ns 435 unit 2: impact of ecological changes on agriculture lei wang, ph.d
TRANSCRIPT
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NS 435 NS 435 Unit 2:Unit 2:Impact of Ecological ChangesImpact of Ecological Changeson Agricultureon Agriculture
Lei Wang, Ph.D.
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OutlineOutline
How Ecological Changes Affect Agriculture/Food Production?
Short-Term Effects Long-Term Effects
How Modern Agriculture Impacts the Climate?
Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?
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Food for ThoughtFood for Thought
According to Siikamaki, (2006) “Agriculture is frequently discussed in the context of climate change: not only is agriculture vulnerable to climate change, it is also part of the problem and its potential solutions.”
-Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture. Examining the Connections. Environment, pg(s). 36-49.
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Climate ContextClimate Context
According to Peter Backlund from NCAR, “Human activities have altered the global climate.During the 20th century, the global average surface T increased 0.6 C and global sea level increased 15 to 20 cm.”
-Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.
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Climate ContextClimate Context
“… human influences will continue to change Earth’s climate throughout the 21st century. The global average T will rise another 1.1 to 5.4 C by 2100. Which will result in continued increases in sea level and overall rainfall.”
-Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.
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Examples of Ecological FactorsExamples of Ecological Factors
Temperature
Precipitation
CO2 concentrations
Water availability
Change in pest populations, plant
diseases, and weeds.
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How May Ecological ChangesHow May Ecological ChangesAffect Agriculture/Food Production?Affect Agriculture/Food Production?
Drought/Flooding: (extreme weather events)◦Soil moisture/erosion, evaporation
Water pollution (i.e. agricultural run-off)Heat Stress w/ rising temps– crops,
livestockPollution levels (soil & H20)
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How May Ecological ChangesHow May Ecological ChangesAffect Agriculture/Food Production?Affect Agriculture/Food Production?
Increased pests, disease, weedsSome crops more sensitive to rising temps
(tomatoes– e.g.)Altered Food Webs (e.g. polluted waters-
marine food webs)
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Short-Term Effects of Climate Change Short-Term Effects of Climate Change on Agricultureon Agriculture
Some crops– may improve growing conditions- however, with continued temp increase (esp. Southern regions) some crops may not adapt.
- Northern regions may benefit most (since tend to be cooler.) e.g. longer growing season opportunity.
-- Possible to grow new crops/different crops.
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Long Term Effects & Climate ChangeLong Term Effects & Climate Change
Long-term effects of climate change are not fully understood.
Difficult to predict.
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Earth’s Future ClimateEarth’s Future Climate
A vast majority of climate scientists agree that Earth will warm along with increasing greenhouse gases. However, the effects will be far more varied than a simple and uniform warming over the entire planet.
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Earth’s Future ClimateEarth’s Future Climate
Translate temperature changes from a model into trends that affect people's everyday lives. A 2004 NCAR study found that, by the period 2080-99, American and European heat waves will be more severe, frequent, and long-lasting.
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Earth’s Future ClimateEarth’s Future Climate
Another related study found that frost days will decline in many parts of the globe by 2080-99. The largest decreases are projected across the northwest parts of Europe and North America.
Such a change would affect agriculture and tourism as well as natural ecosystems.
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How Modern AgricultureHow Modern AgricultureImpacts the ClimateImpacts the Climate
GHG emissions (burning of fossil fuels, manure, food transportation– e.g.)
Significant user of H20 resources.Significant user of land resources.
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How Modern AgricultureHow Modern AgricultureImpacts the ClimateImpacts the Climate
Livestock– methane emissionsFactory Farming- e.g. (produce large
amount of GHG)
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Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?
GMO’s– e.g. resistant to drought/floodingNew, more tolerant cropsMore irrigation, water storageAgriculture & Forests = GHG “sinks”
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Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?
Methane capture “tanks”Increase irrigation efficiencyFocus on locally produce foods– e.g.
Farmers MarketsImproved fertilization practices– e.g.
timing
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ReferencesReferences
Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land
Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.-Retrieved from:http://www.usda.gov/oce/global_change/files/SAP4_3/ExecSummary.pdf Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture:
Examining the Connections. Environment, pgs. 36-49.- Retrieved from:http://kucourses.com/ec/courses/24739/CRS-NS435-3407037/Unit_2_Climate_Change_and_US_Agriculture.pdf
Earth’s Future Climate: http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/research/climate/future.php
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