Operational Great Lakes Ice Charts and On-line Climatology18th Annual Canada/US Great Lakes Operational Meteorology WorkshopToronto OntarioMarie-France GauthierCanadian Ice ServiceMarch 22-24, 2010

ContentsThe North American Ice Service (NAIS)Operational FocusIce Information and Data Integration Great Lakes Ice ClimatologySummary

North American Ice ServiceOur VisionTo create a harmonized suite of products and services for ice information for North American waters to serve the needs of users for safety of navigation and informed decision makingOur HistoryCanada-US Joint Ice Working Group (JIWG) meeting for about 20 years Signed a North American Ice Service agreement in June 2004

North American Ice ServiceGoalsSupport safe and efficient maritime operationsMeet national security requirementsDeliver ice information for numerical weather, ocean and environmental predictionSupport climate change researchProvide sound ice knowledge for decision making and policy developmentImprove national ice information quality and efficiency Provide national backup capabilities

Operational Focus Ice Information and Data Integration

Operational Focus Ice Information and Data IntegrationSATELLITE

(Same week in February, 2004)NAIS Great Lakes Charts

CISNICNAIS Great Lakes Charts Same Look & Feel Products

Operational Focus Ice Information and Data IntegrationMore than ice chartsIce warning and daily forecast: FICN19CWISSeasonal Outlook: FECN19CWISIssued once at the beginning of the season and update every two weeksCommon Production System POLARISLatest ArcGIS technologyVarious map projectionBetter ice modelsAutomated chart generationWinter 2010-11

Ice Climatology & ArchiveSea Ice since 1968Lake Ice since 1972Ice Graph Tool

CIS Archive

Great Lakes Ice ClimatologyWeekly Ice Coverage 2009-2010

Great Lakes Ice Climatology Historical Ice Coverage for Mid-March since 1973

Great Lakes Ice ClimatologyTotal Accumulated Ice Coverage - Dec. 4 to Mar. 12

Great Lakes Ice ClimatologyDeparture from Normal Total Concentration

Past Record Ice Conditions

MAXIMUM ICE CONDITIONS - FEBRUARY1979MINIMUM ICE CONDITIONS -MARCH 2002

Climate VariabilityTotal ice cover on the Great Lakes has shown an overall decline of ~15% over the period 1973-2009.Lake Superior has shown the greatest decrease in total ice cover (~20% over the last 37 years). Lake Ontario has shown the smallest decrease in total ice cover (less than 10% over the last 37 years).Last winter (2008/09) has shown that heavy ice cover years do still occur and that interannual variability is a big factor for ice cover on the Great Lakes.

SummaryThe North American Ice Service is closely monitoring ice conditions on the Great Lakes. Providing information for the safety of all in Great Lakes waters is our primary concern. Our suite of products includes daily forecast and ice chart, weekly climate ice chart, thirty day forecast, seasonal outlook and end of season summary.While winters with easier than normal ice conditions have been more frequent in the last decade, Environment Canada expects that a large annual variability in the ice conditions over the Great Lakes will continue.

Oldest Great Lakes Chart in the CIS Archive THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

So, how is ice monitoring done? Ice Monitoring is still a human based analysis of real time data which is used to generate daily ice charts and ice bulletins. The data is provided to the ice forecasters in a remote sensing/GIS environment and GIS is used to generate the final analyses and chart products.

As is demonstrated here, data used comes in a variety of forms from different sources including satellite imagery, ship and aircraft observations, weather data, climatological data and ice model outputs. In the background we have a Radarsat image over top of a NOAA Avhrr image. These images are actually from the winter of 2003 when there was a lot of media attention because Lake Superior had completely frozen over for the first time in a decade.

So all of this adds up to a lot of data, and under the NAIS (and even before) there are data sharing agreements that allow us to pass data back and forth between the centres.Here is are a few more pictures depicting how ice information can be gathered -

Satellite, Ship-Based Observations, visual recon from ship and land based helicopters and from specially outfitted airplanes.Here is a nice cloud-free MODIS image of the Great Lakes.Here is NIC Great Lakes chart, and here is a CIS Great Lakes chart. These charts are both for the same week covering the same AOI's, but they obviously have a different look and feel.We have a data sharing infrastruture in place that allow the forecasters at each centre to have access to the same source data, but as you can see here, the charts from each centre did not look the same. CIS produces the Monday chart and NIC produces the Thursday chart. Our goals, as stated earlier, is to provide our clients with a consistent, similar product so this year a lot of effort has been dedicated to harmonizing the great lakes charts.

Overcoming the differences in appearance is not so much related to data exchange as it is to production tools and processes and templates.

Let me say here that the Great Lakes has been chosen as the starting point for increased harmonization and cooperation between the centres. It is a closed environment, both centres support clients here, the US and Canadian Coast Guards actively assist each other. Just getting these products harmonized is no easy task as there are many operational and technical difference to overcome. But, this initial effort has facilitated harmonization over other NA regions.

In addition to providing daily ice information, the CIS prepare and issue climate products. The Regional Great Lakes Chart is produced every week in ArcGIS and the ice coverage information is being kept into a database. All the historical charts have been digitized and together with the near real time products constitute Canadas Great Lakes Ice Climatology. Climate products and tools are available on CIS Web site. Over the next few slides, I will discuss current ice conditions and compare with normal and previous years.Departure from Normal and a suite of Ice Cover products are produced in real-time with each new regional ice chart. These products can be used to depict the climate variability. Lowest year on record for Mid-March was in 1998 followed by 1983 then 2000. All those years are very close.Season 2001/02 was the lowest followed by 1997/98, 2005/2006.Departure from Normal Total Concentration charts are generated by comparing the current regional ice chart for each of the CIS regional areas to its corresponding 30 year median concentration chart. This bargraph shows the maximum ice coverage of previous years. From this product we can easily identify record years.The last time Lake Superior froze over was on March 5th 2003 - 97.3% of the lake was covered by ice. This year, by comparison, of Lake Superior was 8.23% covered by ice on March 5th 2010