northwest power and conservation council slide 1 the 6 th northwest power and conservation plan...

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Slide 1

The 6The 6thth Northwest Power and Northwest Power and Conservation PlanConservation Plan

It’s About CarbonIt’s About Carbon

Tom EckmanTom EckmanManager, Conservation ResourcesManager, Conservation Resources

Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilNorthwest Power and Conservation Council

Presented at Presented at Bonneville Power AdministrationBonneville Power Administration

SECURING OUR ENERGY FUTURE SECURING OUR ENERGY FUTURE UTILITY ENERGY EFFICIENCY SUMMITUTILITY ENERGY EFFICIENCY SUMMIT

March 18, 2009March 18, 2009


Slide 2

Before I StartBefore I Start The Northwest’s The Northwest’s

Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Labor Force Has Labor Force Has Expanded RapidlyExpanded Rapidly

Bonneville’s regional Bonneville’s regional meetings revealed a meetings revealed a need for more need for more background on the background on the PNW PNW Energy Energy Efficiency NetworkEfficiency Network

Because . .Because . . .

It’s Not Easy Being Green.It’s Not Easy Being Green.

How A Kilowatt-Hour is Saved:How A Kilowatt-Hour is Saved:The Northwest Energy Efficiency Implementation WebThe Northwest Energy Efficiency Implementation Web

Bonneville Power

Administration

PublicUtilities

InvestorOwnedUtilities

Northwest Powerand Conservation

Council

StateRegulatory

Commissions Northwest EnergyEfficiencyAlliance

Energy TrustEnergy Trustofof

OregonOregon

RegionalTechnical

Forum

End Use ConsumersEnd Use Consumers

Markets, Markets, Codes & Codes & StandardsStandards

= = Policy Policy RecommendationsRecommendations

= Technical= TechnicalRecommendationsRecommendations

= Program= ProgramFundingFunding

= Conservation= ConservationProgramsPrograms

= Market TransformationPrograms/Projects

The “Plan”The “Plan”

= = Policy Policy

= Rate= Rate RevenuesRevenues


Slide 4

To Understand the Present, You To Understand the Present, You Need to Know Our PastNeed to Know Our Past

Why Is It So *&%# Complicated?Why Is It So *&%# Complicated?


Slide 5

What Happened AfterWhat Happened AfterLewis and Clark Left?Lewis and Clark Left?


Slide 6

The First Three “Eras” of The First Three “Eras” of Power Planning in the PNWPower Planning in the PNW

““New Deal” Mysticism New Deal” Mysticism (1930-1950)(1930-1950)– Politicians plan using “chicken entrails and crystal Politicians plan using “chicken entrails and crystal

balls” balls” legislatelegislate what’s needed and when what’s needed and when Engineering Determinism Engineering Determinism (1950- 1970)(1950- 1970)

– Engineers, using graph paper and rulers Engineers, using graph paper and rulers scheduleschedule the next power plantsthe next power plants

Economic Determinism Economic Determinism (1970 to April 27, (1970 to April 27, 1983)1983)– Economist, using price elasticity Economist, using price elasticity slowslow the the

engineer’s construction schedulesengineer’s construction schedules


Slide 7

Actions Taken in Response to Actions Taken in Response to “Engineering and Economic “Engineering and Economic

Determinist’s” ForecastsDeterminist’s” Forecasts Utilities planned and/or started construction Utilities planned and/or started construction

on on 28 coal and nuclear power plants28 coal and nuclear power plants to be to be completed over a 20-year period.completed over a 20-year period.

