Horizon Scanning in Government

Concept, Country Experiences, and Models for Switzerland

Beat Habegger

ETH ZurichCSS

ETH ZurichCSS

The Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich specializes in research, teaching, and information services in the fields of international relations and security policy. The CSS also acts as a consultant to various political bodies and the general public. The Center is engaged in research projects with a number of Swiss and international partners, focusing on new risks, European and transatlantic security, strategy and doctrine, state failure and state building, and Swiss foreign and security policy.

Confronted with an increasingly interconnected and dynamically changing world, governments are developing new ways of thinking ahead and planning strategically to cope better with future threats and opportunities. This report on Horizon Scanning in Government presents an innovative approach to support governments in dealing with uncertainties and in envisaging and realizing the policies they desire. It outlines the concept and purpose of horizon scanning, reviews the experiences of the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands, and develops perspectives for the establish-ment of horizon scanning in Switzerland.

© 2009 Center for Security Studies

Contact:Center for Security Studies Seilergraben 45-49ETH Zentrum / SEICH-8092 ZurichSwitzerland Tel.: +41-44-632 40 25css@sipo.gess.ethz.ch

Commissioned by the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the official position of the Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection, the Swiss Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection, and Sport or any other governmental body. They represent the views and interpretations of the author, unless otherwise stated.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior per-mission of the Center for Security Studies.

Table of Contents

List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................... 4

Executive Summary..................................................................................................... 5

1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 7

2 The Concept of Horizon Scanning..................................................................... 8

2.1 Horizonscansaspolicytools....................................................................82.2 Horizonscanningaspartofacomprehensiveforesightprocess...............102.3 Keyinsightsandmessages......................................................................12

3 Review of Country Experiences ....................................................................... 13

3.1 UnitedKingdomForesightProgramme.................................................133.1.1 Evolutionandinstitutionalarrangements...............................................143.1.2 Programandactivities............................................................................153.1.3 Conclusions...........................................................................................173.2 Singapore’sRiskAssessmentandHorizonScanning..............................173.2.1 Evolutionandinstitutionalarrangements...............................................173.2.2 Programsandactivities...........................................................................193.2.3 Conclusions...........................................................................................203.3 TheNetherlandsHorizonScanProject..................................................213.3.1 Evolutionandinstitutionalarrangements...............................................213.3.2 Programsandactivities...........................................................................213.3.3 Conclusions............................................................................................223.4 Keyinsightsandmessages......................................................................23

4 Horizon Scanning in Switzerland .................................................................... 25

4.1 Model1:HorizonScanningSwitzerlandProject...................................264.2 Model2:SwissHorizonScanningCenterofExcellence........................274.3 Model3:HorizonScanningforSwissNationalSecurity.......................284.4 Linkagestoongoingprojectsandkeyquestions.....................................28

5 Summary and Next Steps ................................................................................ 31

6 References ....................................................................................................... 33

6.1 Bibliography..........................................................................................336.2 Officialdocumentsandconferencereports............................................34

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Horizon Scanning in Government

List of Abbreviations

BERR DepartmentforBusiness,EnterpriseandRegulatoryReform(UK)CENS CentreofExcellenceforNationalSecurity(Singapore)COS CommissionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(Netherlands)DDPS DepartmentofDefence,CivilProtectionandSport(Switzerland)DIUS DepartmentforInnovation,UniversitiesandSkills(UK)FAN FuturesAnalysts’NetworkFOCP FederalOfficeforCivilProtection(Switzerland)GCSA GovernmentChiefScientificAdvisor(UK)GDP GrossDomesticProductHSC HorizonScanningCentre(UK,Singapore)JCTC JointCounterTerrorismCenter(Singapore)NGO Non-GovernmentalOrganizationNSCC NationalSecurityCoordinationCentre(Singapore)NSCS NationalSecurityCoordinationSecretariat(Singapore)OECD OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentOSINT OpenSourceIntelligenceOST OfficeofScienceandTechnology(UK)R&D ResearchandDevelopmentRAHS RiskAssessmentandHorizonScanning(Singapore)REC RAHSExperimentationCentre(Singapore)SARS SevereAcuteRespiratorySyndromeS&T ScienceandTechnologySOA ServiceOrientedArchitecture(Singapore)STEEP Social,Technological,Economic,Ecological,PoliticalUK UnitedKingdomUS UnitedStatesofAmerica

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Executive Summary

Thisreportoutlinestheconceptandpurposeofhorizonscanning,reviewstheexperiencesoftheUnitedKingdom,Singapore,andtheNetherlands,anddevelopsperspectivesfortheestablish-mentofhorizonscanninginSwitzerland.

1. The contribution of horizon scanning to policymaking

Theconceptofhorizonscanningisill-definedanduseddifferentlybyvariousactors.Inanar-rowsense,itreferstoapolicy toolthatsystematicallygathersabroadrangeofinformationaboutemergingissuesandtrendsinanorganization’spolitical,economic,social,technological,orecologicalenvironment.Moregenerally,itisalsousedasasynonymforavarietyofso-calledforesight activitiesthataimtodevelopthecapabilitiesoforganizationstodealbetterwithanuncertainandcomplexfuture.Twokeyfunctionsforpolicymakingemerge:

→ Information function:Horizonscanninginformspolicy-makersaboutemergingtrendsanddevelopmentsinanorganization’sexternalenvironment.Itsmainproductsarestrategicscansthatcoverabroadrangeofissuesandaredisseminatedintheformofpolicybriefs,reports,orscenarios.

→ Policy development function:Horizonscanningreferstoaprocessthatsupportstheenvi-sioningofdesiredfuturesandemphasizesthecreationofnetworksandknowledgeflowsbetweenpeopleandorganizations.Intensifiedinteractionsacrossprofessionalandpolicycommunitiesstimulatetheemergenceofsharedunderstandingsandthusfacilitatethedevelopmentofinnovativepolicies.

2. Country experiences: United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands

Thethreereviewedcountriesdemonstratethemultifacetednatureofhorizonscanningandthemanifoldobjectivesitserves.Althoughitmustalwaysbeadaptedtoanorganization’sparticularneeds,somecommonideasandprinciplesemergefromthereviewedcountryexperiences:

• Theprogramsgrewoutofdifferentpolicyareasandareinstitutionallyattachedtodiffer-entgovernmentalbodies,buttheyallaimtobewideinscopeandtomainstream horizonscanningthroughoutallpolicyareasandgovernmentdepartments.

• Theprogramswanttosupport different government agencies in establishing their own horizon scanning activitiesandtoprovideahigher-levelstrategiccontexttoallrespectivegovernmentinitiatives.

• Theprogramsaimtobuildnetworks across professional communitiesandarededicatedtoextendingtheiractivitiestowardotherprofessionalcommunities,particularlyprivatebusinesses,think-tanks,andacademia.

• Theprogramswanttoconnectandcloselycollaboratewiththeacademicworldinordertoguaranteethattheiractivitiesare informed by real expert knowledgeandtosafeguardtheircredibilityandlonger-termreputation.

• Theprogramsneedbroad political supportbecausehorizonscanningisdirectedatgene-ratingnewideas,whichareoftenfoundatthemarginsofcurrentthinkingandmaychallengeconventionalwisdom.Withoutstrongbackingfromseniorpolicy-makers,newinsightswillnottranslateintonovelpolicies.

Executive Summary

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Horizon Scanning in Government

• Theprogramsshouldensurethattheirresults and recommendations have an impact on decisionmaking processes,asnotonlythegovernment,butalsoallotherinvolvedstake-holderswillotherwisesoonloseinterest.

• Theprogramsshouldberegularly repeated and stand on a solid (institutional) footing,ashorizonscanningnotonlytakestimetounderstandintermsofitspurposesandmeth-ods,butisbydefinitionanactivitythatonlypaysoffinthelongerterm.

3. The prospects for horizon scanning in Switzerland

InSwitzerland,horizonscanningthatcutsacrosspolicyareasandgovernmentdepartmentsisnotyetdeeplyanchoredinthepoliticalandadministrativesystem.However,theForwardPlan-ningStaffoftheFederalChancelleryandthe“RisksSwitzerland”projectoftheFOCPcouldserveasinstitutionalstartingpointsforSwisshorizonscanningactivities.Basedonthereviewedcountryexperiences,thestudyconceivesthreemodelsofhowthiscouldberealized:

• Model1presentsaproject-oriented approachtodetectandevaluatefuturetrendsandissuesrelevanttoSwitzerlandacrosspolicyareasintheformofabroadstrategicscan.

• Model2targetstheideaofaSwiss horizon scanning center of excellencethatprimarilypro-videsmethodicalandstrategicsupporttothefederalofficestohelpthemestablishtheirownhorizonscanningcapacities.

• Model3focusesonissuesthatareparticularlyrelevant to Swiss national security.Itcon-nectsexpertsandgroupsofinterestsacrosspolicydomains–includingthosewithoutestablishedlinkstothetraditionalsecuritypolicycommunity–inordertoprepareforemergingthreats.

Thevariousfeaturesofthesemodelsmaybeassembledinmanywaystomeettheneedsofthegovernmentandtheadministration.ThreerecommendationsmaystimulatethediscussiononthenextstepsrequiredtodevelophorizonscanninginSwitzerland:

• Astakeholders’needs assessmentshouldbeconductedtoidentifytheneeds,concerns,andwishesofstakeholderswithinand–later–beyondthefederaladministration.

• An inventory of topical, methodical, and process expertsshouldbepreparedandfacilitatedbyestablishingworking communitiestomakeexpertiseeasilyandrapidlyaccessible.

• Theideaandbenefitsofhorizonscanningmustbeactively communicated, promoted, and disseminatedtowin(political)supportingovernment,parliament,andthepublic.

Governmentsareconfrontedwithanincreasinglyintercon-nected and dynamically changing world. Although moreinformationfrommoresourcesisavailableandbetterac-cessiblethaneverbefore,informationoverloadmay,para-doxically, also contribute to theperception thatpolitical,economic,andsocialenvironmentsarecomplexandhardlycontrollable.Theabundanceofinformationmayleadtoadeficiencyofattentionthatcomplicatestheprocessoffilter-ingoutthecriticalsignals fromthedistractingnoise.Ac-quiringreliableinformationisamajorchallengeforanalystsanddecision-makers,andtheirkeytaskthereforeistotakeactivenoticeof factsanddata (notonly toobserve thempassively)andtodevelopnewwaysofthinkingaheadandplanningstrategicallytocopebetterwithuncertainfuturethreats and opportunities. This task requires developinglong-term,focused,andsustainablepolicies:

• Long-term policies are required to tackle many oftoday’smostpressingchallenges,whose (negative)consequencesmayonlybefeltinthe(distant)future.Nevertheless,day-to-daypoliticsisoftendominatedbyshort-termconsiderations,anddecision-makersfrequently fail to look ahead and act beyond thecurrentday.1Inturn,theyareoftenunderintensepressure,e.g.,fromthemediaorpowerfulinterestgroups,toproduceperceptibleresultsrapidly,andmayfacedifficultchoicesbetween(personal)short-termobjectivesandpoliciesthatarecommensuratetothelong-termnatureofmanyrisks.

• Focused policies target the most important issuesin order to expend scarce resources in the mosteffective way. The question “which issue is mostrelevant?” can only be answered if there is agree-ment on the goals to be pursued. While thecorporate world follows the fairly specific goal ofincreasingacompany’svalue,divergentvaluesandinterests frequently prevent consensus on overar-chinggoalsinpolitics.Despitetheobviousdifficul-ties,rankingandprioritizingtheissuesthatarerel-evanttooursocietiesinasensiblemannerremainsacriticaltask.

• Sustainable policiesacknowledgethatquickfixesandhastysolutionsrarelysolvecomplexproblems.In-stead, policies that are evidence-based, adequatelybalancedbetween(conflicting)objectives,andhaveconsistentpoliticalandfinancialsupportfromthosebearingpoliticalresponsibilityareindispensableforfuture-orientedpolicymaking.

1 Kreibich(2006),p.10.

Theapparentlackofstrategicallyorientedpoliciesinmanycountriesaswellasattheregionalandgloballevelsmaybecomeevenmoreaccentuatedinthefutureifcomplexityandthedynamicsofchangecontinuetoincrease.Havingsaidthat,however,somegovernmentshavestartedtoac-knowledgetheseshortcomingsandexplorenewwaysandmeanstofacilitatebettergovernance.Thisstudypresentstheconceptofhorizonscanningasoneparticularapproachthathasrecentlygainedmoreprominenceinthiscontext.It is basedon thepremise that a sporadic assessmentofthepolitical,economic,technological,orecologicalenvi-ronment,basedontheintuitionofthoseinchargeashasbeen thepractice in thepast, doesnot suffice anymore.Instead,thisstudyproposesalternativewaystostrengthentheabilityofgovernmentstodealsystematicallyandcom-prehensivelywithuncertaintiesandtohelppolicy-makerstoenvisageandrealizethepoliciestheydesire.

In order to explore the opportunities of horizon scan-ning,theSwissFederalOfficeforCivilProtectiontaskedtheCenterforSecurityStudiesatETHZurichwithpro-ducingthisstudy.ThestudywasconductedbetweenJulyandDecember2008andcovers,inaccordancewiththemandate,thefollowingissues:

1. It outlines the concept and purpose of horizonscanning(chapter two),

2. Itpursuesareviewofthreecountriesthathaveal-readygainedexperienceswithhorizonscanninginordertoshowhowitcanbeimplementedinprac-tice and identify the salient features and successfactors(chapter three),

3. It describes the situation in Switzerland and de-velops three models – based on the country ex-periences – of how horizon scanning could beimplemented in the Swiss federal administration(chapter four).

Methodologically,thestudydrawsonresearchliterature,relevantgovernmentdocuments,andconferencereports(seetheappendicesforfurtherdetails).Inaddition,ex-ternalexpertswereconsultedtoprovidefeedbackandtoensure that thecountry reviewscorrectly reflect the re-spectiveprogramsandactivities.2

2 Theauthorwouldliketothankthefollowingpersonsfortheirvaluablefeedback:CalvinChongandPatrickNathan(NationalSecurityCoordinationCentre,Singapore),AlunRhydderch(UKForesightProgrammeandHorizonScanningCentre,DepartmentforInnovation,UniversitiesandSkills,London),andBernardVerlaan(DutchMinistryofEducation,CultureandScience,TheHague).Preliminaryresultsofthisstudywere

1 Introduction

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Introduction

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Horizon Scanning in Government

Theconceptofhorizonscanningisonlyvaguelydefinedandisuseddifferentlybyvariousactors.Generally,itre-ferstotwobroadmeanings:

• In anarrow sense, it stands for apolicy tool thataimstogathersystematicallyabroadrangeofin-formation and evidence about upcoming issues,trends, advancements, ideas, and events in anorganization’spolitical,economic,social,techno-logical,orecologicalenvironment.

