NUCLEAR ENERGY PROMISE or PERIL?

Executive Editor

B. C. C. van der Zwaan

Institut Frangais des Relations Internationales, France

Advisory Editors

C. R. Hill Institute of Cancer Research, University of London

A. L. Mechelynck Huldenberg, Belgium

Q. Ripka (formerly) Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, France

V f e World Scientific w l l Singapore • New Jersey • L Singapore • New Jersey • London • Hong Kong

Table of Contents

Preface 10

Chapter 1 Nuclear Electricity - An Aide Memoire 12

Introduction 12

1. Basics 12

2. Thermal Reactors 14 2.1 The Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR) 15 2.2 The Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) 16 2.3 Heavy Water Reactors 16 2.4 Gas Cooled, Graphite Moderated Reactors 16 2.5 Water Cooled, Graphite Moderated Reactors (RBMK) 17

3. Radioactive and Fissile Products 17

4. Health Hazards 20

5. Further Developments 23 5.1 "Enhanced Safety" Reactor Designs 23 5.2 Plutonium Fuelled Thermal Reactors: MOX 24 5.3 Fast Reactors 24 5.4 Thorium Reactors 25 5.5 Accelerator Hybrids: "Incinerators" 25 5.6 Fusion Reactors 25

6. Resources for Nuclear Fission Power 26

7. Economics 26

References 27

Chapter 2 Preventing Climate Change: The Role of Nuclear Energy 29

Introduction 29

1. The Objective of Emission Controls 30

2. Selecting a Stabilization Target 34

3. Limits on Fossil-fuel Emissions 35 3.1 Other greenhouse gases 35 3.2 Carbon emissions 36 3.3 Non-fossil-fuel carbon emissions 38 3.4 Fossil-fuel emissions 39

4. Carbon-free Energy Supply 39

5. The Potential Role of Fission 42

Conclusion 45

Chapter 3 World Energy and Climate in the Next Century 46

Introduction 46

3

4 Contents

1. Energy Consumption and the Environment 46

2. Alternatives to Carbon Emitting Fuels 50 2.1 Solar energy 50 2.2 Geothermal power 51 2.3 Fission 51 2.4 Fusion 52 2.5 Costs 52 2.6 The optimum Earth temperature 52

Some Conclusions 53

Chapter 4 Energy Efficiency is the Key 55

Introduction 55

1. Development and energy demand. 57

2. Scenarios for the Future 59

3. How to do it? 62

Reference 63

Chapter 5 Problems and Prospects for Nuclear Power in India 64

Introduction 64

1. Milestones 64

2. Nuclear Power Programme 65

3. Lessons Learned 66

4. Environmental Aspects and Technology Development 68

5. Other Nuclear Energy Production Techniques 69

5.1 Subcritical systems 69 5.2 Fusion 69 5.3 Fast breeder reactors 70

6. How Market Forces Can Impede the Development of New Technologies 70

7. Influence of Capital 71 7.1 India 71 7.2 China 71 7.3 Indonesia 72 7.4 Pakistan 72

Conclusion 73

Appendix: Milestone Chart and Important Dates 75

References 75

Chapter 6 Energy in a Changing World 76

Introduction 76

1. Distribution of electric energy consumption 76

2. Energy consumption patterns 78

Contents 5

3. Energy consumption patterns for Germany 78

4. Energy for big, rapidly developing countries 80

5. Energy for least-developed countries 84

Conclusions 86

Chapter 7 Safety of Nuclear Power - Some Observations 88

Introduction 88

1. Relevance of "Defence in Depth" to the Three Mile Island Accident 89

2. History and Future of Water-cooled Reactors 90

3. Water Reactor with Passive Safety Features 90

Chapter 8 The Nature and Management of Nuclear Wastes 92

Introduction 92

1. General Background on Back-end Nuclear Wastes 93

2. Some Issues Related to Nuclear Wastes 97

3. The Management of Spent Fuels and of Separated Plutonium 98

4. Transmutation as a Complementary Option to Geological Disposal? 101

5. Waste Management in Relation to Long-term Nuclear Development and the Use of Thorium 103

Conclusion 103

Chapter 9 The Storage of Nuclear Wastes 105

Introduction 105

1. The Nature of Radioactive Waste from Nuclear Power Reactors 106

2. Existing Strategies 108 2.1 The regulatory framework 108 2.2 Low and very low level waste 109 2.3 Short-lived ILW 110 2.4 HLW and long-lived 1LW 110

3. Long Term Storage/Disposal / / / 3.1 Process modelling 113 3.2 The near-field 115 3.3 The geosphere 117 3.4 The biosphere 120 3.5 Summary: the state of repository modelling 121

4. Utilisation in Power Reactors 121

5. Transmutation and Sub-Critical Reactor Systems 122

Chapter 10 Spent Fuel Management 125

Introduction 125

1. The Energy Framework and Breeders 126

6 Contents

2. The Non-proliferation Issue 127 2.1 A US perspective 127 2.2 A European perspective 130

2.2.1 Historical background 130 2.2.2 The proliferation risk 133

2.3 All In My Back Yard (AIMBY) or Regional Centres? 134

3. Economic Considerations 136

Conclusions 136

Chapter 11 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Does Reprocessing Make Sense? 139

