otr results
DESCRIPTION
OTR Results. ERTAC EGU –RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013. Introduction. Version 1.65 of ERTAC EGU Continental US (CONUS) Inputs Future year is 2020 Model run conducted by VADEQ Results are based on: Known shutdowns/controls/new units as of Jan-Feb 2013 AEO 2013/NERC 2012 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
OTR ResultsERTAC EGU –RESULTS WEBINAR
May 16, 2013
2
Introduction Version 1.65 of ERTAC EGU Continental US
(CONUS) Inputs Future year is 2020 Model run conducted by VADEQ Results are based on:
Known shutdowns/controls/new units as of Jan-Feb 2013
AEO 2013/NERC 2012 First version of the ERTAC EGU projection code
Results are focused on the OTR+VA 11 full OTC member states, DC, and all of Virginia
3
Current ERTAC Region Map
4
CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VA0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
FY Coal FY Gas FY Oil
CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VA0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
BY Coal BY Gas BY Oil
ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 FF Gen. (OTR+VA)
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
5
Top 25 Generators in 2020
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
Bruce
Mansfie
ld - 2
(PA)
Bruce
Mansfie
ld - 1
(PA)
Bruce
Mansfie
ld - 3
(PA)
Homer
City -
3 (PA
)
Homer
City -
1 (PA
)
Keyst
one -
1 (PA
)
Cone
maugh
- 1 (P
A)
Homer
City -
2 (PA
)
Cone
maugh
- 2 (P
A)
AES S
omers
et (Ki
ntigh
) - 1 (
NY)
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
1 (PA
)
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
3 (PA
)
Brunn
er Isla
nd - 3
(PA)
Keyst
one -
2 (PA
)
Montou
r - 1 (
PA)
Brand
on Sho
res - 2
(MD)
Montou
r - 2 (
PA)
Chesw
ick - 1
(PA)
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
2 (PA
)
Mirant
Morgant
own -
2 (MD)
Brand
on Sho
res - 1
(MD)
Mirant
Morgan
town -
1 (MD)
Brunn
er Isla
nd - 2
(PA)
Virgin
ia City
Hybrid
Energ
y Cent
er - 2
(VA)
Virgin
ia City
Hybrid
Energ
y Cent
er - 1
(VA)
010000002000000300000040000005000000600000070000008000000 Base year gen. Future year gen.
6
Gas-fired Generation Deficit Units (2020)
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
“Generation Deficit Units” reflect demand met through unanticipated units
Extra gas capacity needed; mostly during peak demand periods
No coal, oil, or boiler gas GDUs created
Region Combined Cycle Single CycleGDUs Max
DeficitMax Hour
GDUs Max Deficit
Max Hour
NEWE 0 0 0 0NYUP 0 0 0 0NYLI 0 0 0 0NYCW 0 0 0 0RFCE 3 1285 MW 464 17 2567 MW 118RFCW (OTR + VA)
0 0 6 6188 MW 10
7
Coal Unit Underutilzation(2020)
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
Some unused capacity would be reserve capacity, downtime, etc.
Only RFCW had units with utilization above 70%
High level of underutilization implies that there may be unaccounted for retirements
Region Utilization Fraction Unused CapacityRetired
> 0% & < 50%
>= 50% Annual (Million MW-hr)
NEWE 1 10 0 21 out of 45NYUP 13 13 4 12 out of 34RFCE 24 38 19 88 out of 241RFCW (OTR + VA)
0 9 14 27 out of 109
8
Preliminary Conclusions Overall decreased demand projected for fossil
fuel generation in Eastern USA Larger reduction in fossil fuel generation
projected in North East/Mid-Atlantic Shift to natural gas use projected in nearly
every state in the North East Some uncertainty as to where the projected
peak growth in gas generation will come from Ample projected coal capacity may allow more
retirements
9
ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 SOX (OTR+VA)
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VA0
100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000
1000000
Base Year Annual SO2 Future Year Annual SO2CAIR 2015 Cap
10
Top 25 SOX Emitters in 2020
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
Homer
City - 1
(PA)
Homer
City - 2
(PA)
Portla
nd - 2
(PA)
Bruce M
ansfie
ld - 3
(PA)
Shaw
ville -
4 (PA
)
Portla
nd - 1
(PA)
Shaw
ville -
3 (PA
)
Herbert
A Wag
ner -
3 (MD)
Shaw
ville -
2 (PA
)
New Cast
le - 5
(PA)
Shaw
ville -
1 (PA
)
New Cast
le - 4
(PA)
New Cast
le - 3
(PA)
Dynegy
Danska
mmer - 4
(NY)
Bruce M
ansfie
ld - 2
(PA)
Bruce M
ansfie
ld - 1
(PA)
R. Pau
l Smith
Power
Statio
n - 11
(MD)
C P Cran
e - 2
(MD)
Homer
City - 3