Native American tribes Native American tribes suedsued the state and the state and federal government over loss of salmonfederal government over loss of salmon

Environmental groups Environmental groups suedsued Bonneville Power Bonneville Power Administration over plans to turn the Administration over plans to turn the Columbia River into “Columbia River into “Wave WorldWave World””


Slide 8

Impact of Actions Taken in Response Impact of Actions Taken in Response to “Engineering and Economic to “Engineering and Economic

Determinist’s Forecasts and PlansDeterminist’s Forecasts and Plans

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

193819

4019

4219

4419

4619

4819

5019

5219

5419

5619

5819

6019

6219

6419

6619

6819

7019

7219

7419

7619

7819

8019

8219

8419

86

Year

BPA

Whole

sale

Pow

er R

ate

(Cen

ts/k

Wh)

Nominal DollarsYear 2000 Dollars

416% Rate Increase 416% Rate Increase over 5 yearsover 5 years


Slide 9

Reaction to Impact of Actions Taken in Reaction to Impact of Actions Taken in Response to “Engineering and Economic Response to “Engineering and Economic

Determinist’s Forecasts and PlansDeterminist’s Forecasts and Plans

Terminate or mothball 9 nuclear and 5 Terminate or mothball 9 nuclear and 5 coal plants at a cost to the region’s coal plants at a cost to the region’s consumers of more than consumers of more than $7 billion$7 billion. .

Motivated the region’s politicians, Motivated the region’s politicians, utilities, larger industries and public utilities, larger industries and public interest groups to accept the “deals” interest groups to accept the “deals” embodied in the embodied in the Northwest Power and Northwest Power and Conservation Planning Act of 1980Conservation Planning Act of 1980

The Evolution of Energy PolicyThe Evolution of Energy Policy

April 18, 1977 – Conservation means a cold dark house

President Carter announces we are engaged in the moral equivalent of war (MEOW)

December 5, 1980 - Conservation declared a resource equivalentto generation

President Carter signs Northwest Powerand Conservation Act

President Carter Awarded Nobel Peace Prize


Slide 11

The Fourth Era -The Fourth Era - Northwest Power and Conservation Northwest Power and Conservation

Planning Act of 1980 (PL96-501)Planning Act of 1980 (PL96-501)

Authorized States of ID, OR, MT and WA to form an Authorized States of ID, OR, MT and WA to form an “interstate compact” (aka, “The Council”)“interstate compact” (aka, “The Council”)

Directed the Council to develop 20-year load forecast and Directed the Council to develop 20-year load forecast and resource plan (“The Plan”) and update it every 5 – yearsresource plan (“The Plan”) and update it every 5 – years

– ““The Plan” shall call for the development of the The Plan” shall call for the development of the least costleast cost mix of resourcesmix of resources

– ““The Plan” shall considerThe Plan” shall consider conservation (energy efficiency) conservation (energy efficiency) its highest priority resourceits highest priority resource equivalent to generation with a equivalent to generation with a 10% cost advantage over power generating resources10% cost advantage over power generating resources

Mandated Mandated public involvementpublic involvement in Council’s planning process. in Council’s planning process.


Slide 12

Who Are Those Guys?Who Are Those Guys?

Eight Council Eight Council MembersMembers

Two From Each Two From Each PNW StatePNW State

Appointed by Appointed by GovernorsGovernors

Cabinet Level Cabinet Level Positions in State Positions in State GovernmentGovernment


Slide 13

How Has It Worked?How Has It Worked?


Slide 14

Utility Reaction to Council’s First Utility Reaction to Council’s First Plan Was “Mixed”Plan Was “Mixed”

Over the Last Three Decades Regional Utility Over the Last Three Decades Regional Utility Conservation Acquisitions Resulted in “Mr. Toad’s Wild Conservation Acquisitions Resulted in “Mr. Toad’s Wild

Ride”* for the PNW’s Energy Efficiency IndustryRide”* for the PNW’s Energy Efficiency Industry

0

50

100

150

200

250

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Conse

rvati

on A

cquis

itio

ns

(aM

W)

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Toad's_Wild_Ride


Slide 16

Nevertheless – We’ve Nevertheless – We’ve Accomplished “Mass Quantities”Accomplished “Mass Quantities”

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Avera

ge M

egaw

att

s

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

BPA and Utility Programs Alliance Programs State Codes Federal Standards

Since 1978 Utility & BPA Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Produced Almost Almost 3600 aMW of 3600 aMW of Savings.Savings.


