in the US % living in the city

Dallas- Ft. Worth

6,371,773 4 21

Houston-Sugarland

5,946,800 6 38

San Antonio 2,142,508 25 67

El Paso 800,647 66 83

 2000

Population2010 Population

Increase in Population

% Increase Pop 

Share of Increase

White 10,933,313   11,397,345      464,032 4.2% 10.8%

Hispanic or Latino 6,669,666     9,460,921   2,791,255 41.8% 65.0%

 African American 2,364,255     2,886,825      522,570 22.1% 12.2%

Asian 554,445        948,426      393,981 71.1% 9.2%

Non White Total  9,918,507  13,748,216  3,829,709 38.6%  89.2% 

Texas Total 20,851,820   25,145,561   4,293,741 20.6% 100.0%

Texas Population Growth 2000-2010Source: 2010 U.S. Census

Racial/Ethnic Population of Major Cities in Texas- 2010

City Population

African American

Native American

Asian American

Latino

Austin 790,390 64,604 8.1%

6,9010.9%

49,8646.3%

277,70735.1%

Dallas 1,197,816 298,93325%

8,0990.7%

34,2632.9%

507,30942.4%

El Paso 649,121 22,0033.4%

4,7570.7%

7,7233.7%

523,72180.7%

Fort Worth 721,206 140,13318.9%

4,7620.6%

24,6153.7%

252,46834.1%

Houston 2,099,541 498,46623.7%

14,9970.7%

126,3786%

919,66843.8%

San Antonio

1,327,407 91,2806.9%

11,8000.9%

32,2542.4%

838,95263.2%

Some politics

• From the end of the civil war to the end of the 1970’s Texas was dominated by the Democrats.

• From the 1980’s to now- an evolution toward the GOP, primarily by Whites.

• The GOP now controls state government and is the jewel in the GOP’s national political crown.

• Most African Americans, Asian Americans and Latinos stayed with the Democrats.

• This strongly explains the next slide of statewide partisan support.

Partisan Strength- 2008

1

Partisanship in the 2012 Elections- Populous Counties

Percent Percent

CountyRepublica

n DemocratHARRIS (Houston) 49.3% 49.4%DALLAS 41.65% 57.11%TARRANT (Ft. Worth) 57.11% 41.42%BEXAR (San Antonio) 47% 51.6%TRAVIS (Austin) 36.2% 60.14%COLLIN (Suburban Dallas) 65% 33.5%DENTON (Suburban Dallas) 65% 33.5%FT. BEND (Suburban Houston) 53% 46%EL PASO 33.1% 65.5%

GOP’s Growth & Opportunity Project’s post-election analysis- ethnicity and

race• “…many minorities wrongly think that Republicans do not

like them or want them in the country.”• “We have become expert in how to provide ideological

reinforcement to like-minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with, or welcoming to, those who do not agree with us on every issue.”

• “If we want racial and ethnic minority voters to support Republicans, we have to engage them and show our sincerity.”

• “The key problem is that the Republican Party’s message offends too many people unnecessarily. We win the economic message, which is the most important to voters, but we then lose them when we discuss other issues.”

George W. Bush’s 1998 gubernatorial re-election

• Bush stated publically that he wanted to win in El Paso County.

• His strategy- many visits and campaign ads targeted at the voters, especially Latino voters.

• He got 50.01% of the vote.• Student exit poll- 37% of Latinos surveyed voted

for Bush.• In 2000- he lost in EP county- 39.7% of all votes

cast.• Student exit poll- 25% of Latinos surveyed voted

for Bush.

Political Participation

Socio demographicsMobilization

The two most powerful socio demographic variables that predict

the likelihood of participating• Age- as age increases through

the 60’s, the likelihood of participating increases.

• Median age in the US- 37 years• Median age in Texas- 33.5 years• Median age in El Paso- 32.5

years

The two most powerful socio demographic variables that predict

the likelihood of participating• Level of education- the higher the

level of education attainment the greater the likelihood of participating.

• For those age 25 and over- the percent with no HS diploma

• US- 12.4%• Texas- 19.6%• El Paso- 25.4%

El Paso County voter turnout in Presidential elections

Year Registered Voters

# of Voters Voter Turnout

1988 199671 118781 59.5%

1992 210125 135114 64.3%

1996 296995 134710 45.4%

2000 352359 145042 41.2%

2004 371995 173969 46.7%

2008 387146 189119 48.8%

2012 376267 176146 46.8%