• Inawidersense,itisusedasacollectivetermforamultitudeofso-calledforesight activitiesthataimtoimprovethecapabilitiesoforganizationstodealwithanuncertainandcomplexfuture.

This study refers to both meanings: It initially charac-terizes horizon scanning as a policy tool for detectingemergingissuesandtrendsthatmaydeviatefromexist-ingdevelopments.Sucha limitedunderstanding,how-ever, would not generate the envisaged strategic capa-bilitiesandonlybeoflimitedusetogovernmentpolicy.Inordertounfolditsentirestrengths,horizonscanningmustbeembeddedintoamorecomprehensiveforesightprocessthatbuildsnetworksacrossprofessionalcommu-nities,enablesbroad-basedsociallearningprocesses,andfeedstheresultsintothepolicyprocess.Inotherwords:Thisstudyfirstcovershorizonscanninginamoreinstru-mentalsense(chapter2.1)beforeitputsitinthecontextofacomprehensiveforesightprocess(chapter2.2).

Figure 1: The two meanings of horizon scanning

discussedwithrepresentativesoftheFederalOfficeforCivilPro-tection,theFederalChancellery(SectionPlanningandStrategyandFederalCrisisManagementTraining),andthearmasuissedefenseprocurementagencyataworkshopinBerneon28October2008.Theauthorwouldliketothankallparticipantsfortheirmosthelpfulcommentsandideas.

2.1 Horizon scans as policy tools

Horizon scanning as a policy tool aims to broadly ex-ploreinformationaboutnovelandunexpectedissuesandtrendsaswellaspersistentproblemsinanorganization’sexternalenvironment.3Horizonscansfacilitateasystem-atic and structured evidence-gatheringprocess andpro-vide an understanding what is happening and why inanorganization’senvironments,whatprocessesproduceand support change, the relations between these proc-esses,themainactorsandtheirobjectives,theanticipationofchange,andtherequiredcapacitiesandresources.4

Horizon scanning

• conceptually encompasses different modes of scanning,

• covers various external environments of an organization,

• is usually a long-term and continuous process,

• draws on an eclectic range of sources,

• and systematically collects and documents the detected evidence.

Box 1: Characteristics of horizon scanning

In conceptual terms, horizon scanning includes both the rather passive mode of looking at information (viewing) and the more active mode of looking for information (searching)accordingtothecomplexitythatisadaptedtoanorga-nization’sparticularneeds.5Passivelyscanningtheenvi-ronment is ongoing at an almost unconscious level byexposingindividualstolargeamountsofinformationfornospecificpurposeandwithoutspecificationsorcriteriafortheselectionofsources.Itmaysensitize individualsto emerging trends and support organizations in deve-loping peripheral vision, but the key signals of changeareprobablyomitted.Whenthemodeofscanningturnstoactivesearching,bycontrast,thesourcesarescannedforspecificpurposes,andconcretequestionsconcerningtherelevanceandthepossibleimpactofparticularissuesareasked.Whilescanningmayinitiallybeperformedina relatively limited and unstructured way, it may later

3 Aguilar(1967);Choo(2001);forthefollowing,seealsothedefinitionsofUKforesightpractitionersreferring totheUKChiefScientificAdvisersCommittee.

4 Forstudiesonhorizonscanning,cf.forinstanceAguilar(1967),Choo(2002,1999),Lang(1995),orMorrison(1992).

5 Choo(2002),p.84.

2 The Concept of Horizon Scanning

Chapter 2.1: Horizon Scans as

Policy Tools

Chapter 2.2: Horizon Scanning as a Comprehen-

sive Foresight Process

turnintoamoredeliberateandplannedefforttoacquiremoreinformationaboutthemainfeaturesandpotentialimpactsofagivenissue.

Horizon scanning covers various external environments of an organization.Eachorganizationhasanimmediateenvi-ronmentthatrelatesdirectlytoitsactivitiesandisshapedbyindividualcircumstancesandorganizationalspecifics;butitisalsoembeddedintoalargermacro-environmentwhere changes may directly or indirectly affect the or-ganization.Thechangeswithinthismacro-environmentmayoriginatefromamultitudeofareassuchastechno-logical advancements, economic trends,orpoliticalde-velopments.Consequently,theissuesareoftenclassifiedaccordingtobasictaxonomies6tofacilitatethescanningprocessandtoimprovetheintegrationoftheresultsintosubsequentpolicydevelopment.

Horizon scanning goes beyond the usual timeframes of plan-ning activities. Although some scanning activities aredrivenbyimmediateconcernsofanemergingthreat,thetimehorizonofscanningusuallyreferstoamid-orlong-termperspective,asitaimstoprovideearlyindicationsofprospectivefuturedevelopmentsbeforetheyactuallyap-pearontheagendaofpolicy-makers.7Also,withregardtofrequency,horizonscanningistypicallyacontinuousprocess that regularly covers the entire macro-environ-ment. Although there are irregular scans, for examplethoseinstitutedinreactiontoacrisis,orperiodicscans,for example in the form of an annual review, horizonscanningismostsuitablefordiscoveringunexpectedandemerging trends and issues if it is executed on an on-goingbasis.

The user of horizon scanning wants to focus on the margins of current thinking and is therefore eclectic in terms of choosing sources.Anexcellentstartingpointtodetect informationistocapitalizeonpersonalcontactsandnetworks.Peopleworkinginthesameareaoftenhavesimilarinterestsandsharein-depthknowledgeoftheirrelevantfields.Thisap-proachmayalsohaveitsdrawbacks,however,assubject-matter experts may tend to confirm each other in theiropinions and may not be well prepared for recognizingemergingissuesthattranscendtheirknownreferenceareas.Experienceshowsthatchangeoftenstartsoutsideofestab-lishedcirclesandattheinterfaceof(scientific)disciplines;itisthereforeessentialtolistentothethoughtsandideasofoutsidersandlateralthinkersandtoestablishadiverse,

6 AcommonlyknownanalyticaltoolisSTEEP,whichisusedtostructuretheidentifiedenvironmentalfactorssystematicallyalongtheanalyticalcategoriesofsocietal,technological,eco-nomic,ecological,orpoliticalfactors.

7 Infuturesstudies,amid-termtimehorizoncorrespondstoaboutfiveto20years;“long-term”means20to50years.

multidisciplinary, and international network of experts.Another source of information is the systematic evalua-tionandmonitoringofmediaproductsofanykind:news-papers, periodicals, scholarly journals, books, conferencepapers, specializedmagazines of industry or professionalassociations, radio, television,photographs, etc.Further-more,manysourcesof informationthatwerepreviouslyverydifficulttotrackarenowavailableinelectronicformaton the internet and in onlinedatabases (containing, forexample,scholarlyorstatisticalinformation)andcaneasilybeexploited.Overall,itiscrucialtorefertoaverydiversesetofsourcesinordertoavoidasituationwheretheonlyinformationtobeconsideredisself-referentialorconfirmspre-existingassumptions.

Teams of scanners collect and systematically document the de-tected data and information from the scanned sources and make them available to other analysts and decision-makers. Themostcommonmethodicalapproachistocreatedatabasesor–morerecently–web-basedapplicationsthatallowtheanalysttoassemblefactsandinformationabouttheidenti-fiedtrendsandissuesinastandardizedformat.Thisproce-dureallowslargenumbersofpeopletosimultaneouslyfeedin information aboutpotential trends anddevelopments,whilethecollecteddatacaninstantlybeevaluated,assessed,andvisualizedbythepeopleinchargeofconductingtheho-rizonscans.Thecountryreportsinchapterthreewillpointtoexamplesofhowthisprocessofcollecting,documenting,anddisseminatinginformationtakesplaceinpractice.8

8 Alotcanbelearntfromstudyingthestructuresandproce-duresfortheearlydetectionofissuesincorporations;foranin-depthoverviewofcompaniesintheinsurancebusiness,seeKäslin(2008);seealsoKrystekandMüller-Stewens(1999),pp.509–13.

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The Concept of Horizon Scanning

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Horizon Scanning in Government

2.2 Horizon scanning as part of a comprehensive foresight process

Horizonscanstodetectandcollectevidenceaboutanorganization’s external environment constitute onlyone(yetimportant)partofacomprehensiveforesightprocess, which the following paragraphs describe inmore detail. Foresight is defined as a deliberate at-tempt tobroadenthe“boundariesofperception”:9 Itexpands the awareness of emerging issues and situa-tionsandsupportsstrategicthinkingbydevelopingarange of possible ways of how the future could un-fold.10Aforesightprocesscanberoughlydividedintothreephases:11

• The early detection of emerging issues by usinghorizonscansaspresentedinchapter2.1,

• thegeneration of foresightbyundertakingfuturesprojects,

• andthedevelopment of policyoptionsbyapplyingscenariotechniques.

9 Majoretal.(2001),p.93.

10 Voros(2003),p.12;Horton(1999),p.5;Slaughter(1995),p.xvii.Anextendedconceptualizationanddefinitionof(strategic)foresightcanbefoundinMüller(2008),pp.17–26.

11 ThisprocessisadaptedfromSchultz(2006),pp.5f.;Voros(2003),pp.14ff.;Majoretal.(2001),pp.92f.;andHorton(1999),pp.6ff.Müller(2008),p.42,underlinesthataforesightprocesscanbeconceptualizedandimplementedinvariousmanners;however,basedonanextensiveliteraturereview,heeventuallyconcludesthatthemajorityofscholarsfollowsanuniformlogic,whichdistinguishesbetweenthethreedescribedprocessphases(p.59f.).Thisisobviouslyasimplifiedversionofaforesightprocess;ifitweretobeintroducedinanorganization,amoredifferentiatedapproachwouldbeneeded.

Thefollowingfigure2isagraphicalrepresentationofthethreephases,describingtheessentialideaofeachphase,themainpolicytool,andhowinformationistransformedintoknowledgethatultimatelyleadstonewinsightsandpoliticalaction.

Early detection (phase 1) addresses the identification and con-tinuous monitoring of all relevant issues and developments in an organization’s external environment.Theconceptualideaistoestablishaninformation-gatheringsystemthatdetects discontinuities in trends hitherto perceived asstableandunchanging.12Thesediscontinuitiesareusuallyforeshadowedintheformof“weaksignals”13thatindicatechangeslongbeforetheybecomegeneralknowledgeandcometotheattentionofpolicy-makers.Methodically,itbuildsonhorizonscansasintroducedinthechapter2.1andrestsontheassumptionthatthecontinuingaccumu-lationofinformationallowstheobservertoextractmoreexplicitevidence.Earlydetectionisexpectedtoimprovetheflexibilityofgovernanceasitreduces“surpriseeffects”andincreasestheroomformaneuverbygivingdecision-makerssufficientleadtimetotaketheappropriatecoun-termeasuresagainstemergingthreats.

12 KrystekandMüller-Stewens(1999),pp.501–6;seealsoAguilar(1967).

13 Ansoff(1975).

Figure 2: Three phases of a comprehensive foresight process (own illustration based on Schultz (2006) and Horton (1999)).

Phase Early Detection(phase 1)

Generating Foresight(phase 2)

Developing Policy Options(phase 3)

Description Identification and Monitoring of Issues, Trends, Developments,

and Changes

Assessment and Understanding of Policy Challenges

Envisioning Desired Futures and Policy Action

Value Chain

Policy tool Horizon Scans Futures Projects Scenarios

Information Knowledge Insights Action

The generation of foresight (phase 2) addresses the assessment and understanding of selected policy challenges.Afterinfor-mation is scanned,collected,filtered,andprocessed, thegatheredevidenceisinterpretedtoteaseout“theimplica-tionsofthevariouspossiblefutureviewsforaparticularorganization”.14Specificissuesthatmaybecomemoreim-portantinthefutureareselectedandstudiedcomprehen-sively.Theselectionofissuesisbasedonspecificcriteria:theyshould,forexample,haveahighpotentialimpactonsocietyandtheeconomy, theymaybetriggeredbynewtechnologies,ortheymayrepresentareaswherechangeiscomplexandrapidandfuturedevelopmentshighlyuncer-tain.15Anothercommonlyfoundimportantselectioncri-terionisthepoliticalsupportprovidedbythegovernmentandotherimportantdecision-makerstoensurethatnewinsights will later lead to political action. Such “futuresprojects”mustbebasedonthebestavailablescientificandotherevidenceandtrytocaptureaparticularissueinallitsrelevantdimensions.Several futuresprojectsmaybeon-goingsimultaneouslyandtheymayaddressabroadrangeof policy areas.Their ultimate aim is to draw a realisticpicture of the “present implications of possible futureevents”.16

The insights generated through futures projects lead to the development of policy options (phase 3). Asthereisnosuchthingasthefuture,avarietyofpotentialfuturesisexplored,

14 Horton(1999),p.7.

15 ThecountryreportsontheUKForesightProgrammeandtheNetherlandsHorizonScanProjectwillillustratehowthisprocessworksinpractice.

16 Slaughter(1995),p.48.

becauseunderconditionsof“heighteneduncertainty”,thebestcourseofactionistolookforwardpurposefullyandtopresent“alternativescenarios”.17Scenariosmaydistinguishbetweenpossible,plausible,probable,andpreferablefuturesascapturedbythe“futurescone”(seefigure3below):18

• Possible futuresincludeeverythingwecanimagine,regardlessofhowunlikelyitmaybe,andmayin-volvetheresultsofknowledgethatwedonotyethave,butthatmaybeavailableinthefuture.

• Plausible futures have a reasonable probabilityofoccurring,as theyare in linewith thecurrentgeneralknowledgeandunderstandingofhowtheworldoperates.

• Probable futures are likely tohappen, as they arelargelyextrapolationsof thepresentandthepastintothefuture.

• Finally, in contrast to the previously describedfutures,thepreferable futuresarenotaproductof(non-)existingknowledge,butarebasedonsub-jectivejudgmentsandvalues,astheydescribetheoutcomesdesiredbyindividualsororganizations.

17 Nye(1994),pp.88and93.

18 SeeforthisdistinctionVoros(2003),pp.16f.,withfurtherreading.

Now

Time

Potential

Preferable

Plausible

Possible

Probable

Figure 3: The “futures cone” (illustration taken from Voros (2003), p. 16)

11

The Concept of Horizon Scanning

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Horizon Scanning in Government

Preferable futures are envisioned by crafting normativescenariosthatexploreaspectsofdesiredpolicies.However,formulatingabroadlysharedconsensusonsuchpreferredfuturesisrarelyfeasibleinpublicpolicy,becausedelibera-tionsamongmanystakeholderswithverydiverseinterestsandvaluesalmostinevitablyleadtocontradictoryrecom-mendations.19Consequently,theconstructionofnorma-tivescenariosshouldbeunderstoodasanopendiscoursethatenablesinteractionandcommunicationamongpar-ticipantsandeventuallyleadstoamutualunderstandingofeachother’snotionsofapreferablefuture.

