ost horizon scanning centre what is….. horizon scanning? esrc research methods festival 2008 st...
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OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
What is….. Horizon Scanning?
ESRC Research Methods Festival 2008
St Catherine’s College, Oxford
02 July 2008
Dr Harry WoodroofLeader, Delta (S&T) ScanHorizon Scanning Centre
Government Office for ScienceDepartment of Innovation, Universities and Skills
Bay 250, Kingsgate House, 66 – 74 Victoria St, London. SW1E 6SW +44 (0)203 300 8840 [email protected]
<http://www.foresight.gov.uk/horizonscanning/>
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Prime Minister and Cabinet
Professor John BeddingtonGovernment Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science
Government Office for Science(GO-Science)
SocialTechnicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolitical
Horizon Scanning Centresmaller projects, entire policy spectrum
strategy
The Foresight Programme
Foresight projects(large (18 months), science-based)
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
HSC Aims HSC Aims (from 10 year S&I investment) – launched March ‘05(from 10 year S&I investment) – launched March ‘05
• Inform strategic prioritisation across UK Govt
• Capability-raising in Govt Depts
Implemented through:
• Targeted projects
• Training
• Strong networks
Future Analysts Network (FAN) Club
30+ projects, 30+ depts., 1000+ in training / networking events,30+ projects, 30+ depts., 1000+ in training / networking events,
Direct impacts on Govt. Strategy, Policy, Skills, PrioritisationDirect impacts on Govt. Strategy, Policy, Skills, Prioritisation
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Horizon Scanning is... Horizon Scanning is...
“…“…. the . the systematicsystematic examination of potential examination of potential threats, threats, opportunities opportunities and likely developments including but not and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.” unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.”
(Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)(Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Horizon scanning is……Horizon scanning is……
Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales
Looking across – beyond usual sources
beyondbeyond a ‘single a ‘single expected expected
future’future’toto
a ‘range of a ‘range of possible possible futures’futures’
to considerto consider implications implications for today’s for today’s decisionsdecisions
…….resilience and adaptability in strategy.resilience and adaptability in strategy
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
What horizon scanning is … and isn’t
• It is NOT about:– Predicting the future
• It IS about:– Exploring possibilities for the future to
ensure that your strategies are robust
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Range of horizon scanning activity
SocialTechnicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolitical
Science&Technology
FORESIGHT
INSIGHT
ACTION(from IFTF)
Developing issues
Strategicchangemanagement
Strategicprioritisation
Policydecisions
Riskmanagement
Threatidentification
S&Tresearchpriorities
PURPOSES
scanning
engagementto achieve impact
Implications (so what?)
Decisions
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Nature of horizon scanning
• The evidence-based policy “paradox”:– Policy is about solutions for the future– But conventional “evidence” is about the past
• We can project trends forwards… but all trends eventually change
• The parable of the turkey• HS is an approach to resolving the paradox
by drawing on tacit knowledge and the wisdom of crowds (diversity is v. important)
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Horizon Scanning – Evidential Tools (published Dec 06)Horizon Scanning – Evidential Tools (published Dec 06)
Outsights / Ipsos
MO
RI
SCAN
(everything)
Institute for the F
uture
Delta Scan:Delta Scan:cutting-edge perspectivesof over 250 S&T experts
Sigma Scan:Sigma Scan:synthesis of best
global futures work
www.sigmascan.org
www.deltascan.org
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Sigmascan
• Right to live: right to die?• Global courting : the supremacy of international law.• Increase in e-commuting.• UK rules OK : isolationist Britain.• End of public broadcasting.• Ghettoisation of minority populations.• Landfill capacity limits reached.• Economic impact of ageing.• The “rights” of robots.• Corrupting aid flows• ………………….
Delta(S&T) scan
• Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine.• Quantum chemistry for pollution abatement.• Nanowire sensors for DNA testing.• Advent of molecular archaeology.• Computing on the human platform.• Solar: the energy wild-card.• From ink-jet printing to personal fabrication.• Brazil’s expanding tech. sector.• ………………….
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Scan Architecture - linking evidence and analysis
– Summary sentence– Supporting analysis (paras)– Bullet-points
• Implications• Barriers/inhibitors• Early indicators• Parallels/precedents• Leading institutions
– Sources : evidence-based• Multi-level outputs
– Range : single sentence to great detail– Portal for further research
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
HSC “scan of scans”
& “expert views”
In common with much futures/foresight work, the Scans are designed to challenge current thinking and implicit assumptions. They do not to attempt to predict the future.
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Sigma Scan
“scan of scans”
The Sigma Scan is a synthesis of future issues and trends covering the full public policy agenda drawn from a range of sources (including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blog sites, minority communities, futurists).