Slide 17

So What’s 3600 aMW?So What’s 3600 aMW?

It’s enough electricity to serve more It’s enough electricity to serve more than the than the entireentire state of Idahostate of Idaho and and all all of Western Montanaof Western Montana

It saved the region’s consumers nearly It saved the region’s consumers nearly than than $1.6 billion$1.6 billion in 2007 in 2007

It lowered 2007 PNW carbon emissions It lowered 2007 PNW carbon emissions by an estimated by an estimated 14.1 million14.1 million tons. tons.


Slide 18

Since 1980 Energy Efficiency Resources Since 1980 Energy Efficiency Resources

Met About Half of PNW Load GrowthMet About Half of PNW Load Growth

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Cum

ula

tive G

row

th (

aM

W) Cumulative Load Growth w/o Conservation

Cumulative Load Growth w/Conservation


Slide 19

Energy Efficiency Is The Region’s Energy Efficiency Is The Region’s Third Largest ResourceThird Largest Resource

Energy Efficiency12%

Hydro55%

Coal18%

Biomass1%

Wind1%

Nuclear4%

Natural Gas9%

Petroleum & Pet Coke0%


Slide 20

Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been AUtility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A

BARGAIN!BARGAIN!

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

May

-96

Nov-9

6

May

-97

Nov-9

7

May

-98

Nov-9

8

May

-99

Nov-9

9

May

-00

Nov-0

0

May

-01

Nov-0

1

May

-02

Nov-0

2

May

-03

Nov-0

3

May

-04

Nov-0

4

May

-05

Nov-0

5

May

-06

Nov-0

6

May

-07

Nov-0

7

Whole

sale

Ele

ctri

city

Pri

ce (

2006$/M

WH

)

Levelized Cost of Utility Efficiency AcquisitionsMonthly Average Wholesale Market Price @ Mid-C Trading Hub


Slide 21

5th Plan Relied on Conservation and Renewable 5th Plan Relied on Conservation and Renewable Resources to Meet Resources to Meet Nearly AllNearly All Load Growth Load Growth

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

Cum

ula

tive

Cap

acit

y (M

W)*

Coal (ICG) (MW)

CCGTurbine (MW)

SCGTurbine (MW)

Wind (MW)

Conservation (aMW)

**Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) will change resource development schedule and amounts.accomplishments) will change resource development schedule and amounts.


Slide 22

Meeting 5Meeting 5thth Plan’s Conservation Targets Reduces Plan’s Conservation Targets Reduces Forecast PNW Power System COForecast PNW Power System CO2 2 Emissions in 2024 by Emissions in 2024 by

Nearly 20%Nearly 20%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

With 5th Plan's Conservation Without 5th Plan's Conservation

CO

2 E

mis

sions

(mill

ion t

ons)


Slide 23

The Region Is The Region Is ExceedingExceeding the the 55thth Plan’s Targets With Utility Funded Plan’s Targets With Utility Funded

Programs Alone!Programs Alone!

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005Target

2005Actual

2006Target

2006Actual

2007Target

2007Actual

An

nu

al S

avin

gs

(MW

a)

5th Plan Target

Bonneville FundedConservation (CarryOver)Alliance Programs(Utility, SBC andBonneville Funded)Bonneville FundedConservation

Utility & SBC FundedConservation


Slide 24

When Overall Market Changes Are When Overall Market Changes Are Considered, The Region Set An All Considered, The Region Set An All

Time Savings Record in 2007Time Savings Record in 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005Target

2005Actual

2006Target

2006Actual

2007Target

2007Actual

An

nu

al

Savin

gs (

MW

a)

5th Plan Target

Non-Programatic MarketEffects

Bonneville FundedConservation (Carry Over)

Alliance Programs (Utility,SBC and Bonneville Funded)

Bonneville FundedConservation

Utility & SBC FundedConservation


Slide 25

Why Worry?Why Worry?