2.3 Key insights and messages

What are the more general practical contributions ofhorizon scanning and foresight to policymaking? Theprocessdescribedaboveresults implicitlyintwofunc-tions,whicharelinkedtothetwodifferentmeaningsofhorizonscanning.20

The first function is to inform policy by providing knowl-edge and new ideas that result in a tangible output such as reports, policy briefs, or scenarios about emerging issues.Atitsheart arehorizon scans as theywere introduced inchapter2.1:theanalyticaltaskofsystematicallygather-inganddocumentingdataand factsaboutpotentiallyrelevant trends and developments in the perceptiblepolitical, economic, social, or technological environ-mentsofanorganization.Theseabstracttermsbecomeclearer in the context of a closer examination of thegovernment scans described in the next chapter – forexample,theDeltaandSigmaScansperformedbytheUnitedKingdomForesightProgramme.While suchaproduct-oriented approachhaslongbeenconsideredthecore purpose of horizon scanning, it has increasinglybeencriticizedasbeingtoostaticandnotcontributingsufficientlytoasociallearningprocessthatenablesthegenerationoffuture-orientedpolicies.

19 SeeHideg(2007),pp.41f.

20 ThesearethetwocorefunctionsidentifiedbytheFOR-LEARNproject,whichaimstodevelopforesighttheoryandpracticeinEuropeandisfinancedbytheDirectorateGeneralforResearch(C4)oftheEuropeanCommission.Cf.DaCostaetal.(2008),pp.372ff.and376f.;seealsoMüller(2008),pp.42–5andVoros(2003),p.15.

Consequently, the focus has now shifted to a second function of foresight that facilitates the development of innovative policies.Foresightisconceivedasalearningprocessthatsupportstheenvisioningofdesiredfutures.Itisclaimedthat the creation of linkages, networks, or knowledgeflowsbetweenpeopleandorganizationsaccountsforthereal strengths of foresight. In other words: Policymak-ing can be improved not only through concrete prod-ucts, but also through enhanced communication, ex-tendednetworks, coordinatedpreferences, and changesinthinking.Suchimprovementsallowpolicy-makerstomakebetter informed choices, to improve thepoliticalresponsiveness,andtofacilitatepolicydevelopment.Thisprocess-oriented perspective on horizon scanning is cap-tured by the comprehensive foresight process as it wasdescribed inchapter2.2; the followingcountryreviewsgivesubstantiveinsightsintohowthedifferentphasesareconnectedinpractice.

Thepotentialbenefitsofhorizonscanningandforesightare therefore twofold: The traditional product-orientedfocusonthe“deliveryofinformationonfuturedevelop-ments as a basis for priority-setting” on the one hand,andthefocusonaninnovativereflexivemutuallearningprocessamongpolicy-makersthatstimulates“theemer-genceofcommonvisions”ontheotherhand.21

21 DaCostaetal.(2008),pp.373and376.

Horizonscanningthatdeliberatelycutsacrossgovernmentdepartmentsandpolicyareasisaquiterecentphenome-non.Traditionally,suchactivitieswereratherfocusedonaparticularpolicyfieldandinstitutionallyattachedtothere-spectivegovernmentdepartments.22Pasthorizonscanningandforesightprojectswerestronglyfocusedonissuesrela-tedtoscience,technology,andinnovationpolicy.AsurveyoftheInternationalCouncilforScience,forinstance,givesanoverviewofforesightexercisesinmorethan20industri-alized,transition,anddevelopingcountriessince1995;23similarly,arecentreportoftheSwissCenterforScienceandTechnologyStudiesprovidesanoverviewofforesightstudies in39countriesworldwide.24These surveys showthatcountrieshaveappliedquitedifferentconceptionsofforesight,particularlyintermsofhowbroadlythepolicyareastobecoveredareconceived:whilemoststudieshaveanarrowfocusonscienceandtechnology,somehavebe-guntointegratesocietaloreconomicissuesanddevelop-ments–atrendthatislikelytofirmupinthefuture.

Apart from science and technology, many countries– including Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Japan,New Zealand, or the UK – also focus on other policyareas suchaspublichealth,25national security,26or theenvironment.27Furthermore, initiativeson the interna-tionalleveltrytocombinenational-levelexperiences(forexample,thepilotproject“JointHorizon”conductedbythe ForSociety ERA-Net28) and international organiza-

22 Foranoverview,seeERA-Net(2007),p.3f.

23 TheInternationalCouncilforScience(2002).SpecificexamplesincludetheFrenchprojectonkeytechnologies(http://www.lsi.industrie.gouv.fr/observat/innov/carrefour/so_exer.htm)ortheJapaneseNISTEP-project(http://www.nistep.go.jp).

24 CenterforScienceandTechnologyStudies(2007a);seealsotheAnnextothereport:CenterforScienceandTechnologyStudies(2007b.)

25 ExamplesarethejointprojectofthegovernmentsofAustraliaandNewZealandtoassessthepotentialimpactofemergingtechnologiesonpublichealthsystems(http://www.horizonscan-ning.gov.au)orthesimilaractivitiesinCanada(http://www.cadth.ca/index.php/en/hta/programs/horizon-scanning).

26 Examplesinthedomainofnationalsecurityincludethe“DCDCGlobalStrategicTrendsProgramme2007-2036”oftheUnitedKingdomMinistryofDefence(2007)orthereport“SecurelyintotheFuture–MinistryofDefenceStrategy2025”oftheFinnishMinistryofDefence(2006).

27 See,forexample,thehorizonscanningactivitiesoftheUKGov-ernmentDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs:http://horizonscanning.defra.gov.uk.

28 SeethewebsiteoftheForSocietyERA-Net:http://www.eranet-forsociety.net.

tionssuchastheOrganisationforEconomicCo-opera-tionandDevelopment(OECD)haveinitiatedprojectstoexploreinnovationsincountryriskmanagement.29

Onlyrecently,however,havesomegovernmentsexplic-itly started to experiment with cross-cutting horizonscanningtorespondtotherequirementsofanincrea-singly interconnected and complex world. Becausethereareonlyfewcontemporarychallengesthatcanbeconfinedtoonepolicyarea,governmentshaverealizedthatasingle-issuefocusisinmanyinstancesnotappro-priateanymore.Inthefollowing,thereportconcentrateson three countries that have been at the forefront ofthistrend:

• theUnitedKingdom(UK)ForesightProgrammestartedin2004,

• the Singapore Risk Assessment and HorizonScanningsysteminitiatedin2005,

• and theNetherlandsHorizonScanProject thatbeganthesameyear.

Thefollowingsectionswillreviewtheirexperiencesbyoutlininghowtheprogramsevolved,howtheyarein-stitutionally anchored in the respective administrativestructures, what they do and what they deliver. Afterhaving reviewed these cases, we will draw some pre-liminary conclusions by connecting the informationandhighlightingsomeofthesalientfeaturesofhorizonscanningthatmightalsobeconsideredsuccessfactors.

3.1 United Kingdom Foresight Programme

TheUKForesightProgrammeisagoodexampleoftheuseofstrategicscansaspolicytoolsandillustrateswhatacomprehensiveforesightprocesscouldlooklike.TheProgrammeiswidelyconsideredtobeeffectiveininfluen-cingpolicymaking,anditsstaffareregularlyconsultedto provide support in establishing similar programsabroad. It aims to bridge the gap between the longandtheshort termbyemployingthe toolsandmeth-ods of futures analysis. Based on (scientific) evidencefrom a multidisciplinary perspective, it develops ro-bustandresilientstrategiestomeetmajorpublicpolicychallenges.

29 SeethewebsiteoftheOECDInternationalFuturesProgramme,particularlytheprojectsonriskmanagement:http://www.oecd.org/department/0,3355,en_2649_35014780_1_1_1_1_1,00.html.

3 Review of Country Experiences

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3.1.1 Evolution and institutional arrangements

TheearlyrootsoftheForesightProgrammegobacktothe1960s,whenanewfocusonscienceandtechnology(S&T)policyaddressedthewidelyrecognizedinnovationproblemintheUK.Theemergenceofinformationtechnologyandthegrowingawarenessthatdemandsforincreasedinvest-ments in research and development are growing year byyearforcedpolicy-makerstomakechoicesbetweencom-petingdemandsandtosettherightprioritiesinlightofthecountry’seconomicrequirements.30Intheearly1990s,aninterdepartmentalworkinggroupcommissionedfouraca-demicandprivateinstitutionstodevelopmethodologiestoidentifyandprioritizeemergingtechnologiesofimportancetotheUK.Theresultingvisionof“keytechnologies”wasreported to the newly established Office of Science andTechnology(OST,locatedintheUKCabinetOffice)andtheDepartmentofTradeandIndustryandpavedthewaytowhatin1994becametheUKForesightProgramme.31

The Foresight Programme is often described as havingevolved through three different cycles. The first cycleexplored emerging opportunities in different areas oftheeconomyand, subsequently, focusedontrendsandforesightprojectsonspecifictopics.32TheprogramhadasubstantialinputonS&Tpolicyasitinformedprioritiesand action taken by a wide range of government bod-ies, universities, and private companies. Furthermore,the program also had important strengths in shapingprocess-related developments by forging new networksandinclusivepartnershipsthroughwideandhighlevelsofstakeholderparticipation.33

TheProgrammeentereditssecondcycleinApril1999,when it introduced thematic panels to tackle broadissueswith implications for S&Tpolicy across sectoralboundaries.Italsofurtheredthenetworkingelementbyinvolvingeven largernumbersofpeople.However, theresultingreportsdidnotfacilitatetheextractionofcohe-rent messages and identifying critical actions. The suc-cessful priority-setting elements of the first cycle hadbecomelessevident.Overall,theobjectiveswerenotsuf-ficiently focused, and a lack of consistent research andmethodologicalrigorresultedinalackofimpact.34

The third cycle, initiated in 2002, turned the focus oftheForesightProgrammeawayfromcoveringthewhole

30 Miles(2005),pp.2–6.

31 Miles(2005),p.7.

32 Schultz(2006),pp.3f.

33 Miles(2005),pp.9–12.

34 Miles(2005),pp.13–6.

range of emerging technologies and narrowed it downona fewspecificareas.Consequently, itwasno longerdirectedatpriority-setting,butaimedtoinformpolicy-makersaboutimportanttopicstoincreasetheUK’sover-all exploitationof science.35ThisdevelopmentwidenedtheProgramme’sscopebyliftingtherestrictiontoS&Tpolicy and envisaged a proper balance between moretechnology-oriented projects and projects where inno-vation entails opportunities to tackle societal, environ-mental,orotherproblems.Finally,inJuly2004,theUKTreasurypublishedthe“ScienceandInnovationInvest-mentFramework2004–2014”,whichspecificallycalledfortheestablishmentofacenterofexcellenceinhorizonscanning:36

AllGovernmentdepartmentswillbeusingsophisti-cated scientifichorizon-scanning techniques, linkedboth to their ownpolicyhorizon scanning, that ofother departments, and to the OST horizon-scan-ningcentre.[…]theGovernment’sChiefScientificAdviser[…]willbuildupasinglecentreofexcellenceinscienceandtechnologyhorizonscanning.Thiswillbeco-ordinatedbyOST’sForesightDirectorateandwillbringtogetherhighcalibreindividualsprovidedand resourced by other Government Departments,ResearchCouncilsandtheprivatesector.

TheUKHorizonScanningCentre (HSC)beganworkinDecember2004andaimsto“feeddirectlyintocross-government priority setting and strategy formation,improving Government’s capacity to deal with cross-departmentalandmulti-disciplinarychallenges”.37

Horizonscanningandforesightactivitiesarewidespreadin the UK government. A variety of departments haveestablishedtheirownprogramsandseveralhaveincludedhorizonscans,suchastheMinistryofDefence,theDe-partmentofEnvironment,Food,andRuralAffairs,theDepartmentofHealth,theNationalHealthService,andtheDepartmentforBusiness,EnterpriseandRegulatoryReform(BERR).SomesuchasBERR,theHomeOffice,theCivilContingenciesSecretariat,andtheMinistryofJustice have used the support of the newly establishedHSC to initiate respective projects.38 The governmentrequires alldepartments to “ensure that adequatehori-zon scanningprocedures are inplace […]andhorizonscanningevidenceisappropriatelyconsideredand,wherenecessary,actedupon”.39Consequently,theHSCisnot

35 Miles(2005),pp.16f.

36 UnitedKingdomHMTreasury(2004),pp.115and117.

37 UnitedKingdomHMTreasury(2004),p.15.

38 Schultz(2006),p.4.

39 UnitedKingdom(2005),p.4.

intendedtoreplacehorizonscanningindepartments,butratherto“provideahigher-levelstrategiccontexttothoseotheractivities,interactingwithandinformingthem”.40

The UK Foresight Programme is part of the Govern-mentOfficeofScience,whichislocatedintherecentlycreated Department for Innovation, Universities andSkills (DIUS).41 It isheadedbytheGovernmentChiefScientific Adviser (GCSA).42 The GCSA is responsibletotheprimeministerandcabinetfortheoverallqualityofscientificadvicewithingovernmentandforprovidingpersonaladvicetothemonscientificandsciencepolicyissues.TheGCSAoverseestheForesightProgrammeandsecurescoordinationandexchangebetweenthedepart-mentalchiefscientificadvisors.

Figure 4: Institutional anchoring of the UK Foresight Programme

AnAdvisoryBoardforForesightwasestablishedinDe-cember2007toadvisetheGCSAonthestrategicdirec-tionoftheForesightProgramme.Itiscomposedofrep-resentativesofthepublic,private,andacademicsectorsandmeetstwiceayeartodiscussfutureprojectsandthefurther development of the HSC. The Foresight Pro-gramme itself isunder the leadershipof adirector and–inadditiontoitspermanentstaffof27–worksmainlywith commissioned external experts who bring in thehighlevelofexpertiseoneithertopicalissuesorfuturestechniquesthatisrequiredformostactivities.Itsannualbudgetisapproximately£3m,ofwhichabout£1mgoestotheHSC.43

40 UnitedKingdomHMTreasury(2004),p.117.

41 FormoreinformationontheDIUS,seethefollowingwebsite:http://www.dius.gov.uk.

42 ThecurrentGCSA(since1January2008)isProfessorJohnBed-dington.

43 FormoreinformationontheForesightProgramme,seethefollowingwebsite:http://www.foresight.gov.uk.ThecurrentDirectorisProfessorSandyThomas.

3.1.2 Program and activities

TheactivitiesoftheForesightProgrammecanbebroadlygroupedintotwocategories:ontheonehand,theFore-sight projects cover specific topics of wide interest; ontheotherhand,theHSCcoversarangeofactivitiestoanalyze emerging risks and opportunities throughoutgovernment.