Introduction 139

1. The US Fuel Cycle 139

2. The French Nuclear Fuel Cycle 142

3. Criteria For Choice 143

3.1 Radiation and accident hazard 144 3.2 Proliferation potential 144 3.3 Economics 144

4. Nuclear Fuel Supply 146

4.1 When the breeder reactor? 149

5. Disposal Of Spent Fuel Or High-Level Nuclear Wastes 150

Conclusion 151

Chapter 12 Why Reprocess? - A UK Case Study 152

Introduction 152

1. Early Hopes for Nuclear Power 152

2. Disillusionment 153

3. Nuclear Power Retains its Attractions in some Countries 153

4. Tighter Controls needed on the Spread of Nuclear Power 154

5. Nuclear Proliferation - the Hidden Costs 155

6. Reprocessing and Waste Management in Britain 155

7. History of Nuclear Waste Policy in the UK 158

Chapter 13 The Disposal of Separated Plutonium Stocks 161

Introduction 161

1. The Issue 162 1.1 Weapons-Grade Plutonium (WPu) 163 1.2 Separated Reactor-Grade Plutonium 163 1.3 Reactor-Grade Plutonium in Spent Nuclear Fuel 163

2. Management of Weapons-Grade Plutonium 164 2.1 Options available 165

2.1.1 The US National Academy of Sciences Analysis 165 2.1.2 The US Department of Energy's two-track decision 167

Contents 7

2.2 Facing Reality 169 2.3 Priority actions 170

3. Management of Separated Reactor-grade Plutonium 171 3.1 General Background 172 3.2 The UK situation 172 3.3 The Belgian situation 173 3.4 Separated civilian plutoniura stocks 174 3.5 The Alternatives 174

3.5.1 Storage 175 3.5.2 Immobilisation and Disposal 176 3.5.3 The MOX option 176 3.5.4 Utilisation of UK MOX fuel in overseas reactors 177 3.5.5 Alternative fuels and reactor designs 177

4. Separated Plutonium Management: Comparing the situation in the US and in Europe 177 4.1 Plutonium Storage 178 4.2 MOX fabrication 178 4.3 MOX-fuel irradiation 179 4.4 Economic evaluation 180

4.4.1 In Europe 180 4.4.2 In the United States 181

J. Recommendations 182 5.1 Military weapons-grade plutonium 182 5.2 Civilian separated reactor-grade plutonium stocks 182

Appendix: Cost Comparison of Plutonium Disposal Options (A Numerical Example) 184

Chapter 14 The Disposal of Plutonium 185

Introduction 185

1. Weapon Plutonium 185

2. Building On Other Chapters In This Book 186

3. Prescription 189 3.1 Excess US weapon plutonium 189 3.2 Russian excess weapon plutonium 191 3.3 Disposal of separated civil plutonium 191 3.4 Spent fuel containing plutonium 191

4. Competitive, Commercial, Mined Geological Repositories 192

5. The Highly Enriched Uranium Problem 192

6. The Long-Term Future 193

Chapter 15 Fast Neutron and Accelerator-Driven Reactors 195

/. The Prospects of Nuclear Energy 195

2. Fast Neutron Reactors 200

3. Accelerator-Driven Systems 204

References 208

Chapter 16 Prospects for Accelerator-Driven Reactors: The Energy Amplifier 209

8 Contents

Introduction 209

1. Reactor Safety 210

2. Accelerator Technology 212

3. Thorium Fuel and Plutonium Reduction 213

4. Thorium Fuel and Non-Proliferation 216

5. Technical Obstacles 217

6. Waste Transmutation 219

Conclusion 222

Chapter 17 The Risk of Proliferation and International Safeguards 224

Introduction 224

1. Genesis and Development of the Non-Proliferation Policy 227

2. The Most Critical Threats to Non-Proliferation 228

2.1 Countries Non-Signatories of the NPT 228 2.2 Secret Facilities 230 2.3 Illegal Trafficking of Fissile Materials 231 2.4 Fissile Materials from Dismantled Weapons 232

3. The Safeguards System: a Barrier against Proliferation 234 3.1 The Instruments of the Safeguards System 235 3.2 Technical Limitations of the Safeguards System 235 3.3 Legal Limitations of the Safeguards System 237 3.4 Improvements in IAEA Safeguards: Strengthened ("93+2") Safeguards System 239 3.5 Preliminary Legal Amendments 239 3.6 The Strengthened ("93+2") Safeguards System 241

Conclusion 243

Chapter 18 The Risk of Proliferation: the Role of International Agencies 244

/ . Treaty Coverage: The NPT and Regional Weapon-Free-Zones 244

2. The European Union 246

3. The Zangger Committee and the NSC 247

4. The Evolution of IAEA Safeguards 248

4.1 The Strengthened ("93+2") Safeguards System 250

5. International Control of Plutonium? 251

6. The International Bodies Administering the CWC, BWC and CTBT 253

7. A Cut-off Convention 254

8. The Role of the Security Council 255

9. Some Conclusions 256

9.1 Nuclear threats 256 9.2 The IAEA 256 9.3 Chemical and biological threats and the need for a complete elimination of nuclear weapons...257 9.4 Co-operation between the verification agencies and the Security Council 257

Contents 9

Concluding Impressions 258

Global Energy Management 258

Health and the Environment 259

Nuclear Weapons Proliferation 261

Appendix: Technical Notesand Units 262

Introduction 262

1. Prefixes 262

2. Time 262

3. Mass 263

4. Temperature 263

5. Pressure 263

6. Energy 264

7. Power 265

8. Carbon and Carbon Dioxide 265

9. Energy Sources and Use 266

10. Economies of Energy 266

11. Radioactivity 267

12. Element Symbols 268

List of Abbreviations 269

Biographies 273

Acknowledgements 276

Index 277