Slide 26

Existing Power System Resources Existing Power System Resources Are Dominated by Non-COAre Dominated by Non-CO2 2 Emitting Emitting

ResourcesResources

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Sh

are

of

Dis

patc

hed E

nerg

y (

%)

Petroleum & Pet Coke

Natural Gas

Coal

Biomass

Wind

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Hydro


Slide 27

Total PNW Power System Carbon Emissions Total PNW Power System Carbon Emissions Have Grown Significantly Since 1990Have Grown Significantly Since 1990

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Actual 1990 Emissions Actual 2005 Emissions Simulated 2005w/average hydro

output

CO

2 E

mis

sions

(mill

ion t

ons)

~ 15 Coal Plants

~23 Coal Plants

Existing Coal Plants Produce 85% of Total PNW Power Existing Coal Plants Produce 85% of Total PNW Power System COSystem CO22 and Provide 20% of the Region’s Power and Provide 20% of the Region’s Power


Slide 28

The PNW Now Plans To Meet Nearly All Future The PNW Now Plans To Meet Nearly All Future Load Growth With Conservation and Renewable Load Growth With Conservation and Renewable

ResourcesResources

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

20072009

20112013

20152017

20192021

20232025

Dis

pa

tch

ed

En

erg

y (M

Wa

)

RPS Hydro

RPS Solar

RPSGeothermalRPS Biomass

RPS Wind

Conservation

CommittedWind


Slide 29

How Will This Impact the Power How Will This Impact the Power System’s Carbon Footprint?System’s Carbon Footprint?


Slide 30

Even If We Meet All Load Growth With Energy Even If We Meet All Load Growth With Energy Efficiency and Renewable Resources Efficiency and Renewable Resources

COCO2 2 Emissions from Existing Fossil Fueled Plants Emissions from Existing Fossil Fueled Plants Remain UnchangedRemain Unchanged

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sh

are

of

Dis

pa

tch

ed

En

erg

y (%

) Natural Gas

Coal

Biogas

Geothermal

Biomass

Nuclear

Wind

Conservation

Hydro


Slide 31

Meeting the 5Meeting the 5thth Plan’s Conservation Goals Plan’s Conservation Goals ANDAND State State Renewable Portfolio Standards Renewable Portfolio Standards Will NotWill Not Meet WCI CO Meet WCI CO22

Emissions TargetsEmissions Targets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Emissions from NorthwestSources

Carb

on E

mis

sions

(mill

ion t

ons)

Actual 1990 Emissions

Actual 2005 Emissions

Simulated 2005 w/average hydrooutput

Forecast 5th Plan Resource 2025Portfolio Emissions

Forecast 2025 Emissions w/RPSRenewables

WCI GoalWCI Goal

OK, So What’s The Answer?


Slide 33

55thth Plan Identified Nearly 4,600 MWa Plan Identified Nearly 4,600 MWa of “Technically Available” of “Technically Available”

Conservation PotentialConservation Potential

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

$10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $100+

Real Levelized Cost (2000$/MWH)

Ave

rag

e M

eg

aw

att

s b

y 2

02

5 Lost Opportunity Conservation

Dispatchable Conservation


Slide 34

Adjustments to 5Adjustments to 5thth Plan’s Plan’s Conservation Resource PotentialConservation Resource Potential Reductions in Available PotentialReductions in Available Potential

– Program AccomplishmentsProgram Accomplishments– Changes in Law Changes in Law

» Federal Standards for general service lightingFederal Standards for general service lighting» State Building CodesState Building Codes

– Changes in MarketsChanges in Markets» Improved “Current Practice” due to Energy Star, LEED, Improved “Current Practice” due to Energy Star, LEED,