Foresight projectsArollingprogramofthreeorfourforesightprojectsatatimewasestablishedinthethirdcycle.Theycorrespondto what was termed “futures projects” in chapter 2.2andillustratehowforesightmaybegenerated.Theaimis to createhigh-qualityoverviewsof a given issue andtodevelopa visionofhow theUKcanmeet the chal-lengesthatareraised.Eachprojectlastsbetween18and24months,yet itshouldhavea longer-termimpactbyraisingawareness,offeringpolicyrecommendations,andestablishing networks among professionals within andoutsideofgovernmentwhocantranslatetherecommen-dationsintopolicy.44

Apotential foresightprojectmusteitherdealwithsomeimportantcurrentissuethatscience,technology,thesocialsciences,andeconomicscouldhelpaddress,oracurrentaspectofscienceortechnologythatislikelytohavewiderpotentialinthefuture.45Ineachtopic,prognosiscoversarangeofatleasttenyearsinareaswherethefuturedirec-tionof change is rapid, current trends are uncertain, ordifferenttrendsmayconverge.Atopicmustnotduplicateworktakingplaceelsewhere,musthavepotentialoutcomesthatcanleadtospecificactions,mustbemultidisciplinary,andmustbebackedbyacommitmentfromthepotentialbeneficiaries toensure that theywant tohear theresultsandactonthem.46Theprojectselectioniscarriedoutinawideandinclusiveconsultativeprocess.Ontheonehand,theforesightteampostsashortlistoftopicsonitswebsiteforcommentsandconsultsscientists,governmentdepart-ments,andcorporations.Ontheotherhand,eachprojectneedsasponsoringministertoensurehigh-levelpoliticalbackingandisonlystartedwhensupportfromallrelevantstakeholdersisguaranteed.

44 Miles(2005),p.17.

45 SeeforthefollowingKingandThomas(2007),p.1701.

46 Elevenprojectshavesofarbeenselected,ofwhicheighthavebeencompleted,namelyDetectionandIdentificationofInfec-tiousDiseases,IntelligentInfrastructureSystems,BrainScience,AddictionandDrugs,CyberTrustandCrimePrevention,ExploitingtheElectromagneticSpectrum,CognitiveSystems,FloodandCoastalDefence,andTacklingObesities:FutureChoices.Threeprojectsarecurrentlyunderinvestigation:LandUseFutures;MentalCapitalandWellBeing;andSustainableEnergyManagementandtheBuiltEnvironment.

Foresight Projects Horizon Scanning Center (HSC)

Prime Minister and Cabinet

Government ChiefScientific Advisor (GCSA)

UK Foresight Programme

Department for Innovation, Universities

and Skills (DIUS)

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Ahigh-levelstakeholdergroupoverseeseachproject.Itischairedbytheministeroftheleaddepartment,isledataseniorlevelbytheGCSA,andcomprisesseniordecision-makersfromrelevantdepartments,researchbodies,andotherorganizations.Aprojectteamofcivilservantsanduptosixexternalleadingexpertsinvitesbetween90and120scientistsfromdifferentdisciplinestojointhepro-jectinordertoreviewthescientificliteratureextensivelyandtoparticipateinworkshopsorseminars.Theultimateobjectiveistoproduceasetofclear,comprehensive,andcomprehensible science reports,often rewrittenby spe-cializedsciencewriterstomakethemaccessibletoalltheinterdisciplinary team members. A range of techniques(suchas scenariobuildingor technologyroadmapping)enablesanalyststotracedifferentpossiblefuturesandtodescribelikelyoutcomesforalternativevisions.47

Itisaprimaryaimofforesightprojectstoinfluencebothpolicy and funding decisions made by government. Ifnobody has committed to listening, it is futile to pro-duce scientific reports. Therefore, the project report iscomplementedbyanactionplantowhichtheministe-rialsponsormustagree.Thisplaniswidelycirculatedtostakeholdersandmadepubliclyavailabletoensurethatthefindingseffectivelyfeedintothepolicyprocess.Fur-thermore, each project has a follow-up meeting a yearaftertheresultsarepublishedtoassesswhetherandhowtheprojectfindingsarebeingaddressedandarehavinganimpact.

Horizon Scanning CentreTheForesightprojectsarecomplementedbyarangeofactivities to identify and analyze emerging risks undertheumbrellaoftheHSC.TheHSCspreadsgoodprac-ticebysupportingindividualdepartmentstocreatetheirown horizon scanning activities; and it has establishedstrategichorizonscanstounderpinexistingactivitiesingovernmentandelsewhere.

The HSC advises government departments on the use of horizon scanning and supports them in creating their own horizon scanning capacity and projects.Whilethelatteraresmallerand tailored to thedepartments’ specificneeds,theymaynonethelessfeedbackintotheForesightPro-grammeby identifyingtopicsworthyofmore in-depthattention.48 More generally, the HSC advises depart-mentsonhowtousetoolsoffuturesanalysisandtoin-tegratethemintostrategicpolicydevelopment.Forthispurpose,atoolkithasbeendevelopedthatintroducesabroadrangeofmethodsanddescribeshowtheycanbe

47 KingandThomas(2007),pp.1701f.;seealsotheForesightProgramme’swebsite.

48 KingandThomas(2007),p.1701.

applied to improve decisionmaking.49 Besides facilita-tingcross-governmentalhorizonscanning,theHSCalsoensuresabroadpublicoutreachandbuildsnetworksoffuturesthinkersandpractitionersinthepublic,private,academic, and other sectors. It established the FuturesAnalysts’Network(FANClub)asaforumwherethosewho have an interest in horizon scanning and futuresanalysis can meet to exchange new ideas, innovativethinking, and good practice. Its meetings are devotedtotopicsasdiverseas“TheRoleofFuturesThinkinginGovernment Strategy”, “Britain’s Future Abroad”, or“EducationandSkillsFutures”.Speakersfromdifferentprofessionalcommunitiesgivepresentations,leadwork-shop sessions, or present case studies with the goal ofstimulatingdiscussion,educatingparticipantsontheuseoffuturestechniques,andaddingvaluetotheForesightProgrammebycapitalizingonpublicinput.

The second essential activity of the HSC is the oversight of two complementary strategic scans, the Delta Scan and the Sigma Scan. These ongoing scans, which are good ex-amplesforthepolicytoolofhorizonscanningasdevel-opedinchapter2.1,lookaheadoverarangeofupto50yearstoprovideanintersectoral informationalbasis forallforesightactivitiesacrossgovernmentandtouncover“contradictionsandambiguities inmapping the turbu-lenceofchange”.50Theresultsarepresentedinso-calledissue papersthatbrieflydescribetheidentifiedtrendsandhowtheymayunfoldinthefuture.Eachissuepaperisclassifiedaccordingtoahierarchicalsystem,startingfromtheclassicSTEEPcategories(e.g.,environment)toado-main(e.g.,climatechange)toasub-domain(e.g.,ozonelayer).Theyprovideanabstractoftheissue,addresspos-sibleimplications,identifyearlyindicators,drivers,andinhibitors,revealparallelstopreviousevents,andprovidefurtherlinksandsources.Furthermore,eachpaperisla-beledwithanumberofso-calledissue markersthatpro-videindicativeinformationaboutthepossiblelikelihood,impact,distribution,severity,anddevelopmenttimeofeachissue.Finally,thepapersareclassifiedintoanumberofgenres,accordingtowhetheranissuepaperrepresentsratheraweaksignal,aforecast,akeydriver,ascenario,orawildcard,inordertoindicatewhatsortofcriticalthink-ingshouldbeappliedbyreadingthepaper.Thesescansarepartof thefirstphaseof a comprehensive foresightprocessandprovideinputforamorein-depthtreatmentinsubsequentphases, for instancebyidentifyingtopicsforforesightprojectsorencouragingpolicy-makersandstrategyteamstodevelopscenariosofpotentialfutures.

49 Thistoolkit“ExploringtheFuture:ToolsforStrategicThinking”isavailableonlineathttp://hsctoolkit.tribalctad.co.uk/.

50 Schultz(2006),p.5.

•The Delta Scan (www.deltascan.org) is an overview of future S&T issues that aim to identify potentially evol- ving future trends. Over 250 S&T experts have contrib-uted to the Delta Scan.

•The Sigma Scan (www.sigmascan.org) is a synthesis of other horizon scanning sources and may be charac-terized as a “scan of scans”. It does not focus exclusi- vely on S&T issues, but covers trends across the full public policy agenda. It draws its information from think-tanks, corporate foresight, governments, academia, NGOs, blogs, mainstream media, or music, depicting the diversity of potential information sour- ces in horizon scanning.51

Box 2: The UK Horizon Scanning Center’s Delta and Sigma Scan

3.1.3 Conclusions

Foresight andhorizon scanninghave established them-selvesasacceptedmethodsandtoolsinformingstrategicpolicymaking in theUKgovernment.While theFore-sightProgrammewas initially centeredonS&Tpolicy–andstillplacesastrongemphasisontheseissues–,ithascontinuallybroadeneditsscope(particularlywiththecreationoftheHSC)andtodayprovidespolicy-makerswithaperspectiveonthefullpublicpolicyagenda.How-ever,theForesightProgrammecannotanswerallpolicyquestions itself, as its staffevidently lacks thenecessarytopicalknowledge.Consequently,eachgovernmentde-partment isobligedto implement itsownresearchandhorizon scanning structures. The centralized ForesightProgrammeonlyworksonprojectsofcross-governmen-tal interest, while the HSC encourages departments toengageinhorizonscanningaspartoftheirownresearchactivity. The institutional link to the GCSA emphasi-zesthatforesightisbasedonscientificevidenceandhasnothing todowith crystal ball gazing. In fact, it is aninstrumentthat linkstheavailableexpertknowledgetoalong-termperspectiveandemployssophisticatedtech-niquesoffuturesanalysistoraisethegovernment’sstra-tegicpolicymakingcapabilities.

51 Bothscansweredevelopedbyexternalcontractors:theDeltaScanbythenon-profitresearchcenterInstitutefortheFuture(http://www.iftf.org),theSigmaScanbytheconsultanciesOutsights(http://www.outsights.co.uk)andIpsosMORI(http://extranet.ipsos-mori.com/horizons/case.shtml).Bothscansarecurrentlybeingrevised.

3.2 Singapore’s Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning

After being affected by a number of strategic surprisesover the last decade, the government of Singapore de-cided to develop risk assessment and horizon scanningcapacitiestobebetterpreparedforemergingthreatsandtodealwiththeminamoresystematicandcoherentway.Singapore’sriskassessmentandhorizonscanningsystemtargetsahorizonoftwotofiveyearsandis focusedonissuesofnationalsecurity,althoughitmaybeextendedtootherareasofpublicpolicy inthe future. Itaimstofacilitate inter-agency collaboration and pulls togetherallpotentiallyrelevantinformationfromwithingovern-mentaswellasfromexternalsourcestoenableeffectiveinformation-andperspective-sharingacrossgovernment.The risk assessment and horizon scanning system is togenerateaddedvalueasitbecomesanessentialpartofthegovernment’sstrategicplanningprocess.52Itencouragesdiversity,isconceivedasalong-terminvestment,andisconceptualizedasaprocessofdiscoverythatmayevolvein parallel with the improved understanding of whatworksbestinSingapore’sparticularcontext.

3.2.1 Evolution and institutional arrangements

The shortcomings of the Singapore government’sapproach to governmental foresight became apparentaroundtheturnofthenewmillennium,whenthecoun-try–andmanyothergovernmentsintheregion–wasaffectedbyanumberofstrategicsurprises.Italreadyhadexperimented with scenario planning since the 1980sandhad,forexample,developedscenariosdealingwithpossibleeconomicshocks.53However,eventssuchastheterroristattacksontheUnitedStates(US)in2001,theplottoattacktheembassiesoftheUS,theUK,andIsraelbased in Singapore by the radical Islamic organizationGema’ahIslamiyahuncoveredinDecember2001,and,mostimportantly,theoutbreakoftheSARSepidemicinthefirsthalfof2003showedthatscenarioplanningonitsowncouldnothelpanticipatestrategicsurprisesinanincreasinglycomplexenvironment.54

52 SeethespeechofProfessorS.Jayakumar,CoordinatingMinisterforNationalSecurity,attheopeningoftheInternationalRiskAssessmentandHorizonScanningSymposium2007atthefollowingwebsite:http://enterpriseinnovator.com/index.php?articleID=10910&sectionID=25.

53 Asaresult,SingaporereactedfasterandmoreeffectivelythanothergovernmentsintheregiontotheAsianfinancialcrisisofthelate1990s.ItsGDPgrowthwaslessaffectedthanwasthecaseinneighboringeconomiessuchasMalaysia,Thailand,andIndonesia.SeeUnitedKingdomGovernmentCabinetOffice(2002),p.53.

54 SingaporeNationalSecurityCoordinationSecretariat(2006),p.66.

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Thegovernment reactedby conducting a comprehensivereview of the national security structures, processes, andmeasures,whichculminatedinthereleaseofanewstrategicframeworkfornationalsecurityinJuly2004.Thisframe-workestablishedanetworkedandcoordinatedapproachtoaddressnationalsecurityissuesandfocusedinparticularontheemergentthreatoftransnationalterrorism.Oneoftheproposedmeasureswastheestablishmentofariskassess-mentandhorizonscanningcapacity.55Suchasystemoughttohavetwokeyobjectives:First,toempowergovernmentineffectivelydetectingweaksignalsand indicatorsofex-ogenousshocks;andsecond,toencourageinter-agencycol-laborationandtofosterinformedanalysis.56

Singapore’s Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning(RAHS)systemisnotaffiliatedwithaparticulargovern-mentdepartment,butispartoftheNationalSecurityCo-ordinationSecretariat(NSCS)withintheprimeminister’soffice. NSCS is under the leadership of a deputy primeministerwhoisconcurrentlythecoordinatingministerfornationalsecurity.57

Itisstructuredintotwomainbranches:theJointCoun-terTerrorismCentre (JCTC),whichprovides strategic

55 SingaporeNationalSecurityCoordinationCentre(2004),pp.39f.

56 AccordingtoapresentationbyAmbassadorLamChuangLeong,entitled“NetworkedGovernmentforWhole-of-NationSecurity:Singapore’sRiskAssessmentandHorizonScanningPro-gramme”,attheEuropeanFuturistsConference,Lucerne,19–21November2007.

