nws science and technology 11/3/20151 leveraging goes capabilities to maximize response to user...
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Leveraging GOES Capabilities to Maximize Response
to User Needs
Leveraging GOES Capabilities to Maximize Response
to User Needs
Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science & TechnologyNovember 3, 2009 GOES Users Conference
Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science & TechnologyNovember 3, 2009 GOES Users Conference
SIXTH GOES USERS’ CONFERENCEMadison WI
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Stroll Down Memory LaneStroll Down Memory Lane
GOES 1 (1975): Imagery; cloud drift derived winds and temperatures; space environmental monitor
GOES 4 (1980): Atmospheric sounder added (temperature and moisture), but can’t image and sound simultaneously
GOES 7 (1987): Distress signals (testing) GOES 8 (1994): Flexible scanning, high
resolution images and simultaneous imaging and sounding
GOES 12 (2001): Solar X-Ray Imager
GOES 1 (1975): Imagery; cloud drift derived winds and temperatures; space environmental monitor
GOES 4 (1980): Atmospheric sounder added (temperature and moisture), but can’t image and sound simultaneously
GOES 7 (1987): Distress signals (testing) GOES 8 (1994): Flexible scanning, high
resolution images and simultaneous imaging and sounding
GOES 12 (2001): Solar X-Ray Imager
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Can’t Imagine Life WithoutSatellite Data
Sustained Real-time Observations of the Atmosphere, Oceans, Land and Sun vital to NOAA Operations and Research
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Lifeblood of Operators andResearchers
Detect, characterize, warn, track Hurricanes Severe or possibly tornadic storms Flash flood producing weather systems
Analysis and forecasting Surface temperatures (sea and land), winds, atmospheric
stability, soundings, air quality, hazards Numerical models: Data assimilation...radiances, soundings Ocean environment monitoring Climate monitoring/continuity Environmental data collection – buoys, rain gauges, river
levels, ecosystem monitoring
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What Excites Me About GOES-RWhat Excites Me About GOES-R
Possibilities for:
….greater high impact event warning lead times to reduce loss of life and property
….storm-scale modeling and forecasts critical to enhancing people’s lives and Nation’s economy
….improved solar/space monitoring and forecasts to mitigate impacts to vital national infrastructure assets
Possibilities for:
….greater high impact event warning lead times to reduce loss of life and property
….storm-scale modeling and forecasts critical to enhancing people’s lives and Nation’s economy
….improved solar/space monitoring and forecasts to mitigate impacts to vital national infrastructure assets
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But We Have Challenges to fully realize possibilities
But We Have Challenges to fully realize possibilities
Huge data explosionRapid data assimilation requirements (e.g.,
NextGen)—people, models
Demands on data management architecture
Data access on-demand within resource constraints
Huge data explosionRapid data assimilation requirements (e.g.,
NextGen)—people, models
Demands on data management architecture
Data access on-demand within resource constraints
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Other
Satellite
Radar
Model
NWS AWIPS SBNIncrease in AWIPS Database in GOES-R Era
w/NPP
w/NPOESS C1
w/GOES-R
w/NPOESS C2
w/GOES-S
w/MPAR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dai
ly-M
ea
n D
ata
Ra
te (
Mb
ps
)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Calendar Year
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But We Have Challenges to fully realize possibilities
But We Have Challenges to fully realize possibilities
Huge data explosionRapid data assimilation requirements (e.g.,
NextGen)—people, models
Demands on data management architecture
Data access on-demand within resource constraints
Integrating all observing data sources to achieve desired effect and outcome
Huge data explosionRapid data assimilation requirements (e.g.,
NextGen)—people, models
Demands on data management architecture
Data access on-demand within resource constraints
Integrating all observing data sources to achieve desired effect and outcome
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The Operational Environment Is Changing
The Operational Environment Is Changing
Speed at which decisions are made Demand for decision support services is increasing US industry needs the most accurate, accessible,
timely and reliable weather data to make critical decisions that impact our national economy Aviation weather impacts were $41B in 2007 U.S. modeling and data assimilation critical for giving the U.S. a
competitive advantage in the global economy
Federal deficits and resource constraints Integrated observations More efficient R-T-O (projects, modeling) Every dollar counts!
Speed at which decisions are made Demand for decision support services is increasing US industry needs the most accurate, accessible,
timely and reliable weather data to make critical decisions that impact our national economy Aviation weather impacts were $41B in 2007 U.S. modeling and data assimilation critical for giving the U.S. a
competitive advantage in the global economy
Federal deficits and resource constraints Integrated observations More efficient R-T-O (projects, modeling) Every dollar counts!