Programs, Market TransformationPrograms, Market Transformation» Other Changes to Federal Standards (10 adopted, 21 Other Changes to Federal Standards (10 adopted, 21

under revision, and 12 with effective dates by 2014)under revision, and 12 with effective dates by 2014)– Changes in ForecastChanges in Forecast

» Less new commercial floor areaLess new commercial floor area» Lower industrial forecastLower industrial forecast


Slide 35

Adjustments to 5Adjustments to 5thth Plan’s Plan’s ConservationConservation Resource Potential Resource Potential

Increases in Available PotentialIncreases in Available Potential– Changes in ScopeChanges in Scope

» Distribution System Efficiency ImprovementsDistribution System Efficiency Improvements» Consumer electronics (TV’s, set top boxes)Consumer electronics (TV’s, set top boxes)» Irrigation Water Management and Dairy FarmIrrigation Water Management and Dairy Farm

– Changes in Data and TechnologyChanges in Data and Technology» Detailed Industrial Sector PotentialDetailed Industrial Sector Potential» New Measures (e.g. ductless heat pumps, solid New Measures (e.g. ductless heat pumps, solid

state lighting, 2 gpm Showerheads)state lighting, 2 gpm Showerheads)


Slide 36

Avoided Costs Are Forecast to Avoided Costs Are Forecast to Be Significantly HigherBe Significantly Higher

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

Wh

ole

sale

Mark

et

Pri

ce

(20

06

$/M

Wh

)

5th Plan

Preliminary Draft 6th Plan


Slide 37

Energy Efficiency is Still the Energy Efficiency is Still the Cheapest OptionCheapest Option

Assumptions :

Efficiency Cost = Average Cost of All Conservation Targeted in 5th Power Plan

Transmission cost & losses to point of LSE wholesale delivery

No federal investment or production tax credits

Baseload operation (CC - 85%CF, Nuclear 87.5% CF, SCPC 85%, Wind 32% CF)

Medium NG and coal price forecast (Proposed 6th Plan)

Bingaman/Specter safety valve CO2 cost

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Energ

y Effic

iency

Gas C

omb

Cycle

MT

Wind

(Loc

al)

Advan

ced N

uclea

r

Super

critic

al PC (W

A/OR)

Colum

bia B

asin

Wind

AB Wind

> W

A/OR

ID W

ind (L

ocal)

MT

Wind

> W

A/OR

Le

veliz

ed

Life

cycl

e C

ost

(2

00

6$

/MW

h)

Emission (CO2) cost

Transmission & Losses

System Integration

Plant costs

Draft 6Draft 6thth “Technically “Technically Achievable” Conservation Achievable” Conservation

PotentialPotential

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

< 0 <20 <40 <60 <80 <100 <120 <140 <160 <180 <200

Real Levelized Cost (2006$/MWH)

Ach

ieva

ble

Pote

nti

al by

2030

(aM

W)

Dispatchable Lost-Opportunity

55thth Plan Estimate Plan Estimate of Achievableof Achievable

PotentialPotential55thth Plan Plan TargetTarget

Draft 6Draft 6thth Plan Avoided Cost Range Plan Avoided Cost Range


Slide 39


Slide 40

Spring 2009Spring 2009

Your Comments and Questions WelcomedYour Comments and Questions Welcomed

1


Slide 41

Where Is It? Where Is It? Technically Achievable by SectorTechnically Achievable by Sector

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

<0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10

011

012

013

014

015

016

017

018

019

020

0

>20

0

Real Levelized Cost (2006$/MWh)

Tec

hnic

allly

Ach

ieva

ble

Pote

nti

al (

MW

a) DEI_Non-LOAgr_Non-LOInd_Non-LOCom_Non-LORes_Non-LOCom_LORes_LO

Residential Water Heating, Lighting, Appliance Residential Water Heating, Lighting, Appliance & Consumer Electronics Technically & Consumer Electronics Technically

Achievable PotentialAchievable Potential

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

< 0<10

<20

<30

<40

<50

<60

<70

<80

<90

<10

0

<11

0

<12

0

<13

0

<14

0

<15

0

<16

0

<17

0

<18

0

<19

0

<20

0

>20

0

Real Levelized Cost (2006$)

Tec

hnic

ally

Ach

ieva

ble

Pote

nti

al b

y 2030 (

aMW

)

Solar PV

Solar DHW

Microwaves & Ovens

Clothes Dryer

Dishwasher

Freezer

Refrigerator

Waste Water HeatRecovery Efficient DHW Tanks

Clothes Washer

Showerheads

Lighting

HPWH

Consumer Electronics


Slide 43

Residential Space Conditioning Residential Space Conditioning Technically Achievable PotentialTechnically Achievable Potential

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

< 0<10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90

<100

<110

<120

<130

<140

<150

<160

<170

<180

<190

<200

>200

Real Levelized Cost (2006$)

Tech

nic

ally

Ach

ievable

Pote

ntial by 2

030

(aM

W)

HVAC Supplement(DHP) HVAC HP Upgrade

HVAC HP Conversion

New MF - ShellUpgradeNew MF - ShellUpgradeNew SF - ShellUpgrade ResWX MH

ResWX MF

ResWX SF

Achievable Savings Potential - Retrofit - Cumulative by 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

<0 20 40 60 80 100

120

140

160

180

200

Cost: TRC Net Levelized Cost in $2006 ($/MWh)

MW

a

DCV Parking Garage-Retro

DCV Restaurant Hood-Retro

Municipal Water Supply-Retro

Municipal Sewage Treatment-Retro

Signage-Retro

LED Traffic Lights-Retro

Parking Lighting-Retro

Street and Roadway Lighitng-Retro

Exterior Building Lighting-Retro

Computer Servers and IT-Retro

Network PC Power Management-Retro

Pre-Rinse Spray Wash-Retro

Plug Load Sensor-Retro

Lodging Measures-Retro

Grocery Refrigeration Bundle-Retro

Duct Sealing and Repair-Retro

Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-Retro

Demand Control Ventilation-Retro

Controls Commission Complex HVAC-Retro

Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-Retro

Windows-Retro

Lighting Controls Interior-Retro

Lighting Power Density-Retro

Commercial Sector Technically Commercial Sector Technically Achievable Potential - RetrofitsAchievable Potential - Retrofits

Achievable Savings Potential - Lost-Opportunity - Cumulative by 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Cost: TRC Net Levelized Cost in $2006 ($/MWh)

MW

a

Signage-NR

Parking Lighting-NR

Parking Lighting-New

Street and Roadw ay Lighitng-NR

Street and Roadw ay Lighitng-New

Exterior Building Lighting-NR

Exterior Building Lighting-New

Office Equipment-New

Cooking Equipment-New

Packaged Refrigeration Equipment-New

Exit Signs-NR

Premium Fume Hood-New

Lodging Measures-NR

Lodging Measures-New

Roof Insulation-NR

Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-NR

Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-New

Demand Control Ventilation-NR

Demand Control Ventilation-New

Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC-New

Evaporative Assist Cooling-NR

Evaporative Assist Cooling-New

Controls Commission Complex HVAC-New

Variable Speed Chiller-NR

Variable Speed Chiller-New

Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-NR

Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-New

Window s-NR

Window s-New

Premium HVAC Equipment-NR

Premium HVAC Equipment-New

ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes-NR

ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes-New

Lighting Controls Interior-NR

Lighting Controls Interior-New

Daylighting w ith Window s-NR

Daylighting w ith Window s-New

Daylighting w ith Skylights-New

Lighting Pow er Density-NR

Lighting Pow er Density-New

Integrated Building Design-New

Commercial Sector Technically AchievableCommercial Sector Technically Achievable Potential – Lost OpportunityPotential – Lost Opportunity