57 ThecurrentCoordinatingMinisterforNationalSecurity(sinceSeptember2005)isProfessorS.Jayakumar.

analysisonterroristthreatsandaidsinbuildingthecoun-ter-terrorism capacities of its partner agencies; and theNational Security Coordination Centre (NSCC) withthetripleroleofnationalsecurityplanning,policycoor-dination,andanticipatingstrategicthreats.58

The NSCC itself is composed of three sub-units orgroupsthatareledbydeputydirectors:ThePolicyandInternational Relations Group has the lead in nationalsecurityplanningandpolicyformulation,nationalsecu-rityrelationsandcooperationwithothercountries,andthedevelopmentofpubliceducationplans;thePlansandResourceGroupassistslocalsecuritycommunitiesinca-pacity-building and monitors strategic capability deve-lopment;andtheRiskAssessmentandHorizonScanninggroupprovidestheoverallcoordinationandmanagementoftheRAHSsystem.TheRAHSgroupisthefocalpointforallhorizonscanningandforesightactivities:itisthehomeoftheHorizonScanningCentre(HSC,seebelow)andcoordinatesthevariousotherinstitutionsthatcon-tribute toriskassessmentandhorizonscanning.About22peopleworkontheRAHSprogramasanalystsattheHSC, engineers at the RAHS Experimentation Centre(seebelow),orprogrammanagers.59

58 SingaporeNationalSecurityCoordinationSecretariat(2006),p.58.FormoreinformationontheNSCC,seethefollowingwebsite:http://app-stg.nscc.gov.sg.DirectorsofJCTCandNSCCreporttoPermanentSecretaryforNationalSecurityandIntelligenceCoordinationPeterHo.

59 FormoreinformationontheRAHS,seethefollowingwebsite:http://www.rahs.org.sg.

Figure 5: Structure of policy coordination in the NSCS, (Source: own picture based on Singapore National Security Coordination Secretariat (2006), p. 57, and the following website: http://app-stg.nscc.gov.sg/frmaboutus.asp)

Coordinating Minister for National Security

Permanent Secretary (National Security and Intelligence Coordination)

Joint Counter Terrorism Centre

Prime Minister’s Office Prime Minister

National Security Coordination Centre

Policy and International Relations Group

Plans and Resource Group

Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning

3.2.2 Programs and activities

TheRAHSsystemwasinitiallydevelopedwiththesupportofinternalandexternalcontractors60andhascontinuouslyevolvedsinceitsinceptioninJuly2005.NSCCspearheadsthe development of the conceptual and methodologicalframeworksthatunderpintheRAHSsystem.Itconductsresearch on concepts and methods with regard to riskassessmentandhorizonscanning,workswithotherpart-neragencieswithintheSingaporegovernmentsuchastheStrategicPolicyOfficeandtheCivilServiceCollege,anddrawsontheexpertiseofotherdomainssuchasacademiaand private sector initiatives.61 NSCC helps oversee thegraduate-levelFuturesStudiesprogrambasedinNanyangTechnological University and is involved in organizingseminarsandworkshops,bringinginmethodexpertsandotherspeakerstoexpandthebreadthanddepthoffuture-orientedthinkingwithintheSingaporegovernment.62

BesidesNSCS, theRAHSprogramreliesontwootherinstitutional pillars: the Horizon Scanning Centre andthe RAHS Experimentation Centre, both supportingRAHSincomplementaryways.

Horizon Scanning CentreTheHorizonScanningCentre(HSC)servesastheopera-tionalhuboftheRAHSsystem.Itcoordinatesagovernment-wide information networkof20agenciescoveringcounter-terrorism intelligence, bio-medical and cyber-surveillance,maritimesecurity,andenergysecurity.Information-sharingwithinthenetworkisfacilitatedbyaServiceOrientedAr-chitecture(SOA),whichisagoodexampleofhowthere-sultsofstrategicscansaredocumentedinatechnologicallyadvancedway.Thisgovernment-widenetwork,whichisintheprocessofbeingconnected,isbuiltonanode-to-nodephilosophy:Eachagencyparticipatesthroughanexchangeofdatawithotheragenciesandtherebycontributestothecreationofan interoperablecollaborativeenvironment. It

60 Singapore’sDefenseScienceandTechnologyAgency(http://www.dsta.gov.sg),DSONationalLaboratories(http://www.dso.org.sg),whichisSingapore’snationaldefenseR&Dorganization,theArlingtonInstitute(http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org),andtheconsultancyCognitiveEdge(http://www.cognitive-edge.com).

61 TheRAHSsystementertainscloserelationswiththeCentreofExcellenceforNationalSecurity(CENS),anacademicresearchunitoftheS.RajaratnamSchoolofInternationalStudiesatSingapore’sNanyangTechnologicalUniversity.CENSisde-votedtopolicy-relevantanalysisofarangeofsecurityissues,andoneofitsthreeresearchclustersfocusesonriskassessmentandhorizonscanning.Moreinformationisavailableatthefollowingwebsite:http://www.rsis.edu.sg/cens.

62 OnemajorconferenceistheannualInternationalRiskAssess-mentandHorizonScanningSymposium.Moreinformationisavailableatthefollowingwebsite:http://www.rahs.org.sg/t2_irahss08_ats.html.

allowsthedataandtoolsofdifferentagenciestobetreatedandexploitedaswebservicesthatarediscoverableandshar-able.Eachagencythusfeedsthesystemwithinformation,collectedfromownscansaswellasfromopensources,andprofitsfromthedataprovidedbyothers.

The systemhelpsusers toprocess large amountsof in-formation, to search for articles within its repository,andtoperformavarietyofanalysesinordertoquicklyextract the needed information. It also allows users tometa-tag and comment on incoming and existing datasetsandtovisua-lizetheminordertoamplifydataout-liers. Furthermore, data structuring services enable thebuilding of system maps with associated consistencymatrices and the performing of morphological analy-ses.63 It is important to note that the system incorpo-ratesconcepts,suchassystemsthinkingandcomplexityanalysis,thathavepreviouslybeenappliedinworkshopsettings. The main challenge was therefore to translatethemintosoftwarefunctionsthatcanbeeasilyusedbyallusersintheirdailyoperationseveniftheydonoten-tirelyunderstandtheunderlyingtheoriesandconcepts.In addition, HSC supports government agencies withexpertiseinmethodology,ifnecessary,andexploresthelonger-term prospects for the participating agencies toincorporatethesemethodsintotheirownworkingpro-cesses.64

Thesystemisrunontwoseparatenetworks–aclassi-fied, or closed, network and an unclassified, or open,network.NSCCmaintains separateRAHSportals foreachnetwork,andeachportalactsasaone-stopdesti-nation forahostofproductsgeneratedby theRAHSsystem.Furthermore,anoutreach strategywasdevelopedtoextendRAHStoagenciesoutsideofgovernment:

• First, it envisages involvingSingaporeuniversi-tiesinordertogetfeedbackonthesystemandsupport in building models that apply acrossthepolitical, social,or economicdomains.65 Inthese engagements, the RAHS system is madeavailable for research purposes, which simulta-neously facilitates theadoptionof theconceptsand methods of horizon scanning by youngerSingaporeans.

63 ForthisandadditionalinformationonSOAanditstechnicalfeatures,seeSingaporeNationalSecurityCoordinationCentre(2007).

64 SingaporeNationalSecurityCoordinationCentre(2007),p.25.

65 ExamplesincludeengagementswithundergraduateclassesfromSingaporeManagementUniversity(2006)andtheNationalUniversityofSingapore(2007),aswellasaStrategicForesightMasterscourseinNanyangTechnologicalUniversity(2008).

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• Second, the outreach program seeks to establisha trustednetworkofdomainexperts in thepri-vatesectorinordertodrawontheirexpertiseandwisdom.

• Third, in the longer term, the outreach strategyaims to extendhorizon scanningbeyondSinga-pore’sbordersbydevelopingexchangeprogramswithinternationalpartners.66

RAHS Experimentation CentreTheRAHSExperimentationCentre(REC)waslaunchedin October 2007 with a technology-oriented focus onexploration, experimentation, and enhancement of theRAHSsystem.67RECismanagedbySingapore’sDefenseScienceandTechnologyAgencyandhastwo main goals:

• Itfunctionsasatechnologyscanningandinnova-tioncenter.Itprovidesafocalpointforcoopera-tion with other government agencies, academicinstitutions,andtheprivatesectortoexploreandexperiment with new and emerging technologytoolsrelatedtoRAHS.

• ItensuresthatRAHSundergoescontinuoustech-nologicaldevelopmentandintroducesnovelcon-ceptsandtechnologiesthatexpandthecapabilitiesoftheRAHSsystem.Itisinterestedinconceptsortechnologiesthatdemonstratepotentialforappli-cation in risk assessment and horizon scanning,suchassocialcomputing,modelingandsimulation,computationallinguistics,dataanalysis,andinfor-mationvisualization.

RECpursuestwo main activities:

• Itconductsexperimentstoseednovelconceptsandtechnologiesinoperationalcontextsandtodeter-mine,togetherwithpolicyanalysts,theusefulnessofriskassessmentandhorizonscanning.68

• It participates in case studies with governmentagenciesoncomplexproblemsinordertodem-onstratehowRAHScanhelp to solve them.Anotableexampleisthecasestudytoexploresce-nariosabouttheimportationofavianinfluenzaintoSingapore and to assess the threat level ofoutbreaksoccurringintheregion.

66 S.RajaratnamSchoolofInternationalStudies(2008),p.22.

67 FormoreinformationontheREC,seethefollowingwebsite:http://www.rahs.org.sg/t3_aboutRahs_rp_rg_rec.html.

68 Examplesincludeaproofofconceptondataanonymization,aprojectonsituationalawarenessofmaritimesecuritythreats,orthetestingoftheapplicabilityofRAHSinthedetectionofthreatsinoperationsotherthanwar.SeeNationalSecurityCoor-dinationSecretariat(2007),p.22.

3.2.3 Conclusions

Singapore’s government invests in tools andprocessesto avoid future strategic surprises. Among the manyinteresting characteristics of its Risk Assessment andHorizonScanningprogram, three areparticularly im-portantinthisstudy’scontext:

• The program is anchored in concerns aboutnational security and is targeted at the respec-tiveissues.WhileitdistinguishesitselffromtheUKForesightProgrammeinthisrespect,italsocultivatesabroadperspectiveoftheissuestobeconsidered security-relevant and envisages ex-pandingitsfuturescopetoabroadpublicpolicyagenda.

• A second noteworthy feature is its innovativegovernment-wide network based on an open-systemarchitecturethatcreatesaninteroperableworkingenvironmentwithoutestablishingcen-tralizeddatabases,allowingeachagencytopar-ticipateonequalterms.

• Finally,inadditiontoitsactivitiesreachingouttowardsuniversitiesandthebusinessworld,theprogram emphasizes the technological side ofhorizonscanningandpromotestheexplorationanddevelopmentoftechnologiesthatmaysup-portfutureactivitiesinthisarea.

3.3 The Netherlands Horizon Scan Project

TheNetherlandsrecentlystartedtocreatehorizonscan-ning capacities in order to broaden the government’sview on future threats and opportunities. The goal isenhance its ability to anticipate trends and develop-mentsandtosupportthegovernmentincreatingfuture-orientedpoliciesinareasthatarerelevanttotheDutchsociety. The following paragraphs exemplify how abroadstrategicscanprovidesinputthatmayultimatelyleadtodecisionsaboutpolicyprioritiesandagendas.

3.3.1 Evolution and institutional arrangements

Incontrasttothepermanenthorizonscanningsystemsof the UK and Singapore, the Netherlands HorizonScan2007wasasingleprojectcarriedoutbyaspeciallyestablishedteamundertheresponsibilityoftheCom-missionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(COS),69aplatformforconsultationandcollaborationofindepen-dentcommissionsconsistingofrepresentativesfromre-search,society,industry,government,andthink-tanks.Onthebasisoffuturesstudies,itformulatesprioritiesforsociety-orientedresearch,focusinginparticularonthose experts dealing with cross-sector subjects at theinterfaceofpolicydomainsandscientificdisciplines.

Basedona2004evaluationindicatinganeedforfore-sight studiesofabroadernature,COSinitiatedaho-rizonscanprojectat theendof2005.Whenthefinalreportwaspublishedin2007,70theprojectwasnolon-gerexpectedtoremainaone-timemeasure:InFebru-ary2008,thetasksoftheCOSweretransferredtotheKnowledgeDirectorateoftheNetherlandsMinistryofEducation,CultureandScience,which functionsas aprovisionalfacilityforthecontinuationofthenationalscanandtheDutchinvolvementinEuropeanhorizonscanningactivities.71Itisforeseenthatinspring2009,apermanentfacilitywillbecreatedoutsidetheministryinordertoestablishhorizonscanningonapermanentandinstitutionalizedbasis.

69 CommissionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(2008),p.7.

70 “Netherlandshorizonscan”,presentationbyProf.Dr.Roelin‘tVeldandVictorvanRijatthepreparationmeetingonjointactivities,ForSociety,TheHague,19March2007,http://www.toekomstverkennen.nl/doc/2007/Presentation%20NL%20horizon%20Scan%2019march2007.pdf,accessed9September2008.

71 AprominentexampleistheDutchparticipationinthe“For-SocietyERA-Net”(http://www.eranet-forsociety.net),aprojectinitiatedunderthe6thEuropeanResearchFrameworkPro-gramme,whichfosterscoordinationamongthenationalforesightprogramsof15countries.

3.3.2 Programs and activities

TheHorizonScan2007aimedtoraisetheawarenessintheNetherlandsabout future threatsandopportunitiesandtheirimpactonsociety.Forthispurpose,theprojectintendedtoidentifyandprioritizethetopicsofforesightstudiesandotheractivitiesofthesectorcouncils,tode-tectknowledgegapsandtopicsforfurtherstudy,andtofeed the results into strategic discussions in ministries,research organizations, societal organizations, and thebusinessworld.

Theprocessextendedovertwoyearsandwasstructuredinseveralphases:72Inthefirst phase,alistofopportuni-ties and threatswasconstructed,basedonanextendedliteraturereviewandaccordingtoasetofselectioncrite-ria,namelythelikelihoodandimpactofpotentialfutureevents.73Thelistwasthendividedintopreviouslydeter-minedcategories74andextendedandrefinedthroughoutthe entire project in interactions with so-called sound-ingboards,composedofDutchandforeignspecialistsofdifferentprofessionalcommunities.Finally, the listwasvalidatedbycomparingitwiththeoutcomeoftheUKhorizonscans.

Inthesecond phase,thegeneralpublicandthesoundingboardsmembersevaluatedthelist,whichidentifiedsome150problemsandopportunities.75Thisprocessstimula-teddiscussionsandwasexecutedthroughapublicwebsiteaswellaspersonalconsultations.Thethird phaselinkedtheidentifiedthreatsandopportunitieswithoneanotherandorderedthemintotrans-domainandtrans-discipli-naryclustersthatrevealedlinksbetweenexpecteddevelop-mentswithpotentiallymajorsocialconsequences.Again,sounding board meetings were held to discuss or re-constituteclustersandtostarttheselectionofapproxi-matelytenclustersoffundamentalthreatsandopportu-nities.76Finally,aspecificallydevelopedcardgame,which

72 Foradetaileddescription,seeCommissionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(2008),pp.10–16.

73 TheresultingbibliographyisavailableinCommissionforCon-sultationofSectorCouncils(2008),pp.69–81.

74 Thesecategorieswereattributedtothephysical(atmosphere;geosphere;biosphere;hydrosphere;space;theuniverse)andthehumanenvironment(basicservices;science,technology,andeducation;socialdomain;economicandfinancialdomain;politi-cal,administrative,andjudicialdomain).

