optima optima optimisation for sustainable water resources management turkish case study: gediz...

OPTIMA

OPTIMAOptimisation for Sustainable Water

Resources Management

Turkish Case Study: Gediz River

19-20 December 2006

Milano

OPTIMA

Gediz Basin

Izmir

Istanbul

Extent: 17600 km2

Current water demand

Agriculture39 mm(695 MCM)

Industry3 mm(54 MCM)

Environ.Wetland0.2 mm(3.6 MCM)

Domestic

7.4 mm(133 MCM

Current water supply

Surface52 mm(940 MCM)

Ground9 mm (160 MCM)

TreatedNot Available

Rainfall700 mm

Water Supply: 1100 MCM

647 m3 per capita

Water Demand: 886 MCM

521 m3 per capita

Population: 1.700.000

OPTIMA

LAKES, RESERVOIRS and WEIRS

OPTIMA

Demographic ChangeBasin Population +1.5 % /year [1 100 000(1970) 1 700 000 (2000)]

Urban population +2% /yearRural population -0.7% /year

INTERNAL MIGRATION RURAL TO URBAN: RAPID URBANIZATION

OPTIMA

Land Use Change Urban Areas +2% /year Industrial Areas +10% /year 35% increase in urban and industrial areas in 13 YEARS!

INCREASING WATER DEMAND: COMPETITION AMONG USERS

Industrial Areas

Kemalpasa

Manisa

Menemen

OPTIMA

KEY ISSUES

PHYSICAL CONDITIONS:

- Watershed Degradation

- Water Scarcity

- Droughts

WATER MANAGEMENT:

- Education and Awareness

- Institutional Framework:

- Institutional Responsibilities

- Active Participation

OPTIMA

WATER DEMAND:

- Agriculture

- Surface Water Demands

- Groundwater Demands

- Industry:

- Surface Water Pollution by Industry

WATER SUPPLY:

- Quality:

- Surface Water Quality

- Groundwater Quality

- Infrastructures:

- Sanitation: Sewers and Treatment

KEY ISSUES

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

Domestic demand 0.15 mm/year, 2%

Industrial demand 0.3 mm/year, 10%

KEY ISSUES

Supply (61mm) Demand (49.6mm)

OPTIMA

DischargesDischarges

Water Quality

60% of Surface Water

30% of Ground WaterW. Q. CLASS IV(acc. Turkish W.Q.C. Standards)

“POLLUTED, USE WITH CARE!!”

OPTIMA

Stakeholder and Dissemination Activities

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

• Seminar is carried out by SUMER in DEU Faculty of Engineering building in Tinaztepe Campus.

• The stakeholders, participated in II. Stakeholder meeting held in 19-20 April 2006 are re-invited.

• Total number of participants was 30 from different institutions.

• The outcomes of WRM Modeling and optimisation strategies are presented and discussed.

DISSEMINATION ACTIVITY: SEMINAR ON OPTIMA PROJECT

November 29, 2006 İzmir

OPTIMA

INSTITUTION TYPE

Soil and Water Resources Research Institute (2)

Governmental Research

Izmir Bird Paradise Protection and Development Union (1)

NGO

DSI 2nd Directorate (5) Governmental Planning

GEMA (2) NGO

Aegean Forest Foundation (1) NGO

Aegean Forestry Research Institute (4) Governmental Research

THAEM (Agro-hydrology Research Center) (3) Governmental Research

IZSU (4) Municipality

Province Agricultural Directorate (2) Governmental Research

Province Directorate of Environment and Forestry (1)

Governmental Monitoring

DEU (5) University

OPTIMA

In scope of the seminar, two questionnaires have been filled by participants.

1. The general objectives and the constraints;

2. The importance levels of the indicators on physical conditions, water management, demand and supply, in other words, the determination of priorities and trends.

(Re-evaluation of the results on priorities of issues obtained in previous meeting)

DISSEMINATION ACTIVITY: SEMINAR ON OPTIMA PROJECT

November 29, 2006 İzmir

OPTIMA

CONCEPTMIN & MAX

VALUEDSI

Point of view

Overall Supply / Demand ratio > 70-95 % > 90 %

Reliability of supply (average over all nodes/days)

> 70-95 % > 90 %

Benefit / Cost ratio > 0.8-2 > 1.5

Economical efficiency (direct) 0.10-0.7 €/ m3 0.5 €/ m3

Economical efficiency (indirect) 0.08-0.9 €/ m3 0.35 €/ m3

Net benefit (direct or indirect) 960-1200 €/ ca 1000 €/ ca

Cost of water (direct) 0.10-0.7 €/ m3 0.4 €/ m3

Cost of water (indirect) 0.08-0.7 €/ m3 0.25 €/ m3

QUESTIONAIRE : CONSTRAINTS

OPTIMA

PHYSICAL CONDITIONS

1 WATERSHED DEGRADATION

2 GROUNDWATER QUANTITY, QUALITY

3 WATER SCARCITY

4 DROUGHTS

WATER MANAGEMENT

1 EDUCATION AND AWARENESS

2 Institutional responsibilities

3 Active participation

4 Obsolete technologies, maintenance

QUESTIONAIRE : KEY ISSUES AND PRIORITIES

OPTIMA

WATER DEMAND

1 Surface water demands

2 Groundwater demands

3 Surface water pollution by agriculture

4 Water technologies (irrigation efficiency)

WATER SUPPLY

1 Groundwater quality

2 Surface water quality

3 Limits to agricultural use

4 Abstraction, reservoirs, water harvesting

QUESTIONAIRE : KEY ISSUES AND PRIORITIES

OPTIMA

TELEVISION AND RADIO INTERVIEWS, PRESS RELEASES

OPTIMA

Waterware Studies:

Model Topology and Construction

OPTIMA

Topological View of the Baseline Gediz Scenario

Demirkopru Buldan

Marmara Lake

Alasehir Irrig.

Ahmetli Irrig.

Adala Irrig.

Menemen Irrig.Wetland

Nif Tributary

Kumcay Tributary

Gordes Tributary Afsar

Bay of Izmir

OPTIMA

Topological View of the Future Gediz Scenario

Demirkopru Buldan

Marmara Lake

Alasehir Irrig.

Ahmetli Irrig.

Adala Irrig.

Menemen Irrig.Wetland

Nif Tributary

Kumcay Tributary

Gordes Tributary Afsar

Bay of Izmir

YIGITLER RES.

GORDES RES.

OPTIMA

RESERVOIRS

AFSARBULDAN

MARMARA

DEMIRKOPRU

Bay of Izmir

OPTIMA

GORDES

YIGITLER

AFSARBULDAN

MARMARA

DEMIRKOPRU

RESERVOIRS

OPTIMA

Reservoirs:

1) Demirkopru: supplies irrigation water, flood prevention, energy production during the irrigation season.

2) Afsar: provides irrigation water to Alasehir lowlands.

3) Buldan: provides irrigation water to Alasehir lowlands.

4) Marmara Lake

5) Gordes (under construction): supplies domestic water for the city of Izmir in addition to providing irrigation water within the basin.

6) Yigitler (under construction): supplies industrial water for the industrial district of Kemalpasa.

OPTIMA

Alasehir Irrig.

Ahmetli Irrig.

Adala Irrig.

Menemen Irrig.

Wetland

Bay of Izmir

Kemalpasa Ind. Zone

Manisa Org. Ind. Zone

Menemen Leather Ind.

Comlekci

Adala

Ahmetli

Emiralem

IRRIG. DISTRICTS,WEIRS,IND. ZONES and WETLAND

OPTIMA

River Basin Objects

Irrigation Districts :

1) Adala Left Bank

2) Adala Right Bank

3) Ahmetli Left Bank

4) Ahmetli Right Bank

5) Menemen Left Bank

6) Menemen Right Bank

7) Sarigol

8) Alasehir

Diversions:

1) Adala Weir

2) Ahmetli Weir

3) Emiralem Weir

4) Buldan Weir

5) Comlekci Weir

Industrial Districts:

1) Manisa Ind. Zone

2) Kemalpasa Ind. Zone

3) Memenen Leather Ind.

Wetland:

1) Izmir Bird Paradise

OPTIMA

Irrigation District

Area (ha)(min-max)

Cotton (%)

Maize (%)

Grape (%)

Vegetables (%)

Fruits (%)

Cereals (%)

Adala Left Bank Irr.

5100-7000 0 30 63 5 - 2

Adala Right Bank Irr.

5500-6600 25 30 40 3 - 2

Ahmetli Left Bank Irr.