Slide 46

Industrial Energy Savings PotentialIndustrial Energy Savings Potential

High-Efficiency EquipmentHigh-Efficiency Equipment– Cross-industry systems (pumping or lighting)Cross-industry systems (pumping or lighting)– Industry-specific (refiner plates in mechanical Industry-specific (refiner plates in mechanical

pulping)pulping)

Systems ImprovementSystems Improvement– Optimization, demand management, sizingOptimization, demand management, sizing

PeoplePeople– Operational & Business PracticesOperational & Business Practices


Slide 47

Industrial Sector Technically Industrial Sector Technically Achievable PotentialAchievable Potential

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

< 0 <20 <40 <60 <80 <100 <120 <140 <160 <180 <200


Te

chn

ica

lly A

chie

vab

le P

ote

ntia

l (M

Wa

)


Slide 48


Slide 49

Utility Distribution System Technically Utility Distribution System Technically Achievable PotentialAchievable Potential

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

< 0 <20 <40 <60 <80 <100 <120 <140 <160 <180 <200


Tec

hnic

ally

Ach

ieva

ble

Pot

entia

l (M

Wa)


Slide 50

Utility Distribution System Utility Distribution System EfficiencyEfficiency

What’s CoveredWhat’s Covered

System OptimizationSystem Optimization

Line Drop CompensationLine Drop Compensation

End of Line Voltage FeedbackEnd of Line Voltage Feedback

Home Voltage RegulationHome Voltage Regulation


Slide 51

Agriculture Sector Conservation Agriculture Sector Conservation PotentialPotential

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

< 0

<20

<40

<60

<80

<100

<120

<140

<160

<180

<200

Levelized Cost (2006$/MWh)

Te

chn

ica

lly A

chie

vab

le P

ote

ntia

l (

Ave

rag

e M

eg

aw

att

s)

Irrigation Water Management Irrigation Hardware Dairy


Slide 52

Dairy Milk Production Dairy Milk Production Conservation PotentialConservation Potential

““On farm” dairy milk On farm” dairy milk production is the largest production is the largest single use of electricity in single use of electricity in agriculture sector after agriculture sector after irrigationirrigation

New Measure for 6New Measure for 6thth PlanPlan– Current conservation Current conservation

programs are targeting programs are targeting savings from dairies, but savings from dairies, but no regional estimate of no regional estimate of savings potentialsavings potential

Average dairy uses 800 – 1200 Average dairy uses 800 – 1200 kWh/cow-yrkWh/cow-yr

There are approximately There are approximately 885,000 milking cows in PNW885,000 milking cows in PNW


Slide 53

Take This With YouTake This With You

Meeting Meeting ALLALL Regional Load Growth With Regional Load Growth With Conservation Conservation AND AND Renewable Resources Will Not Renewable Resources Will Not Meet WCI COMeet WCI CO22 Emissions Targets Emissions Targets

Technically Achievable Conservation Potential Could Technically Achievable Conservation Potential Could Reduce Projected 2030 Loads By Reduce Projected 2030 Loads By 4000 – 6000 MWa4000 – 6000 MWa– At the low end this would mean sustaining the current pace At the low end this would mean sustaining the current pace

of regional conservation developmentof regional conservation development

It Will Require A Much Larger (2x-3x) Investment In It Will Require A Much Larger (2x-3x) Investment In Cost-Effective Energy Efficiency and New Cost-Effective Energy Efficiency and New Technology To Reduce Our Carbon Footprint To Technology To Reduce Our Carbon Footprint To 1990 Levels1990 Levels

northwest power and conservation council slide 1 the 6 th northwest power and conservation plan...

Documents

conservation energy

energy efficiency resources

conservation planning

eras of power planning

politicians plan

era northwest power

nuclear power plants

half of pnw load growth