Operational Great Lakes Ice Charts and On-line Climatology

18th Annual Canada/US Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop

Toronto Ontario

Marie-France Gauthier

Canadian Ice Service

March 22-24, 2010

Contents

• The North American Ice Service (NAIS)

• Operational Focus…Ice Information and Data Integration

• Great Lakes Ice Climatology

• Summary

North American Ice Service

• Our Vision– To create a harmonized suite of products and

services for ice information for North American waters to serve the needs of users for safety of navigation and informed decision making

• Our History– Canada-US Joint Ice Working Group (JIWG)

meeting for about 20 years – Signed a “North American Ice Service”

agreement in June 2004

North American Ice Service

• Goals– Support safe and efficient maritime operations– Meet national security requirements– Deliver ice information for numerical weather, ocean

and environmental prediction– Support climate change research– Provide sound ice knowledge for decision making and

policy development– Improve national ice information quality and efficiency – Provide national backup capabilities

Operational Focus… Ice Information and Data Integration

Weather

Previous Charts

Climatology

Operational Focus… Ice Information and Data Integration

ICE SERVICE SPECIALIST ON-BOARDICE SERVICE SPECIALIST ON-BOARD

VISUAL RECONNAISSANCEVISUAL RECONNAISSANCE

SATELLITE

(Same week in February, 2004)(Same week in February, 2004)

NAIS Great Lakes Charts

CIS NIC

NAIS Great Lakes Charts Same Look & Feel Products

• More than ice charts– Ice warning and daily forecast: FICN19CWIS

– Seasonal Outlook: FECN19CWIS

▪ Issued once at the beginning of the season and update every two weeks

• Common Production System – POLARIS

▪ Latest ArcGIS technology▪ Various map projection▪ Better ice models▪ Automated chart generation▪ Winter 2010-11

Operational Focus… Ice Information and Data Integration

Ice Climatology & Archive• Sea Ice since 1968

• Lake Ice since 1972

Ice Graph Tool

CIS Archive

Great Lakes Ice ClimatologyWeekly Ice Coverage 2009-2010

Great Lakes Ice Climatology Historical Ice Coverage for Mid-March since 1973

Great Lakes Ice ClimatologyTotal Accumulated Ice Coverage - Dec. 4 to Mar. 12

Great Lakes Ice ClimatologyDeparture from Normal Total Concentration

Past Record Ice Conditions

MAXIMUM ICE CONDITIONS - FEBRUARY1979

MINIMUM ICE CONDITIONS -MARCH 2002

Climate Variability

• Total ice cover on the Great Lakes has shown an overall decline of ~15% over the period 1973-2009.

• Lake Superior has shown the greatest decrease in total ice cover (~20% over the last 37 years).

• Lake Ontario has shown the smallest decrease in total ice cover (less than 10% over the last 37 years).

• Last winter (2008/09) has shown that heavy ice cover years do still occur and that interannual variability is a big factor for ice cover on the Great Lakes.

Summary

• The North American Ice Service is closely monitoring ice conditions on the Great Lakes. Providing information for the safety of all in Great Lakes waters is our primary concern.

• Our suite of products includes daily forecast and ice chart, weekly climate ice chart, thirty day forecast, seasonal outlook and end of season summary.

• While winters with easier than normal ice conditions have been more frequent in the last decade, Environment Canada expects that a large annual variability in the ice conditions over the Great Lakes will continue.

Oldest Great Lakes Chart in the CIS Archive

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION