northwest wind integration action plan jeff king northwest power & conservation council june 27,...

NorthwestPower andConservation

Council


Council

Northwest Wind Integration Action Plan

Jeff KingNorthwest Power &

Conservation Council

June 27, 2007

June 2007 2NorthwestPower andConservation

Council


Council

Northwest wind power development

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Cap

acity

(MW

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High forecastMedium forecastLow forecastConstructionOperating


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Northwest generating capacity 54,600 MW

Hydro61%

Natural gas16%

Coal14%

Pump Storage1%

Nuclear2%

Wind4%

Biomass2%

Petroleum & Pet Coke< 1%

Operating

Under construction

Expected to be constructed in near-term

100 MW (area proportional to installed capacity)

Wind projects


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Drivers of wind power development• Federal Production Tax Credit

• Natural gas price uncertainty and volatility

• Concerns regarding climate changeWA, OR & CA restrictions on acquiring CO2-intensive resources.

• State Renewable Portfolio StandardsWashington (15% by 2020)

Oregon (25% by 2025)

California (33% by 2020)

• (Until recently) Favorable competitive position of new wind (w/PTC) vs. new fossil plants.


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Wind Integration Forum

W in d D a ta & Fo re ca s ting S ys tem O p e ra tio ns

W in d P ro je c t O p e ra tio ns R e g u la tory P o licy & C o s t R e c o ve ry

F le x ib ility A ug m en ta tion T ra n sm is sio n P la n n in g & E xp an s ion

T e ch n ica l W o rk G ro up

P o lic y S te e ring C o m m ittee

• Chartered as a Council advisory committee for a two-year period• Monitor, facilitate and review implementation of WIAP actions. • Actions are funded and otherwise supported by participating organizations• Semiannual meetings of the Steering Committee; bimonthly meetings of the

Technical Work Group


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Issues addressed by WIAP Phase I

• What is the role of wind energy in a power supply portfolio?

• Does the Northwest have the operational capability (“system flexibility”) to integrate 6000 MW of wind?

• What are the transmission requirements for 6000 MW of wind power?

• How will the costs of wind integration be recovered?

• Over the longer-term, how can the Northwest secure its wind potential in the most cost-effective manner?


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Key findings: Role of wind energyThe principal benefits of wind energy are energy-related:

• Displacement of fossil fuel emissions• Displacement of carbon dioxide production• Primarily through displacement of baseload natural gas plants• Reduced exposure to natural gas price uncertainty and volatility

Extreme heating and cooling events frequently are accompanied by region-wide high-pressure weather systems (i.e., stagnant air).

Wind’s capacity value probably lower than provisional 15%.Northwest utilities will need to rely on capacity resources

(hydro, thermal or demand-side) to meet peak loads.


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Wind generation declines during extreme temperature conditions

Wind Gen (% Nameplate) for Various Temperature regimes

(All hours 2001-2006)

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Cum Prob

Win

d G

en (%

Nam

epla

te)

All days

x<25F

30F>x>25F

40F>x>30F

50F>x>40F

60F>x>50F

70F>x>60F

80F>x>70F

85F>x>80F

x>85F


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ActionA1: Reassess 15% pilot sustained wind capacity value

(Adequacy Forum, underway)


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Key findings: System IntegrationWind energy behaves like negative load.

Not fundamentally different from managing load variability.

However, wind output is more variable and less predictable than load.

Integration cost is the cost of committing generating capacity for operating reserves and for managing hour-to-hour changes in wind output. Range from $2 - 16/MWh Low end: Diversified low (e.g., 5 – 10%) penetration within control area High end: Undiversified high (e.g., 20 – 30%) penetration within control area

No fundamental technical barriers to integrating 6000 MW.

Load growth and additional constraints on operation of hydro system will erode this capability.

Actual Wind Plant Output

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Wind Plant Output after Within Hour Integration by Control AreaBased on the Hourly Forecast

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Raw wind plant output >

Output following within-hour regulation & load-following

>

Output with storage and shaping >

System Integration Process


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Impact of wind on system variability

-4500

-3500

-2500

-1500

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3500

4500

1

Hours

Cha

nge

in L

oad

(MW

/hr)

Hourly load ramp net of wind output

Hourly load ramp

Actual Northwest loads, 1/1/04 - 1/7/04Actual Northwest wind generation scaled to 5000 MWStd deviation, load only: 1072 MWStd deviation, load net of wind: 1106 MW

Integration costs are small fraction of delivered wind energy cost

-$20

-$10

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Market cost PTC Net Cost

2006

$/M

Wh Net delivered

power costOperating reserves

Variable O&M

Transmission

Fixed O&M

Capital investment

NO CO2 cost or risk

No fuel cost or fuel price risk

Large transmission component

Large capital investment. Value of $, commodity cost & wind demand risks

Operating reserves for integration

Fifth Power Plan assumptionsIOU ownership30% capacity factor2010 serviceE. WA/OR locationCurrent costs are substantially higher

PTC acts as negative variable cost


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Integration actionsA2: Refine estimates of the cost and supply of wind

integration services (BPA and other control areas)

A3: Develop high resolution, chronological Northwest wind data set (BPA, NREL - funded for 2007)

A11: Evaluate costs & benefits of wind forecasting network (Forum - 2008 action)

A12: Implement ACE diversity interchange pilot (PAC, IPC, NWE, BCTC - underway)

A13: Improve markets for flexibility services (Forum - kickoff workshop 7/12/07)


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Key findings: Transmission• Existing transmission capacity can support anticipated wind

development only through 2009.• The current practice of relying entirely on firm transmission

capacity for an energy resource with little firm capacity contribution needs to be revisited.

• Additional development will require combination of transmission expansion and innovative “less-than-firm” transmission products

• Access to wind sites with higher capacity factors and more diverse generation patterns will lower busbar and wind integration costs.


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Transmission path constraints


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Path constraints are affecting location of wind project proposals

Interconnection requests

Interconnection requests (MATL)

100 MW (area proportional to requested capacity)











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Transmission actions IA7: Develop “less-than-firm” transmission products and

other means to improve efficiency of transmission use (BPA - underway).

A8: Develop plans of service for reinforcing constrained paths (BPA - underway)

A9: Develop approach to financing market-driven reinforcements and expansions (BPA - underway)

A6: Review and amend as necessary regulatory policies to support more efficient use of transmission (Commissions, OPUC lead - underway)


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Transmission actions IIA4: Develop transmission planning principles and

methodology for optimal firmness of service (NTAC - kickoff workshop 6/21/07)

A5: Apply technical planning methodology to identify least-cost transmission expansions (Columbia Grid & NTTG, 2008 action)

A10: Evaluate approaches to delivering wind energy from Montana and other promising but isolated resource areas (NTAC - 2008 action)


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Securing wind potential in the most cost-effective manner in the long-termA14a: Characterize demand-side, power generation, storage

and other options for augmenting system flexibility (Forum - 2008)

A14b: Improve understanding of tradeoff between competing uses of system flexibility (NPCC - 2008)

A15: Develop planning framework to optimize tradeoffs between: costs transmission expansion and resulting benefits of geographic

diversification of wind projects, and

costs of augmenting system flexibility

(NPCC - Sixth Power Plan)


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http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/Wind/library/2007-1.pdf

northwest wind integration action plan jeff king northwest power & conservation council june 27,...

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