75 ThefulllistisavailableinCommissionforConsultationofSec-torCouncils(2008),pp.83–126.

76 ThetenclusterscoveredbytheHorizonScanProjectare:‘Infra-structureforthefuture’;‘Changingeconomicandpoliticalworldorder’;‘Aglobalapproachtodangerousinfectiousdiseases’;‘Workandeducationinanewcontext’;‘Opportunitiesforroboticsandinter-connectivity’;‘Tworelatedtransitions:creat-

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facilitatesopendiscussionbytrainingparticipantstopro-videcreativeanswerstochallengingtasksandhypotheses,helpedparticipants todiscover (surprising) interactionsbetweensubjectswithinandacrossclusters.77

Inthefourth phase,theclusterdescriptionswerepresentedtoanumberofscientists,journalists,andpoliticianswhowereaskedtowriteessaysaboutpossiblefuturedevelop-mentsandtopresenttheirviewsofcoreissues.78Basedontheessays,thelistofopportunitiesandthreats,theclusterdescriptions,andtheuncoveredrelationsamongthem,theprojectteamdraftedanalternative“StateoftheNation”address.ThegoalwastoraiseawarenessintheNetherlandsaboutissuesthatrequireaperspectivereachingfurtherintothefuturethanisthecaseintheaddressthatisregularlydeliveredbythequeen.Thechallengewastoprovideanoutlookonemergingpolicychallengesthatsimultaneouslymakesaninterestingread,pointstodilemmas,generatesquestions,andinspirespublicinvolvement.79Finally,thelast phase involved the drafting of the final report andmarked the startof an intensedialogon the results andtheirimplicationswithinandacrossgovernment.

ingandutilizingspace’;‘Handlingconflictsandsecuritypolicyconstructively’;‘Theengineerableandself-mutatinghuman’;‘Acceleratingthedevelopmentofnewenergysources’;and‘Whatdoes‘thegrayingofsociety’mean?’.

77 SeeCommissionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(2008),p.40.

78 TheessayswerepublishedinIn’tVeld,vanderVeen,andBasten(2006).

79 TheaddresswaspublishedinthedailynewspaperNRCHandels-bladon16September2006,seeCommissionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(2008),p.36;seealsothereprintonpp.153–8.

3.3.3 Conclusions

TheNetherlandsHorizonScan2007showsthatabroadstrategicscanprovidesinputforpolicy-makingbyiden-tifying,assessing,andclusteringfuturetrends,issues,anddevelopments.80However,thetopicsraisedinthecourseofsuchaprojectareonlyofsustainedvalueiftheyini-tiate a comprehensive foresightprocess that transformstheidentifiedknowledge(andtheknowledgegaps)intoinsightsforstrategicdecision-making.Whiletheclusterdescriptions and essays are first steps in this direction,theplannedinstitutionalizationofthehorizonscanningprocessonaregularbasiswillaccentuatetheinitiationofsuchasystematicforesightprocess.Twoimportantcon-clusionscanbedrawnfromtheHorizonScan2007:

• Ifhorizonscansaretomakeapermanentcontri-bution todiscussionsabout the future, it its im-perativetorepeatthemonaregularbasis.

• Many of the issues noted in this project are notuniquetotheNetherlands;therefore,internationalcooperationintheareaofhorizonscanningcouldbeprofitable,notonlyintheinterestofmoreef-ficientdatagatheringandmethodsdevelopment,butalsoforcreatingcommonimagesandpercep-tionsoftopicsthatrequireatransnationalorevenglobalapproach.

80 SeeforthefollowingCommissionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(2008),pp.43-48.

3.4 Key insights and messages

ThereviewedcountryexperiencesoftheUK,Singapore,andtheNetherlandsdemonstratethemultifacetedcharac-terofforesightandhorizonscanning.Althoughtheyhavemanyaspects incommon,eachcasealsorevealsparticu-larities that set it apart from theotherprograms. In thefollowing,wewillhighlightsomeofthekeymessages.

• Mainstreaming horizon scanning and foresight throughout government: Asregardsthepolicyareascovered,theprogramsgrewoutofdifferentpolicyareas,butallaimtobewideinscopeandintendtomainstreamhorizonscanningthroughoutthefullpublicpolicyagenda.Nevertheless,the“historicalroots” of the programs are easy to recognize: Inthe UK, for instance, the Foresight ProgrammeclearlygrewoutofS&Tpolicyboth in termsofthecontentsoftheforesightprojectsaswellasinitsinstitutionalattachmenttotheDepartmentofInnovation,UniversitiesandSkills.Similarly,theintegrationofSingapore’sRAHSintotheNation-al Security Coordination Secretariat emphasizesthe focus on national security issues. Therefore,historical legacies and decisions about institu-tionalentrenchmentofthecoordinatingbodiesofgovernment-wide horizon scanning have signifi-cant impact in termsofpriority-settingandhowtheprogramsareperceivedwithinandoutsideofgovernment.Still,ifhorizonscanningistoprovidea cross-governmental perspective that comple-mentsthehorizonscansofindividualdepartments,itisessentialtopursueaholisticperspectiveandtofocusonabroadpolicyperspective.

• Supporting horizon scanning across government: Theprogramsusuallyaimtobecentersofexcel-lenceforhorizonscanning,butdonotintendtoprovide topical expertise on all potential futureissues as they lack the required knowledge. In-stead, their task is to support others in imple-mentingtheirownforesightandhorizonscanningstructures (as is mandatory for the departmentsoftheUKgovernment)andtoprovideahigher-level strategic context for the respective govern-mentinitiatives.However,itisachallengingtasktohard-wiredifferent agencies for addressing in-terdisciplinary and cross-cutting issuesunder theresponsibility of more than one department andto create an interoperable working environment.Individual departments are usually protective oftheirownareasofaction,andevenifanenthusi-asticministersponsorsaforesightproject,itmay

not get support from colleagues elsewhere.81 Tosumup, theproponentsof cross-cuttinghorizonscanningstrivetofindtherightbalancebetweencentralizationintermsoftheirsupportandcoor-dination roles, and decentralization with respectto the topical analysis performed by a variety ofcompetentbodiesacrossgovernment.

• Building networks across professional communi-ties: In today’sdynamicenvironment,where thechallenges transcend geographic and sectoralboundaries,evenaninclusivecross-governmentalprocess may not be sufficient anymore. Conse-quently,allprogramsarededicatedtoextendingtheiractivitiestowardotherprofessionalcommu-nities,particularlyprivatebusinesses,think-tanks,andtheacademicsector.Theparticipantsrealizethatamulti-stakeholderapproach,drawingonamultitude of internal as well as external sourcesofknowledge,ispreferabletoaprocessthatisex-clusivelycenteredonexpertsfromwithingovern-ment.At the same time, theSingapore exampleillustrates how an academic outreach programoffersopportunitiesforbothsides:Thegovernmentwinsfeedbackfromcriticalmindsonitsmethodsand concepts; it acquires scientific insights intothelateststate-of-the-artofvariousacademicdis-ciplines;anditexposesthenextgenerationofstu-dentsandcitizenstothepracticeofhorizonscan-ning.Theuniversities,on theotherhand,profitfrom access to online resources containing dataandinformationthatisvaluableforresearchandmightnotbeeasilyretrievableelsewhere.Finally,recentdevelopmentsindicateatrendtowardslink-ingseveralnationalscansinajointhorizonscan-ning.Suchacombinedscanisexpectedtorevealissuesthatareoverlookedintheseparatenationalscansandmayserveasatooltocreateacommonunderstanding and shared awareness of futuresissues.82

• Guaranteeing the inflow of expert knowledge:Horizon scanning and foresight must be basedonthebestavailablescientificandotherevidence.Thismessage is stronglyemphasizedby theBrit-ish government, which regards close links andcollaboration with universities, think-tanks, andresearch institutesasessential.TheUKForesightProgrammecomesundertheresponsibilityoftheGovernment’s Chief Scientific Advisor so as toguarantee that real expert knowledge flows intothe project work. This determination safeguards

81 KingandThomas(2007),p.1702.

82 VanRij(2008),pp.2and6.

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the credibility and longer-term reputationof theprogram. Should the impression arise that hori-zonscanninglacksanalyticalrigorand(academic)seriousness, it will become difficult to translatetheresultsandimplicationsintotrustworthyandgenerallyacknowledgedpolicyrecommendations.

• Securing broad political support:Horizonscanningandforesightaredirectedatgeneratinginsightsandideas for senior decision-makers.However, theseinsightsmayoftenbesituatedonthemarginsofcurrentthinkingandmaychallengeconventionalwisdom.Withoutclearsupportandbackingfromseniorpolicy-makers,itisdifficultforlower-levelprofessionalstoimplementandpursueneworal-teredpolicies.

• Ensuring policy impact:Policyimpactcanonlybeachievedifthereisamutualunderstandingamongallconcernedstakeholdersandtheforesightprojectteamoftheneedsandgoalsoftheotherrespectiveparties.83TheUKgovernmentstatesbluntly thatifthereisnoonewillingtolisten,noscientificre-portsareneeded.Consequently,theyonlyembarkontheunexploredterritoryofanewproject if itissupportedbyallrelevantstakeholders.Further-more,eachproject ischairedbyaministerwhoguarantees political backing and who is respon-sibleforpromotingthepolicyrecommendations.84Overall, it iscritical that the resultsandrecom-mendationsbeusedtoinformadecisionmakingprocess inaneffectivefashion.Ifthereportsareshelvedwithoutfurtheractionassoonastheyarepublished, interest inparticipatinginsuchexer-ciseswill rapidlyvanishnotonly in thegovern-ment,but alsoamongallother involvedgroupsandindividuals.

83 DaCostaetal.(2008),p.380.

84 KingandThomas(2007),p.1702,alsorefertotheproblemsarisingwhenministersaretransferredtootherportfoliosandsupportforaprojectanditsactionplansmaynotbesustained.

• Establishing horizon scanning as a permanent process: Horizon scanning needs to be regularlyrepeatedandmuststandonasolid(institutional)footing.Sinceonlyfewpeoplereallyunderstandwhathorizon scanningand foresight is about, agood level of education is required in order tode-mystifytheseapproaches,intermsofboththepotentialbenefitsandthelimits.85TheexperienceoftheNetherlandsshowsthat itmaybeagoodideatostartonaprojectbasisinordertodisplaythe positive impact of the process to a numberof different stakeholders. However, long-termsustainableeffectsmayonlyoccur if theprocessisfirmlyestablished–which isexactlywhat theDutchgovernmentisnowdoing.

85 SeeVoros(2003),p.11.

Horizonscanningthatcutsacrosspolicyareasandgovern-mentdepartments isnot instituted in theSwiss govern-ment.However,somefederaldepartmentsandofficesaretryingtodetectandassessfutureissuesanddevelopmentswithinthepolicyareasthatcomeundertheirresponsibil-ity.ArecentreportpublishedbytheCenterforSecurityStudies at ETH Zurich, for instance, explores how thefederal administration develops and uses scenarios toprepareforupcomingthreatsandcrisissituations.86Fur-thermore,a surveyconductedby theCenter forScienceandTechnologyStudiesconcludesthatacertainforesightcultureexistsinSwitzerland;however,activitiesareunco-ordinatedanddispersedacrosstheadministration,univer-sities,andcompanies,andprojectsoftheadministrationareusuallyfocusedonspecificissueareassuchasenergy,environmental,orlandscapeandagriculturalpolicy.87

Therefore,Switzerlandhasnot implementedprogramsoractivitiesthatrefertothecross-governmentfunctionofhori-zonscanningasdescribedabovefortheUK,Singapore,andtheNetherlands.Nonetheless, there are twoprojects thatmaybeconsideredinawidersensetobepointinginsuchadirectionandmayformastartingbaseforfutureaction.

• The first project is the Risks Switzerland project (“Risiken Schweiz”), launched in the early 1990sandlocatedundertheauspicesoftheFederalOf-ficeforCivilProtection(FOCP).Itservestocollectand assess existential risks that affect Switzerland.Animportantmilestonewastheunpublished“RiskProfileSwitzerland”reportof1999,whichpredic-tedprobabilitiesanddamagepotentialsforanum-ber of risk scenarios through the analytical prismof non-military security issues across the publicpolicyagenda.However,thisreportwasperceivedasnotbeingpoliticallyexpedientatthetime;itsap-proachwasarathertechnocraticonethatwasbiasedtowards quantifiable factors and neglected inte-gration with the political decisionmaking level.88Although the entire project has suffered setbacksoverthepastfewyears,itisstillactive,anditsfutureworkprogram includes, amongother aspects, thecollectionandevaluationofscenariosofrelevancetosecuritypolicy.89

86 CenterforSecurityStudies(2008).

87 CenterforScienceandTechnologyStudies(2007a),p.21.There-portrefers,forinstance,totheEnergyPerspectivesfor2035projectbytheFederalOfficeofEnergy(www.energy-perspectives.ch).

88 Habegger(2008).

89 FederalOfficeforCivilProtection(2008),p.16.

• The second cross-government project is the Forward Planning Staff of the federal administration,whichis located in the Federal Chancellery as the staffofficeoftheFederalCouncil.Itconsistsofrepre-sentatives fromabout30 federal offices andpre-pares a quadrennial overview of potential futuretrends and issues facing the federal administra-tion. Itsmost recent report, entitled“Challenges2007–2011”,servesvariousgovernmentactorsasan interpretivedocumentand referencework; inparticular,thereportistakenintoaccountbytheFederalCouncil in its legislatureplanning.90Thereportlooksforwardtothenextlegislativeperiod,anditsindividualchapterscoverthefullrangeofpolicyareas.Thechaptersaredraftedbythegov-ernmentoffices in charge, so that the report canbe regardedasacompilationof theofficialposi-tions within the administration. Therefore, it isnotelaboratedinintenseconsultationwithexter-nalsubject-matterandforesightexperts,doesnotprovideacross-issueperspective,andrefrainsfrommakingjudgmentsintermsofpolicypriorities.

Bothprojectshavethepotentialtocontributetoamorefuture-orientedperspectiveinfederalpolicy.Atthesametime,theyarenotconsistentlydirectedtowardgenerat-ingforesightknowledge:Onemaycriticize,forinstance,that theydonot sufficientlydrawonoutsideexpertise,that (scientific) evidence is considered selectively, thatthe methods, tools, and instruments of foresight arerarely used, or that there is a lack of political backingthat impedes the process of feeding the results in thepolicyprocess.Bothprojects also illustrate thedifficul-tiesofestablishingacross-cuttingprojectwithinafederaladministrationthattendstowardscompartmentalizationand coordinating the respective activities even withinindividualdepartments.Althoughtheneedforlong-termperspectives and a coordinated approach is recognizedacross the administration, it is difficult to implementtheminpractice.