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Science Service Area
Key Products/Services
S&T Goal 2025Examples
Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples
Fire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% POD Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior
Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings
Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles
Aviation Convection Initiation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection
Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics
Winter Weather Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds Snow band formation and snow intensity
Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore
Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts
Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes
Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events
Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty
Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics
Winter Weather Winter Storm Warning 30 hour LT Snow band formation and snow intensity
Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore
Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts
Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes
Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events
Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty
Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter
>90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind
<5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models
1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems
Air Quality Predictions
Geomagnetic Storm Warnings
Tsunami Warnings
Wind Forecasts
Air Quality
Space Weather
Tsunami
Emerging Areas/Surface Wx
Why Are We Doing This…To Improve Services
Why Are We Doing This…To Improve Services
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Science Service Area
Key Products/Services
S&T Goal 2025Examples
Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples
Fire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% POD Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior
Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings
Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles
Aviation Convection Initiation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection
Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics
Winter Weather Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds Snow band formation and snow intensity
Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore
Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts
Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes
Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events
Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty
Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics
Winter Weather Winter Storm Warning 30 hour LT Snow band formation and snow intensity
Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore
Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts
Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes
Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events
Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty
Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter
>90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind
<5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models
1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems
Air Quality Predictions
Geomagnetic Storm Warnings
Tsunami Warnings
Wind Forecasts
Air Quality
Space Weather
Tsunami
Emerging Areas/Surface Wx
Why Are We Doing This…To Improve Services
Why Are We Doing This…To Improve Services
Our Next Grand Science Challenge- Huge Economic Impacts - Enable Warn-on-Forecast
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Why Are We Doing This…Save Lives/Economic Benefits
Why Are We Doing This…Save Lives/Economic Benefits
Service Area Improvements
Potential Benefits
Tropical Cyclone, Track,Intensity, Precip Forecasts
Aviation, Fire, and MarineForecasts
Flood and River Predictions
Air Quality Predictions
Space Weather
Seasonal Climate Forecasts forEnergy, Agriculture, Ecosys, etc
Tornado and Flash FloodWarnings
Reduce $10B/yr in tropcyclone damage
Reduce $1B/yr indamage from severe wx
Reduce $60 B/yr lossesfrom air traffic delays
Reduce $4.3B/yr inflood damage
Reduce mortality from50,000/yr from poor AQ
Reduce $365M/yr inlosses (power industry)
Reduce $7B/yr inlosses (drought)
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Integrated Observation/Analysis System
Integrated Observation/Analysis System
Analysis
Inventory systems,and metadata standards
Assess interdepend-encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality
Current
Individual Systems Public Private Universities
RadarSatelliteSurface; in-SituUpper AirEtc
StrategiesNational Mesonet
Network of networks
Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR)
Global Systems
Multisensor platforms
Optimization with OSEs, OSSEs
Standards, Architectures, Protocols
Maximize value of investment
Future
Weather Information
Database
Open Architecture
System B
System C
System A
MADIS
IOOS
Integrated Radar System
Rawindsones
Satellites
System B
System C
System A
MADIS
IOOS
Integrated Radar System
Rawindsones
Satellites
Exploit Strengths and Weaknesses of all Data to Optimize Capabilities Synergistically
GOES-R
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Observations and the CubeObservations and the Cube
WIDB Cube
CustomGraphic
Generators
CustomGraphic
Generators
Governmental Decision MakingGovernmental Decision Making
DecisionSupportSystems
DecisionSupportSystems
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
ObservationsObservationsNumericalPredictionSystems
NumericalPredictionSystems
PostprocessedProbabilistic
Output
PostprocessedProbabilistic
Output
NWSForecaster
NWSForecaster
ForecastingForecasting
Automated ForecastSystems
Automated ForecastSystems
Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration
RadarsRadars
AircraftAircraft
SurfaceSurface
SoundingsSoundings
Private SectorPrivate Sector
Private SectorPrivate Sector
Weather IndustryWeather Industry Private IndustryPrivate Industry
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Building a Road to the FutureBuilding a Road to the Future
GOES has proven its operational value
GOES-R is bringing exciting new capabilities
Significantly more robust enabling technologies and architectures are needed
Strong partnerships are an essential part of reaching NOAA Goals!
GOES has proven its operational value
GOES-R is bringing exciting new capabilities
Significantly more robust enabling technologies and architectures are needed
Strong partnerships are an essential part of reaching NOAA Goals!
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OverviewOverviewOverviewOverview
GOES’ Importance
Environmental and Customer Challenges
NWS Goals
Call to Action
Conclusion