(PA)
Titus
- 1 (P
A)
Dynegy
Danska
mmer - 3
(NY)
Titus
- 2 (P
A)
Herbert
A Wag
ner -
2 (MD)
C P Cran
e - 1
(MD)
AES So
merset
(Kinti
gh ) -
1 (NY)
0
20000
40000
60000
Base Year Annual SO2 Future Year Annual SO2
Homer City has plan approval to install scrubbers
11
Top 25 SOX Rates (lbs/mmbtu) in 2020
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
Shaw
ville -
2 (PA
)
Shaw
ville -
1 (PA
)
Portla
nd - 1
(PA)
Portla
nd - 2
(PA)
Homer
City - 1
(PA)
Homer
City - 2
(PA)
Shaw
ville -
4 (PA
)
Shaw
ville -
3 (PA
)
S A Carl
son - 9
(NY)
S A Carl
son - 1
0 (NY)
S A Carl
son - 1
2 (NY)
New Cast
le - 5
(PA)
New Cast
le - 3
(PA)
New Cast
le - 4
(PA)
Huntle
y Pow
er - 6
5 (NY)
Huntle
y Pow
er - 6
6 (NY)
Titus
- 3 (P
A)
Titus
- 2 (P
A)
Titus
- 1 (P
A)
R. Pau
l Smith
Power
Statio
n - 11
(MD)
R. Pau
l Smith
Power
Statio
n - 9
(MD)
Herbert
A Wag
ner -
2 (MD)
Herbert
A Wag
ner -
3 (MD)
Schille
r - 6 (
NH)
C P Cran
e - 2
(MD)
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5 Future Year SOX Rate Base Year SOX Rate
12
ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 NOX (OTR+VA)
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VA0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000Base Year OS NOx Future Year OS NOx CAIR 2015 OS Cap
13
Top 25 NOX Emitters in 2020
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
1 (PA
)
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
3 (PA
)
Brunne
r Islan
d - 3
(PA)
Homer
City - 3
(PA)
Bruce M
ansfie
ld - 3
(PA)
Bruce M
ansfie
ld - 2
(PA)
Brunne
r Islan
d - 2
(PA)
Chesw
ick - 1
(PA)
Homer
City - 2
(PA)
Brando
n Sho
res - 1
(MD)
Brunne
r Islan
d - 1
(PA)
Portla
nd - 2
(PA)
Mirant
Chalk P
oint -
2 (MD)
010002000300040005000
Base Year OS NOx Future Year OS NOx
14
Top 25 Annual NOX Rates (lbs/mmbtu) in 2020
ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results
Huntle
y Pow
er - 6
5 (NY)
Huntle
y Pow
er - 6
6 (NY)
C P Cran
e - 1
(MD)
C P Cran
e - 2
(MD)
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
1 (PA
)
Shaw
ville -
1 (PA
)
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
2 (PA
)
Shaw
ville -
2 (PA
)
Hatfield
s Ferr
y Pow
er Sta
tion -
3 (PA
)
R. Pau
l Smith
Power
Statio
n - 9
(MD)
AES Bea
ver Valle
y LLC
- 35 (
PA)
New Cast
le - 5
(PA)
S A Carl
son - 1
0 (NY)
AES Bea
ver Valle
y LLC
- 32 (
PA)
S A Carl
son - 9
(NY)
AES Bea
ver Valle
y LLC
- 34 (
PA)
S A Carl
son - 1
2 (NY)
Shaw
ville -
4 (PA
)
Shaw
ville -
3 (PA
)
New Cast
le - 4
(PA)
AES Bea
ver Valle
y LLC
- 33 (
PA)
New Cast
le - 3
(PA)
Portla
nd - 2
(PA)
R. Pau
l Smith
Power
Statio
n - 11
(MD)
Conem
augh
- 1 (P
A)0
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.7 Base Year NOX Rates Future Year NOX Rates
15
Questions?
XKCD.com
18
ERTAC EGU Next StepsERTAC EGU – RESULTS WEBINAR
May 16, 2013
19
Next StepsConversion to SMOKE-Ready InputsSensitivity RunsStakeholder OutreachRuns/Growth Rate DocumentationUpdate Base Year to 2011Add to Software Functionality
20
Complete Conversion to SMOKE Ready Inputs The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions
(SMOKE) is the emissions modeling tool used to convert inventories into modeling inputs
ERTAC EGU results are not in the SMOKE input format
A small workgroup is currently testing and improving data inputs for the conversion
OTC/MANE-VU will model air quality using ERTAC EGU outputs for their region – results should be available Fall 2013
Potential Sensitivity Runs for ERTAC EGU
21
PJM Deactivation List
Alternative Growth Rates
CAIR Allowance Use
Potential Transport Rules
High Electricity Demand Days/Demand Response
MATS & Other Federal Measures
Energy Efficiency/Renewable Energy
22
Complete Stakeholder Outreach Process 5/20 - In person meeting at LADCO offices
(full) 6/28 - Comments due on version 1.65 from
stakeholders Comments should be sent to regional contact
23
Other Next Steps Documentation of runs and growth rate
development needs to be completed to ease reproducibility of results
The base year needs to be updated to a more recent year, with 2011 being a good choice since it is a National Emission Inventory year
Several improvements to the code’s functionality have been discussed throughout the process and in the long term enhancement will be made if funding is secured
24
Questions?
BiLK_Thorn @ flickr