Whatoptionsdoexist to establishhorizon scanning inaSwisscontext?Inthefollowing,thestudyconceivesafewoptions of how it could be implemented in the federaladministration. The developed models are based on thecountry reviews presented in the previous chapter andshould be understood as draft approaches that blend theknowledge gained from experiences of other countrieswithanin-depthunderstandingoftheSwisspoliticaland

90 SeeforthelatestreportFederalChancellery(2007).

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administrative system.Thispaperbynomeansaimstoproposedefinite solutions,but servesasabasis fordis-cussingtheneedandpossiblewaystocreatemorefuture-orientedandstrategicallyinformedapproachestofederalpolicymaking.

Each model ties in with one of the described countryexperiences: model one relates to the Dutch example,model two to the British one, and model three to theSingaporeexperience.Eachmodelisbrieflydescribedintermsofitsmissionandpurpose,theproductsandser-vicesitcandeliver,thepotentialinstitutionalframeworkinwhichitmightbeembedded,andaroughestimateoftherequiredresources.

4.1 Model 1: Horizon Scanning Switzerland Project

ThepurposeofaHorizonScanningSwitzerlandprojectistodetectandevaluatefuturetrendsandissuesrelevanttoSwitzerland.Itcutsacrossallpolicyfieldsandincludesallfederaldepartmentsaswellasstakeholdersfromacademia,think-tanks,businesses,andcivilsociety.Akeyobjectiveistodeterminewhetherandhowhorizonscanningcanbeappliedingovernment,whatpurposesitserves,andwhatproductsandservicesitcandeliver.Inparticular,suchaprojectassessestheacceptanceofhorizonscanningintheSwisscontext,especiallywithinthefederaladministration,the support it receives from political decision-makers inparliamentaswellasatthecantonalandmunicipallevels,andthereactionofthemediaandthegeneralpublic.

Intermsofproductsandservices,theprojectcouldfol-lowtheDutchexampleandcarryoutabroadstrategic

scan that identifies a list of the most important futuretrendsandissuesandcategorizesthemintoaselectnum-berof clusters.Thesemaybe further assessed toderivestrategiclessonsforfuturepolicypriorities.Theprocesswouldbedrivenbyexpertnetworksthatcomprisemanystakeholdersfrombothwithinandoutsidethefederalad-ministrationwhowouldmeetinaseriesofconferencesorsmallerworkshops.Itwouldextendtotwogroupsofnetworks:on theonehand, subject-matterexperts thatcanbringinthenecessarytopicalknowledgetoaddressspecificissues;ontheotherhand,expertsinhorizonscan-ningandforesightmethodswhoknowhowtodevelopand execute suchprocesses.The results of the strategicscans, the assessments, and the dynamics of expert in-teractionswouldbedisseminatedthroughessays,policybriefs,orpublicpresentations.Innovativeapproachesforpromotingthehorizonscanningproject,forinstanceanalternativespeechontheoccasionof theswissnationalholidaythatlooksfurtherintothefuturethanthetradi-tionalonedeliveredbythepresident,wouldcreatepublicawarenessandmighthelptoevaluatetheproject’soverallprospectofsuccess.

Asatestcase,theprojectwouldbelimitedintime(e.g.,to 24 months) with clear milestones in terms of timeschedule anddeliverables. If it ispositively evaluatedaf-ter the test period, it might be extended or establishedonapermanentbasis.Theprojectcouldbemanagedbya small project team and integrated, for example, intothe Federal Chancellery, e.g., to the secretariat of theForward Planning Staff, which would ensure that theprojectisnotassociatedwithasinglepolicyareaandthusstandsonamore“neutral”groundthanifitwereattachedtoaparticulardepartment.Therequiredresourceslargely

Horizon Scanning Switzerland-Project

Role model Netherlands Horizon Scanning Project

Mission and purpose To detect and evaluate future trends and issues relevant to Switzerland across the public policy agenda, to determine whether and how horizon scanning can be used in government, and to assess its acceptance in parliament, the federal administration, and the general public

Covered policy areas No particular focus; the strategic scan would cut across all public policy areas

Products and services A strategic scan to identify the most important trends and issues for Switzerland Creation of expert networksBroad dissemination of results through, inter alia, essays, policy briefs, public

presentations

Institutional framework The project is limited in time It could be run by a small internal project team, or by a project team of a

external partner organization

Estimated resources In-house team with a workload of approximately 150 to 250 per cent External project team as an alternative option Financial resources for workshops, reports, and promotional activities

Table 1: Model 1 – Horizon Scanning Switzerland Project

dependontheoverallscopeoftheproject.Notcountingtheworkbyexternalexpertsandbyotheremployeesfromwithintheadministration,theprojectwouldrequireafull-timeprojectdirector,ideallyascientificcollaborator,andsomeadministrativesupport(approximatelyatotalwork-loadof150to250percent).Furthermore,itwouldneedsomefinancialresourcesfororganizingtheworkshops,fordisseminatingtheresults,andforpromotionalactivities.

4.2 Model 2: Swiss Horizon Scanning Center of Excellence

ModeledontheUKForesightProgramme,asecondoptionistoestablishaSwisshorizonscanningcenterofexcellencetoprovidetheadministrationwiththenecessarymethodi-calandstrategicsupporttoestablishhorizonscanningandforesightinfederaldepartmentsandoffices.Itwouldpos-sessthemethodologicalandproceduralknowledgetohelpotherstoconductscansandfuturesprojects,butwouldnotperform them itself. However, in addition to its supportandeducationfunction,thecenterofexcellencewouldstillinitiateselectedscansandfuturesprojectsonissuesthatarerelevantacrossvariouspolicyareasandareofinteresttonu-merousinternalandexternalstakeholders(e.g.,tothebusi-nessworldinthedomainofinnovationpolicy).

Thehorizonscanningcenterwouldsupport the federaladministration in creating horizon scanning capacities.As it may not be possible to provide all the required

know-howfromin-housesources,thecenterofexcellencewouldrelyonexternalexpertise.Itcouldalsoinitiatea“SwissFuturesAnalysts’Network”,basedontheUKex-ample,inordertobringtogetherexpertswhosharetheirknowledge.Additionalproductscouldbestrategicscans,suchastheDeltaorSigmascanscarriedoutbytheUKhorizon scanning centre, or selected cross-governmentfuturesprojectsthatmayhaveanimpactonawiderangeofgovernmentfunctionsandpolicyfields.

Itisevidentthatafull-fledgedcenterofexcellencerequiressignificant planning, a long-term strategy, and sustainedfinancialinvestments.Inthebeginning,however,asmallnucleusofwhatmaylatergrowintoamoreencompassinghorizonscanningcentercouldbeestablishedquiterapidly:Itwouldprovidesupportandmaybeusefulfororganiz-ing thedesignand implementationof strategic scans. Ininstitutionalterms,anexistingsection(forexampleintheFederalChancellery) couldbe extendedand taskedwiththedevelopmentofabusinessplan,oranewsectioncouldbeinstalled,inanalogytotheUK–forexample,inafuturegovernmentdepartmentforeducationandinnovationpol-icy.Eveninitsinfantstage,thecenterofexcellencewouldneed considerablefinancial resources, particularly for in-volving external experts and the development of scans.Theinitialteamshouldconsistofaprojectdirector,twoorthreescientificcollaboratorswithsubstantialmethodicalandpolicyexperienceaswellassomeadministrativesup-port(approximatetotalworkloadof350to500percent).

Swiss Horizon Scanning Center of Excellence

Role model UK Foresight Programme

Mission and purpose To provide the federal administration with the necessary methodical, procedural, and strategic support to establish horizon scanning and foresight in government departments and offices

Covered policy areas No particular focus; support function across all public policy areas

Products and services Support and education function for the federal administrationExpert networks and “Swiss future’s analysts club”Strategic scans and selected futures projects possible

Institutional framework An internal competence center needs to be created: a) attached to an existing section (e.g. in the Federal Chancellery) or a new section is established (e.g. in a future Department for Education)

In a start-up phase, external consultants could be tasked to develop a business plan and an outline of key activities

Estimated resources In-house team with a workload of approximately 350 to 500 per cent at minimum

For the start-up phase: external team possibleConsiderable financial resources for involving external experts as well as

developing expertise and strategic scans

Table 2: Model 2 – Swiss Horizon Scanning Center of Excellence

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4.3 Model 3: Horizon Scanning for Swiss National Security

The third model has a more targeted policy focus, asit serves todetect andassess issues that areparticularlyrelevant to Swiss national security. It would connect avarietyofexpertsandgroupsofinterestsacrosspolicydo-mainstosupportthegovernmentinpreparingforemerg-ing threats. Similar to the risk assessment and horizonscanninginSingapore,anopensystemarchitecturelinksfederalofficesandexternalstakeholders(e.g.,inthebusi-nessworld)whodealinsomewaywithsecurity-relevantissues. Inparticular, it includes stakeholders forwhomsecurityaspectsarenotprimaryconcerns,andprovidesa platform that encourages the participation of thosestakeholderswhoarenotintegratedintothetraditionalsecurity-policycommunityandareattimesreluctantinthisrespect.Suchanetworkamongfederaloffices(andlater possibly extended to other stakeholders) allowsknowledgeaboutsecurity-relevantissuestobecollected,shared,anddiscovered.TheexemplarinSingaporealsoprovidesaninstitutionalhubtodeveloppublicoutreachtotheacademicworldandthebusinesscommunity,andhelpstoforgemoreintenseinternationalcontacts.

ThefocusonnationalsecuritysuggeststhatthisprogrambeestablishedwithintheFederalDepartmentofDefence,CivilProtectionandSport (DDPS),whereavarietyofpossibleinstitutionaloptionsareconceivable:Ontheonehand,itmightbeintegratedintotheDirectorateforSe-curityPolicy;ontheotherhand,itcouldbelinkedtotheRisksSwitzerlandprojectwithintheFOCP.Thisprojectrequiresconsiderablefinancialresources:Tobeginwith,

itwould requirea teamofprofessionals experienced inboth security policy and horizon scanning, consistingofaprojectdirector,oneortwoscientificcollaborators,andsomeadministrative support (anapproximate totalworkloadof300to400percent);thedevelopmentofaweb-basedserviceorientedarchitectureandtheinvolve-mentofexternalsubject-matterandtechnology;andtheprojectneeds communication efforts toovercome con-cernsbygovernmentbodiesoutside the securitypolicycommunity.

4.4 Linkages to ongoing projects and key questions

TheoutlinedmodelspresentarangeofoptionsofhowtointegratehorizonscanningintheSwissfederaladministra-tion.While eachmodel stands for aparticular integratedapproach, it also allows specific featuresof onemodel tobecombinedwithfeaturesofanothermodel.Forexample,ifhorizon scanning shouldbe limited to issues related tonationalsecurityandshouldfirstbetestedintheformofaprojectthatislimitedintime,featuresofmodel1andmod-el3couldbecombined;or,theservice-orientedarchitectureasproposedinmodel3mayalsoservetoconnectgovern-mentagenciesbeyondthedomainofnationalsecurityandcouldbeusefulinestablishingahorizonscanningcenterassuggestedbymodel2.Themodelsandtheirdifferentfea-turesthusconstitutearangeofresourcesthatmaybeassem-bledinmanywaystobeadaptedtothefederaladministra-tion’sparticularneeds.Itisthetaskofthefederalauthoritiestofurtherdiscusswhatmightbemostusefultothemandtodevelop–possiblywiththesupportofexternalconsultants–amodelthatisbestsuitedtotheirneedsandinterests.

Horizon Scanning System for Swiss National Security

Role model Singapore Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Programme

Mission and purpose To detect and assess issues that are particularly relevant to Swiss national security and to link for this purpose all federal offices (later including external stakeholders ) that deal with security-relevant issues

Covered policy areas Security policy or any issues that are (in a broader or narrower sense) relevant to security policy

Products and networks Creation of a platform to collect and share knowledge across government (and later with external stakeholders)

Extensive outreach to the academic world, the business sector as well as forg-ing extensive international contacts

Institutional framework Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport: a) in the Directorate for Security Policy or b) in the FOCP

Linkage to the “Comprehensive Risk Analysis Switzerland”-project

Estimated resources In-house team with a workload of approximately 300 to 400 per centFor the start-up phase: external team possibleFinancial resources for developing an open service architecture and for invol-

ving external subject-matter and technology experts

Table 3: Model 3 – Horizon Scanning System for Swiss National Security

To start from scratch is always difficult. Fortunately,however,someinstitutionalarrangementsforlinkingupwithalreadyexistingorenvisagedprojectswithinthefed-eraladministrationalreadyexist:

• First,theForward Planning Staffofthefederalad-ministration is due toprepare another report inview of the next legislative period 2011–15. Asapermanentandalreadywell-establishedprocess,theForwardPlanningStaffmayprovide a goodstartingpointtobringinamorestrategicallyandfuture-oriented perspective into the federal ad-ministration. Attached to the Federal Chancel-lery,itiswell-positionedtoprovideaperspectivethatcutsacrosspolicyareasandgovernmentde-partmentsandcouldbetherightplacetocreateahorizonscanningprojectthatteststhevalueoftheproposedprojectfortheSwissgovernmentanditsacceptanceamongseniordecision-makers.

• Second,ifthefocusofhorizonscanningshouldbecenteredonissuesrelatedtonationalsecurity,theRisks Switzerland project may be the right placeto attach it. This project has recourse to an es-tablishednetworkofindividualsandgovernmentbodies that have already been involved in pastactivities. However, some efforts are needed toanchoritmorebroadlywithinthefederaladmin-istration.Furthermore,theattachmenttoapar-ticular government agency, the FOCP, requiresaclearpoliticalmandatetoensurethatithasthenecessarylegitimacytoreachoutnotonlytothesecurity policy community within and beyondtheDDPS,buttoestablisha“wholeofgovern-ment”approach indetectingandassessing risksandthreats.91

• Third,theeclecticuseofanextensiverangeofin-formation sourcesmakehorizon scanninganex-cellentstartingpointforprofessionalizinggovern-ment-wide information and knowledge management.Forexample,inthedomainofopensourceintel-ligence (OSINT), an interdepartmental workinggroupiscurrentlyexploringpossiblesynergiesbe-tweengovernmentagencies,andanOSINTwork-ing group has been established within DDPS.92While a national OSINT strategy to coordinatetheseactivitiesatthepoliticallevelisstilllacking,OSINT–andknowledgemanagementmoregen-erally–mayprovideanotherlinkagepointtopro-motehorizonscanningthroughoutgovernment.