13000-16100 5 18 63 5 9 -

Ahmetli Right Bank Irr.

12500-17000 17 25 54 4 - -

Menemen Left Bank Irr.

13000-14200 56 25 3 5 2 9

Menemen Right Bank Irr.

4900-5800 30 26 7 18 4 15

Sarigol Irr. 890-1100 - - 100 - - -

Alasehir Irr. 6800-8400 - - 100 - - -

OPTIMA

CropCrop Yield (kg/ha) Average Price (EU/kg)

Cotton 4027.5 0.68

Grape 4805 0.88

Maize 8035 0.17

Vegetables 26460 0.39

Cereals 6367.5 0.34

Fruits ? ?

Water Supply Ratio (%) Decrease in Yield (%)

80 4

70 8

60 15

50 23

Yields and Average Farmer’s Prices of Crops

OPTIMA

SUBCATCHMENTS and SETTLEMENTS

Turgutlu

AlasehirSalihliGolmarmara

Saruhanli

Menemen

Kemalpasa

Akhisar Ahmetli

Bay of Izmir

Buldan AfsarDeliinis

Gordes

MedarYigitler

Nif

OPTIMA

River Basin Objects Settlements :

1) Manisa (Gov. Centre)

2) Akhisar

3) Salihli

4) Turgutlu

5) Kemalpasa

6) Menemen

7) Saruhanli

8) Alasehir

9) Izmir

10) Golmarmara

11) Ahmetli

Subcatchments:

1) Demirkopru Upstream

2) Buldan Upstream

3) Afsar Upstream

4) Medar

5) Nif

6) Gordes

7) Yigitler

Aquifers:

1) Salihli-Turgutlu

2) Menemen

3) Sarikiz

4) Alasehir

OPTIMA

Name of the Settlement 1990 Pop. 2000 Pop. qHY, l/ca/day ** m3/day m3/s

Akhisar 73944 81510 170 13857 0.16

Salihli 70861 83137 170 14133 0.16

Turgutlu 73634 93727 170 15934 0.18

Manisa, Center 158928 214345 200 42869 0.50

Kemalpasa 16354 25448 100 2545 0.03

Menemen 29006 46079 120 5529 0.06

Saruhanli 12977 13025 100 1303 0.02

Golmarmara 10976 11205 100 1121 0.01

Alasehir 36649 39590 120 4751 0.05

Ahmetli 10190 11011 100 1101 0.01

Population qHY, l/ca/day

5 000 - 10 000 80

10 000 - 30 000 100

30 000 - 50 000 120

50 000 - 100 000 170

> 100 000 200

** Values from Bank of Provinces

Domestic Demand of Settlements

OPTIMA

The aquifers identified in WaterWare (WRM) and their parameters.

The Name of the Aquifer

Parameter Alasehir Menemen Salihli-Turgutlu Sarikiz

Area (km2) 940 300 1200 600

Average depth (m) 80 80 90 80

Porosity (%) 15 15 15 15

Percolation loss coefficient 0 0 0 0

Deg. day coefficient 1e-05 1e-05 1e-05 1e-05

Recharge coefficient 0.75 0.75 0.70 0.65

OPTIMA

WaterWare Modeling Studies:

Water Budget

OPTIMA

Four different scenarios for Water Resources Model are considered:

• Gediz Baseline with historical year of 1991 (dry year): GEDIZ_BL_1991

• Gediz Baseline with historical year of 1982 (normal year): GEDIZ_BL_1982

• Gediz Future 1991 (with two new reservoirs): gediz future 1991

• Gediz Future 1982 (with two new reservoirs): gediz future 1982

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

Economic Data Compilation

OPTIMA

BASIC ECO-DATA OF IRRIGATION DISTRICTS

Irrigation DistrictsFixed O/M

Costs (€/month)

Use Benefit (€/m3)

Shortfall Cost

(€/m3)

Variable cost

(€/m3)

Adala Left 21091 0.37 0.3 0.222

Adala Right 11716 0.29 0.23 0.174

Ahmetli Left 25537 0.46 0.32 0.276

Ahmetli Right 39963 0.30 0.23 0.18

Menemen Left 31406 0.19 0.12 0.114

Menemen Right 16040 0.27 0.14 0.162

Sarigol 3442 0.35 0.22 0.21

Alasehir 24107 0.66 0.43 0.396

OPTIMA

BASIC ECO-DATA OF SETTLEMENTS

SettlementDemand (m3/s)