Adam Smith Institute
Arlington Institute
Atlantic Monthly
Brookings Institution
Cato Center for Trade Policy Studies
Centre for European Reform
Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Chatham House
Foreign Affairs
Hoover Digest
Independent Commission on Population and Quality of Life
Institut de Recherche en Politiques Publiques
Institute for Fiscal Studies
British Social Attitudes Survey
Centre for Environmental Research, Columbia University
e-Living (EC 5FP) Project
ESRC Centre for Business Research,
Institute of Development Studies
Los Angeles Law Review
Policy Studies Review
Russian Journal, The
Science
Science and Public Policy
World Values Survey
the top Horizon Scan sources
global coverage
both ‘traditional’ and ‘unconventional’
Europe 2020
Future of Work
Futures
Futurist
Institute for the Future
McKinsey Global Institute
MORI Polls
Shaping Tomorrow
Shell Global Scenarios
Siemens Horizons
SRI Consulting
World Future Society
Think tanks
Academic publications
Mainstream media
Central Intelligence Agency (US)
Commonwealth Secretariat
Competition Commission
DEFRA Baseline Scan
DEFRA Forward Look
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
Department for International Development
Department for Work and Pensions
Department of Education (US)
Department of Health
Department of Justice (US)
Department of Labor (US)
Corporate Foresight
Expert/Strategic thinkers
Government sources
Alternative journals
Amnesty International
Board of Deputies of British Jews
British Council
Countryside Alliance
International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement
Make Poverty History campaign
Muslim Council of Britain
Oxfam
Trade Union Congress
World Health Organization
World Trade Organization
Institute for Public Policy Research
Charities/NGOs
Blog sites
Minority communities
Futurologists
SIGMA : scan of scans
Process ProvenanceLeading Futures sources scanned for
key issues1. Overview scan
2. Issues ‘tree’ Range of issues identified from mainstream-marginal.
3. Issue generation1. Brainstorming, noting and scoping2. Sources: review available evidence3. Drafting within defined text-fields 4. Review and further referencing
4. Internal QC Partnership: 3 stages of edit
6. External review & gap filling
Stakeholders, end-users and experts: engagement, enrichment & gaps
5. ‘Horizon’ review Horizon panel: Issue topics sense-checked and reviewed for gaps
Sigma Scan
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Delta (S&T) Scan
“expert views”
The Delta (S&T) Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication.
Interviews
Workshops
wiki
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
2008 refresh :issue selection criteria
Gap: is not already covered sufficiently in the Sigma-Delta Scan
Relevance: the theme or trend is potentially relevant to a wide range of UK policy stakeholders and departments, or strongly relevant to a smaller
number of departments/policymakers.
Impact: the theme or trend could have significant impacts on important aspects of UK Government policy.
Evidence: the theme or trend is underpinned, at least to some degree, by a critical mass of authoritative, credible evidence.
Stimulus: the theme or topic is future-focussed and not merely descriptive of current reality or known variables and reporting. It either describes
something new or casts new light on an existing issue.
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Developing robust and sustainable strategies
Where we are now
Where we want to be
How
we
get there
Analysis of past evidence
Analysis of core certainties (modelling,
forecasting)
Exploration of uncertainties
(horizon scanning)
Creation of vision (horizon
scanning)
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
Example ProjectExample ProjectImpactsImpacts
Asia Task Force, PBR 05, Asia Task Force, PBR 05, Instrumental in shaping trade policyInstrumental in shaping trade policy
& UKTI Strategy, & UKTI Strategy,
IDENTITYIDENTITYMANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT
Crosby/HMT – public/private forumCrosby/HMT – public/private forumKey statement on ID policy architectureKey statement on ID policy architecture
[HMT, HO, Industry, LSE, Liberty][HMT, HO, Industry, LSE, Liberty]
INTERNATIONALINTERNATIONALFUTURESFUTURESPROJECTPROJECT
? ?
20 perm secs, 13 depts - 20 perm secs, 13 depts - HMT (International Institutions)HMT (International Institutions)FCO/DfID/MoD – cross-dept strategic FCO/DfID/MoD – cross-dept strategic
issuesissuesUKTI – comparative advantageUKTI – comparative advantageOSI International Strategy,OSI International Strategy,BERR – Board strategyBERR – Board strategyDIUS - ?DIUS - ?, etc.,…, etc.,…
EMERGINGEMERGINGTECHNOLOGIESTECHNOLOGIES
14 Depts. prioritisation14 Depts. prioritisationHMT CSR PublicationHMT CSR Publication
SR GuidanceSR GuidanceInforms public dialogueInforms public dialogue
MoD strategic trendsMoD strategic trendsHSE future of workHSE future of work
OSI CSR bidOSI CSR bid