91 SeealsotherecommendationsinCenterforSecurityStudies(2008).

92 Pallaris(2008).

• Fourth, the combinationof a technology-orientedfocusandissuesrelatedtonationalsecurity–asitisexpressed,forexample, intheSingaporeRAHSExperimentationCentre–offers an excellent linktoastrategic technology monitoringasconductedbyarmasuisse,whichisthefederalcompetencecenterfortheprocurementoftechnologicallycomplexsys-temsandmaterialsinthedefensesector.93However,suchtechnologymonitoringneednotberestrictedtothedefensesector;itmightbeextendedtootherpolicyareasaswell.Atthesametime,thisexampleonceagainunderlinesthedifferentpotentialshapesofhorizonscanningactivitiesandthevarietyofob-jectivestheymayserve.

These existing projects offer a valuable fundament onwhich the idea and maybe even the concrete composi-tionofaSwisshorizonscanningprogramcouldbebuilt.However, in view of the key messages of the countryreviewsasreportedinchapter3.4,asetofquestionsrelat-ingtothetopicalandproceduralframeworkmustfirstbeanswered:

• Howbroad should thepolicy focusbe?Should itcoverthewholepublicpolicyagenda,orshouldithaveanarrowerfocuson,forinstance,issuesrelatedtonationalsecurity?

• Howcantheindividualdepartmentsandfederalof-ficesbeconnectedinordertofacilitateinter-agencycollaboration?Whattechnologicalmeansshouldbedeveloped,whatrolesshouldthecoordinatingbod-ieshave,andhowcanmutualtrustbetweendiffe-rentagenciesandpolicy-makersbestrengthened?

• Howcan the federal administration ensure an ef-fectiveoutreachtodifferentstakeholdersandpro-fessionalcommunitiesinordertoestablishworkingrelationships? What role should the business sec-torplay,howcantheprogramcapitalizeonexpertinput from think-tanks and academia, and howshouldinternationalcooperationbeestablishedandstrengthened?

• Whatmeasuresarerequiredtoensurethenecessaryanalytical rigor and academic seriousness to gua-ranteethathorizonscanningmayleadtoevidence-basedpolicyrecommendationsthatareadaptedtotheSwisscontext?

• What are thebest options to convincedecision-makers in government, parliament, and othercommunitiesof thepotentialbenefitsofhorizon

93 Formoreinformationonarmasuisse’sScienceandTechnologyprogram,seethefollowingwebpage:http://www.ar.admin.ch/internet/armasuisse/en/home/themen/wissenschaft.html.

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scanningforSwisssocietyandformorelong-term,focused,andsustainablepolicymaking?Whatspe-cificincentivesshouldSwissleadersbeofferedtosecuretheirsupport,participation,andwillingnesstofeedtheresultsintothepolicyprocess?

Thedesign and establishmentof aSwisshorizon scan-ningcapacityisanambitiousendeavorthatrequirescri-ticalreflectionsandcarefulplanning.Itdemandspoliti-calsupport, thewillingnessto listentounconventionalideas,tolearnandtochangeoldhabits,and–notleast–thewillingnesstoprovidesustainedfinancialresourcesoveracertainperiodof time.Inviewof theserequire-ments, itmight be a good idea to startwith a limitedproject to test the benefits and the acceptance of suchaninnovativeapproachtostrategicpolicymaking,beforefurtherstepsintheformofamoresolidinstitutionalan-choringintheSwisspoliticalandadministrativecontextareenvisaged.

Horizonscanningandforesighthavetwomainfunctions:providinginformationtopolicy-makersaboutemergingtrendsanddevelopments,andfacilitatingpolicydevelop-ment.BothfunctionscouldbeidentifiedinthecountryreviewsoftheUK,Singapore,andtheNetherlands.Theyshowed that concreteproducts in the formof strategicscansprovideinformationandideasforsubsequentpolit-icalaction.Theyarecrucialforsuccessbecauseconcreteoutcomesandbenefitshelptolegitimizethefinancialex-penditurestowardsthebroaderpublic,parliament,andgovernmentingeneral.

Amorein-depthanalysis,however,mustconcludethatthemostsignificantbenefitsofhorizonscanninglieinthesecondfunctionofforesight:thelearningprocessesthatitinitiatesandthenetworksandknowledgeflowsthat it creates between individuals and organizationsfromdifferentpolicy areaswithin andbeyondprofes-sionalcommunities.Theintensifiedinteractionsamongexperts from different fields in government, business,academia,andcivilsocietystimulatetheemergenceofshared understandings of interests and values and fa-cilitate the development of innovative policies. Theprocessesofdesigningfuturesprojects(UK),cooperat-ingon a government-wide informationnetwork (Sin-gapore), or conducting a broad strategic scan on thecountry level (Netherlands) are examples of how newnetworks among subject-matter experts and foresightprofessionalsmayemerge.

A future Swiss horizon scanning capacity must keepthreesuccessfactorsinmind:94thedevelopmentoftopi-cal,methodical,andprocessexpertise;thepromotionofcreativityand“outofthebox”thinkingtogenerateideasandvisionsaboutemergingissues;andtheestablishmentof intense interactions among stakeholders and seniorpolicy-makers to win their commitment and support.The following recommendationsareaimedat stimulat-ingthediscussionabouttherequirednextsteps:

• Recommendation 1 – Conducting a stakeholders’ needs assessment: Before horizon scanning andforesight activities and projects are envisaged,the needs and concerns of all involved andrelevantstakeholderswithinandoutsidethefede-raladministrationmustbeclarified.Iftheideaandpurposeofhorizonscanningcannotbeconveyedinaclearmessageandifthereisnointerestamongthepartiesconcerned,itwouldbefutiletoinitiate

94 VanderMeulen(1999),pp.18f.;CEST(2007a),pp.5f.;Müller(2008),pp.21f.

suchprojects.Itisadvised,therefore,toprepareaninventoryof key stakeholders –primarilywithinthefederaladministration–inordertoassesstheirneeds and interests critically. Based on such anassessment, it will be possible to respond to keyquestionssuchas:Whatshouldthepolicyfocusofhorizonscanningbe?Whatincentivesareneededtointegrateallrelevantstakeholders?Whatisthebestwaytoconnectdifferentgovernmentbodiesandagencies?

• Recommendation 2 – Identifying experts and build-ing of expert communities:Topical,methodical,andprocessexpertiseisakeyrequirementforsuccess-fulhorizonscanning.Whilethetopicalexpertiseofthefederaladministrationisexcellentacrosspolicyareas,themethodicalexpertiseoftoolsandinstru-mentstoorganizeandconducthorizonscanningexercises,aswellastheprocessexpertiseofhowtoeffectivelylinktheresultstoastrategicpolicypro-cess,aremuchlessdeveloped.Inordertoguaran-teethatcomprehensiveexpertknowledgeisreadilyavailableandcaneasilybeaccessed,theassemblyofspecializedexpertcommunitiesisrecommend-ed.Thistaskfirst requires identifyingthesignifi-cantexpertswithinandoutsidetheadministration–includinguniversities, think-tanks,civilsocietyorganizations,orcompanies–inordertoprepareaninventoryofexperts.Second,theconstructionof an expert community shouldbe facilitatedbyplatforms – conferences, workshops, or virtualspaces–whereexpertscanmeettoexchangeideasandtoshareexperiencesandpractices.

• Recommendation 3 – Actively communicating and winning stakeholder support: Horizon scanning isnotonlyananalyticaltaskofcollectinginforma-tion,but is supposed to stimulate the sharingofevidence,perspectives,andvisionsamongamul-titudeofstakeholders.Thesetasksdemandactive,open, and continuous communication. Further-more, empirical studies on foresight in compa-nies have shown that the critical factor usuallylies neither in the topical nor in the methodicaldomain, but in the appropriate procedural em-beddingandorganizationalimplementation.95Towinthesupportnotonlyofseniorpolicy-makers,but of all concerned stakeholders, requires thatthey be informed about the benefits of horizonscanningand its impactonpolicymaking. Ifho-

95 Müller(2008),p.2.

5 Summary and Next Steps

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rizonscanningisperceivedasbeinguseful,itwillenjoy (political) backing in parliament, govern-ment,theadministration,andthegeneralpublic.Thiswillalsoallowtheoutcomesofhorizonscan-ningexercisestobeintegratedintothepolicypro-cess.Itisthereforeadvisedtostartpromotingtheideaofhorizonscanningandtodisseminatetheseinsightsintheformofreports,presentations,andpersonaldiscussions.

Thisreporthashighlightedthemultifacetednatureofhorizonscanningandthebroadvarietyofpotentialob-jectivesitserves.Thereviewedcountryexperiencesalsoshowedthatitisaflexibleconceptthatcanandshouldbeadaptedtoanorganization’sparticularneedsandtothe political and cultural characteristics of a country.It is likelythattheSwissgovernmentwouldalsoben-efit from a more future-oriented approach to policy-making.This reporthasofferedanoverviewofactivi-tiesinothercountries,presentedsomemodelsonhowthey could be imitated in Switzerland, and providedrecommendationsonwhatmightbeneededinordertoapproachthenextsteps.

6.1 Bibliography

Aguilar,FrancisJ.(1967).Scanning the Business Environment.NewYork:McMillan.

Ansoff,IgorH.(1975).“ManagingStrategicSurprisebyResponsetoWeakSignals.”California Management Review,18(2),pp.21–33.

CenterforSecurityStudies(2008).Gefährdungsszenarien auf Stufe Bund: Eine Umfragestudie über laufende Arbeiten im

Bereich Risikoanalyse.Zürich:CenterforSecurityStudiesETHZurich.

Choo,ChunWei(2001).“EnvironmentalScanningasInformationSeekingandOrganizationalLearning.”Information Research,7(1),<http://informationr.net/ir/7-1/paper112.html>,accessed1December2008.

Choo,ChunWei(2002).Information Management for the Intelligent Organization: The Art of Scanning the Environment.Medford:InformationToday.

DaCosta,Olivier,PhilineWarnke,CristianoCagnin, andFabianaScapolo (2008). “The Impact ofForesight onPolicy-Making:InsightsfromtheFORLEARNmutuallearningprocess.”Technology Analysis and Strategic Man-agement,20(3),pp.369–87.

Habegger,Beat(2008).“RiskManagementinSecurityPolicy.”CSS Analyses in Security Policy,3(30).Zurich:CenterforSecurityStudiesETHZurich.

Hideg,Éva(2007).“TheoryandPracticeintheFieldofForesight.”Foresight,9(6),pp.36–46.

Horton,Averil(1999).“ASimpleGuidetoSuccessfulForesight.”Foresight,1(1),pp.5–9.

Käslin, Bruno (2008). Systematische Früherkennung von Emerging Risks in der Versicherungswirtschaft. DissertationUniversitätSt.Gallen.

King,DavidA.andSandyM.Thomas(2007).“TakingScienceOutoftheBox–ForesightRecast.”Science316(5832),pp.1701f.

Kreibich,Rolf(2006).“Dennsietunnicht,wassiewissen.”Internationale Politik,no.12,pp.6–13.

Krystek,UlrichandGünterMüller-Stewens (1999).“StrategischeFrühaufklärung.” InDietgerHahnandBernardTaylor(eds.),Strategische Unternehmensplanung – Strategische Unternehmensführung.8thed.,Heidelberg:Physi-ca,pp.497–517.

Lang,Trudi(1995).An Overview of Four Futures Methodologies: Delphi, Environmental Scanning, Issues Management, and Emerging Issue Analysis (Occasional Paper 7).Hawai’i:Hawai’iResearchCenterforFutureStudies.

Major,Edward,DavidAsch,andMartynCordey-Hayes(2001).“ForesightasaCoreCompetence.”Futures,33(2),pp.91–107.

Miles,Ian(2005).“UKForesight:ThreeCyclesonaHighway.”International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy,2(1),pp.1–34.

Morrison, JamesL. (1992), “Environmental Scanning”. InMeredithA.Whitely, JohnD.Porter, andRobertH.Fenske(eds.),A Primer for New Institutional Researchers.Tallahassee:TheAssociationforInstitutionalResearch,pp.86–99.

Müller,AdrianW.(2008).Strategic Foresight – Prozesse strategischer Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen.DissertationUniversitätSt.Gallen.

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6 References

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References

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Schultz, Wendy L. (2006). “The Cultural Contradictions of Managing Change: Using Horizon Scanning in anEvidence-BasedPolicyContext.”Foresight,8(4),pp.3–12.

Slaughter,RichardA.(1995).The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century.Westport:Praeger.

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6.2 Official documents and conference reports

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CenterforScienceandTechnologyStudies(2007b).Foresight-Studien – Bestandesaufnahme in OECD- und ERA-Län-dern – Annex(vonDirkMeissner,unterMitwirkungvonDianaSchramek).Bern,http://www.swtr.ch/d/ablage/dokstelle/Publikationen/2007/Foresight_Annex.pdf,accessed1December2008.

CommissionforConsultationofSectorCouncils(2008).Horizon Scan Report 2007: Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda.TheHague,http://www.horizonscan.nl/uploads/File/COS_binnenwerk%20engels_06(1).pdf,accessed1December2008.

ERANet (2007). Developing European Horizon Scanning Cooperation: Preliminary Report on a Pilot Joint Activity.June 2007 revised version. http://www.toekomstverkennen.nl/doc/2007/3%20Preliminary%20report%20on%20joint%20pilot%20activity.pdf,accessed1December2008.

FederalChancellery(2007).Challenges 2007–2011: Trends and Possible Future Issues in Federal Policy.ReportoftheForwardPlanningStaffoftheFederalAdministration.Bern,http://www.bk.admin.ch/dokumentation/publika-tionen/00290/00930/index.html?lang=en,accessed1December2008.

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SingaporeNationalSecurityCoordinationCentre(2007).Technical Paper on RAHS.Singapore:RAHSExperimenta-tion Centre, http://www.rahs.org.sg/rahs%20publication/ICCRTSP/Technical_Paper_on_RAHS_(3_Jan_07).pdf,accessed1December2008.

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References

Horizon Scanning in Government

Concept, Country Experiences, and Models for Switzerland

Beat Habegger

ETH ZurichCSS

ETH ZurichCSS

The Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich specializes in research, teaching, and information services in the fields of international relations and security policy. The CSS also acts as a consultant to various political bodies and the general public. The Center is engaged in research projects with a number of Swiss and international partners, focusing on new risks, European and transatlantic security, strategy and doctrine, state failure and state building, and Swiss foreign and security policy.

Confronted with an increasingly interconnected and dynamically changing world, governments are developing new ways of thinking ahead and planning strategically to cope better with future threats and opportunities. This report on Horizon Scanning in Government presents an innovative approach to support governments in dealing with uncertainties and in envisaging and realizing the policies they desire. It outlines the concept and purpose of horizon scanning, reviews the experiences of the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands, and develops perspectives for the establish-ment of horizon scanning in Switzerland.