Fixed O/M

Costs (€/month)

Fixed Pumping

Costs (€/month)

Pumping Cost

(€/m3)

Domestic Network

Cost (€/m3)

Use Benefit (€/m3)

Shortfall Cost

(€/m3)

Akhisar 0.16 7200 2400 0.027 0.009 1 0.1

Salihli 0.17 7200 2400 0.027 0.009 1 0.1

Turgutlu 0.18 7800 2400 0.027 0.009 1 0.1

Manisa, Center

0.53 16200 4800 0.027 0.009 1.2 0.15

Kemalpasa 0.027 3000 1200 0.027 0.009 0.9 0.1

Menemen 0.06 6000 1800 0.027 0.009 0.9 0.1

Saruhanli 0.015 1800 600 0.027 0.009 0.8 0.08

Golmarmara 0.013 1800 600 0.027 0.009 0.8 0.07

Alasehir 0.05 4200 1200 0.027 0.009 1 0.1

Ahmetli 0.013 1800 600 0.027 0.009 0.8 0.08

OPTIMA

RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS

AFSARBULDAN

MARMARA

DEMIRKOPRU

Bay of Izmir

YIGITLER

GORDES

OPTIMA

RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS

ANNUAL INV (€/year)

O/M (€/month)

Shortfall cost

Variable cost

Use benefit(€/m3)

YIGITLER DAM 2,531,851 149,975Industrial Supply 1,138,610 63,201 2.5872.587

Irrigation 1,014,431 26,409 -- - 0.2920.292

GORDES DAM 87,373,043 49,788

Domestic Supply

7,660,819 6384 1.251.25

Irrigation 7,477,686 115,226 0.10.1 0.10.1 0.30.3

OPTIMA

Economical Assessment of WRM Scenarios

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

Introduced Water Technologies To DB

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

Irrigation District

AreaAnnual Investment

Cost (€ / year)

Operational Cost

(€ / year)

Adala LB 6150 1,810,167 181,796

Adala RB 6300 1,854,318 186,230

Sarıgöl 1000 294,336 29,560

Alaşehir 7500 2,207,521 221,702

Ahmetli RB 14750 4,341,458 436,014

Ahmetli LB 14550 4,282,591 430,102

Menemen RB 5250 1,545,265 155,192

Menemen LB 14200 4,179,573 419,756

100% implementation

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

Irrigation District

AreaAnnual Investment

Cost (€ / year)

Operational Cost

(€ / year)

Adala LB 6150 1609 1304

Adala RB 6300 1648 1336

Sarıgöl 1000 262 212

Alaşehir 7500 1962 1591

Ahmetli RB 14750 3859 3129

Ahmetli LB 14550 3807 3086

Menemen RB 5250 1374 1114

Menemen LB 14200 3715 3012

100% implementation

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

Settlement PopulationAnnual Investment

Cost (€ / year)

Operational Cost

(€ / year)

Akhisar 81510 1331 1103

Salihli 83137 1358 1125

Turgutlu 93727 1530 1268

Manisa, Center 214345 3500 2900

Kemalpasa 25448 416 344

Menemen 46079 752 623

Saruhanli 13025 213 176

Golmarmara 11205 183 152

Alasehir 39590 646 536

Ahmetli 11011 180 149

100% implementation

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

Settlement HouseholdAnnual Investment Cost

(€ / year)

Akhisar 21507 645,198

Salihli 22903 687,083

Turgutlu 24094 722,830

Manisa, Center 57159 1,714,760

Kemalpasa 6362 190,860

Menemen 12288 368,632

Saruhanli 3240 97,201

Golmarmara 2541 76,224

Alasehir 10936 328,094

Ahmetli 2905 87,158

100% implementation

OPTIMA

Optimization Model and DMC Results

OPTIMA

OPTIMA

WORKS TO DO

Discuss and introduce new possible water technologies to be

used,

Running the optimization scenarios for other WRM scenarios:

GEDIZ_BL_1991, gediz future 1991, gediz future 1982

(copy function?),

Evaluate and disseminate obtained results with some

stakeholders like DSI (Another final ? Stakeholder meeting) in

order to let them review their constraints and expected

performance from the river system.

OPTIMA

THANK YOU!

optima optima optimisation for sustainable water resources management turkish case study: gediz...

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